***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)

[Sister Havana]

Oh, I hope the low cutoff is true. I thought for sure I was dead. (And may yet be)

Sitting at 104.4 with Cutler (-24.5) + Gould (-5) + Bears D (-12).

 

[eaglezzz]

So the cutoff was projected to be 80.8 before the Sunday night game, and now it has moved to 91.55 before the Monday Night game.

What is the projection on how much it will move for tonights game? Maybe 10-15 points. 101.55-106.55???

 

[Sinn Fein]

So the cutoff was projected to be 80.8 before the Sunday night game, and now it has moved to 91.55 before the Monday Night game. What is the projection on how much it will move for tonights game? Maybe 10-15 points. 101.55-106.55???

See above. Its likely to be in 111 range - assuming players hit Dodds' projections.

 

[eaglezzz]

139.65 + (Barber - 11.70) + (Burleson - 5.30)Hope the consensus of a low cut line is true Here's the ownership counts for tomorrow night's game (number of entries alive - this is from the querier so it includes the staff entries).The average entry will have 1.877 guys going tomorrow night.1) M Stafford 31302) N Burleson 23153) Det Def 13604) M Barber 9985) C Johnson 9206) J Harrison 8037) B Pettigrew 7528) J Hanson 7339) J Best 49710) E Bennett 42411) M Forte 36912) D Hester 23713) Chic Def 22814) J Knox 22615) J Cutler 19916) T Scheffler 18917) R Gould 12418) Roy Williams 5519) T Young 5320) M Morris 41-QG

Followup to this here is FBG's actual projections for each player1) M Stafford 28.6 2) N Burleson 8.8 3) Det Def 11.4 4) M Barber 3.6 5) C Johnson 24.5 6) J Harrison 3.1 7) B Pettigrew 17.6 8) J Hanson 10.4 9) J Best 15.6 10) E Bennett 0 11) M Forte 19.4 12) D Hester 8.0 13) Chic Def 5.2 14) J Knox 12.1 15) J Cutler 20.3 16) T Scheffler 3.3 17) R Gould 7.7 18) Roy Williams 6.0 19) T Young 9.0 20) M Morris 0

 

[Modog814]

So the cutoff was projected to be 80.8 before the Sunday night game, and now it has moved to 91.55 before the Monday Night game. What is the projection on how much it will move for tonights game? Maybe 10-15 points. 101.55-106.55???

the cutoff was never really projected to be 80.8 or 91.55, those are just what the cut would be had there been no Sunday Night or Monday Night game. Dodds projections would have the cut line more about 20 points to around 111. This was my guess before looking at Dodds projections. Lots of teams own lions players, so Stafford himself could have a huge impact on how much the line moves. I wouldn't be shocked to see it reach mid to upper 110's, but I think anything over 120 is probably safe.

 

[Modog814]

139.65 + (Barber - 11.70) + (Burleson - 5.30)Hope the consensus of a low cut line is true Here's the ownership counts for tomorrow night's game (number of entries alive - this is from the querier so it includes the staff entries).The average entry will have 1.877 guys going tomorrow night.1) M Stafford 31302) N Burleson 23153) Det Def 13604) M Barber 9985) C Johnson 9206) J Harrison 8037) B Pettigrew 7528) J Hanson 7339) J Best 49710) E Bennett 42411) M Forte 36912) D Hester 23713) Chic Def 22814) J Knox 22615) J Cutler 19916) T Scheffler 18917) R Gould 12418) Roy Williams 5519) T Young 5320) M Morris 41-QG

Followup to this here is FBG's actual projections for each player1) M Stafford 28.6 2) N Burleson 8.8 3) Det Def 11.4 4) M Barber 3.6 5) C Johnson 24.5 6) J Harrison 3.1 7) B Pettigrew 17.6 8) J Hanson 10.4 9) J Best 15.6 10) E Bennett 0 11) M Forte 19.4 12) D Hester 8.0 13) Chic Def 5.2 14) J Knox 12.1 15) J Cutler 20.3 16) T Scheffler 3.3 17) R Gould 7.7 18) Roy Williams 6.0 19) T Young 9.0 20) M Morris 0

Stafford seems to have the most influence on where the cut line will end up. Plugging in some numbers for him, it seems that the cut line will rise by about 25-30% of his score. So if he scored 20 pts, the cut line should rise about 5 points, if he scored 40, the line should rise about 12 points.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I cannot believe I bought into the Manningham hype. Ugh. That 19 bucks could ahve been spread amongst 3 other receivers.

I feel your pain. He was on a couple of my teams before I dumped him.

 

[jdoggydogg]

That Steve Breaston pick finally paid off!

 

[jimmy b]

FINAL SCORE

Detroit - 3

Bears- 0

(Sitting at 105.9)

 

[topman]

This is my first year in this contest. I must be missing something. How do you see your points before all the games are done? I have been waiting until Tuesday to make sure I moved on. When I look at it now it shows no points yet for week 5. Where do you see it?

 

[topman]

Forget it I guess I have to learn to read the first post.

 

[HALtheCOW]

Forget it I guess I have to learn to read the first post.

But you are a fast learner

 

[Saint]

So the first bye week and many of us are stressing on the line movement tonight. So how many of you front-loaded your byes and starting to regret it?

I have 7 out of 24 players on bye (29.2%) which accounted for $85 or about 34% of my total roster cost. Hoping to survive it.

 

[The Man With No Name]

So the first bye week and many of us are stressing on the line movement tonight. So how many of you front-loaded your byes and starting to regret it? I have 7 out of 24 players on bye (29.2%) which accounted for $85 or about 34% of my total roster cost. Hoping to survive it.

Not regretting it. 7 on BYE, 3 out injured this week, but will comfortably make the cut. Only 2 wr scores this week, 3 on BYE, 2 injured, 1 zero.

 

[gandalas]

Wow, I thought my 118.50 was cut for sure until I saw the projected stat line...

Still have Det DEF (-17.00) and Jerome Harrison (-7.80), doubt either will count unless Harrison gets a lucky TD or something.

Still, with Rivers out next week, will be counting on Colt McCoy to score for me. Not a pleasant feeling.

 

[jamil]

well it was fun. made it pretty far last year but looks like im bowing out early.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

After Sundays games I am sitting at 64.5 Tonight I will have Stafford (-10.6), Harrison (-4.6), Calvin (-0), Burleson (-2.8), Pettigrew (-0)Between bye's and injuries my team really was crap this week. I pretty much need Stafford to go off, with Calvin, Burleson and Pettigrew splitting the love to have a shot.

According to the live scoring, I should be closing out the night with 115.85. Should be close, not sure how much the line moved with tonight's game.

 

[Saint]

Calvin brought me to 126.... hopefully the line stays low.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Calvin brought me to 126.... hopefully the line stays low.

should be fine from everything I've seen. have a drink and watch out for the turk another week.

 

[HALtheCOW]

Calvin brought me to 126.... hopefully the line stays low.

Calvin brought me to 127. I think we will survive, but it will be very close!

 

[Chainz]

103.75...seems like it's time to say goodbye. :(

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Any projected cuts yet?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Didn't improve on my 139.65 but that looks good this week.

I tend to spread my byes out, though I was a little heavy this week (7/27). Managed to survive my WRs disappearing b/c of big weeks by ADP, Daniels, and Buffalo.

Good luck to those sweating the Turk!

-QG

 

[Sister Havana]

Looks like I will be done at 110.4.

 

[therokie0070]

damn gonna be close at 114!!! AJ and byes might have put me in the grave!!!

 

[eaglezzz]

104.65 is what the OC Live Scoring has as the cutoff.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

108.35 here and hoping that isn't far off.

 

[Dizzy]

Didn't improve on my 139.65 but that looks good this week.

I tend to spread my byes out, though I was a little heavy this week (7/27). Managed to survive my WRs disappearing b/c of big weeks by ADP, Daniels, and Buffalo.

Good luck to those sweating the Turk!

-QG

I scored the same... but without a major effort next week, I'll be ousted (tough bye situation combined with struggles of those left to play it out).

 

[Doug Drinen]

Two quick notes.

1. I somehow whiffed on marking Greg Russell's team (105655) as staff. Fortunately, ties at the cut line in weeks 2--4 absorbed the mistake, so there is no need to make any hard decisions. Update your databases accordingly.

2. I wish I had more time to enjoy this thread, but I have had too much going on recently. I hope to be back soon...

 

[jimmy b]

104.65 is what the OC Live Scoring has as the cutoff.

105.90

 

[Bad_Mo]

Week 7 will be the death of me.

 

[QuizGuy66]

For those who haven't wandered over to check their entries - it looks like 104.90 is the official number of the the Turk this week.

-QG

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Still alive with 143.5, but for some reason I don't feel as good about my team as we move forward.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Dez Bryant was my #3 WR this week

Still made the cut

 

[elcohiba]

Can we get numbers by team size of those eliminated this week? Thanks.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Lowest cutoff since week 5 in 2007, which isn't even really comparable since that was in the "everyone has exactly 22 players" era. Definitely a strange week.

Still alive here but not very optimistic about the long-term survival of my team. Week 6 could be the death of me with Rivers and Beanie Wells on bye.

 

[eaglezzz]

Missed the cut by 1 point exactly. Next year I guess

 

[QuizGuy66]

For the curious:

334 out of 667 entries with Orton are still alive.

40 out of 85 entries with Tebow are still alive.

5 out of 9 entries with both are still alive.

-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Can we get numbers by team size of those eliminated this week? Thanks.

Here are the season-long survival rates by roster size:

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	1930	54.1%19	1393	796	57.1%20	1059	576	54.4%21	836	495	59.2%22	766	472	61.6%23	641	358	55.9%24	547	339	62.0%25	396	238	60.1%26	415	243	58.6%27	296	164	55.4%28	269	165	61.3%29	214	136	63.6%30	375	208	55.5%

 

[QuizGuy66]

20-Kicker Guy Lives!

There are 5 7-defense guys still alive.

3 of the original 5 7-tight end guys are still alive.

22-WR Guy Lives!

One of the original 2 14-RB guys still lives!

The best we can do for QB is 7-QB guy!

-QG

 

[Bankerguy]

Survived this week...but I dont like my chances long term.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

20-Kicker Guy Lives!

There are 5 7-defense guys still alive.

3 of the original 5 7-tight end guys are still alive.

22-WR Guy Lives!

One of the original 2 14-RB guys still lives!

The best we can do for QB is 7-QB guy!

-QG

those are awesome.....

 

[Touchdown There]

Chicken Dinner?

I don't think week 7 will be the only 0 for QB for this team.

Hey, his only two currently starting RBs both have a week 5 bye, with Hunter, Harrison, Karim, LSH and Taiwan Jones to cover for them. As Butch Cassidy would say: "Why worry about swimming in Week 7? The Week 5 fall will probably kill us."

Nope. The cut line was as I expected, very low. 50 points to spare.

 

[butcher boy]

Next year I'm buying a second sub to be another 20 kicker guy. It looks like it could be a lot of fun to follow. Roll the dice on all studs with no backups.

I figure I could at least choose a better TE than Jacob Tamme.

 

[TS Garp]

Barely made it through. I've already used 20 guys and that doesn't include a couple of guys I thought I'd used early and often (I'm looking at you, Lee Evans).

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Navigated through this week pretty easily, given the low cut line, but next week is probably going to be ugly. Not a ton of bye week players, but some pretty important ones and injuries are destroying my WRs. Seems I lose another every week.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Well, with .90 from Michael Bush and 4.60 from Karim...my RBs better step it up quickly.

If Vincent Jackson scored a fraction less than his whopping 6.40, I'd be on the outside looking in. I made it by exactly 6.40. Scary.

 

[simey]

That Steve Breaston pick finally paid off!

Joel Dreessen finally counted for me. I scored 161, but i have a lot of players that have not counted for me so far, and I don't know if they ever will. Those players are Stephens-Howling, M. Barber, D. Ward, H. Douglas, B. Berrian, Massaquoi, and Kendricks. I think Massaquoi may have the strongest chance of counting for me in the future, but the others may be wasted money. All of these players are the ones I switched in and out the most through the drafting process. I don't mind having M. Barber though since I have Forte.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If Vincent Jackson scored a fraction less than his whopping 6.40, I'd be on the outside looking in. I made it by exactly 6.40. Scary.

No, if Vincent Jackson scored a fraction less than 6.40, you would have made it by a fraction less than 6.40.

 

[FUBAR]

First week Mario Manningham, Jacoby Ford and the Vikings D counted for me. Leaving Emmanual Sanders and the Rams D as the only players who haven't counted yet.

First week the Texans D didn't count.

I haven't been close to the cut line yet, but it appears my 3 headed TE monster is paying off - Daniels, Pettigrew and Gresham.