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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ramsay Hunt Experience
- Start date
Jose can you see?
@otb_lifer - just a tip if you are inclined to make these kind of wagers - but I'd put a little money on Pochettino to be the first manager to leave/be fired...
@otb_lifer - just a tip if you are inclined to make these kind of wagers - but I'd put a little money on Pochettino to be the first manager to leave/be fired...
otb_lifer
Footballguy
HA!
i wish i could prop that, 'specially after ManU and TotSpur burnt a ####load of my coin this weekend
gb Arsena/Liverpool, Chelsea/Pookie, and City for keeping me ahead this past weekend despite the stellar suckage of those aforementioned dogs :X
after three weeks of observing this league for the first time, it's quite evident that City and Liverpool are on an entirely different tier above the rest ... don't think that's such a radical revelation, mind you, but ... it should be a two team race, with the edge going to City because i believe they play a more disciplined style, and are tighter on defense.
and they're both a ton of fun to watch ... their ball movement and sets are everything that's great about this sport - i mentioned in the gameday thread that City was clinincal, i'd add that Liverpool is explosive .... been a pleasure watching both seasons unfold.
i think Arsenal is next
it's a huuuuge step down from that top two, but, Gunners are top of next tier, imo - they're gonna score a ton going forward once all the signees are acclimated and on the same page - another fun team to watch. has not been easy making bank thus far - but i am ahead of the game thanks to Liverpool and Pookie and Barnes (none of those three have let me down yet)
did i mention it beats the NFL to #### in both wagering and viewing? 'cuz it does.
big fan
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I don't gamble on sports much any more, and never did go all-in even when I had a couple accounts, but I've always thought the lines on Euro footy are probably a bit sharper than purely American sports like helmet-football just because of the massive number of betters and betting houses that offer different lines for those games. Betting on European soccer games has been legal and extremely popular for many decades. I think over half the shirt sponsors in the EPL and Championship are gambling companies. It is so ingrained in the sport, I've always assumed its a more efficient market.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
spot on - it's a plethora of props and 'caps and teases and fixtures - such a varied slate ... hell, the EPL matches usually feature 300+ markets to choose from, at least.CletiusMaximus said:
that being said ... with such great association and participation come opportunities for great malfeasance and shennanigans- not saying it's all rigged, and i'm not crying over lost coin - i've been the beneficiary of some real head scratchers, as well ... to quote Vermeil after the Herm Edwards "Miracle of the Meadowlands" victory "sure, we won a couple we shouldn't have ... but we also lost a few we should've won"
i've been betting the ponies pretty religiously for 30+ years, so i am no stranger to having a short memory/thick skin when it comes to getting the #### over bad beats and moving on with it ... but i'm also wise enough to know that expecting all to be on the "up and up" and square is a pipe dream ... the key is in knowing where/when to strike. i won't touch any South/Central American matches, nor any more of the bullring Eastern Euro leagues ... ditto for China - trends are obvious, wagering is foolish.
anyways, apologies for the 'jack, footy folk ... but the betting aspect of this gig is fascinating - more challenging than the track.
carry on.
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-postotb_lifer said:
You can still get 25-1 odds in some places...
I wouldn't put a lot of coin on it - but I am hearing about rumblings from within about "lost the dressing room" - from which you can almost never recover. Poch's discontent has been going on for a year now, and it just seems to be growing.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
sure, the Euro books will market what PePe had for dinner last night
but that prop not being offered through my guys
Bolded may be true for the EPL, maybe, but the market is in no way as near efficient as it is for the NFL simply due to sheer volume.CletiusMaximus said:
On Sunday afternoons, there may be 15 games on the slate total. Split over 3 time periods.
On Saturdays in mid-season, there are upwards of 1,200+ games to be wagered on in soccer. Even in just the big 4 you can easily get 25+ games. Further, there is shorter turn time, as the NFL runs once/week, and most big soccer teams play 2x per week (sometimes 3). There is much more time to get money down on NFL and even college football games than soccer games. There is massive market inefficiencies to be found in soccer as the injury table is much less transparent than the NFL.
B Maverick
Footballguy
United were very pedestrian and deserved to lose that match despite all their possession. AWB and Lindelof were both poor (and despite the announcers insistence, Lindelof was not at fault for the goal). Lingard is useless (Bruno had 3 assists in his game over the weekend which is 3 more then Jessie has had in 2019). At 26 he is not going to get better or change. All he did was ball chase all over the park, from man to man. Looked like an AYSO player. No vision, not reason for anything he does. He is my new Young/Fellaini, needs to be sat down.
United are going to struggle vs teams that park the bus, no creativity in the 10 spot. Gomes and Peirera need a look.
The Ref and VAR were just as poor. James booked for getting kicked (the poor calls are getting him a rep for diving when both times the def made contact). Cahill not shown red for denying a clear goal scoring opp (NO, a defender 2 yards UPfield does not give cover, esp with the quickness of Martial and Rashford), a 2nd PK not given when Martial is taken down in the box (which would probably have been missed anyway). Palace boots a ball into the stands and gets rewarded with a throw in.
Not sure which was worse, United or the Ref/VAR.
And yes Rashford should have taken the PK. And the one last week. He missed. So be it. Move on to the next guy (Martial's turn?).
United are going to struggle vs teams that park the bus, no creativity in the 10 spot. Gomes and Peirera need a look.
The Ref and VAR were just as poor. James booked for getting kicked (the poor calls are getting him a rep for diving when both times the def made contact). Cahill not shown red for denying a clear goal scoring opp (NO, a defender 2 yards UPfield does not give cover, esp with the quickness of Martial and Rashford), a 2nd PK not given when Martial is taken down in the box (which would probably have been missed anyway). Palace boots a ball into the stands and gets rewarded with a throw in.
Not sure which was worse, United or the Ref/VAR.
And yes Rashford should have taken the PK. And the one last week. He missed. So be it. Move on to the next guy (Martial's turn?).
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Real Betis scores against Barca.
Messi's son gets confused on who to cheer for.
Suarez sets him straight
https://twitter.com/TroIISports/status/1165982147968004096?s=20
Messi's son gets confused on who to cheer for.
Suarez sets him straight
https://twitter.com/TroIISports/status/1165982147968004096?s=20
otb_lifer
Footballguy
hate to belabor this, so, indulge a quasi rant here, thanks
perfect example of dodgy goings on yesterday in the Irish Premier League - heavy fave Dundalk is off the board for any straight action vs Uni College Dublin (Dundalk the farrrrr superior squad, joke of a matchup) - ergo, the only way for punters to get a piece of this was via props - hell, ya couldn't even wager Dundalk for clean sheet (also off the board).
so ya pop the spread (-3.5 at -110), Dundalk total goals (o3.5 at -125, o4.5 at +170) and sit back.
Dundalk comes out the gate on fire, up 3-nil at the 36' mark - the cash is in the bag, right? the wagered props hitting are fait accompli - in spades.
can definitely see folks plunking tons of live coin on Dundalk to hit for 5 or 6, etc ... droppingd shekels like fools.
but, wait a second here .... the second half is dragging on, and ... nada. 70' still 3-nil ... and on we go, surely they pop another to cover the spread at least, no?
3-nil final.
the books cleaned the #### up. dirty pool here.
Dundalk only made ONE sub, and that was shortly after their first goal ... not like they emptied the bench "good show, lads, now take the afternoon off!" nope.
your telling me that, for the better part of 60', this team was all of a sudden neutered? put the cue in the rack and decided to play tiddlwinks?
something was amiss there, those Dundalk boys took a dive. of this i'm certain.
/rant.
meh.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
fair enuff, but the context of how i couched the post i quoted illuminates the shadiness.
upsets happen, force mejeure is to be expected in certain circumstances ... but to think that example isn't textbook diving is missing the bigger picture, imo.
anyways, it's a beautiful game - edumication has been hard, but gonna be worth it.
carry on, lads
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
CL football for the 3rd(?) year running, r/u in the league two years ago and the CL last year -- and he's lost the locker room? You'd think they love the guy.
I can understand why he might not be happy, but the team and ownership seem like they should be pleased.
Jaysus
Good times!
I love that 3000Real Betis scores against Barca.
Messi's son gets confused on who to cheer for.
Suarez sets him straight
https://twitter.com/TroIISports/status/1165982147968004096?s=20
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
i was just reading about Palermo. They are starting over in Serie D this season with a 165 other amateur teams.
They had 20k fans at the first game, which is typically unheard of at this low level in Italy. 8 teams in Serie A did not average 20k last year.
They had 20k fans at the first game, which is typically unheard of at this low level in Italy. 8 teams in Serie A did not average 20k last year.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
charvik
Footballguy
That has nothing to do with "match fixing". If "folks" are plunking coing on Dundalk to hit for 5 or 6, that sounds like a lack of understanding of football.hate to belabor this, so, indulge a quasi rant here, thanks
perfect example of dodgy goings on yesterday in the Irish Premier League - heavy fave Dundalk is off the board for any straight action vs Uni College Dublin (Dundalk the farrrrr superior squad, joke of a matchup) - ergo, the only way for punters to get a piece of this was via props - hell, ya couldn't even wager Dundalk for clean sheet (also off the board).
so ya pop the spread (-3.5 at -110), Dundalk total goals (o3.5 at -125, o4.5 at +170) and sit back.
Dundalk comes out the gate on fire, up 3-nil at the 36' mark - the cash is in the bag, right? the wagered props hitting are fait accompli - in spades.
can definitely see folks plunking tons of live coin on Dundalk to hit for 5 or 6, etc ... droppingd shekels like fools.
but, wait a second here .... the second half is dragging on, and ... nada. 70' still 3-nil ... and on we go, surely they pop another to cover the spread at least, no?
3-nil final.
the books cleaned the #### up. dirty pool here.
Dundalk only made ONE sub, and that was shortly after their first goal ... not like they emptied the bench "good show, lads, now take the afternoon off!" nope.
your telling me that, for the better part of 60', this team was all of a sudden neutered? put the cue in the rack and decided to play tiddlwinks?
something was amiss there, those Dundalk boys took a dive. of this i'm certain.
/rant.
meh.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
orly?
set aside the plunking on 5 or 6 ... we talkin' about not covering the spread after notching THREE in the first 35 minutes ... sorry, that's flat out nonsense.
"hey, 'Dalky ... ya cover that spread Monday and yer fookin' nephew Seamus winds up fookin' legless up in fookin' Sligo! YA FOLLOW?"
"i follow"
El Floppo
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
mah bad, fellas ... in the history of sports/wagering there has never been a case of fixing or point shaving, etc.
thanks.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I think you may have a gambling problemhate to belabor this, so, indulge a quasi rant here, thanks
perfect example of dodgy goings on yesterday in the Irish Premier League - heavy fave Dundalk is off the board for any straight action vs Uni College Dublin (Dundalk the farrrrr superior squad, joke of a matchup) - ergo, the only way for punters to get a piece of this was via props - hell, ya couldn't even wager Dundalk for clean sheet (also off the board).
so ya pop the spread (-3.5 at -110), Dundalk total goals (o3.5 at -125, o4.5 at +170) and sit back.
Dundalk comes out the gate on fire, up 3-nil at the 36' mark - the cash is in the bag, right? the wagered props hitting are fait accompli - in spades.
can definitely see folks plunking tons of live coin on Dundalk to hit for 5 or 6, etc ... droppingd shekels like fools.
but, wait a second here .... the second half is dragging on, and ... nada. 70' still 3-nil ... and on we go, surely they pop another to cover the spread at least, no?
3-nil final.
the books cleaned the #### up. dirty pool here.
Dundalk only made ONE sub, and that was shortly after their first goal ... not like they emptied the bench "good show, lads, now take the afternoon off!" nope.
your telling me that, for the better part of 60', this team was all of a sudden neutered? put the cue in the rack and decided to play tiddlwinks?
something was amiss there, those Dundalk boys took a dive. of this i'm certain.
/rant.
meh.
El Floppo
Footballguy
oh no- I'm sure you've got this all figured out and it's impossible for a team to score three times and then not again for another 60 minutes. highly fishy. highly unusual. dastardly. pernicious. pernicious knids.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
meh.I think you may have a gambling problem
Dundalk been busy cutting their teef with classy company in the Euro Cup qualifiers this summer, while Uni Dub is basically Little Sisters of the Poor.
Uni played Bohemians 10 days or so ago and lost 10-1 ... Bohemians next game was against Dundalk, and the 'Dalks smacked them up 6-2 (just as point of rerence here).
i been following this league closely whilst awaiting EPL to get underway - familiar enough to know that yesterday was a sham.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yes. i already copped to my misstep earlier ... should i publicly flog myself with a rubber hose?
asking for a friend
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charvik
Footballguy
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
this is not going well...
El Floppo
Footballguy
charvik
Footballguy
Not at all, but some of the posters in this thread have played football at a high level, some may have watched the game for 40+ years, and some have a lot more experience in the gambling world. We don't really care about the gambling aspect in here, generally, but we do care about the beautiful game.yes. i already copped to my misstep earlier ... should i publicly flog myself with a rubber hose?
asking for a friend
charvik
Footballguy
Maybe if they were in a more appetizing part of the country we could buy them for the FFA?
El Floppo
Footballguy
depends... what will you be wearing?yes. i already copped to my misstep earlier ... should i publicly flog myself with a rubber hose?
asking for a friend
otb_lifer
Footballguy
and i've called it beautiful up in here, because it is.
don't finger wag my ###, pal ... i can post what/wherever i choose, tyvm.
i highly doubt there are people in here with more gambling experience ... again, take your condescension and stick it elsewhere.
anyone who has wagered in their life and who doesn't see the possibility of fixing here is a damn fool.
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charvik
Footballguy
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CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
black nike boots, 2012 USMNT home kit, el tri colored underwear with pre-fab piss stains and post-fab skid marks...depends... what will you be wearing?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
fixes happen.
but explain to me how it happened here? I see more reasons for why the game wouldn't see more goals that make sense than for any that get me to match-fixing. 22 guys on the field, 4 refs, coaches, subs... takes a lot to get all of that lined up perfectly to somehow intentionally not score any more goals on either side. but based on your post, you're the guy in the know more than the rest of us damn fools in here.
charvik
Footballguy
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
if you go back to yesterday's posts, you'll see that there was a discussion on how huge the wagering is in Europe, so much so that there are sponsorships from certain books.
i followed up by saying it opens the door for impropriety- then after the Dundalk match i cited that as a potential case of the pratfalls.
i didn't scream or shout or cry "FIX!!!" .. i bought it up in a way that lamented the possibility, not condemned it.
i wasn't in here screaming FIX!! about United or TotSpur ... #### happens.
but to totally dismiss the example i cited as falderol or ignorance is short sighted and naive ... that's the way i see it.
El Floppo
Footballguy
yeah. ok.
think about how many games are going. think about how much it takes to fix a soccer game.
I'd be genuinely interested if you took this energy and found previous examples of proved match-fixing, and then gave some kind of evidence comparing those to this. because "a team stopped scoring goals" isn't remotely close to proof for me and is short-sighted, naive and yes- ignorant- to immediately make any kind of jump without. even if you've watched a couple weeks of this league and now consider yourself an expert.
much better teams lose. much better teams stop scoring goals. these things happen week in, week out, since the beginning of time.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
feel free to pm and set up discussing this in person ... i'm in the City 4 days a week, anytime you wanna make it happen.
maybe we catch a match and i can be "Yoda-ed"
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El Floppo
Footballguy
you've used a lot of words on this in here... without really presenting anything "proofy". not sure why a meeting or pm changes that- just post your thoughts here.
and I'm for the cornhole- but am disinterested in gambling... but if this was some kind of geraldo's capone's vault thing- I'm ####### there.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i've posted enough thoughts here ... as i said, edumicate me live, perhaps during a match. open invite.
CL for 4th year running, but...
Trouble between Poch and Levy started brewing before last season - over transfers. Depends on whose side you hear - Levy's side will tell you Spurs had money, and were willing to spend on players - but that the specific players Poch wanted were not attainable (Combination of not offering enough money, and/or the players not wanting Spurs). Levy's side will say it was Poch who refused 2nd/3rd choices - and that is why no transfers last season. Poch's side will say that Levy is too tight with the purse strings, and too difficult a negotiator to get deals done, and in a timely manner - and that adding roster-fillers is a waste of time/money.
It was a long season for Spurs it started with 12 players missing pre-season due to WC semis/final, which led to injuries, which led to overworked players. The CL run to the final really masked a meh season - and Poch was growing more weary by the day. Even leading up to the CL final, he was talking about leaving - and he was serious.
Now, fast forward through this summer - Levy got 1 deal done early, but left the other deals until the end of the window - which meant no pre-season, no opportunity to acclimate Lo Celso . (Sessegnon was injured so he was never going to be part of the pre-season).
Add to that, there is an on-going issue with Eriksen - who wants Real Madrid, but RM does not want him. He is on the last year of his deal, and won't sign a new contract - so tensions there. Toby Alderweireld on the last year of his deal - and no team took up his release clause of £25M this summer (he might still sign an extension - but there are other issues that went on behind the scenes with him). Jan Vertonghen - last year of his contract - and dropped from the team - very much unexpectedly, and Spurs have not offered him an extension. Vertonghen has probably been the most consistent defender in the Poch era - so something strange is going on there. So, there seems to be a lot of drama going on with the players (Trippier hinted as much after he left for Atletico.)
From a financial standpoint - Spurs have really bungled this, if they lose Eriksen, Vertonghen , and Alderweireld for nothing - and then have to go spend money for replacements.
Watching Poch press conferences is painful these days - he is very grouchy and has been snapping at reporters for asking rather mundane questions.
As for Levy and the Club - Spurs have 15 points in the last 15 league matches. That is relegation territory. Spurs have obviously invested heavily in the stadium, but also the practice facility, and sponsorships. I believe they also have the most expensive average ticket prices in England. Levy will not hesitate to pull the plug if Poch really has lost the team - and the bad form continues. A bad loss to Arsenal this weekend would probably be enough impetus to make the change over the international break.
Poch has built up some goodwill - but the fan base is fickle - there is a thread about Poch leaving that was started on Sunday - nearly 80 pages by this morning - and most seem fine with him leaving if he really does not want to be there (and most think he does not want to be there).
:sigh:
El Floppo
Footballguy
tbh- you posted a conspiracy theory, without a theory.
I don't know enough about match-fixing to tell you much.... always seemed really tough to even comprehend how somebody could get 22 guys, plus subs, plus refs, to be complicit. or at least enough of them to sway a game in any useful way.
GK could let goals in intentionally. Defenders could lose their man or knock in an own goal. Forwards could miss sitters.... but that doesn't stop or explain everybody else going about their jobs somehow stopping- unless they're all in on it. soccer's a complete team, fluid sport relative to basketball, baseball or football- much harder for one or two guys to be counted on to throw a game the way those other sports can.
watching a game live would be fun- I could talk you through the flow, tactics, spacing, macro/micro happenings (evident on tv)... but none of what I know or could talk about would explain match-fixing I dont' think.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
There's no doubt match-fixing happens in professional soccer, including at the highest levels. There's a ton written on it that is easily found. Generally, I think the authorities who track this find the evidence for match-fixing in abnormal betting patterns, rather than by watching what happens on the field. Goalkeepers make howlers, refs make bad calls and superior teams don't always keep their foot on the gas after the game is in hand. What makes those events in interesting is when they correspond with an anomalous betting spike.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
thanks for seeing the side i'm presenting ... my issue is the "foot off the gas" you cited, which doesn't take complicity from Uni Dub nor the refs.
more gist gor the mill:
Dundalk: 65 leeg pts - 55 for, 13 conceded for +42.
Uni Dub: 29 leeg pts - 18 for, 62 conceded for -44.
Dundalk rips a 3-nil lead before their socks are dirty (roughly 35' in) ... spread is 3.5
then nada for the next 60'
to say that doesn't merit eyebrow raising is ludicrous.
simple enough.
El Floppo
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
np with that ... won't be the last bet i ever lose, but it will be the last bet i ever lose wagering on IPL
btw, i could swallow it better if Uni Dub were a scrappy, tough defensive side that just can't score goals (like Everton in EPL) - but they're a ####### sieve attached to a turnstile abutted by a ####### revolving door.
LET'S GO LIVERPOOL!
