Here's what I really ended up going with:
QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27
QB - Shaun Hill - 11
QB - Mark Sanchez - 9
$47 is a little more than I expected to pay, but unlike most of the board, I felt 3 QB was just about a mandatory play. Only 3 of the top 25 last year had 2 QBs (and yes I realize Warner was a factor and also that the first place entry had only 2 and somehow escaped the Romo injury week). It's just too tough a position to file a zero under and somehow escape the Turk. This was originally Rodgers/Hill/Leftwich and Garrard definitely received consideration but ultimately this seemed best. My problem with Leftwich is that I totally can see Tampa starting 2-8 and switching to Freeman at some point at the exact time that I would want to have more resources available, not less. Sanchez will have the job all the way through IMO.
RB - Brandon Jacobs - 32
RB - Ray Rice - 21
RB - Larry Johnson - 20
RB - Chris Wells - 15
RB - James Davis - 2
RB - Edgerrin James - 1
$91. In previous years I've done the big stud (specifically LT2) and while his price actually was rather tempting I feel better about this mix. Jacobs isn't the best PPR guy, it is true, but when he's playing he tends to have monster games. On the flip Rice is more the PPR guy but also I think that he's just scratching the surface of what he can do. Even in a crowded backfield in Baltimore there will be plenty of touches coming his way. I did consider Parker here given that his touches are supposed to increase and that he'll be back at the goalline. Grandmama at $20 strikes me as distinct value, even with the wretched state of affairs in Kansas City. A lot of the offense is going to go through him. Part of why I didn't take Parker was that he shares his bye with LJ. I suppose I could've gone Grant/Parker here and even saved $1 in the bargain but with Rodgers in tow, I figured it'd be better to spread it out a little. Beanie at $15 seems like it could prove the most prescient move of all. I think his injury history is a little scary but the upside is too much too pass up at that rate. James Davis at $2 is a guy that's on a ton of teams, for sure, and could be a definite steal at that price. Even if he it ends up RBBC with Lewis there, I think he'll do more than the other options at twice the price. Edge for $1 is basically mandatory. With the expanded roster, 6 RBs seemed about right.
WR - Marques Colston - 28
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Josh Morgan - 15
WR - Derrick Mason - 9
WR - Bobby Engram - 3
WR - Kenny Britt - 2
WR - Laurent Robinson - 2
$86. I could swear I had more here, but this is also where the Sanchez upgrade directly came from. I originally had 8 guys here with Nate Burleson being the specific cut to make room for Sanchez. (I rearranged my Ks and or Ds to get back to 24, I don't recall how. This is an area that I probably discounted a bit too much in the prior years (in past contests I went with one guy at the Colston-type level and would have like an $8 there instead, sending the $20 over to the RBs to pay for LT2). I like the one-two punch Colston and Ocho give at the price. Josh Morgan isn't fabulous, but with Crabtree nowhere in sight the guy is a #1 receiver on a team that will fall behind enough times that he'll seem a good deal of action and production. Mason at $9 was one of those guys that was a must-have for me. Once I put him into my roster early on in the going I never took him out when messing around with scenarios. He's a #1 guy on his team who gets a ton of looks his way. A great overlay at $9. Engram was the last guy on the team as I took out Nicks and put him in when I needed a $1 to reconfigure my TEs. Nicks has potential, but the Giants receiving situation is pretty messy. KC's isn't much better to be sure but Engram is the kind of boring receiver who will put up boring numbers that might save my butt for a week or two. Not bad at $3. Britt is a rookie I like better than Nicks and at the lower price of $2 I had to get him as he'll get a lot of first team time. Laurent Robinson is another starter at $2 which is all you can ask for at that price and of course a ton of entries have him.
TE - Owen Daniels - 13
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
TE - Chris Baker - 1
$17. This is an area where I went counter to the conventional wisdom. A lot of people seem to be keying in on TEs for their flex guys based on the 1.5 per reception. While that's nice, for sure, I don't know if it's worth the extra cost associated with it - at least in terms of taking a pair of front line guys. I've put more $ into this position in the past and got burned. Daniels and Finley were the other last 2 guys in, replacing Shiancoe and Heap (I'm a bit surprised that this actually made my team MORE unique). I think Daniels is a lot safer bet to get solid dependable numbers each week than Shiancoe - Favre or no Favre. I thought I was set but it just bothered me the more I thought about it so I switched it up. It woulda been funny if I had Heap yet again as I've had him the last 2 years and he pretty much killed me! (Probably good news for all you Heap owners
). I'm not quite as sold on Finley as the rest of the board but I think he'll be able to produce at times. Baker for $1 was another easy play that many of you also have. Had to at least get a small piece of that NE offense. I went 3 TE, unlike in the past, as I think that'll keep me away from many bad weeks.
PK - Rob Bironas - 3
PK - Josh Brown - 1
PK - Dan Carpenter - 1
$5. Originally I was set to be a 3 K, 3 DEF guy. After looking at the top 5 entries though, it really did seem like these positions didn't matter nearly so much. 26 different kickers appeared on the top 50 rosters last year. Bironas is a bargain at $3 given his penchant for big games and long kicks on a team that likes to stall a lot. Every time I got away from him (for cutting even more from my K budget) I just had to come back. Brown and Carpenter are the best of the $1 brigade. I had the $1 and the roster spot left and decided that taking a shot on 2 $1 kicker would be wiser than 1 $1 kicker. I mulled using this extra dollar on defense instead but after some analysis found that there's just a little more variance in kicker scoring and they are little more prone to have a bigger big game than a defense will. A zero at kicker is more costly than a zero on defense. This also eliminates injury concerns which naturally don't occur at this position.
TD - Buffalo Bills - 2
TD - Seattle Seahawks - 2
$4. Not what I expected to end up with. As with kickers, though, there was a wide variety of defenses represented in the top 50 entries (22 to be exact). 23 of the top 25 entries had only 2 defenses as well last year. For quite a while I was on the Green Bay and or Dallas tack at $3 each like many folks here. Ultimately the other positions whittled this amount down and I decided these 2 defenses at $2 each were better than any $3/$1 combo I could come up with. Still a little scared here, but ultimately I think this was the right call.
So there you go
-QG