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GM's thread about nothing (43 Viewers)

1) My unit size :oldunsure: is $70-100 for something i feel pretty confident about, $40-50 for sides and such. But everyone's unit size varies, it's just a nice way of not explicitly talking money. Some guys will, like Chainsaw and occasionally GooRoo.

Everything is relative re: odds. The best way to think of -375 is that the break-even % is 78.95% (use this). Let's say you're making 100 different $1 bets on an event that you think will win 90% of the time. 90 of your bets return 0.266 ($23.99), and 10 of your bets lose $1 (-$10). That's a 14 unit yield over 100 bets, which is pretty damn good.

Granted, at 78.95%, there's not much space between you and the ceiling. It's tough to find bets that are going to yield a profit at long odds like that. They're also pretty miserable from a psychological perspective, as there's only relief if you win.

2) Parlay odds depend on what you're parlaying. Parlaying two -110 games yields +260, but you can parlay all types of odds. People typically like to parlay a couple of underdogs to get a decent payout instead of laying $1 to win $.50.

Parlays are an accelerant: If you're making bets that normally wouldn't return a profit if you were betting them straight, you'll lose money faster if you parlay those games. However, if you are making +EV bets, you will win money faster with parlays.

3) 100x yes. There is very little homerism in the FFAWT. Everyone knows who everyone else roots for, but the rah-rah #### isn't really welcome in there.

4) *bonus*: Tail anything that GooRoo posts.
Good posting.

Anything GooRoo posts is +ev. Lumpy is the other guy who is generally sharper than most others in the thread (imo). Everyone has their thing tho... (modogg on UFC, GPJ on Soccer, etc etc)

Very poor form to bump that rn post. Normally you would get run out of the thread for crap like that but everyone was likely too drunk tonight.
I didn't make a big deal out of it. The regulars bust on each other all the time. The funny part is I didn't even bet on Baylor. The not-so-funny part is that it really didn't matter, as I lost almost everything else I played tonight.

 
This morning I was leaving for a meeting (8am I know right) and the neighbor dog that prompted this sign was pooping in my yard.

I'm in the middle of the street when I notice, so I open my car door to chase him(?) away. The mangy thing tries to jump in my lap as soon as I do. I'm yelling "go home damn it!!" and start chasing it down the street. I had to look like a maniac. :lmao:

Shit just got personal.
Is the dog's name Shelby?

 
How about our Dayton Flyers?
Hell of a game. Got drunk with a bunch of Dayton fans on Beale Street after the game. Tons of 'em out there. They've got lots of spirit. They almost beat up this hot little GatorChick.

 
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Just got back from taking the dog on a his morning constitutional. Come around the corner to go back into our driveway and he's nose to nose with an armadillo. The damn thing just stands there staring at him. No fear, apparently. My rock headed pooch decides to open his yap at that point, and the thing skitters maybe 5 feet away, tilts back onto its haunches, and does something with it's front claws that basically make it look like Mr. Burns going "eeeexcellent." Dog looks up at me like "WTF?!"

I almost want to adopt it now, even though it was tearing up my lawn/is probably rife with some kind of armadillo syphilis.

 
Kids have been gone a week. Wife has been gone since Saturday. They got home today at 5. Rather then resting and being responsively and reasonable, I channelled my inner Homer and worked from home the first three days of the week, watched three seasons of dexter, and generally got nothing done. I did, however, spend two hours before my shower this morning cleaning the house from top to bottom and getting the evidence* out of the house in time for the trash men.

*two twelve packs of keystone, 18 pack of coors light, 30 pack of frio light, plus four beers "leftover" from Friday. So, 76 beers in five nights.
Did you buy 5 singles 15 different times at the corner store ?

 
Just got back from taking the dog on a his morning constitutional. Come around the corner to go back into our driveway and he's nose to nose with an armadillo. The damn thing just stands there staring at him. No fear, apparently. My rock headed pooch decides to open his yap at that point, and the thing skitters maybe 5 feet away, tilts back onto its haunches, and does something with it's front claws that basically make it look like Mr. Burns going "eeeexcellent." Dog looks up at me like "WTF?!"

I almost want to adopt it now, even though it was tearing up my lawn/is probably rife with some kind of armadillo syphilis.
More likely, leprosy. Actually actually true.

 
What goes on in that lawyer thread? I'd check for myself, but I don't want to get sued.
Lots of blowhards obfuscating the point, I would imagine.
Is there minutiae?!? :excited:
No, but oodles of nuance

(Band name )
Awesome band name.

I can't even stand that thread (sorry, Henry Ford), but I keep going in there for some reason and then running back out.

ETA: It was worth it for HF's Fabio story, but I think he might have deleted that now.

 
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1) My unit size :oldunsure: is $70-100 for something i feel pretty confident about, $40-50 for sides and such. But everyone's unit size varies, it's just a nice way of not explicitly talking money. Some guys will, like Chainsaw and occasionally GooRoo.

Everything is relative re: odds. The best way to think of -375 is that the break-even % is 78.95% (use this). Let's say you're making 100 different $1 bets on an event that you think will win 90% of the time. 90 of your bets return 0.266 ($23.99), and 10 of your bets lose $1 (-$10). That's a 14 unit yield over 100 bets, which is pretty damn good.

Granted, at 78.95%, there's not much space between you and the ceiling. It's tough to find bets that are going to yield a profit at long odds like that. They're also pretty miserable from a psychological perspective, as there's only relief if you win.

2) Parlay odds depend on what you're parlaying. Parlaying two -110 games yields +260, but you can parlay all types of odds. People typically like to parlay a couple of underdogs to get a decent payout instead of laying $1 to win $.50.

Parlays are an accelerant: If you're making bets that normally wouldn't return a profit if you were betting them straight, you'll lose money faster if you parlay those games. However, if you are making +EV bets, you will win money faster with parlays.

3) 100x yes. There is very little homerism in the FFAWT. Everyone knows who everyone else roots for, but the rah-rah #### isn't really welcome in there.

4) *bonus*: Tail anything that GooRoo posts.
Good posting.

Anything GooRoo posts is +ev. Lumpy is the other guy who is generally sharper than most others in the thread (imo). Everyone has their thing tho... (modogg on UFC, GPJ on Soccer, etc etc)

Very poor form to bump that rn post. Normally you would get run out of the thread for crap like that but everyone was likely too drunk tonight.
I didn't make a big deal out of it. The regulars bust on each other all the time. The funny part is I didn't even bet on Baylor. The not-so-funny part is that it really didn't matter, as I lost almost everything else I played tonight.
:excited:

Looks like google alerts are working well this morning

 
I've been having an awful tourny on sides. I've been getting my selections 3rd party (and they're -6u so far). Frosty's props have literally saved me. To echo what a few others have said, I bet anything GooRoo posts at 2u minimum. Parlays are fun, but are dangerous and -EV. I tracked all of my parlays during football season and it literally costs me like -10u. So I just avoid them at all costs unless it's a free bet or if I've been overserved. I will place one $100 3-teamer in vegas once a year for fun though.

 
Beerhole updates?
:goodposting:

found out this week that the lake weekend with the car show crew is the same weekend as beerhole :kicksrock:

at this point I'm planning on choosing beerhole over lake house with strippers, but jeez of all weekends this summer, of course they both have to happen at the same time :wall:

 
Too damn rainy for hiking today. I've run up and down the stairs 40 times so far instead. :(

Slow work day; thinking it might be time to fire up True Detective. :excited:

 
Just got back from taking the dog on a his morning constitutional. Come around the corner to go back into our driveway and he's nose to nose with an armadillo. The damn thing just stands there staring at him. No fear, apparently. My rock headed pooch decides to open his yap at that point, and the thing skitters maybe 5 feet away, tilts back onto its haunches, and does something with it's front claws that basically make it look like Mr. Burns going "eeeexcellent." Dog looks up at me like "WTF?!"

I almost want to adopt it now, even though it was tearing up my lawn/is probably rife with some kind of armadillo syphilis.
I thought armadillos were fictional...like narwhals and Eskimos.

 
Just got back from taking the dog on a his morning constitutional. Come around the corner to go back into our driveway and he's nose to nose with an armadillo. The damn thing just stands there staring at him. No fear, apparently. My rock headed pooch decides to open his yap at that point, and the thing skitters maybe 5 feet away, tilts back onto its haunches, and does something with it's front claws that basically make it look like Mr. Burns going "eeeexcellent." Dog looks up at me like "WTF?!"

I almost want to adopt it now, even though it was tearing up my lawn/is probably rife with some kind of armadillo syphilis.
I thought armadillos were fictional...like narwhals and Eskimos.
Fred Schneider wasn't making it up, guy.

 
Just got back from taking the dog on a his morning constitutional. Come around the corner to go back into our driveway and he's nose to nose with an armadillo. The damn thing just stands there staring at him. No fear, apparently. My rock headed pooch decides to open his yap at that point, and the thing skitters maybe 5 feet away, tilts back onto its haunches, and does something with it's front claws that basically make it look like Mr. Burns going "eeeexcellent." Dog looks up at me like "WTF?!"

I almost want to adopt it now, even though it was tearing up my lawn/is probably rife with some kind of armadillo syphilis.
I thought armadillos were fictional...like narwhals and Eskimos.
Fred Schneider wasn't making it up, guy.
If you get this...you just might be old.

 
Beerhole updates?
:goodposting:

found out this week that the lake weekend with the car show crew is the same weekend as beerhole :kicksrock:

at this point I'm planning on choosing beerhole over lake house with strippers, but jeez of all weekends this summer, of course they both have to happen at the same time :wall:
Do they call you "The Cruiser"?
Cruiser
Fun fact: That guy played Joe DiMaggioin that crappy HBO "Rat Pack" movie

 
FRIDAY NIGHT POKER

Tonight, 10:00 PM EST.

Tournament 887600473 in the FFA Poker lobby.

$10 NL hold 'em tourney. Winners to be paid via p-a-y-p-a-l.

 

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