Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Actually just the inverse percentage that the selected team would make the knockout rounds. So not really a proxy of anything.Isn't that 100%*
*I'm really bad at math and statistics
But I think we all understand that there's very few teams with non-trivial chances to win the tournament. It might be as low as four (I'm not sure I'd take the field against Real, Barca, PSG, and Bayern). That's going to mostly drive the cumulative percentage of other teams to win the tournament. And of course, if you're one of those teams, the remaining 3 teams in your group are going to have a low chance to win the tournament. Which means it's not really rating the toughness of the group if it shows Real with a relatively easy draw and Tottenham with a hard draw. They're in the same group.
You often have a group with two heavyweights and two whipping posts. Because the other heavyweight might have a greater than 5% chance to win the tournament, this would seem to correlate to a "hard group." But for those teams, it's just a matter of playing for the draws and spanking the minnows. They are, IMO, the most boring groups you can get.
Most true "groups of death", IMO, have one team that is pretty much assured of going through and then three teams that are pick em's for the second spot.