*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (10 Viewers)

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine’s Ambush Drones Step Up Attacks Behind Enemy Lines

Ukrainian FPV drones are increasingly using ambush tactics, landing and waiting for a target. It is a technique with big implications for the future.

www.forbes.com

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv launches drone strike at Russian oil depots

Zelensky says he will not be kind to Putin who he considers an enemy

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Chadstroma]

French Mirage fighter jets land in Ukraine​

“With Ukrainian pilots on board who have been trained for several months in France, they will now participate in defending the skies of Ukraine,” he wrote without specifying the exact number of aircraft.

On June 6, President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris would transfer Mirage fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots in France.

Later, the newspaper Le Monde reported that the French Air Force had pledged to train 26 Ukrainian military pilots over two years.

On Oct. 8, Lecornu said that the first jets would be delivered to Ukraine by March 2025.

The Mirage 2000 fighter jets could form a new brigade in the Ukrainian Air Force, which would fight alongside the battle-hardened 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that France plans to equip the Mirage 2000 jets in a way that ensures Ukrainian forces gain aerial superiority over Russian aviation.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia begins withdrawal of air defense units from occupied Crimea, says guerrilla group​

“The decision is driven not only by Ukrainian Defense Forces' strikes on oil depots and military infrastructure but also by internal public pressure within Russia,” Atesh said.

Partisan data indicates that some systems, including those of the 31st Air Defense Division, are being redeployed from the occupied peninsula to new positions within Russian territory.

"The occupiers understand that this move creates critical gaps in Crimea's defense, but they have no other choice," the guerrillas stated, noting that Russians are forced to take risks.

“As a result, airfields, military depots, and the Kerch Bridge remain vulnerable.”

Ukrainian drone strikes in enemy territory demonstrate that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's regime cannot protect military targets in Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts, and other Russian regions, Atesh added.

Due to Ukrainian strikes, "losses of oil depots and logistical hubs in Russia are reaching critical levels," which could lead to the Putin regime's inability to supply fuel to its troops, inevitably reducing their combat effectiveness on the front lines.

Overnight on Feb. 5, the 14th Separate Drone Regiment of Ukraine, in coordination with other Defense Forces, successfully struck the military infrastructure of the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.

This airfield is actively used by the Russian military for storing, preparing, and launching drones against Ukraine, as well as servicing tactical aircraft that target the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson oblasts.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive disrupts Russian military plans for Donetsk Oblast​

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin praised Russia’s elite Airborne and Marine Corps units, which are engaged in combat in Kursk Oblast at a meeting with acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexander Khinshtein.

According to Putin, forces in the area include marines from the 155th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 810th Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as paratroopers from the 106th Division, the 76th Division, and other units.

Analysts pointed out that Putin’s statement suggests that Ukraine’s offensive has kept elements of these elite Russian formations locked down in Kursk for six months, preventing their redeployment to more strategically important frontlines in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian military command has amassed approximately 78,000 troops, including 11,000 North Korean personnel, along with elements of most elite Russian Airborne and Marine units, in an effort to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. However, analysts highlighted that Putin has not prioritized liberating the area, while Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk.

Despite growing domestic discontent, the Russian dictator is delaying efforts to reclaim the border areas of Kursk Oblast, ISW analysts emphasized.

On Feb. 6, 2025, Ukraine marked six months since it launched offensive operations in Kursk Oblast in August 2024. According to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Kursk operation remains one of the army’s top priorities.

Over six months, Russian forces have suffered approximately 40,000 casualties on this front alone, including over 16,000 killed, Ukraine’s General Staff data indicated.

 

[Chadstroma]

Electric Independence: Three NATO Countries Cut Ties with Russia​

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, three small countries in northern Europe, are about to make a major step in cutting ties with Russia. These countries, which were once part of the Soviet Union, have relied on Russia to manage their electricity grid for many years. But after almost two decades of preparation, they are now ready to break free from Russian control.

On February 8, these three countries will disconnect from Russia’s grid. This means that for the first time in decades, they will be managing their electricity entirely on their own. It’s a historic move, but it comes with risks. These countries will briefly function like an “island” of electricity, relying solely on their own energy sources, before they connect to the European grid just a day later.

This disconnection marks the end of the so-called BRELL agreement, a shared power grid system that included Belarus, Russia, and the three Baltic states. The agreement, which allowed Russia to control the flow of electricity and maintain its energy influence in the region, is officially over. Starting on February 9, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will become part of the European electricity grid, ending their dependence on Russia.

A Long Time in the Making​

The process of becoming energy independent from Russia didn’t happen overnight. For the past 20 years, the Baltic states have been building new infrastructure to ensure they could one day break free. They’ve connected power lines to other countries, including undersea cables to Finland and Sweden, and an important link to Poland. This effort has cost the European Union over $1.2 billion in grants to help fund the new infrastructure.

The Baltic states’ decision to cut ties with Russia is more than just a technical change. It’s deeply symbolic. It represents the end of Russian influence over these countries, which were once controlled by the Soviet Union. For many people in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, this step marks a final break from their past under Soviet rule.

The Risks of Disconnecting​

While the Baltic countries are excited about their newfound energy independence, there are concerns about the risks involved. One of the biggest fears is that Russia could try to sabotage the process. In the past, Russia has used energy as a weapon, cutting off electricity to countries or threatening to do so for political reasons.

Security has been stepped up in the Baltics to protect energy facilities during this sensitive time. Extra police officers and volunteer guards have been assigned to watch over critical infrastructure, and NATO has even created a new mission to protect undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. These cables are vital for the new energy connections, and any disruption could cause serious problems.

Ongoing Security Concerns​

There have also been reports of incidents involving damaged cables in the region. For example, last December, a power cable was damaged, and investigators are looking into whether a ship carrying Russian oil caused the damage by dragging its anchor. These incidents raise questions about whether Russia could be trying to create instability during the crucial period of disconnection.

Even more concerning is the situation in Kaliningrad, a small Russian region located between Lithuania and Poland. Kaliningrad, which was once part of the Soviet Union, will now be forced to rely on its own electricity sources, just like the Baltics. Russia has tested its ability to survive without power from the grid, but experts warn that Russia might use this situation to stir up tension and create trouble in the region.

Despite the risks, the Baltic countries are determined to move forward with their plan. They have spent years preparing for this moment and believe that it is essential for their security and independence. For them, cutting ties with Russia is not just about energy; it’s about securing their future as part of the European Union and NATO.

 

[Dezbelief]

Russian singer who donated to Ukraine and called Putin an ‘idiot’ mysteriously falls to his death from a window

Vadim Stroykin, 58, plunged to his death from the 10th floor of his St. Petersburg apartment building on Wednesday after cops came to interrogate him about the alleged donations and other claims of…

nypost.com

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine advances 5km behind Russian lines in new Kursk offensive

Ukrainian forces have advanced up to five kilometres behind Russian lines in a fresh assault on the Kursk border region, footage suggests.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russian singer who donated to Ukraine and called Putin an ‘idiot’ mysteriously falls to his death from a window

Vadim Stroykin, 58, plunged to his death from the 10th floor of his St. Petersburg apartment building on Wednesday after cops came to interrogate him about the alleged donations and other claims of…

nypost.com

Really it isn't very "mysterious"

I am telling you, if I was Russian and ever crossed Putin... you would not be able to get me into a building that had more than one story period.

 

[Dezbelief]

Germany says its warships were sabotaged as concerns mount that Russia is waging a hybrid war

Vice Adm. Jan Christian Kaack said the sabotage had involved "more than one unit" and warned of attempted break-ins at German naval bases.

www.businessinsider.com

Germany's top naval officer said "more than one" of its warships were recently sabotaged.
A day before, a local report said a corvette-class vessel had metal shavings poured into its engine system.
Without expressly accusing any party, the German naval chief warned of a growing threat from Russia.


Kaack's comments follow a report published on Monday by the local outlet Süddeutsche Zeitung, which said German police were investigating an incident at a Hamburg shipyard where several dozen kilograms of metal shavings were dumped into a corvette-class vessel's engine system

Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote that if the shavings hadn't been detected during an inspection, they would have caused significant damage to the ship.


Germany is already on high alert for sabotage attempts after multiple incidents in the past two years that include a package catching fire on a plane and a fire at an ammunition factory in Berlin.

More recently, a German ammo factory in Spain was hit by an explosion in late January that injured six workers.

German authorities have repeatedly suggested that Russia is the prime suspect but are still investigating many of these cases.

 

[The Z Machine]

Germany says its warships were sabotaged as concerns mount that Russia is waging a hybrid war

Vice Adm. Jan Christian Kaack said the sabotage had involved "more than one unit" and warned of attempted break-ins at German naval bases.

www.businessinsider.com

Germany's top naval officer said "more than one" of its warships were recently sabotaged.
A day before, a local report said a corvette-class vessel had metal shavings poured into its engine system.
Without expressly accusing any party, the German naval chief warned of a growing threat from Russia.


Kaack's comments follow a report published on Monday by the local outlet Süddeutsche Zeitung, which said German police were investigating an incident at a Hamburg shipyard where several dozen kilograms of metal shavings were dumped into a corvette-class vessel's engine system

Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote that if the shavings hadn't been detected during an inspection, they would have caused significant damage to the ship.


Germany is already on high alert for sabotage attempts after multiple incidents in the past two years that include a package catching fire on a plane and a fire at an ammunition factory in Berlin.

More recently, a German ammo factory in Spain was hit by an explosion in late January that injured six workers.

German authorities have repeatedly suggested that Russia is the prime suspect but are still investigating many of these cases.

How does kilograms of metal shavings get into the engine of a military vessel at all?

 

[Orange&Blue]

Germany says its warships were sabotaged as concerns mount that Russia is waging a hybrid war

Vice Adm. Jan Christian Kaack said the sabotage had involved "more than one unit" and warned of attempted break-ins at German naval bases.

www.businessinsider.com

Germany's top naval officer said "more than one" of its warships were recently sabotaged.
A day before, a local report said a corvette-class vessel had metal shavings poured into its engine system.
Without expressly accusing any party, the German naval chief warned of a growing threat from Russia.


Kaack's comments follow a report published on Monday by the local outlet Süddeutsche Zeitung, which said German police were investigating an incident at a Hamburg shipyard where several dozen kilograms of metal shavings were dumped into a corvette-class vessel's engine system

Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote that if the shavings hadn't been detected during an inspection, they would have caused significant damage to the ship.


Germany is already on high alert for sabotage attempts after multiple incidents in the past two years that include a package catching fire on a plane and a fire at an ammunition factory in Berlin.

More recently, a German ammo factory in Spain was hit by an explosion in late January that injured six workers.

German authorities have repeatedly suggested that Russia is the prime suspect but are still investigating many of these cases.

How does kilograms of metal shavings get into the engine of a military vessel at all?

dump into the engine oil tank. dump in the oil servicing carts. dump into the actual oil drums. lots of places for contamination/etc to occur.

 

[culdeus]

Feels like things are turning the right direction. I follow a few daily updates on youtube and it feels a bit different the last couple weeks. Russia getting absolutely smoked and sending whole companies in to suffer total losses, with minimal UKR casualties.

An advancing army into drones just is going to suffer so many losses, whether UKR can advance against similar tech is TBD.

 

[[icon]]

Feels like things are turning the right direction. I follow a few daily updates on youtube and it feels a bit different the last couple weeks. Russia getting absolutely smoked and sending whole companies in to suffer total losses, with minimal UKR casualties.

An advancing army into drones just is going to suffer so many losses, whether UKR can advance against similar tech is TBD.

Ukraine is doing incredibly well. Their weapons development and ability to scale up in wartime is going better than anyone could possibly hope for.

Hopefully they won’t soon be fighting with a dagger in their backs. Et tu…

If that happens, Europe is going to have to get involved. UK is already champing at the bit apparently. I shudder to think how this could all play out

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If I didn't know better it almost sounded like a change in leadership is expected as part of a potential cease fire
I know what I heard across the TV airwaves today and it did not sound like the kind of support I would have hoped for Ukraine
My thoughts and prayers with the people of Ukraine, feels like the rug is going to be pulled out from under them

 

[culdeus]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

 

[The Z Machine]

If I didn't know better it almost sounded like a change in leadership is expected as part of a potential cease fire
I know what I heard across the TV airwaves today and it did not sound like the kind of support I would have hoped for Ukraine
My thoughts and prayers with the people of Ukraine, feels like the rug is going to be pulled out from under them

rug pulls are the new game in town

 

[thecatch]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

Russia is making steady gains right now. This isn't a stalemate situation.

 

[SayWhat?]

Still can’t believe that (dictator) Zelensky started this war. What crazy town world is he actually living in?

 

[Ridgeback]

Still can’t believe that (dictator) Zelensky started this war. What crazy town world is he actually living in?

Well, if our fearless leader said it, it must be true!

 

[Orange&Blue]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

 

[culdeus]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

I'm not an expert. They aren't charging across the front in Bradley's and Abrams with f16 cover. They are winning by drones that are mostly diy. Russia is depleted to the point where they have no significant armour to advance with.

 

[Dezbelief]

A Ukrainian Mystery Weapon Is Shooting Down Russian Glide Bombs

Glide bombs are among Russia's most powerful and destructive weapons. Now Ukraine is learning how to shoot them down, a new capability with wide-reaching implications.

www.forbes.com

A Ukrainian Weapon Is Shooting Down Russian Glide Bombs

Russia’s glide bombs have been a game-changer. Fitting cheap unguided bombs with pop-out wings and satellite navigation turns them into precision weapons which can be launched from beyond the range of surface-to-air missiles. Production ramped up sharply in 2024 and Russia is launching thousands of glide bombs a month against Ukrainian positions, leaving 70-foot craters and causing heavy casualties.

But Ukraine may have found an answer to the glide bomb threat. Last week a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman told RBC-Ukraine that their forces has shot down a glide bomb in the Zaporizhia region, adding that this was not the first successful intercept, but gave no details. According to Ukrainian Telegram channels the mystery weapon is now being rolled out and the number of intercepts will soon rise

How can Ukraine pull off this surprising feat?

Hard Targets
Glide bombs are difficult targets for several reasons. Although the biggest can weigh up to three tons they are typically under a ton have a wing span of less than seven feet. They are much smaller than aircraft on radar and correspondingly hard to track and target.

Short-range air defense missiles like the Stinger are typically heat-seekers with infra-red guidance; but unpowered glide bombs have no hot jet exhaust and are impossible for such weapons to see or lock on to

Further, they glide bombs are literally hard targets. They have no vulnerable engines or fuel tanks and instead of a thin metal fuselage they have a thick steel casing.

But what really makes them challenging are the numbers. It is possible to shoot down glide bombs with anti-aircraft missiles (sometimes), but not sustainable. In an interview with the BBC, Justin Bronk of thinktank RUSI noted that there were just too many glide bombs to shoot down with conventional methods.

You would blow through all the available air defence ammunition too quickly," Bronk told the BBC.

This makes glide bombs virtually unstoppable with existing defenses. As with small drones, the low cost and large numbers make them far more effective than traditional military hardware.

Most commentators believe that the only way to stop glide bombs is to target them ‘left of launch’ that is, before they can be loosed. One way of doing this is to provide Ukraine with better air defenses, or more F-16s or other fighters, so that Russian aircraft can be pushed back from the 40-mile glide bomb range

Others, like this report from the RAND thinktank last June go further, and suggest that strikes against the airbases that host glide bombers are the best solution. This would require weapons like the U.S. ATACMS or other long-range systems. America has been reluctant to supply such weapons or to allow them to be used on targets on Russian soil.

Knocking Down Bombs
But not everyone has given up on shooting down glide bombs. By coincidence, NATO’s Transformation Directorate has just published an Innovation Challenge to counter glide bombs. This covers the detection phase, and different possible solutions including electronic jamming of the bomb’s guidance system, preventing the launch aircraft from getting within range -- and destroying the glide bomb in the air.

The Challenge is looking for innovation, especially in the use of AI or machine learning, and requires portable, low-cost systems which can be deployed at scale and do not require extensive training. Has Ukraine already found a solution and if so, what does it look like?

We might get some clues from Ukraine’s solution to two other novel aerial threats both of which were too small and too numerous for traditional air defenses.: reconnaissance drones and Shahed attack drones.

Russian fixed-wing reconnaissance drones orbit at an altitude of several thousand feet, and direct artillery fire, missiles and long-range drone strikes with high precision. Last year Ukraine started bringing them down with special FPV interceptor drones, linked to a network of sensors and smart control software which vectored interceptor operators efficiently on to targets. Since last summer, hundreds of videos have been posted showing Russian drones being downed and Russia’s capabilities have been serious eroded.

Shaheds, Iranian-designed drones with a seven-foot wingspan and a hundred-pound warhead, are attacking Ukraine in increasing numbers. But the vast majority – roughly 96% in January – are being brought down. Ukraine’s key innovation has again been the development of a sensor network – including thousands of networked microphones on poles – and central control software. This time the tip of the spear is made up of mobile fire groups, units equipped with searchlights and automatic cannon or heavy machineguns. These are moved into position to shoot down the slow-moving Shaheds as they arrive.

The solution to glide bombs may look like a cross between these two. In the case of glide bombs, the chief requirement is to protect positions close to the front line, so assets can be more concentrated. These will include radar or other sensors to detect the incoming bombs, a control system to identify threats and the closest defenders, and some from of effector. These might be small, low-cost guided missiles similar to the laser-guided Vampire missile system supplied by the U.S., computer-controlled anti-aircraft guns like the German Skynex or a novel form of high-speed interceptor drone like Wild Hornets’ new Sting interceptor. Any of these might incorporate the sort of AI that NATO proposes to give a high hit rate.

As the NATO document points out, scalability is key. Every single glide bomb that can be intercepted will save lives. But knocking down a significant fraction of them will rob Russia of a vital offensive capability and change the shape of the conflict as Russia has become dependent on the firepower they provide to make advances.

A successful intercept system would make a big difference to Ukraine. It would also have wider effects. The U.S. Air Force, for example, relies heavily on JDAM guided bombs. If these suddenly became ineffective, America’s capacity to wage war would be severely impacted.

 

[Dezbelief]

Russia's primitive glide bombs are still outmatching Ukraine's air defenses, killing more civilians

When a glide bomb exploded at an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia on Jan. 8, the 13 dead, and 122 injured marked the highest number of civilian casualties in a Russian attack on Ukraine in almost two years. Despite being one of the most primitive and numerous weapons in the Russian Air...

kyivindependent.com

When a glide bomb exploded at an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia on Jan. 8, the 13 dead, and 122 injured marked the highest number of civilian casualties in a Russian attack on Ukraine in almost two years.

Despite being one of the most primitive and numerous weapons in the Russian Air Force's arsenal, Ukraine's sophisticated, Western-supplied air defense systems are still ill-equipped to deal with the threat they pose.

Compounding the problem, Russia continues to modify and adapt its glide bombs, increasing their range and destructive power, meaning more and more Ukrainian towns and cities are coming under threat.

"Aerial glide bombs have become one of the greatest threats to civilians in cities along the frontline," Danielle Bell, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), said in a statement on Jan. 9.

They are also one of the main reasons why the number of killed and injured in 2024 increased by 30 per cent compared with 2023."

According to HRMMU figures, Russian glide bombs killed 360 Ukrainian civilians in 2024, and injured 1,861, a threefold increase in fatalities, and a sixfold increase in injuries compared to 2023.

Russian forces employ various sizes of glide bombs weighing 250, 500, and 1,000 kilograms (kg). The most powerful in Russia's arsenal is the FAB-3000, a 3,000-kilogram high-explosive bomb, which the Russian Defense Ministry claimed in March had gone into mass production.

In July, it released footage of what it said was a FAB-3000 being dropped on Ukrainian territory for the first time, saying it has a combat power that "cannot be ignored."

Crucially, converting an unguided "dumb bomb" into a glide bomb is cheap. Each conversion costs around $20,000, far less than cruise and ballistic missiles that cost millions of dollars to produce.

Glide bombs are most effective against static targets, including bridges, command posts, bunkers, and weapons depots, and Russia has used them to great effect on the front lines as they advance slowly in eastern Ukraine.

"Despite many problems and shortfalls, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) is learning, and adapting its tactics in a constantly changing combat environment," Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent.

But Moscow has also used them to devastating effect against Ukrainian population centers, with Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts particularly hard hit.

 

[the moops]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

If the US pulled out support and the EU didn't step up, Russia would have Ukraine eventually.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

I'm not an expert. They aren't charging across the front in Bradley's and Abrams with f16 cover. They are winning by drones that are mostly diy. Russia is depleted to the point where they have no significant armour to advance with.

you said ukraine would do just fine without us and then state russia is winning.

If Russia is winning with our support, how can you possibly think ukraine would be okay without our support?

 

[culdeus]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

I'm not an expert. They aren't charging across the front in Bradley's and Abrams with f16 cover. They are winning by drones that are mostly diy. Russia is depleted to the point where they have no significant armour to advance with.

you said ukraine would do just fine without us and then state russia is winning.

If Russia is winning with our support, how can you possibly think ukraine would be okay without our support?

I can't really follow this question at all.

 

[BassNBrew]

Still can’t believe that (dictator) Zelensky started this war. What crazy town world is he actually living in?

Still can’t believe that (dictator) Zelensky started this war. What crazy town world is he actually living in?

Well, if our fearless leader said it, it must be true!

Please refrain from this so the thread doesn't get locked and we get information like the posts @Dezbelief just shared.

 

[Chadstroma]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

 

[Chadstroma]

Still can’t believe that (dictator) Zelensky started this war. What crazy town world is he actually living in?

Well, if our fearless leader said it, it must be true!

Shut this crap down. We have worked hard to keep this thread from getting locked up. Do not ruin it.

 

[TLEF316]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

I don't really have anything against Europe, but part of the reason they get to have all kinds of fancy social programs and take 8 week summer vacations is because our absurd military spending has kept them safe for the past 50 years.

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

 

[Chadstroma]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

I don't really have anything against Europe, but part of the reason they get to have all kinds of fancy social programs and take 8 week summer vacations is because our absurd military spending has kept them safe for the past 50 years.

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

We can keep the spigot going well beyond Russia's ability to keep going. It would be much cheaper to spend that money now than letting Russia have a 'win'. I have said this many times before, for us, this is much more about showing China that invading Taiwan is a very bad idea that would not end well for them in any scenario. The more we relent in Ukraine, the more the lesson can be seen by China that if they just outlast us, we will fold. It would be a horrible miscalculation and it would result in a direct war with China (we can not strategically allow China to take Taiwan as a very real life or death national security issue for us) which will cost not only much more in dollars but many American lives.

Further, once Russia has the ability to sell it's natural resources, it will rearm and refit. It will then continue it's empire building. If you do not understand what Russia has done from Transnistria to South Ossetia. Putin has been militaristic from day 1 with a false flag operation bombing his own people in apartment buildings and blaming Chechen militants (it is pretty much a given that it was a false flag operation as there was zero evidence of Chechen involvement and a couple of weeks later local police caught FSB agents planting another bomb). Russia will continue it's asymmetric warfare to bring under it's influence more and more. Most likely, Belarus would be the next 'safe' target to absorb it after getting rid of the puppet government but they will look beyond their current borders such as Moldova. A very aggressive move would be to take the Baltics and hope for a quick negotiation to end the war with NATO, keeping it's nukes as it's ace in the hole to keep NATO from fully engaging and destroying it.

Beyond that, how the peace is made is important because a weak Ukraine without any security guarantees would still be Russia's number one target. It is extremely hard to defend that open plain that is Ukraine as we have seen. More permanent territorial gains only puts Ukraine in an untenable position and then if you have, say UK troops, placed in Ukraine- the risks of a larger war is multiplied by huge factors.

We can not be shortsighted on this. The dollars spent is well spent now to keep Russia from 'winning'.

 

[TLEF316]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

I don't really have anything against Europe, but part of the reason they get to have all kinds of fancy social programs and take 8 week summer vacations is because our absurd military spending has kept them safe for the past 50 years.

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

We can keep the spigot going well beyond Russia's ability to keep going. It would be much cheaper to spend that money now than letting Russia have a 'win'. I have said this many times before, for us, this is much more about showing China that invading Taiwan is a very bad idea that would not end well for them in any scenario. The more we relent in Ukraine, the more the lesson can be seen by China that if they just outlast us, we will fold. It would be a horrible miscalculation and it would result in a direct war with China (we can not strategically allow China to take Taiwan as a very real life or death national security issue for us) which will cost not only much more in dollars but many American lives.

Further, once Russia has the ability to sell it's natural resources, it will rearm and refit. It will then continue it's empire building. If you do not understand what Russia has done from Transnistria to South Ossetia. Putin has been militaristic from day 1 with a false flag operation bombing his own people in apartment buildings and blaming Chechen militants (it is pretty much a given that it was a false flag operation as there was zero evidence of Chechen involvement and a couple of weeks later local police caught FSB agents planting another bomb). Russia will continue it's asymmetric warfare to bring under it's influence more and more. Most likely, Belarus would be the next 'safe' target to absorb it after getting rid of the puppet government but they will look beyond their current borders such as Moldova. A very aggressive move would be to take the Baltics and hope for a quick negotiation to end the war with NATO, keeping it's nukes as it's ace in the hole to keep NATO from fully engaging and destroying it.

Beyond that, how the peace is made is important because a weak Ukraine without any security guarantees would still be Russia's number one target. It is extremely hard to defend that open plain that is Ukraine as we have seen. More permanent territorial gains only puts Ukraine in an untenable position and then if you have, say UK troops, placed in Ukraine- the risks of a larger war is multiplied by huge factors.

We can not be shortsighted on this. The dollars spent is well spent now to keep Russia from 'winning'.

Certainly appreciate all that. Just hate that we have to carry such a huge percentage of the burden. (as we always have).

 

[Sleestak]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

I don't really have anything against Europe, but part of the reason they get to have all kinds of fancy social programs and take 8 week summer vacations is because our absurd military spending has kept them safe for the past 50 years.

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

You don't shut off the spigot in the middle of a freaking war.

 

[beer 30]

Certainly appreciate all that. Just hate that we have to carry such a huge percentage of the burden. (as we always have).

We did kinda sign up for it, Bretton Woods Agreement. That said, it's time to dial it back. We (US) can't continue to support this.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

I'm not an expert. They aren't charging across the front in Bradley's and Abrams with f16 cover. They are winning by drones that are mostly diy. Russia is depleted to the point where they have no significant armour to advance with.

you said ukraine would do just fine without us and then state russia is winning.

If Russia is winning with our support, how can you possibly think ukraine would be okay without our support?

I can't really follow this question at all.

if ukraine is losing with our support, how will they win, or "do just fine", without our support?

 

[Orange&Blue]

Certainly appreciate all that. Just hate that we have to carry such a huge percentage of the burden. (as we always have).

We did kinda sign up for it, Bretton Woods Agreement. That said, it's time to dial it back. We (US) can't continue to support this.

yeap. that agreement is also one of the primary reasons the dollar is king around the world.

 

[culdeus]

I get sense Ukraine can do just fine without US support. Russia seems incapable of making any advances into the drone zone.

what is this sense based on?

I'm not an expert. They aren't charging across the front in Bradley's and Abrams with f16 cover. They are winning by drones that are mostly diy. Russia is depleted to the point where they have no significant armour to advance with.

you said ukraine would do just fine without us and then state russia is winning.

If Russia is winning with our support, how can you possibly think ukraine would be okay without our support?

I can't really follow this question at all.

if ukraine is losing with our support, how will they win, or "do just fine", without our support?

I don't really think they are losing. Those are your words.

 

[the moops]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

 

[Stoneworker]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

To @BassNBrew 's point, just stop with these transparent political innuendos unless you want to get this thing locked

 

[the moops]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

To @BassNBrew 's point, just stop with these transparent political innuendos unless you want to get this thing locked

huh?
It's not political innuendo, it's just a fact. There are people who think that Ukraine losing the war is an outcome that is tolerable

 

[Stoneworker]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

To @BassNBrew 's point, just stop with these transparent political innuendos unless you want to get this thing locked

huh?
It's not political innuendo, it's just a fact. There are people who think that Ukraine losing the war is an outcome that is tolerable

Whatever you say

 

[the moops]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

To @BassNBrew 's point, just stop with these transparent political innuendos unless you want to get this thing locked

huh?
It's not political innuendo, it's just a fact. There are people who think that Ukraine losing the war is an outcome that is tolerable

Whatever you say

I don't know why you are all pissy about this comment. Do you think the world is united in their thoughts on the war?

 

[Captain Cranks]

Whatever you say

Why do you think his statement is political?

 

[Joe Schmo]

Whatever you say

Why do you think his statement is political?

If I were to guess I would say it might be because one person actively working against a positive outcome for Ukraine is the sitting President of the United States. That this is factual may also be why it is political and therefore unacceptable in here.

 

[Stoneworker]

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

I don't think it is obvious that everyone wants them to win, that's part of the thing

To @BassNBrew 's point, just stop with these transparent political innuendos unless you want to get this thing locked

huh?
It's not political innuendo, it's just a fact. There are people who think that Ukraine losing the war is an outcome that is tolerable

Whatever you say

I don't know why you are all pissy about this comment. Do you think the world is united in their thoughts on the war?

If it is not political, then please explain exactly who in the Western world doesn't want Ukraine to win, and more importantly how such people are in any position at all to influence the outcome of the war.

Include sources and links for those of us for whom it is not obvious that the vast majority want Ukraine to win.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Russia and the US meeting to discuss settling the war without Ukraine's input

 

[Captain Cranks]

If it is not political, then please explain exactly who in the Western world doesn't want Ukraine to win, and more importantly how such people are in any position at all to influence the outcome of the war.

Include sources and links for those of us for whom it is not obvious that the vast majority want Ukraine to win.

I'd suggest typing "views on Ukraine" in Google and see what you find.

 

[Stoneworker]

If it is not political, then please explain exactly who in the Western world doesn't want Ukraine to win, and more importantly how such people are in any position at all to influence the outcome of the war.

Include sources and links for those of us for whom it is not obvious that the vast majority want Ukraine to win.

I'd suggest typing "views on Ukraine" in Google and see what you find.

I'd suggest you let the person who made the statement answer the question

 

[thecatch]

Europe does not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine with enough to keep fighting. Europe, since the end of WWII, has really leaned on the US to provide security. If Germany punched it's weight then along UK and France as the big partners and Italy, Poland and Spain being the second tier as well as the rest of NATO then Europe could easily take care of it's own security. Germany, however, has a pathetic military that is outdated, in disrepair and ill trained.

I am nervous about how the US will approach Ukraine, hoping for the best but one thing is very clear. Europe is starting to understand that it can not rely on the US to provide it's security for them and they will need to step up. Historically, the vast majority of NATO nations spent well below the 2% target though that has risen pretty much across the alliance. Pretty much every country in the alliance except Poland and the US needs to double or nearly double their military expenditures to be in a position of strength,

But no, Europe may have the willpower but they do not have the capacity to continue to supply Ukraine without the US. They simply do not have the ability to do so.

I don't really have anything against Europe, but part of the reason they get to have all kinds of fancy social programs and take 8 week summer vacations is because our absurd military spending has kept them safe for the past 50 years.

Obviously we all want Ukraine to win, but at some point you just have to shut off the spigot.

We can keep the spigot going well beyond Russia's ability to keep going. It would be much cheaper to spend that money now than letting Russia have a 'win'. I have said this many times before, for us, this is much more about showing China that invading Taiwan is a very bad idea that would not end well for them in any scenario. The more we relent in Ukraine, the more the lesson can be seen by China that if they just outlast us, we will fold. It would be a horrible miscalculation and it would result in a direct war with China (we can not strategically allow China to take Taiwan as a very real life or death national security issue for us) which will cost not only much more in dollars but many American lives.

Further, once Russia has the ability to sell it's natural resources, it will rearm and refit. It will then continue it's empire building. If you do not understand what Russia has done from Transnistria to South Ossetia. Putin has been militaristic from day 1 with a false flag operation bombing his own people in apartment buildings and blaming Chechen militants (it is pretty much a given that it was a false flag operation as there was zero evidence of Chechen involvement and a couple of weeks later local police caught FSB agents planting another bomb). Russia will continue it's asymmetric warfare to bring under it's influence more and more. Most likely, Belarus would be the next 'safe' target to absorb it after getting rid of the puppet government but they will look beyond their current borders such as Moldova. A very aggressive move would be to take the Baltics and hope for a quick negotiation to end the war with NATO, keeping it's nukes as it's ace in the hole to keep NATO from fully engaging and destroying it.

Beyond that, how the peace is made is important because a weak Ukraine without any security guarantees would still be Russia's number one target. It is extremely hard to defend that open plain that is Ukraine as we have seen. More permanent territorial gains only puts Ukraine in an untenable position and then if you have, say UK troops, placed in Ukraine- the risks of a larger war is multiplied by huge factors.

We can not be shortsighted on this. The dollars spent is well spent now to keep Russia from 'winning'.

Certainly appreciate all that. Just hate that we have to carry such a huge percentage of the burden. (as we always have).

Europe definitely needs to get more serious about its own security. There are long-term geopolitical consequences that flow from a re-armament of Europe, but I think we'll have to deal with those as they come as the current path doesn't seem to be sustainable.