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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Post Helene and Milton (1 Viewer)

But to flee Tampa, Sarasota, Ft Myers and go to Orlando, I never understand that.
There are hotel rooms and no storm surge. The wind is a much lesser problem. Just don't hang out by the windows.

There's no way everyone is making it to Georgia.
I don't disagree but the whole city of Tampa and St Pete won't all be under water and you're driving a long way away and you're still going to get slammed by the storm
There will be footage of some of these hotels, they aren't all going to be 5-star resorts folks land in

BTW: What staff is going to be running room service up during the storm?
There is 3, 4 and 5-bedroom homes on higher ground in every direction, doesn't anybody have a friend to hang out with just until the storm passes?
I met a lot of folks this afternoon from Tampa/St Pete while I visited 3 different grocery stores/markets around here/Jupiter as I was gathering my Hurricane watch party stash

-On another note you are always so kind and understanding when these catastrophes strike, you live around Houston as I recall
I wanted to leave you with something good in this post because if I ask nicely you usually make me feel better about whatever is troubling me

-My son has a friend we'll call Bobby and he is the same age as my son but kind of a 180, the friend lives with his mother in the basement, one of those types.
He has stayed at my house and I literally mapped out what he needed to do in order to maybe have a life/girlfriend, that kind of stuff and encouraged him to leave Publix!
Like so many young men, he lacked any real male father figure in his life and I have tried to help without over stepping boundaries
But he saw what my son was putting together in life and I just showed him how he could have the same things if he wanted them enough

He now works at a retirement home or where the old folks go to live out their last year or two and he met a gal in there that is as wacky as he is, perfect match for each other
Why am I sharing this and why is it a good story? Bobby's mother and others have fled to Orlando and Bobby decided to volunteer to work in the old folks' home with his now "fiance"
And I just thought how awesome and exciting, they're going to get paid good money to ride out the storm in St Pete and service the needs of the folks that need help the most
I don't know why but that just feels like kind of a romantic story of sorts and I think this experience will make them even closer.
They are going to literally sleep at the old folks' home, most of the staff was so happy and relieved that these 2 volunteered

-Honestly I wish I could film it. I write more than just football threads believe it or not(I wouldn't) but I like to write short stories from time to time and I think two 20-somethings in a retirement home during a major hurricane and the possibilities are endless.

Anyways, just thought I'd share, thanks Mrs Rannous and I hear your concerns, your right in understanding why folks are fleeing
You know I can't peel me son out of St Pete right now, I'm trying to stay calm but I wish he and his wife would come stay with me for a few nights.
 
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I'm still trying to figure out where the slow down is happening
Also could be a function of the two main steering currents. There's a low over Texas/Louisiana, and a high over Caribbean. Their rotation is funneling the hurricane toward Florida. Neither system is especially strong. Any variance in the speed of their circulation affects the forward speed of Milton.
Yeah, those were the two I was referring to. Looks like south is back in play a lil more. Tampa definitely gonna feel it either way.

How high is that wall they put up around the hospital anyway?
 
I'm still trying to figure out where the slow down is happening
Also could be a function of the two main steering currents. There's a low over Texas/Louisiana, and a high over Caribbean. Their rotation is funneling the hurricane toward Florida. Neither system is especially strong. Any variance in the speed of their circulation affects the forward speed of Milton.
Yeah, those were the two I was referring to. Looks like south is back in play a lil more. Tampa definitely gonna feel it either way.

How high is that wall they put up around the hospital anyway?
It can take up to a 15 foot storm surge
 
North vs South of Tampa is the difference between another 0 getting added onto the damage total. 5pm track advisory is sweaty.
It’s out … any real news?
The track is shifting south but there is quite a bit of risk because the more shear the more north it will track. So it's a weaker direct hit on Tampa or a stronger direct hit to the south.

A couple mets are predicting a very late near due north track maybe for shock factor.

Always follow the nhc. Local and national mets are still error prone.
 
what is the point of us flying an airplane into the storm? what is actually being gained from this?
Isn't so they can perform accurate measurements of the hurricane?
is that where the Hurricane center gets its info? i wasn’t sure….actually, i never really thought how they measured pressure or speed.
satellites are a great source of information, but their data basically needs to be correlated with actual data. these planes take those actual readings to provide that correlation.

oh, and they make them stronger /s
 
@eoMMan was talking about shutters and those are interesting and a double edge sword.
On the one hand if you are near the water and want to survive you should put up the shutters, your life likely depends on it
The downside is you are basically locked into a dark metal like box now, yeah its your house but once the power is turned off you can't see much
Also you can't see out side hardly at all and that can be maddening

If you don't absolutely need storm shutters and you have hurricane impact windows, enjoy the show because you will want to see out and it's very dangerous to open your front door just to get a peek outside and see what is going on around you.

-We have storm shutters on a 2nd floor condo that cover 5 sliders long Florida room and we hate having to close them up because you can't really see out.
We have these on all the windows, many of the condos in here do and you just close them up and then hope for the best
2nd floor so you do have to go up on a ladder in order to close them but well worth it and they are manual
Wow. Could you maybe leave one small window unshuttered for evac and viewing? Tape the **** out of it? Board it from the inside?
Taping is a no no for windows, it actually can create bigger problems
explain please
 
@eoMMan was talking about shutters and those are interesting and a double edge sword.
On the one hand if you are near the water and want to survive you should put up the shutters, your life likely depends on it
The downside is you are basically locked into a dark metal like box now, yeah its your house but once the power is turned off you can't see much
Also you can't see out side hardly at all and that can be maddening

If you don't absolutely need storm shutters and you have hurricane impact windows, enjoy the show because you will want to see out and it's very dangerous to open your front door just to get a peek outside and see what is going on around you.

-We have storm shutters on a 2nd floor condo that cover 5 sliders long Florida room and we hate having to close them up because you can't really see out.
We have these on all the windows, many of the condos in here do and you just close them up and then hope for the best
2nd floor so you do have to go up on a ladder in order to close them but well worth it and they are manual
Wow. Could you maybe leave one small window unshuttered for evac and viewing? Tape the **** out of it? Board it from the inside?
Taping is a no no for windows, it actually can create bigger problems
explain please
It's a myth that started in the 70s and unfortunately some Floridians still think it's a good idea. "Hurricane Brochures" back then use to print it, that's how bad things use to be

-When a window breaks, the glass will shatter into larger and perhaps even more dangerous pieces that are held together by the tape. The tape holds these large pieces of glass together after they shatter and they can then act like projectiles flying into your home, it's a really bad idea.

Meteorlogist - Paul Dellegatto from Fox 13 in Tampa has a video detailing more about it


And another

 
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what is the point of us flying an airplane into the storm? what is actually being gained from this?
Isn't so they can perform accurate measurements of the hurricane?
is that where the Hurricane center gets its info? i wasn’t sure….actually, i never really thought how they measured pressure or speed.
satellites are a great source of information, but their data basically needs to be correlated with actual data. these planes take those actual readings to provide that correlation.

oh, and they make them stronger /s

Scientists aboard the aircraft deploy Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwindsondes as NOAA Corps officers pilot and navigate the P-3 through the hurricane. These instruments continuously transmit measurements of pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind direction and speed as they fall toward the sea, providing a detailed look at the structure of the storm and its intensity. The P-3s' tail Doppler radar and lower fuselage radar systems, meanwhile, scan the storm vertically and horizontally, giving scientists and forecasters a real-time look at the storm. The P-3s can also deploy probes called bathythermographs that measure the temperature of the sea.

Storm surge forecasts have benefited from the addition of NOAA-developed Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometers (SFMRs) to NOAA’s P-3s. SFMRs measure over-ocean wind speed and rain rate in hurricanes and tropical storms, key indicators of potentially deadly storm surges. Surge is a major cause of hurricane-related deaths.

In addition to conducting research to help scientists better understand hurricanes and other kinds of tropical cyclones, NOAA's P-3s participate in storm reconnaissance missions when tasked to do so by the NOAA National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center. The purpose of these missions is primarily to locate the center of the storm and measure central pressure and surface winds around the eye. (The U.S. Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron also supports this mission with their WC-130J aircraft.) Information from both research and reconnaissance flights directly contribute to the safety of people living along and visiting the vulnerable Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
 
Did anyone mention the wobble on this thing?
Newer models and tracks have this thing going over Sarasota on an angle of course and would still likely go hard at Tampa Bay before making a bee line for Orlando
There also is one that take it much closer to South Florida than I thought we would see being on the backside of the storm along the East Coast
 
Stay safe everyone. Wishing all of you the best.

Question for those that have jobs requiring you to be on-site/in the office. How do employers handle the "forced" time off if you need to evacuate? Use PTO if you have it? Just a cost of doing business for companies that have facilities in these areas?
We offer employees to take PTO or days unpaid.
 
The conspiracy theories I have been seeing about hurricanes on social media are full on deranged.
I'm afraid to even ask what the conspiracy theory is (don't tell me please)

-When the track changed due to a wobble and it appears as though landfall might be closer to Sarasota, it still encompasses a lot of Tampa Bay/St Pete
Those folks in Tampa Bay are not out of the woods by any stretch

-How does one describe officials telling everyone to flee 2-3-4 days ahead of time based on a track that was pretty much agreed on by all the models and then a wobble occurs?
A wobble is very common to Floridians who have lived here and lived thru these storms most of their lives, it's not surprising

What is surprising was how sure ALL the models and ALL the meteorologists were in agreement about Tampa Bay...somebody eluded to this earlier how they could be so sure
 
Helene was going to barrel down on Tallahassee, remember? She was going to rip the capital of Florida into pieces and the Weather Channel was set up there for it
Then it wobbled and ended up going straight thru Perry and Valdosta, I watched storm chasers on Youtube trying to run around outside in the storm as it made landfall in Perry

Tampa Bay...Sarasota sounds about right when you have a wobble 450-500 miles away

Tallahassee to Perry is about 55 miles although we are talking a little more East-West
Tampa Bay to Sarasota is about 60 miles give or take and we are talking more North-South here but keep in mind that Milton is coming in on an angle right now
 
-How does one describe officials telling everyone to flee 2-3-4 days ahead of time based on a track that was pretty much agreed on by all the models and then a wobble occurs?

We describe it as them doing their jobs and looking out for human life with the information they have available. To not do so would be negligent.

Seriously MoP, don't go all MoP here. If they don't evacuate early the areas most likely to be devastated, then there isn't time for the number of people involved to get out who need to.
 
Did anyone mention the wobble on this thing?
Newer models and tracks have this thing going over Sarasota on an angle of course and would still likely go hard at Tampa Bay before making a bee line for Orlando
There also is one that take it much closer to South Florida than I thought we would see being on the backside of the storm along the East Coast
That super south one was what got my attention yesterday. And no shear down there. I wonder if snakes can fly :snakenado:
 
-How does one describe officials telling everyone to flee 2-3-4 days ahead of time based on a track that was pretty much agreed on by all the models and then a wobble occurs?

We describe it as them doing their jobs and looking out for human life with the information they have available. To not do so would be negligent.

Seriously MoP, don't go all MoP here. If they don't evacuate early the areas most likely to be devastated, then there isn't time for the number of people involved to get out who need to.
I think you misread, let me try this again

-People have been assuming the track would stay right on course and I don't know how many people evacuated from Sarasota but now it looks like the wall might pass over there
Now with the storm going South by maybe 55-65 miles, now you have storm surge numbers much higher further South along the West Coast like Ft Myers or Port Charlotte
Some of those people likely were not evacuated earlier today or those folks thought they were in the clear
There is still time to get out if people want to leave but it's getting late

What might have been 3-5 feet and some folks thought they would just ride it out looking at how snarled traffic was on the Interstates but now maybe that forecast suddenly changes to something like 6 to 10 feet but 2 days ago all the models pointed to Tampa Bay

I wasn't trying to insult the meteorologists especially the local ones that I've been watching in Tampa Bay for the last many days, guys like Paul Dellegatto who use to be on the TV when I lived in Tampa back in the mid 90s
 
It's a myth that started in the 70s and unfortunately some Floridians still think it's a good idea. "Hurricane Brochures" back then use to print it, that's how bad things use to be
Yeh, we used to hear about taping windows growing up. It was supposed to keep shattered glass from flying into the house.
Hurricane David 1979, I was 5 years old, my parents were from Charleston, WV but I was born in Miami and that's where we lived
We were in our first home maybe a year and my mother was taping the windows exactly how they tell you not to now
I'll never forget that and she did it because the hurricane brochures you get in the grocery stores told people to do it
 
-On another note you are always so kind and understanding when these catastrophes strike, you live around Houston as I recall
I wanted to leave you with something good in this post because if I ask nicely you usually make me feel better about whatever is troubling me

-My son has a friend we'll call Bobby and he is the same age as my son but kind of a 180, the friend lives with his mother in the basement, one of those types.
He has stayed at my house and I literally mapped out what he needed to do in order to maybe have a life/girlfriend, that kind of stuff and encouraged him to leave Publix!
Like so many young men, he lacked any real male father figure in his life and I have tried to help without over stepping boundaries
But he saw what my son was putting together in life and I just showed him how he could have the same things if he wanted them enough

He now works at a retirement home or where the old folks go to live out their last year or two and he met a gal in there that is as wacky as he is, perfect match for each other
Why am I sharing this and why is it a good story? Bobby's mother and others have fled to Orlando and Bobby decided to volunteer to work in the old folks' home with his now "fiance"
And I just thought how awesome and exciting, they're going to get paid good money to ride out the storm in St Pete and service the needs of the folks that need help the most
I don't know why but that just feels like kind of a romantic story of sorts and I think this experience will make them even closer.
They are going to literally sleep at the old folks' home, most of the staff was so happy and relieved that these 2 volunteered

-Honestly I wish I could film it. I write more than just football threads believe it or not(I wouldn't) but I like to write short stories from time to time and I think two 20-somethings in a retirement home during a major hurricane and the possibilities are endless.

Anyways, just thought I'd share, thanks Mrs Rannous and I hear your concerns, your right in understanding why folks are fleeing
You know I can't peel me son out of St Pete right now, I'm trying to stay calm but I wish he and his wife would come stay with me for a few nights.
Aww... Thank you. And, yes, I live by Houston. Beryl went right over my house. That's the second time I've had the eye of a hurricane go right over. (Alicia 1983)

The story about Bobby is heartwarming. I'm pretty sure the residents are very happy to see those familiar faces at this point in time.

Sorry about your kid. Some people have to learn this stuff the hard way. I hope he gets through it okay and wiser.
 
-How does one describe officials telling everyone to flee 2-3-4 days ahead of time based on a track that was pretty much agreed on by all the models and then a wobble occurs?

We describe it as them doing their jobs and looking out for human life with the information they have available. To not do so would be negligent.

Seriously MoP, don't go all MoP here. If they don't evacuate early the areas most likely to be devastated, then there isn't time for the number of people involved to get out who need to.
They are doing their jobs. After Ike, analysis improved how this stuff happens all over. And this is where it all began. It's difficult to overstate just how much Ed Emmett did for disaster prep. We are all used to the idea of a public press conference with multiple officials giving updates in their areas of resposibility. But it wasn't like that in the dark times. It was confusing and sort of like the Keystone Cops were running the show. A nice blueprint for getting stuff done in an orderly manner made everyone safer.

For me locally, our CBS affiliate, KHOU, hired Dr Neil Frank back in 1987. He was the head of the National Hurricane Center before that. He imparted his expertise to the current head of the weather department, David Paul. He always makes sure that people know that the storm could go anywhere in that cone and why. I always know about the steering currents and other nuggets of information so I can make an informed choice. He gets the whole team to provide weather education during the run-up to storms of any kind so all can get a better understanding of what's going on.

Some of y'all have been talking about that wobble thing. Back when Cat 5 Rita was threatening the area, it kept jiggling around like Jello. I wasn't comfortable until Frank made the call about where it would make landfall. Some hurricanes just aren't all that co-operative. Back when the Harvey predictions were coming in, David Paul went to Dr. Frank's house to talk about it. The numbers said FIFTY inches of rain might happen. They looked at each other and said there's no way, but Paul reported it anyway just in case. Good thing, too. You just never know.
 
-On another note you are always so kind and understanding when these catastrophes strike, you live around Houston as I recall
I wanted to leave you with something good in this post because if I ask nicely you usually make me feel better about whatever is troubling me

-My son has a friend we'll call Bobby and he is the same age as my son but kind of a 180, the friend lives with his mother in the basement, one of those types.
He has stayed at my house and I literally mapped out what he needed to do in order to maybe have a life/girlfriend, that kind of stuff and encouraged him to leave Publix!
Like so many young men, he lacked any real male father figure in his life and I have tried to help without over stepping boundaries
But he saw what my son was putting together in life and I just showed him how he could have the same things if he wanted them enough

He now works at a retirement home or where the old folks go to live out their last year or two and he met a gal in there that is as wacky as he is, perfect match for each other
Why am I sharing this and why is it a good story? Bobby's mother and others have fled to Orlando and Bobby decided to volunteer to work in the old folks' home with his now "fiance"
And I just thought how awesome and exciting, they're going to get paid good money to ride out the storm in St Pete and service the needs of the folks that need help the most
I don't know why but that just feels like kind of a romantic story of sorts and I think this experience will make them even closer.
They are going to literally sleep at the old folks' home, most of the staff was so happy and relieved that these 2 volunteered

-Honestly I wish I could film it. I write more than just football threads believe it or not(I wouldn't) but I like to write short stories from time to time and I think two 20-somethings in a retirement home during a major hurricane and the possibilities are endless.

Anyways, just thought I'd share, thanks Mrs Rannous and I hear your concerns, your right in understanding why folks are fleeing
You know I can't peel me son out of St Pete right now, I'm trying to stay calm but I wish he and his wife would come stay with me for a few nights.
Aww... Thank you. And, yes, I live by Houston. Beryl went right over my house. That's the second time I've had the eye of a hurricane go right over. (Alicia 1983)

The story about Bobby is heartwarming. I'm pretty sure the residents are very happy to see those familiar faces at this point in time.

Sorry about your kid. Some people have to learn this stuff the hard way. I hope he gets through it okay and wiser.
I do remember this, seems like a long time ago but that was actually June/July this year?
How long did you lose power?
 
5 AM update from NOAA looks about the same as it has for the last 15 hours or so…just south of Tampa Bay? 130 mph Cat 4 at landfall.
 
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Milton will not fade. Dropped below 910mb again and unless an ERC comes it's going to possibly drop below 900 again.

The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 

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