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*** Official 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Oscar (1 Viewer)

culdeus said:
25,000 people have stayed on and around in Panama City mandatory evac. areas.
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Um...what?  That’s horrible.  This is down to 932.4 and strengthening. Now I doubt it will strengthen much more as the waters will begin to get shallow but those people should be out of there.

 
Eyewall is fully formed, and last runs show the pressure is steady.  In theory, wind will now increase, alot.  There is no time for a EWRC so until land interaction starts it will continue to intensify.  There's nothing stopping a low Cat 5 landfall now.  

You have to cheer for a east push and a big one.  The worry is that the ridge isn't strong enough to push it off a dead center PCB hit, however the NHC and NOAA all still think (And are high confident on this) there is a big turn starting at 11am to the East.  Let's hope they are right and this goes off to a less populated spot.  

If they are wrong and it keeps on at 355 this puts it slightly West of PCB and you are looking at something you don't want to think about.   Plus, you start worrying about even people as far away as Destin getting it super bad on a 355 vector to the shore.

 
Just got the home dry from Florence, but the roof hasn't been repaired and still waiting for an adjustor.  Calling for 4-5 inches of rain.  Good thing is the restoration company has picked up the fans and dehumidifiers so I ahead of the game there.

 
pantherclub said:
If you are in spot where the storm surge might get you.  Even if its a remote chance then GTFO asap.  If however you have a generator, tarps, food, water etc and feel good about your roof I can see the argument for staying.  But that is still a slim one.  
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Hey man, what happened with your place in NC at the beach? May have missed it.

 
sho nuff said:
Glad our fall break is a weak later this year as we are planned to head to the gulf coast next week.  I know others evacuating today whose fall break is this week.

Hoping the area isn't hit too bad...will change plans if needed and already planning on taking extra supplies down to donate if we still head down Sunday...and finding a place to volunteer a day or two during the trip.

Also hopeful this hurricane disperses that red tide crap up...
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Well...man things have changed since this post just yesterday.

Hope everyone near this thing stays safe...we are staying out of the way and changing up.  Will be donating what we can for relief efforts and those working cleanup but no need for some yahoos from TN to be down there right after this.

Heartbreaking as I love that area...and know how much it depends on tourism.  Those beaches will change big time for a bit.

 
culdeus said:
Eyewall is fully formed, and last runs show the pressure is steady.  In theory, wind will now increase, alot.  There is no time for a EWRC so until land interaction starts it will continue to intensify.  There's nothing stopping a low Cat 5 landfall now.  

You have to cheer for a east push and a big one.  The worry is that the ridge isn't strong enough to push it off a dead center PCB hit, however the NHC and NOAA all still think (And are high confident on this) there is a big turn starting at 11am to the East.  Let's hope they are right and this goes off to a less populated spot.  

If they are wrong and it keeps on at 355 this puts it slightly West of PCB and you are looking at something you don't want to think about.   Plus, you start worrying about even people as far away as Destin getting it super bad on a 355 vector to the shore.
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My folks live in Destin just North of Hwy 98 but less than 1 mile from the beach.  They are old and were basically unable to leave (they are stubborn and stupid too).  So they are staying put.  In terms of  preparedness - I'd put them on the level of "might have spare batteries somewhere, but not sure where" level.  I'm very worried.  Where do you get your information from as I need to stay on top to figure out how I might need to get there from Idaho in the next couple of days.

 
siffoin said:
My folks live in Destin just North of Hwy 98 but less than 1 mile from the beach.  They are old and were basically unable to leave (they are stubborn and stupid too).  So they are staying put.  In terms of  preparedness - I'd put them on the level of "might have spare batteries somewhere, but not sure where" level.  I'm very worried.  Where do you get your information from as I need to stay on top to figure out how I might need to get there from Idaho in the next couple of days.
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Just north of Destin may be ok.  A mile off the beach means no storm surge will affect them and the storm is probably hitting 50 miles east.  It's still going to be very scary for them but at least they are spared the brunt of the storm.

 
siffoin said:
My folks live in Destin just North of Hwy 98 but less than 1 mile from the beach.  They are old and were basically unable to leave (they are stubborn and stupid too).  So they are staying put.  In terms of  preparedness - I'd put them on the level of "might have spare batteries somewhere, but not sure where" level.  I'm very worried.  Where do you get your information from as I need to stay on top to figure out how I might need to get there from Idaho in the next couple of days.
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If you are on Facebook Mike’s weather page is good. Also rob nucatola. He’s a news meteorologist who isn’t full of hype and drama. 

As long as trees don’t fall on them I believe they will be ok during the storm. After the storm you can decide if you need to come down. Praying for them!

 
926 extrapolated surface pressure.  Wow.  A new HH plane just took off and will get solid readings within an hour or so.  Andrew was 922.  

 
siffoin said:
My folks live in Destin just North of Hwy 98 but less than 1 mile from the beach.  They are old and were basically unable to leave (they are stubborn and stupid too).  So they are staying put.  In terms of  preparedness - I'd put them on the level of "might have spare batteries somewhere, but not sure where" level.  I'm very worried.  Where do you get your information from as I need to stay on top to figure out how I might need to get there from Idaho in the next couple of days.
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Best source of information is https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/  

You can pick up a lot of info off reddit and wunderground, but you can watch the live feeds of the planes and sats from TT.  Most of the time stuff you see on TT is reported 2-3 hours later by the news.  They can't keep up.

 
jiffy said:
Idiots.

And these will be ones that are complaining like crazy if they need rescued or even worse, have someone in their family lose their lives.
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I find their inevitable interviews to be the most disturbing. “We didn’t think it would be that bad even though every single person in the universe said it would be.  So glad we were rescued and put so many others at risk.”

Turrible

 
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BOOOOOOO, the hunter is going around the backside of the storm first.  I demand to be entertained.  I was hoping for a ####### lawn dart right in thru the NW corner.

 
Worm said:
Hey man, what happened with your place in NC at the beach? May have missed it.
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just some minor damage on the roof which lead to some leakage in the drywall and floors ruined.  No biggie and it could have been a lot worse for me.  Crazy enough of all the properties I own in the area my personal house was the only one that got damage.  My wifes business came through unscathed as well.  Very fortunate.  thanks for asking

 
My friends are TERRIFIED that they will lose their homes along 30A, which seems to be in the path of a direct hit. One in Grayton Beach, one in Seacrest. 

 
culdeus said:
BOOOOOOO, the hunter is going around the backside of the storm first.  I demand to be entertained.  I was hoping for a ####### lawn dart right in thru the NW corner.
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928.9?

 
Workhorse said:
My friends are TERRIFIED that they will lose their homes along 30A, which seems to be in the path of a direct hit. One in Grayton Beach, one in Seacrest. 
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Looks like its turning pretty hard east.  30A/Grayton shouldn't be getting a direct hit.  They should avoid cat type damage there, at least thats what it look like.  

 
134500 2907N 08559W 7526 01948 9391 +182 +178 229121 135 122 016 00

Official reading on that one.  That's 145mph and they aren't in the NE Quad yet. 

This is a 5 on the next pass.  100%.

 
NE quad blowing up on IR just in time for the plane to get there.  Could be a strong Cat 5.

Port St. Joe is now the updated impact point from NHC.  They are not likely to update this again so I'd consider that locked in.

 
Best hope for this one is that it keeps hooking right and spares Panama City the NE eyewall and the brunt of the storm.  But at this point, the W side of the eyewall is still going to pack a deadly punch as well.  

 
shader said:
Best hope for this one is that it keeps hooking right and spares Panama City the NE eyewall and the brunt of the storm.  But at this point, the W side of the eyewall is still going to pack a deadly punch as well.  
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As far as worst case, port st. joe isn't it.  They PCB may catch an edge of the eyewall, which is completely closed off.  The NE side is absolutely blowing up right now.  

 
culdeus said:
NE quad blowing up on IR just in time for the plane to get there.  Could be a strong Cat 5.

Port St. Joe is now the updated impact point from NHC.  They are not likely to update this again so I'd consider that locked in.
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This close to land, and especially with how the geography of the beach curves, little jogs can make a significant impact.  Port St Joe would be great for PCB.  But the IR seems to have jogged north last few frames.  I'm thinking it's going to hit between there and PCB between Mexico Beach and the AFB.

 
shader said:
This close to land, and especially with how the geography of the beach curves, little jogs can make a significant impact.  Port St Joe would be great for PCB.  But the IR seems to have jogged north last few frames.  I'm thinking it's going to hit between there and PCB between Mexico Beach and the AFB.
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Agree IR looks like a 360 wobble for last few frames.  Still would bet on NHC getting the track right.  They are the best.

 
Seen lots of people heading south to Tampa from the panhandle today.  Lots of U Haul trucks and car caravans around.  Rain bands coming through with light winds.  Now I begin to worry about Nadine.  Ugh.  I’m heading out west next Wednesday so I hope she gets bent out in the Atlantic.

 
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Hunter has bugged out, nobody left to engage.  Not enough to call it a 5 based on that run.  Might get upgraded at landfall.  

 
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