***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

[kardplayer]

Quick shout out (again) to OC for sharing his roster database with me yesterday morning. Enabled me to do the "Live Scoring" last night during the game. Thanks for doing 99%+ of the work!

 

[chet]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining.

Put that in Random Shots.

 

[simey]

i got the noose this week.

good luck to all you still remaining.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	77	2.2%19	1393	25	1.8%20	1059	41	3.9%21	836	34	4.1%22	766	36	4.7%23	641	37	5.8%24	547	44	8.0%25	396	25	6.3%26	415	39	9.4%27	296	31	10.5%28	269	33	12.3%29	214	26	12.1%30	375	54	14.4%

 

[NYRAGE]

191 one more cut to go. It's going to be tough.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

One out of 22, for a survival rate of 4.55%. Not far off from the non-staff entry survival rate of 4.66%.

 

[BassNBrew]

roster size on left. weekly and yearly survivor percentages on the right.

18 - 77 advance, 105 out 42.3 / 2.2

19 - 25 advance, 51 out 32.9 / 1.8

20 - 41 advance, 41 out 50.0 / 3.9

21 - 34 advance, 48 out 41.5 / 4.1

22 - 36 advance, 49 out 42.4 / 4.7

23 - 37 advance, 30 out 55.2 / 5.8

24 - 44 advance, 34 out 56.4 / 8.0

25 - 25 advance, 36 out 41.0 / 6.3

26 - 39 advance, 29 out 57.4 / 9.4

27 - 31 advance, 20 out 60.8 / 10.5

28 - 33 advance, 24 out 57.8 / 12.3

29 - 26 advance, 18 out 59.1 / 12.2

30 - 54 advance, 18 out 75.0 / 14.4

Wonder why 25 man rosters got crushed this week? Not a good week to have a man man roster either.

Large rosters now roughly 6 times more likely to survive to this point than the small roster.

 

[northwoods]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	77	2.2%19	1393	25	1.8%20	1059	41	3.9%21	836	34	4.1%22	766	36	4.7%23	641	37	5.8%24	547	44	8.0%25	396	25	6.3%26	415	39	9.4%27	296	31	10.5%28	269	33	12.3%29	214	26	12.1%30	375	54	14.4%

My early prediction of 40 18 man teams in the final 250 is looking shaky with the high attrition rate of the small teams but I'm sticking with it until proven wrong next week. Happy to be among the 26 remaining 29 man teams moving on to the last cutoff week...Good luck to all!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

There are 501 non-staff entries left. If we just sort their scores for each week, and see how many times each entry would have been in the top 250, these are the results. May give you a decent idea of where you stand among the competition going into this final week:

Entry #	Top 250102946	12100814	12105666	11104736	11109157	11104337	11102564	11101883	11104781	11100554	11104909	10104064	10101835	10105039	10106288	10103223	10102370	10103327	10110006	10102267	10110241	10107449	10101256	10103694	10103573	10109047	9106665	9103126	9103905	9104613	9102410	9103236	9102427	9102531	9105489	9107406	9103222	9104493	9105783	9102733	9107357	9104491	9100025	9100787	9105635	9108000	9103214	9102386	9104207	9100367	9102325	9101560	9106470	9107026	9102367	9107059	9102301	9106490	9103650	9109733	9100051	9104849	9100146	9102794	9102091	8100067	8107272	8102224	8109679	8100591	8101166	8101706	8102049	8100459	8100358	8106245	8108530	8108404	8107910	8106132	8107937	8103850	8104927	8104010	8102955	8105388	8107530	8100294	8103284	8102322	8103400	8108557	8105667	8101445	8109177	8108415	8108523	8100149	8104554	8104344	8106919	8103419	8106964	8103768	8105830	8100708	8100581	8104766	8108709	8103349	8106669	8100881	8102263	8108734	8105401	8105571	8110619	8104445	8101368	8105607	8100662	7100902	7110489	7109129	7100500	7105524	7103266	7105428	7101287	7105746	7102570	7100604	7108841	7102483	7102934	7100004	7103320	7107534	7106003	7100364	7104808	7102938	7105303	7106161	7100908	7100436	7109108	7106988	7105487	7108204	7103997	7102255	7108879	7103304	7106584	7109923	7103772	7100737	7103092	7106827	7101632	7102653	7104917	7106383	7101490	7103459	7100145	7110089	7100616	7101194	7101544	7108494	7105159	7109191	7104152	7105529	7106374	7101448	7103045	7106075	7110466	7102250	7106397	7101283	7105310	7102734	7108323	7105776	7102687	7106113	7100796	7102196	7108943	7107641	7103887	7108129	7102289	7107971	7102145	7106418	7100029	7104342	7101480	6103558	6107944	6106078	6107100	6109168	6105321	6105209	6104484	6100932	6102416	6104537	6110166	6102430	6103764	6108395	6103200	6109195	6101473	6106328	6107092	6101079	6102339	6103922	6106084	6106402	6108532	6106276	6100550	6102823	6109333	6102114	6106747	6101444	6105153	6105584	6108374	6103404	6108238	6103063	6108069	6100722	6100909	6102183	6102442	6109849	6103720	6103833	6101318	6101091	6109557	6100052	6107153	6104358	6100072	6101298	6102087	6103733	6105243	6102111	6110371	6101476	6102650	6105354	6106627	6107898	6101449	6109064	6109476	6103186	6108305	6102446	6103262	6105339	6100535	6103993	6108614	6101077	6100593	6101397	6106417	6108077	6109160	6105987	6106167	6109151	6100979	6100812	6106521	6104427	6104157	6102619	6104588	6105954	6106856	6101483	6102861	6102002	6104054	6100484	5102783	5100074	5102985	5103280	5109233	5100676	5101054	5108086	5103742	5105470	5101270	5106859	5108778	5101257	5105907	5108102	5100250	5109640	5100864	5101423	5102971	5108481	5108909	5100105	5108703	5102243	5105989	5103052	5106354	5100549	5100229	5103482	5108377	5100312	5100338	5104590	5108848	5105574	5101697	5103046	5105495	5105075	5105552	5102324	5109205	5102014	5103417	5110002	5104399	5102477	5106286	5101686	5109811	5106946	5104497	5108827	5102001	5102489	5104596	5108742	5105676	5100394	5100612	5100935	5109675	5107765	5106692	5100772	5106738	5108649	5106356	5105525	5107800	5103023	4105399	4107154	4105372	4109442	4104538	4107909	4107016	4110162	4102012	4100487	4108190	4103020	4103079	4104598	4100746	4107826	4102492	4106194	4107084	4102778	4101881	4103487	4103681	4105778	4100340	4100443	4103330	4106918	4107705	4100014	4101668	4100260	4106632	4102916	4103763	4103308	4107695	4106563	4100177	4109024	4100963	4107227	4106061	4107002	4104842	4105912	4102540	4105381	4106834	4106115	4108740	4108154	4107111	4100152	4103940	4109932	4107818	4110230	4108816	4109887	4104299	3102963	3104131	3107022	3103776	3103724	3103257	3103816	3100198	3105603	3105970	3101704	3102927	3100991	3102207	3109297	3110094	3108234	3105593	3103801	3101974	3101460	3102765	3110203	3104519	3108183	3102984	3103062	3103839	3103699	3102837	3101164	3106301	3102862	3108135	3108225	3105941	3105007	3102950	3106995	2103562	2107400	2100275	2101882	2103305	2105725	2100352	2101991	2102911	2102015	2103885	2102991	2108130	2105838	2102242	2104495	2107832	2107242	1105439	1108282	1105229	1107476	1101016	1105757	0103442	0

 

[wollac]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	77	2.2%19	1393	25	1.8%20	1059	41	3.9%21	836	34	4.1%22	766	36	4.7%23	641	37	5.8%24	547	44	8.0%25	396	25	6.3%26	415	39	9.4%27	296	31	10.5%28	269	33	12.3%29	214	26	12.1%30	375	54	14.4%

About time the 30-man roster takes its spot at the top!

 

[shahekee]

Would have made it 8 times thus far. I'd sure like to make it one more time. I've never competed for the prizes.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

 

[wollac]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

I couldn't disagree more. Making the final 250 is more skill than luck. Where you place in the final 250 is more luck than skill.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

I couldn't disagree more. Making the final 250 is more skill than luck. Where you place in the final 250 is more luck than skill.

I think they're both more luck than skill, but the luck:skill ratio in making the final 250 isn't as large as it is for where you place in the final 250.

 

[northwoods]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

I think I disagree...Luck is invloved with regards to injuries but doing well in this contest is also a function of bye week positioning, roster size, roster balance and picking undervalued players. Not mostly luck...

 

[apalmer]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

 

[apalmer]

There are 501 non-staff entries left. If we just sort their scores for each week, and see how many times each entry would have been in the top 250, these are the results. May give you a decent idea of where you stand among the competition going into this final week:

My 7 times seems to put me pretty well in the middle of the pack. I guess that means I have a 50% chance of making the 50% cut. Imagine that.

 

[BassNBrew]

Texas Two Step - 9 Foster owners remain and 9 AJ owners remain. The last two teams with both were eliminated this week. 57 people attempted the double Texan stud theory.

Cut Bait Time - 30 of 61 Schuab owners and 8 of 16 Cutler owners survived week 12.

Dynamic Denver Duo - 9 people started the year with Orton/Tebow. The last remaining was cut this week. Tebow might be saving his team, but 5 of 7 Tewbow owners say farewell, leaving two. In a head scratcher, Tebow owners were acutally eliminated at a higher rate than Orton owners (16 of 29 gone).

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My dumb team, which I was sure was going to be eliminated every week since the beginning of October, has made it to the final 500 but I don't love my chances to make the final 250, and certainly don't have any shot at the money. But it's been a fun ride.

I'm already looking forward to the Postseason Subscriber Contest.

 

[wollac]

For some reason I thought the cutline from Week 12 to Week 13 jumped substantially, but looking back over the last two years, that is not the case:

2009:

Week 12: 167.89

Week 13: 164.24

2010:

Week 12: 162.10

Week 13: 168.80

Ignoratio, can you run a query like you did this morning of the remaining 501 and show how many times each team surpassed 168.80 for just the non-bye weeks?

 

[LittlePhatty]

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

Well, that's why I said "mostly" luck but I see plenty of people still disagree. Of course it's not random. That would be 100% luck.I still think it is "mostly", simply because of the numbers involved. 10,000+ entries means roughly 2.5% make the finals. I have to believe that far more than 2.5% of entries were "skillfully-chosen", so even discarding all the other entries - within that subset of skillfully-chosen rosters it's mostly luck (both good and bad) that determines your fate after the bye weeks. Beyond week 11 you're up against other well-chosen entries, all of which were picked 3 months ago.

 

[inyoutees]

After missing the cut by 0.95 last week, its now onto the Coulda-Woulda-Shoulda / Tears In My Beer / Self Inflicted Torture part of the contest. This week, I would have easily escaped the turk with my 196.6 score. Of course, using OC's "What If" data, I should have potentially been eliminated 3 other times prior to week 11. But conveniently ignoring that, I could've been a somebody in the final 500 . Instead, I'm just a nobody posting meaningless drivel

Right there with ya. Missed by 0.25 last week, hit 167.1 this week. But it sure is fun reading the thread. I've got my favorites I'm rooting for.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Ignoratio, can you run a query like you did this morning of the remaining 501 and show how many times each team surpassed 168.80 for just the non-bye weeks?

Week 	Type	Count1	NoBye	3692	NoBye	4343	NoBye	3134	NoBye	3095	Byes	256	Byes	57	Byes	258	Byes	1679	Byes	25510	NoBye	27511	Byes	9512	NoBye	244

Weeks 10 and 12, 275 and 244 teams, respecitvely, out of these final 501 put up 168.80+. So that looks like a reasonable, albeit rough, expectation for the cutline this week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

This is really what I should have posted earlier instead of that giant table. These are what the cutoffs would have been each week, looking at just the final 501 teams and cutting them to the top 250:

Week Cutoff1 178.852 189.63 173.74 175.255 129.456 136.857 135.858 160.79 169.2510 170.511 153.412 168.5
So we're probably looking at a cut line in the 160s or 170s, as expected.

 

[wollac]

Iggy, great stuff. I guess I was looking for a list like you did this morning, by roster number, and # of weeks (from the non-bye weeks only) surpassing 168.80. If it can't be done, I'm happy with what you've already provided.

 

[Bad_Mo]

101706 8

I'm perfectly fine with an 8!

 

[Bad_Mo]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

I agree with this. When I selected Ben Tate and Michael Bush, I did so knowing that the guys they were playing behind were injured (Foster) or likely to become injured (Mcfragile).

 

[Bad_Mo]

My dumb team, which I was sure was going to be eliminated every week since the beginning of October, has made it to the final 500 but I don't love my chances to make the final 250, and certainly don't have any shot at the money. But it's been a fun ride. I'm already looking forward to the Postseason Subscriber Contest.

I must have missed the Postseason Subscriber Contest in prior years. Its not ringing any bells. I'll have to keep my eyes open for it this year.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining.

Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

I agree with this. When I selected Ben Tate and Michael Bush, I did so knowing that the guys they were playing behind were injured (Foster) or likely to become injured (Mcfragile).

Sure, but over 4000 people took Ben Tate. 569 people took Michael Bush. Hell, 218 people took Tate and Bush, and most of them have been eliminated. There's definitely skill involved in constructing your roster, but when only 250 out of 10,775 entries make the finals, it's mostly luck.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My dumb team, which I was sure was going to be eliminated every week since the beginning of October, has made it to the final 500 but I don't love my chances to make the final 250, and certainly don't have any shot at the money. But it's been a fun ride.

I'm already looking forward to the Postseason Subscriber Contest.

I must have missed the Postseason Subscriber Contest in prior years. Its not ringing any bells. I'll have to keep my eyes open for it this year.

It's taken on various forms over the years IIRC. I believe it's been basically the same format the past two years, though; here are the rules to last year's postseason contest.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sure, but over 4000 people took Ben Tate. 569 people took Michael Bush. Hell, 218 people took Tate and Bush, and most of them have been eliminated. There's definitely skill involved in constructing your roster, but when only 250 out of 10,775 entries make the finals, it's mostly luck.

I think if you avoid injuries (luck) and select a big roster (zero luck) and select a common roster (low luck), you've got a very high chance of advancing...at least to the final 500. We've probably thinned out the unique rosters enough that the best ball component of this contest will kick in.

 

[kardplayer]

I think there's three kinds of entries:

1. No shot entries (aka "Junk") - these are the ones that have all of their players on the same bye week, or a significant # of players that are out for the season before the season starts

2. Long shot entries - on the face they may seem reasonable but logically, so much has to break right for them to win, that they really aren't viable competitors

3. Skilled entries - well thought out, well constructed, as good a chance as anyone else in this bucket to win the whole thing, and way better odds than #2

Skill is putting yourself into bucket 3. Luck is having things break right to be the best of those in bucket 3.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining.

Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

I agree with this. When I selected Ben Tate and Michael Bush, I did so knowing that the guys they were playing behind were injured (Foster) or likely to become injured (Mcfragile).

Sure, but over 4000 people took Ben Tate. 569 people took Michael Bush. Hell, 218 people took Tate and Bush, and most of them have been eliminated. There's definitely skill involved in constructing your roster, but when only 250 out of 10,775 entries make the finals, it's mostly luck.

I wonder how many teams advanced to the final 500 due to the performances of guys like Knox, Moore, Janikowski, Wells, Jones, etc. You wouldn't think that those guys are going to have back to back great weeks.

 

[The Future Champs]

After missing the cut by 0.95 last week, its now onto the Coulda-Woulda-Shoulda / Tears In My Beer / Self Inflicted Torture part of the contest. This week, I would have easily escaped the turk with my 196.6 score. Of course, using OC's "What If" data, I should have potentially been eliminated 3 other times prior to week 11. But conveniently ignoring that, I could've been a somebody in the final 500 . Instead, I'm just a nobody posting meaningless drivel

Don't be so hard on yourself. We're all posting meaningless drivel, and the "somebodies" just post more. See ya in the postseason contest.

 

[apalmer]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining.

Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Mostly luck? I don't think so. Certainly there is a large element of luck involved, but I would say "most" of reaching the finals is crafting a team that can survive bad luck. You know there are going to be injuries and you know guys are going to have bad weeks, so you have to pick a team with a chance to survive that. Making the finals is not a random event.

I agree with this. When I selected Ben Tate and Michael Bush, I did so knowing that the guys they were playing behind were injured (Foster) or likely to become injured (Mcfragile).

Sure, but over 4000 people took Ben Tate. 569 people took Michael Bush. Hell, 218 people took Tate and Bush, and most of them have been eliminated. There's definitely skill involved in constructing your roster, but when only 250 out of 10,775 entries make the finals, it's mostly luck.

I wonder how many teams advanced to the final 500 due to the performances of guys like Knox, Moore, Janikowski, Wells, Jones, etc. You wouldn't think that those guys are going to have back to back great weeks.

Maybe not, but their owners dont' expect them to--that's the "best ball" factor BnB mentioned. I got great weeks from Brady, Wells, Moore & Stevie J. to get me through, but would have made it even if 1 or 2 of them had put up a 0. Next week (hopefully) if they don't do it, somebody else will (although I'd feel more comfortable if McFadden would get back on the field).

 

[QuizGuy66]

This is the breakdown I came up with for the final 502 (including the staffer) in terms of position counts and survival.

Format: Alive/Total Started. Alive%

For reference total alive percentage is 4.66%

QB:

1 - 5/223 2.24%

2 - 308/6523 4.72%

3 - 171/3455 4.95%

4 - 15/465 3.23%

5 - 2/77 2.60%

6 - 1/12 8.33%

7 - 0/20 0.00%

RB:

2 - 1/90 1.11%

3 - 15/656 2.29%

4 - 72/2401 3.00%

5 - 113/3288 3.44%

6 - 115/2203 5.22%

7 - 94/1194 7.94%

8 - 58/602 9.63%

9 - 24/247 9.72%

10 - 7/81 8.64%

11 - 2/16 12.50%

12 - 0/4 0.00%

13+ 1/3 33.33% (the entry has 14 RBs )

WR:

3 - 2/148 1.35%

4 - 7/757 0.92%

5 - 64/2611 2.45%

6 - 107/3212 3.33%

7 - 105/2022 5.19%

8 - 99/1083 9.14%

9 - 71/574 12.37%

10 - 31/223 13.90%

11 - 11/104 10.58%

12 - 3/25 12.00%

13 - 2/8 25.00%

14 - 0/4 0.00%

15+ - 0/4 0.00%

TE:

1 - 6/583 1.03%

2 - 189/5962 3.17%

3 - 222/3408 6.51%

4 - 69/708 9.75%

5 - 16/96 16.67%

6 - 0/13 0.00%

7+ - 0/5 0.00%

PK:

1 - 13/826 1.57%

2 - 253/6554 3.86%

3 - 179/2706 6.61%

4 - 44/515 8.54%

5 - 11/100 11.00%

6 - 1/39 2.56%

7+ - 1/35 2.86% (entry in question has 7 kickers)

Def:

1 - 18/849 2.12%

2 - 253/6600 3.85%

3 - 188/2703 6.96%

4 - 40/503 7.95%

5 - 3/89 3.37%

6 - 0/18 0.00%

7+ - 0/13 0.00%

-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Next year I'm going with 6 QBs, 14 RBs, 13 WRs, 5 TEs, 5 Ks and 4 Ds. :championship:

 

[aposulli]

I think there's three kinds of entries:

1. No shot entries (aka "Junk") - these are the ones that have all of their players on the same bye week, or a significant # of players that are out for the season before the season starts

2. Long shot entries - on the face they may seem reasonable but logically, so much has to break right for them to win, that they really aren't viable competitors

3. Skilled entries - well thought out, well constructed, as good a chance as anyone else in this bucket to win the whole thing, and way better odds than #2

Skill is putting yourself into bucket 3. Luck is having things break right to be the best of those in bucket 3.

Hi guys,Haven't posted here in awhile. You can guess why I'm back.

I found the querier form to be a pretty neat tool. (Howcome it's not linked on any of the Contest pages? Should be easier to find.)

I'll spare everyone the nitty gritty details of my team, but I will point out one team I found that is shockingly still alive and shockingly stacked...

110466 (AKA bigbraynboy)

You want to talk about "junk entries"

*18 total Players

*Included only 1 starting QB entering the season (A.Rodgers)

*Included only 1 healthy starting RB entering the season (R.Rice)

*Included only 1 other active RB entering the season (T.Choice)

*Included only 1 TE on his roster

*Included only 5 healthy WRs entering the season (Had to start 4 from the very beginning)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 5 (R.Rice/T.Choice/B.Marshall)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 8 (A.Rodgers/E.Bennett/D.Heyward-Bey/N.Folk/PackersD)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 11 (A.Foster/D.Brown/J.Graham/S.Suisham)

The shocking part is that he really wasn't all that close to getting cut throughout the season (only twice within 25 points & never within 11 points)

The best part? If you were to re-rank players for Weeks 13-16, his roster would include the cream of the crop. Personally, I would put Rodgers, Foster, Rice, Welker, Graham at the very top of their respective positions.

Throw in V.Jax and Marshall, and that leaves only a flex spot to be filled.

It becomes even more mind-boggling when you consider he has 3 decent, if not, high-upside options all of a sudden at RB (D.Brown, Choice, Vereen)

You'd have to ask Herman about his Kicker potential

As far as Defenses... the Packers and Cardinals isn't a dreadful combo, and they have at least a couple of decent matchups down the stretch

Even with such a top-heavy roster, nothing is a given.

I just hope this team misses the final cut

-Concerned Rodgers/Welker/VJax/Graham owner

 

[kardplayer]

I think there's three kinds of entries:

1. No shot entries (aka "Junk") - these are the ones that have all of their players on the same bye week, or a significant # of players that are out for the season before the season starts

2. Long shot entries - on the face they may seem reasonable but logically, so much has to break right for them to win, that they really aren't viable competitors

3. Skilled entries - well thought out, well constructed, as good a chance as anyone else in this bucket to win the whole thing, and way better odds than #2

Skill is putting yourself into bucket 3. Luck is having things break right to be the best of those in bucket 3.

Hi guys,Haven't posted here in awhile. You can guess why I'm back.

I found the querier form to be a pretty neat tool. (Howcome it's not linked on any of the Contest pages? Should be easier to find.)

I'll spare everyone the nitty gritty details of my team, but I will point out one team I found that is shockingly still alive and shockingly stacked...

110466 (AKA bigbraynboy)

You want to talk about "junk entries"

*18 total Players

*Included only 1 starting QB entering the season (A.Rodgers)

*Included only 1 healthy starting RB entering the season (R.Rice)

*Included only 1 other active RB entering the season (T.Choice)

*Included only 1 TE on his roster

*Included only 5 healthy WRs entering the season (Had to start 4 from the very beginning)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 5 (R.Rice/T.Choice/B.Marshall)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 8 (A.Rodgers/E.Bennett/D.Heyward-Bey/N.Folk/PackersD)

*Included multiple key players on Bye in Week 11 (A.Foster/D.Brown/J.Graham/S.Suisham)

The shocking part is that he really wasn't all that close to getting cut throughout the season (only twice within 25 points & never within 11 points)

The best part? If you were to re-rank players for Weeks 13-16, his roster would include the cream of the crop. Personally, I would put Rodgers, Foster, Rice, Welker, Graham at the very top of their respective positions.

Throw in V.Jax and Marshall, and that leaves only a flex spot to be filled.

It becomes even more mind-boggling when you consider he has 3 decent, if not, high-upside options all of a sudden at RB (D.Brown, Choice, Vereen)

You'd have to ask Herman about his Kicker potential

As far as Defenses... the Packers and Cardinals isn't a dreadful combo, and they have at least a couple of decent matchups down the stretch

Even with such a top-heavy roster, nothing is a given.

I just hope this team misses the final cut

-Concerned Rodgers/Welker/VJax/Graham owner

Interestingly, if Ponder hadn't taken over for McNabb by Rodgers bye week, he's a goner (made cut by 12, Ponder had 18)

 

[Johnny Rock]

Happy to make it this far. No real business being in it still with McFadden out recently and Hightower done. What a waste of $10 on Lee Evans too.

 

[northwoods]

Happy to make it this far. No real business being in it still with McFadden out recently and Hightower done. What a waste of $10 on Lee Evans too.

I'm counting on Lee Evans to kick it into gear for my push to the Final 250...Peyton Hillis as well for that matter.

 

[rustycolts]

After thinking I missed the cut allday I come home from work and low and behold I made it with 154.8.Talk about making it by the skin of your teeth .25 sometimes it s better to be lucky than good

 

[Johnny Rock]

Happy to make it this far. No real business being in it still with McFadden out recently and Hightower done. What a waste of $10 on Lee Evans too.

I'm counting on Lee Evans to kick it into gear for my push to the Final 250...Peyton Hillis as well for that matter.

 

[BassNBrew]

After thinking I missed the cut allday I come home from work and low and behold I made it with 154.8.Talk about making it by the skin of your teeth .25 sometimes it s better to be lucky than good

Congrats.

 

[jabarony]

Got cut this morning by 5 or 6 points. Farthest ever run for me, though I really had no chance of winning it all.

30-man roster, by-the-way. I was only out Cutler (late), Harrison, & Evans, but many of the other 27 healthy guys were just too scrubby.

Lurked all season and wanted to say thanks for all the good info, stats, etc. Very cool.

 

[smarchit]

After missing the cut by 0.95 last week, its now onto the Coulda-Woulda-Shoulda / Tears In My Beer / Self Inflicted Torture part of the contest. This week, I would have easily escaped the turk with my 196.6 score. Of course, using OC's "What If" data, I should have potentially been eliminated 3 other times prior to week 11. But conveniently ignoring that, I could've been a somebody in the final 500 . Instead, I'm just a nobody posting meaningless drivel

Don't be so hard on yourself. We're all posting meaningless drivel, and the "somebodies" just post more. See ya in the postseason contest.

Yep! I'll likely be making another whiny appearance in this thread next week along the same lines. Just the sadomasochist in me I guess!

 

[Saint]

Aren't the staff supposed to be the experts who provide us the info to "dominate" our leagues? They have one entry remaining. Put that in Random Shots.

Making the final 250 in this contest is mostly luck, so that would be like saying someone is an "expert" at Roulette.

Have to disagree as well. The really interesting thing to me is to see how many of the posters that are in this thread routinely each year are also in the top 500 and possible top 250 the last several years. That tells me, there are tricks to the trade and some skill involved in setting that down. Since many of us are in the large roster camp, guess we've learned a thing or two.As for my team, I made it in the Top 250 five times according to Iggy's stats earlier. Had a good investment in MSW that just hasn't paid jack, so I am hoping my team comes through this week. VJax should be due for another big game since he just tanked this past week!

 

[Saint]

Iggy, mind posting the Top 20 players owned by the live teams again?

As for the Top IR List, here's the list:

PLAYER NAME	PERCENT OWNEDTim Hightower		41.0%Danny Amendola		23.8%Jerome Harrison		14.6%Mike Sims-Walker	 9.6%Matt Schaub		 6.0%Chad Henne		 5.2%Roscoe Parrish		 4.8%Knowshon Moreno		 4.6%Jordan Shipley		 4.6%Fred Jackson		 3.0%Kenny Britt		 1.4%David Thomas		 1.4%Jamaal Charles		 1.0%Nate Kaeding		 1.0%Alex Green		 1.0%David Buehler		 0.8%Leonard Hankerson	 0.8%Zach Miller		 0.4%Mike Goodson		 0.4%John Carlson		 0.2% (Down to 1)Michael Hoomanawanui	 0.2% (Down to 1)Josh Morgan		 0.2% (Down to 1)Ryan Williams		 0.2% (Hanging on another week)Rashad Jennings		 0.2% (Hanging on another week)Chris Cooley		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Garrett Hartley		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Bo Scaife		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Tony Moeaki		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Brandon Jackson		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)

 

[wollac]

Iggy, mind posting the Top 20 players owned by the live teams again?As for the Top IR List, here's the list:

PLAYER NAME 	PERCENT OWNEDTim Hightower		41.0%Danny Amendola		23.8%Mike Sims-Walker	 9.6%Matt Schaub		 6.0%Chad Henne		 5.2%Roscoe Parrish		 4.8%Knowshon Moreno		 4.6%Jordan Shipley		 4.6%Fred Jackson		 3.0%Kenny Britt		 1.4%David Thomas		 1.4%Jamaal Charles		 1.0%Nate Kaeding		 1.0%Alex Green		 1.0%David Buehler		 0.8%Leonard Hankerson	 0.8%Zach Miller		 0.4%Mike Goodson		 0.4%John Carlson		 0.2% (Down to 1)Michael Hoomanawanui	 0.2% (Down to 1)Josh Morgan		 0.2% (Down to 1)Ryan Williams		 0.2% (Hanging on another week)Rashad Jennings		 0.2% (Hanging on another week)Chris Cooley		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Garrett Hartley		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Bo Scaife		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Tony Moeaki		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)Brandon Jackson		 0.0% (Eliminated this cut)

Jerome Harrison?

 

[Saint]

Jerome Harrison?

Good catch. Updated the list... He's on 14.6% of remaining rosters.