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LHUCKS

Footballguy
1. Steve Smif

drumroll please....

2. Darrell Jackson

 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
1.  Steve Smif

drumroll please....

2. Darrel Jackson
Drumroll or Rimshot? ;) Not that it's impossible to fathom, but...Care to elaborate?

:popcorn:
Zero Risk, Entering prime of his career, little competition for balls, consistency to spare.Thank you sir, may I have another!

 

BlueDredSo

Footballguy
I'm really hoping that he slips in next years' drafts. Looking at how productive he was before the injury and after he came back I think he'll be in the top 5. Fo sho.

 

packersfan

Footballguy
I've been pimping him for months as a Top 5 WR. His projected full-season numbers for 2005 would have been incredible. I like him a lot heading into 2006.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I definitely see him in the Top 5. Whether he is #2 who knows. I wonder where he will be drafted next year, as taking him as a Top 15 pick, say, seems a bit risky and too soon. Maybe WR 6 or 7?

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Gotta say I am really diggin him coming into the 06 draft.

#2 might be a bit high. 5-7 range seems right.

I would say there is ALWAYS a risk of injury. It took him all year to recover from his knee injury

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
I can see this -

with Edge bolstering the running game - that takes Boldin and Fitz down a notch.

Possible hit to Palmer coming back from ACL takes #85 down a notch.

Santana Moss had a career year - hard to imagine him repeating.

Rams dont throw as much as before w/o Martz - take Holt down a notch.

The sleeper here is Randy Moss, but we have to wait to see who is at QB for Oakland before making a final call there.

I like it, although I still don't like Jackson enough to take him in the 2nd, which is where the WR2 will likely go in most drafts.

 
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joffer

Footballguy
I've been pimping him for months as a Top 5 WR. His projected full-season numbers for 2005 would have been incredible. I like him a lot heading into 2006.
where did he rank in ppg last year?
 

Couch Potato

Footballguy
I've been following the 2006 Zealots initial dynasty drafts, and 9 of the 12 are either complete or far enough along to have a consensus top-20. I know redraft and dynasty will not be fully comparable, and some of the drafts started in early Feb and didn't have all the info we have now, but here are the WRs anyway FYI:

1. Johnson, Chad

2. Fitzgerald, Larry

3. Smith, Steve

4. Holt, Torry

5. Boldin, Anquan

6. Moss, Randy

7. Harrison, Marvin

8. Owens, Terrell

9. Jackson, Darrell

10. Moss, Santana

11. Wayne, Reggie

12. Williams, Roy

13. Burress, Plaxico

14. Johnson, Andre

15. Ward, Hines

16. Chambers, Chris

17. Walker, Javon

18. Houshmandzadeh, T.J.

19. Evans, Lee

20. Edwards, Braylon

 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
I definitely see him in the Top 5. Whether he is #2 who knows. I wonder where he will be drafted next year, as taking him as a Top 15 pick, say, seems a bit risky and too soon. Maybe WR 6 or 7?
The beauty of D-Jax is that you will get #2 production, but you will only have to pay a #7 price. :pickle:

 

schooner44

Footballguy
DJax is a VERY good WR but I assume TO will land somewhere and then there's that guy in Cincy with the gold teeth and the funny endzone celebrations. DJax MIGHT be a top 5 behind Smith, TO & CJ but likely fall into a 6-8 area which will still be an outstanding value on draft day.

 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
And if you guys keep pimpin' him like this, I'll just pick up Engram in the 7th-9th again.
Engram is a good 3rd WR for leagues that start 3 WRs
Dude was a top 5 last year before his ribs got broke, w/ or w/o Jackson. If healthy he's a servicable #2 if your RBs are strong.Edit to add- I'm also in a PPR league.

 
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Rounders

Footballguy
Thanks LHucks for blowing his cover! I agree with you he should be a steal next year, so let's just shut down this thread and file it away in our own minds. Thanks.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I've been pimping him for months as a Top 5 WR. His projected full-season numbers for 2005 would have been incredible. I like him a lot heading into 2006.
where did he rank in ppg last year?
11th (0 ppr). 9th (1 PPR).
thanks, trying to figure out how he gets to #2........ :no:
Risk management is the key. One of Moss/TO/Walker may score more, but all carry more risk with slightly higer upside...hence D-Jax is my #2 WR that I will get at the #9 WR slot...pure value.
 
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joffer

Footballguy
I've been pimping him for months as a Top 5 WR. His projected full-season numbers for 2005 would have been incredible. I like him a lot heading into 2006.
where did he rank in ppg last year?
11th (0 ppr). 9th (1 PPR).
thanks, trying to figure out how he gets to #2........ :no:
Risk management is the key. One of Moss/TO/Walker may score more, but all carry more risk with slightly higer upside...hence D-Jax is my #2 WR that I will get at the #9 WR slot...pure value.
T.O I agree. Moss depends on the QB. he's got less risk than Holt or CJ? His hands are average at best, and there is some injury history.Edit: the highest i can see myself ranking him right now is WR6.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think one should at least consider the risk of reinjury.

Hutchinsons status is still in question here and I think has some bearing on what to expect from the Seattle offense in 06. If they do not resign him I can see Seattle being forced to keep Stevens in to block more and for the running game to not be as effective as it has been. Less TDs for Stevens and Alexander could lead to increased TDs for Jackson.

I think Jackson needs to score 12 TDs to make top 5. The yardage is just not there for him to make it without a big TD spike.

If Hutchinson is resigned then I see pretty much the same formula of success with Alexander happening again which will keep Jackson from reaching top 5 although he will probobly still represent good value as a 4th round pick.

 

SSOG

Moderator
I can see this -

with Edge bolstering the running game - that takes Boldin and Fitz down a notch.

Possible hit to Palmer coming back from ACL takes #85 down a notch.

Santana Moss had a career year - hard to imagine him repeating.

Rams dont throw as much as before w/o Martz - take Holt down a notch.

The sleeper here is Randy Moss, but we have to wait to see who is at QB for Oakland before making a final call there.

I like it, although I still don't like Jackson enough to take him in the 2nd, which is where the WR2 will likely go in most drafts.
I don't think Edge necessarily brings down Boldin/Fitzgerald's value. I think simple regression to the mean brings down Boldin/Fitzgerald's value. That said, didn't Arizona set a record for most attempted field goals last season? Fewer drives stalling means more TDs for Edge... but also more TDs for Boldin/Fitz.As for Darrell Jackson at #2... I like Darrell Jackson, but I don't like that you just assume Steve Smith will be #1. He was phenominal last year, but what are the chances that he's the only target on the entire team again next year? I expect him to drop back more towards his production levels 3 years ago, when both Smith and Muhammed were around. Still very much a WR1, but I wouldn't take him ahead of Chad Johnson.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Okay, so a few people think Chad Johnson should be ranked higher.

What about the Palmer risk??

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
he's got less risk than Holt or CJ? His hands are average at best, and there is some injury history.

Edit: the highest i can see myself ranking him right now is WR6.
I don't think his injury risk is any higher than the other top WRs.As for Holt's risk, new system and Bulger injury history scare me.

As for CJ's risk...Carson Palmer.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
As for Darrell Jackson at #2... I like Darrell Jackson, but I don't like that you just assume Steve Smith will be #1. He was phenominal last year, but what are the chances that he's the only target on the entire team again next year? I expect him to drop back more towards his production levels 3 years ago, when both Smith and Muhammed were around. Still very much a WR1, but I wouldn't take him ahead of Chad Johnson.
Okay. So your primary reason for projecting a drop in Smith's numbers is that you expect Smith's targets to decrease. Why is that?
 
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SSOG

Moderator
Okay, so a few people think Chad Johnson should be ranked higher.

What about the Palmer risk??
What Palmer risk? Johnson was ranked WR 3, WR 9, and WR 4 over the past 3 seasons. One of those seasons, his QB was John Freakin' Kitna. Another of those seasons, his QB was a first-year starter (and Palmer was pretty brutal his first season, aside from the last 4 games). Johnson has shown that he can produce no matter WHO his QB is.
As for Darrell Jackson at #2... I like Darrell Jackson, but I don't like that you just assume Steve Smith will be #1. He was phenominal last year, but what are the chances that he's the only target on the entire team again next year? I expect him to drop back more towards his production levels 3 years ago, when both Smith and Muhammed were around. Still very much a WR1, but I wouldn't take him ahead of Chad Johnson.
Okay. So your primary reason for projecting a drop in Smith's numbers is that you expect Smith's targets to decrease. Why is that?
Steve Smith had over 120 more targets than the #2 WR last season. I don't know where that ranks historically, but it has to be waaaaay up there. It just SCREAMS "outlier" to me. I think there's a great chance that Carolina starts getting its other WRs more involved, and for a team that's traditionally a run-first team, more targets for the WR2 means fewer targets for the WR1.Again, I just tend to downgrade players coming off of historical outlier seasons (i.e. Peyton after 49 TDs, Lewis after 2000 yards, and probably Smith after being a one-man show), operating under the assumption that it's extremely unlikely for them to repeat such a performance, while everyone else will be drafting EXPECTING them to repeat, or at least come close. That's not a recipe for value.

If Smith fell to me, I'd be ecstatic and would grab him in a heartbeat... but I don't expect anything more than WR3-5 production out of him.

 

Doug Drinen

Moderator
Okay, so a few people think Chad Johnson should be ranked higher.

What about the Palmer risk??
Well, Chad Johnson's 2003 season with Kitna at QB was easily better than the best season of Jackson's career.
 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
he's got less risk than Holt or CJ?  His hands are average at best, and there is some injury history.

Edit: the highest i can see myself ranking him right now is WR6.
I don't think his injury risk is any higher than the other top WRs.As for Holt's risk, new system and Bulger injury history scare me.

As for CJ's risk...Carson Palmer.
I think Holt proved last year that no matter who the QB is, he will produce. Linehan is no dummy, he will get his best offensive player the ball.Can you really say you would take Darrell over Holt or CJ?

I agree that Darrell's value at his draft position will the best of the top tier receivers

 

Couch Potato

Footballguy
Let's review a little history going into 2006.

The #1 WR in 2004 (Muhammad) was ranked in the 40s in preseason.

The #1 WR in 2005 (Smith) was ranked in the late teens in preseason.

Anything can happen.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Can you really say you would take Darrell over Holt or CJ?
Depends on the situation...Moss/TO have proven upside. If I want upside Jackson gets bumped down to the #6 range. If I want surefire production he is #2.
 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Can you really say you would take Darrell over Holt or CJ?
Depends on the situation...Moss/TO have proven upside. If I want upside Jackson gets bumped down to the #6 range. If I want surefire production he is #2.
Didnt ask about Moss/TO with all the Q's.What about Holt?

Tory missed 2 games and had a rookie and bum for part of his season as QB and still had 100/1300

 

beto

Footballguy
Can you really say you would take Darrell over Holt or CJ?
Depends on the situation...Moss/TO have proven upside. If I want upside Jackson gets bumped down to the #6 range. If I want surefire production he is #2.
Holt = production
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Okay, so a few people think Chad Johnson should be ranked higher. 

What about  the Palmer risk??
What Palmer risk? Johnson was ranked WR 3, WR 9, and WR 4 over the past 3 seasons. One of those seasons, his QB was John Freakin' Kitna. Another of those seasons, his QB was a first-year starter (and Palmer was pretty brutal his first season, aside from the last 4 games). Johnson has shown that he can produce no matter WHO his QB is.
As for Darrell Jackson at #2... I like Darrell Jackson, but I don't like that you just assume Steve Smith will be #1. He was phenominal last year, but what are the chances that he's the only target on the entire team again next year? I expect him to drop back more towards his production levels 3 years ago, when both Smith and Muhammed were around. Still very much a WR1, but I wouldn't take him ahead of Chad Johnson.
Okay. So your primary reason for projecting a drop in Smith's numbers is that you expect Smith's targets to decrease. Why is that?
Steve Smith had over 120 more targets than the #2 WR last season. I don't know where that ranks historically, but it has to be waaaaay up there. It just SCREAMS "outlier" to me. I think there's a great chance that Carolina starts getting its other WRs more involved, and for a team that's traditionally a run-first team, more targets for the WR2 means fewer targets for the WR1.Again, I just tend to downgrade players coming off of historical outlier seasons (i.e. Peyton after 49 TDs, Lewis after 2000 yards, and probably Smith after being a one-man show), operating under the assumption that it's extremely unlikely for them to repeat such a performance, while everyone else will be drafting EXPECTING them to repeat, or at least come close. That's not a recipe for value.

If Smith fell to me, I'd be ecstatic and would grab him in a heartbeat... but I don't expect anything more than WR3-5 production out of him.
Fair enough, that was the argument I expected. I think it is harder to have a RB repeat 2000 yards than it is for a WR to maintain a lofty number of targets. The fact of the matter remains that SS is easily his teams best weapon and the othe receiving targets on the team pale in comparison. After what he did in the playoffs its difficult for me to put anybody ahead of him. We're not too far off here...there are bigger fish to fry.

 

fridayfrenzy

Footballguy
Okay, so a few people think Chad Johnson should be ranked higher.

What about the Palmer risk??
What Palmer risk? Johnson was ranked WR 3, WR 9, and WR 4 over the past 3 seasons. One of those seasons, his QB was John Freakin' Kitna. Another of those seasons, his QB was a first-year starter (and Palmer was pretty brutal his first season, aside from the last 4 games). Johnson has shown that he can produce no matter WHO his QB is.
As for Darrell Jackson at #2... I like Darrell Jackson, but I don't like that you just assume Steve Smith will be #1. He was phenominal last year, but what are the chances that he's the only target on the entire team again next year? I expect him to drop back more towards his production levels 3 years ago, when both Smith and Muhammed were around. Still very much a WR1, but I wouldn't take him ahead of Chad Johnson.
Okay. So your primary reason for projecting a drop in Smith's numbers is that you expect Smith's targets to decrease. Why is that?
Steve Smith had over 120 more targets than the #2 WR last season. I don't know where that ranks historically, but it has to be waaaaay up there. It just SCREAMS "outlier" to me. I think there's a great chance that Carolina starts getting its other WRs more involved, and for a team that's traditionally a run-first team, more targets for the WR2 means fewer targets for the WR1.Again, I just tend to downgrade players coming off of historical outlier seasons (i.e. Peyton after 49 TDs, Lewis after 2000 yards, and probably Smith after being a one-man show), operating under the assumption that it's extremely unlikely for them to repeat such a performance, while everyone else will be drafting EXPECTING them to repeat, or at least come close. That's not a recipe for value.

If Smith fell to me, I'd be ecstatic and would grab him in a heartbeat... but I don't expect anything more than WR3-5 production out of him.
Fair enough, that was the argument I expected. I think it is harder to have a RB repeat 2000 yards than it is for a WR to maintain a lofty number of targets. The fact of the matter remains that SS is easily his teams best weapon and the othe receiving targets on the team pale in comparison. After what he did in the playoffs its difficult for me to put anybody ahead of him. We're not too far off here...there are bigger fish to fry.
Teams will look to the Seattle playoff game to help completely shut him down.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Can you really say you would take Darrell over Holt or CJ?
Depends on the situation...Moss/TO have proven upside. If I want upside Jackson gets bumped down to the #6 range. If I want surefire production he is #2.
Didnt ask about Moss/TO with all the Q's.What about Holt?

Tory missed 2 games and had a rookie and bum for part of his season as QB and still had 100/1300
Bulger hasn't exactly been an ironman...QB risk is evident. Also, I believe any switch from Martz equals a decrease in opportunity for WRs. Whether or not that equates into lesser targets for Holt is yet to be seen, but I would bet that it does. Yes Linehan knows he's the man, but that doesn't necessarily equate into Holt = #1 WR in FF.
 

fsufan

Footballguy
Let's review a little history going into 2006.

The #1 WR in 2004 (Muhammad) was ranked in the 40s in preseason.

The #1 WR in 2005 (Smith) was ranked in the late teens in preseason.

Anything can happen.
WRs are crap shots year in year out.
 

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