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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Post Helene and Milton (1 Viewer)

We were about 30 miles east of where Ivan made landfall. We were on the "not so bad" side and that one made me more nervous than Katrina that hit about 60 miles west of us. Ivan knocked down trees, ripped up my fence. Told the wife (who slept through it all of course) that if anything resembling Ivan came our way again that we were leaving. This thing is way worse, even if it gets "disrupted" a bit before landfall.

If I lived within 60 miles of projected landfall, I'd be packing up the kids and the dogs and leaving my meaningless material crap we've accumulated over the years.

Good thoughts and hope for the best for those anywhere near this thing.
 
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We were about 30 miles east of where Ivan made landfall. We were on the "not so bad" side and that one made me more nervous than Katrina that hit about 60 miles west of us. I've knocked down trees, ripped up my fence. Told the wife (who slept through it all of course) that if anything resembling Ivan came our way again that we were leaving. This thing is way worse, even if it gets "disrupted" a bit before landfall.

If I lived within 60 miles of projected landfall, I'd be packing up the kids and the dogs and leaving my meaningless material crap we've accumulated over the years.

Good thoughts and hope for the best for those anywhere near this thing.
I'm on the beach in New Jersey about 65 miles north of where Super Storm Sandy made landfall. Water came up 27 feet, fortunately I'm at the highest point in my town at 30 feet above sea level.
 
My folks live in Bradenton one canal over from the manatee river.

Their canals are designed to be “flood proof” but last storm rhey were on the edge of running over with 6ft of surge.

At 10 itll twke out their pool and may break into the house. At 15ft their home will likely be a loss. Thankfully they packed up the essentials and drlve north to us in Chattanooga yesterday,

Mom’s cried once or twice. Pop keeps checking streams bur we’re trying to keep theur minds off it.

Several of their friends are riding it our. A couple now regret it but figure they cant get out now.

Ugh.
 
My folks live in Bradenton one canal over from the manatee river.

Their canals are designed to be “flood proof” but last storm rhey were on the edge of running over with 6ft of surge.

At 10 itll twke out their pool and may break into the house. At 15ft their home will likely be a loss. Thankfully they packed up the essentials and drlve north to us in Chattanooga yesterday,

Mom’s cried once or twice. Pop keeps checking streams bur we’re trying to keep theur minds off it.

Several of their friends are riding it our. A couple now regret it but figure they cant get out now.

Ugh.
Glad to hear your folks are with you. That’s most important
 
Daughter and BF are deciding whether to evacuate from Clermont (Orlando area). They have decent elevation for FL but BF has an uncle in GA. Orlando forecasting 60-80+ mph winds
 
@eoMMan was talking about shutters and those are interesting and a double edge sword.
On the one hand if you are near the water and want to survive you should put up the shutters, your life likely depends on it
The downside is you are basically locked into a dark metal like box now, yeah its your house but once the power is turned off you can't see much
Also you can't see out side hardly at all and that can be maddening

If you don't absolutely need storm shutters and you have hurricane impact windows, enjoy the show because you will want to see out and it's very dangerous to open your front door just to get a peek outside and see what is going on around you.

-We have storm shutters on a 2nd floor condo that cover 5 sliders long Florida room and we hate having to close them up because you can't really see out.
We have these on all the windows, many of the condos in here do and you just close them up and then hope for the best
2nd floor so you do have to go up on a ladder in order to close them but well worth it and they are manual
All smart houses in the islands have wooden storm shutters on the outside as well.

During Irma, cat 5, my BIL and my nephew had to crawl into a little storage space that was about 4x4x10 deep. Usually used for pool supplies. It was a new build compared to the main house and was built straight into the foundation of the cottage that was a build on to the property. It saved their lives. They were in there for 3 hours. The main house was moved off the foundation. They would not recommend a cavalier attitude about being able to see out the windows. :shrug:
 
My folks live in Bradenton one canal over from the manatee river.

Their canals are designed to be “flood proof” but last storm rhey were on the edge of running over with 6ft of surge.

At 10 itll twke out their pool and may break into the house. At 15ft their home will likely be a loss. Thankfully they packed up the essentials and drlve north to us in Chattanooga yesterday,

Mom’s cried once or twice. Pop keeps checking streams bur we’re trying to keep theur minds off it.

Several of their friends are riding it our. A couple now regret it but figure they cant get out now.

Ugh.
My grandparents used to live that way...same scenario. Canal off manatee river. We were there during Elena and watched from the screened in pool area as the water crept within about 10 feet of the porch. Crazy as the canal had to have been 1/2 acre and downhill away.
 
I have a question about the Howard Franklin, I know they are building a new one but it's not even close to being finished last I saw, what happens?
Is there a chance the roads will be washed out completely?
You have Howard Franklin, Courtney Campbell and Gandy, could all 3 get knocked out? And the Sunshine Skyway, OMG that's gonna be shutdown, people in Pinellas could be cut off for a period of time. There is another way across involving Oldsmar as I recall but things could get very dicey for the good folks in St Pete and Tampa
 
I have a question about the Howard Franklin, I know they are building a new one but it's not even close to being finished last I saw, what happens?
Is there a chance the roads will be washed out completely?
You have Howard Franklin, Courtney Campbell and Gandy, could all 3 get knocked out? And the Sunshine Skyway, OMG that's gonna be shutdown, people in Pinellas could be cut off for a period of time. There is another way across involving Oldsmar as I recall but things could get very dicey for the good folks in St Pete and Tampa
Yea if you are coming back from north you could take 75 through Oldsmar/palm harbor and then up 19.
 
Inner eye is falling apart. This might be a good thing if it wasnt quite so early. Might go for a second peak tomorrow.

A second peak more or less ensures cat 5 levels of storm surge to make the shore.
 
I have a question about the Howard Franklin, I know they are building a new one but it's not even close to being finished last I saw, what happens?
Is there a chance the roads will be washed out completely?
You have Howard Franklin, Courtney Campbell and Gandy, could all 3 get knocked out? And the Sunshine Skyway, OMG that's gonna be shutdown, people in Pinellas could be cut off for a period of time. There is another way across involving Oldsmar as I recall but things could get very dicey for the good folks in St Pete and Tampa
Howard Frankland. But yeah, the HF was damaged by Helene, the CCC had all kinds of debris but I don't know it if took damage, and the Gandy was fine I think. I wouldn't be surprised if part of the Frankland gets washed out completely.

Not a good week to be a bridge in Tampa Bay.
 
Inner eye is falling apart. This might be a good thing if it wasnt quite so early. Might go for a second peak tomorrow.

A second peak more or less ensures cat 5 levels of storm surge to make the shore.
The eye wall is going to reboot a few times on the way to the Florida Coast, pretty normal in Hurricanes
 
Inner eye is falling apart. This might be a good thing if it wasnt quite so early. Might go for a second peak tomorrow.

A second peak more or less ensures cat 5 levels of storm surge to make the shore.
The eye wall is going to reboot a few times on the way to the Florida Coast, pretty normal in Hurricanes
The timing is very important and drives a large variability in the intensity of the damage in one spot vs the spread.
 
Inner eye is falling apart. This might be a good thing if it wasnt quite so early. Might go for a second peak tomorrow.

A second peak more or less ensures cat 5 levels of storm surge to make the shore.
The eye wall is going to reboot a few times on the way to the Florida Coast, pretty normal in Hurricanes
The timing is very important and drives a large variability in the intensity of the damage in one spot vs the spread.
Very true, having lived on the water my whole life the difference between a high tide/low tide landfall could be 5-10 feet of surge, probably more with the wind
 
Haven't had much time to read/watch the last day or two. Was just catching up and I'm literally sick to my stomach for what people are going to go through. My brother had 5 feet of water in his house from Helene. I don't know if the structure will even withstand double that. Another good friend is expecting to lose his house, water was just short of getting in from Helene, but he's down near the water in St. Pete.

Everyone here are in my thoughts. Hoping for the best for you.
 
All indications seem to be this won't hit as a category 5, but that could potentially be worse, as it weakens, it spreads - so slightly lower winds, but across as wider path.


Stay as safe as you can folks.
Right. Intensity will drop but the size of the storm will grow.
They are also saying the storm surge won't decrease.

Working in Network Operations for a huge Telecom this is a gut punch as we've been working round the clock and still have a ton of cell sites and enterprise customers out of service in North and South Carolina 11 days ongoing.
I expect it will look much like Ike's storm surge, which was ugly. Crystal Beach disappeared. Some people just wouldn't go. That was the first time I heard emergency people tell those that wouldn't leave to write their info in marker on themselves so those who found them would be able to tell who they were. It took some time to find everybody.
 
It’s nearly 4 AM on I-75 outside of Gainesville, and for miles, the shoulder is packed with trucks and cars. Some are stranded, others are just parked with people sleeping. I’ve never seen anything like it.

 
It’s nearly 4 AM on I-75 outside of Gainesville, and for miles, the shoulder is packed with trucks and cars. Some are stranded, others are just parked with people sleeping. I’ve never seen anything like it.

And that's why I hate to see folks evacuate unless absolutely necessary, they get a lot of people out on the road into these massive panic traffic jams
That's nuts. I figured in the overnight hours that traffic would calm down and some folks that need to evacuate would be able to do so without this much mayhem

-Storm won't be arriving until Wednesday, still plenty of time for some folks to leave today
I was all over Broward and Palm Beach yesterday, Martin County too and I saw a lot of worry that I don't typically see.
We're not even in the direct path and people have cleared out a lot of the grocery stores around here already, I imagine its far worse in Central Florida right now and along the West Coast

I don't mean to be the prayers guy but I'm praying this storm weakens a bit before landfall, even more than that would be picking up some speed
It was 3 mph, then it was maybe 5 mph, a good healthy 15+ mph clip so this thing just keeps on moving and doesn't hang out like it has on top of Mexico
Originally this storm was going to hit on Tuesday, now maybe Wed or early Thurs Morning, lot of time out over the warm open waters
Storm surge is going to be the destroyer from this hurricane, you can't stand in 10 or 15 feet of water, the rooftop rescues we might see along the shores of St Pete and Tampa Bay
 
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For whatever reason it has not stopped raining around here in South Florida for several days now
Especially along the Coastline, it just has not stopped raining, we are soaked and we're getting more of it today
 
I'm not in a hurricane zone, but Katrina scarred me anyway and I'm hoping everyone anywhere near the coast in the Tampa area is getting the hell out.

Just saw an aerial image of the main hospital/trauma center in that area and... it's literally on an island sitting right at sea level -- surrounded by canals/water. They have 15' storm surge fencing, but my stomach still rolled at seeing just how exposed stuff is down there.

I'm not a prayer, but I'm pulling hard for all of you down there to do all the smart things.
 
I feel like we should have a list of Dos and Don'ts during hurricanes/major natural events and have it pinned somewhere. Things like:

DO take pictures of your house, contents, etc before the hurricane comes through.
DON'T run your generator in your house/garage. Make sure it's outside.
DO have enough water/food/non-refrigerated snacks for when the power goes out.
DO have enough of your prescriptions on hand.
DO have a copy of your insurance policy along with important numbers/contacts. Tell loved ones where you will be when the storm hits.

etc
etc
 
For whatever reason it has not stopped raining around here in South Florida for several days now
Especially along the Coastline, it just has not stopped raining, we are soaked and we're getting more of it today
I think it's been raining since Thursday. That's when I got soaked on my morning walk. It started raining around 6am and really hasn't let up.
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
I thought I remember you working in insurance, correct?

I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the way they do manufactured/mobile home insurance where they write policies that don't cover 100% of loss. It could be something like 40% if it's a total loss.

I live in an older FL community. It's not a 55 plus community but it pretty much is. Quite a few people have their homes paid off and choose to essentially self-insure and not pay the high insurance premiums. I think it's horrible idea but interesting idea nonetheless.
 
And that's why I hate to see folks evacuate unless absolutely necessary, they get a lot of people out on the road into these massive panic traffic jams
Everybody has their own reason to go and in their mind it’s absolutely necessary. For me I am not ever putting my son through a hurricane like this.
I understand, you evacuated out of Florida or to higher ground? Stay Safe bud
How would you like to have a son who is already a homeowner in St Pete and won't leave for a variety of reasons that are hard to explain
-He is worried about looting and I had to have a stern discussion with him, it bothered me that he was truly worried about some electronics in his house

He has a band of merry friends and they all grew up together...he has an 11,000 watt generator once the power is cut, he's very confident he will be alright.
His grandparents being there was a sticking point but it looks like they are going to pack up the Winnebago and head North so that's one less thing off his plate

I also would caution folks that have watched Helene, this is not going to be like Western Carolina so flush that.
That situation is completely different, how many folks died in Cedar Key and Perry, FL where the storm made landfall?
I don't expect there to be a lot of deaths from this storm, but I think there will a lot of suffering and loss of property and personals that will mentally take a toll on folks
 
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For whatever reason it has not stopped raining around here in South Florida for several days now
Especially along the Coastline, it just has not stopped raining, we are soaked and we're getting more of it today
I think it's been raining since Thursday. That's when I got soaked on my morning walk. It started raining around 6am and really hasn't let up.
It rained on and off several days going back to last Thur/Fri, my tennis matches have all been canceled since last Friday, just a rain out every day, morning/afternoon, evening
Just haven't been able to get out there and now it's Tuesday and it's still raining

-Ironically when the storm finally hits on Wed/Thurs, weather will improve here. I don't think they are calling for more than a couple inches of rain and 30-40 mph gusts around here in the Palm Beach/South FL area, I'm right on the border of what you would say is the start of the Treasure Coast on the East side heading North
I was kinda shocked to see folks boarding up, stores emptied out, just a lot more panic than I typically see and it's not even close to a direct hit around here
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
I thought I remember you working in insurance, correct?

I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the way they do manufactured/mobile home insurance where they write policies that don't cover 100% of loss. It could be something like 40% if it's a total loss.

I live in an older FL community. It's not a 55 plus community but it pretty much is. Quite a few people have their homes paid off and choose to essentially self-insure and not pay the high insurance premiums. I think it's horrible idea but interesting idea nonetheless.
No, not insurance. Just a hunch based on how they operate. It's not a profitable state to be in moving forward. It's a major loss and if they aren't allowed to recoup from other states they will leave. Capitalism!
 
understand, you evacuated out of Florida or to higher ground? Stay Safe bud
How would you like to have a son who is already a homeowner in St Pete and won't leave for a variety of reasons that are hard to explain
We went to Georgia. My home is in the last evac group but I have an anxious son and he is now laughing playing foosball at this air bnb instead of potentially watching his roof rip off. Worth every dollar and time we spent driving.

Hope your son is safe. I’m sure he’s relatively young - we both know how stubborn that age is. Looting is the least of his worries. If the worst that happens to me is my tv and some other stuff is gone that is a huge win.
 
Son in St Pete, bought home in Spring '23 and Dad did not help him however...wife and I helped them put in Hurricane Impact windows after they closed
We don't buy him cars or TVs or video game systems, he's very self sufficient almost to a fault
But we convinced them to let us help and put in the Hurricane impact windows and I still asked him to put up plywood over the 2 bedroom windows that have the most exposure
One of his buddies brought back enough plywood from Home Depot for all of them so they all helped each other batten down the hatches.

-It does make me feel a little easier
His neighbor across the street and right next to him on the left -BOTH of them already vacated and exchanged numbers with him so they could find out what happens after
The neighbor to his right is staying, he has a well trained pit bull that is his best friend in life, he's not going anywhere
I do think he's going to see flooding like he's never seen. He sits in Zone "C" near the St Pete/Clearwater section, he's not right in downtown St Pete
I don't think the Pier is gonna survive or do well in this and I think downtown, all the bars/clubs and restaurants, not good
 
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What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
It's going to have to go to something like flood insurance where it's just run by the government because nobody will insure FL.
 
understand, you evacuated out of Florida or to higher ground? Stay Safe bud
How would you like to have a son who is already a homeowner in St Pete and won't leave for a variety of reasons that are hard to explain
We went to Georgia. My home is in the last evac group but I have an anxious son and he is now laughing playing foosball at this air bnb instead of potentially watching his roof rip off. Worth every dollar and time we spent driving.

Hope your son is safe. I’m sure he’s relatively young - we both know how stubborn that age is. Looting is the least of his worries. If the worst that happens to me is my tv and some other stuff is gone that is a huge win.
25 and he knows it all
:wink:

-It's coming just you wait...actually enjoy the time you have right now. I missed out on his early life, lucky to have him in my daily life now
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
It's going to have to go to something like flood insurance where it's just run by the government because nobody will insure FL.
Run by the government with what money? Or are we just gonna give free houses to people on the beach now?
 
Good explanation of ERC and storm surge/etc. Main point: if told to evacuate and you can, do.

:thumbup:

Eyewall Replacement Cycle, common in most Hurricanes but especially in the stronger ones as a Hurricane cannot maintain the top end intensity
They project it to increase in intensity to a Cat-5 before it ever enters into any kind of shearing from the North

They continue to show neighborhoods along the coast with piles of debris in the front yards that has not been scooped up and taken away from Helene
That's a major problem
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
It's going to have to go to something like flood insurance where it's just run by the government because nobody will insure FL.
Run by the government with what money? Or are we just gonna give free houses to people on the beach now?
The federal government has long been subsidizing insurance for these homes.
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
I thought I remember you working in insurance, correct?

I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the way they do manufactured/mobile home insurance where they write policies that don't cover 100% of loss. It could be something like 40% if it's a total loss.

I live in an older FL community. It's not a 55 plus community but it pretty much is. Quite a few people have their homes paid off and choose to essentially self-insure and not pay the high insurance premiums. I think it's horrible idea but interesting idea nonetheless.
No, not insurance. Just a hunch based on how they operate. It's not a profitable state to be in moving forward. It's a major loss and if they aren't allowed to recoup from other states they will leave. Capitalism!
This is how it should be. It seems to me that it is about time to stop building houses in low-lying coastal regions that are prone to hurricanes. Also, we should probably discourage people from building houses in places that are subject to high wildfire risk.

We should want insurance companies to start pricing in this stuff. If they can't write profitable insurance policies, then people who live there need to understand the underlying risks and be ready to self-insure.

The stuff in NC was a freak event that it makes sense to insure against. "Hurricane season" and "wildfire season" are completely predictable and more dangerous than they were 50 years ago. Those are not freak events. "Hurricane season" is just "fall."
 
What is going to happen to the Florida insurance industry?
Increase rates countrywide to offset claims.
Can't do that. Have to prove rates need an increase in each individual state.
I suspect we'll just see most all major insurance carriers pulling out of Florida entirely.
I thought I remember you working in insurance, correct?

I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the way they do manufactured/mobile home insurance where they write policies that don't cover 100% of loss. It could be something like 40% if it's a total loss.

I live in an older FL community. It's not a 55 plus community but it pretty much is. Quite a few people have their homes paid off and choose to essentially self-insure and not pay the high insurance premiums. I think it's horrible idea but interesting idea nonetheless.
No, not insurance. Just a hunch based on how they operate. It's not a profitable state to be in moving forward. It's a major loss and if they aren't allowed to recoup from other states they will leave. Capitalism!
This is how it should be. It seems to me that it is about time to stop building houses in low-lying coastal regions that are prone to hurricanes. Also, we should probably discourage people from building houses in places that are subject to high wildfire risk.

We should want insurance companies to start pricing in this stuff. If they can't write profitable insurance policies, then people who live there need to understand the underlying risks and be ready to self-insure.

The stuff in NC was a freak event that it makes sense to insure against. "Hurricane season" and "wildfire season" are completely predictable and more dangerous than they were 50 years ago. Those are not freak events. "Hurricane season" is just "fall."
I live in NC and it concerns me to read articles speculating that rates statewide will increase due to Helene and follow it up with how Climate change is making weather more extreme and unpredictable, so insurance companies will begin factoring in "Unpredictable weather events" into rates.
 
For anyone fleeing Florida, you would be much better served with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Route_441 using 441
We usually jump on about Lake City but I think as early as Ocala you can jump over on to it and get off the Interstate
I-75 has been reported as a parking lot as recent as this morning

Along I-95, I can only imagine the lines trying to get in and out of the "Buc'ees"
I don't think there is one along 75 until you get up into Georgia around Warner Robbins
 

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