*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[adonis]

Man, those old cranky dudes with underlying health issues are really making out in this new world

Yeah and all they have to do in return is face death with at every moment.

 

[msommer]

How could they rule out either the two hands touching during the passing or anything being transferred through a small cough, etc?

The article did not state that they did

 

[msommer]

They talked to both parties.  Apparently they were sitting at different tables with their backs to each other and one asked for a saltshaker from the other table.

Not the same as ruling out that anything other than the salt shaker was the medium of infection

 

[shader]

Sorry I didn't mean to single you out I've seen others say it to.  I don't think anyone here is advocating opening everything up at the same time by a certain day.  Once we get to the point it's going to be a long process that's all I'm trying to say.

I think it's interesting to discuss exactly what "opening things back up" means?

Where I live, I can practically do anything I want.  I can go to the store, get food from restaurants (can't dine in), etc. 

So much of what is closed down is entertainment.  Malls, movie theaters, clothing stores, Disney World, etc.

The corporate world can suck it up and work from home.  If your job relies on a computer, you can do it at home.  If you can't, your company should be providing access.  Business meetings can all be zoom for awhile.  Deal with it. 

Churches are closed and should remain closed while there is danger.

Sporting events are pure entertainment and should remain closed to fans for at least 3-4 months.

The airline industry is going to get hammered.  Even when it opens up, you have to imagine that many companies are going to realize that so much of the travel they paid for was a waste of money.  I know that's the case where I work.

So what really is "opening it back up"? (no right or wrong answer, just think it's an interesting discussion)

 

[JAA]

Why after this week? What happened this week to make you think we are all that much to getting back to normal?

Why does this keep coming up?  Starting to open some things up is a long ways from getting back to normal.  When things start to open back up, and we're still a ways from that, it's going to be a long process.  I'd imagine it will start with certain parts of the country, maybe more rural or places less impacted by the virus.  Or it may be certain age groups,  I don't know.  That's well above my pay grade.  That's why I think discussions need to be happening now on the best way of starting the process, whenever that may be.

I think its reasonable to conclude that those conversations happen every day.  In addition, I would wager the folks leading this have metrics and trends which will guide them into exactly what you describe.

Ill conclude with that just because you dont hear the specific conversations, it doesnt mean those conversations arent happening.

 

[Kal El]

Last night my 11 year-old son, who likes to share his feelings right around bedtime, told me "I think that I'm starting to lose my mind a little bit."   He was completely sincere -- he's struggling a lot with being quarantined.  The lack of ability to spend time with his friends is tough -- even though he's an introvert -- and his mental health is slipping a bit each week.  Luckily, he has a ton of support and will be fine.  But it's really tough to hear your kid talk that way.

My kids are concerned about it as well, so we've had talks about what we're doing to try and stay safe, and we've explained that this is not going to go on forever, and they're understanding, albeit still impatient.

 

[parasaurolophus]

OK, maybe I misworded. The more apt question was why after this past week did his thinking change? 

It is another week's worth of data, or another week of being sick of being at home, or another week unemployed without any money coming in, or another week where they are depressed and maybe put on some pounds. 

Wait until next week. Or the week after. Stay at home will have the tide turned against it a little more each week. 

 

[the moops]

It is another week's worth of data, or another week of being sick of being at home, or another week unemployed without any money coming in, or another week where they are depressed and maybe put on some pounds. 

Wait until next week. Or the week after. Stay at home will have the tide turned against it a little more each week. 

OK - I was reading it that there was some sharp decline in cases, or some major progress in treatment, thsat made him change his mind

 

[ericttspikes]

This article is a must-read.

"In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness."

I don't understand what absolutisms like this accomplish at this point. Maybe nothing will ever be normal again. Maybe no one will leave their houses for years, but it's tough believe that will be the case. The flu vaccine wasn't widely available until 1945. There was no mass testing apparatus or digital surveillance, and yet somehow society and economies functioned and thrived after the deadliest pandemic in history. I view all those things as added bonuses that our advanced society can apply, but there was a return to normal without any of those things happening in the past. Maybe this time will be really different, but we've done this before.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I think it's interesting to discuss exactly what "opening things back up" means?

Where I live, I can practically do anything I want.  I can go to the store, get food from restaurants (can't dine in), etc. 

So much of what is closed down is entertainment.  Malls, movie theaters, clothing stores, Disney World, etc.

The corporate world can suck it up and work from home.  If your job relies on a computer, you can do it at home.  If you can't, your company should be providing access.  Business meetings can all be zoom for awhile.  Deal with it. 

Churches are closed and should remain closed while there is danger.

Sporting events are pure entertainment and should remain closed to fans for at least 3-4 months.

The airline industry is going to get hammered.  Even when it opens up, you have to imagine that many companies are going to realize that so much of the travel they paid for was a waste of money.  I know that's the case where I work.

So what really is "opening it back up"? (no right or wrong answer, just think it's an interesting discussion)

I am going to guess you are still currently fully employed and havent lost any income. Am I correct in that assumption?

 

[the moops]

I think it's interesting to discuss exactly what "opening things back up" means?

Where I live, I can practically do anything I want.  I can go to the store, get food from restaurants (can't dine in), etc. 

Have a bet going with a whole bunch of people as to when we will be able to go sit in a pub and drink a beer. Late June, early July seem to be the concensus. But definitely some outliers in early May and after Sept 1.

 

[JAA]

I don't understand what absolutisms like this accomplish at this point. Maybe nothing will ever be normal again. Maybe no one will leave their houses for years, but it's tough believe that will be the case. The flu vaccine wasn't widely available until 1945. There was no mass testing apparatus or digital surveillance, and yet somehow society and economies functioned and thrived after the deadliest pandemic in history. I view all those things as added bonuses that our advanced society can apply, but there was a return to normal without any of those things happening in the past. Maybe this time will be really different, but we've done this before.

This is fair.  However, look at the life expectancy then compared to now.  Much has changed.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

So what really is "opening it back up"? (no right or wrong answer, just think it's an interesting discussion)

School, restaurants, barber shops, hair salons, nail salons and construction I think are the minimum in a discussion of what "opening things back up" means. Small businesses/trades that got absolutely creamed by this. I agree with the take on corporate America and the airlines. Travel for business (i.e. getting points/rewards for personal use later) is likely a thing of the past. Just teleconference it.

 

[beer 30]

Why after this week? What happened this week to make you think we are all that much to getting back to normal?

Nothing that would be considered hard evidence in this thread, just reading tea leaves.

• The company I work for rents air scrubbers, lots of them. going into this event we owned about 700, now we own almost 4,000 with more coming. It's been one of main tasks to find these units across the country and get them to where they are needed. As you can imagine NY was a focus point, New Orleans, Florida, all the places you see on the news. While everyone else in the company has been slowing WAY down, my group has gone into 24/7 mode. That all came to a screeching halt yesterday. Couple of large temporary treatment facilities run by the Army Corp stopped dead in their tracks, requests from the field went from a mile a minute to I was cleaning my gutters yesterday afternoon.
  
• I don't watch the news, don't really have time but pick up most of what I need from this thread and all the reports yesterday were about downward trending death rates, flattening new cases in hotspots and in areas where we were expecting flair ups...nothing.
  
• My company has a COVID call for anyone that wants to dial in twice a week. The company we partner with, Work Care's chief medical executive was on yesterday and gave a pretty solid update on the path forward. Two key points he mentioned were in a company our size (15,000) we had an uncharacteristically small number of infections (12) for the amount of face-to-face customer interactions we do. He mentioned it 3 times, like it made no sense and that we should have much more given we are a customer facing organization. He also went on to say that new guidelines for persons who were exposed to a confirmed case were self isolate for 48 hours (not 14 days). If you aren't showing any signs of the virus by then, go back to work.
  
• Just a little while ago I got an email from the field saying a customer was calling off rent a large number of scrubbers because the case load they were expecting has not materialized. We were anticipating they would be out for a month or two, they were out for two weeks.
  

Again, all this is anecdotal. But these are indicators to me that I haven't seen since this thread started in January. It's one day but as quickly as this flared up, in my world, it will also drop off as quickly. Couple all this with a desire from the top to "open the country back up" by [insert date here] and I think it's inevitable that we will see people trickling back to work in a new normal. There's been plenty of discussions in this thread as well as elsewhere about the effect this is having on the economy and the fine balance we walk of when to get back after it.

Doesn't mean I think we go right back to what we were doing before February. I think we absolutely need to be vigilant, continue to keep up the good hygiene habits we've developed (washing hands, not touching our faces), proper social distancing and just good common sense in order to stay ahead of this. Will there still be hotspots? Yes. Will we still need to aware of our at risk population and treat them accordingly? Yes. I just don't think this is blowing up into the massive event we anticipated it would and I think a good part of that is because we took the initiative to shut down for a few weeks. Without that I think we would be in a much different place than we are now. I also don't think we can continue along these lines, nor should we much past May 1. That's my personal line in the sand but I live in Small Town, SC and while we've had some cases here, nothing like what we would have anticipated. I realize this is going to be very, very region dependent. All of the above doesn't apply to NYC but we can contain that better now as we continue to develop our knowledge base on this virus and how it is passed along.

My   sorry for the long read.

 

[msommer]

School, restaurants, barber shops, hair salons, nail salons and construction I think are the minimum in a discussion of what "opening things back up" means. Small businesses/trades that got absolutely creamed by this. I agree with the take on corporate America and the airlines. Travel for business (i.e. getting points/rewards for personal use later) is likely a thing of the past. Just teleconference it.

Not sure all travel for business will die. It is a pretty hard tenet in leadership of virtual teams that they (virtual teams) must physically meet once in awhile to be effective (and that the timing of the physical meetings must be reasonable predictable/on some sort of a schedule)

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Have a bet going with a whole bunch of people as to when we will be able to go sit in a pub and drink a beer. Late June, early July seem to be the concensus. But definitely some outliers in early May and after Sept 1.

I could see bars and restaurants with tables becoming two separate things after this moreso than they were before. Bars tend to have people right on top of one another. Restaurants with tables 6 or more feet apart from one another is a different scenario. As far as sit in a pub for a beer, put me on the later end of that spectrum for sure. 

 

[JAA]

Have a bet going with a whole bunch of people as to when we will be able to go sit in a pub and drink a beer. Late June, early July seem to be the concensus. But definitely some outliers in early May and after Sept 1.

I could see bars and restaurants with tables becoming two separate things after this moreso than they were before. Bars tend to have people right on top of one another. Restaurants with tables 6 or more feet apart from one another is a different scenario. As far as sit in a pub for a beer, put me on the later end of that spectrum for sure. 

My ancedotal observation is that we will learn the virus is 10x more likely to infect when indoors.  We will then see a whole bunch more outdoor activities like this.

 

[the moops]

•  He also went on to say that new guidelines for persons who were exposed to a confirmed case were self isolate for 48 hours (not 14 days). If you aren't showing any signs of the virus by then, go back to work.
  

WTF!!?? This guy should not be a chief medical officer of anything

48 hours tells you absolutely nothing. Most common incubation is 5 days, with it being as long as 14 (hence the 14 day quarantine)

 

[JAA]

•  He also went on to say that new guidelines for persons who were exposed to a confirmed case were self isolate for 48 hours (not 14 days). If you aren't showing any signs of the virus by then, go back to work.
  

WTF!!?? This guy should not be a chief medical officer of anything

48 hours tells you absolutely nothing. Most common incubation is 5 days, with it being as long as 14 (hence the 14 day quarantine)

Yea - everything I have read is 10 day incubation

 

[ericttspikes]

Not sure if you saw this but it is a great read

Thanks. I hadn't read that. I have read that places like St. Louis and some Western cities who did the quarantines, school and entertainment closings early did fare better economically. Places like St. Louis also went back to "normal" early and got hurt by the deadlier second wave, so there is some good historical precedent to follow along those lines.

It's tough for me to figure out what caused the most short term economic problems, the pandemic or the war. The war ended right at the same time, the fall of 1918. The economy was facing two shocks. The pandemic and having 3 million soldiers coming home having to find jobs and the war economy having to re-tool for peace time. I can't even comprehend the challenges back then, yet 1919 to 1929 saw a massive economic boom. It is interesting to read about and try learn how they made their way out of it all.

 

[[scooter]]

I don't understand what absolutisms like this accomplish at this point. Maybe nothing will ever be normal again. Maybe no one will leave their houses for years, but it's tough believe that will be the case. The flu vaccine wasn't widely available until 1945. There was no mass testing apparatus or digital surveillance, and yet somehow society and economies functioned and thrived after the deadliest pandemic in history.

Well, it's a bit easier for society and the economy to function when...

1. there isn't as much population density

2. people with the flu are not contagious for 21 days

Plus, we know that the flu is seasonal, but we haven't yet confirmed if COVID-19 will be.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

somehow society and economies functioned and thrived after the deadliest pandemic in history

They returned to normal so fast because the per/capita equivalent of 2 million people died in the span of a bit over a year.

 

[[scooter]]

•  He also went on to say that new guidelines for persons who were exposed to a confirmed case were self isolate for 48 hours (not 14 days). If you aren't showing any signs of the virus by then, go back to work.
  

WTF!!?? This guy should not be a chief medical officer of anything

48 hours tells you absolutely nothing. Most common incubation is 5 days, with it being as long as 14 (hence the 14 day quarantine)

This is a good point, although I saw an article the other day which said that most people who were thought to be in the incubation stage were actually showing mild symptoms the entire time -- they just didn't think that the symptoms were connected to COVID-19. So, maybe the new protocol will be "48 hours without the slightest symptom"?

 

[ericttspikes]

OK - I was reading it that there was some sharp decline in cases, or some major progress in treatment, thsat made him change his mind

The IHME model that mostly formed the current stay at home policy moved up their peak timing and reduced projected deaths by a lot. I assume that means what we are doing is working and it offers some people hope that we are making our way through the tunnel. 

 

[TLEF316]

To me, "opened back up" means.....

1- the social distancing rules have been relaxed enough that I can visit my parents (who are "high risk" due to age) without feeling guilty or like I'm potentially killing them.

2- golf courses are open (but still observing proper social distancing). This is obviously specific to me and not a "necessity". But I know that if I could go and play 9 holes after work (especially working from home) it would do wonders for me physically and mentally.

3- I can get a haircut. 

I'm not really someone who goes and eats in bars/restaurants very often and I would perfectly fine with never attending a movie or in-person sporting event ever again.

For me, the big issues that I work in basically the center of the universe (2 blocks from Times Square) so until there's a reliable vaccine or widespread immunity, I'll be exposing myself every time I go into the office. I honestly dont know at what point my company will be cool with the legal ramifications of "forcing" hundreds of employees to commute into mid-town.

 

[shader]

I am going to guess you are still currently fully employed and havent lost any income. Am I correct in that assumption?

Can you please tell me what that has to do with what I posted?

 

[the moops]

The IHME model that mostly formed the current stay at home policy moved up their peak timing and reduced projected deaths by a lot. I assume that means what we are doing is working and it offers some people hope that we are making our way through the tunnel. 

The problem I have with this, is the reason we are possibly making our way through the tunnel is because of the work from home, not go to restaurants, social distancing thing. We need to keep that up for quite a while if we hope to totally flatten the curve.

This is why the easing of restrictions and theorizing that we can get back to normal soon is so dangerous. People may see  reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths declining, and think that they can get back to normal. Which will only lengthen the curve

 

[shader]

School, restaurants, barber shops, hair salons, nail salons and construction I think are the minimum in a discussion of what "opening things back up" means. Small businesses/trades that got absolutely creamed by this. I agree with the take on corporate America and the airlines. Travel for business (i.e. getting points/rewards for personal use later) is likely a thing of the past. Just teleconference it.

Schools don't need to open up until fall, that's easy.

Restaurants can serve take-out, that's easy.

The government has provided a TON of money to small businesses and indviduals that hasn't even hit yet.  They didn't send that money so that they could go back and open things up 2 weeks later.  That would literally be the worst decision of all-time, to go 2T in debt and then let everyone work anyway.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm hoping/expecting other leagues -- maybe a lot of leagues -- to do the same thing eventually if they can get player buy in.

Quarantine so you know everyone's clean.  Then locate them centrally, like an Olympic village.  And keep everyone in one place for each stretch of time.  Basically like a long road trip at a time without the actual travel, with testing in-between each phase.

And MLB gets in on the act:

A wild realignment proposal is on the table to bring baseball back during the COVID-19 pandemic

According to USA Today, a high-ranking MLB official said that the league is considering hosting an abbreviated season under a Spring Training-type format. The AL and NL will be reshuffled into the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues, and all games will be played in just two states.

 

[shader]

This is a good point, although I saw an article the other day which said that most people who were thought to be in the incubation stage were actually showing mild symptoms the entire time -- they just didn't think that the symptoms were connected to COVID-19. So, maybe the new protocol will be "48 hours without the slightest symptom"?

I don't believe this is true.  Would love links to proof of that.  Everything we know is that the incubation stage is 7-14 days.

 

[the moops]

I am going to guess you are still currently fully employed and havent lost any income. Am I correct in that assumption?

Can you please tell me what that has to do with what I posted?

I can answer this question, for I find myself agreeing with your takes often, @shader

I am furloughed. Haven't received my first unemployment check, but when I do, it will be about a 50% reduction in my income, which amounts to about a 20% redcution in our household income

 

[Courtjester]

Schools don't need to open up until fall, that's easy.

Restaurants can serve take-out, that's easy.

The government has provided a TON of money to small businesses and indviduals that hasn't even hit yet.  They didn't send that money so that they could go back and open things up 2 weeks later.  That would literally be the worst decision of all-time, to go 2T in debt and then let everyone work anyway.

Or even worse, people go back and the virus spikes and we have a new shutdown. We can't do three-four-five more stimulus packages. 

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Schools don't need to open up until fall, that's easy.

Restaurants can serve take-out, that's easy.

The government has provided a TON of money to small businesses and indviduals that hasn't even hit yet.  They didn't send that money so that they could go back and open things up 2 weeks later.  That would literally be the worst decision of all-time, to go 2T in debt and then let everyone work anyway.

Agreed. These are just the things I believe people are referring to when talking about "opening back up". I'm all in on hard stop until 5/31 before we consider "opening up" anything. The model that many people (including the task force) are hanging their hats on literally says in bold that the assumptions are with extreme social distancing measures until then.

 

[adonis]

Schools don't need to open up until fall, that's easy.

Restaurants can serve take-out, that's easy.

The government has provided a TON of money to small businesses and indviduals that hasn't even hit yet.  They didn't send that money so that they could go back and open things up 2 weeks later.  That would literally be the worst decision of all-time, to go 2T in debt and then let everyone work anyway.

The only way we re-open society in any meaningful way AND avoid a second/third wave, is to have high access to quality testing, contact tracing where if someone tests positive you take them out of circulation as well as those they recently came in contact with, and effective treatments for those who are sick.  Add in the ability to do antibody testing to confirm those who should be immune, and we're in business.

If we can find a way to implement those three things effectively, we can re-open society tomorrow and be fine.  It would require folks to participate in social tracking and if they came in contact with an infected person, society as a whole will have to accept that they need to be quarantined.  Perhaps government funding could be shifted to support folks time off work when they are required to isolate due to contact with an infected person.

But this is what our entire effort should be geared towards.

If we're thinking that we beat the peak, and we can just wait this out a few weeks or months and re-open without effective testing, without quality social tracing, and without some better treatment options, we're going to be in for round 2 of peak NYC a couple weeks after reopening. 

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Sorry GB, I got into the catnip last night, turned on the TV for the first time in a week, landed on Fox News and was astonished at what was being said on screen.  What I posted was a not-so-embellished recap of what precisely Hannity and his guest were saying.  And I got carried away with it.  For that, I apologize to you all.  

What saddens me is that I considered us iBuddies with enough respect for one another to clear things up over PM but I suppose I crossed a line that crumbled that circumstance.  I'll be far more careful in the future.

you weren't wrong.  it's just as bad on cnn.  it's nearly impossible to get the news anymore.  their agendas are more important than the truth.  it's sad.

 

[T J]

I think it's interesting to discuss exactly what "opening things back up" means?

Where I live, I can practically do anything I want.  I can go to the store, get food from restaurants (can't dine in), etc. 

So much of what is closed down is entertainment.  Malls, movie theaters, clothing stores, Disney World, etc.

The corporate world can suck it up and work from home.  If your job relies on a computer, you can do it at home.  If you can't, your company should be providing access.  Business meetings can all be zoom for awhile.  Deal with it. 

Churches are closed and should remain closed while there is danger.

Sporting events are pure entertainment and should remain closed to fans for at least 3-4 months.

The airline industry is going to get hammered.  Even when it opens up, you have to imagine that many companies are going to realize that so much of the travel they paid for was a waste of money.  I know that's the case where I work.

So what really is "opening it back up"? (no right or wrong answer, just think it's an interesting discussion)

For real, why do you think it’s your place to tell everyone how they should view things? ‘cause you’re right and other people don’t get it? You have to be the most terrified person on the internet from everything I’ve seen you post. 
 

 

[ericttspikes]

They returned to normal so fast because the per/capita equivalent of 2 million people died in the span of a bit over a year.

no doubt. It was the medical dark ages too, so kind of difficult to compare on that level also. Some of the treatments like giving people 30 aspirin were toxic and later found out to have also killed a lot of people. But yes, they got caught in the fire and it burned fast. 

 

[shader]

I can answer this question, for I find myself agreeing with your takes often, @shader

I am furloughed. Haven't received my first unemployment check, but when I do, it will be about a 50% reduction in my income, which amounts to about a 20% redcution in our household income

I’m certainly not implying it will be easy or there won’t be sacrifices.  But the sacrifices will be greater if people rush back to work.

Hopefully between unemployment and the stimulus check you won’t suffer too much.

 

[beer 30]

The only way we re-open society in any meaningful way AND avoid a second/third wave, is to have high access to quality testing, contact tracing where if someone tests positive you take them out of circulation as well as those they recently came in contact with, and effective treatments for those who are sick.  Add in the ability to do antibody testing to confirm those who should be immune, and we're in business.

If we can find a way to implement those three things effectively, we can re-open society tomorrow and be fine.  It would require folks to participate in social tracking and if they came in contact with an infected person, society as a whole will have to accept that they need to be quarantined.  Perhaps government funding could be shifted to support folks time off work when they are required to isolate due to contact with an infected person.

But this is what our entire effort should be geared towards.

If we're thinking that we beat the peak, and we can just wait this out a few weeks or months and re-open without effective testing, without quality social tracing, and without some better treatment options, we're going to be in for round 2 of peak NYC a couple weeks after reopening. 

I think this is gonna be a tough nut to crack. Most sensible folks understand the need but the vocal fringe will scream from the mountaintops about rights & freedoms.

 

[moleculo]

The only way we re-open society in any meaningful way AND avoid a second/third wave, is to have high access to quality testing, contact tracing where if someone tests positive you take them out of circulation as well as those they recently came in contact with, and effective treatments for those who are sick.  Add in the ability to do antibody testing to confirm those who should be immune, and we're in business.

If we can find a way to implement those three things effectively, we can re-open society tomorrow and be fine.  It would require folks to participate in social tracking and if they came in contact with an infected person, society as a whole will have to accept that they need to be quarantined.  Perhaps government funding could be shifted to support folks time off work when they are required to isolate due to contact with an infected person.

But this is what our entire effort should be geared towards.

If we're thinking that we beat the peak, and we can just wait this out a few weeks or months and re-open without effective testing, without quality social tracing, and without some better treatment options, we're going to be in for round 2 of peak NYC a couple weeks after reopening. 

I like that.  I propose a positive test and you enter the a quarantine program where:

• you agree to stay home.  How could we determine compliance?  ankle monitors, or would a simple oath be enough?
  
• in exchange for staying home, you get $X per week - determined by your W2, 1099, whatever.  Make it net out such that there is zero incentive to return to the workforce.  It should net out to what you would be making regardless of COVID.
  
• job protection - you cannot be fired for quarantine.
  
• basic groceries could be delievered (deducted from stipend).  If you want more than the basics, that's on you - instacart or whatever.
  
• exit quarantine on basis of multiple passed tests.
  
• penalty for breaking quarantine would be really, really steep - felony even.
  

Contact with a known positive also puts you in quarantine, but shorter duration.  no symptoms, expectation is that you can exit sooner.

ETA: of course entering the program is voluntary.  We can't have the government infringing on peoples rights and mandating public safety.

 

[JAA]

Schools don't need to open up until fall, that's easy.

Restaurants can serve take-out, that's easy.

The government has provided a TON of money to small businesses and indviduals that hasn't even hit yet.  They didn't send that money so that they could go back and open things up 2 weeks later.  That would literally be the worst decision of all-time, to go 2T in debt and then let everyone work anyway.

The only way we re-open society in any meaningful way AND avoid a second/third wave, is to have high access to quality testing, contact tracing where if someone tests positive you take them out of circulation as well as those they recently came in contact with, and effective treatments for those who are sick.  Add in the ability to do antibody testing to confirm those who should be immune, and we're in business.

If we can find a way to implement those three things effectively, we can re-open society tomorrow and be fine.  It would require folks to participate in social tracking and if they came in contact with an infected person, society as a whole will have to accept that they need to be quarantined.  Perhaps government funding could be shifted to support folks time off work when they are required to isolate due to contact with an infected person.

But this is what our entire effort should be geared towards.

If we're thinking that we beat the peak, and we can just wait this out a few weeks or months and re-open without effective testing, without quality social tracing, and without some better treatment options, we're going to be in for round 2 of peak NYC a couple weeks after reopening. 

I dont see how we here in America dont open up too early.  My observation is that as a country we dont have a lot of patience.  Everything is now, Now, NOW, faster is better.  We also are aligned with instant gratification instead of longer term planning.  These are clearly generalizations but based on the existing monetary dynamics of the population, I think its a reasonable assessment.  Put that all together, add in that its an election year, I think there will be a HUGE push for opening things back up come mid May.  Is it the right or wrong thing?  My opinion is that its the wrong thing, but I believe we will figure out that answer come September as that decision seems inevitable.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

A few weeks ago we signed up with a local farm for veggie/milk/egg delivery direct to our door once a week.

It is a premium cost, but 100% worth it right now to keep me from having to go into a grocery store.

I strongly suspect we'll end up keeping it even after the new normal starts settling in.

this is a great idea. I've known about the meal delivery services, but didn't think about having fresh produce, dairy and eggs delivered. what service are you using?

 

[adonis]

I think this is gonna be a tough nut to crack. Most sensible folks understand the need but the vocal fringe will scream from the mountaintops about rights & freedoms.

I mean, on one level or another it's going to happen.

Either you use technology to make it efficient and painless, if done in a privacy-preserving way, or you have to hire a ton of folks to talk to newly infected people, retrace their steps, reach out manually to those they were in contact with, and tell them they need to self-isolate.

One way or another, this tracing/tracking will have to happen in order to prevent more widespread infections.

People can't continue to pretend that society hasn't fundamentally changed due to this virus.  Those who do will be promoting the deaths of hundreds of thousands of folks, because that or more is the result of continuing business as normal.  If we accept that the situation has changed, that new requirements are needed in society to handle this, we can get through it.

We're a society with a "war time president" with a population that doesn't think they're at war too.

Things are different.  In war, citizens are asked to do things they normally wouldn't be asked to do. Ration, work in factories, not but certain products, give government certain supplies for production...in this case, we just need to be able to mitigate new infections.  We don't care who you're with or what you're doing or where you're doing it.  It's war...war against the virus, and in such a situation you have to accept some compromises.  This is minor in an effort to prevent the deaths of huge numbers of your fellow americans.

 

[adonis]

I dont see how we here in America dont open up too early.  My observation is that as a country we dont have a lot of patience.  Everything is now, Now, NOW, faster is better.  We also are aligned with instant gratification instead of longer term planning.  These are clearly generalizations but based on the existing monetary dynamics of the population, I think its a reasonable assessment.  Put that all together, add in that its an election year, I think there will be a HUGE push for opening things back up come mid May.  Is it the right or wrong thing?  My opinion is that its the wrong thing, but I believe we will figure out that answer come September as that decision seems inevitable.

I agree.  We have president who says he's a "wartime president" and a population that seems to think everything is normal.

There's a disconnect there that has to be bridged somehow, and unfortunately the most likely way seems to be to make the mistake of opening up too early and paying the price for it in human lives.  We don't, as a society, tend to do very well proactively preventing crises...we react well.

In this case, we've reacted pretty well to fend of a crisis, but the very act of fending it off has convinced many that the threat wasn't so big after all, so there will be HUGE pushes to open things up, and that aligns well with what Trump wants politically, for re-election purposes.  I think the alignment of public interest and politics right now is not good, and the result will be much more death and economic disruption.  Would never be happier to be wrong than about this.

 

[[scooter]]

This is a good point, although I saw an article the other day which said that most people who were thought to be in the incubation stage were actually showing mild symptoms the entire time -- they just didn't think that the symptoms were connected to COVID-19. So, maybe the new protocol will be "48 hours without the slightest symptom"?

I don't believe this is true.  Would love links to proof of that.  Everything we know is that the incubation stage is 7-14 days.

link

"Most of the people who were thought to be asymptomatic aren’t truly asymptomatic. When we went back and interviewed them, most of them said, 'Actually I didn’t feel well but I didn’t think it was an important thing to mention. I had a low-grade temperature, or aches, but I didn’t think that counted'."

 

[shader]

link

"Most of the people who were thought to be asymptomatic aren’t truly asymptomatic. When we went back and interviewed them, most of them said, 'Actually I didn’t feel well but I didn’t think it was an important thing to mention. I had a low-grade temperature, or aches, but I didn’t think that counted'."

That doesn’t say they didn’t have an incubation stage, it says they didn't remain asymptomatic.  

 

[beer 30]

I mean, on one level or another it's going to happen.

Either you use technology to make it efficient and painless, if done in a privacy-preserving way, or you have to hire a ton of folks to talk to newly infected people, retrace their steps, reach out manually to those they were in contact with, and tell them they need to self-isolate.

One way or another, this tracing/tracking will have to happen in order to prevent more widespread infections.

People can't continue to pretend that society hasn't fundamentally changed due to this virus.  Those who do will be promoting the deaths of hundreds of thousands of folks, because that or more is the result of continuing business as normal.  If we accept that the situation has changed, that new requirements are needed in society to handle this, we can get through it.

We're a society with a "war time president" with a population that doesn't think they're at war too.

Things are different.  In war, citizens are asked to do things they normally wouldn't be asked to do. Ration, work in factories, not but certain products, give government certain supplies for production...in this case, we just need to be able to mitigate new infections.  We don't care who you're with or what you're doing or where you're doing it.  It's war...war against the virus, and in such a situation you have to accept some compromises.  This is minor in an effort to prevent the deaths of huge numbers of your fellow americans.

I appreciate you're stance and don't disagree that to get ahead of this, we need tracing whether cooperatively (apps) or otherwise (hire an army). I won't go further commenting on the bolded because there is another forum for it but we all know that won't be the case and that will be why there will be push back on it.

That said, apps like Strava & Pokemon Go already accomplish everything you mention above and there wasn't any issues with that. Guess it's just how you package it. If tell people they need to download the "OFFICIAL US GOVERNMENT TRACKING APP" you probably won't have much buy in. If you make so you get gems and stickers every time you hit a goal, probably have hundreds of thousands sign up.

 

[DaVinci]

To me, "opened back up" means.....

1- the social distancing rules have been relaxed enough that I can visit my parents (who are "high risk" due to age) without feeling guilty or like I'm potentially killing them.

2- golf courses are open (but still observing proper social distancing). This is obviously specific to me and not a "necessity". But I know that if I could go and play 9 holes after work (especially working from home) it would do wonders for me physically and mentally.

3- I can get a haircut. 

I'm not really someone who goes and eats in bars/restaurants very often and I would perfectly fine with never attending a movie or in-person sporting event ever again.

For me, the big issues that I work in basically the center of the universe (2 blocks from Times Square) so until there's a reliable vaccine or widespread immunity, I'll be exposing myself every time I go into the office. I honestly dont know at what point my company will be cool with the legal ramifications of "forcing" hundreds of employees to commute into mid-town.

I would think that businesses which require close contact between employees and customers, such as barber shops, nail salons, and massage parlors, would be one of the last things we’d want to open up if we’re still trying to limit the potential spread.

You bring up a good point that for businesses in high density locations, even if the working environment is suitable for a social distancing-lite reopening, transportation of employees to and from work could be a limiting factor.

 

[JAA]

I mean, on one level or another it's going to happen.

Either you use technology to make it efficient and painless, if done in a privacy-preserving way, or you have to hire a ton of folks to talk to newly infected people, retrace their steps, reach out manually to those they were in contact with, and tell them they need to self-isolate.

One way or another, this tracing/tracking will have to happen in order to prevent more widespread infections.

People can't continue to pretend that society hasn't fundamentally changed due to this virus.  Those who do will be promoting the deaths of hundreds of thousands of folks, because that or more is the result of continuing business as normal.  If we accept that the situation has changed, that new requirements are needed in society to handle this, we can get through it.

We're a society with a "war time president" with a population that doesn't think they're at war too.

Things are different.  In war, citizens are asked to do things they normally wouldn't be asked to do. Ration, work in factories, not but certain products, give government certain supplies for production...in this case, we just need to be able to mitigate new infections.  We don't care who you're with or what you're doing or where you're doing it.  It's war...war against the virus, and in such a situation you have to accept some compromises.  This is minor in an effort to prevent the deaths of huge numbers of your fellow americans.

I appreciate you're stance and don't disagree that to get ahead of this, we need tracing whether cooperatively (apps) or otherwise (hire an army). I won't go further commenting on the bolded because there is another forum for it but we all know that won't be the case and that will be why there will be push back on it.

That said, apps like Strava & Pokemon Go already accomplish everything you mention above and there wasn't any issues with that. Guess it's just how you package it. If tell people they need to download the "OFFICIAL US GOVERNMENT TRACKING APP" you probably won't have much buy in. If you make so you get gems and stickers every time you hit a goal, probably have hundreds of thousands sign up.

I agree with this.  I dont believe we need a govt sponsored app.  Crowd sourcing, which is an opt-in construct, is plenty.  Look at the smart thermometer data.  Super smart idea and some people use it as they believe in the concept.  I think we need more "opt-in" options out there and some people will want to be helpful and some can choose not to be part of it.

 

[NotSmart]

this is a great idea. I've known about the meal delivery services, but didn't think about having fresh produce, dairy and eggs delivered. what service are you using?

It's a collection of Ohio farms - Yellowbird foodshed

If you end up wanting to use them, we'll each get a $10 credit if you use this link: https://yellowbirdfs.com/referral.php?id=9918

From their website:

WHAT IS A FOODSHED

A Foodshed is the geographic region that produces the food for a particular population. The term is used to describe a region of food flows, from the area where it is produced, to the place where it is consumed, including: the land it grows on, the route it travels, the markets it passes through, and the tables it ends up on. The Yellowbird Foodshed is focusing it’s efforts on the population of Ohio.

WHAT WE DO

Working with over 100 food growers and producers from Ohio, our community of eaters has CAST THEIR VOTE with their fork. Each product that we eat has been sustainably raised, harvested, transported, and consumed.

Our members are constantly striving to create solutions to help restore one of the planets most fundamental, yet most corrupted system...FOOD.

By asking ourselves and our customers, “Who Grew Your Food?”, we are partnering with both food growers and consumers, to create a sustainable model that DEcentralizes our current food system through 2 ways of purchasing.

• SUBSCRIPTION PRODUCE BOXES
  
• ONLINE STORE ORDERING