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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Post Helene and Milton (1 Viewer)

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Since this pass the CB have popped up on the east side. While a Hurricane isn't expected until tomorrow evening. It has all the look of forming roughly about halftime of the first games tomorrow.
 
This Milton looks like it's gonna be a problem, going right thru the middle of the State?
Speed of the storm will be a factor, the longer it stays the worse the rain totals will be.

-Calling for half a foot+ of rain on the East Coast - Treasure Coast and the storm is making landfall on the Gulf/West Coast side of the State, that doesn't sound good

Early models have it coming right thru Tampa Bay, that's gonna be a problem when folks haven't finished clearing out from the last storm
Shore Acres in St Pete where residents are giving away homes right now that sustained storm damage from Helene, there really won't be any homes there this time around if this thing drives straight thru there.

The storm surge from a direct hit Cat -2/3, still talking 110+ mph winds, 8-10 feet of water?
How much of Pinellas County going under water?
MoP Jr lives there, I'm on stand by right now. Either I gotta help him board up or bring him and his family down here to South Florida to ride this out
They have the entire State in the cone at the moment, that shouldn't be as wide by the time say Monday rolls around but all the models have this thing going thru Tampa Bay
Even if it ends up a little North of there, have family in Hernando County, that's not good either
 
I live in the upstate part of SC(Greenville county about 12 miles from the NC border).

Well, that sucked.

The water from the storm somehow found it's way into our septic tank and filled it up. So on Friday morning(the 27th), we had no power and had to be very prudent about using water of any kind.

The septic people were here yesterday morning, and power came on yesterday late afternoon. Today we got internet back.

The upstate part of SC got slammed. Bad. 5 of my tall spruce trees fell on my neighbors shed and smashed his fence. Thankfully he's a pretty cool guy, and we're on good terms. All day Saturday and Sunday was spent playing lumberjack and fence mender/builder.

I am hearing horror stories coming out of Asheville and other parts of Western NC.
 
Treasure Island, one of my favorite old school Florida beach spots just North of St Pete Beach, they have been under sand all week from Helene, they haven't been able to really function that well and now they are going to get flooded and covered in several feet of sand again, this is where the "Thunderbird Motel/Hotel" sits and there's a lot of little local businesses around there.

GiGi's Pizza/Italian is right there across from the beach and has some cool bars/vibes right around it, hate to see all this washed away from another Hurricane
I would be getting sand bags right now if I were near the water in St Pete or Tampa, you got Sun/Mon basically to batten down the hatches

Tampa General Hospital has been boasting about their "Aqua-Fence" it might get tested even harder in this next storm
 
Last edited:
Hastur said:
I live in the upstate part of SC(Greenville county about 12 miles from the NC border).

Well, that sucked.

The water from the storm somehow found it's way into our septic tank and filled it up. So on Friday morning(the 27th), we had no power and had to be very prudent about using water of any kind.

The septic people were here yesterday morning, and power came on yesterday late afternoon. Today we got internet back.

The upstate part of SC got slammed. Bad. 5 of my tall spruce trees fell on my neighbors shed and smashed his fence. Thankfully he's a pretty cool guy, and we're on good terms. All day Saturday and Sunday was spent playing lumberjack and fence mender/builder.

I am hearing horror stories coming out of Asheville and other parts of Western NC.
Click to expand...
Friends in the Greenville area or North of there, just about an hour outside of Asheville?
He describes it as pretty hellish the last week, all we see is Asheville, Marshall, Hot Springs, Chimney Rock and Western Carolina but other places have been hit very hard as well
-I hope you and your family are safe, hope you get the essentials back on if they aren't already, makes us all grateful for what we have when we have it

I think people need to realize that these roads and infrastructure are not likely to be fixed quickly, it's time to start relocating people like they had to do in Katrina
And maybe nobody gets relocated which would be best but maybe if folks start talking about it, maybe things will speed up because I still think a lot of folks don't realize how bad it is

-I've seen many tornados and the aftermath which looks devastating to me but typically I've not been in the cities where they occur and really don't know anyone there
I can't say that about Western Carolina, South Carolina and parts of Georgia that I frequent more than once a year, it's been very difficult to watch these people suffering not to mention all my fellow Floridians in Tampa Bay, St Pete, Cedar Key, Perry/Tallahassee and not feel depressed...and then hear another storm is going to barrel right thru the heart of Florida

It's not gonna be a fun week
 
Ministry of Pain said:
This Milton looks like it's gonna be a problem, going right thru the middle of the State?
Speed of the storm will be a factor, the longer it stays the worse the rain totals will be.

-Calling for half a foot+ of rain on the East Coast - Treasure Coast and the storm is making landfall on the Gulf/West Coast side of the State, that doesn't sound good

Early models have it coming right thru Tampa Bay, that's gonna be a problem when folks haven't finished clearing out from the last storm
Shore Acres in St Pete where residents are giving away homes right now that sustained storm damage from Helene, there really won't be any homes there this time around if this thing drives straight thru there.

The storm surge from a direct hit Cat -2/3, still talking 110+ mph winds, 8-10 feet of water?
How much of Pinellas County going under water?
MoP Jr lives there, I'm on stand by right now. Either I gotta help him board up or bring him and his family down here to South Florida to ride this out
They have the entire State in the cone at the moment, that shouldn't be as wide by the time say Monday rolls around but all the models have this thing going thru Tampa Bay
Even if it ends up a little North of there, have family in Hernando County, that's not good either
Click to expand...

The size of the cone is not variable by storm, the same cone size was in use for Helene, for example. The cone only changes sizes between seasons.

That being said the speed of the hurricane forecast can impact the perception of size, as a faster storm by definition pushes a narrower cone cross section deeper into the timeline.
 
culdeus said:
Ministry of Pain said:
This Milton looks like it's gonna be a problem, going right thru the middle of the State?
Speed of the storm will be a factor, the longer it stays the worse the rain totals will be.

-Calling for half a foot+ of rain on the East Coast - Treasure Coast and the storm is making landfall on the Gulf/West Coast side of the State, that doesn't sound good

Early models have it coming right thru Tampa Bay, that's gonna be a problem when folks haven't finished clearing out from the last storm
Shore Acres in St Pete where residents are giving away homes right now that sustained storm damage from Helene, there really won't be any homes there this time around if this thing drives straight thru there.

The storm surge from a direct hit Cat -2/3, still talking 110+ mph winds, 8-10 feet of water?
How much of Pinellas County going under water?
MoP Jr lives there, I'm on stand by right now. Either I gotta help him board up or bring him and his family down here to South Florida to ride this out
They have the entire State in the cone at the moment, that shouldn't be as wide by the time say Monday rolls around but all the models have this thing going thru Tampa Bay
Even if it ends up a little North of there, have family in Hernando County, that's not good either
Click to expand...

The size of the cone is not variable by storm, the same cone size was in use for Helene, for example. The cone only changes sizes between seasons.

That being said the speed of the hurricane forecast can impact the perception of size, as a faster storm by definition pushes a narrower cone cross section deeper into the timeline.
Click to expand...
Currently moving at 3 mph
 
Milton really is a Pacific storm. There has never been a Pacific hurricane make landfall on the conus at anything higher than cat 2. So this looks to be another record broken by the current forecast
 
Flights for Today

```
September 6, 2024

Flight One - Teal 71
Plane: WC-130J
Take Off: 11:30 AM EDT
From: KBIX
Fix Time: 2:00 PM EDT
Time on Station: 1:30 PM EDT - 5:00 PM EDT
Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet

Flight Two - NOAA 49 - Gonzo
Plane: Gulfstream G-IV
Take Off: 1:30 PM EDT
From: KLAL
Fix Time: N/A
Time on Station: N/A
Altitudes: 41,000 - 45,000 Feet
Remarks: Synoptic Surveillance

Flight Three - NOAA 43 - Miss Piggy
Plane: WP-3D
Take Off: 4:00 PM EDT
From: KLAL
Fix Time: 8:00 PM EDT
Time on Station: 5:45 PM EDT - 11:45 PM EDT
Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet
Remarks: Tail Doppler Radar

Flight Four - Teal 72
Plane: WC-1302
Take Off: 5:00 PM EDT
From: KBIX
Fix Time: 7:30 PM EDT, 1:30 AM EDT
Time on Station: 7:00 PM EDT - 1:30 AM EDT
Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet```
Click to expand...
 
Rapid intensification of Milton likely to begin soon. If the models are right this one is going to be big but may actually lose some strength before landfall.
 
beer 30 said:
Chemical X said:
The government annually spends $25billion on NASA’s budget. It’s not a political football, so no one really cares. FYI, $25billion is less than a 1/2% of our entire budget. I don’t want to get into trouble or a this and that but, every time there is a one off disaster, we can not expect the government to print money to cover losses. When does it stop? Fires? Hurricanes? Floods? Maybe I am still sullied by the whole PPP thing. The entire situation sucks all around, but blaming the government for what they are and aren’t doing is a rinse repeat effort that really does nothing. My .02.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with you. I think you see this a lot with these large emergency response events like Helene. We're never prepared for the immediate aftermath because each one is unique and different. What happened to New Orleans is completely different than what is happening in the mountains. It takes time to move the equipment they need to address the needs there and you need to make roads as you go. Can we do better? Yea absolutely and they will take what they learn from this and hopefully improve the response plan just like they did after Katrina.

Unfortunately people are dying waiting on the government to ride in and save the day. I'm sorry to say that isn't going to happen no matter how much money you give FEMA. You have to plan your survival, then your neighborhood needs to plan their survival then your community and on and on. The first 3-5 days of any disaster you should just plan to be on your own because chances are good, other than local resources, nobody is coming to save you. Can you be ready for everything? No, especially in an area where 90% of the revenue is generated by tourism. A lot of the folks in the mountains are there on vacation. You aren't packing pallets of water, MRE's and packs of TP for a weekend in the mountains. It's a **** situation but that's how disasters work. They don't ever seem to be convenient.
Click to expand...
Both my sister and my brother in law lost their houses in natural disasters. My sister in a hurricane. BIL in the Maui fires. FEMA is there but it’s not a catch all safety net. It’s not some magic fairy that just makes everything better. My sister has been through multiple mega hurricanes. She lived on St. John in the USVI for 30+ years. She has been through multiple category 5 direct hits. Hugo, Marylyn, Irma and Maria. All caused massive damage. Marylyn was the worst with 20% ending up homeless. My sister had no power for almost a month. She fed emergency responders out of her restaurant for weeks. There was a curfew at sunset for over a month. But the double whammy of Irma and Maria merely weeks apart were the ones that destroyed her house. It was literally moved off the foundation. FEMA helps but it’s still a govt agency that is responding to thousands if not millions of claims. In the islands they are the butt of many jokes.

Moral of the story, FEMA is no different than the DMV
 
I'll never understand the thought process of people which think there are millions of government people on standby to instantly, without hesitation put their life back together from a major weather event.

I also don't comprehend the thought process that the government should insure or even care if people get their houses wiped off a barrier island or somewhere you could hit a cold topped 7 iron into a body of salt water but here we are.

The second really causes the frustration of the first. At some point we just gotta let some areas go. It's not like we don't know which ones these are.
 
3C's said:
Rapid intensification of Milton likely to begin soon. If the models are right this one is going to be big but may actually lose some strength before landfall.
Click to expand...
Katrina lost strength before landfall.

An intake of dry air right before landfall would spread the wind field out, over more areas where debris is laying in streets in piles.

12z GFS is the nightmare situation.

NHC Update

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

Burg is normally pretty conservative to hear him talking 4/5 is not in a word, ideal.

 
culdeus said:
3C's said:
Rapid intensification of Milton likely to begin soon. If the models are right this one is going to be big but may actually lose some strength before landfall.
Click to expand...
Katrina lost strength before landfall.

An intake of dry air right before landfall would spread the wind field out, over more areas where debris is laying in streets in piles.

12z GFS is the nightmare situation.

NHC Update

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

Burg is normally pretty conservative to hear him talking 4/5 is not in a word, ideal.

Click to expand...
Ok.
 
Son installed Hurricane impact windows when he bought his house in St Pete
Bought them himself thru Home Depot and installed them, yeah that makes me a little happier at the moment
It just looks worse and worse for the Gulf side of Florida right now

It's been pouring all day in South Florida, not sure how it relates to a Hurricane off the Coast of Mexico but it's already wet and partially flooded here in South Florida
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Son installed Hurricane impact windows when he bought his house in St Pete
Bought them himself thru Home Depot and installed them, yeah that makes me a little happier at the moment
It just looks worse and worse for the Gulf side of Florida right now

It's been pouring all day in South Florida, not sure how it relates to a Hurricane off the Coast of Mexico but it's already wet and partially flooded here in South Florida
Click to expand...

Totally separate storm system in the south causing all the rain. I think that's part of the danger for Milton is that, unrelated to Milton, it's going to be really wet in the days leading up to the storm too.
 
massraider said:
The #Florida Division of Emergency Management is preparing for the largest evacuation since 2017 (Irma), according to Director Kevin Guthrie. #Tampa, #fortmyers, #Naples, you are in the cone! Evacuation orders are coming.

x.com

x.com x.com
Click to expand...

Is it mostly because Helene is so fresh in everyone's mind? We've had a lot of storms much larger than this in Florida that people prepared less for, especially inland where people have historically just shrugged off caring about hurricanes.

We have a place in Orlando, for instance. Historically no one in Orlando has worried about hurricanes at all. It's always been "oh no, a hurricane, time to buy some booze and throw a big hurricane BBQ LOL!!". That was true of Ian two years ago as well, which was at least as large as this one and similarly on a direct path for Orlando.

But people are legit freaking out a bit even in Orlando this time, even though Orlando never has problems with hurricanes. Is it just the timing that Helene ended up being so much worse than expected in an area that wasn't typical that has people taking it so much more seriously this time?
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Son installed Hurricane impact windows when he bought his house in St Pete
Bought them himself thru Home Depot and installed them, yeah that makes me a little happier at the moment
It just looks worse and worse for the Gulf side of Florida right now

It's been pouring all day in South Florida, not sure how it relates to a Hurricane off the Coast of Mexico but it's already wet and partially flooded here in South Florida
Click to expand...

Totally separate storm system in the south causing all the rain. I think that's part of the danger for Milton is that, unrelated to Milton, it's going to be really wet in the days leading up to the storm too.
Click to expand...
So all of this

Is unrelated?
 
Ministry of Pain said:
FreeBaGeL said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Son installed Hurricane impact windows when he bought his house in St Pete
Bought them himself thru Home Depot and installed them, yeah that makes me a little happier at the moment
It just looks worse and worse for the Gulf side of Florida right now

It's been pouring all day in South Florida, not sure how it relates to a Hurricane off the Coast of Mexico but it's already wet and partially flooded here in South Florida
Click to expand...

Totally separate storm system in the south causing all the rain. I think that's part of the danger for Milton is that, unrelated to Milton, it's going to be really wet in the days leading up to the storm too.
Click to expand...
So all of this

Is unrelated?
Click to expand...

That's my understanding, yes. I don't have a link or anything but coincidentally I was watching a weather segment on this earlier today where they were talking about a totally separate storm system that has been coming from the south for days that would pre-soak the area.

ETA: I did find this image on Fox Weather with a quick search
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Ministry of Pain said:
FreeBaGeL said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Son installed Hurricane impact windows when he bought his house in St Pete
Bought them himself thru Home Depot and installed them, yeah that makes me a little happier at the moment
It just looks worse and worse for the Gulf side of Florida right now

It's been pouring all day in South Florida, not sure how it relates to a Hurricane off the Coast of Mexico but it's already wet and partially flooded here in South Florida
Click to expand...

Totally separate storm system in the south causing all the rain. I think that's part of the danger for Milton is that, unrelated to Milton, it's going to be really wet in the days leading up to the storm too.
Click to expand...
So all of this

Is unrelated?
Click to expand...

That's my understanding, yes. I don't have a link or anything but coincidentally I was watching a weather segment on this earlier today where they were talking about a totally separate storm system that has been coming from the south for days that would pre-soak the area.

ETA: I did find this image on Fox Weather with a quick search
Click to expand...
Fox 13 out of Tampa has been my go to for weather around there
Paul Dellegotto? Try the old Sombrero when he was first on for Fox 13 around there
 
FreeBaGeL said:
massraider said:
The #Florida Division of Emergency Management is preparing for the largest evacuation since 2017 (Irma), according to Director Kevin Guthrie. #Tampa, #fortmyers, #Naples, you are in the cone! Evacuation orders are coming.

x.com

x.com x.com
Click to expand...

Is it mostly because Helene is so fresh in everyone's mind? We've had a lot of storms much larger than this in Florida that people prepared less for, especially inland where people have historically just shrugged off caring about hurricanes.

We have a place in Orlando, for instance. Historically no one in Orlando has worried about hurricanes at all. It's always been "oh no, a hurricane, time to buy some booze and throw a big hurricane BBQ LOL!!". That was true of Ian two years ago as well, which was at least as large as this one and similarly on a direct path for Orlando.

But people are legit freaking out a bit even in Orlando this time, even though Orlando never has problems with hurricanes. Is it just the timing that Helene ended up being so much worse than expected in an area that wasn't typical that has people taking it so much more seriously this time?
Click to expand...
Yea I was born and raised in Orlando and we were never really concerned until 2004. Before that Central Florida hadn't really been affected by Hurricane since Donna and that was 1960 I believe. So in that time central Floridians became a little lackadaisical about them.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
We have a place in Orlando, for instance. Historically no one in Orlando has worried about hurricanes at all. It's always been "oh no, a hurricane, time to buy some booze and throw a big hurricane BBQ LOL!!". That was true of Ian two years ago as well, which was at least as large as this one and similarly on a direct path for Orlando.
Click to expand...
Ian flooded my son out of his apartment and totaled my daughter’s car on the NE side of Orlando (Winter Park), so results vary.
 
My Aunt lives in Palmetto and is heading to Pigeon Forge for a few days to wait it out. She is in a new subdivision that sits up higher so hoping to come back to a house.
 
massraider said:
The #Florida Division of Emergency Management is preparing for the largest evacuation since 2017 (Irma), according to Director Kevin Guthrie. #Tampa, #fortmyers, #Naples, you are in the cone! Evacuation orders are coming.

x.com

x.com x.com
Click to expand...
Fort Myers Beach issued an evacuation effective 3 PM tomorrow. No other cities yet but schools in Lee and Collier County (where Fort Myers and Naples are) closed for Monday through Thursday.
 
Silly question…do electric shutters have some sort of backup battery inside them in case you lose power?

We have the kind that go up and down via a light switch inside. I was just thinking that if we keep them down (including the front door one) and the power goes out, we could be trapped inside. 😄
 
eoMMan said:
Silly question…do electric shutters have some sort of backup battery inside them in case you lose power?

We have the kind that go up and down via a light switch inside. I was just thinking that if we keep them down (including the front door one) and the power goes out, we could be trapped inside. 😄
Click to expand...
There should be a manual override- a hand crank or somesuch. Now is the time to find out. Otherwise, you end up with the Star Trek problem of having to cut through the wall.
 
Milton really has his act together now. Cat 3 already with cat 4 not far behind.

Copy/paste from a weather geek: I can not stress enough how dangerous Milton is becoming. Those living from Cedar Key to Naples, have your preparations complete by tomorrow afternoon. Those living along the immediate coast, in a storm surge prone area, or inland along a body of water should evacuate. Do not wait until the last possible opportunity to do so.
 
The main thing I notice this morning is a very well defined eye that is going to feed off the energy in that warm water, it feels like it's been sitting right off the coast of Mexico for like a good 2-3-4 days now and intensifies from a 40-50 mph TS to a Cat-3+ in less than 24 hours, no doubt it's going to reach wind speeds of 150+ mph for at least some period of time

-They are saying there will be some shearing but when and how much that weakens what will be an intense storm is anyone's guess.
This one is more compact as compared to Helene so that's good and bad. In one sense it's good because maybe not as many people get hit or impacted
But the flip side is a compact storm is more defined and intense and a little shearing isn't gonna slow it down much
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was not a "large" storm but it was tight, compact and full of power when it made landfall in Miami just North of Homestead and was intensifying as it hit FL
The Bahamas managed to knock Andrew down to.a Cat-4 but it was a 5 when it hit Florida

Milton doesn't look like it has much to stop it and nothing ahead of it but warm flat water all the way to the Florida Coast
Cantore already setting up shop in Tampa, showing debris from Helene that still is just sitting around in neighborhoods and he's on Davis Island right now

Looks like the latest track is showing it coming right across Pinellas/St Pete, my son has a home there, he's not right on the water but still I am very concerned
He doesn't want to leave his house and all his belongings, I've tried to explain what is replaceable and what isn't. He's not in a mandatory evacuation zone, not yet

Keep your tanks full of gas
 
Maybe some small optimism that there are still forecasts pushing it a little north, and no agreement yet on what happens after it gets into less favorable conditions? Sometimes things that haven't happened in a long time don't happen this time either, as the forces that kept them at bay for so long do their thing again.

Either way, hope all you folks on FL are doing what you need to do and take care of yourselves.
 
Zone A, AB and likely Zone B will all get evacuation orders, there are gonna be millions asked to leave?
Where are these people suppose to go exactly?

Jim Cantore asked the Hillsborough Manager/Police Chief if they have ever had to evacuate Zone C and there simply wasn't an answer for that question
I really hope everyone over prepares and then are spared but that scenario seems unlikely right now

And it's not just Tampa Bay, there's plenty of real estate North and South of there fixing to get hit hard with this
 
Update on Milton
Cat-4 with 150 MPH sustained winds
My Lord

-The eye is very well defined, this thing might reach speeds we don't see often, like maybe 175+ mph before it peaks
 
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