Oof, that's HORRIBLE. Brees by eight miles. At this point, I'm not even totally convinced that E.J. Manuel will still be in the league by the time Brees retires.JustinHawkins said:
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*** OFFICIAL *** In-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter doowain
- Start date
JackReacher
Footballguy
I am a big Ertz fan and believe he will be very good in that format (you can start up to 3 TEs with 1.5PPR), but that is a lot of production to move out of your lineupConcept Coop said:
Eifert side and Brees side, both by a good amount.Dr. Octopus said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I drafted Ertz in both of my 1.5 leagues, so I like him too. But Ertz level players are simply too cheap to accept for Decker. Especially when you consider roster spots. Escobar, Kelce, D.Allen, McDonald - all of these guys can be targeted for much less than what this owner gave up for Ertz, IMO.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
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JackReacher
Footballguy
FFPC
A gives JStew
B gives RRandle
A gives JStew
B gives RRandle
Concept Coop
Footballguy
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
We use contracts in our league, 26man rosters, 16-team PPR. $400 annual salary, up to 3 year contracts (which can be extended with inflation). Not every player under contract.
Team A gives: Doug Martin $66, Mike James, Tony Romo, Danny Amendola $15.
Team B gives: Jake Locker $7, Eddie Lacy $21, and 2014 1st round pick (likely top 3 overall).
I am team A. I am 4-3 with a chance at the division and I already have RG3 so Romo not a loss.
Team A gives: Doug Martin $66, Mike James, Tony Romo, Danny Amendola $15.
Team B gives: Jake Locker $7, Eddie Lacy $21, and 2014 1st round pick (likely top 3 overall).
I am team A. I am 4-3 with a chance at the division and I already have RG3 so Romo not a loss.
You gave up a lot of good fantasy players for a top 3 pick and Lacy Locker.
You should have gotten all that for Martin
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Look at the contracts, though. Lacy costs a 1/3 of what Martin does, and is producing this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree that it's a horrible trade, but what would make you say that about Manuel? He's actually looked pretty good for a raw rookie.
And presumably has one more year left on his contract compared to Doug Martin before inflation strikes (and will be much more affordable even after inflation strikes).
He has looked good, for sure, but he wouldn't be the first guy who showed solid signs in his first five games and still wound up washing out. I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that after five games, I can't rule out the possibility entirely. Right now, there is still a well-north-of-zero probability that EJ Manuel is going to be a bust.
CR69
Footballguy
12 Team PPR QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/K 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
Gave: Ingram and Thompkins
Got: SSmith and ABrown
I needed help at RB with Wilson being a bust thus far, I'm thinking Brown comes back after the bye and ends up being pretty productive. Took Smith as part of the deal because I might end up trading Gordon away in a deal for Julio. Leaves me with:
Romo/Palmer
CJ?K/ABrown/Wilson/Pierre/Bolden
Calvin/Fitz/Gordon/Marvin Jones/Streater/Miles Austin
JT/Cameron/Witten
Gave: Ingram and Thompkins
Got: SSmith and ABrown
I needed help at RB with Wilson being a bust thus far, I'm thinking Brown comes back after the bye and ends up being pretty productive. Took Smith as part of the deal because I might end up trading Gordon away in a deal for Julio. Leaves me with:
Romo/Palmer
CJ?K/ABrown/Wilson/Pierre/Bolden
Calvin/Fitz/Gordon/Marvin Jones/Streater/Miles Austin
JT/Cameron/Witten
I saw that but when a top 5 dynasty back costs less than 25% of the cap it is a pretty awesome contract. Of course I am also assuming it is three years on Martin because I doubt anyone bid 17% of their auction funds on a rookie RB last year.
Tau837
Footballguy
Can we get some views on Decker in here? I've been wondering about his value. He is playing great with Manning right now, but he is a UFA after this season. What do people expect for next season? Is he likely to resign in Denver or go elsewhere? I was thinking the latter. If so, it seems likely that his situation will get worse. Thoughts?Concept Coop said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That's a fair point - it would also be fair to say that Manuel never develops into a true fantasy QB1, let alone a top 5 guy, which also would make this trade just as bad.
I say that as some one that beleives in Manuel's talent.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
It was a startup dynasty last year so I did bid 61 on Martin. It paid off. But the Lacy contract is 3 years and the Martin is 2 years. Inflation is up to $20 at end of contract to renew. The other factors being that the lower contracts allow more re-draft ability (I have only 98 of 400 budget tied up in contracts) which I now have an advantage. Guys that drop out of contracts this offseason or have inflated too high go back into the open market, so I can buy them without contracts on 1 year deals... meaning I can bully the league to acquire a couple studs like Lesean McCoy and Cobb next draft. The other idea being that Romo was not contracted so would have dropped off anyway. So the dynasty move really equated to Martin 66-2years, Amendola 15-2 years for Lacy 21-3 years, Locker 7-2 years, and top 3 pick in 2014.
Denver's got a ton of contracts that are going to expire after the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Von Miller (although there's a club option for a fifth season which will certainly be picked up), Orlando Franklin, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, Wesley Woodyard, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Knowshon Moreno, and Chris Harris, just off the top of my head. Decker's a good receiver, but I think an argument could be made that every one of those players is more important to Denver, and the Broncos won't have the money to re-sign them all. Denver's already been taking steps to prepare for the coming exodus, starting with their decision to push Elvis Dumervil for a pay cut (and ultimately release him). Denver currently has $10m in cap space, but didn't make a play for anyone at the trade deadline (such as Jared Allen) because they plan on rolling that cash over into next season to help get those guys re-signed.
Given all of that, I would not expect Denver to be able to offer Decker a contract comparable to what he would receive (and deserve) on the open market. Unless Decker is willing to give a significant home-town discount, I think it's very likely he's playing somewhere else next year. Which means it's a near-certainty that his situation is going to be worse next year, because no situation in the league right now is as good as Denver's. Even as, say, the undisputed #1 in Carolina, I think he'd expect some regression away from the friendly confines of single coverage and Manning-like offensive efficiency.
All of that said, Decker's a talented receiver, and wherever he goes he's going to have fantasy value. I think of him similar to a Steve Johnson- a good receiver capable of being the guy, but he's not going to be challenging for top-12 fantasy numbers unless things really break his way.
Agreed all around. I can't really imagine Manuel having looked better in his first five NFL starts, but promising rookie quarterbacks with five solid starts are much, much more common assets than Hall of Famers like Brees accumulating stats at an unprecedented pace.
Tau837
Footballguy
I see. Well that explain some of it. I just think Martin at 66 is a pretty good deal.
Not suggesting Lacy at 21 isn't a good deal but his sample size is rather small.
Danish Bengal
Footballguy
Ryan Matthews
for
Ingram
2014 1st (late)
for
Ingram
2014 1st (late)
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
12 team, ppr, best ball, qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, te, r/w/t, k, def
Team A gives Keenan Allen, 2014 1st (mid to late)
Team B gives Vincent Jackson
Team A gives Keenan Allen, 2014 1st (mid to late)
Team B gives Vincent Jackson
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Allen is pretty dang close to Jackson, value wise. I wouldn't add a first round pick to Allen, at the very least.
EBF
Footballguy
12 team PPR. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE.
Gave:
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Jerricho Cotchery
Got:
2014 1st (late)
RB Shonn Greene
Fitz was one of my first round startup picks back in 2006.
Pretty standard contender/rebuilder trade. I had a good run in this league from 2007-2011, but decided to start retooling the roster and unloading most of my good vets last offseason. This was the last major step in that process. I've now got three 1st rounders this year and a decent core to build around (Ryan, Mathews, Stewart, Pierce, Blackmon, Randle, Wright, J Graham).
Gave:
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Jerricho Cotchery
Got:
2014 1st (late)
RB Shonn Greene
Fitz was one of my first round startup picks back in 2006.
Pretty standard contender/rebuilder trade. I had a good run in this league from 2007-2011, but decided to start retooling the roster and unloading most of my good vets last offseason. This was the last major step in that process. I've now got three 1st rounders this year and a decent core to build around (Ryan, Mathews, Stewart, Pierce, Blackmon, Randle, Wright, J Graham).
flat_earth
Footballguy
I sold Fitz in a 12 team start 3 WR PPR last night where he was the last remaining player from my 2006 startup as well. I got C.Patterson/K.Wright for Fitz/M.Bennett. Fitz is an interesting guy value-wise at the moment. He's not that old really, but the nagging injuries and constant horrible QB situation have everyone worried.12 team PPR. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE.
Gave:
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Jerricho Cotchery
Got:
2014 1st (late)
RB Shonn Greene
Fitz was one of my first round startup picks back in 2006.
Pretty standard contender/rebuilder trade. I had a good run in this league from 2007-2011, but decided to start retooling the roster and unloading most of my good vets last offseason. This was the last major step in that process. I've now got three 1st rounders this year and a decent core to build around (Ryan, Mathews, Stewart, Pierce, Blackmon, Randle, Wright, J Graham).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fitz's poor recent production really makes him feel older than he is. I think subconsciously we correlate his decline in stats to his age. The truth, however, is that he's a young 30 (just turned 30 2 months ago) and he's probably got a good 4-5 years left. That would make him the equivalent of a 25-26 year old running back, which is often considered young.
I've been looking to move him too, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger on a late first. Even in a rebuild effort how far out are we talking for the rebuild here? Would LeSean McCoy be a sell in a rebuild? Because he probably has roughly the same amount of career left as Fitz.
I've been looking to move him too, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger on a late first. Even in a rebuild effort how far out are we talking for the rebuild here? Would LeSean McCoy be a sell in a rebuild? Because he probably has roughly the same amount of career left as Fitz.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, part of it is that my team sucks this year. So any production that he gets for me this season is pointless.
Next season he'll be 31. The ONLY 31+ year old top 20 FF WR right now is Wes Welker, with Wayne, Boldin, and AJ right on the cusp.
If anyone from the current crop of aging stars can play well into his mid 30s, I would put my money on Fitz, but it's not a guarantee that he'll be good for 4-5 more seasons. Torry Holt and Randy Moss disappeared pretty quickly. Tim Brown and Jerry Rice played forever. You just never really know. And honestly he hasn't been that good for me the past two seasons.
I'm not going to say that he's an automatic sell or that a late 1st is great value. It's pretty borderline. For a rebuilding team with (IMO) a strong draft class on the horizon, I felt it was worth a shot. If he goes to New England and rips it up next season I will not be a happy man, but I'm a believer in the mantra that it's better to sell a year too early than a year too late.
Next season he'll be 31. The ONLY 31+ year old top 20 FF WR right now is Wes Welker, with Wayne, Boldin, and AJ right on the cusp.
If anyone from the current crop of aging stars can play well into his mid 30s, I would put my money on Fitz, but it's not a guarantee that he'll be good for 4-5 more seasons. Torry Holt and Randy Moss disappeared pretty quickly. Tim Brown and Jerry Rice played forever. You just never really know. And honestly he hasn't been that good for me the past two seasons.
I'm not going to say that he's an automatic sell or that a late 1st is great value. It's pretty borderline. For a rebuilding team with (IMO) a strong draft class on the horizon, I felt it was worth a shot. If he goes to New England and rips it up next season I will not be a happy man, but I'm a believer in the mantra that it's better to sell a year too early than a year too late.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Fitz's best chance to regain his former glory as he ages is for the Cardinals to bring in a talented rookie QB who will throw the ball up for him and lean on him. Floyd is good enough to help open things up, Ellington is promising, a healthy Housler is promising (in a different offense he would be, at least).
I won't lie, I'd be tempted to see for a mid-late 1st with this class coming out. But I could also easily justify valuing him higher than that.
Seeing this, I'm contemplating going on a buying spree in my leagues looking to add Fitz. Not because its a great price, but because its a reasonable price for a guy with a really high ceiling even as he ages.
I won't lie, I'd be tempted to see for a mid-late 1st with this class coming out. But I could also easily justify valuing him higher than that.
Seeing this, I'm contemplating going on a buying spree in my leagues looking to add Fitz. Not because its a great price, but because its a reasonable price for a guy with a really high ceiling even as he ages.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Arizona's been laying the groundwork for a divorce already. Schefter's been reporting that sources are telling him the chances of Fitzgerald leaving this offseason fall somewhere between probable and certain. I just don't think the franchise can justify continuing to give $18m a year to a wide receiver with all of the other issues they have going on.
If that's the case, then Fitzgerald has a much clearer path to regaining his former glory. Either a franchise is going to trade for him and his $18m a year contract (which the franchise would only do if they were a piece away from a major run), or else Fitzgerald will be free to sign where he pleases (and, presumably, he'd prefer a franchise that already has the basics of a passing game in place).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Larry will provide more VBD than the average late first (career) next season. And the season after that. And the season after that.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I agree it's not ideal, but depending on team needs, a late 1st might not be so bad in this class. Let's say it's the 9th-10th pick. There's a decent chance that some one jumps on a QB or two earlier than normal with all the hype they'll get, especially with Mariota being pretty mobile. So let's say, best case scenario, 7-8 skill position players are picked before this best case scenario late round 1st. (I know, you can't depend on the best case. But I'm just making a point).
With the info we have now, and not including the late risers that will emerge, these guys will be gone (assuming they all declare):
Seastrunk
Gordon
Watkins
Lee
Evans
Sankey
Ebron
That's probably the top 7 right now for many people. Toss in a QB or two, and everyone else is available at 9-10.
Amaro at TE, ASJ at TE, a bunch of promising WR's and any other RB's that emerge.
That's not taking into account potential X factors in the draft process like DAT or Archer. Every league will have an owner or three who falls in love with that type of player.
And of course the late risers and combine freaks that could push the current highly ranked players down.
This might not be a bad class to shoot for the stars with a late 1st round pick. Especially if some owners need QB badly going forward.
Just playing devils advocate.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Great points here, I haven't really been following the particulars of his situation and his standing in ARI, being an owner in only one league where WR isn't a big concern of mine.This is actually all great news, makes me want to pursue him even more aggressively.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like ASJ and Teddy as much as just about anyone, I'd guess. But this is Larry Fitzgerald we're talking about...in a start 1 RB, PPR league.
Knowshon Moreno is pulling late first rounders. Knowshon. Moreno.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Good point. I'm just saying that I see a pretty full 1st round this season, if the players who should declare go through with it. I could see a very large second tier that goes from about 1.05-1.12, all depending a lot on situation of course.
It's still not a deal I would make.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think this could be a good class too. And only EBF and his league know if this was the best deal he could have gotten. But I think he'd have to agree: this is well below market value.
If this is the best he could get, and he's not going to compete for 2 years - more power to him. But this thread is to establish and discuss market value, and this is outside of said value.
For the record, I've made plenty of trades in which I've lost, according to market value. And real value, too. But that's what the thread is for.
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EBF
Footballguy
You're not going to get a much better offer for Fitz at this point. Maybe you don't own him anywhere and haven't tried trading him lately, but there's a very limited market for his services. I mentioned in one of these threads (maybe this one) that I recently had two different owners reject Fitz for Patterson straight up. We're talking about a guy who has caught 13 passes in the NFL and barely more than that in college. That gives you an idea of where Fitz's stock is right now. Ice cold. If he moves to New England or Indy in the offseason then of course that will change, but no guarantees there (hello Greg Jennings).
As for him being a VBD machine, part of the reason why that particular team has fallen off in recent years is because Fitz has also fallen off. He's WR23 in ppg this season after finishing WR32 in ppg last season. It's actually been a while since you could plug him into your lineup and pencil him in for 18-20 points every week. Bad QB play has definitely been a factor (especially in 2012), but he's also been very poor at converting targets into yards the past two seasons.
I can buy the idea that Fitz has more remaining EV than a random 8-12 rookie pick, but certainly there's less upside and more importantly he has much more restricted trade value. Rookie picks appeal to most teams whereas declining stars only appeal to a certain type of owner. For a rebuilding team I put a higher premium on the flexibility than I would with a contender.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've gotten VJax + late first, recently, and turned it down. I think you're underestimating his market value.
As for his production - I think it's pretty easy to see why it's been poor. He'll be in a better situation next year, and, again, will outscore the average 10-12 pick by the end of next season.
Those are my opinions on his market, and real value. I know yours are different, and we'll see.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I also own Fitz and have had trouble moving him. Definitely haven't gotten anything like VJax + 1st sent my way.
That said, while that's one end of it I don't think that the late 1st alone end is accurate either. It's a big leap to say that you couldn't move him for a guy that was just a top 3 rookie pick so he must be worth a late 1st at best. There's a big difference between a top 3 rookie pick (like Patterson) and a late 1st, and a lot of middle ground in between.
That said, one more season in the dumps and Fitz's trade value will be gone entirely. For me, the upside that he could end up in NE/Indy or Arizona could improve is worth holding for me. Even if you're worried about a guy moving to a new team, if he does go to NE/Indy in the offseason then his trade value will explode so you don't have to take that risk on.
That said, while that's one end of it I don't think that the late 1st alone end is accurate either. It's a big leap to say that you couldn't move him for a guy that was just a top 3 rookie pick so he must be worth a late 1st at best. There's a big difference between a top 3 rookie pick (like Patterson) and a late 1st, and a lot of middle ground in between.
That said, one more season in the dumps and Fitz's trade value will be gone entirely. For me, the upside that he could end up in NE/Indy or Arizona could improve is worth holding for me. Even if you're worried about a guy moving to a new team, if he does go to NE/Indy in the offseason then his trade value will explode so you don't have to take that risk on.
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EBF
Footballguy
Patterson may have been a top 3 pick in some leagues, but he also fell to 4-5 in many of my drafts. He wasn't a player that everyone was crazy about and he hasn't done much of note in the NFL besides look good on kick returns. To me, he's more in line with the value of a mid first (5-7) than a high first. The fact that nobody is even interested in Fitz for him kind of tells you where Fitz's trade value is. Realistically, you'd be lucky to get a top 5-6 pick for him. So to get a pick that's somewhere between 7-12 really isn't that terrible. It's pretty standard IMO. Nobody is going to give up a top 3-4 rookie pick for a 30 year old WR halfway through the season. So if you're going to trade him right now, this is the value you're going to get.
If I had a chance at the title this year then I would keep him because I think there's a decent argument that he's worth more than what anyone is willing to pay, but if I'm not contending and I have no immediate use for his production then I like the idea of cashing out for a reasonable price. Especially since I think we're looking at a pretty strong draft class here in 2014. With three firsts in my pocket I've got a lot of flexibility to get the rookies I want and/or make deals in the offseason for immediate help.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
What would you guys offer for Frank Gore? I just offered an owner Quizz and Nicks for Gore and Santonio. Is that overpaying? I own Lattimore too.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
People are paying a 1st for Moreno (presumably in multiRB leagues) because he will help them win. He is the #2 RB. At some point production outweighs projection. That's not to say in a vacuum Moreno is worth more than Fitz, but to a team that is 4th or 5th and wants a better shot this year, he probably is. This is Larry Fitzgerald we're talking about doesn't work when he's on pace for < 80 rec and < 1000 yards for the 2nd year in a row.
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