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Gold/Silver. Good time to buy? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ren hoek
- Start date
Epic Problem
Footballguy
wilked
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Actually so are a lot of other investors right now after 7+ years of disinterest, disdain, despair and disgust.
Fukushima took the bid out of yellow cake fiercely but it maybe time for a rally.
Hasn't silver been like $16/oz for 10 years? Can't figure that one out.
All in on the next big element price ascent.....Helium! Be curious if you guys are noticing shortages of balloons at party stores, dollar stores etc.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good time to buy cobalt again too, imo.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Fukushima took the bid out of yellow cake fiercely but it maybe time for a rally.
I'm still holding Denison mines.
General Malaise
Footballguy
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
If you are invested in the markets you should absolutely have some exposure to precious metals. They are a hedge against devalued currencies, geopolitical unrest, and act as a great safe haven for market uncertainty. There's an old saying that says "don't buy precious metals to get rich--buy them to stop from getting poor". I do think it's not a bad entry level currently. With that said--precious metals are a long term buy and hold. Also--if you are going to do it--don't buy mining stocks--just buy the physical metal (coins, bars, etc). Lastly--do not pay up for beautiful coins. Buy what you can at the lowest percentage above spot price possible. When you go to sell precious metals--most places make their offers solely on the value of the precious metal at the time--regardless of its a coin or a plain credit Suisse bar.
culdeus
Footballguy
Speaking from very light experience here, I looked into what it takes to unload bars and .9 coins and .999 coins on the market.
It's not easy. The buyers out there are not interested in paying anywhere near spot for your bull####. At best you will be looking at getting 85% of FMV if you want to liquidate in any reasonable timeframe. Then, the major buyers will treat most of the crap (at least the crap I have) as rare coins rather than bulk silver so anything over like $750 in sale gets reported to the IRS. And it's nearly impossible for me to show any sort of basis on this crap (May not be an issue for rest of yous).
I've even looked into what it would take to melt down some of the bulk coins. Just to clear that hurdle. It isn't too hard. If I could basically convert them into 1kg bars they might slide under the IRS radar 1 at a time, and command less of a commission.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
For me--I work in the jewelry business--so I have silver/gold dealers that don't play stupid games like that. My guys will pay me 99% of value for any gold and generally pay a little lighter than that for silver. My guys are in the Los Angeles area and I'm happy to give recommendations if you are from this area.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Can you elaborate here? Doesn't a silver chart pretty much only show the history of the spot price or do you have a chart that shows some kind of volume? Wouldnt the only way a chart could show you that there is a rally coming is if there was in fact a rally already in progress?
Gawain
Footballguy
Technical analysis of spot price, much as traders do for stocks:
Example 1
Example 2
Now, does either source know what they're doing? I'm not strong enough to say yes or no. But the technical stuff I look at seems to be in agreement that we're testing resistance at 14.20-14.50 before making a move to the high side.
It's interesting because a precious metal trades in a physical form for a significant part of volume on a daily purchase basis (unlike other commodities, where purchases are either locked in long term or people play the spread with 0% chance of taking delivery).
So the paper trades of GLD and SLV control the cost of purchasing from APMEX or your local coin store. It'd be the equivalent of the price of Minute Maid changing at your local Stop N Shop based on movement in the OJ future market. The premium on a bar is the cost of production/mint up charge, but the premiums on a non-numismatic piece are well known and static. Preppers and Zerohedge look for a decoupling of the paper price of precious metals from the physical delivery price as a sign that the paper trading (which many thinks keeps price deflated) market cannot actually deliver.
I'm not such a doom-n-gloomer, but I do like the idea of having some form of precious metals as an emergency fund that's very difficult to spend unless absolutely needed. I'm also very long gold/silver and think that once more in my lifetime there will be a selling opportunity like in 2008.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Same guy said a few weeks ago key buy level for him to take a gold long position was 1236. Then said key buy level was 1194 a bit ago. And now gold is at 1179.
I haven't found any dated silver analysis from him specifically on his page, but I bet if you look through that site (I have never been to it before just now) I bet you will find people saying similar things about silver at 15.20.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Can you show a long term range historically where having precious metals in your portfolio really would have been beneficial as opposed to just having a general market fund?
I know it is sexy to look back and see the price of gold at 300 and then at 1800 but is that any sexier than seeing the dow at 4000 and then at 24000?
When I look at the historical charts it seems you actually have to pick short term ranges to really get a solid enough benefit to offset the lack of liquidity involved.
Gawain
Footballguy
Perhaps the best known is Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
I'm not sure what the chart looks like from 2011-2018, I have to think that stocks have overtaken the permanent portfolio.
Oddly, gold probably wasn't the issue with the permanent portfolio over the past 7 years. ZIRP would really hurt the 50% allocated to government securities.
Using the data from here it looks like $100 invested in 2006 would grow to $226.31 at end of 2017 (rate of return of 10.5%) and $100 invested in 2012 would grow to $130.55 by the end of 2017 (rate of return 5.1%).
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You are probably right in that aspect--and I may have over simplified the point I was trying to make. There are some traders that enjoy buying a stock and look to trade it with days/weeks/months. When I say precious metals are a long term play--I don't mean that you buy and hold infinitely. A lot of people did not have the liquidity to survive the last bubble. They were over invested in real estate and stocks--and when the bubble hit--they got wiped out. The people that had the liquidity and wealth to make it through that market hardship ended up becomming more prosperous from it. They cherry picked the assets at very low prices and have reaped the benefits. Had those people that were over-invested in the markets/real estate had some precious metals to counter balance their investments--they would have had a better chance to survive the chaos. They could have liquidated those when gold was $1700-1800 per ounce to help make it through. Your point is absolutely valid as long as one has enough wealth to survive market turmoil--many people dont. Yes--the Dow being at 4000 at one point and 24000 now is impressive--but it has not been a consistent linear line pointing up. The moderate to massive drops along the way makes market survival a question mark to many investors. Precious metals are a bit of an insurance policy to those valleys along the way.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Jesus Christ, how long can we keep saying this? Cobalt is never going to be what we thought it could be. We had our chance with 27 but we never got it right.
-OZ-
Footballguy
astatine mining is the future.Actually so are a lot of other investors right now after 7+ years of disinterest, disdain, despair and disgust.
Fukushima took the bid out of yellow cake fiercely but it maybe time for a rally.
Hasn't silver been like $16/oz for 10 years? Can't figure that one out.
All in on the next big element price ascent.....Helium! Be curious if you guys are noticing shortages of balloons at party stores, dollar stores etc.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I dunno, we bought cobalt metal in early 2016 at $10.80Lb. It's $33/lb today after hitting a high of $44ish. Pullbacks can and do happen.Ilov80s said:
What did you think it was going to be?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yup. Helium prices are about to get very interesting.EYLive said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Have you seen the meme with Ron Paul dancing going "It's Happening!" with the biggest smile on his face?
https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/242631-doom-paul-its-happening
https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/242631-doom-paul-its-happening
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Good luck man. Long term that should be a nice investment. The government basically just agreed to print trillions of dollars in the past few weeks. At some point--you're going to be seeing some pretty massive dollar dilution and this should send the precious metals up. This pandemic has exposed that liquidity might not have been as strong as a lot of people expected--so precious metals will bounce a bit as the rush to take some profits and the rush to liquidity will likely occur. It won't be a straight line going upwards--rather a line that bounces up and down with an overall macro uptrend. The government cannot print silver and gold.
I wish people would have taken my advice from earlier in the thread as there were lots of people that were invested heavily in the markets but didn't have any exposure to precious metals as a counterbalance.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Party City about to go out of business, no? Stock under a buck.
Helium story still interests me. Funny how silver is still around 16 bucks. That's a LONG trend!
F U Cobalt.
cosjobs
Footballguy
yeah, anerican Eagle round used to be no more than 10% or so over spot. And I've gotten Gold Eagles for spot price. The disparity now is huge. I saw an auction this weekend and a bundle of 400 Silver Eagles was going for $25/oz, or $10 over spot. But if you want to sell they pay you spot plus bubkus.
I am unwilling to pay that juice over spot. Unsure when/if that spread return to normal.
I think its the market telling us that gold and silver are intrinsically more valuable than the current spot price and the dealers know that.
If I could actually buy gold or silver within 5% of spot, I'd fill my safety deposit box.
culdeus
Footballguy
What am I missing? Silver looks like it's at 17 and change?
Gold $1,728
Silver $20.22
Wish I bought a ton more silver back when it was around $12. But metals are looking pretty comfy going forward.
ren hoek
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
That seems to be price of a minted $1 silver coin if I'm looking at the right item. I don't think it reflects melt value exactly.
ren hoek
Footballguy
Goldman Warns the Dollar's Grip on Global Markets Might Be Over
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. put a spotlight on the suddenly growing concern over inflation in the U.S. by issuing a bold warning Tuesday that the dollar is in danger of losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.
With Congress closing in on another round of fiscal stimulus to shore up the pandemic-ravaged economy, and the Federal Reserve having already swelled its balance sheet by about $2.8 trillion this year, Goldman strategists cautioned that U.S. policy is triggering currency “debasement fears” that could end the dollar’s reign as the dominant force in global foreign-exchange markets.
While that view is clearly still a minority one in most financial circles -- and the Goldman analysts don’t say they believe it will necessarily happen -- it captures a nervous vibe that has infiltrated the market this month: Investors worried that this money-printing will trigger inflation in years ahead have been bailing out of the dollar and piling furiously into gold.
“Gold is the currency of last resort, particularly in an environment like the current one where governments are debasing their fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to all-time lows,” wrote Goldman strategists including Jeffrey Currie. There are now, they said, “real concerns around the longevity of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.”
Gold $1,960
Silver $24.54
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. put a spotlight on the suddenly growing concern over inflation in the U.S. by issuing a bold warning Tuesday that the dollar is in danger of losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.
With Congress closing in on another round of fiscal stimulus to shore up the pandemic-ravaged economy, and the Federal Reserve having already swelled its balance sheet by about $2.8 trillion this year, Goldman strategists cautioned that U.S. policy is triggering currency “debasement fears” that could end the dollar’s reign as the dominant force in global foreign-exchange markets.
While that view is clearly still a minority one in most financial circles -- and the Goldman analysts don’t say they believe it will necessarily happen -- it captures a nervous vibe that has infiltrated the market this month: Investors worried that this money-printing will trigger inflation in years ahead have been bailing out of the dollar and piling furiously into gold.
“Gold is the currency of last resort, particularly in an environment like the current one where governments are debasing their fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to all-time lows,” wrote Goldman strategists including Jeffrey Currie. There are now, they said, “real concerns around the longevity of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.”
Gold $1,960
Silver $24.54
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Congrats GB. You’re starting to see the early signs of the dollar cracking. As long as the fed keeps the printing presses on, I think you are looking at a macro bullish trend for gold and silver
ren hoek
Footballguy
Congrats to you too- it’s bittersweet in a sense, because it generally means bad things are on the way for the US economy. I assumed you must be the bigtime stacker on the board.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Yeah--- I think the "real" economy and small business is in huge trouble. For many years now--our government and politicians made a decision to sacrifice the working class in favor of the investing and large business class. They've kept working wages down while the cost of living continues to go up--and the fed running the printing presses day and night since the economic bubble through multiple phases of quantitative easing, keeping the dollar cheap through dropping interest rates are all taking us down a path to a point where the dollar is losing more and more credibility and value every day. For decades we were lucky that other countres respected the dollar enough to where we could just print some up and send it to them in exchange for goods and services. Now that they see that we arbitrarily print it when we want to no end--it only takes one country to question if the US dollar really should be the reserve currency for the world. That's why I've really been on the gold and silver train for a while. I probably have the greatest percentage of my investments portfolio's value in gold and silver versus anybody else in the forum--but by no means would I consider myself "big time". Lol. 25-30% of the value of my portfolio is probably the equivalent of 2% of the portofolio values of a lot of the members here. Lol
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