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Nick Foles vs Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ShaHBucks
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
Where does Indy rank if you back out Luck's rushing? Where does Philly rank if you back out all teams starting QBs, not just theirs? I know last year, they still rank 2 if all QBs are backed out. Not 3. I also know Indy ranks 29 if we back out just Luck.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Where Indy ranks is irrelevant. I replied to your assertion the Eagles have been a consistent top running team when the fact is, their rushing numbers were greatly inflated by one of the league's best running QBs, something Foles certainly is not. So to try to compare apples to apples, I removed Vick's rushing numbers which greatly reduces the team rankings. Far from top 5. Andy Reid didn't have a top 5 rushing offense till '10, when Vick took over. Without Vick's rushing numbers there were very average. Until 2013...
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jurb26
Footballguy
You didn't compare apples to apples. Far from it. You took one team and removed their QB rushing totals and no other teams.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
You're right, the rankings aren't exact. But you have to admit their team rankings are helped greatly by Vick, no? And the team ranked even higher with a non-mobile QB in Nick Foles. Legit top3 without Foles running the ball. Let's not pretend Vick doesn't boosts the numbers greatly. 600+ yds from your QB will do that. Andy Reid was a pass-first play caller and Vick accumulated a lot of scrambling yards. To ignore that is being disingenuous.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I agree, Vick made an impact. Good players do and Vick was a good player at that point. McCoy is a good player as well, though. You seem to want to dismiss that to prove some point about Foles. It's really no different in the end. McCoy's presence helps. We can debate how much if you want but you have to at least acknowledge that much.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I agree with everything you say here. But to say the Eagles under Andy Reid were a top running team is just false. The team's rushing numbers were inflated by Vick. All I'm saying is under Kelly/Foles, they beat those numbers significantly last year. I agree with Xue that its Kelly's system that emphasized a balanced attack - something made possible by the efficiency of Foles.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
People are so quick to discount Foles yet he took a 4-win team the previous year, 2 and 4 when he took over, to a division title and a what would have been a playoff win had it not been for poor ST & Def play. He went 8-2 after taking over a team was a combined 14-24 over their last 38.
And McCoy was the RB for all 48 of those games.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I'm not trying to discount Foles at all. I like him a great deal and think his season and what he's shown are amazing this far. I stated in my first post I think him and Luck are neck in neck in redraft. I do have concerns, though. He played a historically easy schedule, has a small sample size and lost his best WR. Despite those things it seems many are expecting him to simply pick up where last season left off. Unfortunately in the NFL it doesn't normally work that way. There are highs and lows. I'm feeling like last year was a bit of a high. His ceiling? I'm not sure. Maybe, maybe not. But simply projecting out his stats from last year to this year over a full 16 games we get something like:
4200 yds, 39 TDs and 3 Ints with over 60% completion and 9+ YPA.
Now that would be a historically good season. Could it happen? Of course. Is it likely? I don't think so. I just don't think it's this simple. There are things working against this kind of performance over a sustained 16 games.
4200 yds, 39 TDs and 3 Ints with over 60% completion and 9+ YPA.
Now that would be a historically good season. Could it happen? Of course. Is it likely? I don't think so. I just don't think it's this simple. There are things working against this kind of performance over a sustained 16 games.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
My apologies if I lumped you in with that. I don't expect the same level of success as that TD/Int ratio is unsustainable (probably). I do think they'll be affected by things like a tougher schedule, teams seeing more on tape, etc. But I also expect the team will grow with more experience as players and Kelly's system.
Xue
Footballguy
My point is that Kelly improved the offense more than Foles/Vick and McCoy did or could have by themselves. McCoy's YPC and Vick's YPA had declined 2 years in a row before Kelly showed up.jurb26 said:
Also, Cooper, McCoy, and Celek had a career high YAC and Jackson had his highest YAC since 2010. Smaller sample sizes, but even Bryce Brown and Chris Polk both had 10+ YAC.
I would imagine all these guys had a lot of running room as well as Foles putting the ball in places where the WRs/TE could create more yards.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I looked through the Nick Foles Era thread to find this article http://blogs.mcall.com/eagles/2013/06/yes-nick-foles-had-a-good-rookie-season.html to put his rookie season into perspective and to show what Foles did with less around him. I didn't know I'd see people making the same comments about him last year after this season. msudaisy26 still has a gut feeling that he's getting traded and MAC_32 thinks Foles is a backup calibar QB and doesn't care for statistics. MAC_32 and I even debated Luck and Foles vs common opponents in their last year in college. Lets just say even that yields another shocking result with a small sample size where situation was in Luck's favor.
Just for the record, I'm shocked as much as anyone that a better pocket passer could possibly exist from the 2012 class than Luck. I want to disreguard the facts, but I just don't see enough concrete evidence aside from overconfident gut reactions and that Luck will have a chance at more volume long term. I don't mean that towards anyone here because I'm really hoping for more insight. I'm just questioning the advice from different FF circles for both QBs. I know Luck is more touchable in dynasty than he was last season. He is a good gamble to be THE top QB for the next decade based on potential still. But, potential and all of the other excuses won't win fantasy games. I see all the reason to hold onto Foles and all the reasons you'd regret not making the swap for Luck 2014 or 2015. Maybe there is no right/wrong answer at the moment. What a great game.
Just for the record, I'm shocked as much as anyone that a better pocket passer could possibly exist from the 2012 class than Luck. I want to disreguard the facts, but I just don't see enough concrete evidence aside from overconfident gut reactions and that Luck will have a chance at more volume long term. I don't mean that towards anyone here because I'm really hoping for more insight. I'm just questioning the advice from different FF circles for both QBs. I know Luck is more touchable in dynasty than he was last season. He is a good gamble to be THE top QB for the next decade based on potential still. But, potential and all of the other excuses won't win fantasy games. I see all the reason to hold onto Foles and all the reasons you'd regret not making the swap for Luck 2014 or 2015. Maybe there is no right/wrong answer at the moment. What a great game.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Do you still think that Foles' efficiency did not help McCoy run well last season? Because that's where this exchange stemmed from.
jurb26
Footballguy
No, the exchange stemmed from you guys trying to say Foles having the number 1 rushing attack in the NFL didn't help him. It's like you are talking out of both sides of your mouth in the thread. Earlier, it was pointed out that Foles numbers were more amazing because of the balance Philly had last year and that they were a run first team. Foles lovers are the ones who pointed out this is a run first team. He has less attempts than Luck because of this, ect. Now you want to argue that Foles made the running game. Kelly has made the running game work more efficiently primarily, at least in respect to last year. Having McCoy in the backfield helps a ton. Seeing Philly is a run first team,mi think the running game helps him more than he helps it. Like I said before, good players all help the other so there is a balance of effect. Who are the good players helping Luck? If all it comes down to is needing great QB play to have great rushing numbers and efficiency then why aren't teams like Den, NO and NE also seeing this incredible success running the ball as well?
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Cool All-22 article on Cooper-Foles and the effects McCoy and Jackson had on the defense.
http://www.thechipwagon.com/eagles/2014/04/20-riley-goes-deep.html#more
http://www.thechipwagon.com/eagles/2014/04/20-riley-goes-deep.html#more
Amused to Death
Footballguy
My exchange started when you tried to make the case that the Eagles have been an elite running team for years, when the fact is they weren't. Just trying to keep the statement honest. Didn't try to say Foles made McCoy. Just that their rushing numbers took a big leap in '13. I also credited Kelly's system, followed by Foles' ability to run it. The running game set up the pass; the passing game set up the run. Both numbers took a huge leap in '13.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
dhockster
Footballguy
Okay, so Chip Kelly's offense takes what the defense gives it. So if Jackson's absence means defenses are less concerned about the deep threat, that means they will play more guys in the box to stop McCoy. That means the deep threat to Cooper and Maclin will be viable options for Foles.
I think a lot of Foles success this year will depend on whether Maclin develops into the #1 WR the Eagles thought he would be when they traded up to draft him in the 1st round. If you think Maclin is going to take a big step forward this year, then Foles is probably going to have a great year. If you think Maclin is average or will struggle, then Foles will probably have a decline this year.
I think a lot of Foles success this year will depend on whether Maclin develops into the #1 WR the Eagles thought he would be when they traded up to draft him in the 1st round. If you think Maclin is going to take a big step forward this year, then Foles is probably going to have a great year. If you think Maclin is average or will struggle, then Foles will probably have a decline this year.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Pretty much outlines what I've been saying about Jackson. Teams needed to respect Jackson's speed, but the Jackson gets the over safety double coverage, Jackson kept the safety out of the box theory is overblown.
The Kelly offense is about taking what the defense gives you. If you want to bring your safeties up, we'll pass on you. If you want to play your safeties back we'll run on you.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Yes. jurb wants to pretend that he didn't suggest that when I said 'Foles' efficiency as a QB helped McCoy' was wrong. He then went on to use Michael Vick's 7+ yards/rush over that period as a way to cite how great the Eagles rushing attack was. He never addressed how Vick's running 2 and 3 years ago helps Foles' passing last year.
jurb26
Footballguy
McCoy has been an efficient runner every year he's been a featured RB, so it is largely wrong. Here are his YPC numbers and rank vs all RBs with at least 150 carries. 2010, 5.2 #2
2011, 4.8 #7
2012, 4.2 #15
2013, 5.1 #2
The only season he wasn't in the top 10 was his injury season. He's a proven effective runner with and without Foles.
I never used Vick for anything. I pointed out Philly had a great running game pre-Foles. Hence, Foles didn't create it. I acknowledged Vick was a part of that. Vick and Foles are not the same player. McCoy has proven just as effective with Vick at QB as he has with Foles. He's just gotten less carries. I also never said anything about Vick's running helping Foles. You are making that up. I've said McCoy's running has helped Foles. I've also said Kelly has helped Foles.
Again, what's helped McCoy is that he is finally getting feed the ball more under Kelly and the new system. Kelly has brought balance to the attack and given McCoy more carries. That doesn't change the fact that McCoy has been efficient before he got there. It just changes the total number by adding more carries. Foles didn't bring balance to the system, Kelly did. Prior to Kelly Philly was throwing the ball at a near 60/40 ratio. Under Kelly it was 50/50.
Foles deserves some credit for running the system as well as he has, no doubt. Like I said before, I like Foles a great deal. Acting like he's the catalyst for all this success is simply wrong, though. He's a portion of it. A larger portion is Kelly and the solid system he brought with him and having one of the best RBs in the NFL.
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Insein
Footballguy
This is pretty much what happened. Vick was an established leader in the locker room and was the incumbent. Foles and Vick played pretty much even till the 3rd preseason game. So Kelly probably went path of least resistance. He also probably wished so badly the mobile qb thing worked out. I don't think he truly envisioned what Foles could do with his offense. None of us could. Even those touting Foles could not have seen 27-2. But give Kelly credit for swallowing pride (eventually) and not going back to Vick once he was healthy.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
OK. So again, are you saying that Foles didn't help McCoy? Because that's how this started. Hopefully you'll answer the question this time.
TheLurkerBelow
Footballguy
If I were trying to predict the future, I'd say that over the next three years Luck finishes as fantasy QB #4-8 on any given year. I'd predict Foles as #6-11. I base that on my evaluation of their football talent and the opportunity for production provided by their teams. Basically though, i just believe Luck's physical and mental football talent will allow him to finish higher in the standings more often than not when compared to Foles.
dhockster
Footballguy
When you do your rankings how heavily do you weight being part of a Chip Kelly offense vs. being part of a Pepper Hamilton offense? BTW, I had to look up Hamilton's name to know who the Colts offensive coordinator was
TheLurkerBelow
Footballguy
Good question. I do look at the offensive schemes when I say "opportunity for production provided by the teams". After one season of Chip Kelly's offense we've seen it produce 256.9 passing yards per game, good for 9th in the NFL regular season. That's pretty good. Indy was a little further behind with 232.8 passing yards per game which put them at 17th. There is no doubt Philly is a much better overall team and they are producing more offensive numbers across the board than Indy.dhockster said:
I do think Indy is on the rise in terms of passing production though. Pep Hamilton may have a power running game as his vision, but I think the postseason will really open his, and everyone's eyes to the fact that that offense should run right through Luck's arm as often as possible. With the emergence of Hilton, the addition of Nicks, and the return of Wayne, it's my belief that Luck's fantasy scoring will be up by a few points a game next year.
It's also possible Kelly's offense improves in production in its second season, but it's also possible that teams are better prepared to defend against it. Right now my 2014 prediction for the Eagles is a drop in passing production because I think the loss of Jackson and the coverage he drew away from the the other WRs will have an impact.
In 16 games Luck threw for 238.9 yards per game, 23 TDs, Rushed for 377 yards and 4 TDs and averaged 21.4 fantasy ppg
In 11 games Foles thew for 258.4 yards per game, 26 TDs, Rushed for 225 yards and 3 TDs and averaged 26.1 fantasy ppg
(note that i'm removing two Foles game where he came in for Vick and only had 5 passing attempts total)
So I'm basically predicting a rise for Luck and a drop for Foles based on talent and team.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Dun dun dun dunnnnn! Dun dun! Dun dun!
They both looked like #### early last week(though you won't hear how Luck looked bad at times). Foles got the win. I believe I heard that Luck and his coach have yet to lose two straight. I could be wrong. This should be fun to watch, as well as hear the media take afterwards.
They both looked like #### early last week(though you won't hear how Luck looked bad at times). Foles got the win. I believe I heard that Luck and his coach have yet to lose two straight. I could be wrong. This should be fun to watch, as well as hear the media take afterwards.
At least Foles did not throw a costly INT while in FG range where they could have gone up by two scores - which then led directly to the game tying TD drive. Then come back out with a chance to win the game with 3 minutes left and go 3 and out - leading directly to the game winning FG.
Luck lost this game tonight.
Foles won't get any credit again.
Media will blame bad calls and Trent Richardson for the loss - Luck is just bullet proof as he has been anointed the next great one.
Luck lost this game tonight.
Foles won't get any credit again.
Media will blame bad calls and Trent Richardson for the loss - Luck is just bullet proof as he has been anointed the next great one.
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Foles did make a couple of bad throws, but Luck was held in check as well. Foles also got screwed by at least 3 or 4 bad drops. Luck did get screwed on that INT for sure though. The Colts barely made any big plays in the passing game and Luck didn't have to deal with any bad drops. Keep in mind that the PI call on Davis won't show up on Foles stat sheet either(who knows if it would have been caught, but still).
Pretty evenly played by both QB's imo, neither played great or horribly. I'm glad Foles won, he would have been ripped while Luck would get a ton of praise by the mainstream media IMO.
Pretty evenly played by both QB's imo, neither played great or horribly. I'm glad Foles won, he would have been ripped while Luck would get a ton of praise by the mainstream media IMO.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
That INT was a direct result of a crazy obvious PI on the Eagles DB.
Without that screw job by the refs the Colts go up by at least ten points.
Insein
Footballguy
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Alas, that's the leading sports story in a parallel universe....Meanwhile, Foles stepped up and lead his team to a win when it mattered most.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
What's the difference? I wasn't implying it was a purposely missed call...just that the bad no-call screwed the Colts and completely changed the game.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Your hate for the Eagles is obvious. I think your Skins have a good shot next week.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Foles came through and played the hand he was dealt. My post wasn't meant to put down Foles at all. It's not his fault the Colts got screwed earlier by the refs, and he stepped up and won the game (along with a generous helping of Sproles).
Anyways, my post was meant to argue the fact that that guy posted "Luck lost this game tonight" as if that INT was in any way his fault.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It's natural that I hate the Eagles, but I've got nothing against Foles specifically and the Eagles took care of business tonight.
Doesn't change the fact that the Colts got screwed by the refs.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Damn true, too. As a fan I'll take a win however it happens. Doesn't change what I posted.
flapgreen
Footballguy
delusional
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Didn't Luck also make a horrible endzone throw in the first half that gets picked off 9 out of 10 times (DB dropped it). I wasn't impressed with that pass.
RhymesMcJuice
Footballguy
Blame the refs.... Luck got screwed.
Didn't the comeback kid get the ball back with 3 minutes to go and fail to get a first down?
Rotoworld
Andrew Luck completed 20-of-34 passes for 172 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the Colts' 30-27, Week 2 loss to the Eagles on Monday night.
Luck saved his night with the three touchdowns, but he could have easily tossed three or four more interceptions. And the interception he did throw shouldn't have been one, as T.Y. Hilton was completely mugged on the play. The 5.1 YPA average is nearly two yards off his career mark. OC Pep Hamilton continues to be the problem in Indy. He consistently dialed up runs to Trent Richardson, who was having an okay night, but not a good enough one to warrant 22 touches. When Luck was asked to throw, it was short passes. The Colts travel to Jacksonville in Week 3. Luck is an obvious QB1 in a favorable matchup.
Sep 15 - 11:41 PM
I like how Luck apologists point to Foles numbers being exaggerated by dump off passes to sproles and watching him do all the work.
But did'nt Luck throw two tds to his RB? I guess the same rules don't apply. Should have been a 3-4 interception night for Luck.
But the Colts lost because of the refs.....
Didn't the comeback kid get the ball back with 3 minutes to go and fail to get a first down?
Rotoworld
Andrew Luck completed 20-of-34 passes for 172 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the Colts' 30-27, Week 2 loss to the Eagles on Monday night.
Luck saved his night with the three touchdowns, but he could have easily tossed three or four more interceptions. And the interception he did throw shouldn't have been one, as T.Y. Hilton was completely mugged on the play. The 5.1 YPA average is nearly two yards off his career mark. OC Pep Hamilton continues to be the problem in Indy. He consistently dialed up runs to Trent Richardson, who was having an okay night, but not a good enough one to warrant 22 touches. When Luck was asked to throw, it was short passes. The Colts travel to Jacksonville in Week 3. Luck is an obvious QB1 in a favorable matchup.
Sep 15 - 11:41 PM
I like how Luck apologists point to Foles numbers being exaggerated by dump off passes to sproles and watching him do all the work.
But did'nt Luck throw two tds to his RB? I guess the same rules don't apply. Should have been a 3-4 interception night for Luck.
But the Colts lost because of the refs.....
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Foles has been way too inaccurate for me to put him ahead of Luck. He's actually starting to worry me. He's missing wide open guys badly.
