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Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (4 Viewers)

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The 2015 framework & the 2016 agreement had rules to limit the number centrifuges, the types of centrifuges (Gen 1 yes Gen 2 & 3 no), how much fuel they stockpiled, and the enrichment levels. For medical and energy purposes it needs to be enriched to 3.67%.

Apparently the stockpile they have now is enriched to 60%, and could be further enriched. Weapons grade is 90%. It’s speculated they could achieve that in months.

Then again, they were weeks away in 2011, 2012, 2015….
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (which is heavily pro-Israel) that the majority of the population (around 80%) in Iran is opposed to the current government. I have no idea if polls like this are accurate (I'd imagine it's nearly impossible to get accurate polling information on a topic like this) but this link points to a similar position. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202302036145. Again I have no idea if that site is accurate.
Your second link is about a poll done in December 2022, so 2 years and 6 months ago. With their country under heavy military attack I'd guess the support level for the government is higher now than it was then.
IF the original poll was accurate in the first place. It was pretty simplistic:

“In response to the question “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” 81% of respondents inside the country responded “No” to the Islamic Republic, 15% responded “Yes,” and 4% were not sure.

Yes. I'm sure it was a simplistic poll. I can't imagine how difficult it would be to get that kind of information.

And as I said, I have no idea of the accuracy.
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (
Joe, this is Bari Weiss.

Yes. She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts with lots of experience on the topic. I linked to the podcast if anyone wanted to hear for themselves.

My only point from the podcast was in relation to the opinion of Iranian people toward their government. That seemed relevant to the post I responded to.
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (
Joe, this is Bari Weiss.

Yes. She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts with lots of experience on the topic. I linked to the podcast if anyone wanted to hear for themselves.

My only point from the podcast was in relation to the opinion of Iranian people toward their government. That seemed relevant to the post I responded to.
As a counter to her podcast, i suggest the Drop Site News podcast.


Breaking Points has interesting people on for intereviews as well.

I've been a fan of Jeremy Scahill since reading Blackwater and Dirty Wars. He paired up with Ryan Grim (on breaking points as well) to form Drop Site. There have been some eye opening interviews and reporting there.
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (
Joe, this is Bari Weiss.

Yes. She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts with lots of experience on the topic. I linked to the podcast if anyone wanted to hear for themselves.

My only point from the podcast was in relation to the opinion of Iranian people toward their government. That seemed relevant to the post I responded to.
As a counter to her podcast, i suggest the Drop Site News podcast.


Breaking Points has interesting people on for intereviews as well.

I've been a fan of Jeremy Scahill since reading Blackwater and Dirty Wars. He paired up with Ryan Grim (on breaking points as well) to form Drop Site. There have been some eye opening interviews and reporting there.

Thanks. I'm sure those are great. Wasn't trying to get into counters. I was just commenting on the post that mentioned how the Iranian people might be seeing this and citing a source for where I heard it as I ask people to do.
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (
Joe, this is Bari Weiss.

Yes. She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts with lots of experience on the topic. I linked to the podcast if anyone wanted to hear for themselves.

My only point from the podcast was in relation to the opinion of Iranian people toward their government. That seemed relevant to the post I responded to.
As a counter to her podcast, i suggest the Drop Site News podcast.


Breaking Points has interesting people on for intereviews as well.

I've been a fan of Jeremy Scahill since reading Blackwater and Dirty Wars. He paired up with Ryan Grim (on breaking points as well) to form Drop Site. There have been some eye opening interviews and reporting there.

Thanks. I'm sure those are great. I was just commenting on the post that mentioned how the Iranian people might be seeing this and citing a source for where I heard it as I ask people to do.
I get that, it was also a general suggestion for people reading. Its hard to find opposing views, and imo they offer a good source of them.

I personally prefer podcasts like Free Press, Drop Site and others. They at least do a good job of asking questions and letting people explain their position. You dont get that through most articles we can read.
 
Agreed. I have no idea if it's accurate, but I'd heard listening to a podcast by The Free Press (
Joe, this is Bari Weiss.

Yes. She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts with lots of experience on the topic. I linked to the podcast if anyone wanted to hear for themselves.

My only point from the podcast was in relation to the opinion of Iranian people toward their government. That seemed relevant to the post I responded to.
As a counter to her podcast, i suggest the Drop Site News podcast.


Breaking Points has interesting people on for intereviews as well.

I've been a fan of Jeremy Scahill since reading Blackwater and Dirty Wars. He paired up with Ryan Grim (on breaking points as well) to form Drop Site. There have been some eye opening interviews and reporting there.

Thanks. I'm sure those are great. I was just commenting on the post that mentioned how the Iranian people might be seeing this and citing a source for where I heard it as I ask people to do.
I get that, it was also a general suggestion for people reading. Its hard to find opposing views, and imo they offer a good source of them.

I personally prefer podcasts like Free Press, Drop Site and others. They at least do a good job of asking questions and letting people explain their position. You dont get that through most articles we can read.

Thanks GB. Agree for sure on different viewpoints.
 
She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts
Sorry, I don’t mean to give you a hard time or needle, promise. When I go to that link I see a discussion with Eli Lake, Michael Doran & Matt Continetti (& a journalist). The 1st three at least are hard core pundits, they’re partisans. Doran was NSC with Bush 43, so there’s that but that was a long time ago now. Doran is definitely an expert but he was also a person who was specifically part of the team that led us into Iraq. I’m not giving you a hard time, I’m not causing problems, I just want you to think about these things.
 
She interviewed 5 or 6 Middle Eastern experts
Sorry, I don’t mean to give you a hard time or needle, promise. When I go to that link I see a discussion with Eli Lake, Michael Doran & Matt Continetti (& a journalist). The 1st three at least are hard core pundits, they’re partisans. Doran was NSC with Bush 43, so there’s that but that was a long time ago now. Doran is definitely an expert but he was also a person who was specifically part of the team that led us into Iraq. I’m not giving you a hard time, I’m not causing problems, I just want you to think about these things.

For sure. I know who they are and I assure you I do think about things and that's why I linked to the podcast and noted they were pro-Israel. I'm not promoting the podcast - I mentioned it only as that's where I'd heard the talk that 80% of the Iranian people were opposed to the current government. I googled and found another poll that was similar. I only mentioned the specific podcast as I ask people to give links to where they mention hearing things.
 
This appears to be good news:

Israel-Iran live: Trump claims a 'total ceasefire' has been agreed between Israel and Iran.
Analysis: Is Trump jumping the gun with ceasefire claim?

Barely six hours after Iran launched missiles towards a US base in Qatar, Donald Trump has said Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire - see the post below this one. It appears to have allayed concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, our US correspondent Mark Stone has said.

"He clearly has spoken, we assume, to Benjamin Netanyahu, who has agreed, that within six hours, the Israelis will stop bombing Iran," Stone said. "The Iranians, presumably, although we don't know, will do the same. Donald Trump has a tendency of jumping the gun, sort of jumping people into falling in line with his position. This may be one of those instances. But the tone of his message there certainly suggests that if both sides don't fall into line and effectively do what he is demanding, then all hell will break loose."
 
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The math ain't mathin' for me on this retaliation. I don't know how anyone here has any confidence in what the Iranian colle tive view of their leadership is, but put that to the side and assume it's true that 80% don't like their leadership.

How is it saving face with those who hate you to bomb someone else like that? Yes, I have way too much time on my hands having graduated and waiting to start new job.
 
The 2015 framework & the 2016 agreement had rules to limit the number centrifuges, the types of centrifuges (Gen 1 yes Gen 2 & 3 no), how much fuel they stockpiled, and the enrichment levels. For medical and energy purposes it needs to be enriched to 3.67%.

Apparently the stockpile they have now is enriched to 60%, and could be further enriched. Weapons grade is 90%. It’s speculated they could achieve that in months.

Then again, they were weeks away in 2011, 2012, 2015….

Also when you look at the timeline of their program, some of their jumps in efforts came after we decided to opt of our JCPOA and other current talks? I think there is an argument to be made that we had some proof of success that way. We will see how the war way will go, but already we admit we don't know how set back the program is or where the materials are.
 
The math ain't mathin' for me on this retaliation. I don't know how anyone here has any confidence in what the Iranian colle tive view of their leadership is, but put that to the side and assume it's true that 80% don't like their leadership.

How is it saving face with those who hate you to bomb someone else like that? Yes, I have way too much time on my hands having graduated and waiting to start new job.
Occam's razor to me is just that they really cannot do much more than that. Their abilities to hit targets in Israel without interceptions seems to have really fallen off since this all started. US and Israel have control of most of their airspace. Their regional allies are pretty decimated.
 
The math ain't mathin' for me on this retaliation. I don't know how anyone here has any confidence in what the Iranian colle tive view of their leadership is, but put that to the side and assume it's true that 80% don't like their leadership.

How is it saving face with those who hate you to bomb someone else like that? Yes, I have way too much time on my hands having graduated and waiting to start new job.
Because in their history books they "attacked" America and didn't just get punched in the mouth and quit.
 
With a ceasefire in place, that lets be honest, can be broken at anytime, hopefully we can apply some political pressure to get an Iran nuclear deal that makes sense. One that doesn't cost us money and has some accountability. If we can, this entire thing kinda worked out decently from our countries perspective. Imo
 
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hopefully we can apply some political pressure to get an Iran nuclear deal that makes sense.
but they keep breaking it so why make a deal at all?

enough for nuclear power plants and that's all they should need
Well. Right out of the gate the fact that two countries just bombed the hell out of them should change the tone a bit. Our past deals have been really bad and just seemed to be forced to get something on the books. Time will tell I guess. I'm hopeful.
 
The math ain't mathin' for me on this retaliation. I don't know how anyone here has any confidence in what the Iranian colle tive view of their leadership is, but put that to the side and assume it's true that 80% don't like their leadership.

How is it saving face with those who hate you to bomb someone else like that? Yes, I have way too much time on my hands having graduated and waiting to start new job.
Occam's razor to me is just that they really cannot do much more than that. Their abilities to hit targets in Israel without interceptions seems to have really fallen off since this all started. US and Israel have control of most of their airspace. Their regional allies are pretty decimated.
Guess that makes sense. Given their ineptitude it does seem risky to launch missiles over areas that jave nothing to really do with the spat.
 
hopefully we can apply some political pressure to get an Iran nuclear deal that makes sense.
but they keep breaking it so why make a deal at all?

enough for nuclear power plants and that's all they should need
Well. Right out of the gate the fact that two countries just bombed the hell out of them should change the tone a bit. Our past deals have been really bad and just seemed to be forced to get something on the books. Time will tell I guess. I'm hopeful.
You need to define "them" here and I'm being serious when I say that. There is absolutely a segment of that population that sees the attacks as a sign they are on the right path. Within Islam you're doing it right the more resistance you experience.

We can't look at this situation from our own perspective. Need to get in their shoes and evaluate from there. I am absolutely confident, those in charge see this as a setback, not the end.
 
hopefully we can apply some political pressure to get an Iran nuclear deal that makes sense.
but they keep breaking it so why make a deal at all?

enough for nuclear power plants and that's all they should need
Well. Right out of the gate the fact that two countries just bombed the hell out of them should change the tone a bit. Our past deals have been really bad and just seemed to be forced to get something on the books. Time will tell I guess. I'm hopeful.
true. I guess the international community/un inspectors are going to need to be tougher on them.
 
hopefully we can apply some political pressure to get an Iran nuclear deal that makes sense.
but they keep breaking it so why make a deal at all?

enough for nuclear power plants and that's all they should need
Which side?
Plenty of evidence to say the 2018 break of the agreement led to this unnecessary engagement

And why would Iran agree to any deal? Last one got torn up in front of their face.
Kinda makes it feel its not worth the paper its written on
What an outstanding show of strength before peace. Nuke program gone, results in an Israeli-Iran ceasefire.
Amazing.
I think we know enough by now that what comes out as propaganda doesnt match the reality.
Believe what you want, but id probably let the dust settle before throwing out the high fives
Apparently the stockpile they have now is enriched to 60%, and could be further enriched. Weapons grade is 90%. It’s speculated they could achieve that in months.

Then again, they were weeks away in 2011, 2012, 2015….
Exactly.
We have seen this dog and pony show from Netanyahu for decades.
Now he has got his fireworks show, whats the plan?
 
Tehran was getting lit up like a Christmas tree in the last hour so excuse me if I’m not buying the ceasefire stuff.
Apparently that's pretty common in those situations. Obviously we'll see what happens soon.
***hopefully not taken politically*** I am prone to think this is Trump trying to bend the two countries to what he wants to have happen, not what has happened. Hope I’m wrong.
 

Iran's military actions 'continued until last minute', foreign minister adds
published at 20:16
20:16
We've just heard more from the Iranian foreign minister.

"The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am," Seyed Abbas Araghchi has just posted on X.

"Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces, who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute."

4am in Tehran was about 45 minutes ago. It was the deadline he gave Israel to stop its "aggression" against Iran. If Israel did this, he said in the previous statement, "We have no intention to continue our response afterwards."
 
The 2015 framework & the 2016 agreement had rules to limit the number centrifuges, the types of centrifuges (Gen 1 yes Gen 2 & 3 no), how much fuel they stockpiled, and the enrichment levels. For medical and energy purposes it needs to be enriched to 3.67%.

Apparently the stockpile they have now is enriched to 60%, and could be further enriched. Weapons grade is 90%. It’s speculated they could achieve that in months.

Then again, they were weeks away in 2011, 2012, 2015….

Also when you look at the timeline of their program, some of their jumps in efforts came after we decided to opt of our JCPOA and other current talks? I think there is an argument to be made that we had some proof of success that way. We will see how the war way will go, but already we admit we don't know how set back the program is or where the materials are.

No matter how successful the air strike, the last 85 years it’s been proven (endlessly) you cannot achieve political objectives solely through bombing.

Blitz, incendiary firebomb, day and night, nukes, napalm, carpet bombing, precision cruise missiles, MOAB, MOP - sooner or later you need boots on the ground or you reassess/redirect.

When it comes to deterrence, diplomacy and negotiations yield more than swinging a big stick.

Everyone in the world praised JCPOA - literally. The only opposition came from Israel & Saudia Arabia. Although I’m sure it wasn’t perfect, we we were looking 15 years of containment & stability. It. Was. Working.

We walked away….because…????

You can Google and decide for yourself.

I think 45/47 withdrew from it because it was a 44 deal. He didn’t like that his political rival got it done. So he called it a bad agreement (without explanation of what or why it was bad) & we went back to extreme sanctions. Much like ACA, the BBB, or trade agreements, no deals were completed.
 
Tehran was getting lit up like a Christmas tree in the last hour so excuse me if I’m not buying the ceasefire stuff.
Apparently that's pretty common in those situations. Obviously we'll see what happens soon.
***hopefully not taken politically*** I am prone to think this is Trump trying to bend the two countries to what he wants to have happen, not what has happened. Hope I’m wrong.
No you're instincts are right, he's going to bend them all to what benefits the Untied States of America
100% agree Cap :wink:
Sounds like Iran is calling for a cease fire. Would be a great thing.
You sure the POTUS didn't already call for a cease fire or do not retaliate against us?
Make Iran feel like they are calling the cease-fire, good job and agree 100%
Whatever it takes to make the officials there realize they are actually are in better shape post-nuke site bombings and still have their oil fields

:banned:
 
What an outstanding show of strength before peace. Nuke program gone, results in an Israeli-Iran ceasefire.
Amazing.

I find it fascinating that you trust the media here in reporting events accurately but don't trust your own doctors. It's an amazing study in humankind. Especially after the country we live in fabricated an entire story about weapons of mass destruction to launch us into a disastrous war 20 years ago.

This is what I'd like to go back to school and study. People like you, specifically.
 
Media Bad!!!!!

Media now good!!!!

It truly is an amazing time to study the human condition.
I still blame most of everything on our phones and social media, this included.

Sociology as a study is booming in colleges and universities.


Source: Dad of a recent Sociology major grad.

These kids are studying us.
Previous posts are in line with this 100%
 
Sounds like Iran is calling for a cease fire. Would be a great thing.
Iran is on the ropes. Seriously. Their circle of terror groups have been demolished, Assad regime fell, they have lost control of their own airspace within a day, have had numerous military/intelligence leadership killed, all their nuclear sites demolished (as far as we can tell), numerous nuclear scientist unalived, their ability to strike back has been largely impotent, and they only options they have are to escalate and lose more or seek an end.
 
Iran is on the ropes. Seriously. Their circle of terror groups have been demolished, Assad regime fell, they have lost control of their own airspace within a day, have had numerous military/intelligence leadership killed, all their nuclear sites demolished (as far as we can tell), numerous nuclear scientist unalived, their ability to strike back has been largely impotent, and they only options they have are to escalate and lose more or seek an end.
We don't have any idea yet about the damage to their nuclear sites. We can see much of the surface damage, but that's it.
It would be nice to have a team of inspectors to actually see inside the facilities.
 
Iran is on the ropes. Seriously. Their circle of terror groups have been demolished, Assad regime fell, they have lost control of their own airspace within a day, have had numerous military/intelligence leadership killed, all their nuclear sites demolished (as far as we can tell), numerous nuclear scientist unalived, their ability to strike back has been largely impotent, and they only options they have are to escalate and lose more or seek an end.
We don't have any idea yet about the damage to their nuclear sites. We can see much of the surface damage, but that's it.
It would be nice to have a team of inspectors to actually see inside the facilities.
We KNOW all their sites outside of Fordow have been wiped off the earth. For Fordow, we don't know for a fact since it is buried in the ground. I am betting it will be pretty hard to get anyone to inspect anything there... pictures show the topography has been changed there.

It is widely believed (even by the Iranians) that Mossad is pretty well tapped in to Iran. I am thinking the Israeli attacks in the access routes and their agreement to ceasefire is strongly suggestive that they are comfortable that it has been destroyed.

The reality is we have a very good idea of most of their stuff is destroyed with extreme confidence and the one place we can't see from satellite pictures, the average person on the street can take a guess that Israel, which has shown itself very competent when it comes to Iran, is happy. They would not be happy if they didn't believe it was destroyed.
 
This thread's days are numbered imo. People just can't keep it in their pants. Very sad.
 
We KNOW all their sites outside of Fordow have been wiped off the earth.
No, we don't.

Iran has dozens of sites associated with its nuclear program, which it has insisted is only for peaceful and civilian activities such as power generation and research. The day before Israel started its attacks this month, the government in Tehran said it had constructed a new facility outside Natanz that could be used to build new centrifuges. That site is even deeper underground than the enrichment facility at Fordow, built a few hundred feet into a mountain and thought to be the limit of what U.S. “bunker buster” bombs could reach. “The point is they have material that they have made at other facilities,” Lewis said in an interview. “We don’t know what became of that.” Lewis and others suggested that the United States was aware of the limitations of a military attack on the widespread Iranian nuclear program and was more interested in showing Tehran that Washington was prepared to use force to stop it. “It is a loss for the Iranians,” Lewis said of the destruction at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, “but it is not anything like the scale of the attack you would mount if the goal was really to eliminate the program.This problem has delayed them, and undoubtedly there must be things that have been destroyed that they now have to reconstitute,” he said, but the rebuilding could probably be done in no more than a year.
 
From a NYTimes breaking news email...

Iran Confirms Cease-Fire With Israel After Trump Announcement
Iranian state television announced a cease-fire with Israel early Tuesday, hours after President Trump said an agreement had been reached. The Israeli government had no immediate comment, but said the Iranian military was continuing to launch missiles at Israel.
 
Can we please just go back to talking about these topics freely in a separate forum?
My understanding is the FBG Discord has a vibrant political discussion. I think we lost @rockaction to it. Maybe he can pop in here and verify.
FBG discord is awful political discussion as it is all far left people and they attack any right minded posters
 
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