The Cowboys have played more road games than home ... and their combined opponent's W/L is 38-10. Is that the toughest start of any team in football? What is so frustrating is that with a better coach you probably just SPLIT the 4 close losses we've had ... which puts us in 1st place going into a very favorable stretch against sub .500 teams with more games at home than on the road.
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Official Dallas Cowboys 2012 Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bankerguy
- Start date
B-Deep
Footballguy
Here's the reality
If the Titans or the Bills or the Raiders played this close to Atlanta people would be excited about it. The problem is we all think the Cowboys are better than that, and they are not. They are an 8-8 team. We need to accept what they are and be happy on the rare occasions they over achieve.
Before people start saying "well they have XX" or "they can look so good" I agree they SHOULD be better than an average team, but they are not.
There's a ton of talk about Payton now. Maybe Jerry will fire Garrett and maybe Payton takes the job and maybe he helps, he is a better coach for sure. In the end, though, Jerry is still going to have to big of hand in things. He's a crappy GM, he'll undermine the coach, he'll second guess and demand, in short, he'll be Jerry.
Until Jerry Jones decides the Cowboys winning is more important than Jerry being the reason the Cowboys win this is going to be an uphill climb. Winning in spite of your owner/GM is a tough thing to do. There's just no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless Jerry decides to be Bob Kraft or Dan Rooney instead of Al Davis we are screwed for a very long time.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
I am sure Garrett is a very nice guy - but he does not manage the talent. First they need to play to the players strengths and not try to fit the players into "the system". If you have the wrong players for the system wither change the system or get the players that fit. Garrett is just overmatched. Ryan is fine as DC, they need to bring in a quality OC or HC/OC - well look there, I think I see Payton is now available. Really, I think Fisher would have been a better fit - but thankfully my Rams landed him. Unfortunately, the Rams don't have 1/10 the talent that Dallas has at the skill positions. I disagree witht he poster sthat say Dallas doesn't have the talent - they clearly do - they just don't utilize it.
B-Deep
Footballguy
If there seem to be some coaching issues why haven't they considered hiring an OC to call plays. How many first time coaches have also been the play callers for their teams, maybe that's just too much to put on Garrett and I have never understood it.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
I agree that its Garrett. He has a .500 record since coming in, and it seems like every game is always a close nailbiter. Offense has gotten worse each year, stupid clock management decisions, same dumb mistakes each week. Take last night for example, Garrett kicks a 53 yard field goal and gives ATL great field position. We've got a great defense and all, but hell all that potent offense needed was 20 yards and they get 3 points. But look, we stop them at about the same yard line we were just on. What does a good coach do? They punt the ball and pin us within the 10 yard line.
Rob Ryan has really made that defense great, and if it wasn't for our offense always putting them in crappy positions then it would be considered even better by analysts. I wouldn't be against promoting Rob Ryan to HC and let him pick up a few coordinators.
Rob Ryan has really made that defense great, and if it wasn't for our offense always putting them in crappy positions then it would be considered even better by analysts. I wouldn't be against promoting Rob Ryan to HC and let him pick up a few coordinators.
B-Deep
Footballguy
Slow down there partnerI still think Rob's the less smart of the Ryan brothers, and I have not been overly impressed with his brother.
The defense has kept us in these past few games, but has issues too. They had several chances to stop Atlanta on that last drive and could not.
dhockster
Footballguy
Good AnalysisA couple of thoughts:
-I don't think Cowboy fans would want Rob Ryan as head coach. Buddy Ryan was a defensive genius, who was successful because he devised new defenses that offenses couldn't initially handle. However, he was also arrogant, stubborn and inflexible, so when offensives adjusted to his defenses, he was not as successful. Both his sons have similar traits to Buddy, but don't have as much of the genius. Buddy and Rex have shown as head coaches that they can field good teams, but they lack the ability to adjust which a coach needs to take a team all the way. I think Rob would be similar in that respect.
-Jerry Jones is a big tease for Cowboy fans. He likes to draft/sign players who have tremendous talent, but also character/mental ability issues which offset their talent (see Dez Bryant). This makes you expect more because you see the talent, but because of their issues they cannot sustain the talent. contrast that to a player who has less talent but plays a much smarter game. You probably don't expect as much from that player because you see the talent limitations, but that player usually plays more consistent than the players Jerry likes.
-I am baffled as to why an owner would let his head coach call his own offensive plays. He cannot manage his team or the game nearly as well because he is always thinking about what play to call next. We saw this with Kubiak when he first was coaching the Texans and we are seeing it with Garrett now. I know Kubiak at one point gave up the play calling when Kyle Shanahan was his OC, I don't know currently who calls the Texans plays, Kubiak or the OC. Garrett needs to become a head coach and stop being offensive coordinator.
simmonjm
Footballguy
A couple of things to point out. On the defensive side of the ball Ryan has been doing an admirable job of covering up injuries; he has had to deal with injuries to Church, Lee, Connor, Spencer, Ratliff. The loss of Lee and Connor has proved too much to overcome IMO. Hell we have free agent from the street Ernie Sims starting at ILB. Horrible he is a big reason why the washed up Turner had over 100 yards rushing. As for Rex Ryan not being impressive the Jets went to the AFC championship back to back years with some crappy QB's. On top of that his playoff record is 4-2. I for one am impressed with that.'B-Deep said:
I know im in the absolute minority here but I would like to give Garrett another year. It seems that the draft and talent level has continued to increase in his tenure. Additionally Garrett is making the right calls for instance on a 3 and 9 Dallas catches ATL in an all-out blitz and he calls the right play a quick in to Miles Austin. Miles just happens to drop the ball and the drive stops. If he makes that catch its a huge gain and the drive continues. Little miscues like this have been the story of this year.
simmonjm
Footballguy
'dhockster said:
Great way to articulate Jerry Jones and his drafting decisions. Far too often people just say he sucks and is the worst when this is not true. I think you can get away with a couple of dumb players but once you start to add multiple dumb players and each make 1-2 mistakes a game it adds up quickly and you get the results you see today. The Eagles seem to be in the same exact boat with Vick, D-Jax, among others.Bill Callahan is a more than capable offensive coordinator.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that it is the players that Jerry drafts....or did prior to Garrett as HC. As others have mentioned, the high physical talent with mental flaws. I rephrase that and say "flash" over substance. Jerry likes to chase the shiny things. Its his personality. Its part of what him a successful oil speculator.
I do think the drafting has changed some with Garrett as HC. It does seem like Garrett has has somewhat of a calming, stabilizing influence The drafting has been better it seems.
But there are still a lot of holes. The interior OL is a big one. And even places where we've spent draft and FA capital, we still have weakness. And there is still the flash players at certain spots that aren't consistent.
I think Garrett deserves more time. I'm not sure any coach could solve the issues. Wade could not. Parcells could not. Several others before could not. Do I think Garrett would benefit from an OC/playcaller? Yep. It would not surprise me at all if Bill Callahan assumes playcall responsibilities next year. I think there is a quote by Garrett in pre-season of off-season saying Callahan needed a year to learn the Cowboy Way. And then he'd have more responsibility.
Jerry's admittion that he'd have fired himself as GM is also telling. He knows he needs to really assess what he's doing. I do think he'll make adjustments. Its what he does.
So I think the team should stay the course. Yep, that means the window closes more on the team's elite older players. But it takes too long to change over a roster. There is so much to clean up. Changing coaches and subsequently philosophies would only derail that process.
I do think the drafting has changed some with Garrett as HC. It does seem like Garrett has has somewhat of a calming, stabilizing influence The drafting has been better it seems.
But there are still a lot of holes. The interior OL is a big one. And even places where we've spent draft and FA capital, we still have weakness. And there is still the flash players at certain spots that aren't consistent.
I think Garrett deserves more time. I'm not sure any coach could solve the issues. Wade could not. Parcells could not. Several others before could not. Do I think Garrett would benefit from an OC/playcaller? Yep. It would not surprise me at all if Bill Callahan assumes playcall responsibilities next year. I think there is a quote by Garrett in pre-season of off-season saying Callahan needed a year to learn the Cowboy Way. And then he'd have more responsibility.
Jerry's admittion that he'd have fired himself as GM is also telling. He knows he needs to really assess what he's doing. I do think he'll make adjustments. Its what he does.
So I think the team should stay the course. Yep, that means the window closes more on the team's elite older players. But it takes too long to change over a roster. There is so much to clean up. Changing coaches and subsequently philosophies would only derail that process.
B-Deep
Footballguy
as often as he makes right calls he blows easy ones, and he cannot even seem to manage the clock. The defense is not bad, but when a big play is needed they never come through.i am not down on Ryan, but i am not at all excited about him as a head coach.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Its a good post Ridge.I get what you are saying about change and the corresponding impact to the process. I guess my problem is I dont see a process. I dont critical self evaluation and change based on previous learnings. We are the very defination of insane...doing the same the over and over and expecting a different outcome. I see no process.
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Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I wouldn't be opposed to Ryan being the HC as long as they have someone who can call offensive plays. The defense is solid and I like his fire. A head coach doesn't have to be a rocket scientist. Use common sense......2nd and 1 in that Giant game and they go shotgun 3 plays in a row to give them the ball back was the last straw for me. That was no common sense, I have coached 8th grade football for 17 years and I promise you at 2nd and 1 with 1:30 on the clock with 3 timeouts my objective on that play would not have been to score but to get the first down and manage the clock. I've seen way too many times in goal line situations on first down the team in shotgun and even no back. I don't like that brand of football plus the Cowboys haven't been successful with it and they STILL do it.
You don't want to revamp......move Ryan up, get a quality play caller in there and lets play football. Limit your mistakes/penalties and wear your opponent down by playing physical football, mistake free football, something another team doesn't want to play against. Watch the Bears this season, they aren't spectacular but they are playing the style of football that other teams don't want to play against.
You don't want to revamp......move Ryan up, get a quality play caller in there and lets play football. Limit your mistakes/penalties and wear your opponent down by playing physical football, mistake free football, something another team doesn't want to play against. Watch the Bears this season, they aren't spectacular but they are playing the style of football that other teams don't want to play against.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I just watched A Football life and came away with the following thoughts:
-Jimmy was the man! However, he was going to leave no matter what.
-Jerry is truly an idiot. Attention whore wanna be.
-Is Garrett getting a rough ride ala Jimmy half way through his first year? I am searching my own feelings here. Not sure.
The biggest thing that stuck out was Jimmy knew, he had to build through the draft and sell assets to rebuild it. Amen to this, why cant we do the same now.
God I miss Jimmy.
-Jimmy was the man! However, he was going to leave no matter what.
-Jerry is truly an idiot. Attention whore wanna be.
-Is Garrett getting a rough ride ala Jimmy half way through his first year? I am searching my own feelings here. Not sure.
The biggest thing that stuck out was Jimmy knew, he had to build through the draft and sell assets to rebuild it. Amen to this, why cant we do the same now.
God I miss Jimmy.
Garrett is under-performing at this point...there is enough data in. Too many dumb penalties, bad clock management, suspect play calling. Just not getting it done. He's had enough time to break through the learning curve and get his team in line. I don't buy its because of dumb players, I think its bad coaching and lack of discipline. this isn't brain surgery out there. Garrett is the cerebral detached type of coach...these guys need a motivator and disciplinarian. Perhaps move Ryan to HC and demote Garrett to OC (won't happen of course), or just fire him...unless he turns the ship around yesterday.
The Cowboys biggest problem is they are mental midgets. They come up small in the big spot every time. I've been a Dallas fan my whole life and its become expected at this point. That Dez play against the Giants....tell me any other WR in the league doesn't get his palm down in bounds there. It's ALWAYS something with them. They will be mediocre until they get a coach who they fear. The problem is Jerry runs the place like a country club. He rewards mediocre players with long term contracts and lets talented enigma's like Dez and Romo run things. The coach has no say because ol' Neck Tuck is there to coddle the players. He cares more about making money than winning games. The Cowboys brand is more important than the product
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I disagree, Loop. Jerry loves the Cowboys football team and would buy a championship if he could. The problem is he's a terrible GM and that isn't ending. They don't need a coach who they fear, but one they truly believe will take them to the promise land. There's nothing Garrett can say that is any different than he's said the last X amount of years he's been in charge of that offense. Philly imploded that last game and Dallas just happened to be there to pick up the pieces..Of course the media is talking like Dallas has this easy schedule down the stretch and that Dallas can get on this role. I'd be very surprised if Dallas beats Washington twice, those games will be dog fights.Dallas will end up in the middle of the pack and their will be yet more painful losses yet to come this season that will look oh so familiar to countless other losses we've all witnessed.
money.never.sleeps
Footballguy
I didnt feel very good about the 1st half of the Eagles game. Still do not like some of the play calling and lack of offensive production from the offense. Sad to say Im not sure Dallas wins that game if Vick plays 4 quarters. Dallas got some nice breaks in the 4th which is great but Im still not sure what to make of this team. Penalties, play calling, lack of physical play on the offensive line, and lack of turnovers are hurting the team. And where was Miles Austin?!?!
Im glad Dallas won the turnover battle and they'll need to continue to do that this week to beat Cleveland (which is feasable) but at this point I dont expect them to force many. Anyone have any feeling of Murray playing/not playing this week? Felix and the running game arent exactly lighting it up.
Im glad Dallas won the turnover battle and they'll need to continue to do that this week to beat Cleveland (which is feasable) but at this point I dont expect them to force many. Anyone have any feeling of Murray playing/not playing this week? Felix and the running game arent exactly lighting it up.
Manster
Footballguy
Remember last year? How many chances did the Cowboys have? How many have they had over the last several years?
The fact is, this team is right in the mix for the NFC East, especially considering the giants tough schedule.
That said, I fully expect this team to repeat recent history. They will tease us and falter in the end.
Right now, Im enjoying watching individuals like Witten, Carter, and Carr.
The fact is, this team is right in the mix for the NFC East, especially considering the giants tough schedule.
That said, I fully expect this team to repeat recent history. They will tease us and falter in the end.
Right now, Im enjoying watching individuals like Witten, Carter, and Carr.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Second half cannot be any worse than the first 
Bankerguy
Footballguy
They deserved to.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Ugh. So embarrassed by this W.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I'm not proud either, but they found a way to adjust. We trotted out a JV O-line to boot.
Manster
Footballguy
The Cowboys MVP for that game was Skrine and the rest of the Browns DB's. The Cowboys were outplayed by the Browns at home. Penalties and the gutsy play of Tony Romo kept the Cowboys in it.
I have a bad feeling about Turkey Day. Lets see, we got almost no pressure on Weeden, and we're facing a hot RG3. We had a hard time with the run. Morris could have a big day. Our offensive line is not much of a line, but they sure are offensive. Without Smith, um.........yea. Is Bernadeau still gonna be at center? Cook or Costa back maybe? Throw in a few stupid penalties, sprinkled with poor clock management, add Romo running for his life, and you have a recipe for Turkey Day disaster.
This is a must win division game for the Cowboys. Hopefully our crapshack of a O-line can somehow get a little better in a couple days........and hopefully Romo can come up with a pair shoes that make him faster. He's gonna need em!
I have a bad feeling about Turkey Day. Lets see, we got almost no pressure on Weeden, and we're facing a hot RG3. We had a hard time with the run. Morris could have a big day. Our offensive line is not much of a line, but they sure are offensive. Without Smith, um.........yea. Is Bernadeau still gonna be at center? Cook or Costa back maybe? Throw in a few stupid penalties, sprinkled with poor clock management, add Romo running for his life, and you have a recipe for Turkey Day disaster.
This is a must win division game for the Cowboys. Hopefully our crapshack of a O-line can somehow get a little better in a couple days........and hopefully Romo can come up with a pair shoes that make him faster. He's gonna need em!
jkruppe
Footballguy
It is embarrassing, but it is a win. However, if we're looking for reasons to console ourselves, then the compounding injuries this season should be it. We've lost starters at all 3 levels of the defense to the IR. And that doesn't count the games missed from Conner, Ratliff, Spencer, Jenkins, etc. I don't believe we've played with our starting defense all year. And yet it's still a pretty solid group. We really need more pressure on the QB, and I don't understand the lack of forced turnovers, but there we are.The offensive line was terrible before the season started, when we believed Free would hold his own on the right side. Now look at it. Yesterday we were without 3 starters, including a center playing out of position. They were awful, but what line wouldn't be without 3 of their regular guys? Costa, Cook, Murray and Witten have all missed time as well. Maybe we should feel better about 5-5. I think most predictions had us about 8-8 preseason anyway. IIWII.Having said all that, I saw Dez back out of bounds, 1 yard short of the first down. I saw d-line subs get in late and then just stand up and stand still on 3rd and long in the red zone as if they were at a Friday morning walk-through. I saw Austin not hustle to get to his spots on more than 1 route. I saw an awful lot of give-up and very little heart. AGAIN. If you can't get your team up to play a home game against a team you should dominate to pull within 1 game of the division lead, then that's on the coach. Whatever the reasons, these guys don't buy in to Garrett's, 'stay the course, work the process, get better every week' spiel. He's not the coach these guys need to play up to their potential.Just my $.02
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Ridgelake
Footballguy
Problem is neither was Wade nor Tuna.I don't have time for a lengthy discourse on the subject. But there are larger problems than Garrett. Or Romo.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
If it's not obvious we need an offensive line after that embarassment, then I got nothing for you. I think as a group we lynch any poster hinting after drafting any player other then Oline with picks 1 and 2 next year.
Can we not roll with Harris for now on? Like his game of late.
Can we not roll with Harris for now on? Like his game of late.
Hastur
Footballguy
I was willing to bet money they were going to draft Oline this past draft. Garrett was a witness to how a superior Oline can create a dynasty. I was all over these boards saying how they were going to draft OL. I was really shocked when they didn't.
simmonjm
Footballguy
Cornerback had been killing the secondary for years, they saw Claiborne as a solution and its easy to look back now but the bottom line is that the Cowboys had too many holes through 1 draft and free agency.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I was hoping for DeCastro. But it was becoming increasingly clear that if we had not moved up for Claiborne (or maybe Barron), we would have gone Brockers at 14. Losing our 2nd rounder (to move up) really shows up in the OL too. There were a lot of quality guards on the board at 45. But if we really want to play the what-if game, go back to 2009 draft. Remember when Dallas kept trading down? They moved out of pick 52. They had their sites lined up for Max Unger, but Seattle moved ahead of Dallas to take him at pick 50. Getting a real solid center sure would stabilize this group. Speaking of that 2009 draft, how much would it have helped to have had a 1st and 3rd rounder that got traded for Roy Williams?It will also be interesting to see if Bill Nagy develops in Detroit. I was seriously ticked when the team cut him in training camp due to injury. Seriously short sighted if he develops into a solid guy, which seem likely.Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Water under the bridge. No help to be had this year. Not sure how much immediate help draft picks are in the OL. They usually take some time. Not sure what the FA class looks like either, or how much cap space we'll have. And remember, we still have the penalty for allegedly dumping salary in the uncapped year.All these little moves and events start to add up. And the fix may not be possible, even with a full offseason.
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Ridgelake
Footballguy
This is the best article that I have read in some time explaining the conundrum that the Dallas offense is in right now. Major Kudos to Bob Sturm.
http://sturminator.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Decoding Garrett - Week 10 - Cleveland
As the Cowboys navigate past the 10 game barrier in their season and in to the stretch drive, we now have enough data to begin to learn about this team based on what they do well and more importantly, it seems, what they don't do well at all.
We know that this team has the fewest 10 play drives in the NFL. Of the Cowboys 112 drives, only 11 have lasted 10 plays. That is lower than every team in the league, with the league average at 17 and the league leaders up at 25 (New England).
This statistic doesn't go well with the previous one, but the Cowboys also have the worst starting field position in the league following kickoffs. In fact, they are the only team in football that doesn't at least average the 20 yard line after kickoffs (19.8). That stat is amazing, and if you always have long fields and cannot string long drives together, that is a horrid combination.
Other horrible characteristics of a 5-5 team include being 2nd only to Washington in "Penalties Accepted Against". Washington has been called for 88, Dallas 83, and the league average is at 64. What is worse? Dallas has actually been called for 97 penalties, while Washington has been called for just 95. So, if you count those flags that have been declined by the opponent, the Cowboys are the worst in the league.
Another statistic that is tracked in the league that Dallas does poorly in is rush percentage. This statistic tracks your run play percentages and it gives us a look at which teams are able to run the football and which are not. Of course, as a game develops, score can often dictate play-calling, and in the end, this stat doesn't always paint a full picture. But, 3 of the top 4 running teams are Seattle, San Francisco, and Houston - also 3 of the top 4 teams in performance this year. Washington and Kansas City also run the ball a ton, too.
Fewest runs? Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas. The Cowboys have run the ball 233 times this season in 661 plays for a run/pass ratio of 35/65. Seattle is #1 at 55/45 run/pass on the year, and that hardly surprises anyone.
And the Cowboys are 32nd in average yards per run. 3.57 is 32nd of 32, which verifies the decision making in a league where the average run is 4.21 and the league leaders are at 5.48 (San Francisco).
So, they seldom run the ball, and when they do, they run it for the shortest gains (and often pick up penalties). So, if you ever wanted to understand why this offensive line is thought of as being absolutely sub-par, there it is.
Then, in pass protection, evidence is a bit more difficult to confirm, because as I have written a number of times, a coach can tailor his offense around poor pass protection. It is a choice he must make to coach to avoid sacks or coach to push the ball down the field. If he calls short passes, there will be almost no sacks because those routes take less than 2 seconds. But, if a route is down the field, he needs pass protection which then can lead to sacks.
And that is why I think we have seen a change in attack from Jason Garrett and Tony Romo. Whether they maintain this stance on Thursday will be telling, but I believe that the two decided (likely after the Atlanta game) that they must risk the QB's health and OL's pass protection skills and begin taking more shots down the field.
The conclusion must be that their offense was just not creating any plays because they were being so careful and avoiding risk (See: Garrett Risk Aversion theory). They weren't running the ball without DeMarco Murray and they weren't getting anything but short passes to protect the QB. So, they were trying shallow routes, but the defense was sitting on these short routes (since they scout Dallas) and this led to smaller windows and the chance for more interceptions.
There was only one chance this team had to make the playoffs: Scrap the caution in the passing game. At least until Murray could return and possibly restore balance, they would have to do 2 things. 1) stop trying to have balance and 2) start throwing the ball down the field more and back off the secondary.
Throw the ball down the field. Test the pass protection. Take some hits. And ask Romo to make things up on the fly and win the game himself. One mistake might be too many, but they clearly decided that nothing else was working.
Murray has been out since the Baltimore game and I hesitate to call him a savior of any sort. It was my belief that he was losing confidence quickly after the horrible experience in the Tampa Bay and Chicago games that included an absurd 18 negative runs in 29 carries. And as you may recall, he tore up the Ravens defense early but then has been lost since halftime of that game back on October 14th and the Cowboys haven't seen him since.
After that, they played Carolina, New York, and Atlanta and the offense never looked strong. But, in the Atlanta and New York games, they did find some small success when they scrapped their balanced offensive philosophy (under center/shotgun and run/pass) and just went into their full 2-minute drill offense. It was a small sample, but I believe it led to this conclusion.
In the 5 games since Murray has been missing, the Cowboys have gradually thrown caution to the wind and despite the fact that it is not fundamentally sound, have become more and more interested in a straight shotgun offense.
The results? In 146 snaps in "Shotgun 11" personnel, they have gained 965 yards, or 6.61 yards per snap. In the 178 other snaps since Murray has been gone, they have gained 759 yards, or 4.26 yards per snap. Knowing the league average for yards per play is 5.44, you can see how telling these stats truly are.
In the 5 games, their S11 has averaged 6.3, 6.3, 10.1, 5.3, and 5.2. Meanwhile, every other package combined has averaged 4.4, 4.3, 3.4, 5.6, and 2.5. That is right. 2.5 yards per play in 29 snaps against Cleveland for everything that was not S11.
It is not efficient. It is not challenging for the defense at all to defend. It invites more blitzes and more pressure on Tony Romo. It doesn't stress the safeties at all. It is not smart football. It may get your QB hurt. I would advise strongly against it, and more importantly, I am guessing any coach would think it was a really bad idea.
BUT.
It is all they have right now that is working. Their under-center offense against Cleveland (see below) was an abomination.
Garrett and Romo are likely discussing today if they should proceed down this path. The Cowboys threw more deep passes on Sunday than in any other game this year, but their QB took a beating. Was it worth it? And can they continue to play with this fire?
They might tell each-other that this is just until DeMarco can return next week (hopefully). But, they also have to stay alive so his return actually matters.
They are clearly playing with fire, but I honestly am not sure they have a choice.
Data from Week 10 vs Cleveland
Run-Pass
21-57
Starting Field Position
D 26
1st Down Run-Pass
11-25
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go
8.38
2nd Down Run-Pass
5-21
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go
7.5
3rd Down Run-Pass
4-10
3rd Down Conversions
4-14, 29%
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
Notice all of the downfield throws. This has been missing for weeks. And each throw of that distance requires Romo to take a hit or two.
1st Half -
The 2nd half chart shows more deep shots, including the two deep throws they hit on to Dez Bryant.
2nd Half and Overtime -
Here is a chart dedicated to the day that Dez Bryant had. It appears he is now the focal point of this new initiative. Take risks to allow Dez to take over the game. And on Sunday, he did.
Dez Bryant -
Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Season: 108 Drives* 51 Run/57 Pass - 47% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 4 so far this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
Balance? What balance? I have never seen 68% before. That is insanely high. Like June Jones high.
Wk 1 - NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
2012 Season Total: 325/651 50%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
And the numbers below explain the mess. The Cowboys tried 24 plays from under center on Sunday and gained a pathetic 48 yards. This is as bad as it gets.
If you want to know why they just scrapped their playbook, look no further than that.
Package
Plays Run
Yards
Run
Pass
11
6
20
6-20
0-0
12
5
3
1-0
4-3
13
1
6
1-6
0-0
21
4
7
2-7
2-0
22
6
7
6-7
0-0
23
2
5
1-2
1-3
S01
2
0
0-0
2-0
S02
0
0
0-0
0-0
S11
47
241
3-15
44-226
S12
3
27
0-0
3-27
Knee
0
0
0-0
0-0
Totals
78
320
21-63
57-259
* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
Their performance on 3rd Down was flat-out awful. 14 plays for 20 yards is ridiculous. I think we should see that Cleveland was bringing pressure and running more stunts on this money down and causing the Cowboys all sorts of stress. Even with their efficiency out of shotgun, they still need to stay out of 3rd Down and do their damage on 1st and 2nd Down. Because 3rd Down is not kind to them right now.
Package
Plays
Yards
Run
Pass
FD/TD
11
2
3
2-3
0-0
1/0
12
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
13
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
21
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
22
1
2
1-2
0-0
1/0
23
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
S01
2
0
0-0
2-0
0/0
S10
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
S11
9
15
1-1
8-14
2/0
S12
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
Totals
14
20
4-6
10-14
4/0
It is as out of balance and counter-intuitive as I have ever seen. It basically tells us what we already know: The Cowboys offensive line and the injury to DeMarco Murray has made them toss everything in the trash as they simply go to a survival mode.
I really doubt it can work for long, but if they can somehow get the next two home games against mediocre teams, maybe they can try to play fundamentally sound football in the final month. I am not sure I have ever seen this Cowboys offense in a more ridiculous state of desperation than they are right now. I highly doubt they (Jerry) will ever marginalize the importance of an offensive line again - but they are learning their lessons now.
In the meantime, at some point, they (Garrett and Romo) had to get honest with themselves. This team has to try something unconventional to survive through this stretch. Nothing else was close to working.
This is not a great option, but it might be the only one. All Shotgun, all the time. No complicated personnel switches and no play action. Why? Because run fakes don't work unless you have run success. This whole plan is one big Hail Mary that the next hit on Romo isn't his last of the year.
Just hold your breath that they don't get burned.
http://sturminator.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Decoding Garrett - Week 10 - Cleveland
As the Cowboys navigate past the 10 game barrier in their season and in to the stretch drive, we now have enough data to begin to learn about this team based on what they do well and more importantly, it seems, what they don't do well at all.
We know that this team has the fewest 10 play drives in the NFL. Of the Cowboys 112 drives, only 11 have lasted 10 plays. That is lower than every team in the league, with the league average at 17 and the league leaders up at 25 (New England).
This statistic doesn't go well with the previous one, but the Cowboys also have the worst starting field position in the league following kickoffs. In fact, they are the only team in football that doesn't at least average the 20 yard line after kickoffs (19.8). That stat is amazing, and if you always have long fields and cannot string long drives together, that is a horrid combination.
Other horrible characteristics of a 5-5 team include being 2nd only to Washington in "Penalties Accepted Against". Washington has been called for 88, Dallas 83, and the league average is at 64. What is worse? Dallas has actually been called for 97 penalties, while Washington has been called for just 95. So, if you count those flags that have been declined by the opponent, the Cowboys are the worst in the league.
Another statistic that is tracked in the league that Dallas does poorly in is rush percentage. This statistic tracks your run play percentages and it gives us a look at which teams are able to run the football and which are not. Of course, as a game develops, score can often dictate play-calling, and in the end, this stat doesn't always paint a full picture. But, 3 of the top 4 running teams are Seattle, San Francisco, and Houston - also 3 of the top 4 teams in performance this year. Washington and Kansas City also run the ball a ton, too.
Fewest runs? Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas. The Cowboys have run the ball 233 times this season in 661 plays for a run/pass ratio of 35/65. Seattle is #1 at 55/45 run/pass on the year, and that hardly surprises anyone.
And the Cowboys are 32nd in average yards per run. 3.57 is 32nd of 32, which verifies the decision making in a league where the average run is 4.21 and the league leaders are at 5.48 (San Francisco).
So, they seldom run the ball, and when they do, they run it for the shortest gains (and often pick up penalties). So, if you ever wanted to understand why this offensive line is thought of as being absolutely sub-par, there it is.
Then, in pass protection, evidence is a bit more difficult to confirm, because as I have written a number of times, a coach can tailor his offense around poor pass protection. It is a choice he must make to coach to avoid sacks or coach to push the ball down the field. If he calls short passes, there will be almost no sacks because those routes take less than 2 seconds. But, if a route is down the field, he needs pass protection which then can lead to sacks.
And that is why I think we have seen a change in attack from Jason Garrett and Tony Romo. Whether they maintain this stance on Thursday will be telling, but I believe that the two decided (likely after the Atlanta game) that they must risk the QB's health and OL's pass protection skills and begin taking more shots down the field.
The conclusion must be that their offense was just not creating any plays because they were being so careful and avoiding risk (See: Garrett Risk Aversion theory). They weren't running the ball without DeMarco Murray and they weren't getting anything but short passes to protect the QB. So, they were trying shallow routes, but the defense was sitting on these short routes (since they scout Dallas) and this led to smaller windows and the chance for more interceptions.
There was only one chance this team had to make the playoffs: Scrap the caution in the passing game. At least until Murray could return and possibly restore balance, they would have to do 2 things. 1) stop trying to have balance and 2) start throwing the ball down the field more and back off the secondary.
Throw the ball down the field. Test the pass protection. Take some hits. And ask Romo to make things up on the fly and win the game himself. One mistake might be too many, but they clearly decided that nothing else was working.
Murray has been out since the Baltimore game and I hesitate to call him a savior of any sort. It was my belief that he was losing confidence quickly after the horrible experience in the Tampa Bay and Chicago games that included an absurd 18 negative runs in 29 carries. And as you may recall, he tore up the Ravens defense early but then has been lost since halftime of that game back on October 14th and the Cowboys haven't seen him since.
After that, they played Carolina, New York, and Atlanta and the offense never looked strong. But, in the Atlanta and New York games, they did find some small success when they scrapped their balanced offensive philosophy (under center/shotgun and run/pass) and just went into their full 2-minute drill offense. It was a small sample, but I believe it led to this conclusion.
In the 5 games since Murray has been missing, the Cowboys have gradually thrown caution to the wind and despite the fact that it is not fundamentally sound, have become more and more interested in a straight shotgun offense.
The results? In 146 snaps in "Shotgun 11" personnel, they have gained 965 yards, or 6.61 yards per snap. In the 178 other snaps since Murray has been gone, they have gained 759 yards, or 4.26 yards per snap. Knowing the league average for yards per play is 5.44, you can see how telling these stats truly are.
In the 5 games, their S11 has averaged 6.3, 6.3, 10.1, 5.3, and 5.2. Meanwhile, every other package combined has averaged 4.4, 4.3, 3.4, 5.6, and 2.5. That is right. 2.5 yards per play in 29 snaps against Cleveland for everything that was not S11.
It is not efficient. It is not challenging for the defense at all to defend. It invites more blitzes and more pressure on Tony Romo. It doesn't stress the safeties at all. It is not smart football. It may get your QB hurt. I would advise strongly against it, and more importantly, I am guessing any coach would think it was a really bad idea.
BUT.
It is all they have right now that is working. Their under-center offense against Cleveland (see below) was an abomination.
Garrett and Romo are likely discussing today if they should proceed down this path. The Cowboys threw more deep passes on Sunday than in any other game this year, but their QB took a beating. Was it worth it? And can they continue to play with this fire?
They might tell each-other that this is just until DeMarco can return next week (hopefully). But, they also have to stay alive so his return actually matters.
They are clearly playing with fire, but I honestly am not sure they have a choice.
Data from Week 10 vs Cleveland
Run-Pass
21-57
Starting Field Position
D 26
1st Down Run-Pass
11-25
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go
8.38
2nd Down Run-Pass
5-21
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go
7.5
3rd Down Run-Pass
4-10
3rd Down Conversions
4-14, 29%
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
Notice all of the downfield throws. This has been missing for weeks. And each throw of that distance requires Romo to take a hit or two.
1st Half -
The 2nd half chart shows more deep shots, including the two deep throws they hit on to Dez Bryant.
2nd Half and Overtime -
Here is a chart dedicated to the day that Dez Bryant had. It appears he is now the focal point of this new initiative. Take risks to allow Dez to take over the game. And on Sunday, he did.
Dez Bryant -
Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Season: 108 Drives* 51 Run/57 Pass - 47% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 4 so far this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
Balance? What balance? I have never seen 68% before. That is insanely high. Like June Jones high.
Wk 1 - NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
2012 Season Total: 325/651 50%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
And the numbers below explain the mess. The Cowboys tried 24 plays from under center on Sunday and gained a pathetic 48 yards. This is as bad as it gets.
If you want to know why they just scrapped their playbook, look no further than that.
Package
Plays Run
Yards
Run
Pass
11
6
20
6-20
0-0
12
5
3
1-0
4-3
13
1
6
1-6
0-0
21
4
7
2-7
2-0
22
6
7
6-7
0-0
23
2
5
1-2
1-3
S01
2
0
0-0
2-0
S02
0
0
0-0
0-0
S11
47
241
3-15
44-226
S12
3
27
0-0
3-27
Knee
0
0
0-0
0-0
Totals
78
320
21-63
57-259
* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
Their performance on 3rd Down was flat-out awful. 14 plays for 20 yards is ridiculous. I think we should see that Cleveland was bringing pressure and running more stunts on this money down and causing the Cowboys all sorts of stress. Even with their efficiency out of shotgun, they still need to stay out of 3rd Down and do their damage on 1st and 2nd Down. Because 3rd Down is not kind to them right now.
Package
Plays
Yards
Run
Pass
FD/TD
11
2
3
2-3
0-0
1/0
12
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
13
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
21
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
22
1
2
1-2
0-0
1/0
23
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
S01
2
0
0-0
2-0
0/0
S10
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
S11
9
15
1-1
8-14
2/0
S12
0
0
0-0
0-0
0/0
Totals
14
20
4-6
10-14
4/0
It is as out of balance and counter-intuitive as I have ever seen. It basically tells us what we already know: The Cowboys offensive line and the injury to DeMarco Murray has made them toss everything in the trash as they simply go to a survival mode.
I really doubt it can work for long, but if they can somehow get the next two home games against mediocre teams, maybe they can try to play fundamentally sound football in the final month. I am not sure I have ever seen this Cowboys offense in a more ridiculous state of desperation than they are right now. I highly doubt they (Jerry) will ever marginalize the importance of an offensive line again - but they are learning their lessons now.
In the meantime, at some point, they (Garrett and Romo) had to get honest with themselves. This team has to try something unconventional to survive through this stretch. Nothing else was close to working.
This is not a great option, but it might be the only one. All Shotgun, all the time. No complicated personnel switches and no play action. Why? Because run fakes don't work unless you have run success. This whole plan is one big Hail Mary that the next hit on Romo isn't his last of the year.
Just hold your breath that they don't get burned.
The trade up for Claiborn and giving up our 2nd is fine ... the kicker is our scouting being basically wrong on the FA pickups at interior OL ... which in theory IS a position you can stop-gap up to league average more easily than others. Our next draft and/or more free agency stabs will need to be OL but you can make a case for almost every position including QB, TE, WR, and RB on offense and just about everything but LB and CB on defense.
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
Oof.
I guess we can hope for 2013. :(
I guess we can hope for 2013. :(
Bankerguy
Footballguy
No it wasn't.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
Worst defensive game of the year. They had been decent about allowing big plays. And gave us several tonight.
Very worried about the injuries. Carter, Lee. Back to ILBs who can be exposed in pass coverage. Scandrick. Several safeties. Hatcher. Ratliff? Our only interior rushers. This defense is just eviscerated up the middle.
And don't get me started on the OLine. Complete breakdown in ability to run block. What was the long run, 4 yards? And if Austin is out for any time, Dez is going to be draped with coverage.
But I will say one thing. At least they fight and don't give up. To those saying to fire Garrett, that's a huge reason why you dont.
Very worried about the injuries. Carter, Lee. Back to ILBs who can be exposed in pass coverage. Scandrick. Several safeties. Hatcher. Ratliff? Our only interior rushers. This defense is just eviscerated up the middle.
And don't get me started on the OLine. Complete breakdown in ability to run block. What was the long run, 4 yards? And if Austin is out for any time, Dez is going to be draped with coverage.
But I will say one thing. At least they fight and don't give up. To those saying to fire Garrett, that's a huge reason why you dont.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
There is just so much wrong with this team, so much to fix.
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