Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*** OFFICIAL *** In-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter doowain
- Start date
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Ehhhhh... depends on how long Manning hangs around in Denver IMO. I'd rather have Thomas in most cases (unless I also have Gronk, Graham, Cameron) but if Manning wins a ring this year and hangs em up, this will swing the other way in a hurry.
5Rings
Lurker
I thought it was cheap for JT too....but that owner has Eifert also. Guy giving up JT has terrible RBs, Rice/SJax/Ingram/Leshoure/Pead/Pierce.
I guess I disagree with early 1st, Hunter and Geno being worth significantly more than Cam in a keep 14 format - but can understand the other side and appreciate the feedback.
I have a philosophical question about RB vs. WR trade comparability. I could see in a vacuum preferring DT to Martin, and in the start-up this year I basically avoided all early round RBs. At what point do you start converting WR depth into top tier RBs?
Given the scarcity of RBs, it seems like you are going to be forced to overpay if you want a top 15 RB commodity. I.e. comparing the WR you have to give up in order to get a top RB, I would virtually always prefer the WR in isolation. Do people prefer to build their teams around WRs and only acquire RBs via rookie drafts and not "overpay" on the trade market?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You got worked!
I'm betting on that Devy being mid/late. I think it's current standing (7 of 14) is best case for the pick; 8-11 more likely. Solid roster and a couple teams ahead of him are coming back down to earth.
I like Teddy, and like rebuilding around the QB spot. The trade opens up a roster spot for me this year, and next. If Teddy holds up to the post-season evaluation process, and the pick is in the 8-11 range, I'll really like it for me. If the pick stays around 7, and Teddy isn't the prospect he looks to be now, obviously a big win for you and I'll be kicking myself.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
IMO DT is a better player than Martin in a vacuum, but the total lack of decent young RBs makes them very close in FF value right now, and if anything probably pushes Martin ahead, depending on format. Martin's disappointing output this year was more team-related than talent-related, IMO, and he'll bounce back strong after Schiano is ousted after this year.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
It's certainly more than valid to not agree with moving a beast like DT, but I'd definitely disagree that RBs are easy to trade for, at all, right now, much less a proven 2000 YFS cornerstone like Doug Martin. Unless you're talking about wart-laden scrubs like Powell or rent an old guys (and then only if their team is out of contention), RBs with a pulse are commanding HUGE value in every league I'm in ATM d/t low supply.
Then trade him back because I love Teddy, too!
Seriously, I got Teddy at 1.12 in last year's Devy since he was IMHO BPA, so I view this as trading a late Devy pick for a future Devy pick and a useful, young player in a TE premium league (and can flex him or start him on Witten's bye). Where the pick is is almost irrelevant.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Certainly a nice profit for you. If I was competing and owned Rodgers, I'd be excited about the deal (your side), too.
Then I prefer the Vereen side. I like his chances of contributing to a title slightly more than Stacy's this year (especially for a team that doesn't have to worry about whether they make the playoffs), and I like him a lot more as a long-term asset in PPR leagues.griff321 said:
Regarding the bolded, I think it's something of a false dilemma. I prefer to build around talented young stars, regardless of what position they play. Talented young WRs frequently fall further than RBs, so I wind up with more of them on my teams, but it's not because I prefer the WRs- it's because the rest of the market prefers the RBs. With that said, I'll just as gladly trade for a star RB as a star WR if the value's the same.
Tau837
Footballguy
10 team non-PPR league:
Team A gave up:
Ballard, Vick IND RB
Johnson, Chris TEN RB
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
Year 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team A
Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team A
Team B gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Olsen, Greg CAR TE
Team A is one of the top 2 teams in the league, so both of those 2nd round picks are likely to be late 2nd round picks. Team B only has 1 win this season and will likely need to rebuild.
Team A gave up:
Ballard, Vick IND RB
Johnson, Chris TEN RB
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
Year 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team A
Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team A
Team B gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Olsen, Greg CAR TE
Team A is one of the top 2 teams in the league, so both of those 2nd round picks are likely to be late 2nd round picks. Team B only has 1 win this season and will likely need to rebuild.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Interesting trade, I'm a little confused by team B's side of it considering it's a rebuilding team, trading Foster for a 1st + good young player seems to make more sense, assuming a deal like that could be had. Unless he's planning to flip CJ and Fitz, in that case it could be a decent move but otherwise I'm not following it.
Last edited by a moderator:
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
12 team PPR
Gave:
Tavon Austin
Chris Harper
Got:
Christine Michael
Rod Streater
Gave:
Tavon Austin
Chris Harper
Got:
Christine Michael
Rod Streater
cstu
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, that was my characterization, maybe he doesn't agree. Though 1 win so far is 1 win.
Evil G
Footballguy
I am not so sure...I think Julio proves to be a monster next year, yet again. The pick is great if top 4.
If the pick is 6-8 range, I think it's a real crap shoot.
EBF
Footballguy
I think with the market value of Thomas being pretty high you might have been able to get more elsewhere, but he's near the top of my dynasty sell high list right now, so from that standpoint I like it.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm higher on Pierce than most. To me, he's worth a mid-late 1st.
So unless the pick ends up top 4-5, that essentially makes it Julio for Gio and Jordy.
Not horrible I guess, but Jordy has declining value because of age and I'm not convinced that Bernard is top 5 overall good.
That's a long-winded way of saying that I like the Julio/Pierce side.
EBF
Footballguy
I like this deal for you.
I had my doubts about Tavon all along and the fact that he's showing nothing in the NFL is a concern. I know rookies take time to develop, but that's more about refining their technique and learning the pace of the pro game. The physical tools are there from day one and with a player like Austin who has been given many opportunities to get the ball in space and make something happen, I would've expected to see more by now if he were going to become a star.
Michael looked like a demon in the preseason and is probably the single most underrated dynasty RB right now according to generic lists. Great player to be scooping up wherever you can get him. He has warts of his own with his checkered injury history, but despite not featuring much in the regular season he has already flashed a lot more in the NFL than Austin.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Ballard, Johnson, and Fitzgerald aren't going to do much to help that rebuild.Just Win Baby said:
So basically Thomas for Graham, Boyce, and a pair of 2nds (pick 11-16 = high second rounder in a typical 12-team dynasty).Nucker101 said:
:X
If I was going to trade Julio, that's the kind of package it would take to get me to pull the trigger. Nicely done.Evil G said:
Even if that pick winds up being #6 overall... Julio for a top-10 dynasty WR, a top-10 dynasty RB, and a mid-1st in a strong draft? Yeah, I'm totally okay with that.Evil G said:
r0llin_game
Footballguy
Jordy isn't close to being a top 10 dynasty WR. Close might not be the word, but he's closer to a low end WR2, than a low end WR1 imo.
Last edited by a moderator:
If that was the best offer on the table, you'd sell him for that pu pu platter? I like Garrett Graham as a prospect, but there's a huge chance he's never startable. Josh Boyce can't even make the active roster on one of the most receiver-needy teams in the league. The 2014 pick is projected in the 11-16 range, and who knows where that 2015 pick comes out (17-32 range). To me, that's not a big step up from Julius Thomas for four guys off the street in the typical 12 team league (I know the guys available on the street in a 16 team league are much worse.)EBF said:
Edit: There's a big difference between believing a guy is a sell at current market rates and deciding to sell him at way below market rates just for the sake of selling him.
Last edited by a moderator:
Difference of opinion, then. I've got him 10th in my rankings. He's a whopping 4 months older than Calvin Johnson (who doesn't seem to have any age-related concerns surrounding him). In 2011, he was the #2 fantasy receiver. At the time of his injury in 2012, he was the #4 fantasy receiver. So far this season, he's the #9 fantasy receiver (despite having his bye- give every receiver whose had a bye their average for that week and Jordy Nelson is the #1 fantasy receiver this year). He's tied with Dez and Calvin for the most touchdowns (27 each) since the start of the 2011 season, despite missing more time than either. Granted, he does very slightly worse in PPR, but... what more do you want from him? He may not be as sexy of a pick as a Julio, Green, Calvin, Dez, or Demaryius, but he sure is as productive, and has been over just as long of a timeline.
Criminally underrated fantasy receiver.
EBF
Footballguy
His current pace and hype should net a lot more than the 10th-16th pick, but that might still be a profitable exchange long term if you think he's basically Jared Cook or Jermichael Finley on a flukey run with a HoF QB (which I do). 10-16 pick isn't a slam dunk superstar, but it's also not chopped liver. Pick well and you're going to get a Rueben Randle, Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce, or Alshon Jeffery there. The 2nd rounder should net you a halfway decent prospect too and Boyce still has a chance as a long term flyer.
Below market value? Sure. Might still be a long term win. Those are two different concepts.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
It just seems like a lot of his points come from scoring TD's. I mean, I do personally like Jordy, nothing to really do about his age, but I just think there's other options that are more talented. He's had a couple stinkers this year, outside of scoring a couple of TD's in those weeks. Not saying I wouldn't do that deal right now if my depth was shallow. Would probably snap it in a league where Julio/Wayne both went down and I've got just about nothing behind Alshon at WR. But in a league where I'm not relying on Julio so much, I'd want someone who I feel is more talented than Jordy.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm actually starting to see some teams move Calvin in my leagues. I don't think there's a big panic yet, but he's kind of a unique case because he has the potential to produce at a level above the other WRs and there's really nobody else like that. That's going to help him maintain top trade value even as he gets older. You can make a pretty good case that 3 years of Calvin are worth more than 5-6 years of anybody else.
Jordy isn't that good and he's already at an age where a lot of owners will balk if you're looking to move him. The reason he's nowhere near Dez/Thomas/Green/Julio in dynasty value isn't because he isn't a "sexy" pick, but rather because he's significantly older than all of them. If Jordy was producing like this and he was 25 he would be a lot more highly regarded, but at his age he's basically a car with no resale value. You can use him for the next few seasons, but you won't be able to sell him back for anything of note.
He's in a similar situation to Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald. They're good players if you're only looking at the functional value. There's minimal chance for exit value though and that's what keeps them below guys like Thomas, Blackmon, and Green in the eyes of most dynasty traders.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Appreciate the comments, I don't always post trades that I'm only involved in, but in this case I was the one who received Thomas. The other owner had a great draft when it came to TE's, he owned Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron and Tyler Eifert. I share similar concerns as EBF about Peyton retiring in 2-3 years and JT becoming the next Jared Cook, so this trade could definitely be viewed as trading for an older player, except JT might still potentially retain decent value as a top 10 or top 12 TE in the post-Peyton era depending on how Osweiler/New QB performs.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Totally agree, love the Michael side of this one. Too soon to write off Tavon, but I highly doubt he's going to reach Cobb/Harvin status like some thought he would. I see him as a future WR2 at best. Michael meanwhile could be a future stud RB, I don't see Lynch lasting long as the Seattle starter after this season with his contract, off field issues, age/workload, and punishing running style.EBF said:
EBF
Footballguy
Yeah, we've been over this a lot by now. One route to winning is by accumulating value so you can buy whoever you want. That means investing in appreciating or stable assets so you can grow your roster's value instead of buying depreciating assets that create roster holes in the near future.
One of the savvy owners in one of my leagues (2x defending champion) just made an interesting trade along those lines a couple weeks ago. He gave up Calvin Johnson for Gronk and two 2nds. I can guarantee you that the trade was motivated at least in part by age. If he had kept Calvin, he would have gotten 2-6 years of difference maker production and zero exit value. By switching to Gronk, he still gets a few years of difference maker production, except now when Gronk is 26-27 he can pull off the same kind of maneuver. Thus he'll be maintaining/growing his roster value whereas if he had kept Calvin the roster value would've been decaying. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
This is just basic mathematics and it's the underlying logic behind the "pretty roster" approach and the pervasive age-paranoia that a lot of owners practice. It is actually the correct strategy, provided that you can make the right assessments and that you don't swing the pendulum so far in the youth-crazy direction that you're selling off great veterans for mediocre youth just to get younger.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So the "near future" is 7 years away now?
Not that I'm totally disagreeing here, but Nelson just turned 28 a few months ago. He could easily be a guy that you plug in for the next 6 years without worrying about that roster spot. His age is basically the equivalent of a 22-23 year old running back in everything but perception.
EBF
Footballguy
Highly doubt he's going to maintain this level of production for 6 more years.
That's not really the point though. If you acquire someone like Nelson or Marshall right now, you are essentially committing to keeping him and watching him decay on your roster because his trade value will keep eroding. That's why those players are ranked comfortably behind younger options with similar ppg.
No real mystery in that. It's just a natural consequence of the dynasty format and the way people approach it.
In two years, Julio Jones has the same trade value that he does today. In two years, Jordy Nelson is untradeable.
That's why you see such a strong preference for the youth. If you're just looking at the production you're missing part of the equation.
Last edited by a moderator:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
petenice15
Footballguy
14 team Non-PPR QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,Flex,Flex,K,D
Team A is 5-2 gives
Doug Martin, David Wilson, 2014 1st & 2nd
For
Team B is 2-5 gives
Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, 2014 3rd
Team A is 5-2 gives
Doug Martin, David Wilson, 2014 1st & 2nd
For
Team B is 2-5 gives
Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, 2014 3rd
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Looks like the Martin owner over reacted to his injury. Martin alone shod fetch that.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Normally, I'm more understanding of the win now side of deals, but this is pretty ugly. The Forte side is buying 1/2 season at the cost of 5+ seasons moving forward. Better hope he wins the title this year.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
But Greg Jennings is not equivalent to a 24-25 yo RB.
If Jordy is an elite player like Andre Johnson or Roddy White then yes you are right.
The question is Jordy that or is he a situation dependent player. How much will any hiccups in health or younger players coming in affect his value going forward, even if he stays in GB.
Yes he could age gracefully. So could RBs like Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, and Stevan Ridley. But the market has already taken account of their risk regardless of age.
The window is not the same for every player.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why? What skill(s) does he lack? Is it his consistent production from week to week and season to season or elite QB that pushes him so far away from the top 10 or outside the top 20 even?
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
He's underrated for the same reason that Wes Welker always is. And Danny Amendola. And Ed McCaffrey before them. I'm certainly not accusing the FF community as a whole of racism, just pointing out that bias is both powerful and pervasive.
Similar threads
