If you want the market to shift, the NFL would have to move away from the pass happy league it is now. Did anyone cry when fullbacks were phased out of the game? Fact is, very few teams rely on a workhorse RB anymore and they can just load up on mid-round rookies and low priced camp cuts and still build championship caliber teams.
Exactly. I don't remember anyone looking to solve the pay scale "problem" for fullbacks. It was the game evolving. The whole thing is honestly kind of fascinating.
The full back position, ceased to exist, because people actually stopped using them.
RBs touch the ball at the 2nd highest rate of any position. They have not been phased out of the NFL. This "evolution" is just a shift in pass:run ratios. I'd hardly quantify that as an actual evolution, just an adaptation.
If teams start going 5 wide and empty backfields at a significant rate, then we can compare the evolution of the positions.
Until then these are not really comparable, in my opinion.
There's also 2 other angles why I don't think this rebuttal holds water.
1: If the NFL is evolving, why are they still drafting RBs in the 1st round?
2: The pass:run ratio are slightly skewed, because the top tier RBs CATCH passes. Using a "pass happy league" mentality against RBs when guys like Ekeler lead their team in almost every receiving stat last year, where's the logic that RB isn't valuable?
It's not fair to use their passing game skill as evidence against them.
If you want to say the market for 2 down backs is dying due to the shift, I'll agree with you. But when Ekeler, CMC, and Barkley are the entire offense on the ground AND through the air, then it doesn't seem like a good faith argument.
Rhamondre, Fournette, Kamara, Mixon, Jones are all flirting with 80 targets a year. The RB position has evolved with the pass happy league, so that dual threat RBs are still just as valuable as they were. That's why the top RBs (JT, Barkley, Ekeler, Jacobs) are the loudest right now, because they aren't old school ground and pound running backs. They are evolved RBs who do everything and deserve to be paid accordingly.
2 down backs are being phased out, devalued, etc but guys like I just listed are NOT replaceable with 7th round picks.
Not every team has a Mahomes. I don't see anyone saying WRs are useless because Mahomes just won a SB without any, so why the same logic used against RB? Funny part of this contradiction? Jerick McKinnon is a 3rd round RB and was basically the WR2 for the team from the RB position.
McKinnon had more reception TDs than Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill last year. Using the Chiefs to argue that championship teams don't need RBs, or that they aren't important, or why a guy like CMC, Ekeler, Barkley shouldn't get paid is flawed logic. Those guy's do Pacheco's job and McKinnon's at the same time.
Those guys may do Pacheco's job and McKinnon's at the same time, but Pacheco and McKinnon only make a little over $2mil combined. And if one or both of them get hurt, or decide they aren't happy and want to sit out or leave town, they'll get someone else to take their place cheaply and not skip a beat.
There are very few RBs who are true difference makers- why put all your eggs into 1 super expensive basket when you can have 2 (or 3) baskets for a fraction of the cost?
Because rosters are limited to 53.
You're not wrong (obviously the committee system is alive and well) but keeping 2-3 RBs to do 1 means job, means you lose 1-3 spots somewhere else. You then need a back up for both of those roles, right? A 2 down back and a CoP pass catcher. Who do you lose? A 3rd QB, kick returner, special teams player, linemen depth... Everything comes at a cost in the big picture. It's not just 1 RB vs 2 like we want to make it out to be. It's never that simple.
And let's not allow everyone to shift the narrative. I'm at work, but go look at all of the highest odds SB favorite teams. KC used a first on CEH right? I know he was a bust, but they thought a 1st round RB was the path to reach their SB dreams. McKinnon is a 3rd round pick.
9ers went and got CMC. (1st)
Eagles went out and got Swift (early 2nd)
Bengals drafted Mixon in the 2nd
Bills drafted Cook in the 2nd, Moss in the 3rd, Singletary in the 3rd.
The notion these teams have completely given up on RBs and are using some FA scrubs doesn't really hold up in my opinion. Not yet anyways. But I think they're trying to artificially get there. If you can force Fournette, Hunt, Zeke, Cook to be on the street and put them against each other to take minimal deals... now you can do both, because you artificially put talent on the scrap heap and then use supply and demand to force them to take cheap deals. Teams are saying "we don't wanna pay" but they still want to USE those backs, so there is still some leverage.
Like I said, I understand the shift the NFL is undergoing, I just think it's a self fulfilling prophecy. If RBs don't have a good career to start, they can't get paid. If you do start your career well, you're worn out and can't get paid. No matter what path a RBs career goes, they're at the mercy, and I believe that's because they don't hit the market until their peak has passed and teams were able to run them into the ground. If the RB is lucky to peak in their 4th season setting them up for maximum leverage... Teams just say "nah you're stuck with us", and then reset the RB back to square 1. If you don't do well in your franchise year, no one is going to give you big contract. If you ball out in your franchise year, we'll, you're too worn down and your best years are behind you...
I support a free market. Let the RBs hit the market when they're peaking like QBs/WRs/TEs and do not allow teams to deny negotiations for salary... And I guarantee you the market self corrects. Watch how much the Giants approach changes when Barkley is free to sign with the Eagles instead of Swift.
It's basically economics. If you deny a RB, or any employee, the ability to seek employment from the only other 31 places of employment, you artificially erase 'demand' in the market, leaving only supply. How could anyone possibly negotiate a fair contract for themselves when 1 side can deny you any opportunity to work anywhere else?
If the franchise tag disappears, and teams still refuse to pay RBs in their prime, then I'll believe the narrative. But I'm betting 3 year rookie contracts and no 5th year option or franchise exploits, would immediately alter the market.
I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.