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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (4 Viewers)

12 Team, Half PPR

Team A: Gives 1.3, TY Hilton, 2015 2nd Rounder

Team B: Gives 1.2

Idea is to take Evans with 1.2, so is Evans worth more than Cooks, TY Hilton, and a 2015 Rounder?

Thoughts?
Didn't we see and comment on this a few days ago?

Still way too much for Evans imo

 
12 Team, Half PPR

Team A: Gives 1.3, TY Hilton, 2015 2nd Rounder

Team B: Gives 1.2

Idea is to take Evans with 1.2.

Thoughts?
Seems like a lot to give up to move up one spot in the draft.
Updated the post, but the idea is - is Evans worth more than Cooks, TY Hilton, and a 2015 Rounder over the long term?
No.

Who's Evans' QB going to be in 2 years?

Who are Cooks and Hilton's QBs going to be in 2 years?

 
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Team 1 gives: Andy Dalton

Team 2 gives: Percy Harvin
I am assuming this is a super flex league? 1 qb league very lopsided in favor of Harvin
Even in superflex I think that's pretty lopsided in favor of Harvin.
Well, Harvin and TRich just got dealt for a 2016 2nd and 3rd in one of my leagues. :wall:
Thats pretty bad.

We had 16 team deal idp TE premium ppr(.25/.5/1)

Kyle Rudolph

for

Phillip Wheeler

 
12 Team, Half PPR

Team A: Gives 1.3, TY Hilton, 2015 2nd Rounder

Team B: Gives 1.2

Idea is to take Evans with 1.2.

Thoughts?
Seems like a lot to give up to move up one spot in the draft.
Updated the post, but the idea is - is Evans worth more than Cooks, TY Hilton, and a 2015 Rounder over the long term?
No.

Who's Evans' QB going to be in 2 years?

Who are Cooks and Hilton's QBs going to be in 2 years?
Great point, thanks.

 
just some minor deals to fill holes:

Give: Eli Manning

Got: Amendola

PPR league - I needed wr depth, he needs a b/u qb.

Give: Gore

Got: M Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins

Figured Gore was on his last legs, and have Tate and Jennings to fill the RB2 hole behind Foster. Maybe Thompkins turns into something?

 
just some minor deals to fill holes:

Give: Eli Manning

Got: Amendola

PPR league - I needed wr depth, he needs a b/u qb.

Give: Gore

Got: M Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins

Figured Gore was on his last legs, and have Tate and Jennings to fill the RB2 hole behind Foster. Maybe Thompkins turns into something?
If you have the depth, I like Amendola there.

I think you could have gotten more value for Gore at the trade deadline.

 
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12 Team, Half PPR

Team A: Gives 1.3, TY Hilton, 2015 2nd Rounder

Team B: Gives 1.2

Idea is to take Evans with 1.2, so is Evans worth more than Cooks, TY Hilton, and a 2015 Rounder?

Thoughts?
Didn't we see and comment on this a few days ago?

Still way too much for Evans imo
Yeah. My draft is tonight and it's been keeping me up at night - still can't decide. :cry:
Next time you can't decide, ask in the Assistant Coach's Forum. This thread is for done deals.

 
just some minor deals to fill holes:

Give: Eli Manning

Got: Amendola

PPR league - I needed wr depth, he needs a b/u qb.

Give: Gore

Got: M Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins

Figured Gore was on his last legs, and have Tate and Jennings to fill the RB2 hole behind Foster. Maybe Thompkins turns into something?
If you have the depth, I like Amendola there.

I think you could have gotten more value for Gore at the trade deadline.
That's true. But maybe he's irrelevant by then, too (won't take much). I really don't think I'd have gotten much more.

 
12 team PPR 1/2/3/1 1 flex

Gave:

LeVeon Bell

Got:

Larry Fitzgerald

Have Calvin, Demariyous and Andre Johnson at WR, but not much else. RB consists of Murray, Thomas and Khiry from NO, Jennings and Williams from NYG. I like adding to my depth at WR and still feel like I am pretty deep at RB.

Bell scares me. He already Blount cutting into his carries before the recent pot troubles. Dri Archer also in the mix there. Plus, he doesn't strike me as a workhorse guy. More of a fill-in guy holding the job till someone better gets there.

Fitz is 30, but I don't feel that is really that old anymore. I think he has at least 3 more star table years. I can't say the same thing about Bell.

 
12 team PPR 1/2/3/1 1 flex

Gave:

LeVeon Bell

Got:

Larry Fitzgerald

Have Calvin, Demariyous and Andre Johnson at WR, but not much else. RB consists of Murray, Thomas and Khiry from NO, Jennings and Williams from NYG. I like adding to my depth at WR and still feel like I am pretty deep at RB.

Bell scares me. He already Blount cutting into his carries before the recent pot troubles. Dri Archer also in the mix there. Plus, he doesn't strike me as a workhorse guy. More of a fill-in guy holding the job till someone better gets there.

Fitz is 30, but I don't feel that is really that old anymore. I think he has at least 3 more star table years. I can't say the same thing about Bell.
Sold low. As an owner of both guys that was shopping both recently Bell's value to prospective buyers was Much higher. Bell should be able to net a WR in the tier after the big 5.

 
calvin

for

eifert

latimer

2015 1st

2015 2nd
My stance is that there's no one in the NFL who is worth four random rookie 1sts, but that actually seems like relatively solid value for Calvin. It's basically 3-3.5 random rookie firsts, (I value Eifert about on par with a mid-late 2014 1st). It doesn't have the high-end upside of truly random rookie firsts (there's only one potential top-tier rookie pick in the group, and the potential for top-tier rookie picks is what makes the "random firsts" package so valuable). I'd prefer Calvin Johnson over that package in most instances, but not all, and we're in the right ballpark at least.

 
My stance is that there's no one in the NFL who is worth four random rookie 1sts, but that actually seems like relatively solid value for Calvin. It's basically 3-3.5 random rookie firsts, (I value Eifert about on par with a mid-late 2014 1st). It doesn't have the high-end upside of truly random rookie firsts (there's only one potential top-tier rookie pick in the group, and the potential for top-tier rookie picks is what makes the "random firsts" package so valuable). I'd prefer Calvin Johnson over that package in most instances, but not all, and we're in the right ballpark at least.
That package isn't 4 random 1st round picks. It's 2x late 1sts (if that), a random first (team just added Megatron), and a 2nd (same). That is brutally bad value for Calvin. That might be fair value for Victor Cruz or Michael Crabtree, who combined shouldn't be able to land Megatron.

In startup value, the old Calvin over traded the 1.02 for 8.07, 9.01, 9.02 and a 2nd round pick.

 
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12 team ppr dynasty -

Trade # 1

I gave: Marquess Wilson

He gave: Brian Hoyer, Mychal Rivera

Trade # 2

I gave: Nick Foles, Travaris Cadet, Jeremy Mincey

He gave: Ziggy Ansah, Mike Glennon, Curtis Lofton

Trade # 3

I gave: Jerrell Freeman

He gave: Ladarius Green, J-Stew

16 tm ppr dynasty with salary cap and years -

Trade # 1

I gave: Cam Newton

He gave: Geno Smith, Justin Blackmon

yeah...ouch! I was hoping Blackmon would get reinstated. Cam's salary skyrocketed and I didn't want to pay it.

Trade # 2

I gave: Geno Smith, J-Stew, Justin Hunter, Robert Housler, Nigel Bradham, 2014 2.15 rookie pick

He gave: Lesean McCoy, 2014 4.04 rookie pick

Trade # 3

I gave: Justin Blackmon

He gave: Brandon Carr, Dashon Goldson

Trade # 4

I gave: Brandon Carr

He gave: 2014 6.03 rookie pick

Trade # 5

I gave: Daryl Washington

He gave: Sam Bradford

Trade # 6

I gave: Joe Flacco, Dez Bryant, Jacoby Jones, Dashon Goldson, 2014 6.03 rookie pick

He gave: Colin Kaepernick, Chris Givens, Cordarelle Patterson, Torrey Smith, 2014 6.15 rookie pick

Trade # 7

I gave: Chris Givens

He gave: Miles Burris

Trade # 8

I gave: Sam Bradford, Antonio Allen, Robert Herron, 2015 5th rnd rookie pick

He gave: Geno Smith, Mike Vick

Trade # 9

I gave: Antoine Bethea, 2015 6th rnd rookie pick

He gave: Heath Miller

 
12 Tm - QRRWWWTF 1.0 PPR

Team A Gave: Jimmy Graham, L. Blount

Team B Gave: Julio Jones, Jason Witten

12 Tm - QRWWTFF PPR:1/1/1.25

Gave: RG3, M. Lee

Got: Cam, Escobar

Other WRs: Calvin, Julio, Cobb, Tavon

12 Tm - QRWWTFF PPR:1/1/1.25

Team A Gave: Decker

Team B Gave: Jeff Janis, 3rd (Late)

12 Tm - QRRWWWTF 1.0 PPR

Team A Gave: Ray Rice

Team B Gave: Joique Bell

 
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My stance is that there's no one in the NFL who is worth four random rookie 1sts, but that actually seems like relatively solid value for Calvin. It's basically 3-3.5 random rookie firsts, (I value Eifert about on par with a mid-late 2014 1st). It doesn't have the high-end upside of truly random rookie firsts (there's only one potential top-tier rookie pick in the group, and the potential for top-tier rookie picks is what makes the "random firsts" package so valuable). I'd prefer Calvin Johnson over that package in most instances, but not all, and we're in the right ballpark at least.
That package isn't 4 random 1st round picks. It's 2x late 1sts (if that), a random first (team just added Megatron), and a 2nd (same). That is brutally bad value for Calvin. That might be fair value for Victor Cruz or Michael Crabtree, who combined shouldn't be able to land Megatron.

In startup value, the old Calvin over traded the 1.02 for 8.07, 9.01, 9.02 and a 2nd round pick.
I'm higher on Latimer and Eifert than you are, then. I've got Latimer as valued somewhere around 1.06, Eifert as valued somewhere around 1.08, and then a random first on top of that. So that's a mid 1st, a low 1st, and a random 1st. Future 2nds aren't half as valuable as future firsts, either. Like I said, I'd prefer Calvin over that package. Change Latimer into Evans or Watkins and I think the two sides are about even. Or turn Latimer into Cooks and replace Eifert with another 2015 first. As it currently stands I think that's more of a good starting point for negotiations than a good ending point. But if that's the best the Calvin owner could do, I've got no problem with that.

In a startup, I think the idea of trading a very high pick for a series of mid-round picks is underrated. Maybe I'd be looking to trade 1.02 for a trio of 6th-8th rounders instead of a trio of 8th-9th rounders, but again, I think the basic thought process is fine.

 
12 Tm - QRRWWWTF 1.0 PPR

Team A Gave: Jimmy Graham, L. Blount

Team B Gave: Julio Jones, Jason Witten

12 Tm - QRWWTFF PPR:1/1/1.25

Gave: RG3, M. Lee

Got: Cam, Escobar

Other WRs: Calvin, Julio, Cobb, Tavon

12 Tm - QRWWTFF PPR:1/1/1.25

Team A Gave: Decker

Team B Gave: Jeff Janis, 3rd (Late)

12 Tm - QRRWWWTF 1.0 PPR

Team A Gave: Ray Rice

Team B Gave: Joique Bell
Julio/Witten

Cam/Escobar I think, but close

Decker by a large margin

Agnostic on the Rice/Bell swap - comes down to who you think has more re-draft value this year IMO

 
I'm higher on Latimer and Eifert than you are, then. I've got Latimer as valued somewhere around 1.06, Eifert as valued somewhere around 1.08, and then a random first on top of that. So that's a mid 1st, a low 1st, and a random 1st. Future 2nds aren't half as valuable as future firsts, either. Like I said, I'd prefer Calvin over that package. Change Latimer into Evans or Watkins and I think the two sides are about even. Or turn Latimer into Cooks and replace Eifert with another 2015 first. As it currently stands I think that's more of a good starting point for negotiations than a good ending point. But if that's the best the Calvin owner could do, I've got no problem with that.

In a startup, I think the idea of trading a very high pick for a series of mid-round picks is underrated. Maybe I'd be looking to trade 1.02 for a trio of 6th-8th rounders instead of a trio of 8th-9th rounders, but again, I think the basic thought process is fine.
History suggests that the odds of both Eifert and Latimer hitting are less than 25%. One is going to bust. Even if the one who doesn't ends up being a top 10 WR or top 3 TE (far from likely)--is the gap between that and Calvin only a 1st and 2nd?

I liked your 4 random pick study, but I see a few major flaws: There is no such thing as a truly random first round pick; roster spaces (spread out over 2+ years, no less) are very valuable; most importantly, even if history shows you'll eventually break even or better, it's still not the most efficient way of getting there.

For example:

Calvin for Alshon, 1st, 2nd

Alshon for Cobb, 1st, 2nd

Cobb for Cruz, 1st

Cruz for Beckham, 1st

Beckham for 1st, 2nd

That's 5 1st and 3x 2nds, using only deals I would consider pretty likely to be accepted--I think one could easily turn Calvin into 6 first rounders in a sequence like this.

 
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My stance is that there's no one in the NFL who is worth four random rookie 1sts, but that actually seems like relatively solid value for Calvin. It's basically 3-3.5 random rookie firsts, (I value Eifert about on par with a mid-late 2014 1st). It doesn't have the high-end upside of truly random rookie firsts (there's only one potential top-tier rookie pick in the group, and the potential for top-tier rookie picks is what makes the "random firsts" package so valuable). I'd prefer Calvin Johnson over that package in most instances, but not all, and we're in the right ballpark at least.
That package isn't 4 random 1st round picks. It's 2x late 1sts (if that), a random first (team just added Megatron), and a 2nd (same). That is brutally bad value for Calvin. That might be fair value for Victor Cruz or Michael Crabtree, who combined shouldn't be able to land Megatron.

In startup value, the old Calvin over traded the 1.02 for 8.07, 9.01, 9.02 and a 2nd round pick.
I'm higher on Latimer and Eifert than you are, then. I've got Latimer as valued somewhere around 1.06, Eifert as valued somewhere around 1.08, and then a random first on top of that. So that's a mid 1st, a low 1st, and a random 1st. Future 2nds aren't half as valuable as future firsts, either. Like I said, I'd prefer Calvin over that package. Change Latimer into Evans or Watkins and I think the two sides are about even. Or turn Latimer into Cooks and replace Eifert with another 2015 first. As it currently stands I think that's more of a good starting point for negotiations than a good ending point. But if that's the best the Calvin owner could do, I've got no problem with that.

In a startup, I think the idea of trading a very high pick for a series of mid-round picks is underrated. Maybe I'd be looking to trade 1.02 for a trio of 6th-8th rounders instead of a trio of 8th-9th rounders, but again, I think the basic thought process is fine.
I think part of the value of the four random 1st round picks is that all four have a chance of being a high pick. In this case, only one does. Additionally, Latimer probably more commonly went in the 2nd round than he went in the top 6,

 
I'm higher on Latimer and Eifert than you are, then. I've got Latimer as valued somewhere around 1.06, Eifert as valued somewhere around 1.08, and then a random first on top of that. So that's a mid 1st, a low 1st, and a random 1st. Future 2nds aren't half as valuable as future firsts, either. Like I said, I'd prefer Calvin over that package. Change Latimer into Evans or Watkins and I think the two sides are about even. Or turn Latimer into Cooks and replace Eifert with another 2015 first. As it currently stands I think that's more of a good starting point for negotiations than a good ending point. But if that's the best the Calvin owner could do, I've got no problem with that.

In a startup, I think the idea of trading a very high pick for a series of mid-round picks is underrated. Maybe I'd be looking to trade 1.02 for a trio of 6th-8th rounders instead of a trio of 8th-9th rounders, but again, I think the basic thought process is fine.
History suggests that the odds of both Eifert and Latimer hitting are less than 25%. One is going to bust. Even if the one who doesn't ends up being a top 10 WR or top 3 TE (far from likely)--is the gap between that and Calvin only a 1st and 2nd?

I liked your 4 random pick study, but I see a few major flaws: There is no such thing as a truly random first round pick; roster spaces (spread out over 2+ years, no less) are very valuable; most importantly, even if history shows you'll eventually break even or better, it's still not the most efficient way of getting there.

For example:

Calvin for Alshon, 1st, 2nd

Alshon for Cobb, 1st, 2nd

Cobb for Cruz, 1st

Cruz for Beckham, 1st

Beckham for 1st, 2nd

That's 5 1st and 3x 2nds, using only deals I would consider pretty likely to be accepted--I think one could easily turn Calvin into 6 first rounders in a sequence like this.
Opportunity cost is always a confound, but it works both ways. Obviously "results not typical" caveats apply, but in one of my leagues the Calvin/Green owner offered me either of those WRs for four firsts in the 2012 offseason, and I declined. Instead, I executed a long series of deals buying smaller players I'd identified as undervalued and turned those four firsts (plus Jermichael Finley a second) into: RGIII, Brandon Marshall, Jamaal Charles, and a 2013 first (wound up being 1.03). Then I executed a half-dozen more trades and I turned Brandon Marshall, RGIII, and that 1.03 in 2013 into Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, Nick Foles, and three extra picks in 2014 (1.03, 1.05, and 1.06).

So, yes, in the "4 firsts for Calvin" hypothetical, the Calvin owner could theoretically decline and turn him into 6 picks again. Then again, the 4 firsts owner could theoretically decline and turn them into Nick Foles, Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, and three extra firsts two years two years down the road. Paying fair value for anything is always a worse idea than paying below fair value for something else. Why buy Calvin Johnson at full price when you could buy Rob Gronkowski and Percy Harvin at a discount and still have some money left over afterwards?

I mean, perhaps the best thing to do with four firsts, in my experience, is to keep the best one and turn the other three into future picks, picking up an "impatience tax" in the process. It gives you a top 3-4 pick every year and plenty of extra pieces in the process, and can be executed in perpetuity. It's like drawing a rent. Calvin gives you a crushing advantage in the short term, but he can't pay off in perpetuity like that.

 
I think part of the value of the four random 1st round picks is that all four have a chance of being a high pick. In this case, only one does. Additionally, Latimer probably more commonly went in the 2nd round than he went in the top 6,
Right, which is why I came down on the Calvin side of it.

Regardless of where Latimer commonly went, I'd draft him at 1.06/1.07 today. So that's how I'd value him in a trade.

 
3 trades in a QRWWFF 16 team PPR.

Brian Quick for 2015 1st.

Chris Johnson for 2015 1st and Dunbar.

Markus Wheaton for 2015 1st.
Congrats on playing in a horrible league.
Yeah clean sweep getting the 3 1sts
Yep I was the recipient of all 3 picks. The Quick trade was to a diehard Rams fan.
Not much of a fan if he doesn't know Quick has been all but useless

 
I think part of the value of the four random 1st round picks is that all four have a chance of being a high pick. In this case, only one does. Additionally, Latimer probably more commonly went in the 2nd round than he went in the top 6,
Right, which is why I came down on the Calvin side of it.

Regardless of where Latimer commonly went, I'd draft him at 1.06/1.07 today. So that's how I'd value him in a trade.
Really? You could just trade back and still get him

 
Calvin gives you a crushing advantage in the short term, but he can't pay off in perpetuity like that.
In proposing a new value measurement (random 1sts) and applying it to the hobby's most valuable asset(s)--you're actually applying it to every measurable asset. Until you show that moving the top assets is a better play than moving lesser assets for a proportionate return--I'm not sure you're saying much more than first round picks are underrated or trade everything for picks.

The moment your assets stabilize in value, in theory, you'll need to trade them for dynamic value. Good luck winning a championship with dynamic value. Eventually you'll have to draw a line and start enjoying your interest to achieve your goals. if you acknowledge a line at all, the theory kind of falls apart, in my opinion. It's no longer Nobody is worth 4 random firsts and is now under some circumstances, nobody is worth 4 random firsts. We're back where we started.

 
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I'm giving Josh Gordon and James White for Spiller and I get to wait until next Friday to see if there's an injunction.

 
12 team, 0.5 PPR, start 1/2/3/1

I give: Randle

I get: Ingram + 2016 3rd

I can wait on Ingram until next year if FA is his best hope. Randle was my WR5/6.

 
Team A in Championship window gave Gronk

Team B fighting for playoffs gave ASJ, 2015 1st (playoff contender) and another 2015 1st (Worse than a playoff contender)

 
Traded my 2015 2nd Round Rookie Pick (usually late) for Hakeem Nicks.

Decided to roll the dice with Nicks and hope he can regain his old form.

 

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