Kerley... where is he in top 250 forward now? (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

FFG's has Kerley at WR60, and I'm thinking that's far too low, behind a WR like Blackmon. Even Burleson is WR 45. Kerley is likely to become the top target on an awful offense on a team whose defense looks like it's crumbling too. The Jets should be playing from behind pretty much all year. At WR60, that means that on average, there are two better WR's on almost every team in the NFL. I expect Kerley to have the most team targets and catches, granted on perhaps the worst offense in the NFL.

The Jets have no running game. The passing game is almost as putrid, but I have to think by default, Kerley is better than a WR5, isn't he? In fact, I'd wager he is top 30 this week, despite facing a tough Texans D. I'd also wager he ends at least 36 to 42, in that low WR3- high WR4 bye week fill in area. He's a WR 3 on a 12 team roster that spent draft picks on stud RB's for sure. (Given a 12 team league) I think that is perhaps even a pessimistic projection.

If the Jets DO give up on their season and start Tebow, all bets are off, but even if Tebow gets a start or two, that will prove to be even more disasterous than keeping Sanchez in. If Tebow does ever start, it will be short lived... like the rest of GM Tannenbaum's career with the Jets is.

Anyways, I think Kerley is a great WW pickup or buy low now. Keller and Hill did not practice again today, Thursday. At least for Monday night, I'm callin Kerley as a WR2 with 9 targets, 82 yards and possibly a TD. That would mean Kerley gets 82 out of the 132 yards Sanchez will throw for on Monday.

 

[Mentos]

I am going with 75 of Sanchez's 154 yards.

 

[cstu]

FFG's has Kerley at WR60, and I'm thinking that's far too low, behind a WR like Blackmon. Even Burleson is WR 45. Kerley is likely to become the top target on an awful offense on a team whose defense looks like it's crumbling too. The Jets should be playing from behind pretty much all year. At WR60, that means that on average, there are two better WR's on almost every team in the NFL. I expect Kerley to have the most team targets and catches, granted on perhaps the worst offense in the NFL.

The Jets have no running game. The passing game is almost as putrid, but I have to think by default, Kerley is better than a WR5, isn't he? In fact, I'd wager he is top 30 this week, despite facing a tough Texans D. I'd also wager he ends at least 36 to 42, in that low WR3- high WR4 bye week fill in area. He's a WR 3 on a 12 team roster that spent draft picks on stud RB's for sure. (Given a 12 team league) I think that is perhaps even a pessimistic projection.

If the Jets DO give up on their season and start Tebow, all bets are off, but even if Tebow gets a start or two, that will prove to be even more disasterous than keeping Sanchez in. If Tebow does ever start, it will be short lived... like the rest of GM Tannenbaum's career with the Jets is.

Anyways, I think Kerley is a great WW pickup or buy low now. Keller and Hill did not practice again today, Thursday. At least for Monday night, I'm callin Kerley as a WR2 with 9 targets, 82 yards and possibly a TD. That would mean Kerley gets 82 out of the 132 yards Sanchez will throw for on Monday.

9 targets, 94 yards.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I think there should be more talk about this guy - seems like a good pickup as long as Sanchez is starting - not sure how much longer that will be though.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

 

[Rovers]

I was pimping Kerley in so many threads last week, I actually forgot about this one.

Going forward, first off, I seriously doubt Tebow will ever start over Sanchez. (Pretty much confirmed by Rex Ryan today.) So, with that as my premise, I believe Kerley will be a solid WR2 or WR3 on a consistant basis, even when Keller returns. While Sanchez has favored Keller with the most targets the last few years, Sanchez has never really had a steady WR that he trusts the way he trusts Kerley. I could see this even before the Holmes injury. (Sanchez never did have any real chemistry with Holmes)

For whatever reasons, Sanchez and Kerley are on the same page, they have a chemistry and trust each other. Other than Keller, I don't think Sanchez has had that kind of chemistry with any other reciever since he became a Jet. I also think Hill's return will only help Kerley. Hill can keep the safeties honest with his speed, despite his bad hands.

Kerley's hands are better, maybe a lot better than Keller's are. I've seen Keller drop a lot of catchable balls. I think Kerley will continue to lead the Jets in targets from here out. I also notice that FBG has bumped Kerley's ranking way up for week 6. Staff seems to see what I do.

Kerley could become the Jets' version of Wes Welker light. OK, very light. You get the drift though.

 

[Krilons Resa]

What about Stephen Hill when he returns? He had a huge Week 1 before getting injured. He's a rook but very talented.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

my guess not on the list

 

[squistion]

For whatever reasons, Sanchez and Kerley are on the same page, they have a chemistry and trust each other.

Kerley had the same type of chemistry with Andy Dalton at TCU. In fact, that was how I discovered Kerley - I was researching rookie QBs last year and after looking at a YouTube clip of one of Dalton's games, I found my asking, "Who is this Kerley guy that Dalton keeps connecting with?" I drafted him in one deep dynasty in 2011 and added him preseason in the others this year.

Kerley could become the Jets' version of Wes Welker light. OK, very light. You get the drift though.

Well, let's not go overboard, but I also see him as solid, move-the-chains possession receiver that can be gold in PPR leagues. With the Jet's offesive woes his value will probably be greater in subsequent years, but I agree that for the balance of this season he can solid #3 flex starter in PPR.

 

[KingPrawn]

 

[ponchsox]

WR38 according to FBG's 250 going forward

 

[Rovers]

For whatever reasons, Sanchez and Kerley are on the same page, they have a chemistry and trust each other.

Kerley had the same type of chemistry with Andy Dalton at TCU. In fact, that was how I discovered Kerley - I was researching rookie QBs last year and after looking at a YouTube clip of one of Dalton's games, I found my asking, "Who is this Kerley guy that Dalton keeps connecting with?" I drafted him in one deep dynasty in 2011 and added him preseason in the others this year.

Kerley could become the Jets' version of Wes Welker light. OK, very light. You get the drift though.

Well, let's not go overboard, but I also see him as solid, move-the-chains possession receiver that can be gold in PPR leagues. With the Jet's offesive woes his value will probably be greater in subsequent years, but I agree that for the balance of this season he can solid #3 flex starter in PPR.

Kerley's 19.4 yard/reception would imply he is more than a move the chains WR I think. On the other hand, he's a very capable move the chains guy with a 65.2% reception/target stat. I did say Wes Welker very light! The sample size is very small, and Keller's return to the line up may, or may not impact Kerley's targets. I think Kerley will be getting 7 to 10 targets a game going forward. Crystal balling at it's best. Kerley is not a one trick pony, not just a possession reciever. He can, and has gotten deep. He excells at deep middle routes.

As for the Stephen Hill question... I think Hill will keep safeties honest. His hands are not good, but his size and speed still make him a deep threat that defenses will not be able to ignore. Hill is a lot like Little, but can his or anyone's hands be worse than Little's? His return to the field can only help Kerley IMO. Hill is a rookie who is capable of the blow up week. Kerley will be far more consistant, and will be a reliable WR2 with an occassional WR3 week.

When Hill can draw deep safety sideline coverage, that should help Kerley with his deep middle routes. Keller will fill the move the chains role. Short underneath stuff.

The big question I have is this: Which player becomes Sanchez's preferred red zone target? Keller, Kerley or S Hill? Kerley may not look like a typical RZ target, but he can run the end zone fade better than any WR the Jets have, and it is a favorite Jets EZ play call.

With Holmes out, the individual roles in the offense for the Jets' recievers is yet to be defined. Of all of them, Kerley is the safest bet.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Props to Rovers for this thread. Kerley was nails yesterday.

 

[Rovers]

LOL.... I went looking for a Kerley thread I thought I had started, but couldn't find it... and I started a new one when you were bumping this one, Buck.

Glad he worked out for you. I started both S Hill and Kerley over B Lloyd this week. Worked out for me too with J Jones on a bye.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

LOL.... I went looking for a Kerley thread I thought I had started, but couldn't find it... and I started a new one when you were bumping this one, Buck. Glad he worked out for you. I started both S Hill and Kerley over B Lloyd this week. Worked out for me too with J Jones on a bye.

I was sold after his MNF performance vs Hou. No reason to think he won't do well against Miami..NYJ will not be able to run the ball against them at all.

 

[Rovers]

LOL.... I went looking for a Kerley thread I thought I had started, but couldn't find it... and I started a new one when you were bumping this one, Buck.

Glad he worked out for you. I started both S Hill and Kerley over B Lloyd this week. Worked out for me too with J Jones on a bye.

I was sold after his MNF performance vs Hou. No reason to think he won't do well against Miami..NYJ will not be able to run the ball against them at all.

You mean I didn't convince you when I started this thread before the Houston game? I am not a particularly great FF player... won a few championships, but hardly do I dominate. Having said that, for whatever reasons, my track record when it comes to evaluating Jets players for FF is pretty amazing. From Curtis Martin's bounce back year when he won the rushing title, to Thomas Jones, to Kerley, maybe it's just luck, but my crystal balling has been so spot on it's ridiculous.

Oh, and trade Sanchez in ALL dynasty formats.

 

[Rovers]

Interestly enough, FBG had Kerley at WR38 for week 7 in the 250 list. Lets see if they are as stubborn to move him up as they were stubborn to move Lloyd down. Just goes to show how rankings are just another person's opinion, and are nothing more than just a second opinion. Nothing replaces a FF player's own opinion. The weekly rankings have reflected Kerley's opportunities, but the 250 forward list is more like an orphan that gets ignored.

I do value and put a lot of stock in the weekly rankings. Not even sure why I look at the 250, other than to pick a nit.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

The only thing scary about Kerley is that Sanchez has put up some real stinkers this year in which no Jet target will put up good numbers. Having said that though, I like that Kerley plays mostly the slot because that's seems to be Sanchez's sweet spot for the three step throws he will mostly look to make. I hope that he does see some more red zone opportunities given the Jets difficulties in punching it in.

 

[cstu]

The only thing scary about Kerley is that Sanchez has put up some real stinkers this year in which no Jet target will put up good numbers. Having said that though, I like that Kerley plays mostly the slot because that's seems to be Sanchez's sweet spot for the three step throws he will mostly look to make. I hope that he does see some more red zone opportunities given the Jets difficulties in punching it in.

The Jets have had some tough passing matchups this year (Steeler, 49ers, Texans, Colts) and Sanchez (and Kerley) performed poorly in all of them. Kerly had a nice game against the Texans (5 for 94) but he can't be relied on when Sanchez is facing a good pass defense. The bright side is that the Jets have a rather easy passing schedule the rest of the way, including playoff weeks 14-16 against the Jags, Titans and Chargers.I think Kerley can put up low WR2 numbers in good matchups, but he's benchable against the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals.

 

[Rovers]

The only thing scary about Kerley is that Sanchez has put up some real stinkers this year in which no Jet target will put up good numbers. Having said that though, I like that Kerley plays mostly the slot because that's seems to be Sanchez's sweet spot for the three step throws he will mostly look to make. I hope that he does see some more red zone opportunities given the Jets difficulties in punching it in.

The Jets have had some tough passing matchups this year (Steeler, 49ers, Texans, Colts) and Sanchez (and Kerley) performed poorly in all of them. Kerly had a nice game against the Texans (5 for 94) but he can't be relied on when Sanchez is facing a good pass defense. The bright side is that the Jets have a rather easy passing schedule the rest of the way, including playoff weeks 14-16 against the Jags, Titans and Chargers.I think Kerley can put up low WR2 numbers in good matchups, but he's benchable against the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals.

I think Kerley can put up WR2 numbers even in tough matchups. You have to discount the pre-Holmes injury games. Holmes was a disruptive force and demanded the ball. They let him dictate. The problems between Sanchez and Holmes are well documented.Kerley had a nice game against the Texans, and that was a tough matchup. Sanchez didn't throw the ball against Indy, he didn't have to and if Ryan can play a game where all Sanchez has to do is hand the ball off, he will, and for good reason. That won't happen again. In a favorable matchup, Kerley went 7 for 120. Three games is a small sample size, but he will continue to get from 6 to 12 targets per game, closer to ten most often. So, if he averages 10 targets per game, and his YPC is 17 with a completion % of 62... he'll be on a pace to get near 100 yards per game. In tough matchups, I figure 60 to 80. While he isn't a real red zone threat, I figure he's going to get around 5 more TD's. Even if you want to water down my numbers, he still falls into WR2 territory. Like any WR, he could have a down week, but I think he will be very consistant as Sanchez's favorite target. He is no Welker, but he fills Welker's role on this offense. He gets open. His QB trusts him. He has been getting between 25 to 30% of Sanchez's targets. That will continue.

 

[Rovers]

This is an excerpt from the "Fantasy Roundtable" feature, one of my favorite reads at FBG. One of the topics for the week is the Jets offense. Some staffers just seem to be unable to modify their mindset on ceratin players.

JEFF PASQUINO: The Jets were geared up the past few weeks against New England and Houston, but it is hard to have great confidence in a player like Kerley who wasn't even supposed to be starting this season.

Should it matter that Kerley wasn't a starter? That actually isn't entirely correct anyway... Hill and Kerley were likely to be in a rotation, and Kerely was penciled in as the slot reciever in any case. Was Victor Cruz supposed to be a starter? I'm certainly not trying to compare Kerley to Cruz other than to point out that tons of very good NFL'ers have excelled beyond expectations when given the chance to play.

Other staffers think Kerley is a WR3 unless it's a favorable matchup. I differ... the only thing that will adversley affect Kerley's numbers is when the Jets play a team that just cannot stop the run, like the Colts. The Jets CS doesn't trust Sanchez, and will only throw when they have to. Most of the time, they have to.

Additionally, the remainder of the Jets schedule is one of the easiest in terms of the pass defenses they will face. Miami this week, NE again, and TN and SD in weeks 15 and 16... juicy matchups for FF playoff time.

Mr. Wood seems to be the only staffer that has finally come around on Kerley, but oddly, Kerley keeps getting respect in the weekly rankings. At some point, the lines should converge, shouldn't they?

How many number one recievers on any NFL team are WR3's in FF? I know it's the Jets, I know it's Sanchez, but still... I am tempted to chaulk it up to an anti-Jets bias. But when push comes to shove... the weekly rankings reflect Kerely's value better than many site features seem to. The Jets... the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL.

 

[Bo Skiboski]

This Kerley is no stooge.

 

[Rovers]

This is an excerpt from Mr. Tefertiller's "From the Tape" feature commenting on the NE game:

Jeremy Kerley was able to get hot early in the game with 50 yards (on receptions of 24 and 26 coming on same drive) in the first quarter. He remained Sanchez's favorite target with five more catches for 70 yards the rest of the way. The young receiver now has 25 receptions for 435 yards and two scoring grabs. Kerley is able to get open with relative ease and has great hands.

This is what I have been seeing, and saying about Kerely since Holmes got injured. Good to see some staff paying attention.

cstu- You really have to discount the games that Holmes played in. The Jets passing attack is a completely different animal without Holmes... better if you ask me. Addition by subtraction is the cliche that works here. Holmes was a loud mouth ball hog who was more disruptive than he was constructive on this team. He had Sanchez intimidated. If Sanchez had leadership ability that would not have happened, but Sanchez lacks in that department, amoung others.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I love Rovers talking up Kerley almost as much as I love Jeremy Kerley.

I made a trade that added Desean Jackson for me as a WR3. So Kerley will now weekly be that guy I should have started over someone in my lineup. This week that designation goes to VJax.

I honestly think Kerley keeps it going this weekend. 6 for 80 and due for a score.

 

[squistion]

This Kerley is no stooge.

Oh, wise guy...

 

[Mistabishi]

6 Jack N the Box Egg Rolls

 

[Rovers]

Check out what Bloom says in his "Buy Low/Sell High" feature:

Jeremy Kerley, WR, NY Jets - It might look like Kerley is just fattening up his stat lines while Santonio Holmes is out, but I believe we are seeing a new #1 receiver emerge for the Jets. Kerley is getting open with ease and working both the sidelines and the middle of the field a la Antonio Brown.

I hope I haven't posted too much premium content... but when people ask why long time members still pay for a subscription (as in the FBG(G) rankings complaint thread)... it is well worth the minimal investment.

Sig... you should have listened to me 4 weeks ago! I'm sure you search for my posts all the time, right?

 

[TwinTurbo]

I think the Jets WR core is like the Raiders WR core in that you never know who will get the targets in any given week. If you have to rely on Kerley, you will be happy one week and then get a zero the next. I have Kerley on a couple of rosters, but it's difficult to start him even with a good matchup because of the inconsistency of Sanchez and the fact that Hill and Keller will likely be targeted more going forward.

 

[Trots]

Rovers knows his Jets.

 

[gandalas]

Due to the emergence of Kerley, I was able to take the risk of trading DeSean Jackson for Housler and Josh Gordon in a dynasty league. Jackson was going to be my 5th WR behind Kerley anyway...now Gordon can occupy that slot.

 

[zamboni]

I think the Jets WR core is like the Raiders WR core in that you never know who will get the targets in any given week. If you have to rely on Kerley, you will be happy one week and then get a zero the next. I have Kerley on a couple of rosters, but it's difficult to start him even with a good matchup because of the inconsistency of Sanchez and the fact that Hill and Keller will likely be targeted more going forward.

Not really - Keller will continue to get lots of looks underneath and Hill in the red zone, but Kerley is the guy that Sanchez is looking for.