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***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
This was my thinking as well for the most part. Two of my "locks" were actually changed toward the end.Rivers to Big Ben (don't mind it if he doesn't get killed by his offensive line)'massraider said:Yeah. To me, those mid-tier players are where you make your bones in this contest. Picking the right studs....there's a certain amount of luck, avoiding injuries. Some is not luck, like identifying the stud you think is going to disappoint, and avoiding him. But if someone gets bounced because they have Andre Johnson, and they get a zero from him the next month, that's not lack of skill, it's bad luck.Well said.
I enjoy the discussion, as well. I was never strong in math. But I'm interested in statistics and probability in the NFL.
I wanted to address one point:
See, that's just it: I don't know why anyone would have been enamored with Miller. Celek was hot a couple of years ago, but did little last year. Miller is the only guy I could have made a case for as a very strong TE. I guess what I'm saying is that if you're watching a lot of preseason games or pouring over game reports, those reports reveal a lot about rising stars. Denarious Moore is a perfect example. Oakland was raving about Moore during the preseason. And there's a team that's pretty thin at WR. But his $3 price in no way reflected the fact that Moore had a good shot to make a nice impact.This is something we haven't discussed yet. But the fascinating aspect of this contest is the relationship between the staff's assessment of these players vs. their dollar figures in this contest. If you read a lot of FBG pre-season pieces, we all kind of know who their favorite sleepers were. But some of the pricing in this contest represents great value. I'm not talking about the lottery pick $2 players. I'm talking about the $6 to $10 players. The contest pricing is set up early, so a late preseason star will come cheap in this contest. Still, the pricing in this contest is structured much more as a redraft league than a dynasty league. Yes, this is a redraft-style contest. However, in some ways, you have to treat it like a dynasty format because you're looking for value at low prices.
Anyway...I do go on
And the cheapo guys, some are obvious, like Denarius Moore. And some are backup RBs that need an injury in front of them. Bit of luck needed for a Redman to become relevant (thank you Mendy for getting hurt on Felix and Sjax's by weeks, much appreciated).
But those mid-tier guys, identifying the guys that you think will dramatically outperform their ADP (and thus their price tag), that's the best shot at giving yourself depth needed in a best ball format, whether you have 18 or 28 roster spots. It's no big deal if a $2 back doesn't score for me, but an $8 WR? I need him to contribute.
When I put my team together, I first go through and look for the guys I think are obvious bargains, that are going to be on every version of my team. This year, those players were Fitz and Staff (plugged them in first day, and never looked back), Stevie, Hester (oof) Lance Kendricks (we get points for drops, right?)and Evan Moore.
Thing about that is, and I learned this early on in the contest, everyone has the same sleepers. I always look for the guy that isn't going to be owned by a lot of people. Hasving Denarius Moore is a defensive move, you got him because it's a solid $3 spent, and if you are the only guy that doesn't have him, it can hurt you. But he isn't winning anyone the title, because so many people have him.
To that end, looking for unpopular sleepers is the toughest part to me. You are really going against the grain, I am trying pick a player that isn't a stud, and isn't even considered a good bargain at his price, with some upside. And if you are trying to win the whole thing, I feel like you have to take some risks. I took a few at RB with SJax and Felix, hoping they avoid injury, and spent money on less popular cheapos, Cecil Shorts and Mark Clayton.
If every single player on your team is heavily owned, you sit there, hoping your 3rd kicker goes nuts.
Aaron Hernandez to Gronkowski (Move to try for uniqueness and I had a change of heart as to which TE would actually have the best fantasy season)
TE Daniels, Hernandez, Olsen and Kendricks - revamped to Daniels, Gronk & Pettigrew (Hernandez/Olsen/Kendricks felt too popular as value picks around here - Pettigrew and Gronk could pay dividends if I make it to the end)
Brady, Wells, D Moore, and Hernandez were probably the only guys on every one of the likely thousands of iterations for me.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Jdoggydogg, I'm laughing out loud right now. I had the precise same group as my backbone in virtually every version I submitted. I eventually tossed Moss in my final version, but he's on all 3 of my fantasy teams. He's the most consistenly underrated WR every year for some reason. Ultimately I decided I had to have Jennings, Wallace, and Crabtree so that chewed-up my WR budget a bit.I also wanted Tomlinson fairly badly. I viewed him as a bit of a gamble, but I figured at some point it would become obvious to the Jets staff that Shonnnnnnnn is not the answer at RB, giving LT a nice bump in value later in the season. I think he easily outperforms his salary.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
The only players that I think I had on every variation of my roster...
Stafford, Wells, D. Moore, McCluster, Calvin, Pettigrew
Stafford, Wells, D. Moore, McCluster, Calvin, Pettigrew
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
wow i have major issues this week. with rice on bye and wells and jacobs looking like they might not play i need Redman + my WR (fitz, wallce, manningham, decker, J nelson) to come up big.
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1. Worked backwards: Started at DST and PK and worked my way up to the skill positions. Wanted 3 of each with different bye weeks. Spent $6 on PK and $7 on DST. This number dropped down to (2) each several times before I hit submit, but in the end I think an extra or two at these can save your bacon some weeks for a very cheap price.
2. TE: At 1.5 PPR, a full point more than RB, and the ability to use them as flex, wanted to go pretty heavy here. Wanted to double up on the NE tandem to almost ensure at least one decent score a week, but Gronk's salary kept causing me problems elsewhere. Settled on Graham/Hernandez/Kendricks/Moore.
3. Moved to QB: Wanted 3 with different bye weeks. Ben/Campbell/McCoy. Decided on Ben as my main guy as I like his and McCoy's schedule playing the NFC West, etc. Liked Ben's late bye week. Never really considered anybody at QB higher priced than Ben.
4. Then I started at the bottom of each of the RB and WR lists and just worked my way up clicking on guys that I thought I would be "ok" with having on my team and that seemed like decent value. By the time I got done with that I had way too many players but it gave me a starting point.
5. Went in thinking that I was going to go for some quality over quantity at RB and the opposite at WR; as IMO the WR posiiton can be a little more volitle each week. After locking down 3 decent RB's ended up backing them up with 5 more and ended up with just as many (8) RB's as I did WR's, which wasn't the plan.
6. WR: Got (8) with no more than two sharing a bye week at any point. Highest priced is $19 (Mario). Haven't used him or my second highest yet (MSW). While Plax/Burleson/Decker/Massaq/D.Moore/A. Brown have all contributed at least twice each.
29 man roster. Lean towards the higher roster number than lower. If I had it to do again, I would probably load up more on TE as I think they represent some value for as cheap as you can get them and the fact that you can use them as a flex.
Would love to see a ranking showing points scored by each player at this point.
2. TE: At 1.5 PPR, a full point more than RB, and the ability to use them as flex, wanted to go pretty heavy here. Wanted to double up on the NE tandem to almost ensure at least one decent score a week, but Gronk's salary kept causing me problems elsewhere. Settled on Graham/Hernandez/Kendricks/Moore.
3. Moved to QB: Wanted 3 with different bye weeks. Ben/Campbell/McCoy. Decided on Ben as my main guy as I like his and McCoy's schedule playing the NFC West, etc. Liked Ben's late bye week. Never really considered anybody at QB higher priced than Ben.
4. Then I started at the bottom of each of the RB and WR lists and just worked my way up clicking on guys that I thought I would be "ok" with having on my team and that seemed like decent value. By the time I got done with that I had way too many players but it gave me a starting point.
5. Went in thinking that I was going to go for some quality over quantity at RB and the opposite at WR; as IMO the WR posiiton can be a little more volitle each week. After locking down 3 decent RB's ended up backing them up with 5 more and ended up with just as many (8) RB's as I did WR's, which wasn't the plan.
6. WR: Got (8) with no more than two sharing a bye week at any point. Highest priced is $19 (Mario). Haven't used him or my second highest yet (MSW). While Plax/Burleson/Decker/Massaq/D.Moore/A. Brown have all contributed at least twice each.
29 man roster. Lean towards the higher roster number than lower. If I had it to do again, I would probably load up more on TE as I think they represent some value for as cheap as you can get them and the fact that you can use them as a flex.
Would love to see a ranking showing points scored by each player at this point.
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Stinkin Ref --
I used a lot of the same strategies in picking my team as well. Worked from bottom up taking DEf, Kickers 3 of each the cheapest I could find, then went to find a good QB combo that I felt would throw a lot of TD's and were on good teams (Rivers/Ryan). I got burned at TE last year so I decided to go with 5 this year (Hernandez/Celek/Kendricks/Moore/Pitta) and for RB WR I was think of going with 6 RB and 10 WR's but ended up the same as you with 8 of each. Now I have 2 WR's out for the year so that leaves me with 8 RB's and only 6 WR's (not what I planned).
That rankings idea would be nice to see as well.
I used a lot of the same strategies in picking my team as well. Worked from bottom up taking DEf, Kickers 3 of each the cheapest I could find, then went to find a good QB combo that I felt would throw a lot of TD's and were on good teams (Rivers/Ryan). I got burned at TE last year so I decided to go with 5 this year (Hernandez/Celek/Kendricks/Moore/Pitta) and for RB WR I was think of going with 6 RB and 10 WR's but ended up the same as you with 8 of each. Now I have 2 WR's out for the year so that leaves me with 8 RB's and only 6 WR's (not what I planned).
That rankings idea would be nice to see as well.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
'Tennessee_ATO said:
It's funny how Moss produces every year, but always seems to be a bargain.
pocketducks
Footballguy
Looking forward to the games today! 
I love this contest. Is it normal to get nervous every week to see if you are going to make the cut?
I love this contest. Is it normal to get nervous every week to see if you are going to make the cut?
Txns8
Footballguy
Completely!Looking forward to the games today!
Saint
Footballguy
Welcome to the subscriber thread! Too bad DD hasn't had a chance to post the anticipated scores and cut lines this year... that rocked. If you haven't had a chance to check out oc's live scoring link, you need to check that out. Link is in first thread. After the games he'll be posting anticipated cut lines.Looking forward to the games today!
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Really hoping there are still lots of poorly constructed rosters who will fall hard on this bye week. I constructed my team to be pretty week 5 bye heavy, hoping to get them out of the way while the cut was still relatively low.
This week will be interesting with all of the Detroit players on rosters. Things will be up in the air until late.
This week will be interesting with all of the Detroit players on rosters. Things will be up in the air until late.
pocketducks
Footballguy
I totally enjoy OC's link and encourage everyone to donate as well.
That said I'm not sure if it's updating today yet. Though it is early in the games.
That said I'm not sure if it's updating today yet. Though it is early in the games.
Even with it not updating, it's got my correct score correct. Going to need a real low cut line.
Yeah, my link is still showing last week.'JamesFFB said:
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Then we are tied!No point total for me.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Was hoping Pittsburgh would sit Ben for a week to make sure he was around for week 6(only have 2 QBs this year and my backup's off next week).
So, yeeeah, I'm pretty glad they don't call and ask me to make the decisions on actives/inactives in Pittsburgh.
So, yeeeah, I'm pretty glad they don't call and ask me to make the decisions on actives/inactives in Pittsburgh.
My leading scorer is Buffalo D. Denver D is in the top 3 or 4 but their score won't count.Just added my score. 130. Aaron Hernandez (-4.5) left.
massraider
Footballguy
With bye week players getting nothing, it's a nice week to have Janikowski.
I have no idea what my score will be but my RB/WR/TE got 0 TD'sMy leading scorer is Buffalo D. Denver D is in the top 3 or 4 but their score won't count.Just added my score. 130. Aaron Hernandez (-4.5) left.
rustycolts
Footballguy
The way my team is stinking it up I sure hope so.Could be a new record lowest cut line this week.
wollac
Footballguy
Here's just a little reminder to help us all keep hope alive this week. Last year, bye weeks started in Week 4. Last year, the cutoff dropped from 145.0 (Wk 3) to 129.75 (Wk 4). If that same percentage holds up this year, you're looking at an approximate cut line of 127.15 this week. I'm currently sitting at 112.95 with a few players to go.
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Saint
Footballguy
Ummmm... yeah. You missed the whole group of us crying about not breaking 100... C'mon Man! Have some empathy!
KGB
Footballguy
wollac
Footballguy
No, the site is working just fine...you're players are just having a really bad day.
KGB
Footballguy
No, the site is working just fine...you're players are just having a really bad day.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
It appears that the changes I updated last week inadvertently broke the switch to the new week. It still thought it was week 4 and wasn't updating the correct games.I've been out of the house all day and wasn't watching my team score since I was out of it. I've resolved the issue and things should be back to working normally.
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Saint
Footballguy
Thanks OC! If you don't mind, can you simulate a cutoff after the 4 PM games? I'm praying for a miracle this week.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I have 74.3 with Ryan,Turner,Gonzales and Burelson to go.Not looking to good but it aint over till the fat lady sings.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
As soon as this denver game is over, I will process the current cut line. It takes about 15-20 minutes fyi.
pocketducks
Footballguy
Thanks OC! We have a bunch of nervous posters this week. I'm sitting at 137.9 and hoping for a low cutoff line this week as are many others.
It won't be anywhere near that high. I need the cut to be in the low 120's to have a shot.
Irish Chaos
Footballguy
so my 140 should be more than enough to survive again??
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Process is running, about 50% complete. Taking a little longer I assume from an influx of people checking their scores since it's been down all day. Should be complete in about 15 mins at the speed it's currently processing.
smarchit
Footballguy
Sweating it out much more this week. I still have a few of my better players waiting for the primetime games, but currently sitting at 107.5 right now doesn't exactly give a warm cuddly feeling about my future prospects in this contest.
Waiting out Stafford (-10.6), Jahvid Best/Jerome Harrison (-11.7), Cobb (-1.6) (Thank you very much Eric Decker, Denarius Moore
), and Detroit TM (-5). Lots of room for improvement this week!
Waiting out Stafford (-10.6), Jahvid Best/Jerome Harrison (-11.7), Cobb (-1.6) (Thank you very much Eric Decker, Denarius Moore
), and Detroit TM (-5). Lots of room for improvement this week!
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Looks like the current cutoff is pretty low, 80.8.
I had some technical difficulties, so I will double check it after the game is over tonight.
I had some technical difficulties, so I will double check it after the game is over tonight.
