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My Thoughts on Lacy vs. Franklin (1 Viewer)

Gawain

Footballguy
Does your thinking that neither of them should go in the top-5 apply to non-PPR as well? In PPR I could see Gio, Bell, Austin, Patterson and Hopkins ahead of him, but in standard scoring, can you justify Patterson/Hopkins ahead of them as well?

 

Warhogs

Footballguy
The situation seems similar to Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley a few years back. It does seem like a buyer beware situation and makes it tough to want to grab either in the first half of rookie drafts.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
draft slot means very little once camp starts.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
draft slot means very little once camp starts.
I somewhat agree. But it’s a sign of what the professionals think of each player, and, thus, invest. The farther we get from the first pick in the draft, the lower the odds of relevance are. The last 4th round RB picks to matter were both drafted in 2005.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
draft slot means very little once camp starts.
I somewhat agree. But it’s a sign of what the professionals think of each player, and, thus, invest. The farther we get from the first pick in the draft, the lower the odds of relevance are. The last 4th round RB picks to matter were both drafted in 2005.
Lamar Miller was a 4th rounder last year. Id say he matters right now.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s.

It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
draft slot means very little once camp starts.
I somewhat agree. But it’s a sign of what the professionals think of each player, and, thus, invest. The farther we get from the first pick in the draft, the lower the odds of relevance are. The last 4th round RB picks to matter were both drafted in 2005.
I used to think that way and it's usually the case that teams prefer the player they draft higher but that's not always the case. Not that any of them turned out to be anything but I remember when the Rams selected Pettis before Salas and wondering why Salas was being picked higher in most drafts. Turns out Salas did get playing time before Pettis.

Last year we saw Richardson surpass Pead. We saw Ridley get drafted later than Vereen and pass him. Givens pass Quick last year. Probably a lot of other examples but these are recent one's that come to mind of a team spending multiple picks on the same position and opting to go with the later pick.

 

Matt Waldman

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Lamar Miller was a 4th rounder last year. Id say he matters right now.
Fair point, and good example. I think he's largely an exception, however. I'll be interested to see where Franklin's ADP ends at the end of the next few weeks. I just have a hard to getting excited about a 4th round NFL pick with a likely starter already on the roster. I'll be taking Michael and considering Davis over him, as well as players at the other positions. We'll see.

 

football fan

Footballguy
Sorry, but I can't get the Lacy part of this article out of my head. I know he has risks, but he also has some great potential.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000165049/article/tank-carradine-marcus-lattimore-among-2013-nfl-draft-steals

4) Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama -- Green Bay Packers, Round 2, No. 61

Many people rated Lacy as the top running back in this draft and projected him as a possible first-round pick. Still, he makes this list largely because of the team that drafted him. The Packers will spread out defenses, providing Lacy with a bunch of one-on-one opportunities against defensive backs. His size and physical running style will create problems for safeties isolated in space. Lacy could have a big year in Green Bay, as defenses must concentrate on stopping Aaron Rodgers, first and foremost.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.

ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.

 
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BigJim®

Footballguy
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s.

It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
draft slot means very little once camp starts.
I somewhat agree. But it’s a sign of what the professionals think of each player, and, thus, invest. The farther we get from the first pick in the draft, the lower the odds of relevance are. The last 4th round RB picks to matter were both drafted in 2005.
I used to think that way and it's usually the case that teams prefer the player they draft higher but that's not always the case. Not that any of them turned out to be anything but I remember when the Rams selected Pettis before Salas and wondering why Salas was being picked higher in most drafts. Turns out Salas did get playing time before Pettis.

Last year we saw Richardson surpass Pead. We saw Ridley get drafted later than Vereen and pass him. Givens pass Quick last year. Probably a lot of other examples but these are recent one's that come to mind of a team spending multiple picks on the same position and opting to go with the later pick.
To a lesser extent, DeVier Posey (3.05) vs Keshawn Martin (4.26) is an example from last year.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.

ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.
think they are just trying to say it really doesn't matter what round they are drafted in....it means nothing at this point.....they will now both be given a chance when they tee it up at training camp....Lacy doesn't get any bonus points for being drafted 2 rounds earlier once camp opens up....

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored
I've been realistic about Lacy's value, post NFL draft. It's certainly down, and there are certainly concerns.

I am talking about investment, and what a late 4th round pick means. Should Charles and Lynch be worried? Was Gerhart drafted to compete with Peterson? Pierce with Rice? Turbin with Lynch?

I understand that Lacy is not Lynch, Charles, or Peterson. I understand that because of that, Franklin's path to carries is more clear. But he's still a 4th round rookie pick drafted to provide depth. I don't see 1st round rookie draft value there.

 
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tdmills

Footballguy
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored
I've been realistic about Lacy's value, post NFL draft. It's certainly down, and there are certainly concerns.

I am talking about investment, and what a late 4th round pick means. Should Charles and Lynch be worried?
It's called hedging your bet.

1) Many years ago the Redskins drafted QB Heath Shuler high in round 1, but then drafted Gus Frerotte later on(round 7 I believe). Gus Frerotte ended up winning that job in only his second season.

2) In 1999, the GB Packers drafted a CB in rounds 1,2,3,7. Round 1 was Antuan Edwards, Round 2 was Fred Vinson, Round 3 was Mike McKenzie, Round 7 was Chris Adkins. McKenzie started every game as a rookie, while Edwards started 1 game and Edwards started 1 game.

No Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles shouldn't be worried because they're established NFL stars. Eddie Lacy should be worried because he's never carried the full load, many times a true freshman(TJ Yeldon) carried the rock in crucial situations. I personally see this as a committee moving forward, with Lacy having the best odds of getting the most touches.

 

football fan

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.

ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored
Green Bay wants to become more physical in their play, I wouldn't ignore Franklin taking touches from Lacy, but I wouldn't guarantee it either. Green Bay needed RBs badly, time will tell how many touched each gets. With that passing game, Lacy could put up some great ff numbers with limited touches, even with Franklin on the roster. No disrespect to anyone's opinion.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
It's called hedging your bet.

1) Many years ago the Redskins drafted QB Heath Shuler high in round 1, but then drafted Gus Frerotte later on(round 7 I believe). Gus Frerotte ended up winning that job in only his second season.

2) In 1999, the GB Packers drafted a CB in rounds 1,2,3,7. Round 1 was Antuan Edwards, Round 2 was Fred Vinson, Round 3 was Mike McKenzie, Round 7 was Chris Adkins. McKenzie started every game as a rookie, while Edwards started 1 game and Edwards started 1 game.

No Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles shouldn't be worried because they're established NFL stars. Eddie Lacy should be worried because he's never carried the full load, many times a true freshman(TJ Yeldon) carried the rock in crucial situations. I personally see this as a committee moving forward, with Lacy having the best odds of getting the most touches.
The Packers don't like a committee and called Lacy a 3 down back. He'll be good enough and healthy enough, or he won't be. But it won't be because of Franklin or the fact that the team used a 4th round pick on a RB.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored
I've been realistic about Lacy's value, post NFL draft. It's certainly down, and there are certainly concerns.

I am talking about investment, and what a late 4th round pick means. Should Charles and Lynch be worried?
personally I think you are getting too caught up in the "rounds" these guys are getting drafted in and the potential impact you think it has on their value....

if you choose to devalue a RB that just got drafted in the 4th round because some other completely different dude was drafted in that same "round" 6 years ago by some completely other different team then so be it.....

the fact that "4th round" RB's have or haven't been successful means nothing right now with Franklin....

there are way more important things to factor in when assessing value.......what round they were drafted in should be pretty low in that list....

talent

opportunity

situation

fill

in

the

rest

through

here

what round they were drafted in

their favorite super hero

 
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tdmills

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.

ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.
Coop, you love Lacy...we get it. We're not saying Lacy can't be a good FF or NFL RB. We're saying that Jonathan Franklin has reduced his value. You don't think so, that's fine. But Bloom/Me/several others have stated that by pairing Franklin with Lacy, it has reduced both players values. This option shouldn't be ignored
Green Bay wants to become more physical in their play, I wouldn't ignore Franklin taking touches from Lacy, but I wouldn't guarantee it either. Green Bay needed RBs badly, time will tell how many touched each gets. With that passing game, Lacy could put up some great ff numbers with limited touches, even with Franklin on the roster. No disrespect to anyone's opinion.
I don't disagree and I think Lacy wins the job. I'm just saying it's not as much of a guarantee now that Franklin was drafted.

GB throws a bunch near the GL, maybe because they didn't have a good RB, but Rodgers throws a lot. Benson had 1 TD in the 5 games he played/Kuhn had 1 TD as well.

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Hey Sig,

Listening to 'On the Couch' as I type this and you opened with an insight into saying that the NFL has incorporated the zone-read-option and Pistol formations/schemes/packages into the NFL so the line has been blurred but you said something interesting.

You mentioned the 'AIR RAID' offense and you feel that the NFL will incorporate some 'AIR RAID' into their offenses this year.

You might see where I'm going with this but you didn't mention it in the podcast.

New York Jets just cut Tebow, and hopefully I'll never type that name again on these boards, and drafted Geno Smith....

Geno came from an 'AIR RAID' offense.

Um, well do you think the Jets could or should incorporate some 'AIR RAID' into their offense?

I thought you would touch ont that in the podcast but neither you or Waldman did but I thought since you brought it up that it begged the question...

Do you think the Jets will bring in some 'AIR RAID' into that offense for Geno Smith?

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
personally I think you are getting too caught up in the "rounds" these guys are getting drafted in and the potential impact you think it has on their value....

if you choose to devalue a RB that just got drafted in the 4th round because some other completely different dude was drafted in that same "round" 6 years ago by some completely other different team then so be it.....

the fact that "4th round" RB's have or haven't been successful means nothing right now with Franklin....

there are way more important things to factor in when assessing value.......what round they were drafted in should be pretty low in that list....

talent

opportunity

situation

fill

in

the

rest

though

here

what round they were drafted in

their favorite super hero
I hate to take away (distract) from Bloom's article, and think we might be a bit OT, here. My apologies and not my intention, but I do want to address this. Show me someone with a good history of picking which 4-UDFA will pan out, AND drafting, or suggesting they be drafted, accordingly. The trends are there. The hit rate in the first round is 50%. The 2nd round – less than 25%. Beyond that, you’re looking at less than 15%. Show me someone that can pick the 1.5 out of 10+ to pick with any success.

It’s easy to say it doesn’t matter because of Arian Foster and Alfred Morris – but it does. There is a reason Foster and Morris weren’t 1st round rookie picks. There is a reason Vick Ballard wasn’t a first round rookie pick. So, it’s easy to point to them and suggest that we should be able to predict them. But who has done it? They better have a pretty good hit rate to suggest using a top 10 pick on others in their situation.

 
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football fan

Footballguy
Green Bay always throws a lot at the goal line, even back when they won the Super Bowl, they threw a lot of TD passes to TEs Keith Jackson and Mark Churma.

With no RBs to speak of before the NFL, I see potential for room for two good RBs in Green Bay offensive system. Maybe both can put up good numbers.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Green Bay always throws a lot at the goal line, even back when they won the Super Bowl, they threw a lot of TD passes to TEs Keith Jackson and Mark Churma.

With no RBs to speak of before the NFL, I see potential for room for two good RBs in Green Bay offensive system. Maybe both can put up good numbers.
This is a bit of a tangent, but that very well may be the case.

Look at the weapons they have coming up as free agents:

after 2013 season= Finley, James Jones

after 2014 season= Jordy Nelson

I'm sure they will resign or get other players to fill(they will still have Cobb). But they very well could be looking at a balanced attack in the near future.

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
Matt,

I'm going OT but just listened to 'On The Couch' and have to say I LOVED your historical musical perspective.

Bonus points for using both Sly Stone AND Cab Caloway with subtext references to bebop.

Extremely underappreciated and over the heads of the vast majority but well-deserving of mega-props. :bowtie: :bow:

 

Jeremy

Footballguy
Harris will get a few carries as well. Sounds like a N.O. type running back situation, only with a worst offensive line. :yucky:

 

menobrown

Footballguy
With no RBs to speak of before the NFL, I see potential for room for two good RBs in Green Bay offensive system. Maybe both can put up good numbers.
That seems like a lot. This offense may not be a true RBBC but it's a situational RB rotation and one of the reasons why such a dominant offense has, to my recollection, not so much as produced a single fantasy RB2 since 2009. Seems hard to reconcile that information and come away thinking two can produce at useful levels.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
With no RBs to speak of before the NFL, I see potential for room for two good RBs in Green Bay offensive system. Maybe both can put up good numbers.
That seems like a lot. This offense may not be a true RBBC but it's a situational RB rotation and one of the reasons why such a dominant offense has, to my recollection, not so much as produced a single fantasy RB2 since 2009. Seems hard to reconcile that information and come away thinking two can produce at useful levels.
I agree; they're not likely to support two top 30 RB options. But they went RBBC due to injury and talent. I don't think it's likely a situational RB rotation. They rode guys like Benson, Harris, Starks, on a per game basis. None of them stayed healthy or productive for an entire season, though.

If it is a time share, Lacy's value takes a major hit. Not sure how likely that is, though.

 
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TheLurkerBelow

Footballguy
I think at this point in the fantasy season (or pre-season) draft position is a very big deal. It says a lot about teams' perceived talent level of the player as they head into the NFL, it correlates directly with the amount of pay and cap investment a team makes in a player, and generally sets a starting point from which a player and the team will proceed with into the season. Look at it this way, if this were a footrace and the winner becomes the feature back, a second round draft pick is given a head start over a fourth round pick. That doesn't mean the second rounder automatically wins the job, but they'll be given a lot more consideration for the position than the later round pick will.

Also, at this point in the season draft position is one of the major data points we have in player evaluation. If you're holding a dynasty draft any time before NFL camps and pre-season games start, draft position should be something you consider very heavily because far more often than not it will correlate with a player's chance of success at this next level.

No it's not the end all be all, there are always exceptions, and situations, including a player's skills and how much they are a match with the team's play philosophy, are critical. But until you see them play against NFL competition, it should be a major factor in your draft boards.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
IMO using a trend based on what round a player was drafted is flawed. It essentially assumes that every year is equal in terms of need at a given position (and relative to their other positional needs) and value across the league of that position. A slightly better method would be to use where a player was drafted at his position (i.e., 1st RB taken, etc.), but that still suffers from the same general issues.

I agree with those saying that the best approach is to generally ignore draft round at this point in favor of examining talent, opportunity/situation, and health/injury history.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
it correlates directly with the amount of pay and cap investment a team makes in a player, and generally sets a starting point from which a player and the team will proceed with into the season.
I think this is exactly why we are seeing what seems to be an increase in lower picked players getting playing time over higher picked players. The pay structure difference used to be significant and is now so minor as to be almost inconsequential.

Use this example. Mikel Leshoure was picked in a similar areas as Lacy so I'm going to assume his pay will be similar because that's pretty much how it works these days. Leshoure's total cap number this season is $804,000 and that included prorating his bonus. Now take a 4th round RB drafted close to Franklin, which in this example I'll use Helu. His cap number next season is $672,565 when including his bonus. Alfred Morris, a 6th rounder, will count $511,000 next season.

So really in the grand scheme of things the money is not much different any longer and not really a factor in terms of PT like it probably historically was.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Look at it this way, if this were a footrace and the winner becomes the feature back, a second round draft pick is given a head start over a fourth round pick. That doesn't mean the second rounder automatically wins the job, but they'll be given a lot more consideration for the position than the later round pick will.
Good teams don't work this way. Draft slot vanishes when you walk into your first camp.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I agree with those saying that the best approach is to generally ignore draft round at this point in favor of examining talent, opportunity/situation, and health/injury history.
But could we find anyone with a better track record than the NFL? 50% hit rate in round one, less than 25% in round 2. It just goes down from there, the 4th giving us a couple RB1s a decade. Throwing that information out the window, and ignoring what 32 professional franchises think and invest - that seems a bit much.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
The last 6th round pick at RB to matter was drafted in 2012. The last UDFA RB to matter was Arian Foster. or was it Vick Ballard? Or . . .

I don't think it's wise to use data that way with round and what matters, but I'm an unabashed, look at the player play type of guy . . . draft position is often about risk management as much as talent, if not more in some cases.
The trends are too hard to ignore, in my opinion. Sure, Ballard was a 5th rounder that worked out, Morris was a 6th, and Foster wasn't drafted. But it seems we're pointing at exceptions and calling it a rule. For every Ballard, there are countless Dan Herrons and Mike Harts. If we make it a practice of using top 6-12 picks on said players, we're going to lose.

ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.
Or..you are ignoring the new trend of history and letting the NFL model from 20 years ago skew your thoughts. Doesn't it seem that more than ever before, the changes in the NFL have completely plummeted the value of real life Rbs? If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL before 2007 or so, I would say that THE model is to grab a guy late and they have as good a shot as anyone. If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL after 2007 or so, I would say draft them high and draft them often. I think the times have changed and we get caught up in it.

Even to the point of Green Bay drafting Lacy first and then Franklin and using that to assume that the team values one much stronger, I think that is a bit short-sighted. Like Bloom says above, once you are in camp, draft position means little. Especially for this team. Didn't they draft Brohm in the 2nd and Flynn late? Which one of those guys plays in the NFl still and which one doesn't?

I think for some teams (the good ones), its a lot like people in the Shark Pool. You can see a guy you LOVE, but you know your competition well enough to know that I need to take this guys first because he won't be there later. But I can take him first and the other guys won't take the guy I LOVE and I can get him later. And they (and we in our FF leagues) base this all on knowing who does their homework and who is a lemming.

 

TheLurkerBelow

Footballguy
Look at it this way, if this were a footrace and the winner becomes the feature back, a second round draft pick is given a head start over a fourth round pick. That doesn't mean the second rounder automatically wins the job, but they'll be given a lot more consideration for the position than the later round pick will.
Good teams don't work this way. Draft slot vanishes when you walk into your first camp.
I would like to believe that, but how many teams actually operate as a "good team". For instance, could you honestly say that if Kirk Cousins outplayed RGIII in the pre-season last year that he would have won the starting job? Maybe for less high profile players it's true. Vereen/Ridley and Pead/Richardson were already stated as good examples of lower round players who took on more playing time than their higher drafted counterpart. I still believe that human nature, and confirmation bias, fed by team opinions that relate to draft slot, play a factor.

I want to clarify and point out that in my post I'm heavily emphasizing how much we as fantasy owners should consider draft slot before NFL camps open. Once we all see how they perform on the field at this level, a draft slot's importance becomes very minor. Perhaps only relegated to an idea of talent and how long a team may choose to give a player time to reach their potential, or how likely another team is to give an under performing player another shot. (see Donnie Avery)

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Or..you are ignoring the new trend of history and letting the NFL model from 20 years ago skew your thoughts. Doesn't it seem that more than ever before, the changes in the NFL have completely plummeted the value of real life Rbs? If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL before 2007 or so, I would say that THE model is to grab a guy late and they have as good a shot as anyone. If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL after 2007 or so, I would say draft them high and draft them often. I think the times have changed and we get caught up in it.

Even to the point of Green Bay drafting Lacy first and then Franklin and using that to assume that the team values one much stronger, I think that is a bit short-sighted. Like Bloom says above, once you are in camp, draft position means little. Especially for this team. Didn't they draft Brohm in the 2nd and Flynn late? Which one of those guys plays in the NFl still and which one doesn't?

I think for some teams (the good ones), its a lot like people in the Shark Pool. You can see a guy you LOVE, but you know your competition well enough to know that I need to take this guys first because he won't be there later. But I can take him first and the other guys won't take the guy I LOVE and I can get him later. And they (and we in our FF leagues) base this all on knowing who does their homework and who is a lemming.
If I am ignoring a trend, can you please provide the breakdown? I’m interested to see you display your claim that those drafted later are just as likely to hit as those drafted ahead of them.

The notion that GB LOVED Franklin, but drafted Lacy over him, despite liking him less is silly, in my opinion. Maybe the Chiefs like Lacy more than Fisher but thought they could get him in the 3rd. Maybe he was the #1 prospect on their board, but their gamble didn't pay off?

 
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Shutout

Footballguy
it correlates directly with the amount of pay and cap investment a team makes in a player, and generally sets a starting point from which a player and the team will proceed with into the season.
I think this is exactly why we are seeing what seems to be an increase in lower picked players getting playing time over higher picked players. The pay structure difference used to be significant and is now so minor as to be almost inconsequential.

Use this example. Mikel Leshoure was picked in a similar areas as Lacy so I'm going to assume his pay will be similar because that's pretty much how it works these days. Leshoure's total cap number this season is $804,000 and that included prorating his bonus. Now take a 4th round RB drafted close to Franklin, which in this example I'll use Helu. His cap number next season is $672,565 when including his bonus. Alfred Morris, a 6th rounder, will count $511,000 next season.

So really in the grand scheme of things the money is not much different any longer and not really a factor in terms of PT like it probably historically was.
These are good points that need to be realistically factored in. Six years ago, you almost couldn't survive the backlash if you wanted to start a Wr you picked in the third round over one you took with the 11th overall pick but now you can send all those guys into camp and say "the best will play".

 

smackdaddies

Footballguy
Look at it this way, if this were a footrace and the winner becomes the feature back, a second round draft pick is given a head start over a fourth round pick. That doesn't mean the second rounder automatically wins the job, but they'll be given a lot more consideration for the position than the later round pick will.
Good teams don't work this way. Draft slot vanishes when you walk into your first camp.
Especially the Packers. The Pack have gone with late round/uda over higher picks plenty of time. They will give high draft picks time to prove themselves, but only the producers get started

 

smackdaddies

Footballguy
Unmentioned is the weather - I think you could see more Franklin at the start, but more Lacy as the weather turns cold and the footing turns treacherous.

Plus Franklins fumble issues of 2 years ago. Last season he fixed them, but if they come back, Franklin will be a bench warmer.

I could see both in the backfield with Franklin motioning out to a slot on a Rodgers audible. Potentially even both.

I think the Packers offense will get even more creative.

 

Heep

Footballguy
I'd add age as a plus for Lacy. Franklin turns 24 in October. Lacy is 16 months younger than Franklin meaning he could "redshirt" this year and still would be younger than Franklin is this year. Not a huge factor, but when you look at running backs falling off atl age 30, I look at it...

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Or..you are ignoring the new trend of history and letting the NFL model from 20 years ago skew your thoughts. Doesn't it seem that more than ever before, the changes in the NFL have completely plummeted the value of real life Rbs? If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL before 2007 or so, I would say that THE model is to grab a guy late and they have as good a shot as anyone. If I forget everything I ever knew about the NFL after 2007 or so, I would say draft them high and draft them often. I think the times have changed and we get caught up in it.

Even to the point of Green Bay drafting Lacy first and then Franklin and using that to assume that the team values one much stronger, I think that is a bit short-sighted. Like Bloom says above, once you are in camp, draft position means little. Especially for this team. Didn't they draft Brohm in the 2nd and Flynn late? Which one of those guys plays in the NFl still and which one doesn't?

I think for some teams (the good ones), its a lot like people in the Shark Pool. You can see a guy you LOVE, but you know your competition well enough to know that I need to take this guys first because he won't be there later. But I can take him first and the other guys won't take the guy I LOVE and I can get him later. And they (and we in our FF leagues) base this all on knowing who does their homework and who is a lemming.
If I am ignoring a trend, can you please provide the breakdown? I’m interested to see you display your claim that those drafted later are just as likely to hit as those drafted ahead of them.

The notion that GB LOVED Franklin, but drafted Lacy over him, despite liking him less is silly, in my opinion.
I'm just speaking generally Coop and saying that the financial model of the NFL has alleviated a great deal of pressure to play one guy over the other and that its possible that the Packers might have just happened to draft both because they actually think both COULD be the guy and they won't be blinded by the spot they took them in.

I really don't think there is a better example I can give than Brohm and Flynn. The took Brohm much higher, paid him much more, but when camp occurred and over time as they saw these guys actually play in their system, they chose the lower drafted guy over the higher.

I don't want to sling snot in a discussion like this or offend anyone but I just think it is pretty clear that WE (the FF players) are going to feel immense pressure to take Lacy over Franklin because to do anything else is absolutely counter to everything we have ever known BUT the reality of it is simple: we don't always know what the team knows..in fact, we seldom do.

Even if Lacy was the Packers first pick, that would probably completely nix this whole conversation. But we could still be wrong...by a mile. We could be taking Brohm by drafting Lacy and the Packers might see Flynn in Franklin. Just saying that once they rides those bicycles into camp, that draft slot isn't going to help Lacy gain one more yard, turn one more head, or sway the coaches.

 

TheLurkerBelow

Footballguy
it correlates directly with the amount of pay and cap investment a team makes in a player, and generally sets a starting point from which a player and the team will proceed with into the season.
I think this is exactly why we are seeing what seems to be an increase in lower picked players getting playing time over higher picked players. The pay structure difference used to be significant and is now so minor as to be almost inconsequential.

Use this example. Mikel Leshoure was picked in a similar areas as Lacy so I'm going to assume his pay will be similar because that's pretty much how it works these days. Leshoure's total cap number this season is $804,000 and that included prorating his bonus. Now take a 4th round RB drafted close to Franklin, which in this example I'll use Helu. His cap number next season is $672,565 when including his bonus. Alfred Morris, a 6th rounder, will count $511,000 next season.

So really in the grand scheme of things the money is not much different any longer and not really a factor in terms of PT like it probably historically was.
That's an excellent point.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I'm just speaking generally Coop and saying that the financial model of the NFL has alleviated a great deal of pressure to play one guy over the other and that its possible that the Packers might have just happened to draft both because they actually think both COULD be the guy and they won't be blinded by the spot they took them in.

I really don't think there is a better example I can give than Brohm and Flynn. The took Brohm much higher, paid him much more, but when camp occurred and over time as they saw these guys actually play in their system, they chose the lower drafted guy over the higher.

I don't want to sling snot in a discussion like this or offend anyone but I just think it is pretty clear that WE (the FF players) are going to feel immense pressure to take Lacy over Franklin because to do anything else is absolutely counter to everything we have ever known BUT the reality of it is simple: we don't always know what the team knows..in fact, we seldom do.

Even if Lacy was the Packers first pick, that would probably completely nix this whole conversation. But we could still be wrong...by a mile. We could be taking Brohm by drafting Lacy and the Packers might see Flynn in Franklin. Just saying that once they rides those bicycles into camp, that draft slot isn't going to help Lacy gain one more yard, turn one more head, or sway the coaches.
Yes, I can't disprove anything that hasn't been given the opportunity to happen. Franklin COULD lead the league in rushing this year. I am not going to draft him at 1.01 because of that.

Franklin is an average RB prospect that the pros let fall to the end of the 4th round. The pros can be wrong, but that doesn't mean that they are now.

We have to go based on what we know. Draft position is the most clear picture of what the 32 professional teams and their resources feel about players. It’s not perfect, but it’s as close as we get.

I thought Eddie Lacy was a first rounder. 32 franchises told me that I was wrong – most of them more than once. That matters. He is worth less to me than he was 72 hours ago. But not because the team drafted a RB at the end of the 4th round.

And don't worry about offending me, please. You're coming off as respectful and I hope I am too. We just have different opinions on the matter, which isn't a negative at all.

 

Time Kibitzer

Footballguy
IMO using a trend based on what round a player was drafted is flawed. It essentially assumes that every year is equal in terms of need at a given position (and relative to their other positional needs) and value across the league of that position. A slightly better method would be to use where a player was drafted at his position (i.e., 1st RB taken, etc.), but that still suffers from the same general issues.

I agree with those saying that the best approach is to generally ignore draft round at this point in favor of examining talent, opportunity/situation, and health/injury history.
I think the mistake you're making here is that you're assuming what round one is drafted in and talent are mutually exclusive entities, when in actuality that's not the case. The fact that there is a trend suggests that on the whole, the players drafted in the earliest rounds are the most talented. It's far from a perfect correlation, but it's undoubtedly still a very significant correlation.

In the particular case of Lacy vs. Franklin, I think the question of which one is perceived to be more talented (and all but likely is more talented imo) has an obvious answer. The fact that Franklin was a 4th round pick despite having no injury or character concerns (at least none that I know of) implies to me that the Packers view Franklin as a 4th round talent, as there's no other reason that would explain his drop to the 4th round. The fact that Lacy was a 2nd round pick despite having both injury and character concerns implies to me that the Packers view Lacy as a 2nd round talent and possibly even a 1st round talent, as his injury/character concerns could conceivably explain his drop to the 2nd round.

So if we're judging these players based on talent, opportunity/situation, and injury/character history, I don't see how anyone can think Lacy doesn't have the leg up in both talent and therefore opportunity.

 
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snichols

Footballguy
It seems like a stretch to suggest Franklin's value being in the 6-12 range, or close to Lacy’s. I don't think you could justify that if he was the first back taken by GB, after going late in the fourth, even.
In theory they could have had Lacy as their RB 2 and Frankln as their RB 3 on their board. Just so happens Franklin fell, in this case their "opinion" of the players may be darn near identical.

 

cstu

Footballguy
I thought Eddie Lacy was a first rounder. 32 franchises told me that I was wrong – most of them more than once. That matters. He is worth less to me than he was 72 hours ago. But not because the team drafted a RB at the end of the 4th round.
It's not a factor you can ignore IMO. Franklin is a still a talented RB they used a 4th round pick on so they will get him on the field.

 

Alex P Keaton

Footballguy
ETA: And show me the guy that predicted Foster, Ballard, Morris, and drafted them accordingly. I'll take his word for it, but, the rest is hindsight and outliers.
I didn't draft all 3 guys - but I did draft Ahmad Bradshaw, Tim Hightower, and Alfred Morris. To your point though, I wasn't crazy enough to draft any of them in the 1st round. If my memory serves, all of them were roughly 4th round picks in a 12-team rookie draft. So they presented good value at the time - upside relative to their cost. If the cost would have been a 1st round pick, my confidence level just wasn't there for those guys.

 

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