Jordan Reed - TE - SF (1 Viewer)

[ConnSKINS26]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not projecting anything. I'm not saying that Reed is a Hall of Famer, the next Tony Gonzalez, or will be a perennial top-3 fantasy TE. I'm just saying, holy hell, let's slow down and appreciate the fact that we're seeing far and away the best rookie season by a TE since the original Hall of Famer, Iron Mike Ditka himself, back in 1961.

Does anyone remember how crazy Jeremy Shockey was back during his rookie season? Because Jordan Reed is averaging nearly two and a half more fantasy points per game right now. We haven't seen a rookie tight end score fantasy points like this since Yahoo mistakenly granted Marques Colston TE eligibility. And there's still a very decent chance that Reed will even wind up passing Colston's rookie year.

How can you say in one sentence that you are not projecting anything, then in the next say 'far and away the best rookie seaon ever', which is based on some historical data that doesn't have much context today. I'm sorry but one 120 yd game and a handful of 60-70 yard games and a few touchdowns are not anything I need to slow down and appreciate. At no time have I thought to myself what a dominating force Jordan Reed is. He's a good TE that is taking advantage of tremendous opportunity, which doesn't happen very often as a rookie.Things that don't impress me:

1. Possession Receivers.

Things that do impress me:

1. Receivers who do things that very few can do and make great plays.

I guess I have to ask--have you actually seen Reed play? He's made plenty of great plays so far in his young career.

 

[tone1oc]

Yes, I see a guy that isn't going to physically dominate anyone, who runs nice routes and has good hands. He personally reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark in his prime, which is impressive for a rookie.

 

[JackReacher]

Yes, I see a guy that isn't going to physically dominate anyone, who runs nice routes and has good hands. He personally reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark in his prime, which is impressive for a rookie.

Dallas Clark? OK, you've totally lost me there

 

[tone1oc]

Yes, I see a guy that isn't going to physically dominate anyone, who runs nice routes and has good hands. He personally reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark in his prime, which is impressive for a rookie.

Dallas Clark? OK, you've totally lost me there

Both very smooth and come out of there breaks well. They have similar frames and similar speed (4.65 for Clark vs. 4.72 for Reed), Both have strong hands and run great routes.

 

[JackReacher]

Yes, I see a guy that isn't going to physically dominate anyone, who runs nice routes and has good hands. He personally reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark in his prime, which is impressive for a rookie.

Dallas Clark? OK, you've totally lost me there

Both very smooth and come out of there breaks well. They have similar frames and similar speed (4.65 for Clark vs. 4.72 for Reed), Both have strong hands and run great routes.

Never would've considered Clark. Thanks for the response

 

[blake]

How can you say in one sentence that you are not projecting anything, then in the next say 'far and away the best rookie seaon ever', which is based on some historical data that doesn't have much context today. I'm sorry but one 120 yd game and a handful of 60-70 yard games and a few touchdowns are not anything I need to slow down and appreciate. At no time have I thought to myself what a dominating force Jordan Reed is. He's a good TE that is taking advantage of tremendous opportunity, which doesn't happen very often as a rookie.Things that don't impress me:

1. Possession Receivers.

Things that do impress me:

1. Receivers who do things that very few can do and make great plays.

I guess I have to ask--have you actually seen Reed play? He's made plenty of great plays so far in his young career.

I think it is pretty safe to answer from these comments...absolutely not.

 

[tone1oc]

I mean it's easy to just chime in and make jabs as I clearly don't watch football because my sort-of unpopular opinion that Jordan Reed's season isn't anything special. But at least I'm bringing it and backing up my opinion with my thought process, however flawed it may or may not be.

 

[werdnoynek]

I mean it's easy to just chime in and make jabs as I clearly don't watch football because my sort-of unpopular opinion that Jordan Reed's season isn't anything special. But at least I'm bringing it and backing up my opinion with my thought process, however flawed it may or may not be.

I think the issue with most of us is you keep saying this season isn't impressive, yet can't seem to give us any objective reason why. Thought processed be damned... this is the Shark Pool. You're coming off like a contrarian by just giving us your opinion and nothing else. If you actually have something to show that this isn't a successful season and that he's a fraud, please share because the dynasty football community at large is making a grave mistake.

 

[tone1oc]

I mean it's easy to just chime in and make jabs as I clearly don't watch football because my sort-of unpopular opinion that Jordan Reed's season isn't anything special. But at least I'm bringing it and backing up my opinion with my thought process, however flawed it may or may not be.

I think the issue with most of us is you keep saying this season isn't impressive, yet can't seem to give us any objective reason why. Thought processed be damned... this is the Shark Pool. You're coming off like a contrarian by just giving us your opinion and nothing else. If you actually have something to show that this isn't a successful season and that he's a fraud, please share because the dynasty football community at large is making a grave mistake.

I have said over and over that he has been impressive. I'm questioning whether he is a special or elite player, which I'm not sold on. I've never once said or insuated he was a fraud or that he hasn't had a successful season. I'm not sure where you are getting this. I feel like I've made myself clear.

We are arguing over how good this guy is.

SInce you want some numbers in 2008/2009 during his prime, Dalls Clark average 86 rec, 11 y/r, 860 yds, and 8 tds. Which is close to Reeds projection as a rookie, which as I said earlier is impressive.

 

[werdnoynek]

I mean it's easy to just chime in and make jabs as I clearly don't watch football because my sort-of unpopular opinion that Jordan Reed's season isn't anything special. But at least I'm bringing it and backing up my opinion with my thought process, however flawed it may or may not be.

I think the issue with most of us is you keep saying this season isn't impressive, yet can't seem to give us any objective reason why. Thought processed be damned... this is the Shark Pool. You're coming off like a contrarian by just giving us your opinion and nothing else. If you actually have something to show that this isn't a successful season and that he's a fraud, please share because the dynasty football community at large is making a grave mistake.

I have said over and over that he has been impressive. I'm questioning whether he is a special or elite player, which I'm not sold on. I've never once said or insuated he was a fraud or that he hasn't had a successful season. I'm not sure where you are getting this. I feel like I've made myself clear.

We are arguing over how good this guy is.

SInce you want some numbers in 2008/2009 during his prime, Dalls Clark average 86 rec, 11 y/r, 860 yds, and 8 tds. Which is close to Reeds projection as a rookie, which as I said earlier is impressive.

You said it in the quoted text above.

 

[tone1oc]

I said that he isn't special, perhaps semantically I could of worded that without the anything. But what I meant, and what I've been arguing for a few pages is that I'm not sold on him being a special player. And I'm not even saying he won't be, and hope that he indeed is as I am heavily invested in him.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I like Reed a lot, like top 5 TE a lot. Maybe top 3.

That being said, I think Tone1oc is being very reasonable here, and I think the Dallas Clark comp is a decent one. Reed does kind of look like Clark in his prime, a very smooth athlete running smooth routes and catching well. Reed isn't an athletic freak that just dominates, he is a good athlete in a very good situation.

That is the downside, IMO. Finley was a pretty good athlete in a great situation a few years ago, being #1 or #2 on Rodgers' target list. When the Pack's WRs expanded, Finley slid down the target list (and got hurt, and got the dropsies). That is Reed right now. If the Redskins get another strong WR, Reed might slide to #3 and just end up as a low end TE1... nothing wrong with that, but I think it is fair to wonder if Reed is a good TE in a great situation rather that just a great TE.

 

[werdnoynek]

I said that he isn't special, perhaps semantically I could of worded that without the anything. But I meant, and what I've been arguing for a few pages is that I'm not sold on him being a special player. And I'm not even saying he won't be, and hope that he indeed is as I am heavily invested in him.

Alright, I stand corrected. His potentially record breaking season isn't special. Carry on!

 

[tone1oc]

I said that he isn't special, perhaps semantically I could of worded that without the anything. But I meant, and what I've been arguing for a few pages is that I'm not sold on him being a special player. And I'm not even saying he won't be, and hope that he indeed is as I am heavily invested in him.

Alright, I stand corrected. His potentially record breaking season isn't special. Carry on!

Nice back pedal, Sherman-esque

 

[treat88]

I think it's still fair to question how "special" Reed turns out to be in the big scheme of things.

I don't think it's fair to question how special his production has been to date this year.

There is literally nothing more he could be doing in his rookie season to make folks optimistic.

 

[werdnoynek]

I think it's still fair to question how "special" Reed turns out to be in the big scheme of things.

I don't think it's fair to question how special his production has been to date this year.

There is literally nothing more he could be doing in his rookie season to make folks optimistic.

This I (actually) agree with.

 

[tone1oc]

Currently among TEs, Jordan Reeds is:

6th in Yards

8th in TDs

6th in Reception

19th in Y/R

5th in Y/G

5th in R/G

That to me is a top 5-10 TE, not a special TE. I don't put too much stock in it being his rookie season. The major hurtle for a rookie is getting an opportunity, and then being able to figure it out. Which he did right away. Which is very impressive, but in the prism of recent special TEs, I'm not ready to crown him.

 

[tone1oc]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

 

[werdnoynek]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

Comparing a rookie to anyone you've listed above not named Tim Wright isn't all that fair to Reed. I agree Wright's been impressive, but when comparing him to Reed I don't think it's close.

 

[treat88]

Currently among TEs, Jordan Reeds is:

6th in Yards

8th in TDs

6th in Reception

19th in Y/R

5th in Y/G

5th in R/G

That to me is a top 5-10 TE, not a special TE. I don't put too much stock in it being his rookie season. The major hurtle for a rookie is getting an opportunity, and then being able to figure it out. Which he did right away. Which is very impressive, but in the prism of recent special TEs, I'm not ready to crown him.

Which is fair, but not necessarily the comparison everyone here, including myself, is making.

It's not Reed vs. the current field of TEs that makes his production special.

It's Reed vs. the field of previous rookie TE seasons that makes his production special.

For a rookie TE, his production is currently at historic levels. That can't be argued. It's debatable if that carries over to the remainder of his career and also debatable where he slots in vs his peers.

 

[tone1oc]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

Comparing a rookie to anyone you've listed above not named Tim Wright isn't all that fair to Reed. I agree Wright's been impressive, but when comparing him to Reed I don't think it's close.

I think its fair to compare him against contemporaries when we are arguing if he is great or not. At any rate, I guess where our opinions really vary with regard to Reed is what does breaking out as a rookie really mean to the rest of his career. I completely understand the reasoning and don't mean to dismiss it.

 

[Adam Harstad]

How did he compare with Cam Cleeland's rookie season?

Destroying it. Cleeland had 54 receptions and 684 yards in 16 games. Reed's 16-game pace projects out to 88 receptions and 1010 yards.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is era-adjustment. Cleeland's rookie year came during a major down period of TE production (basically, from the early 80s to the early aughts, TEs just weren't very involved in the passing game). Reed has the good fortune of joining the league during a new peak in TE production. Cleeland's rookie year was good enough for a #2 fantasy finish at TE. Reed's season so far has him ranked 7th. Still, in terms of raw numbers, you have to go back to 1961 to find a rookie TE who can come within spitting distance of Jordan Reed.

weren't you the guy comparing Finley to tight ends out of the 1970s and 1980s back a couple years ago? you wound up being on the right side of that argument but I think there is essentially no value in comparing player stats in the current era to players out of it. the game has changed and looking at Cam Cleeland and the original Kellen Winslow provide nothing of value.

Probably. In all honesty, you might be better off comparing current players to the TEs of the 60s, 70s, and early 80s than to the players of the 90s and early 00s. TE usage has been cyclical, and a lot of those older teams relied on their TEs as much or more as current teams have been.

I would strongly disagree that looking at historical comps provides no value, though. They've proven their usefulness many times over through the years. I agree that historical comps aren't determinative (i.e. if Kellen Winslow had gone for 200 more receiving yards one year, that wouldn't make Jordan Reed a better or worse player today), but they're great for providing some context to the discussion and for framing expectations. If I flip a coin 80 times and it comes up heads 80 times, that doesn't make the coin any more or less likely to come up tails on the next flip. At the same time, if I flip a coin 80 times and it comes up heads 80 times, that *DOES* cause me to re-evaluate my estimate of how likely it is that coin is weighted.

Similarly, just because Jordan Reed is outperforming All Pros and HoFers doesn't mean Jordan Reed is destined to become an All Pro or a HoFer. If Tony Gonzalez had gone for 1800 yards as a rookie, that wouldn't impact Jordan Reed's chances of being a top-5 fantasy TE in 2014. Still, coming into the season, I thought "Jordan Reed has an X% chance of becoming an All-Pro tight end and an elite fantasy asset". Today, based on all of the information I have seen, I think "Jordan Reed has a Y% chance of becoming an All-Pro tight end and an elite fantasy asset". Historical comps are useful for determining where Y sits in relation to X. Based on his historical comps- the best rookie season by any tight end since Mike Ditka!- I would estimate that Y is quite a bit greater than X.

 

[werdnoynek]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

Comparing a rookie to anyone you've listed above not named Tim Wright isn't all that fair to Reed. I agree Wright's been impressive, but when comparing him to Reed I don't think it's close.

I think its fair to compare him against contemporaries when we are arguing if he is great or not. At any rate, I guess where our opinions really vary with regard to Reed is what does breaking out as a rookie really mean to the rest of his career. I completely understand the reasoning and don't mean to dismiss it.

I agree it remains to be seen if he will be great in the future... but it seems to me that you're continually downplaying what he's done this season to prove that point. I think you should go about it in a different way because it's been continually shown that what he's doing this season could potentially be historic.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Yes, I see a guy that isn't going to physically dominate anyone, who runs nice routes and has good hands. He personally reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark in his prime, which is impressive for a rookie.

Physical domination is overrated. Jerry Rice never physically dominated anyone, but he's the GOAT. Marvin Harrison never physically dominated anyone, but he's a HoFer. Jordy Nelson doesn't physically dominate anyone, but he's one of the best receivers in the league. There are at least a dozen receivers who are more physically dominating than A.J. Green or Larry Fitzgerald. Stephen Hill, for starters. Vernon Davis is the most physically dominant tight end the league has ever seen (and one of the most physically dominant players regardless of position). Is he one of the best fantasy TEs of all time? Not really.

Physically dominant is awesome, and it'll fill up those highlight reels in a hurry. Personally, I'll take "productive" over "physically dominant" every day and twice on Sundays.

As an aside, I agree that tone1oc is being perfectly reasonable. He's supporting his opinion just fine. I happen to think that opinion is wrong, but just because I think it is doesn't make it so. Maybe tone1oc's opinion will prove to be right and my opinion will prove to be wrong. Either way, fantasy football gets awfully boring when everyone agrees on everything.

 

[tone1oc]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

Comparing a rookie to anyone you've listed above not named Tim Wright isn't all that fair to Reed. I agree Wright's been impressive, but when comparing him to Reed I don't think it's close.

I think its fair to compare him against contemporaries when we are arguing if he is great or not. At any rate, I guess where our opinions really vary with regard to Reed is what does breaking out as a rookie really mean to the rest of his career. I completely understand the reasoning and don't mean to dismiss it.

I agree it remains to be seen if he will be great in the future... but it seems to be you're continually downplaying what he's done this season to prove that point. I think you should go about it in a different way because it's been continually shown that what he's doing this is could potentially be historic.

I guess you could say I'm downplaying him to a degree, because the fact that he is a rookie doesn't mean nearly as much to me. I'm still on the fence, and definitely see him as a career 5-10 TE, meaning his rookie performance is a lot closer to his ceiling than a lot of you believe.

Well said Adam, I agree. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I by no means don't want to see him become great, its really a win/win for me as a fantasy player and a fan.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Also, I don't know why everyone assumes that Washington is going to bring in a lot of weapons for Bob Griffin and Reed will fall in the pecking order. Washington DID bring in a weapon for Robert Griffin. It was Jordan Reed. Washington, despite being extremely deprived of draft picks owing to the Griffin trade, used one of its very best picks on a TE with so-so college production who couldn't block a lick. As I said at the time, when a franchise spends one of its top draft picks on a TE that can't block, they must be planning on using him to catch. They brought in Jordan Reed to give Griffin another offensive weapon, and so far Reed has done EXACTLY THAT, at a rate that is wildly unexpected and historically unprecedented. Reed tore past some pretty quality veterans to make his way to the top of that depth chart on his own merit. He ranks 8th among TEs in targets per game with 7, a totally sustainable number that even provides room for improvement. His snap count has been steadily on the rise. I just don't think there's any serious reason to believe that, in the coming seasons, Washington will make Jordan Reed less involved in the offense. If anything, I think they'll probably make him more involved.

If anyone is playing an unsustainable role in Washington's offense right now, it's not Reed... it's Garcon. Garcon ranks 3rd in the league in targets coming into week 10. He is one of six players averaging over 11 targets per game. The other guys on that list are Blackmon, Julio, VJax, Green, and Calvin. One of these names is different, one of these names doesn't belong. Garcon is really a great NFL WR2 / below-average NFL WR1 who has been thrust into a role far beyond what his talent merits, and he's the guy who'll be due for a correction if/when Washington gets some other quality pass catchers (which might be a while, because Jordan Reed notwithstanding, rookies take some time to develop). When I look at Jordan Reed's role in this offense, nothing about it seems all that ripe for regression. As I said, Jordan Reed is busy doing exactly what Washington drafted him to do, and I reckon they'll just continue asking him to do it.

 

[tone1oc]

Is there anything other than an increase in utilization that you see him greatly improving upon next year? To me he looks like a polished veteran, and in the context of this thread and my argument its almost a knock. Which is just crazy.

 

[Milkman]

The Skins stated they saw Garcon as a WR1. They paid him like a WR1 and he's performing like a WR1. I mean he's not doing it in the traditional sense lining up wide and beating people deep but he is still getting it done by doing what they are asking him to do.

If they brought somebody in like Nicks or Blackmon you don't think Reed's usage/targets go down? That's crazy talk to me.

 

[tone1oc]

As an interesting and rather ironic aside, Dallas Clark is the 9th highest scoring fantasy TE of all time. So at least in terms of fantasy, my comparison to Dallas Clark is actually a favorable historical comparision. Everyone above him on this list is a HOFer.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=1&minyr=1960&maxyr=2013&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=fpt&stat1min=&stat1max=&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s1&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=c

 

[werdnoynek]

The Skins stated they saw Garcon as a WR1. They paid him like a WR1 and he's performing like a WR1. I mean he's not doing it in the traditional sense lining up wide and beating people deep but he is still getting it done by doing what they are asking him to do.

If they brought somebody in like Nicks or Blackmon you don't think Reed's usage/targets go down? That's crazy talk to me.

Adding another WR would, IMO, take targets away from the "WR1" Garcon before it would Reed. The TE is going to get theirs regardless of who is playing WR in most NFL offenses. They're getting the short/intermediate stuff and play mostly in the middle of the field.

Looking at the season totals currently, Reed (49) has only had 5 more looks than Hankerson (44) and 11 more than Moss (38). You think that adding a actual WR1 is going to really change things up that much? Not I.

 

[werdnoynek]

As an interesting and rather ironic aside, Dallas Clark is the 9th highest scoring fantasy TE of all time. So at least in terms of fantasy, my comparison to Dallas Clark is actually a favorable historical comparision. Everyone above him on this list is a HOFer.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=1&minyr=1960&maxyr=2013&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=fpt&stat1min=&stat1max=&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=s1&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=c

Yeah, he was TE #2 and TE #3 in the seasons you referenced above. Comparing him to Clark isn't a knock on Reed IMO, other than the fact that Clark played half his career on the sideline injured. If he actually stayed healthy, he'd probably be higher on the list.

 

[werdnoynek]

Is there anything other than an increase in utilization that you see him greatly improving upon next year? To me he looks like a polished veteran, and in the context of this thread and my argument its almost a knock. Which is just crazy.

I think the main knock on Reed coming out was his blocking... not that it has much to do with fantasy production, but according to PFF he's the #1 run blocking TE with at least 50% of the teams snaps. Shocking, but it could have something to do with him getting so much playing time.

He was known for his vision/elusiveness coming out. Something he really can't improve much on IMO. He's been phenomenal in getting yards after the catch and is tied with Jimmy Graham with 218 yards.

I think something that most TE's improve on with time and experience is route running and separation. A guy like Gonzo who has become such a master of the craft can still get open, at 37, on anyone with his ability to run perfect routes and get separation. That is something I would expect Reed to improve on each year with experience.

FWIW (and it's probably not much given their rep around here), PFF has him ranked tied with Gonzo as the #1 TE overall this season with TE's receiving over 50% of the snaps. The overall ranking taking into consideration receiving, blocking, and penalties.

ETA: realized he was tied for #1 with Gonzo

 

[tone1oc]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

 

[Sebowski]

Also, I don't know why everyone assumes that Washington is going to bring in a lot of weapons for Bob Griffin and Reed will fall in the pecking order. Washington DID bring in a weapon for Robert Griffin. It was Jordan Reed. Washington, despite being extremely deprived of draft picks owing to the Griffin trade, used one of its very best picks on a TE with so-so college production who couldn't block a lick. As I said at the time, when a franchise spends one of its top draft picks on a TE that can't block, they must be planning on using him to catch. They brought in Jordan Reed to give Griffin another offensive weapon, and so far Reed has done EXACTLY THAT, at a rate that is wildly unexpected and historically unprecedented. Reed tore past some pretty quality veterans to make his way to the top of that depth chart on his own merit. He ranks 8th among TEs in targets per game with 7, a totally sustainable number that even provides room for improvement. His snap count has been steadily on the rise. I just don't think there's any serious reason to believe that, in the coming seasons, Washington will make Jordan Reed less involved in the offense. If anything, I think they'll probably make him more involved.

If anyone is playing an unsustainable role in Washington's offense right now, it's not Reed... it's Garcon. Garcon ranks 3rd in the league in targets coming into week 10. He is one of six players averaging over 11 targets per game. The other guys on that list are Blackmon, Julio, VJax, Green, and Calvin. One of these names is different, one of these names doesn't belong. Garcon is really a great NFL WR2 / below-average NFL WR1 who has been thrust into a role far beyond what his talent merits, and he's the guy who'll be due for a correction if/when Washington gets some other quality pass catchers (which might be a while, because Jordan Reed notwithstanding, rookies take some time to develop). When I look at Jordan Reed's role in this offense, nothing about it seems all that ripe for regression. As I said, Jordan Reed is busy doing exactly what Washington drafted him to do, and I reckon they'll just continue asking him to do it.

Wrong thread, but you are drastically underestimating Garcon here. His name fits in just fine there. I bet he looks pretty good if you drop those target numbers down by just one as well.

 

[Bayhawks]

We have another breakout TE in Julius Thomas who is catching a lot of TDs and is a legitimate red zone monster in addition to Jimmy Graham on pace for 1500 yards and 20 TDs. That is not even mentioning Vernon Davis, Gronk, Whiten, Gonzalez or Cameron who are all having very good, if not better years than Reed. And then you have the emergence of Tim Wright who has been really impressive as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree on how much stock to put into his breakout coming as a rookie.

TE position is/has been evolving, and so should our expectations.

Reed wasn't the starter at the beginning of the season. The first 2 games, he didn't get a lot of PT, didn't see a lot of targets, and wasn't as involved as he is now. In the 3rd game, he began to see more PT and targets, but he got dinged up and missed week 4. After the bye in week 5, Jordan has been the main TE. Excluding week 10, because no other TE (save Carlson) has played, Reed is the #2 FF TE (non-PPR). If you go bye PPG (to account for byes), he is #4, behind only Davis, Graham, and Gronk.

You want to discount him as a "special" TE, and the future could cause his potential to change. But the fact is that he is an important target in Washington. Could they acquire a better #2 WR, bumping him down the target pecking order? Sure, but so could SF, so could NO, so could Cleveland, etc. The fact is that the increased importance of TEs in the NFL is because of the matchup advantages they give the offense. Reed gives the 'skins a matchup advantage. I'm not sure it makes much more sense to discount his future potential because the 'skins "might" get another receiving threat.

 

[treat88]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

 

[Bayhawks]

Is there anything other than an increase in utilization that you see him greatly improving upon next year? To me he looks like a polished veteran, and in the context of this thread and my argument its almost a knock. Which is just crazy.

TDs. I'm not saying he WILL catch more TDs, but the fact is that those top TEs are the ones who catch a lot of passes, gain a lot of yards, AND score TDs. Reed is catching the passes, getting the yards, but not scoring tons of TDs. IF he scores more TDs, he will jump up the TE rankings.

 

[Mene]

People keep mentioning the lack of TD's as problematic, but I have to ask... what lack of TD's? He has 3 at the midway point, but his utilization hasn't been even, as his snap-count and involvement have increased pretty steadily. He's scored twice in the last 4 weeks, which is when he really took the position over. He's also been targeted a couple times down there over the last couple weeks where they didn't convert. So I see a guy who's pace puts him on for 7 or so TD's, which isn't poor for a TE at all. He also could reasonably have 5 or so TD's right now, just based on opportunity, so assuming his usage will continue the same, converting a couple more of those chances could push him to the 8 or 9 TD range.

A long winded way of saying his pace could very well place him top 6 in TD's for TE's by the end of the year. In fact, something in his current trends would have to begin going the other way for him not to.

 

[GroveDiesel]

All I know is that thanks to this thread I picked him up 2 weeks ago in my non-TE required league to help with WR byes (and Blackmon's stupidity) and he not only got me off to a great start this week but will likely be my #3 WR going forward over Bowe and Colston.

 

[Bayhawks]

People keep mentioning the lack of TD's as problematic, but I have to ask... what lack of TD's? He has 3 at the midway point, but his utilization hasn't been even, as his snap-count and involvement have increased pretty steadily. He's scored twice in the last 4 weeks, which is when he really took the position over. He's also been targeted a couple times down there over the last couple weeks where they didn't convert. So I see a guy who's pace puts him on for 7 or so TD's, which isn't poor for a TE at all. He also could reasonably have 5 or so TD's right now, just based on opportunity, so assuming his usage will continue the same, converting a couple more of those chances could push him to the 8 or 9 TD range.

A long winded way of saying his pace could very well place him top 6 in TD's for TE's by the end of the year. In fact, something in his current trends would have to begin going the other way for him not to.

It was asked, "what can he greatly improve upon next year?" My response was TDs. While he may get 6-8 this year, which isn't bad, if he is going to be a "top" TE, he will need to be a more reliable TD threat. The reason Graham and Gronk are looked at as being above TEs like Witten, Davis, etc is because of their TD production. The catches and yards are great, but the TEs are what make a TE elite. 90 catches, 1000 yards is all well and good, but if you only get 5 TDs to go with it, you aren't an "elite" FF TE.

 

[hines]

How did he compare with Cam Cleeland's rookie season?

Destroying it. Cleeland had 54 receptions and 684 yards in 16 games. Reed's 16-game pace projects out to 88 receptions and 1010 yards.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is era-adjustment. Cleeland's rookie year came during a major down period of TE production (basically, from the early 80s to the early aughts, TEs just weren't very involved in the passing game). Reed has the good fortune of joining the league during a new peak in TE production. Cleeland's rookie year was good enough for a #2 fantasy finish at TE. Reed's season so far has him ranked 7th. Still, in terms of raw numbers, you have to go back to 1961 to find a rookie TE who can come within spitting distance of Jordan Reed.

weren't you the guy comparing Finley to tight ends out of the 1970s and 1980s back a couple years ago? you wound up being on the right side of that argument but I think there is essentially no value in comparing player stats in the current era to players out of it. the game has changed and looking at Cam Cleeland and the original Kellen Winslow provide nothing of value.

Probably. In all honesty, you might be better off comparing current players to the TEs of the 60s, 70s, and early 80s than to the players of the 90s and early 00s. TE usage has been cyclical, and a lot of those older teams relied on their TEs as much or more as current teams have been.

I would strongly disagree that looking at historical comps provides no value, though. They've proven their usefulness many times over through the years. I agree that historical comps aren't determinative (i.e. if Kellen Winslow had gone for 200 more receiving yards one year, that wouldn't make Jordan Reed a better or worse player today), but they're great for providing some context to the discussion and for framing expectations. If I flip a coin 80 times and it comes up heads 80 times, that doesn't make the coin any more or less likely to come up tails on the next flip. At the same time, if I flip a coin 80 times and it comes up heads 80 times, that *DOES* cause me to re-evaluate my estimate of how likely it is that coin is weighted.

Similarly, just because Jordan Reed is outperforming All Pros and HoFers doesn't mean Jordan Reed is destined to become an All Pro or a HoFer. If Tony Gonzalez had gone for 1800 yards as a rookie, that wouldn't impact Jordan Reed's chances of being a top-5 fantasy TE in 2014. Still, coming into the season, I thought "Jordan Reed has an X% chance of becoming an All-Pro tight end and an elite fantasy asset". Today, based on all of the information I have seen, I think "Jordan Reed has a Y% chance of becoming an All-Pro tight end and an elite fantasy asset". Historical comps are useful for determining where Y sits in relation to X. Based on his historical comps- the best rookie season by any tight end since Mike Ditka!- I would estimate that Y is quite a bit greater than X.

I think it has zero to do with historical comps. you don't need historical comps to upgrade your long-term projection of Reed. the game is totally different now, the tight end position is used differently, the rules are different, and the athletes are different. looking up Mike Ditka's and Kellen Winslow's stats are a waste of time when talking about fantasy football and Jordan Reed. think about someone talking about Roger Staubach and Fran Tarkenton's stats when evaluating Andrew Luck and EJ Manuel and how we'd all think that was ridiculous because of how different things are now

 

[tone1oc]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

 

[JuniorNB]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

What's your agenda here? You're taking a beating in this thread, but you keep sticking to your guns. He passes the eye test plus he has the numbers to show he's already an upper tier tight end. And he's really only been incorporated full time in the Redskins offense about four weeks.

Did you get outbid for him on waivers? Did he beat you up in high school? I don't get it.

 

[tone1oc]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

What's your agenda here? You're taking a beating in this thread, but you keep sticking to your guns. He passes the eye test plus he has the numbers to show he's already an upper tier tight end. And he's really only been incorporated full time in the Redskins offense about four weeks.

Did you get outbid for him on waivers? Did he beat you up in high school? I don't get it.

My agenda is to debate how great Jordan Reed is and what his rookie breakthrough really means going forward. I don't believe I've been taking a beating, I got jumped up on for being new here and making a comparison to Dallas Clark, which turned out to be a really good one. Are you seeing red and twisting my words because I'm not blindly fluffing him because, maybe you have him in all your leagues?

Questioning one's motives is silly and fruitless. Fantasy football is serious business.

 

[treat88]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

Lots more to the craft than just "route running". Alignment recognition, timing, individual tendencies, playbook integration, etc. etc.

I'm not trying to give you a sales pitch on Reed here, but I am a little confused as to what you are really saying about him.

You've said he's a rook that's already playing like a polished vet but yet has room to improve his craft....but at the same time believe he is at his ceiling in terms of production?

You've indicated that his production is simply a function of opportunity and volume...but believe he has shown no special talent to warrant that opportunity?

I get the skepticism based on sustainability due to sample size, but really the only cogent argument that I am hearing you make against him is that he's not a physical "specimen".

 

[Bayhawks]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

Let me get this straight:

There is room to improve his craft (and right now he's TE8, as a rookie, in PPG)

He's not succeeding on pure talent (although he's only played TE for 3 years)

He doesn't still have a lot to learn about being a successful receiver (never mind that TEs/WRs like Gonzalez, Fitzgerald, Johnson, HOFers like Rice, T Brown, etc were ALWAYS improving their skills as a receiver)

So, first-you're contradicting yourself when you say there's room to improve, then saying "not really-how much better can you run a pass route," then you say he's not succeeding on pure talent, despite the fact that he is in his first year in this offense, and only his 3rd year as a TE, then you ignore the fact that HOF-caliber receivers/TEs (who were receivers through HS, college, etc) were learning how to be better receivers well into their NFL career.

Yeah, you're making good points here.

 

[JackReacher]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

What's your agenda here? You're taking a beating in this thread, but you keep sticking to your guns. He passes the eye test plus he has the numbers to show he's already an upper tier tight end. And he's really only been incorporated full time in the Redskins offense about four weeks. Did you get outbid for him on waivers? Did he beat you up in high school? I don't get it.

My agenda is to debate how great Jordan Reed is and what his rookie breakthrough really means going forward. I don't believe I've been taking a beating, I got jumped up on for being new here and making a comparison to Dallas Clark, which turned out to be a really good one. Are you seeing red and twisting my words because I'm not blindly fluffing him because, maybe you have him in all your leagues?Questioning one's motives is silly and fruitless. Fantasy football is serious business.

Even if Clark is a really good comp as you say (I respectfully disagree), how does that support your opinion about Reed? And while I'm at it, what is exactly your opinion on Reed?

 

[tone1oc]

Agree that typically rookies and young players need to improve on the so called 'small things' such as precision route running, consistent breaks, seperation at the lineup of scrimmage, etc.

Usually, and this is strictly observational, when a rookie breaks out it is because of some crazy talent, not because they are doing everything right. To me Jordan Reed's success has been more to do with the latter.

You may be right, but you are essentially saying that a kid who converted from QB to TE and has two years of collegiate experience at the position (which got him drafted in the 3rd round), and .5 seasons of NFL experience has essentially no room to improve his craft.

There is room to improve his craft for sure, the point is he isn't a rookie that is out there succeeding on pure talent that still has a lot to learn to become a successful receiver. There is a limit to how good you can run a route no?

Lots more to the craft than just "route running". Alignment recognition, timing, individual tendencies, playbook integration, etc. etc.

I'm not trying to give you a sales pitch on Reed here, but I am a little confused as to what you are really saying about him.

You've said he's a rook that's already playing like a polished vet but yet has room to improve his craft....but at the same time believe he is at his ceiling in terms of production?

You've indicated that his production is simply a function of opportunity and volume...but believe he has shown no special talent to warrant that opportunity?

I get the skepticism based on sustainability due to sample size, but really the only cogent argument that I am hearing you make against him is that he's not a physical "specimen".

"Lots more to the craft than just route running"

I never said "route running" was the only aspect, we were using it for discussion. I believe that even if he "has room to improve his craft for sure" like I said, these improvements won't mark a huge uptick in his current production.

"You've said he's a rook that's already playing like a polished vet but yet has room to improve his craft....but at the same time believe he is at his ceiling in terms of production?"

I said that he is closer to his ceiling than some areprojecting, based largely on his "historic" rookie season for a TE.

"You've indicated that his production is simply a function of opportunity and volume...but believe he has shown no special talent to warrant that opportunity?"

Again, I've never indicated that his production is simply a function of opportunity and volume. Since when is good speed, smooth, precise route running with really good hands equate to he is just a function of high targets? I think you are getting this from my question as to what you all see in his game that will improve and take him to the next level.

 

[tone1oc]

Let me get this straight:

There is room to improve his craft (and right now he's TE8, as a rookie, in PPG)

He's not succeeding on pure talent (although he's only played TE for 3 years)

He doesn't still have a lot to learn about being a successful receiver (never mind that TEs/WRs like Gonzalez, Fitzgerald, Johnson, HOFers like Rice, T Brown, etc were ALWAYS improving their skills as a receiver)

So, first-you're contradicting yourself when you say there's room to improve, then saying "not really-how much better can you run a pass route," then you say he's not succeeding on pure talent, despite the fact that he is in his first year in this offense, and only his 3rd year as a TE, then you ignore the fact that HOF-caliber receivers/TEs (who were receivers through HS, college, etc) were learning how to be better receivers well into their NFL career.

Yeah, you're making good points here.

If you twist my arguments and distort every concession I've made for the other side of the argument, then yeah you're making good points here. I addressed most of this in my last post.

 

[tone1oc]

Even if Clark is a really good comp as you say (I respectfully disagree), how does that support your opinion about Reed? And while I'm at it, what is exactly your opinion on Reed?

How can you legitimately read the last few pages and not know where my evaluation of Jordan Reed stands?

You guys are all seething that I'm not ready to anoint him an elite player! I have said over and over that he is to me a Top 5-10 TE in this league. I have continually said that I've been impressed with what he has done as a rookie. This whole greatness debate started based on someone mocking a poster as if it was even valid to question his greatness, which I wholly disagreed with.

I think the past few pages are indicative that it is fair to still have a wait and see with Jordan Reed as far as his greatness.

Is it really this hard to tell the difference between being critical of a players greatness and a cynical view that he is not good?