Jordan Reed will finish 2nd only to Jimmy Graham this year (1 Viewer)

[McGarnicle]

I NEED YOU PEOPLE TO COME TO A CONSENSUS BECAUSE I HAVE A DRAFT TOMORROW AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH TE TO DRAFT.

Do your own ####### homework.

Oh #### #### #### ####!!! Three weeks ago it was like holy #### I have all this time and now I'm literally drafting tomorrow and I haven't even heard if half these people. And Toby Gerheart is with Jacksonville now??! What the #### is that?! Is Roddy White healthy? What position does Jordan Stankey play?

 

[Ryan Swope's Pro Career]

To draft Reed at his ADP (in 12 team leagues, costing you a 7th-9th round pick on average), you have to go all in. You have to assume he'll outplay every player coming before him not named Gronk or Graham, and that nobody else behind him has a chance to beat him out. The fact that Reed is getting drafted before Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz (players I think are potential top-5 TEs each) throws a wrench in the first, and I can't justify Reed beating most any TE drafted before him, even if he stays healthy.

My philosophy is never to reach at TE. It's the least productive position past the top 3, and the difference between the TE5 and TE12 was about 2 points per game. Unless you think one of players in this range will elevate their game to the point of breaking into the 10 point per game tier, there's no reason to reach. Taking Reed at his ADP is too high for me, I'd rather wait on him a round or two while grabbing depth, then grab Rudolph or Ertz if I happen to miss out.

I don't understand why drafting Reed as TE8ish/9ish is going "all in," anymore so than drafting any other player. Why do you have to assume he'll outplay guys like Jordan Cameron and Vernon Davis, who go several rounds earlier than him? Even though you want every pick to turn out great, getting a lower return on a cheaper investment doesn't sink your draft or anything.

I also don't really see Reed as a reach this year. I prefer Rudolph slightly, but I have the two of them as the best price-to-value TEs this season, and will be happy to take whichever one I can get. If you're worried about investing in Reed, Rudolph, or Ertz because they're relatively unproven, this is actually a good season for it. With guys like Heath Miller going in the 12th round or later, you can buy a little insurance for them on the cheap. I don't usually like to roster two TEs unless the format dictates it, but it strikes me as more reasonable this year than past years.

My main point is that Reed isn't head and shoulders above Rudolph and Ertz, so drafting him a round or two earlier, particularly if you're waiting to be the last to draft a TE, isn't something I can justify. I would rather wait to see if. I can get him a round or two later, then taking my pick of the late TE upside crop when I want to take a TE rather than when Reed will be drafted in most leagues. I see your logic with the depth at TE with taking a flier on Reed by getting a high floor player like Miller, but I would never want to need to start Heath Miller due to injury, which has been an issue in his short career so far. If your league is bench-deep, and you can afford to draft a high floor TE like Miller, then maybe I can see Reed being a good value with a 8-9th round pick.

 

[DonnyT33]

I am cereal guys. You want to grab him even if you have to reach. If you have been watching all these preseason games, and all these penalties for illegal contact against the defense, you have taken notice of the advantage the TEs will have. So teams that have a TE that is the #1 option in the passing game (Graham, Gronk, Reed, Jordan, Rudolph) are going to benefit. I think Reed is in for a MONSTER year.

do you mean Gronk and Julius Thomas will pass on or not play 12 plus games this year AND that Reed who has yet to prove in his pro or college career can be reliable to show up in pads on more than 3-4 consecutive game days? Plus he is already very susceptible to the dreaded concussion syndrome...i do like his game a ton but lets see him string 6-10 games playing full games in a row before you jump so such huge conclusions. I'd say Kyle Rudolph with Norv Turner his OC now and Cassell playing much better than most realize right now and knows from watching Brady how to utilize a great TE has a better chance to do such a thing than Reed this year...But if Gronk is close to 90% (doubt hell get to 100% till late in year or next even) and plays most of the games this year Reed has almost no chance at out producing him and he has NO chance at out pointing Julius Thomas imo..not with Peyton getting him to the ball and being his #2 option in his pass game..so this is going out on a very thin limb imo. He's just not come close to proving that he can stay on the field enough for such a call.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I have a lunch that Coby Fleener will creep into the top 10 for the TE position.

 

[Dark Matter]

Plucked him off waivers last year just before he was concussed. Drafted JReed this season. MAKE THIS BE SO!!!q111!!