OK.
I don't know what the QB market will be like this winter, I was just looking over the list of current QB contracts.
http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/
He's not a franchise quarterback. He was thought to be at one time. He has proven through a six year body of work he is not.
I looked at that list and said, "OK, he's not on his first contract or elite or the guy a team will build their team around.
So if he's not in that top 22-24, then what is he worth? I guess probably the same amount as other journeymen who have failed on multiple teams."
Interestingly, OTC themselves seem to have weighed in on this a couple of weeks ago:
http://overthecap.com/2016-nfl-free-agency-quarterbacks-overview/
Their take, for what it's worth (I pulled the last paragraphs only, click through to read in full):
Sam Bradford, Eagles
Because of his draft pedigree the earning potential for Bradford is high, but teams are going to need to see much more from him before handing over the kind of money top quarterbacks receive. Nick Foles recently signed a two year $12 million contract which is probably the floor for Bradford, provided he maintains his job as a starter and doesn’t get injured. His rookie contract paid $13 million a season and essentially extending him for a year or two between $13 and 14 million seems like a reasonable deal for both parties. While they would not allow him to reach free agency until he is 31, as a quarterback he could conceivably sign two contracts after that. He has to avoid being benched or injured to get the two year deal. If any of those two occurs I believe his value would drop significantly.
Predicted Value: 2 years, $26-$28 million.
Ryan Fittzpatrick, Jets
Fitzpatrick should land a job with any team in the NFL that has questions at the position and no chance to draft or trade for another player. He could also be the highest paid backup for a team like Dallas, but he seems to want a spot where he can compete as a starter. The Jets would seem to be the team most likely to retain him, but one would expect them to explore the market before making a two year commitment to Fitzpatrick. If not the Jets expect Fitzpatrick to get a close look by some of the teams rumored to be trading their starter to be a one or two year stopgap starter.
Predicted Value: 2 Years, $10-11.5 million
Call it supply and demand, call it perception, call it the value of (relative) youth, whatever, but they seem to think that Bradford will get more than 2x as much as Fitz.
If anything, I think Bradford's contract value will be higher than that range ... albeit jam-packed with incentives and out clauses. Fitz's numbers look a little low in a world where Josh freaking McCown got that much, but who knows?
And for the record, I want no part of Bradford at $14-15M per. Absolutely no part.
As much as it pains me to say, I'd rather sign RG3 and Kaep for half that much combined and let them fight a steel cage match to be next year's starter.