ghostguy123
Footballguy
Sounds like the guy who traded you Wilson is a pretty terrible owner who doesn't shop around at all and just gives players away.Jrodicus said:
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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Dangerous trade for the side moving Stacy. Some chance that Hunter and Eifert BOTH end up being worth more. Especially in 1.5 PPR for TE.
EBF
Footballguy
Jrodicus
Footballguy
There's only 1 owner in the league who really needs a QB. That guy is horrible about responding to trade offers and very suspicious. He does the league with his son, and his son just happens to be a big Wilson fan.
The guy who traded me Wilson was trying to trade him Ryan+ to get ABrown, instead of just taking what he could get for either QB (he also has Peyton)
His problem is he was greedy.
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Jrodicus
Footballguy
Trade deadline was last night (trading opens up again at the start of trading camp).Jrodicus said:
Guy that originally had Wilson also had Peyton and Ryan. He didn't want to move Ryan for anything less than an early 2nd, so I settled for Wilson. Once I got the 1.08, he wanted to trade Ryan for it straight up (which of course I wasn't going to do). Deal was:
Give: 1.08, 6.09, Rainey, Gerhart, Stepfan Taylor
Get: Ryan, 2.09, 5.02
Sum of the moves:
Give: 4.01, 6.09, Rainey, Gerhart, Taylor
Get: Ryan, Rudolph, 2.09, 5.02
My team next year:
Luck, Ryan
TRich, Woodhead
Julio, Gordon, Patterson, Crabtree
Fleener, Rudolph,
Seattle
Plus 4 out of Lamar Miller, Blackmon, Ivory, Quizz, Ladarius Green, David Wilson, Bowe
Picks: 1.01, 2.09, 3.01, 3.09, 5.02, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09, 7.12, 8.09
Luck killed me mid-season last year, so happy to have some insurance. Miller, Ivory, Quizz were my starting RBs (made moves for TRich and Woodhead at the end of the season).
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
MattFancy
Footballguy
14-team Devy League
I gave: 3.01, 2015 1st
I received: Cutler, 4.03
I have Peyton now, so Cutler gives me some insurance for him. Plus now my 1.12 is more flexible because I don't necessarily have to take a QB. The 2015 I'm giving up is more than likely going to be a late 1st anyway. Plus with devys, that's more like a 2nd.
I gave: 3.01, 2015 1st
I received: Cutler, 4.03
I have Peyton now, so Cutler gives me some insurance for him. Plus now my 1.12 is more flexible because I don't necessarily have to take a QB. The 2015 I'm giving up is more than likely going to be a late 1st anyway. Plus with devys, that's more like a 2nd.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Being brutally honest, this is a clear win for the other owner, in my opinion. There's no reason to panic about your QB2 spot right now. Shopping around, I think you'd have gotten a like option much cheaper. I don't see the logic in trading a 1st round draft pick for a 30 YO backup QB.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I did it for Manning insurance to have more flexibilty with my 1.12 this year. Now instead of almost having to go QB, I can take the BPA or trade it for more/picks players. I like having the flexibilty there.
As for the 2015 1st, sure that seems like alot, but in a 14-team Devy league, that 1st isn't worth nearly as much. Since most good rookies will be gone by the time we have our 2015 draft, it's more like a mid/late 2nd then anything. My team is relatively young minus Manning and Brandon Marshall so I don't necessarily need the picks.
Overpay? Maybe. But I like having the flexibilty now with my 2014 1st. And I have peace of mind that if Manning's tests in March come back and he can't go, I can roll the dice with Cutler and a rookie QB. Rather than Flacco and a rookie QB.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Assuming your devy draft is only 1 round, that pick is worth more than a mid-late 2nd, even if it ends up 1.14. I personally just don't undertand the move. I wouldn't pay a 1st for Romo, Rivers, or Dalton, who I like more than Cutler.
Just my opinion, of course, and good luck.
MattFancy
Footballguy
No, it's always good to hear what others think. That's the beauty of fantasy football is we all see things differently.
Yes our devy draft is one round. So if my 1st in 2015 ends up being 1.12-1.14, there could be 15-20 rookies already gone by then.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I agree. The value is off, and there was no need to make the move now in February. So losing value, and losing it 6 months before the season, makes no sense to me.
If you like the flexibility, maybe you should have tried to trade that future 1st for an early 2nd in this draft.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would you have to take a QB with the 1.12 this year? There's no other way for yout to get a bakup QB?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I just try to never make a deal like this way ahead before the season starts, especially if I feel confident I can make a similar deal right before week 1 if I need to.
Even in a 14 team league I don't think Cutler is some hot commodity. In a 2 QB league yeah, get em when ya can, but in a 12 or 14 teamer starting one QB, nah.
Now you have the entire offseason where things could go wrong to kill Cutler's value. Marshall could get hurt, Jeffrey could get hurt (or both, ouch), or Cutler could get hurt, and you are right back where you were minus a future 1st to work with.
Not to mention ANY team can have a poor season and their future first can end up much higher than you thought.
In this case I would have stood pat on QB until you know for sure if Manning is playing or not, and if he doesn't then you said you had FLacco right? To me Flacco would become your starter while you search for a top end QB. If you can't get one, then you just wait till right before the season starts and go after a 2nd level guy like Cutler.
Bamac
Footballguy
If you could guarantee that the 2015 1st would be late, I think it would be a fine move. But I never move my own first under the assumption it will be a late one. Too much luck involved, in my experience.As it is, I don't think you'll find many who prefer your side, but it's also not likely to be the kind of move that's going to cripple your team.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
I guess I can't guarantee it will be late, but I came in 2nd this year and don't see why I couldn't finish in top 4 next year. The guy I traded with even expects it. But yeah, anything could happen and my team could totally fall apart. But I do still have my devy pick, so that's just as good as a 1st anyway.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Two moves just made in my superactive dynasty trade that rolled voer to MFL yesterday
David Wilson
for
Da'Rick Rodgers
Chris Johnson
For
1.07 & 2.08
12 man league PPR, w 1 flex
David Wilson
for
Da'Rick Rodgers
Chris Johnson
For
1.07 & 2.08
12 man league PPR, w 1 flex
Concept Coop
Footballguy
QRRWWWTFF PPR: .75/1/1.25 14 Tm Devy
Gave:
J.Reed
T.Smith
D.Allen
3rd
Got:
Gronk
Gave:
J.Reed
T.Smith
D.Allen
3rd
Got:
Gronk
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Prefer the Rogers and the picks sides. Too much unknown about when/if Wilson comes back. I wasn't overly impressed with him this year anyway. Rogers has more room to grow and Colts need WR options, so he'll have a chance.
Just would rather picks than CJ. Not sure where he ends up or what he has left in the next year or 2.
Close, but I'd rather the bigger group. I like Gronk, don't get me wrong. When healthy, he's easily top 2 TE. But I think Reed/Allen combined could produce similar numbers and Torrey Smith is a solid WR2. May be a slight over pay for Gronk, but if you really like him, I could understand.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree with the others here. You're treating this too much like the NFL and not fantasy football. You in no way were forced to use the 1.12 on a QB. You don't need to groom a young QB for the future because the guy you have is old in fantasy football. Guys like Cutler are a dime a dozen in 1 QB leagues and have little value. Worst case, as others said, you could have made this same trade later on if Peyton announced his retirement. Realistically, Peyton will probably play and you'll be able to find an in-season waiver wire backup QB that scores at a better clip than Cutler.
Going into this season I had made the championship game for 5 straight years and thought I had probably a better team than any of those. I traded my 1st in the offseason pretty cheaply because everyone assumed it would be 11th or 12th. It ended up being 3rd.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for your thoughts. I'm one of the irrational people who still think Gronk is worth a 1st round start-up pick, especially in this format. I love Reed, am neutral on Torrey, and was happy to treat Allen as a throw in, in such a big deal. I viewed it as turning a couple 4th round startup picks into a late 1st, and am happy about it. Because I'm so high on Reed, wihtout the injury concerns, I might have passed on the deal. But considering them, I was happy to make it.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Its definitely not a bad deal if Gronk can return healthy and stay healthy. He and Graham are on a tier by themselves when it comes to TE IMO. So I totally understand why someone would want Gronk. But I think Reed (if healthy too) and Allen could end up posting similar numbers combined if you use a bit of a TEBC approach.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Uhhhh... no. I love Reed, and like Allen, but it'll be a cold day in hell when you can get a TD a game out of them.
And Coop IMO there's nothing at all irrational about Gronk as a late 1st round startup pick in TE premium leagues, except for the fact that due to injury / recency bias you can likely get him later than that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
lardonastick
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree. It was partially said in jest. I don't weight market value as much as most, but I do understand the appeal. The biggest reason Graham is worth more than Gronk right now, in my opinion: Graham could tear his ACL week 1 and still be a top 15-20 player, in terms of market value. He's a very movable asset with plenty of margin for error. Gronk--not so much. If he tears a knee again, right or wrong, he'll be tossed in with McFadden, Nicks and Stewart.
I look at Gronk and see a string of unrelated, freak injuries, in addition the back stuff, which is moderately concerning. But read the Gronk thread and you'll see that plenty view his injury history as "LMAO! 7 Surgeries is 12 months?! He's done! LOL!!!". While I obviously disagree, I have to be realistic and understand the concerns. So while I still think he's a top 12 dynasty asset, I no longer think it's irrational to take him off your board in the first 2-3 rounds, either.
Wilson over Rogers for me pretty easily
and the picks for me as well over CJ. I am a CJ owner more places than anyone should be and I would move him for the 1.07 alone most of them
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
12 team, QRRWWWT + flex, .5 ppr for WR/TE only, 4 yr max contracts
Two Super Bowl party trades:
Team AL gives Ray Rice (2 yr), pick 24
Team Li gives pick 6, pick 36
Team Li gives H.Nicks (3 yr), J.Reed (3), pick 15
Team TPC gives Harvin (3), pick 9
Two Super Bowl party trades:
Team AL gives Ray Rice (2 yr), pick 24
Team Li gives pick 6, pick 36
Team Li gives H.Nicks (3 yr), J.Reed (3), pick 15
Team TPC gives Harvin (3), pick 9
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree. He's going to be cut and I don't know that a team is going to sign him to be the guy, unless he's willing to take a deal like Mendenhall got last year. I have a feeling he'll hold out for the money and land in a bad org/situation.
I'd much rather pay a 2nd for LeGarrette Blount (or Sproles/Gore/MJD/etc) than a mid 1st for CJ.
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Louche
Footballguy
Those roster spots have value as well. With shallow rosters the trade could be Reed + Allen + Smith + 3rd..........for Gronk + Kelce and Da'Rick off waivers.
Go Team Li. Nice trades taking advantage of drunken leaguemates
Rice/2.12 > 1.06/3.12
Harvin >> Nicks/2.03
1.09 = Reed (and truth is I prefer the pick over Reed)
Good job imo
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
With a cornerstone player like Gronk, I pretty much don't consider market value at all.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 team dynasty PPR
Team A gets
Locker Crabtree picks 2.5 and 2.7
Team B gets
Christine Michael Cordelle Patterson and pick 3.3
Team A gets
Locker Crabtree picks 2.5 and 2.7
Team B gets
Christine Michael Cordelle Patterson and pick 3.3
Concept Coop
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
How much longer will he be considered a cornerstone player if he's injured every season?
I've said all along that the guy will not last.
Putting that aside, I think the Reed/Gronk deal was a sensible gamble. Reed has issues of his own and Torrey is a pretty average player in the grand scheme of things.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Unless you predicted a broken forearm on PAT attempt and the subsequent infection issues, in addition to a freak ACL injury--what really came to fruition? I recall you suggesting his playing style won't allow him to hold up in the NFL. But to this point, his playing style's had nothing to do with it.
Unless we can find a common factor in his 3 unrelated issues (back, arm, knee), I don't think we have much. Not even at a pain tolerance level.
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EBF
Footballguy
If you like a player, you're going to be inclined to see his injuries as "bad luck" or "freak" accidents. If you already thought he was injury prone, you're going to see it as validation of that opinion. I cringed when people were treating Gronk like a mortal lock dynasty asset and even now his ADP keeps me awake at night. The guy plays a hyper physical game and has no avoidance skills. He's going to continue to accumulate "unlucky" injuries.
We all know what he can do when he's 100%, but how healthy will he be next season coming back from a devastating knee injury? And will he stay healthy moving forward? Big question marks. There's a chance that his skeptics are overcorrecting based on recent durability issues, but there's also a chance that his fans are undercorrecting by not lending enough weight to his checkered health history. In addition to his NFL issues, he missed his entire junior season in college with back problems. The guy is a Ferrari. When all of his parts are working he's a sight to behold, but he's going to spend a lot of time in the shop.
We all know what he can do when he's 100%, but how healthy will he be next season coming back from a devastating knee injury? And will he stay healthy moving forward? Big question marks. There's a chance that his skeptics are overcorrecting based on recent durability issues, but there's also a chance that his fans are undercorrecting by not lending enough weight to his checkered health history. In addition to his NFL issues, he missed his entire junior season in college with back problems. The guy is a Ferrari. When all of his parts are working he's a sight to behold, but he's going to spend a lot of time in the shop.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
None of his injuries have had anything to do with your concerns about his "hyper physical game" and lack of "avoidance skills". On a side note, I'd be interested in the historcal comps that you think Gronk will follow.
His back surgury kept him out of his junior year due to poor timing. He healed from it and went on to break records. His most recent back surgury was on a different vertebrate, and it seems to have healed as well as the last. The back issue is a concern, certainly. But let's not go overboard.
As for the other two--some poeple take spilled coffee and a stubbed toe in the same hour as bad karma, lack of qi, or as a sign that the universe is screwing with them. Some take it as a coincidence and a reminder that #### happens. I'm a #### happens guy on the subject.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Very true. And guess what, guys who have no injuries for 3 straight years get hurt also. Nobody is immune to an NFL injury.
EBF
Footballguy
That's one take. I don't agree with it at all though.
I think it's hard to predict which players will be injury prone and which won't (look at the college careers vs. the NFL careers of Curtis Martin and Frank Gore). On the other hand, it's apparent that some players are more sturdy than others. Different bodies and different playing styles will hold up to the rigors of the game differently. It's not by random luck that ostrich legs McFadden and Beanie can't survive a heavy workload while pounders like Turner, Rice, and MJD could be run into the ground before the wheels fell off.
Injury-proneness is a real thing. Whether or not we can predict it is another matter.
I think when a guy has missed ~30% of his games in the last 5-6 years like Gronk, there's a pretty good chance that he's not built to last. And that definitely jives with my subjective take on his body type/playing style. Ostrich legs + violent playing style = lots of damage.
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EBF
Footballguy
I don't know if that's a safe assumption. I'd think that getting rocked would possibly take a toll on your back.
The knee injury was a vicious play, but maybe someone with a more compact stride or thicker trunk wouldn't have been so exposed in that situation.
As far as comparisons go, I don't think there have been too many guys built like Gronk in recent years. In terms of career trajectory, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn out like Jeremy Shockey. A high peak followed by mounting injuries and declining effectiveness. Gronk at his best is miles beyond anything Shockey ever did, but both guys pay a price for their aggressive playing style.
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