Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (3 Viewers)

[3C's]

Didn't you vote for Obama?

I am not a Cruz fan per se but as opposed to Trump- it is an easy decision for me.

You sound like Trump. "Yeah, but he did it too!"

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

He also had posts with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission. 

He's also insane and dogmatic. 

 

[Chadstroma]

No, he isn't at all.  Cruz is the guy that wants Muslim spying programs and the U.S. to return to 1875 Little House on the Prairie ####.  He has a resume similar to what Obama had but has a fraction of the charisma, and he's cornered the market on creepy.  He's unlikable, can't get along with anyone at all, and reeks of evangelical fascism.  He's awful, in every conceivable way.  At least we know Trump is adept at talent evaluation, his cabinet would be strong.  Cruz would have a bunch of people on staff that hates him. 

Say what you want about Obama but I can tell you with personal experience, his people are tremendously loyal.  Obama is fairly likeable, GW too.  Clinton is a God to his followers, as is Reagan and GHWB is as respected as anyone ever in government.  Cruz is a menace, he's not good for anything or anyone.

I'll listen to Trump supporters, but if you are supporting Cruz you have no vision or concept of the 21st century.  If I want a picture of Ted Cruz's world I'll watch Deadwood or Django Unchained, he's a pig and a dangerous person and I have absolutely no respect for him. 

I am not a huge fan. For me- I would take Cruz slightly over Hillary and easily over Trump or Sanders. I think the Republic can survive Cruz or Hillary and I am convinced that it would not survive Trump or Sanders.

The one guy still in the race who would actually make a good President has the least amount of support. With the choices we have now, I am already looking towards 2020. It is all downright depressing.

 

[Skoo]

Cruz is definitely more scary when it comes to policy - this is afterall the guy that shutdown the government because the GOP wanted to throw a temper tantrum that Obama wouldn't repeal his landmark piece of legislation as part of the budget. His views are very extreme and would most likely be very damaging to the economy, not to mention he's stuck in the middle ages when it comes to social issues.

Trump is more scary in a "will he get his feelings hurt by a foreign leader and decide to start WW3?" kind of way.

 

[sho nuff]

Cruz is definitely more scary when it comes to policy - this is afterall the guy that shutdown the government because the GOP wanted to throw a temper tantrum that Obama wouldn't repeal his landmark piece of legislation as part of the budget. His views are very extreme and would most likely be very damaging to the economy, not to mention he's stuck in the middle ages when it comes to social issues.

Trump is more scary in a "will he get his feelings hurt by a foreign leader and decide to start WW3?" kind of way.

Trump is more scary in the piss off every foreign leader.

I think Cruz is as likely to start wars...or more likely to than Trump.

 

[dparker713]

He's also insane and dogmatic. 

Sure, but that doesn't show up on a resume.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Has the Cruz college poker game story been told in here yet?

Go on.....

 

[bigbottom]

Go on.....

As I understand it, he lost a couple grand, had to borrow the money from his aunt to make good and then spent two years working to pay her back the money. 

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Sure, but that doesn't show up on a resume.

I put it under "Skills".

 

[Anarchy99]

It's starting to look more and more  that no Rebulican will get a majority of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. Once that happens, pretty much anything goes.

Who wins the nomination at the convention? Remember, ANYONE can come out of this. It does not have to be one of the candidates currently campaigning. It could end up being Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or anyone else that can get a majority of the votes. 

I've read where Ryan is possibly the favorite at this point. That would certainly be a curveball. 

 

[dparker713]

As I understand it, he lost a couple grand, had to borrow the money from his aunt to make good and then spent two years working to pay her back the money. 

Is this supposed to be a damning story?  Cause yeah, bad at poker and control issues to be down that much when you can't afford it.  But if he paid it back, its not exactly all that bad.

 

[bigbottom]

Is this supposed to be a damning story?  Cause yeah, bad at poker and control issues to be down that much when you can't afford it.  But if he paid it back, its not exactly all that bad.

Not really sure. Someone mentioned the poker story a while back, I went looking for it and that is what I found. Seems like a pretty positive story actually. Perhaps there's more to it. 

 

[roadkill1292]

I put it under "Skills".

You're on fire today.

 

[timschochet]

Cruz' escuse about "New York Values"- "I was only talking about liberals"- is really weak. Also, visiting a matzoh factory? Really? 

 

[Chadstroma]

It's starting to look more and more  that no Rebulican will get a majority of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. Once that happens, pretty much anything goes.

Who wins the nomination at the convention? Remember, ANYONE can come out of this. It does not have to be one of the candidates currently campaigning. It could end up being Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or anyone else that can get a majority of the votes. 

I've read where Ryan is possibly the favorite at this point. That would certainly be a curveball. 

Ryan was the only one that the GOP could come up with that could unify the party enough to get the Speaker position done without everyone being pissed. Why not have him come in and save the Presidential nomination?

He would be my first choice.

 

[timschochet]

Just heard some speculation that if not Ryan, Scott Walker might emerge. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Go on.....

The story told on Bill Simmons was that he was down like a thousand, so he went and ratted on the game to the RA. The RA then broke up the game, forced everyone to give whatever money to its original owner and banned them from playing again. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think Cruz is as likely to start wars...or more likely to than Trump.

The guy is from Texas, that's all they do is start/continue wars.

 

[Chadstroma]

Just heard some speculation that if not Ryan, Scott Walker might emerge. 

Delegates have to vote the way they are suppose to the first ballot- after that then they are free to do as they want. I have to believe that the majority of them will not want anything to do with Trump. I can't see a brokered convention where Trump comes out the winner.

From there... who the heck knows. You can pretty much throw out any somewhat known GOP candidate that is somewhat liked and it is possible. Candidates that haven't even flirted with the Presidency but are seen as rising or future stars like Nikki Haley or the Senator from SC Tim Scott. There is a whole slew of Presidential hopefuls that could potentially swing it like Kasich, Bush, Rubio or Walker. You could end up looking at Mitt as the last nominee and prob more liked now that he hasn't ran. I think the favorite could very well be Ryan though as people look to him to save the party from itself like they did for Speaker. But really- it is wide open.

 

[The Commish]

Wait....is Nikki Haley really a "future/rising star" in the GOP?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

One of the Fox News ladies should throw their hat in the ring.

 

[McGarnicle]

Cruz' escuse about "New York Values"- "I was only talking about liberals"- is really weak. Also, visiting a matzoh factory? Really? 

The line at the falafel place was out the door.

 

[sho nuff]

Just heard some speculation that if not Ryan, Scott Walker might emerge. 

Why?

Other than the Koch's love him...he is a turd.

 

[whoknew]

Delegates have to vote the way they are suppose to the first ballot- after that then they are free to do as they want. I have to believe that the majority of them will not want anything to do with Trump. I can't see a brokered convention where Trump comes out the winner.

From there... who the heck knows. You can pretty much throw out any somewhat known GOP candidate that is somewhat liked and it is possible. Candidates that haven't even flirted with the Presidency but are seen as rising or future stars like Nikki Haley or the Senator from SC Tim Scott. There is a whole slew of Presidential hopefuls that could potentially swing it like Kasich, Bush, Rubio or Walker. You could end up looking at Mitt as the last nominee and prob more liked now that he hasn't ran. I think the favorite could very well be Ryan though as people look to him to save the party from itself like they did for Speaker. But really- it is wide open.

I will try to find it but there were multiple articles written a couple of days ago (maybe 538 and Chris Cilizza from the Washington Post) that Cruz has been very active getting friendly delegates to be appointed as the actual delegates. Meanwhile, Trump hasn't really done anything. 

As a result, after the first ballot, its likely that Cruz will win the nomination. One thing they pointed out was that the actual delegates aren't the "party insiders" that detest Cruz (because they have actually met him). They are ground level true believers. 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Delegates have to vote the way they are suppose to the first ballot- after that then they are free to do as they want.

Not exactly. It's pretty much state by state and most of the bound delegates have to vote for their candidate in the first round. But there are many states that have the delegates bound through two rounds or more of voting. Some delegates are unbound if their candidate drops out before the convention - but not if the candidate merely "suspends" his campaign. 

Just like with caucuses and the electoral college, the more you look at it the bigger cluster you learn that it really is.

 

[bigbottom]

The story told on Bill Simmons was that he was down like a thousand, so he went and ratted on the game to the RA. The RA then broke up the game, forced everyone to give whatever money to its original owner and banned them from playing again. 

Well, the story I related up above is cited here:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/08/19/ted-cruz-at-princeton-creepy-sometimes-well-liked-and-exactly-the-same.html

But the explanation comes from his spokesperson, so who knows.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I said earlier that I thought Paul Ryan was the only person who could unite the GOP but doubted he would enter the fray in what looks to be a terrible year for Republicans.

Looks like I was wrong.

Yeah, if that's not a campaign ad, WTF is it?

I still think it almost HAS TO go to someone running. Both Trump and Cruz delegates are comprising the rules committee for the convention (sorry Kasich) so it will be interestig to see what they come up with. But I would freaking love to see it flip to someone not even running. 

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Will Trump and Cruz each choose VP nominees before the convention?  How has that process worked in past contested conventions?

 

[Riversco]

I'm not Cruz fan.  But he graduated Princeton with honors, Harvard Law with honors and was an editor of the Law Review, clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist, served as Solicitor General for Texas and has been elected to Congress.  That's a pretty impressive resume.

His resume doesn't matter.   His views also don't matter.  You need to be cuter than your opponent in the general election.  That's it.  Because when it comes time to vote, most voters are only thinking "This is all bull #### so which person would I rather stare at in news photos for the next 4 years?"  If they are BOTH ugly (see Bush vs Dukakis 1992) then you just get a one termer when a better looking person comes along next time.

 

[Riversco]

Will Trump and Cruz each choose VP nominees before the convention?  How has that process worked in past contested conventions?

There was a GOP convention nomination fight in 1952 between Eisenhower and Robert Taft.  After Eisenhower won, this is how it went down:

https://partners.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/520712convention-gop-ra.html

After his own nomination had been formally proclaimed at 1:32 P.M., General Eisenhower returned from his brief visit with Senator Taft, went into conference with his principal political advisers and told them that his own choice for Vice President was Senator Nixon.

Since it is customary for a convention to honor the nominee's choice for running mate, there was no dissent in the convention to Senator Nixon's nomination.

That sounds like a sensible way to do it, since it shows you trust your nominee's judgement.  On the other hand, if Trump offered to allow the convention to select his running mate, it might prove his willingness to work with others and negotiate, and that could win him enough support in Cleveland to win the nomination.

 

[Riversco]

I can't believe how terrible the forum software is.  Its a struggle just to quote something correctly.  I just give up.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

His resume doesn't matter.   His views also don't matter.  You need to be cuter than your opponent in the general election.  That's it.  Because when it comes time to vote, most voters are only thinking "This is all bull #### so which person would I rather stare at in news photos for the next 4 years?"  If they are BOTH ugly (see Bush vs Dukakis 1992) then you just get a one termer when a better looking person comes along next time.

You're just trying to make us anti-Hillary folks feel better aren't you?

 

[Ilov80s]

I will try to find it but there were multiple articles written a couple of days ago (maybe 538 and Chris Cilizza from the Washington Post) that Cruz has been very active getting friendly delegates to be appointed as the actual delegates. Meanwhile, Trump hasn't really done anything. 

As a result, after the first ballot, its likely that Cruz will win the nomination. One thing they pointed out was that the actual delegates aren't the "party insiders" that detest Cruz (because they have actually met him). They are ground level true believers. 

Right, like I said here awhile ago, Trump is running an all time bad campaign. He's had so many chances to finish this thing off against a piss poor field and he's just done everything wrong.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Florida's delegate rules could boost Trump at convention.

Under the state's GOP rules, all of the 99 delegates Trump received when he won Florida's March 15 primary must vote for him through the first three nominating ballots at a contested convention.

The entire article is a good read on the various state rules for their delegates. 

18 states don't bind their delegates at all. 

 

[[scooter]]

Will Trump and Cruz each choose VP nominees before the convention?  How has that process worked in past contested conventions?

Before the 1976 convention, Gerald Ford was 9 delegates short of a majority. Ronald Reagan tried to steal the nomination by announcing that he would pick liberal senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania as his running mate, thinking that it would convince some of the moderate Ford supporters to defect. It backfired, and Ford ended up being nominated on the first ballot.

 

[Psychopav]

I like Paul Ryan from a policy perspective and I like what he's been able to get accomplished as Speaker.

That said, Hillary would kill him in the debates. He was terrible in 2012, just terrible.

 

[RCon]

"In a stunning development at the Republican convention, the GOP has nominated Gary Johnson."

 

[cstu]

Right, like I said here awhile ago, Trump is running an all time bad campaign. He's had so many chances to finish this thing off against a piss poor field and he's just done everything wrong.

He's not running a campaign but a very long commercial.

 

[cstu]

This chart shows just how hard it’s going to be for a Republican to win the White House in 2016

Do a bit of simple math (the only kind I can do!) and you realize two important things:

1. The Democratic nominee this fall will, if past is prologue, start with a 140-electoral vote lead over the Republican nominee.

2. The Democratic nominee needs to win only 28 additional electoral votes to get to 270 and be elected president.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Good article here on the GOP convention and how the RNC is pretty much tone deaf concerning the nomination.

“The media has created the perception that the voters choose the nomination. That's the conflict here."  Replied Haugland: “Political parties choose their nominees, not the voters.”
 

 

[Amused to Death]

It's starting to look more and more  that no Rebulican will get a majority of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. Once that happens, pretty much anything goes.

Who wins the nomination at the convention? Remember, ANYONE can come out of this. It does not have to be one of the candidates currently campaigning. It could end up being Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or anyone else that can get a majority of the votes. 

I've read where Ryan is possibly the favorite at this point. That would certainly be a curveball. 

Preibus: the nominee will be somebody currently running.

He then went on to praise John Kasich, refusing to limit it to just Trump or Cruz.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

cheeky bet on Kasich +700 (Bovada)?

 

[Mr.Pack]

Will Trump and Cruz each choose VP nominees before the convention?  How has that process worked in past contested conventions?

I thought I saw Preibus say the VP would also be voted on at the convention in a contested convention.

 

[Riversco]

cheeky bet on Kasich +700 (Bovada)?

Why not.  Kasich is crushing Hillary in general election polls.  Good lottery ticket.

 

[[scooter]]

cheeky bet on Kasich +700 (Bovada)?

Why not.  Kasich is crushing Hillary in general election polls.  Good lottery ticket.

Kasich is beating Hillary by 9 points but losing to Sanders by 11 points. Meanwhile, Clinton and Sanders are virtually tied nationwide.

 

[Riversco]

Kasich is beating Hillary by 9 points but losing to Sanders by 11 points. Meanwhile, Clinton and Sanders are virtually tied nationwide.

Bernie is only the nominee if Hillary is indicted, but Hillary won't be indicted.  So its a simple decision for the GOP, just nominate Kasich.

 

[Riversco]

I think the democrats have a tougher decision.  If they nominate Hillary, she loses in the general election to Kasich.  Is it worth protecting Hillary to get beat pretty handily in the general election?

 

[Trey]

I think the democrats have a tougher decision.  If they nominate Hillary, she loses in the general election to Kasich.  Is it worth protecting Hillary to get beat pretty handily in the general election?

diagree on this one. If the Republicans nominate a guy who won 1 state and a handful of delegates over 2 guys who combined for 80% of all delegates, the #### storm is going to be out of control. 

 

[Riversco]

diagree on this one. If the Republicans nominate a guy who won 1 state and a handful of delegates over 2 guys who combined for 80% of all delegates, the #### storm is going to be out of control. 

Not in this case because there will be plenty of people happier it is not Trump.

 

[Trey]

Not in this case because there will be plenty of people happier it is not Trump.

I think moreso the Cruz people who have been doing an incredible job filling delegate slates. If this thing gets stolen from him at the convention for a Kasich type there's going to be fireworks