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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (3 Viewers)

$63 in dead money, but some was expected and some has been hurt. Had Mendenhall and Simpson ($11 total) knowing they would not contribute early. FJax ($21) hampered by injury. Henderson and Gordon ($7 total) will contribute something if I am around long enough. Crosby and Bironas ($8 total) not factors because Hanson won't let them play - surely their time will come. D Wilson and Blackmon ($16 total) looking like "Was he insane?" picks.

 
Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.
It's all on my work laptop and I don't plan on opening that again until Thursday morning, but I'll try to remember to take a look then.
I should first note that these aren't apples-to-apples comparisons. FBG changed the cutoff levels this year, and there were also a lot fewer entries last year than this year. (There was also a slightly different distribution of roster sizes this year but I don't think that has a meaningful impact.) For example, in week 2 last year we only eliminated 752 teams; in week 2 this year we cut 2,289. In week 3 last year we eliminated 1,499 teams; in week 3 this year we cut 2,004. Here are the raw percentages of teams eliminated by roster size:
Code:
SIZE	2012 W2	2011 W2	2012 W3	2011 W318	18.7%	8.8%	25.0%	17.2%19	18.8%	7.8%	19.3%	12.7%20	15.9%	5.9%	18.2%	15.5%21	17.2%	6.5%	16.9%	14.3%22	16.6%	4.6%	15.0%	14.0%23	16.3%	6.0%	12.5%	14.0%24	15.5%	5.5%	9.3%	11.4%25	16.0%	5.8%	8.4%	13.1%26	14.7%	4.1%	9.6%	15.7%27	13.3%	7.2%	8.6%	15.4%28	14.8%	4.2%	9.7%	15.7%29	12.6%	5.6%	10.2%	9.9%30	14.3%	7.0%	9.4%	15.1%
Here are the relativities (relative to the overall elimination rate for each week):
Code:
SIZE	2012 W2	2011 W2	2012 W3	2011 W318	1.08	1.26	1.37	1.1519	1.09	1.12	1.06	0.8520	0.92	0.84	1.00	1.0421	1.00	0.92	0.93	0.9622	0.96	0.66	0.82	0.9323	0.94	0.85	0.69	0.9324	0.90	0.79	0.51	0.7625	0.93	0.83	0.46	0.8826	0.86	0.59	0.53	1.0527	0.77	1.02	0.47	1.0328	0.86	0.59	0.54	1.0529	0.73	0.80	0.56	0.6630	0.83	1.00	0.52	1.01
 
Iggy, Here's a database query request for ya. Top 10, or 50, or 250 teams based on cumulative points scored weeks 1-3? Since no teams are on bye, and the prize money is awarded over a cumulative 3 week stretch where there are no byes, we may be able to grab an early glimpse of some of the favorite teams out there.Thanks!
Here are the top ten:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE106007	659.20	22103146	650.30	21101100	649.25	18104337	648.90	22101714	639.40	21106211	638.45	28100286	638.30	20108078	637.90	19100103	636.95	18106846	635.85	20
 
Iggy, Here's a database query request for ya. Top 10, or 50, or 250 teams based on cumulative points scored weeks 1-3? Since no teams are on bye, and the prize money is awarded over a cumulative 3 week stretch where there are no byes, we may be able to grab an early glimpse of some of the favorite teams out there.Thanks!
Here are the top ten:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE106007	659.20	22103146	650.30	21101100	649.25	18104337	648.90	22101714	639.40	21106211	638.45	28100286	638.30	20108078	637.90	19100103	636.95	18106846	635.85	20
#3 on the list (101100) looks pretty vulnerable these next two weeks. Very thin at the RB/WR/TE spots and has Spiller and Hernandez.
 
'pizzatyme said:
Code:
SIZE    ALL    ALIVE    SURV %18    4633    2825    61.0%19    1813    1189    65.6%20    1376    946    68.8%21    1142    786    68.8%22    966    685    70.9%23    812    595    73.3%24    626    480    76.7%25    482    371    77.0%26    380    293    77.1%27    308    244    79.2%28    229    176    76.9%29    191    150    78.5%30    335    260    77.6%
I'm one of the 27ers. :)
I'm a 27er also. :thumbup: Had 203 pts this week. Can't remember ever being over 200 before.
Yeah, I hit 210. I need to get my dead money not so dead. LOL
 
Iggy, Here's a database query request for ya. Top 10, or 50, or 250 teams based on cumulative points scored weeks 1-3? Since no teams are on bye, and the prize money is awarded over a cumulative 3 week stretch where there are no byes, we may be able to grab an early glimpse of some of the favorite teams out there.Thanks!
Here are the top ten:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE106007	659.20	22103146	650.30	21101100	649.25	18104337	648.90	22101714	639.40	21106211	638.45	28100286	638.30	20108078	637.90	19100103	636.95	18106846	635.85	20
I'm only 560.70 :( -QG
 
Iggy, Here's a database query request for ya. Top 10, or 50, or 250 teams based on cumulative points scored weeks 1-3? Since no teams are on bye, and the prize money is awarded over a cumulative 3 week stretch where there are no byes, we may be able to grab an early glimpse of some of the favorite teams out there.Thanks!
Here are the top ten:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE106007	659.20	22103146	650.30	21101100	649.25	18104337	648.90	22101714	639.40	21106211	638.45	28100286	638.30	20108078	637.90	19100103	636.95	18106846	635.85	20
Doesn't it seem like scoring has been high this year? I figured I'd look at the top ten teams from the first three weeks of 2011 to compare. Here they are:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE108488	688.05	20103802	682.15	24104368	679.15	25105898	675.25	20101207	672.75	20107275	671.00	20106719	667.75	18108423	664.35	21102682	663.35	18102996	663.05	19
:shrug:Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
 
Doesn't it seem like scoring has been high this year? I figured I'd look at the top ten teams from the first three weeks of 2011 to compare. Here they are:

Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE108488	688.05	20103802	682.15	24104368	679.15	25105898	675.25	20101207	672.75	20107275	671.00	20106719	667.75	18108423	664.35	21102682	663.35	18102996	663.05	19
:shrug:Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
This also highlights that small-roster scoring is biased towards the first three games of the season. After that you start hitting bye weeks, and by the time the bye weeks are over, some percentage of the early studs are injured or benched, and some of those cheap players will be starting and producing. The final top 10 from last year didn't look anything like this in terms of roster size.
 
Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
By contrast, the top ten teams from last year's final 250 had the following cumulative scoring rank after the first three weeks:
Code:
ENTRY	RANK103801	6917105776	1028110241	5642109160	2720107530	132103768	7110109679	154105571	4903104781	1450104358	2362
So I wouldn't put too much stock into what teams have done these first three weeks. The guy who's going to win the $20k this year is probably on no one's radar right now.
 
Doesn't it seem like scoring has been high this year? I figured I'd look at the top ten teams from the first three weeks of 2011 to compare. Here they are:

ENTRY TOTAL SIZE108488 688.05 20103802 682.15 24104368 679.15 25105898 675.25 20101207 672.75 20107275 671.00 20106719 667.75 18108423 664.35 21102682 663.35 18102996 663.05 19 :shrug: Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
This also highlights that small-roster scoring is biased towards the first three games of the season. After that you start hitting bye weeks, and by the time the bye weeks are over, some percentage of the early studs are injured or benched, and some of those cheap players will be starting and producing. The final top 10 from last year didn't look anything like this in terms of roster size.
It didn't? I thought it did. I could be wrong though.

ETA: I went back to look, the top 10 looked like:

18, 27, 18, 18, 18, 28, 18, 28, 30, 24

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Iggy, Here's a database query request for ya. Top 10, or 50, or 250 teams based on cumulative points scored weeks 1-3? Since no teams are on bye, and the prize money is awarded over a cumulative 3 week stretch where there are no byes, we may be able to grab an early glimpse of some of the favorite teams out there.Thanks!
Here are the top ten:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE106007	659.20	22103146	650.30	21101100	649.25	18104337	648.90	22101714	639.40	21106211	638.45	28100286	638.30	20108078	637.90	19100103	636.95	18106846	635.85	20
Doesn't it seem like scoring has been high this year? I figured I'd look at the top ten teams from the first three weeks of 2011 to compare. Here they are:
Code:
ENTRY	TOTAL	SIZE108488	688.05	20103802	682.15	24104368	679.15	25105898	675.25	20101207	672.75	20107275	671.00	20106719	667.75	18108423	664.35	21102682	663.35	18102996	663.05	19
:shrug:Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
Scoring is higher but more spread out. We had several monster individual games, especially at QB early last year. The top scores are usually driven by a couple of big performances.
 
Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
The guy who's going to win the $20k this year is probably on no one's radar right now.
WHAT? :jawdrop: After the 223 I tacked to the board last week, I should be on your radars by now!
 
havent read through the whole thread so forgive me if this has already been covered....but who was the most picked player at the beginning....?

who is the most picked player still alive now...?

when I first looked at the players I thought it would be Benson...

 
havent read through the whole thread so forgive me if this has already been covered....but who was the most picked player at the beginning....?who is the most picked player still alive now...?when I first looked at the players I thought it would be Benson...
It is Benson - 51% of the Rosters..
 
Here are the top 20 players by survival rate of their owners:

Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%Tony Gonzalez                 	701	786	89.2%Martellus Bennett             	1102	1242	88.7%Armon Binns                   	46	54	85.2%Danny Amendola                	2278	2701	84.3%Heath Miller                  	502	606	82.8%Lawrence Tynes                	1084	1314	82.5%Tennessee Titans              	136	166	81.9%Vernon Davis                  	888	1086	81.8%Ben Roethlisberger            	262	322	81.4%A.J. Green                    	1031	1271	81.1%Mike Wallace                  	1318	1629	80.9%Cecil Shorts                  	4	5	80.0%Washington Redskins           	592	742	79.8%Jason Hanson                  	1759	2219	79.3%Leonard Hankerson             	286	361	79.2%Percy Harvin                  	1348	1703	79.2%C.J. Spiller                  	368	469	78.5%Kyle Rudolph                  	1071	1368	78.3%Ray Rice                      	1895	2421	78.3%
 
In looking at the correlation b/w roster size and scores, given that there is such a massive number of small rosters, perhaps it would be more relevant to look at say the top, 90%ile, 80%ile...etc scores by size?

-QG

 
havent read through the whole thread so forgive me if this has already been covered....but who was the most picked player at the beginning....?who is the most picked player still alive now...?when I first looked at the players I thought it would be Benson...
It is Benson - 51% of the Rosters..
That's what he started at.He's currently on 59.3% of rosters that are still alive (5,335/9,000).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here's the sobering reality part: None of these ten teams made it to the final 250 last year. So I wouldn't look at this year's top ten as a list of favorites. You have to get there, and as we've said before, the characteristics that may make you more likely to put up huge weekly point totals may also make you less likely to survive to the finals.
By contrast, the top ten teams from last year's final 250 had the following cumulative scoring rank after the first three weeks:
Code:
ENTRY	RANK103801	6917105776	1028110241	5642109160	2720107530	132103768	7110109679	154105571	4903104781	1450104358	2362
So I wouldn't put too much stock into what teams have done these first three weeks. The guy who's going to win the $20k this year is probably on no one's radar right now.
I'm on no one's radar right now. :D
 
What's sad is that I'm reasonably sure I've just had the best 3 week run I've ever had in this contest and I'm not remotely close to sniffing the top 10 during that stretch.

Ignoratio, can you run a query of the bottom 20 players in terms of survival rate? I guess there should be some sort of cost-component to it in order for it to be meaningful -- say $20 or more. Just curious to see what "studs" have been failures.

 
Here are the top 20 players by survival rate of their owners:

Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%Tony Gonzalez                 	701	786	89.2%Martellus Bennett             	1102	1242	88.7%Armon Binns                   	46	54	85.2%Danny Amendola                	2278	2701	84.3%Heath Miller                  	502	606	82.8%Lawrence Tynes                	1084	1314	82.5%Tennessee Titans              	136	166	81.9%Vernon Davis                  	888	1086	81.8%Ben Roethlisberger            	262	322	81.4%A.J. Green                    	1031	1271	81.1%Mike Wallace                  	1318	1629	80.9%Cecil Shorts                  	4	5	80.0%Washington Redskins           	592	742	79.8%Jason Hanson                  	1759	2219	79.3%Leonard Hankerson             	286	361	79.2%Percy Harvin                  	1348	1703	79.2%C.J. Spiller                  	368	469	78.5%Kyle Rudolph                  	1071	1368	78.3%Ray Rice                      	1895	2421	78.3%
Rut Roh....I only have one guy two guyson that list....the last one (Ray Rice) and Amendola.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
What's sad is that I'm reasonably sure I've just had the best 3 week run I've ever had in this contest and I'm not remotely close to sniffing the top 10 during that stretch.Ignoratio, can you run a query of the bottom 20 players in terms of survival rate? I guess there should be some sort of cost-component to it in order for it to be meaningful -- say $20 or more. Just curious to see what "studs" have been failures.
$20+ players:
Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%Jason Witten                  	20	45	44.4%Demaryius Thomas              	98	205	47.8%Andre Johnson                 	224	454	49.3%Greg Jennings                 	377	722	52.2%Shonn Greene                  	63	120	52.5%Matt Forte                    	412	777	53.0%Chris Johnson                 	868	1636	53.1%Ryan Mathews                  	43	81	53.1%Aaron Hernandez               	792	1481	53.5%Ahmad Bradshaw                	210	387	54.3%Tony Romo                     	259	466	55.6%Rob Gronkowski                	489	871	56.1%Cam Newton                    	244	430	56.7%Tom Brady                     	691	1186	58.3%Antonio Gates                 	1082	1852	58.4%Miles Austin                  	76	129	58.9%Michael Vick                  	198	335	59.1%Aaron Rodgers                 	1524	2559	59.6%Trent Richardson              	68	114	59.6%Steve Smith                   	210	352	59.7%
$10-19 players:
Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%James Starks                  	11	30	36.7%Roy Helu                      	68	145	46.9%Robert Meachem                	101	193	52.3%Chris Wells                   	99	183	54.1%Marques Colston               	349	643	54.3%Jeremy Maclin                 	428	778	55.0%Anquan Boldin                 	225	406	55.4%Jacob Tamme                   	685	1224	56.0%Randy Moss                    	458	814	56.3%Darrius Heyward-Bey           	151	267	56.6%Vincent Jackson               	169	298	56.7%Dez Bryant                    	924	1621	57.0%Josh Freeman                  	139	243	57.2%Jonathan Stewart              	111	194	57.2%Ronnie Hillman                	150	260	57.7%Jermichael Finley             	431	745	57.9%Sidney Rice                   	120	203	59.1%Toby Gerhart                  	155	262	59.2%Isaac Redman                  	96	162	59.3%Denarius Moore                	73	123	59.3%
 
What's sad is that I'm reasonably sure I've just had the best 3 week run I've ever had in this contest and I'm not remotely close to sniffing the top 10 during that stretch.Ignoratio, can you run a query of the bottom 20 players in terms of survival rate? I guess there should be some sort of cost-component to it in order for it to be meaningful -- say $20 or more. Just curious to see what "studs" have been failures.
$20+ players:
Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%Jason Witten                  	20	45	44.4%Demaryius Thomas              	98	205	47.8%Andre Johnson                 	224	454	49.3%Greg Jennings                 	377	722	52.2%Shonn Greene                  	63	120	52.5%Matt Forte                    	412	777	53.0%Chris Johnson                 	868	1636	53.1%Ryan Mathews                  	43	81	53.1%Aaron Hernandez               	792	1481	53.5%Ahmad Bradshaw                	210	387	54.3%Tony Romo                     	259	466	55.6%Rob Gronkowski                	489	871	56.1%Cam Newton                    	244	430	56.7%Tom Brady                     	691	1186	58.3%Antonio Gates                 	1082	1852	58.4%Miles Austin                  	76	129	58.9%Michael Vick                  	198	335	59.1%Aaron Rodgers                 	1524	2559	59.6%Trent Richardson              	68	114	59.6%Steve Smith                   	210	352	59.7%
$10-19 players:
Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%James Starks                  	11	30	36.7%Roy Helu                      	68	145	46.9%Robert Meachem                	101	193	52.3%Chris Wells                   	99	183	54.1%Marques Colston               	349	643	54.3%Jeremy Maclin                 	428	778	55.0%Anquan Boldin                 	225	406	55.4%Jacob Tamme                   	685	1224	56.0%Randy Moss                    	458	814	56.3%Darrius Heyward-Bey           	151	267	56.6%Vincent Jackson               	169	298	56.7%Dez Bryant                    	924	1621	57.0%Josh Freeman                  	139	243	57.2%Jonathan Stewart              	111	194	57.2%Ronnie Hillman                	150	260	57.7%Jermichael Finley             	431	745	57.9%Sidney Rice                   	120	203	59.1%Toby Gerhart                  	155	262	59.2%Isaac Redman                  	96	162	59.3%Denarius Moore                	73	123	59.3%
That makes me feel better....not one guy on either of those lists are on my team.
 
I have 4 players on the top survival list, 2 on the $20 lowest survival list, and 0 on the $10-$19 lowest survival list.

I have no idea what any of that means though. Probably nothing to be honest, at least at this point in the season.

 
I have 4 players on the top survival list, 2 on the $20 lowest survival list, and 0 on the $10-$19 lowest survival list.I have no idea what any of that means though. Probably nothing to be honest, at least at this point in the season.
Right, this info is more explanatory than predictive. Teams that have a bunch of players on the top list are more likely to still be alive than teams that have a bunch of players on the bottom two lists. But it doesn't necessarily mean they're more likely to survive in the future.
 
That makes me feel better....not one guy on either of those lists are on my team.
You got that backwards IMO. You want guys on those lists. You want to be the guy with the more unique players. My team, for example, has FJax, Forte and DMC as my big 3 RBs. With them either being injured or under-performing I want the other teams who have them to be eliminated so that when they start performing/playing I'll have a unique team.
 
Here are the top 20 players by survival rate of their owners:

Code:
PLAYER                        	ALIVE	ALL	SURV%Tony Gonzalez                 	701	786	89.2%Martellus Bennett             	1102	1242	88.7%Armon Binns                   	46	54	85.2%Danny Amendola                	2278	2701	84.3%Heath Miller                  	502	606	82.8%Lawrence Tynes                	1084	1314	82.5%Tennessee Titans              	136	166	81.9%Vernon Davis                  	888	1086	81.8%Ben Roethlisberger            	262	322	81.4%A.J. Green                    	1031	1271	81.1%Mike Wallace                  	1318	1629	80.9%Cecil Shorts                  	4	5	80.0%Washington Redskins           	592	742	79.8%Jason Hanson                  	1759	2219	79.3%Leonard Hankerson             	286	361	79.2%Percy Harvin                  	1348	1703	79.2%C.J. Spiller                  	368	469	78.5%Kyle Rudolph                  	1071	1368	78.3%Ray Rice                      	1895	2421	78.3%
Is it good or bad that I don't have any of those guys?
 
'BassNBrew said:
Nice start to the week for us Flacco/Smith owners.
Shoot, I figure Greg Little's double-digit points are a bigger deal for his owners (like me) than Flacco and Smith having big days. Granted it's just 11.7, but from Little that's monsterous. And it only took him 10 targets to get there. If the rest of my team performs at a comparable level vs. their "norm" I'll score 300 points.Did I say I was bitter?
 
Dear Antonio Gates,

Please show signs of life this week because you will be playing no matter what on my team next week. And you better not get $%&@#NG hurt

 
29 players on my team and only 3 have played each week (Harvin, Wallace and Rudolph). Still have 12 players who havent even made it once -- Wilson, Hunter, Vereen, Green, Dwyer, Ronnie Brown, Simpson (first game this week), Kendall Wright although he has done fairly well, Henderson, Royal, Dwayne Allen (although he showed some signs of life last game) and the Dolphins. I guess so far I have a lot of wasted picks although I still have confidence in Hunter (Gore will probably get banged up sometime), Vereen, Simpson, Kendall Wright and Dwayne Allen.

On to week 4 and hoping for the best. So far Ive made it comfortably in each week but dont really love my RB core.

 
Scott Chandler was definitely the best $6 I spent.

I started out with a TE group of Rudolph, Olsen, Chandler and Bennett but figured that was too risky at the TE spot. Sometimes you can out think yourself a bit.

 
Just a heads up all, I will not be running the current cutoff after the 8 o'clock games complete.

I need to fix some incorrect data and correctly adjust the teams that have been eliminated in my DB before allowing that to run again.

I will try to get those numbers identified and adjusted this week so we can get back to the current cut line moving forward.

 
I love Brees/Colston today. And Davone Bess is being overshadowed by Hartline, but if all he does is get me through this week, the $$$ was worth it

 
'Organized Chaos said:
Just a heads up all, I will not be running the current cutoff after the 8 o'clock games complete.I need to fix some incorrect data and correctly adjust the teams that have been eliminated in my DB before allowing that to run again.I will try to get those numbers identified and adjusted this week so we can get back to the current cut line moving forward.
my team is missing demarius thomas 101197
 
Going to survive J. Jones and C. Johnson games....I never would have thought there would be a non bye week where I wouldn't use at least one of them. Thank goodness for Brees. He is solid every week....today he was awesome.

 

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