Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

QB - Cam Newton - CAR/7 - $19
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/6 - $12
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/9 - $33
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/5 - $23
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
WR - Julian Edelman - NE/10 - $23
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/9 - $22
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Anthony Miller - CHI/6 - $12
WR - David Moore - SEA/11 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Giorgio Tavecchio - ATL/9 - $5
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3
PK - Zane Gonzalez - ARI/12 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/11 - $5
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/12 - $4

I’d be crazy to say I’m not a little worried with 3 RB’s. But my 4th was Justice Hill and he is a wild card to the point where he may not produce at all anyway so I reinvested the points elsewhere. But the players I do have I really do love. Kelce, Newton, Woods and Kerryon are locks for me. 

TD - The only thing I really look at when selecting D's are the week 14-16 matchups, and the teams they face when the other is on their bye.  Week 11 ARI gets SF, and week 12 TEN gets JAX, so I like those.  ARI has a tough 3 week playoff schedule, and TEN has a great game vs OAK in week 14.

PK - My thoughts exactly!  ARI & CLE kickers should not be 3 bucks, but they are for a reason - because they are not sure locks to keep their jobs.  I want to roster both, so I will be monitoring them through the preseason.  And that Italian kicker who took over for Matt Bryant for 3 weeks last year showed a strong leg and didn't miss.  It's his job now, in a potent offense.

TE - I keep trying to find ways to roster Kelce.  It's the comfort of knowing you will get a usable score each week.  He scored no lower than 12.90 all but week 1, and of course his bye.  If his bye were early enough, I would consider taking just him at TE.  Hopefully Waller picks up where Cook left off, and if AB misses games, Carr's options get thin real fast.

WR - Have you considered switching from Edelman to Diggs?  Same price, and fixes a bye conflict with Dede Westbrook.  I would only do this if you like Diggs as much as Edelman, or very, very close to it.  A word of caution though - Diggs is not a picture of health, and hasn't played 16 games in the last 3 years.  Then again, neither is Edelman.  He is currently nursing a broken thumb, and has only played all 16 games twice in his 10-year career.  In LAR, Cooks seems to get the hype, but Woods got more targets, catches, yards, and TD's last year.  And a healthy Kupp won't eat into his target share.  When all 3 played (8 games) Woods had 65 targets.  When Kupp was out (8 games) Woods had the same 65 targets.  Westbrook and Samuel have been hyped up quite a bit recently, and I love Samuel's price in relation to DJ Moore's.  Miller quietly scored 7 TD's on only 33 catches in his rookie season.  He is now a starter opposite Allen Robinson, so his targets will take a big jump.  Moore is a good flier for $6.

RB - Going that thin at RB, you better feel real confident they can all stay healthy for 16 games.  Do you?  I would do some quick research on KJ's injury history.  He has had his fair share since high school.  He makes Chris Carson look like Ironman, broken leg and all.  Overall, 3 very good choices, but as you said, very scary.  Fun fact - the top 2 finishers in last year's contest had Chris Carson.

QB - I cannot, in good conscience, tell you I like your choices.  But hey, what do I know - I chose Eli Manning last year!  At least Trubisky never has to face the Bears D, right?  Cam gets a nice matchup vs TB when Mitch is on his bye, but Mitch gets a bad matchup vs NO when Cam is out the following week.

Good luck

 

[matuski]

how can i find my team last year?

 

[TheWinz]

Browns and TB both on week 7 make it hard. There's a lot of value there in a weak defense/running team with Arians coaching and of course, the 2019 Superbowl champion Browns. I really don't like having so much money tied up in one week though.

I like alot of week 7 options as well.  7 & 12 seem to be the hardest for me so far.  Shockingly, I don't seem to be selecting alot of week 10 players, even though there are 6 of them.

 

[TheWinz]

how can i find my team last year?

name all your QB's and RB's, and I will get it for you

 

[matuski]

name all your QB's and RB's, and I will get it for you

James Conner was on my team.... I don't remember anything else which is why I am asking.

I thought I could just click 2018 link... but it comes up with week 21 standings and players that were not on my team.

 

[TheWinz]

James Conner was on my team.... I don't remember anything else which is why I am asking.

I thought I could just click 2018 link... but it comes up with week 21 standings and players that were not on my team.

Is this it?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100509.php

 

[matuski]

Is this it?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100509.php

Nice, yes ty.

 

[TheWinz]

Nice, yes ty.

You are welcome, and congrats on the top 200 finish

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Liking this one more but still some tweaking to come I am sure.......

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - SF/4 - $11
QB - Nick Foles - JAX/10 - $8
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/12 - $12
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/12 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/9 - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5

Total value: 250

 

[Elevencents]

TD - The only thing I really look at when selecting D's are the week 14-16 matchups, and the teams they face when the other is on their bye.  Week 11 ARI gets SF, and week 12 TEN gets JAX, so I like those.  ARI has a tough 3 week playoff schedule, and TEN has a great game vs OAK in week 14.

PK - My thoughts exactly!  ARI & CLE kickers should not be 3 bucks, but they are for a reason - because they are not sure locks to keep their jobs.  I want to roster both, so I will be monitoring them through the preseason.  And that Italian kicker who took over for Matt Bryant for 3 weeks last year showed a strong leg and didn't miss.  It's his job now, in a potent offense.

TE - I keep trying to find ways to roster Kelce.  It's the comfort of knowing you will get a usable score each week.  He scored no lower than 12.90 all but week 1, and of course his bye.  If his bye were early enough, I would consider taking just him at TE.  Hopefully Waller picks up where Cook left off, and if AB misses games, Carr's options get thin real fast.

WR - Have you considered switching from Edelman to Diggs?  Same price, and fixes a bye conflict with Dede Westbrook.  I would only do this if you like Diggs as much as Edelman, or very, very close to it.  A word of caution though - Diggs is not a picture of health, and hasn't played 16 games in the last 3 years.  Then again, neither is Edelman.  He is currently nursing a broken thumb, and has only played all 16 games twice in his 10-year career.  In LAR, Cooks seems to get the hype, but Woods got more targets, catches, yards, and TD's last year.  And a healthy Kupp won't eat into his target share.  When all 3 played (8 games) Woods had 65 targets.  When Kupp was out (8 games) Woods had the same 65 targets.  Westbrook and Samuel have been hyped up quite a bit recently, and I love Samuel's price in relation to DJ Moore's.  Miller quietly scored 7 TD's on only 33 catches in his rookie season.  He is now a starter opposite Allen Robinson, so his targets will take a big jump.  Moore is a good flier for $6.

RB - Going that thin at RB, you better feel real confident they can all stay healthy for 16 games.  Do you?  I would do some quick research on KJ's injury history.  He has had his fair share since high school.  He makes Chris Carson look like Ironman, broken leg and all.  Overall, 3 very good choices, but as you said, very scary.  Fun fact - the top 2 finishers in last year's contest had Chris Carson.

QB - I cannot, in good conscience, tell you I like your choices.  But hey, what do I know - I chose Eli Manning last year!  At least Trubisky never has to face the Bears D, right?  Cam gets a nice matchup vs TB when Mitch is on his bye, but Mitch gets a bad matchup vs NO when Cam is out the following week.

Good luck

Thanks man. I appreciate the commentary. I find that having others look at your lineup you find things that you continually overlook. And all your points are valid. No sweat on the QB comment - we all have who we like and not everyone is ever going to agree, haha. I have never been a fan of Trubisky but I think he has made enormous strides since he came into the league and I expect that to continue this year. I also like Goff and Cousins so there’s still a high likelihood that I switch it around. But I’ll be straight, I love Cam this year. He has never finished below QB4 when healthy and I don’t like to assume injuries will happen and draft essentially off what I think the player will do with a 16 game season. So Cam is who I really want and who I’m targeting in my main draft as well. Thanks again. 

Edit: Forgot to add - I really do like Edelman. I wanted someone consistent at WR and I feel he is someone that is guaranteed targets each week in case some others have poor performances. I love upside but I feel it’s important to have some stable numbers in there as well to give you a chance to survive when your upside guys aren’t pulling their weight. Diggs is a little too inconsistent for what I want in Edelman. 

 

[Elevencents]

Liking this one more but still some tweaking to come I am sure.......

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - SF/4 - $11
QB - Nick Foles - JAX/10 - $8
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/12 - $12
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/12 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/9 - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5

Total value: 250

I like Cousins but I think you can get by with two QB’s so I would trade Garoppolo and Foles for an upgrade. 

I like all your RBs minus Ingram. I like Ingram, and I like where he landed, but I’m not sure he keeps the job all year. If you’re confident he will start all 16 then I would stick with it. 

I like all your receivers as well. A lot I had considered. 

TE I don’t like at all. Rudolph I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole. He can very easily give you 2 or 3 points several weeks. Just no real upside. Andrew’s seems to be a hot pick - I’m not on board but I can’t blame you for picking him. 

K and TD I will never argue over, hah. I do like the Rams pick. Should be consistent points. 

 

[Raback]

QBs: I dont see either of these getting a lot of TDs. I dislike this combo a lot

RB: strong group that I like a good deal

WR: I think it pays to sacrifice one for depth and maybe a qb upgrade. Adams has had concussion problems 

TE: I like this group a lot

K: Wasted salary that could be used elsewhere to upgrade qb or more wr depth. but I realize you're trying to get to 18 roster spots here. 

D Looks good

My thoughts on Jackson and Darnold.  I think Darnold is this years breakout QB.  He really came on down the stretch last year and has improved weapons around him.  He’s very cheap and has an early bye, he’s one of my no brained picks.  Jackson probably doesn’t give you the monster weeks but his rushing output really sets a nice weekly floor.  If I’m only rostering 2 QBs I like Jackson a lot, if I go 3 QBs then I prefer someone with more week to week upside.  

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Here's a fun riddle:

Keenan Allen ($25) and Chris Godwin ($22) OR Mike Evans ($27) and Mike Williams ($17)?  The latter is a whopping $3 cheaper.

 

[TheWinz]

Here's a fun riddle:

Keenan Allen ($25) and Chris Godwin ($22) OR Mike Evans ($27) and Mike Williams ($17)?  The latter is a whopping $3 cheaper.

You could also ask Allen & Evans or Godwin & Williams, a difference of $13.  I have considered all 4 of these guys, and my favorite single player at his cost is Keenan.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Next riddle:

4 RBs with Chris Carlson at $18 or 5 RBs with Duke Johnson ($9) and Matt Breida ($9) as RB4 / RB5.

Concern is only rolling with 4 RBs.

 

[Scoresman]

Here's a fun riddle:

Keenan Allen ($25) and Chris Godwin ($22) OR Mike Evans ($27) and Mike Williams ($17)?  The latter is a whopping $3 cheaper.

Keenan and Godwin

 

[Elevencents]

Next riddle:

4 RBs with Chris Carlson at $18 or 5 RBs with Duke Johnson ($9) and Matt Breida ($9) as RB4 / RB5.

Concern is only rolling with 4 RBs.

Carson. 

 

[Interseptopus]

My thoughts on Jackson and Darnold.  I think Darnold is this years breakout QB.  He really came on down the stretch last year and has improved weapons around him.  He’s very cheap and has an early bye, he’s one of my no brained picks.  Jackson probably doesn’t give you the monster weeks but his rushing output really sets a nice weekly floor.  If I’m only rostering 2 QBs I like Jackson a lot, if I go 3 QBs then I prefer someone with more week to week upside.  

IMO Darnold is not a 30 td qb. To do well in this contest I think you absolutely need a 30 td qb. 2 good games vs 2 non playoff teams to end the previous year does not excite me. I do think Darnold holds some good value in this contest but I wont be counting on him as my qb1

Jackson, I dont think he gets many td at all. Again, I think when you look at the scoring you want QBs who score TDs. Jackson wont be passing a lot of TDs most likely and I dont see him making up for that with 10+ rushing tds. 

Given the scoring of this contest I'll take TD heavy QBs

I wish you luck! Hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Mark V

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Joe Flacco - DEN/10 - $7
RB - David Johnson - ARI/12 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/9 - $28
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Jaylen Samuels - PIT/7 - $11
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN/12 - $23
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Corey Davis - TEN/11 - $15
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/10 - $14
WR - Zay Jones - BUF/6 - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/9 - $15
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Adam Vinatieri - IND/6 - $5
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/10 - $6
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/11 - $5

having fun with this one at qb. meant a slight downgrade at my last wr spot from samuels to zay. Zay had 2/3 of his targets in the second half of the season. I think theres good opportunity for him to be useful

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Mark V

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Joe Flacco - DEN/10 - $7

having fun with this one at qb. meant a slight downgrade at my last wr spot from samuels to zay. Zay had 2/3 of his targets in the second half of the season. I think theres good opportunity for him to be useful

can't make up my mind about Goff.  on one hand, Kupp is back and the receiving corps is studly.  on the other hand, the bears and the patriots made Goff, McVay and the play action game look like garbage, and Gurley gave us all an inadequately explained shock at the end of the season.  

currently pro Winston and pro Flacco but these takes change daily lol.

 

[sooted72]

Here's a fun riddle:

Keenan Allen ($25) and Chris Godwin ($22) OR Mike Evans ($27) and Mike Williams ($17)?  The latter is a whopping $3 cheaper.

i feel like allen/godwin have the higher floor and evans/williams have the higher ceiling. personally it would depend on how many WR i had rostered.  the more i had the more id lean evans/williams.

why do i want a bourbon and coke all of a sudden??? 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

i feel like allen/godwin have the higher floor and evans/williams have the higher ceiling.

I must be doing this wrong.  I look at it opposite.  Allen is a market share beast and Godwin is getting all the love (buzz + Bruce Arians pub) so the market perception is that that pair has the higher ceiling (born out by pricing as well).  But Allen has a shakier injury history and the targets were driven up last year by team injury issues, and Godwin is a touch less proven than Williams, so Evans/Williams is the high floor play, and Allen/Godwin is the high ceiling play.

 

[sooted72]

I must be doing this wrong.  I look at it opposite.  Allen is a market share beast and Godwin is getting all the love (buzz + Bruce Arians pub) so the market perception is that that pair has the higher ceiling (born out by pricing as well).  But Allen has a shakier injury history and the targets were driven up last year by team injury issues, and Godwin is a touch less proven than Williams, so Evans/Williams is the high floor play, and Allen/Godwin is the high ceiling play.

i was talking about their weekly scoring.  i feel like A/G has much less variance.  E/W are more boom/bust.  mike williams had three 2 TD games last year.  but his floor is zero.  he had a 1-4-0, a 1-7-0 and a 0-0-0 last year.  evans and allen had the same amount of targets last year but evans had 300 more yards and 2 more TDs despite catching 11 less passes.

i feel like if i had a bigger group of WR i could absorb the E/W bad games better.  if i had a small roster id prefer A/G.

 

[Steeler]

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/6 - $12
RB - Latavius Murray - NO/9 - $16
RB - Jerick McKinnon - SF/4 - $15
RB - Jaylen Samuels - PIT/7 - $11
RB - Justin Jackson - LAC/12 - $9
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $25
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - George Kittle - SF/4 - $25
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $24
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Playing around with some crazy lineups and I came up with this stud TE roster.

I like both QBs at their price.

RB - Murray and Samuels will get touches no matter what and would be dominant if the starter goes down.  Jackson will be in my lineup if Gordon doesn't show up for week 1.  M. Brown is a really cheap way to get a potential player in the LAR offense.  I'm not too sure about McKinnon but he was the last guy I added to the roster and he fit the remain salary

WR - only 4 but should get plenty of targets

TE - will carry the team

PK/DT - didn't think too much about it right now, just grabbed 4 that cost $3 each. 

 

[TheWinz]

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/6 - $12
RB - Latavius Murray - NO/9 - $16
RB - Jerick McKinnon - SF/4 - $15
RB - Jaylen Samuels - PIT/7 - $11
RB - Justin Jackson - LAC/12 - $9
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $25
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - George Kittle - SF/4 - $25
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $24
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

RB - Murray and Samuels will get touches no matter what and would be dominant if the starter goes down.  Jackson will be in my lineup if Gordon doesn't show up for week 1.  M. Brown is a really cheap way to get a potential player in the LAR offense.  I'm not too sure about McKinnon but he was the last guy I added to the roster and he fit the remain salary

Pros

- Both flex scores coming from this trio a handful of times, and pretty much be guaranteed a very nice weekly score at TE

- WR's strong enough to put up 2 decent scores each week, and maybe a few flex scores

- Boom QB potential

Cons

- Bust QB potential

- Plenty of weeks having to use single digit scores at RB

Overall, I like the QB, WR, and TE positions.  McKinnon seems too risky.  IMO his price tag is inflated from what could have been before the start of last season.  He is in a full blown timeshare now, at best.  And considering his slow recovery, he may start the year on IR, forcing him to sit the first half.  I would consider using his $15 elsewhere.

 

[TheWinz]

TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/10 - $6
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/11 - $5

I did a deep dive into last year's D scoring.  I am at work right now (nightshifter), but will follow up during the day on this.  I have my excel spreadsheet at home.  IIRC, if you are spending $11, 3 D's would be the way to go, both safer and higher scoring.  CHI averaged over 10, LAR averaged 8, and OAK was at 3, but all the rest were 4 to 7.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My biggest fear with 2 QBs (because it has happened in the past to me) is that one guy manages to get hurt just in time for the other's bye week, meaning a zero at QB, which would probably be fatal. 

Probably...

 

[Birdie048]

Lots of good input here...  I am sure we all appreciate the "extra eyes on our team" ...

Ok, I looked at SOS and think this QB combo will hit well.  I am happy with RB's & TE, but I really love the WR group for the $ spent.  

The only problem I really see is the ATL connection (Ryan, Ridley & Hooper).

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/9 - $20
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
QB - Nick Foles - JAX/10 - $8
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Jordan Howard - PHI/10 - $14
WR - Calvin Ridley - ATL/9 - $20
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/12 - $16
WR - Tyrell Williams - OAK/6 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - Jared Cook - NO/9 - $17
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/9 - $15
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/10 - $12
PK - Jake Elliott - PHI/10 - $6
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/11 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/12 - $7
TD - New England Patriots - NE/10 - $6

I think the 1.5 PPR for TE makes 3 TE a minimum here... they could be Flex each week on just a few catches.  I was looking for $ to add Oak TE D Waller $8

 

[Interseptopus]

I think the 1.5 PPR for TE makes 3 TE a minimum here... they could be Flex each week on just a few catches.

That isnt a change from previous years though, and I dont recall past winners going nuts at te

 

[Birdie048]

That isnt a change from previous years though, and I dont recall past winners going nuts at te

I agree completely, but they did not ignore the TE position either IIRC.  I was just referencing the idea that having a 3rd TE over a 6 WR or 3rd Def might be better served for value.  Just an opinion

 

[Interseptopus]

I agree completely, but they did not ignore the TE position either IIRC.  I was just referencing the idea that having a 3rd TE over a 6 WR or 3rd Def might be better served for value.  Just an opinion

it's an interesting strategy, that's for sure

 

[TheWinz]

TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/10 - $6
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/11 - $5

Yes, after much math, the numbers suggest going $4, $4, $3 this year will net you more points than going $6 and $5.  I started to show my math, but the post became a mile long, so I stopped.  There are 10 teams in the $3-4 range this year, and it's safe to say they all won't finish in the bottom 10.  Last year, there were 10 teams in the $2-3 range, and only 3 finished in the bottom 10, while 3 finished in the top 10.  By comparison, there were 3 teams $8 or more, and they finished 4th, 24th, and 30th.  Cheap and deep is the way to go.  The only D that scored with any real consistency last year were the Bears.  All other teams were all over the place each week, and basically any combo of 3 D's beat out any combo of 2 D's the vast majority of the time.

As an example, we will use your DEN & GB D's.  Last year DEN finished 8th overall, with 103 points.  That's an average of 6.9 per game, if you divide by 15, allowing for the bye.  Here are the weekly totals - 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 10, 10, 12, 28.  GB finished tied for 18th with these totals - 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 8, 10, 10, 12, 13.

A more consistent approach is to take into account the opponents your D's will face.  Let's take 2 extremes from last year.  The teams that faced NO scored 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11.  The teams that faced TB scored 0, 1, 3, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 10, 10, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20.  My contention is that it's more important who your D faces than who your D is.  And, as we all know, it's easier to pick which which offenses are gonna give up sacks and INT's vs picking which defenses are gonna get sacks and INT's (well, except for a few, like the Bears).  OK, the post got too long, so I will stop now.

 

[Interseptopus]

Mark VI

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/9 - $14
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Nick Foles - JAX/10 - $8
RB - David Johnson - ARI/12 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/9 - $28
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Jaylen Samuels - PIT/7 - $11
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN/12 - $23
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Corey Davis - TEN/11 - $15
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/10 - $14
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/9 - $15
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3
TD - New York Giants - NYG/11 - $4
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Getting closer I think. 

I'd like to get Herndon or Andrews added, or another $8-9 TE, but that would mean downgrading my QBs to:

Goff, Darnold, Jones and adding Herndon

or Goff, Garrapolo, Jones, two $3 K, $4, $3, $3 Def

If I wanted Andrew's I could do

Goff, Garrapolo, Jones, two $3 K, def at $3, $3, $3 Def (leaning this way, but I'd really like to find $4 to get foles back)

 

[Elevencents]

Getting further and further away from my 1st squad, lol. And of course I love them all, hah.

QB - Cam Newton - CAR/7 - $19
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12
RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL/9 - $23
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/5 - $23
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Tevin Coleman - SF/4 - $18
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/9 - $22
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI/12 - $12
WR - David Moore - SEA/11 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - Vance McDonald - PIT/7 - $16
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3
PK - Matt Gay - TB/7 - $3
PK - Zane Gonzalez - ARI/12 - $3
TD - New York Giants - NYG/11 - $4
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

 

[Smooth Operator]

Like other members of the Shark pool, I am vacillating between 18 - 20 players.

Here is my 18-player submission:

Pos    Players                           Bye          Price

QB    Winston, Jameis           TB/7         $13

QB    Jackson, Lamar            Bal/8        $12

RB    Mixon, Joe                     Cin/9        $28

RB    Chubb, Nick                   Cle/7        $25

RB    Michel, Sony                 NE/10       $20

RB    Carson, Chris               Sea/11      $18

WR   Hilton, T.Y.                    Ind/6          $25

WR   Cooper, Amari             Dal/8          $24

WR   Davis, Corey               Ten/11        $15

WR   Fitzgerald, Larry         Ari/12         $12

WR   Fuller, Will                  Hou/10        $15

TE    Rudolph, Kyle            Min/12         $12

TE    Doyle, Jack                Ind/6            $10

PK   McManus, Brandon  Den/10         $4

PK  Bullock, Randy           Cin/9             $3

PK  Sanders, Jason         Mia/5            $3

DEF  Philadelphia            Phi/10           $6

DEF  Green Bay               GB/11            $5

Totals:  18 Players                          $250

OB – I should get a good scoring combination between Winston and Jackson

RB – Going with 4 is tricky, but $6 doesn’t buy anything now. I am going back and forth between Chubb and Connor. Chubb is at the better price point, but I worry about Hunt’s return from suspension and what he may take away from Chubb and the end of the season. I hope Michel’s knees hold out.

WR – Hilton and Cooper are top 15. Davis and Fitzgerald have good to strong end-of-season SOS. I like Fuller to repeat his TO connection with Newton.

TE - Just used Pasquino’s top TE by Committee

PK – McManus on an iffy offense and thin air FGs. Sanders and Bullock have good back end SOS.

DEF – Green Bay and Philly – See Sanders and Bullock.

 

[TheWinz]

RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL/9 - $23
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/5 - $23
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Tevin Coleman - SF/4 - $18

The smaller the RB corps, the more you have to rely on them staying healthy all year.  Dunno if you have ever visited this site https://www.sportsinjurypredictor.com/ .  It's a pay site, but they allow you to research a few players a day for free.  All I know for sure is that my roster will be fairly small this year, and I will be researching each and every player I choose.

P.S. I like the top 3 alot, but they do have their fair share of risk.

 

[Interseptopus]

Has anyone considered Tom Brady? 

 

[-OZ-]

Version 4.3

QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $4

RB - David Johnson - ARI/12 - $30
RB - Aaron Jones - GB/11 - $24
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9

WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/6 - $25
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - John Brown - BUF/6 - $9

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - Jared Cook - NO/9 - $17
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8

PK - Wil Lutz - NO/9 - $6
PK - Dan Bailey - MIN/12 - $4

TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4

Thinking I might swap for more depth, most years I'm closer to 30 than 18 players.  

Modifications I anticipate: adding a 3rd kicker, maybe swap D Jones for a decent kicker. Add a 5th wr, and 5th RB. But I like my top trio a lot in each position so that makes it tough.

 

[chocula]

Iggy,

Helluva write up.  I thoroughly enjoyed reading that - it was like a story.  You did leave one thing off though...

2019 - TheWinz takes top prize thanx to Daniel Jones's 40 points in week 16

What was my first year playing? I think this is my 5th year. 

EDIT: My profile says I joined in 2008. Have I really been here for 11 years? Wow. 

 

[chocula]

Has anyone considered Tom Brady? 

Yep....

QB: Love the Brady/Brees combo. I always feel like a 3rd QB is the way to go  

RB: I think I am the only one that likes Ingram this year   He seems ripe for another big year  Jackson will steal a few TDs, but I like him. 

WR: I am happy with my WRs, but don’t think I could survive week 7 with 3 on bye  

TE: Happy with my TEs. Kielce will most likely be #1, but is too expensive  

K and DEF: nothing special, but I like having 3 of each and feel that Atlanta will see tons of FGs with their indoor schedule this year  

QB - Drew Brees - NO/9 - $16
QB - Tom Brady - NE/10 - $11
QB - Joe Flacco - DEN/10 - $7
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - James White - NE/10 - $19
RB - Ito Smith - ATL/9 - $11
RB - Jaylen Samuels - PIT/7 - $11
RB - Corey Clement - PHI/10 - $4
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/9 - $32
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT/7 - $30
WR - Tyrell Williams - OAK/6 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Chris Hogan - CAR/7 - $4
TE - Eric Ebron - IND/6 - $16
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Matt LaCosse - NE/10 - $6
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $6
PK - Giorgio Tavecchio - ATL/9 - $5
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $7
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $4
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3

 

[TheWinz]

PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $6
PK - Giorgio Tavecchio - ATL/9 - $5
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $7
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $4
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3

With the prices being as they are this year, it's hard to justify spending $29 on kickers and defenses.  Definitely need a boost at RB.

 

[TheWinz]

PK - Dan Bailey - MIN/12 - $4

He may lose his job to the newly acquired Kaare Vedvik, who they just traded for.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Getting closer to something I like, but if I am carrying 3 TE, not sure I want two sharing a bye week.  Though it would be week 6 so kind of early.

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/6 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/12 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/9 - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5

Total value: 250

 

[Birdie048]

Getting closer to something I like, but if I am carrying 3 TE, not sure I want two sharing a bye week.  Though it would be week 6 so kind of early.

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/6 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/12 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/9 - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5

Total value: 250

NICE!  I like the QB/RB/WR combos.  TE is too hit or miss for me but I can see the cost value point here.  Too much $ on Def since the points are so variable.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

NICE!  I like the QB/RB/WR combos.  TE is too hit or miss for me but I can see the cost value point here.  Too much $ on Def since the points are so variable.

Good point on the Def, thanks.  Plus in this contest def all score very close.  Maybe I chop $$$ at Def and upgrade TE.  Thanks again.

 

[apalmer]

Getting closer to something I like, but if I am carrying 3 TE, not sure I want two sharing a bye week.  Though it would be week 6 so kind of early.

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/7 - $13
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/12 - $12
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX/10 - $24
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/6 - $10
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/12 - $5
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/7 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/9 - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5

Total value: 250

Question (nothing against Mike Evans, but he's a good example for my point): If you could spend $2 more than you are on Evans and get a guy who Dodds projects as scoring 4 points per week more, would you do it?

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Question (nothing against Mike Evans, but he's a good example for my point): If you could spend $2 more than you are on Evans and get a guy who Dodds projects as scoring 4 points per week more, would you do it?

Yes, I will have to look into that.

 

[jerseys finest]

QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $19
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/12 - $24
RB - Josh Jacobs - OAK/6 - $20
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/10 - $15
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $32
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - John Brown - BUF/6 - $9
WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/4 - $9
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/9 - $8
TE - Vance McDonald - PIT/7 - $16
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/4 - $8
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $5
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3

The problem with this tournament is how much time we get and how many versions that i've made. I may have already made the damn winner, lol. But alas,  we continue to tweak and play with it. Doubt this is a final version, but i kinda really like it. May mess with getting a third QB in there. May switch up the D a bit. May move the TE spot around a bit more. I do feel close though. dont we all after our X00th version so far. 

QB - wentz has top 3 potential, i like that. just needs to stay healthy. Darnold has improvements all around him, looking for a solid leap in year 2. (might want a 3rd in here. keenum may be a steal at $4. looking like the top dog. If WAS was smart, they would sit Haskins for a year to develop.)

RB - Cook and Jacobs are 3 down backs and the pure 1's in their offenses. I like their potential. Carson we all love at his price. Sanders is the 1b in a top 5 offense, i expect him to be the 1a by midseason. Thompson is my 5$ flier pick. There is usually a very cheap break out RB every year. He's my dart. 

WR - Julio is a monster. We all like godwins potential and im high on Curtis Samuel as well for weekly production. Brown, Deebo and T Smith i think will all be every down players (1a/1b or #2 players) once the season starts and should all have around 50-60 catches as their floor. (just my guess) and be flex worthy and bye coverage while all having big game potential each week. 

TE - High ceiling/decent floor Mcdonald, High floor/decent ceiling Andrews, Herdon is the high upside wildcard with a 4 game suspension to stack with Darnold. I've been running with just 2 TE's for my lineups, but the 1.5 ppr discussion peaked my interest and made me think a lil extra insurance there could be smart. so im messing with having 3 and treating them and WR more singularly. Where any of them have flex consideration. May move mcdonald up to Henry or Engram and Herndon down to Swaim or something. May just go back to 2.

May move the cowboys Defense, but i think they have value at $5. But its the cowboys. Niners have a lot of talent on defense and im betting on that for $3.

 

[matuski]

Every roster looks so much the same.

The prices really funnel you into that 18-25 dollar WR/RB, cheap defenses and kickers.

 

[rockaction]

He may lose his job to the newly acquired Kaare Vedvik, who they just traded for.

Thanks. I had Bailey as a distinct option at K.