***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (2 Viewers)

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Isn't that 100%*

*I'm really bad at math and statistics

Actually just the inverse percentage that the selected team would make the knockout rounds.  So not really a proxy of anything.

But I think we all understand that there's very few teams with non-trivial chances to win the tournament.  It might be as low as four (I'm not sure I'd take the field against Real, Barca, PSG, and Bayern).  That's going to mostly drive the cumulative percentage of other teams to win the tournament.  And of course, if you're one of those teams, the remaining 3 teams in your group are going to have a low chance to win the tournament.  Which means it's not really rating the toughness of the group if it shows Real with a relatively easy draw and Tottenham with a hard draw.  They're in the same group. 

You often have a group with two heavyweights and two whipping posts.  Because the other heavyweight might have a greater than 5% chance to win the tournament, this would seem to correlate to a "hard group."  But for those teams, it's just a matter of playing for the draws and spanking the minnows.  They are, IMO, the most boring groups you can get. 

Most true "groups of death", IMO, have one team that is pretty much assured of going through and then three teams that are pick em's for the second spot. 

 

[AAABatteries]

Well considering they don't have a home field advantage (Wembley ) I think they are at a big disadvantage.

FWIW Ladbrokes has Tot at 6:5 to advance and Dortmund at 1:2

I'm not just blowing smoke up Sinn's butt - Tottenham is a stronger, more disciplined side IMO.  I think they match up well with Dortmund.

 

[Sinn Fein]

It might be as low as four (I'm not sure I'd take the field against Real, Barca, PSG, and Bayern). 

Friendly wager - I'll take the field.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

What's with all the Dortmund disrespect?

Is this what @Kafka always feels like?

I'm not sure it's disrespect to note that it's been a few seasons since Dortmund won the BL or made the CL final.  They finished below Leipzig and only two points above Hoffenheim last year.  It's not as if they had a clearly superior GD to those two teams either .  They were  +32 and RBL and Hoff were +27.  Bayern were +67!  And Bayern were 18 points ahead of them in the table.  So they were light years below Bayern.

Tottenham were 7 points below Chelsea but a league best +60 in GD.  I think we can all agree that La Liga is the strongest league, by far, at this time.  But the Prem doesn't strike me as significantly easier than the Bundesliga

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Friendly wager - I'll take the field.

Always up for an avatar bet.  Just got to decide whether you'll be sporting Gervinho or Lord Bendtner.

 

[NewlyRetired]

I expect them to but had forgotten about Dele suspension.  That may makes things tough but I would still favor them for 2nd over Dortmund

It is worth noting that Dortmund won their CL group last year and that group included Real Madrid.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Always up for an avatar bet.  Just got to decide whether you'll be sporting Gervinho or Lord Bendtner.

Avatar bet it is...I think this sets up nicely for one of the Manchester clubs to win.  At least, thats what my thoughts on the field boiled down to...

PSG and Bayern in the same group makes for a difficult knockout stage match for one of them, and I think Barça is going to have an off-year.  PSG probably have the easiest route - since they can ignore the league all season, and Madrid will obviously take an upset to knock out - but I am banking on United or City to focus on CL next spring...

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Avatar bet it is...I think this sets up nicely for one of the Manchester clubs to win.  At least, thats what my thoughts on the field boiled down to...

PSG and Bayern in the same group makes for a difficult knockout stage match for one of them, and I think Barça is going to have an off-year.  PSG probably have the easiest route - since they can ignore the league all season, and Madrid will obviously take an upset to knock out - but I am banking on United or City to focus on CL next spring...

Real finished second to Dortmund in their group last year.  They still won the competition.  I just don't see top heavy groups as a problem.  For PSG and Bayern, it's stomp Anderlecht and Celtic and then play four glorified friendlies against each other. 

 

[Sinn Fein]

Real finished second to Dortmund in their group last year.  They still won the competition.  I just don't see top heavy groups as a problem.  For PSG and Bayern, it's stomp Anderlecht and Celtic and then play four glorified friendlies against each other. 

Yeah - its not an issue getting through - but finishing 2nd means you get a group winner in the first round - so slightly harder match than the group winner will get.

At that point, they are all difficult matches...

 

[Sinn Fein]

Push comes to shove - I think United will win the league, and Man City will win Champions League - and then Pep and Jose can argue about who had the better season.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Yeah - its not an issue getting through - but finishing 2nd means you get a group winner in the first round - so slightly harder match than the group winner will get.

At that point, they are all difficult matches...

To win the tournament, you're still going to have to presumably beat those teams in a knockout tie.  And that matchup would presumably increase your chances of a relatively easy QF draw.

 

[Kafka]

@Kafka - don't put anyone's eye out with that thing

 

[Sinn Fein]

Spurs schedule in 2nd half of October:

Oct 17 - Real Madrid (A)
Oct 22 - Liverpool (H)
Oct 28 - United (A)
Nov 1 - Real Madrid (H)

Concentrating on Novembertm

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Apropos to both @Eephus's comment and Sinn and my friendly wager, here is a chart from 538. Awesomely, if you add up Real, Bayern, Barca, and PSG's chances to win the tourney versus the field, it's 50/50. 

 

[Eephus]

Apropos to both @Eephus's comment and Sinn and my friendly wager, here is a chart from 538. Awesomely, if you add up Real, Bayern, Barca, and PSG's chances to win the tourney versus the field, it's 50/50. 

I'm disappointed that the word count on the methodology article is only about 1000 words, not 12000.  Maybe they could add a section on the best burrito in Donetsk

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Oct 18 - Champions League Group stage

Chelsea vs Roma

Oct 31 - Champions League Group stage

Roma vs Chelsea

circle these dates

@Kafka v @Ned

Can't wait for All Hallows' Eve in Roma.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

I'm disappointed that the word count on the methodology article is only about 1000 words, not 12000.  Maybe they could add a section on the best burrito in Donetsk

I don't think I've ever read an actual 538 article.  I check out the graphs occasionally.  And I cringe every time I see one of their "data analysis approach to non-analytic topic" articles promoted on Twitter.  I think the current on en vogue is about The Bachelor. 

 

[AAABatteries]

circle these dates

@Kafka v @Ned

Can't wait for All Hallows' Eve in Roma.

They can burn the entire state of Delaware down - may take a whole day!

 

[Sinn Fein]

They can burn the entire state of Delaware down - may take a whole day!

Slow burn?

 

[Ned]

Oct 18 - Champions League Group stage

Chelsea vs Roma

Oct 31 - Champions League Group stage

Roma vs Chelsea

circle these dates

@Kafka v @Ned

Can't wait for All Hallows' Eve in Roma.

My youngest will be sure to be wearing his full Willian kit.

 

[Ned]

They can burn the entire state of Delaware down - may take a whole day!

Slow burn?

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA You mother####ers are so funny with your small state jokes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Spoiler

we were always first, #####es

 

[Sinn Fein]

My youngest will be sure to be wearing his full Willian kit.

text I sent to @The Gator this summer:

Reminds me though little kid at my daughters swim meet came up to me yesterday wearing a Chelsea Willian jersey, saw I was wearing my Spurs cap - said I guess willian made the right choice, huh? Never wanted to drop-kick a 10-yo more...

 

[Ned]

text I sent to @The Gator this summer:

LOOK AT ME I HAVE GATOR'S DIGITS!!!!!

 

[Sinn Fein]

LOOK AT ME I HAVE GATOR'S DIGITS!!!!!

meh - that only because he shares a phone with his wife

 

[gianmarco]

This was just a practice, run, correct?

I, don't, think, so.

 

[NewlyRetired]

1968 CBS TV ad for an NASL game.  I believe it was advertising the first NASL game ever on TV.

Be warned, this is not a Don Draper special

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuO-7EM9Lx4

 

[Sammy3469]

Willian is popular with the FBG kid crowd I see  

 

[The Gator]

meh - that only because he shares a phone with his wife

 

[roadkill1292]

"Tottenham will get knocked out of the Champions League so that they could get on with the more serious challenge of qualifying for the Champions League."

 

[B Maverick]

United travel to Moscow for a Wed 9/27/17 match. Its in between Sat 9/23 away at Southampton and Sat 9/30 at home vs Palace.  Neither EPL game will be a pushover but at least neither vs the other top 6.  

Looks like a busy Sept for United though.  Will Zlatan be ready?

International Break then
Sat 9/9 @ Stoke
Tue 9/12 vs Basel
Sunday 9/17 vs Everton
Tue 9/19 vs Burton Albion (league Cup)
Sat 9/23 @ Southampton
Wed 9/27 @ Moscow
Sat 9/30 vs Palace
International Break

Then off to ANFIELD sat 10/14

 

[Eephus]

United travel to Moscow for a Wed 9/27/17 match. Its in between Sat 9/23 away at Southampton and Sat 9/30 at home vs Palace.  Neither EPL game will be a pushover but at least neither vs the other top 6.  

Looks like a busy Sept for United though.  Will Zlatan be ready?

International Break then
Sat 9/9 @ Stoke
Tue 9/12 vs Basel
Sunday 9/17 vs Everton
Tue 9/19 vs Burton Albion (league Cup)
Sat 9/23 @ Southampton
Wed 9/27 @ Moscow
Sat 9/30 vs Palace
International Break

Then off to ANFIELD sat 10/14

Burton Albion is a classic trap game

 

[Sinn Fein]

Ajax will be out of Europe for the first time since 1967...

 

[B Maverick]

Burton Albion is a classic trap game

MK Dons

 

[Tom Hagen]

"Tottenham will get knocked out of the Champions League so that they could get on with the more serious challenge of qualifying for the Champions League."

We call that the Arsenal plan

 

[roadkill1292]

Burton Albion is a classic trap game

And Soton just got bounced from the NIT Cup by Wolves.

 

[El Floppo]

United travel to Moscow for a Wed 9/27/17 match. Its in between Sat 9/23 away at Southampton and Sat 9/30 at home vs Palace.  Neither EPL game will be a pushover but at least neither vs the other top 6.  

Looks like a busy Sept for United though.  Will Zlatan be ready?

International Break then
Sat 9/9 @ Stoke
Tue 9/12 vs Basel
Sunday 9/17 vs Everton
Tue 9/19 vs Burton Albion (league Cup)
Sat 9/23 @ Southampton
Wed 9/27 @ Moscow
Sat 9/30 vs Palace
International Break

Then off to ANFIELD sat 10/14

I thought the zlat wasn't ready until Jan? 

 

[El Floppo]

S####horpe United... STILL undefeated.  

 

[El Floppo]

and I guess Celtic have kept up their 9 year undefeated streak against thistles and whatnot.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I thought the zlat wasn't ready until Jan? 

I think he will be eased in around December

 

[B Maverick]

I thought the zlat wasn't ready until Jan? 

Zlatan is ready, its the world thats not

(you are probably right but the training he seems to be doing on video, it could be sooner)

 

[Mjolnirs]

First name out of the hat today

Sent that to my favorite Gunners fan.  I'm sure he will appreciate it.

 

[Eephus]

And Soton just got bounced from the NIT Cup by Wolves.

Leaves them more time to focus on the VvD saga

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I thought the zlat wasn't ready until Jan? 

Zlat is ready for January, but January isn't ready for Zlat

(This Zlat wordplay joke always works, right?)

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I think he will be eased in around December

Zlatan wont be eased in around December, rather December will be eased in around Zlatan

(yes, always works)

 

[Kafka]

They can burn the entire state of Delaware down - may take a whole day!

Settle down, Dobby Bodd.

 

[Kafka]

My youngest will be sure to be wearing his full Willian kit.

Wait...its Chelsea now?!  What happened to Watford, fencejumper?

 

[Kafka]

My youngest will be sure to be wearing his full Willian kit.

As will you, Ned, as will you...

 

[Kafka]

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA You mother####ers are so funny with your small state jokes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Spoiler

we were always first, #####es

 

[Ned]

Wait...its Chelsea now?!  What happened to Watford, fencejumper?

I chose Watford to be different from my kids just so we can talk smack. 

8yr old Chelsea

11yr old Arsenal

as of right now only 1 of those 3 are in the top 4.  

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I chose Watford to be different from my kids just so we can talk smack. 

I've wasted a fair bit of time trolling ebay for a Jay DeMerit shirt - Watford club legend from Green Bay, Wisconsin.