Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[jon_mx]

That doesn't score too much? You do understand that TE get 1.5 points per reception, WR 1 and RB .5? TE can represent the best value for money in this league.

A top tier TE gets 65 catches 800 yards 6-7 TD's....a tip tier WR gets 95 catches 1200 yards and 12-14 TD's. That extra half point for receptions is nice, but bigger points will still come from top QB, RB and WR. Besides, Baker and Finley were perhaps the two best values in the draft. Team them up with Greg Olsen, Visanthe Shiancoe, or Owen Daniels and you are set. Boss was also a great possibility at just $6. Now if Witten catches 100 balls and 10 TD's, he will very valuable. But other than than, I think there were great values at the lower tier of TE's. I don't think your second TE will be the flex guy too often, unless you are shallow at RB and WR.

Based on Dodds' projections, Witten is projected to score 260 points for $27.There are 7 WR projected to score that high: Moss $42, Fitz $44, AJ $43, Megatron $40, Smith $38, White $33, and Wayne $36.

Dodds has Witten scoring about 50 points more than all other tight ends but yet is only owned by 5.8% of entries. If Witten does what Dodds says, the people who have him will have a nice advantage. Considering he may be the #1 target with TO gone, it is possible he reaches those levels.

 

[Hawk Fan]

2 questions I'll repeat here:

1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?

2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

 

[Modog814]

Player Price %own-------------------------------Matt Schaub $20 12.4 - Another run first team. $20 seems high for a guy whose upside is 20 TD's

Seriously? As a team they threw for the 4th most yards last year. And were 7th in attempts.

 

[pats3in4]

Forgot all about this contest until I got the email reminder from Joe yesterday. I quickly perused the rules, noticed that we can have up to 24 players (big fan of this in a best-ball format), started targeting who I wanted, checked out the bye weeks and came up with a clear winner...that cost $350. Flustered that I couldn't load up on Brady, Turner, D.Williams, Fitz, Wayne, Witten et al, I started compromising left and right until I ended up with this middle-of-the-pack team :

QB - Kurt Warner - 25

QB - Chad Pennington - 12

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4

I always go with 3 QBs in case one gets injured and don't want somebody's bye week to end things. Leftwich was the easy insurance pick. Settled on Warner/Pennington after not being able to make Brees/Ryan work without significant downgrades at other positions. Warner is old as heck, but has major weapons and plays in a crap division, so maybe he'll pull a 2008 again. Pennington is accurate, not a turnover machine and can have a nice week here and there. Feeling kinda meh on this position. <_<

RB - Marshawn Lynch - 22

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Chris Wells - 15

RB - Julius Jones - 14

RB - Laurence Maroney - 4

RB - Justin Fargas - 2

Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games? NOW you tell me. Screw it. Hopefully my team is good enough to get to week 4. Both Lynch and Rice seemed like value. Wells is the upside pick. Jones could be value since he should get opportunities to prove himself early. Maroney and Fargas are cheap filler. Thought about going with Sam Morris, but not confident in his health. Overall, not a fan of this group

WR - Anquan Boldin - 31

WR - Anthony Gonzalez - 26

WR - DeSean Jackson - 24

WR - Chris Henry - 12

WR - Percy Harvin - 5

WR - Chansi Stuckey - 4

Not shocked at all that Henry and Harvin are the top-two WRs selected as I think most people saw the value there. Boldin could put up Fitz numbers if he stays healthy. Jackson looked great in camp and is poised for a breakout year. Gonzalez has a prime opportunity as a starter in the Colts offense. Stuckey seems to have Sanchez's attention so he seemed like the best bet of the cheap fillers. I like this group the best on my team

TE - Owen Daniels - 13

TE - Anthony Fasano - 7

TE - Chris Baker - 1

Again going with the 3-player strategy to mitigate the dreaded injury/bye-week combo. I like Daniels this year and at 1.5ppr, I think he offers outstanding value . Fasano has Pennington's eye in the redzone and could easily split weeks with Daniels as the top-scoring TE. Baker will be the starter in the high-powered Pats offense which means his upside is huge for $1. He had a two-TD game in the preseason and could be a Christian Fauria-like red zone target. Next to my WRs, I'm a fan of this group

PK - Jeff Reed - 2

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - 1

PK - Olindo Mare - 1

Went cheap, again with the 3-player strategy for the whole injury/bye-week combo killer. Reed has the best chance to put up points. Janikowski has the best chance to put up bonus-point FGs. Mare was the filler. Meh.

TD - San Francisco 49ers - 2

TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

TD - New Orleans Saints - 1

I think the Bay Area teams are a sneaky play as points come from sacks and turnovers, not points/yards allowed, tackles or other defensive metrics. I think they could score well in this system, pre-season be damned . Have the 3rd D mainly as a best-ball opportunity, hopefully increasing the chances that one of the three has a good week.

Total value: 250

Overall, I think the mediocrity at QB and RB will doom my team to an early-to-mid-round exit . I wish I remembered this contest earlier so I could have put some work into fitting Brady or Brees in as well as a stud RB. Oh well . We'll see how it goes .

 

[Bobcat10]

QB - Matt Ryan - 19

QB - Eli Manning - 16

QB - Matt Leinart - 4

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Willie Parker - 16

RB - LenDale White - 12

RB - Rashard Mendenhall - 10

RB - James Davis - 2

WR - Randy Moss - 42

WR - Roddy White - 33

WR - Chris Henry - 12

WR - Percy Harvin - 5

WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4

WR - Deon Butler - 2

WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2

WR - Josh Cribbs - 1

TE - Owen Daniels - 13

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Phil Dawson - 1

PK - Shaun Suisham - 1

TD - Baltimore Ravens - 6

TD - Cleveland Browns - 1

Total value: 250

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Since people were looking for some theory and thought processes . . .Even though I can't win the contest, I made a spreadsheet calculating ROI for all the players in the contest and tried to get the most bang for the buck.QB - David Garrard - 18QB - Jason Campbell - 15QB - Shaun Hill - 11These were three of the better ROI QB. Obviously on a cost basis Leftwich is the best option, but I don't see him sticking as the starting QB in TB for the whole season. On a PPG basis, Hill has been very good so far in his career. I'm not sure why so many folks think he will do radically worse heading forward. I can see maybe a slight decrease PPG wise, but not to the level where he is not Top 25. In hindsight, I probably should have considered getting an elite guy (Brady/Brees/Rogers) and a couple of lower end guys and rolled the dice that the stud didn't have an off week, an injury, or a bye that killed me. Still, $44 for three starters is not extreme cost wise.RB - Ryan Grant - 24RB - Marshawn Lynch - 22RB - Willie Parker - 16RB - Leon Washington - 12RB - Sammy Morris - 4RB - James Davis - 2RB - Edgerrin James - 1Oddly enough, I don't own Grant in any league this year, but he turned out to be a decent value for a projected high carry guy. The RB landscape on a dollar analysis had to be broken down into guys that will be close to featured backs and those that are part time backs, as the workhorse backs have a lower expected return. I orignally had Jacobs as my top back (as his cost is pretty low and he was pegged far too low compare to where he should rank production wise), but in tinkering I need a few extra bucks to add some other players.I suspect Lynch will be a great value in that I am hoping that there will not be a lot of team cutdowns by the time his suspension is over. From then on, he's basically a top 12-15 back at a discount. Parker is too low cost wise given the news that he is expected to be the mainstay in the PIT backfield. Based on projections, Washington is another good buy at his production per unit cost. I still hold firm that Sammy Morris is going to be the TD vulture for NE this year and will see some part time yardage and receptions. Davis and James were cheap and their production will far exceed the pocket change acquisition costs.WR - Randy Moss - 42WR - Devin Hester - 19WR - Chris Henry - 12WR - Derrick Mason - 9WR - Bobby Engram - 3WR - Davone Bess - 3WR - Laurent Robinson - 2Being frugal at other spots left the opportunity to add a couple of bonafide studs somewhere on the roster. Moss got one of them for the simple fact that I expect him to be the top receiver and he should have some MONSTER weeks. I'm not really a Hester fan, but based on projections he's actually one of the better mid range receiving options. Ditto for Henry, who if he perfroms like his prior seasons makes for a great best ball WR as he normally does great or does nothing, which basically boils down to some big weeks when he gets in the end zone. Mason is a receptions magnet and will see a lot of targets and receptions (although I don't have a lot of faith in his yardage or TD totals this year). The other guys were cheap and should do way better than their cost.TE - Jason Witten - 27TE - Jermichael Finley - 3TE - Chris Baker - 1The other big investment was Witten, and given the 1.5 PPR scoring for TE he seemed like he was worth the extra money. He could have a lot more receptions than any other TE this year (Dodds has him like +15 receptions over all other TEs). FInley and Baker will likely be on a lot of other rosters, but they are cheap, should start, and have a lot of upside.PK - Olindo Mare - 1PK - Jay Feely - 1Invested $$$ in other spots, just wanted two guys without the same bye week.TD - New Orleans Saints - 1TD - Detroit Lions - 1I actually think the Saints will end up being worth a lot more than the dollar it cost to acquire them, and the Lions will be better than last year (they couldn't be worse).We shall see if the projected production vs cost strategy yields decent results, as I am interested to see how this works out. I won the staff side of the contest last year with a similar strategy, but I did not do the full research and analysis as I did this year . . .

I agree with the ROI approach, and think it's more important to be good than unique. Every team should be unique, though there will be a lot of common players. Those common players can get you through a lot of weeks rather than get you eliminated -- there's a reason some players are on a lot of rosters. With lots of the same players, I ended up with a similar roster with a few key differences...QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27QB - Shaun Hill - 11QB - Byron Leftwich - 4I've got 3 of the top 8 QB's chosen. Almost went with Brady/Moss, but if they have an off week, that could eliminate you. Rodgers is a better value for possibly similar production, especially when combined with Hill. Leftwich in case both have a stinker week.RB - Ryan Grant - 24RB - Willie Parker - 16RB - Leon Washington - 12RB - Felix Jones - 11RB - James Davis - 2RB - Edgerrin James - 1RB - Chris Brown - 17 of the top 12 RB's chosen. Considered all 12, as they were values. Should get at least 2-3 good scores each week from this group.WR - Randy Moss - 42WR - Marques Colston - 28WR - Chris Henry - 12WR - Derrick Mason - 9WR - Percy Harvin - 5WR - Robert Meachem - 36 of the top 12 WR's chosen. Would have wanted more WR's than RB's, but found more cheap value at RB. Should get at least 3 good scores each week from these guys.TE - Greg Olsen - 15TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 10TE - Jermichael Finley - 33 of the top 5 TE's chosen. Almost went with Witten, but I think the combo of Olsen/Shiancoe may outscore Witten, and the extra $2 came in handy. One can be the flex some weeks, too.PK - Robbie Gould - 2PK - Rian Lindell - 2PK - Josh Brown - 1The 2 most-owned PK's, but Lindell is only on 2% of rosters. He was quietly one of the top PK's last year, and if their o-line play is adequate, he could be the unique player that wins the whole thing for me... TD - Minnesota Vikings - 6TD - Green Bay Packers - 3The most-owned D and the best D should be a good combo, with an easy schedule. The problem comes the 2 weeks they play each other.I'm kind of glad to see that the players I chose were chosen by so many others. It validates their value. I think the combination of players I have will likely be good enough to go pretty deep, but we'll see how far it takes me...

 

[da_budman]

Locked.

13,277 entries, including the staff entries that don't count.

Percent ownership

So, if I'm reading it correctly, there are teams with 12 QBs, RBs, WRs, Ks, and Ds?

what I found interesting was that more teams went with only 20 players than any other number. I just dont think in best ball format thats great strategy. If nothing else, downgrade 4 dollars SOMEWHENRE and take flyers on 4 1$ wr's defenses.

 

[A_PLUS]

Finished 2nd last year, so I am obviously an expert (sarcasm). I loved the additional roster spot idea. I decided that the additional number of bodies would outweigh the quality of players, and went with a pretty flat roster. My definite guys were Hasselbeck, Grant, Bradshaw, Henry, Mason, and Jenkins.

QBs, I waffled a lot, but in the end I think Rodgers offered the best value. Now that I see the %'s, I would have kept my previous iteration with McNabb over rodgers, and Wells over Washington at RB. I actually thought McNabb-Leinert was a ballsy combo. McNabb always sucks down the stretch, and I have a hard time seeing Warner finishing the season (I said the same last year).

RBs: I think there was a ton of value in the 10-25$ range. I don't think any of the 40+$ guys were worth it, when you could get 2 guys like Grant and Parker.

I also liked the idea of having a few part time backs with opportunities to throw up some big games, like washington and Bradshaw. I also liked Sprouls, Wells, and F. Jones for this role. I had Lynch on most of teams before the final. I am pretty shocked that Benson wasn't more widely held, I know he sucks, but still.

WRs: I thought Colston was the best value at the top, and Jackson has some great upside (I am also an Eagles lifer). Outside of them, I stuck with the mid priced depth theme.

TE: I actually think Witten was a good value, but only having 1 TE spot hurt him (vs a WR/TE combo). I didn't like the thought of having 27$ tied up in Witten a week where a flex RB exploded, and Finley caught 5 balls and a TD. Olsen has a very high ceiling this year, IMO.

K/D: Didn't want to spend much money.

QB - Aaron Rodgers -31%

QB - Matt Hasselbeck - 13%

QB - Byron Leftwich - 15.9%

RB - Ryan Grant - 30.8%

RB - Cedric Benson - 7.3%

RB - Willie Parker - 24.7%

RB - Leon Washington - 22.1

RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - 21%

RB - James Davis - 40.5%

RB - Edgerrin James - 34.4%

WR - Marques Colston - 20.6%

WR - DeSean Jackson - 11.9%

WR - Chris Henry - 35.3%

WR - Derrick Mason - 21.9%

WR - Michael Jenkins - 4.5%

WR - Nate Burleson - 15.7%

WR - Percy Harvin - 35.5%

TE - Greg Olsen - 22%

TE - Todd Heap - 15%

TE - Jermichael Finley -24.8%

PK - Josh Brown - 15.5%

PK - Dan Carpenter - 8.2%

TD - Green Bay Packers - 31.7%

TD - Oakland Raiders - 11.4%

 

[da_budman]

Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you on that. I know that's what it says, but I just don't believe that there was a team that took 10 QBs, and another that took 11, and another that took 12, but none that took 13. Oh, and coincidentally, the same thing was true at every other position, too.

People do crazy things. Someone took 14 kickers last year.

can you get me a list of those people? Im starting a new big money league and need owners.

 

[jon_mx]

2 questions I'll repeat here:1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

If picks were random, it would be almost impossible to have two identical picks. There would be billions and billions of possible combinations, including a bunch of pick 12 kicker dudes. But picks are based on knowledge and there is some consensus over who the good picks are, so there will be teams with very similar makeup. If you really wanted to come up with a number, you would have to set ground rules. Do they have to add up to $250 (I bet 95% of the entries do)? Are you allowing for any legal combination of players, ie, such as 12 kickers? Or just limit it to more reasonable distributions, like 2-4 QBs, 4-7 RB's, 5-8 WR's, 2-4 TE's, 2-4 Def, 2-4 Kickers. It would be a pretty straight forward calculation, but having to add up to $250 or some number pretty close, makes the calculation very complex.

 

[Gr00vus]

Picking a bunch of guys that this site constantly gushes over is probably not a strategy that will separate you from the pack. You really need the kind of luck that would let you stumble on next year's Warner, Slaton, or Antonio Bryant. The kind of guys no one saw coming.

There was plenty of talk about all of those guys on these boards last year. How do you think so many people ended up with them on their rosters?

 

[Hawk Fan]

2 questions I'll repeat here:1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

If picks were random, it would be almost impossible to have two identical picks. There would be billions and billions of possible combinations, including a bunch of pick 12 kicker dudes. But picks are based on knowledge and there is some consensus over who the good picks are, so there will be teams with very similar makeup. If you really wanted to come up with a number, you would have to set ground rules. Do they have to add up to $250 (I bet 95% of the entries do)? Are you allowing for any legal combination of players, ie, such as 12 kickers? Or just limit it to more reasonable distributions, like 2-4 QBs, 4-7 RB's, 5-8 WR's, 2-4 TE's, 2-4 Def, 2-4 Kickers. It would be a pretty straight forward calculation, but having to add up to $250 or some number pretty close, makes the calculation very complex.

I think you would have to run a ton of computer simulations. And you would have to do it 5 times for rosters of 20 through 24. For example, if you randomly picked 24 of the players, do they:1. Add up to $250 or less?2. Meet the minimum positional requirements?You would figure out some percentage after awhile and could multiply that times the total number of random possibilities.

 

[Dragon1952]

I obviously took a few gambles and assumptions. Rice and Benson could highly exceed their value. Washington and Felix Jones can score anytime they touch the ball. Counting on Warner and Portis getting dinged, and Matt Jones signing. I love my TE's.

QB - Jay Cutler - 22

QB - Matt Schaub - 20

QB - Matt Leinart - 4

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Cedric Benson - 19

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - Felix Jones - 11

RB - Ladell Betts - 2

WR - Randy Moss - 42

WR - Vincent Jackson - 21

WR - Kevin Walter - 14

WR - Chris Henry - 12

WR - Derrick Mason - 9

WR - Matt Jones - 5

TE - Dallas Clark - 18

TE - Jeremy Shockey - 9

PK - Shayne Graham - 2

PK - Josh Brown - 1

PK - Jason Hanson - 1

TD - Dallas Cowboys - 3

TD - Seattle Seahawks - 2

 

[Hawk Fan]

2 questions I'll repeat here:1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

If picks were random, it would be almost impossible to have two identical picks. There would be billions and billions of possible combinations, including a bunch of pick 12 kicker dudes. But picks are based on knowledge and there is some consensus over who the good picks are, so there will be teams with very similar makeup. If you really wanted to come up with a number, you would have to set ground rules. Do they have to add up to $250 (I bet 95% of the entries do)? Are you allowing for any legal combination of players, ie, such as 12 kickers? Or just limit it to more reasonable distributions, like 2-4 QBs, 4-7 RB's, 5-8 WR's, 2-4 TE's, 2-4 Def, 2-4 Kickers. It would be a pretty straight forward calculation, but having to add up to $250 or some number pretty close, makes the calculation very complex.

For the first part, the picks are definitely not random. If they were, there would be next to no chance of identical entries. Even with the high percentage picks here, I highly doubt that there are any two rosters that are exactly the same.

 

[Sinn Fein]

2 questions I'll repeat here:1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

Seems like there was a tool last year that let you plug in a set of players to determine how many other teams had the same set of players.

 

[BigTex]

Nooooooooooooo!!!!!

 

[jon_mx]

2 questions I'll repeat here:1. Are any 2 entries exactly the same?2. Any estimates on the number of legal entries possible? I would imagine you would need to calculate the total number of possible combinations (ginormous) and then figure out what percentage would be legal (computer simulation I would think), and add up all the possibilities for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 players.

Just assuming any pick is equally likely, let's just looks at QB's. There were about 40 QB's, I don't see the list anymore, but this is just approximate. If you pick 2 QB's out of 40, there are 780 unique combinations. If you pick 3 QB's there are 9880 unique combinations. If you pick 4 QB's there are 91,390 combinations. In the truly random world of statistics, two people having the same set of QB's in about 100,000 to 1. If you extrapolate that over each position (not accurate, but RB and WR would actually produce a bunch more combinations), that would be 100,000 to the 6th power, or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Of course, 99.999% of those will not add up to $250 exactly.

 

[Sinn Fein]

RB - Pierre Thomas - 32WR - Marques Colston - 28WR - Lance Moore - 20WR - Robert Meachem - 3TE - Jeremy Shockey - 9grabbed the majority of the Saints roster. Worst case scenario is I get the 3rd best non QB NO player each week (Don't have Henderson or Bush). Most weeks I will get 2 out of the top 3 and thats usually good for 80+ yards and a TD more often than not.

Meet your week 5 starting WRsWR - Chris Henry - 12WR - Pierre Garcon - 3WR - Javon Walker - 2Low cost receivers who could put up 1-2 big weeks each. Mostly riding the NO train at WR.That will be a challenge.

 

[Angry Beavers]

1,277 teams getting axed in week 1..

i remember a couple of years ago this contest did not have 12000 entries

 

[willoconley]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Shaun Hill - 11

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Willie Parker - 16

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - James Davis - 2

WR - Randy Moss - 42

WR - Marques Colston - 28

WR - Ted Ginn - 16

WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

WR - Robert Meachem - 3

WR - Davone Bess - 3

WR - David Clowney - 2

WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

TE - Chris Cooley - 15

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

PK - Nate Kaeding - 4

PK - Jason Elam - 3

TD - Seattle Seahawks - 2

TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

 

[QuizGuy66]

I did some ROI metrics myself but didn't use them (completely) in my entry. Starting to feel like I should have done so as this team (which using the same roster distribution as the team I submitted) looks pretty good - the only potential soft spot would be QB.

I'm posting this hypothetical to track how it would have done had I had the guts to run with it:

Garrard 18

Hill 11

Leftwich 4

Grant 24

Rice 21

LJ 20

L Washington 12

J Davis 2

Edge 1

Colston 28

Ocho 27

Mason 9

Harvin 5

Burleson 5

Nicks 4

L Robinson 2

Olsen 15

Daniels 13

Carlson 11

Kaeding 4

Bironas 3

Elam 3

GB 3

Dal 3

$248 and no bye conflicts.

While my team 11 guys the same as this entry, my gut tells me I shoulda rolled with this instead.

Will be fun to find out who's right: left-brain me or right-brain me.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27QB - Shaun Hill - 11QB - Byron Leftwich - 4RB - Ryan Grant - 24RB - Ray Rice - 21RB - Willie Parker - 16RB - Leon Washington - 12RB - James Davis - 2WR - Randy Moss - 42WR - Marques Colston - 28WR - Ted Ginn - 16WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4WR - Chaz Schilens - 3WR - Robert Meachem - 3WR - Davone Bess - 3WR - David Clowney - 2WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2WR - Laurent Robinson - 2TE - Chris Cooley - 15TE - Jermichael Finley - 3PK - Nate Kaeding - 4PK - Jason Elam - 3TD - Seattle Seahawks - 2TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

Nice Avatar, Will -QG

 

[jon_mx]

The All FBG Team! ....I picked the top-owned player from each position

, and a logical distribution of players at each position and it worked out to $250 exactly. Only ended up with 22 players though. I love the QB's and TE's a lot. I really like Grant and Rice at RB, Parker scares me a bit, but a solid 3 RB. A good mix of WR's too. I think it is a great team....I would like to see how the consensus works out. I would take this team over my entry actually.

Aaron Rodgers 27

Byron Leftwich 4

Matt Ryan 19

James Davis 2

Edgerrin James 1

Ryan Grant 24

Ray Rice 21

Willie Parker 16

Percy Harvin 5

Chris Henry 12

Chaz Schilens 3

Derrick Mason 9

Marques Colston 28

Greg Jennings 32

Vincent Jackson 21

Jermichael Finley 3

Greg Olsen 15

Chris Baker 1

Robbie Gould 2

Josh Brown 1

Green Bay Packers 3

New Orleans Saints 1

Total 250

 

[ctriopelle]

Here's and interesting question, and the answer is likely impossible to find unless the turk digs it out for us..

What valid entry or entries from last year would have beat the winner had they not been eliminated from the finals? This may actually tell the story of the importance of being a "survivor" as opposed to a "winner". I hear lots of talk about needing to be "different" and not wanting to have highly chosen players, but in the end, I believe you need to do some things to get to the end game. To me, that means picking up the guys you know will be cheap and on a lot of rosters, and you need them if for no other reason than to mitigate the risk they pose to you for not having them, Maybe some of these losing entries completely ignored bye weeks, or maybe it was just a bad week for injuries or even production. I am assuming that the overall winner was not the best of the original 12,000 or so entries over the critical final weeks, and this may not be the case. If there were a lot of better overall selected combinations though, I would be curious to see how they looked, and how close they came to making it to the finals. If the actual winner survived based on being more mainstream, it may highlight the importance of moving with the pack throughout the season...

 

[perry147]

My team

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - David Garrard - 18

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 37

RB - Felix Jones - 11

RB - Fred Taylor - 11

RB - James Davis - 2

RB - Edgerrin James - 1

WR - Reggie Wayne - 36

WR - Greg Jennings - 32

WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27

WR - Vincent Jackson - 21

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

TE - Brent Celek - 7

TE - Todd Heap - 5

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Phil Dawson - 1

PK - Jason Hanson - 1

TD - San Diego Chargers - 5

TD - Cleveland Browns - 1

 

[bbuster]

I love this contest...thanks FBG! Got started kind of late on this, so didn't take as much time and as many changes as usual this year. Overall, I'm happy with my team, although as usual, I wish I had time to make a couple of changes. Not feeling too excited about my RB's, but I do like the value with Grant and Parker. I'm happy with QB, WR's, and TE's. I think Rodgers was the best value at QB. I think there was a lot of good value at WR...especially guys like Henry and Mason. I know a lot of people feel that Housh is overrated and I may end up being wrong, but I actually think he's going to be stud. I really like my 2 TE's. I was tempted to go with the sure thing and pick Witten, but I expect these two guys to have big years and I got 2 guys for less than what Witten would have cost. I'm wishing now that I would have stuck with my original plan at DST and went with Minnesota and GB, but oh well. Good Luck and have fun!

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Matt Hasselbeck - 17

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Larry Johnson - 20

RB - Willie Parker - 16

RB - Kevin Faulk - 8

RB - James Davis - 2

RB - Chris Brown - 1

WR - Greg Jennings - 32

WR - T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 30

WR - Chris Henry - 12

WR - Derrick Mason - 9

WR - Nate Burleson - 5

WR - Percy Harvin - 5

WR - Greg Camarillo - 4

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

TE - John Carlson - 11

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 10

PK - Robbie Gould - 2

PK - Jay Feely - 1

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 6

TD - Philadelphia Eagles - 5

 

[perry147]

Locked.

13,277 entries, including the staff entries that don't count.

Percent ownership

So, if I'm reading it correctly, there are teams with 12 QBs, RBs, WRs, Ks, and Ds?

what I found interesting was that more teams went with only 20 players than any other number. I just dont think in best ball format thats great strategy. If nothing else, downgrade 4 dollars SOMEWHENRE and take flyers on 4 1$ wr's defenses.

I disagree - in this format I think you have to aim for the fences.

 

[Stingdiddy]

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Matt Ryan - 19

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4

RB - Brandon Jacobs - 32

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Darren Sproles - 13

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - LeSean McCoy - 7

RB - Edgerrin James - 1

WR - Randy Moss - 42

WR - Greg Jennings - 32

WR - Chris Henry - 12

WR - Earl Bennett - 11

WR - David Clowney - 2

WR - Josh Cribbs - 1

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

TE - Alge Crumpler - 2

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - 1

PK - Dan Carpenter - 1

PK - Steve Hauschka - 1

TD - Green Bay Packers - 3

TD - Oakland Raiders - 1

TD - Denver Broncos - 1

 

[Marvelous]

I did some ROI metrics myself but didn't use them (completely) in my entry. Starting to feel like I should have done so as this team (which using the same roster distribution as the team I submitted) looks pretty good - the only potential soft spot would be QB.I'm posting this hypothetical to track how it would have done had I had the guts to run with it:Garrard 18Hill 11Leftwich 4Grant 24Rice 21LJ 20L Washington 12J Davis 2Edge 1Colston 28Ocho 27Mason 9Harvin 5Burleson 5Nicks 4L Robinson 2Olsen 15Daniels 13Carlson 11Kaeding 4Bironas 3Elam 3GB 3Dal 3$248 and no bye conflicts.While my team 11 guys the same as this entry, my gut tells me I shoulda rolled with this instead.Will be fun to find out who's right: left-brain me or right-brain me.-QG

I went almost solely on ROI and I have 10 of these players: Garrard, Leftwich, Grant, Washington, Davis, Edge, Ocho, Harvin, Burleson, Olsen. Hill, Mason just missed the cut. GB was left off due to cost cutting.

 

[apalmer]

If it wasn't such bad karma to hope for an injury, I'd seriously be wanting Rodgers to go down for a few weeks. Nothing serious--just a hammy or something to weed out a ton of teams.

 

[meeka]

If it wasn't such bad karma to hope for an injury, I'd seriously be wanting Rodgers to go down for a few weeks. Nothing serious--just a hammy or something to weed out a ton of teams.

Me too, the rest of my team should carry me. Weed out some of the "other" Rodgers owners.

 

[qazqaz11]

I knew when I submitted my roster that it would be fairly generic but this is ridiculous. Of my 24 players 21 are on at least 9.4% of the entries. If I should miraculously make it to the final 250 I think you may need DNA testing to find the differences.

QB - Tony Romo - DAL/6 - $23 - (4.6%) - QB18

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/4 - $19 - (15.6%) - QB3

Definately my weakest position with only 2 options. Pleasently surprised that Romo was so unpopular. Early bye weeks help but I need them both to stay healthy.

RB - Willie Parker - PIT/8 - $16 - (24.7%) - RB5

RB - Chris Wells - ARI/4 - $15 - (10.9%) - RB15

RB - Leon Washington - NYJ/9 - $12 - (22.1%) - RB6

RB - Felix Jones - DAL/6 - $11 - (19.7%) - RB9

RB - Ladell Betts - WAS/8 - $2 - (18.8%) - RB11

RB - Glen Coffee - SF/6 - $2 - (20.6%) - RB8

RB - James Davis - CLE/9 - $2 - (40.5%) - RB1

Having 6/11 of the most popular RB's certainly won't separate me from the pack but they should hopefully provide 2 decent scores each week with the occasional flex option. Not great but serviceable considering there are no studs.

WR - Marques Colston - NO/5 - $28 - (20.6%) - WR5

WR - Anthony Gonzalez - IND/6 - $26 - (9.4%) - WR18

WR - Donald Driver - GB/5 - $21 - (5.4%) - WR40

WR - Chris Henry - CIN/8 - $12 - (35.3%) - WR2

WR - Derrick Mason - BAL/7 - $9 - (21.9%) - WR4

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $5 - (35.5%) - WR1

WR - Chaz Schilens - OAK/9 - $3 - (23.7%) - WR3

Well I managed to pick the 5 most popular WR's. Isn't that just precious. Gonzalez and Driver will have to be difference makers but having Colston and Driver ( as well as TE Olsen) on bye in wk 5 will make advancing past that point very problematic. It may be early enough in the contest to survive, who knows.

TE - Greg Olsen - CHI/5 - $15 - (22.0%) - TE2

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN/9 - $10 - (11.7%) - TE5

TE - Chris Baker - NE/8 - $1 - (17.1%) - TE3

These 3 should provide good production and a possible flex option.

PK - Nate Kaeding - SD/5 - $4 - (9.7%) - PK11

PK - Rob Bironas - TEN/7 - $3 - (13.9%) - PK3

PK - Shayne Graham - CIN/8 - $2 - (5.3%) - PK22

Hey, they're kickers, I just wanted 2 available each week.

TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/9 - $6 - (10.4%) - TD6

TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/5 - $3 - (31.7%) - TD1

Minnesota should do well except possibly for the 4 weeks when they will be missing the "Williams Wall". Green Bay is a good backup.

Weeks 5 and 6 are going to be a problem. Even if I get through them I doubt that this lineup will advance much past week 10 but I'll enjoy watching anyway.

 

[The Jerminator]

Like most everyone on FBG I LOVE this contest, it is worth the price of admission by itself. In years past I have spent COUNTLESS hours retooling my roster, only to get bounced in week 3 or 4. This year I waited until last week and quickly put together a roster based on a combination of the "By Commitee" articles on FBG. Thus:

QB - Matt Schaub - 20

QB - David Garrard - 18

Basically the QBBC guys, good value and complimentary schedules. I actually really like Schaub this year and Garrard should be solid. These guys will be very consistent.

RB - Michael Turner - 41

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - Fred Taylor - 11

RB - James Davis - 2

RB - Edgerrin James - 1

RB - Chris Brown - 1

I expect Turner to be $ again this year, Rice/Wash is the RB2BC, Fred looks live a high upside guy, the rest are fliers obviously.

WR - Marques Colston - 28

WR - Donnie Avery - 21

WR - Devin Hester - 19

WR - Josh Morgan - 15

WR - Chris Chambers - 10

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

I had originally gone with the WR3BC guys but found better value by making some tweaks. I looked for #1 options on teams that should throw a lot. Three guys on a bye Week 5 but lots of people have this problem. No other Week 5 byes gives me lots of chances to make up for it.

TE - Bo Scaife - 10

TE - Heath Miller - 9

TEBC. Flex possibilities and balance here. Again, not a lot of thought put into this just going with the chalk.

PK - Josh Brown - 1

PK - Dan Carpenter - 1

Kickers, whaddayagonnado??? A cheap dome guy and a cheap warm weather guy.

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3

TD - Green Bay Packers - 3

TDBC. Probably more money than I should have spent but I wanted the balance and I didn't want to spend too much time.

I just want to make it past Week 10 this year.

Good luck to all and thanks again to Joe and David for putting this together!

 

[Beefeaters]

QB - Philip Rivers - 25

QB - Eli Manning - 16

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 37

RB - Cedric Benson - 19

RB - Willie Parker - 16

RB - Michael Bush - 6

RB - Bernard Scott - 2

RB - Edgerrin James - 1

WR - Greg Jennings - 32

WR - Marques Colston - 28

WR - Roy Williams - 21

WR - Percy Harvin - 5

WR - Patrick Crayton - 4

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

WR - Sam Hurd - 1

TE - Greg Olsen - 15

TE - Randy McMichael - 9

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - 1

PK - Ryan Succop - 1

TD - Green Bay Packers - 3

TD - Atlanta Falcons - 2

Number of Players: 23

Total value: 250

 

[jurrassic]

I just tried to enter this contest and the rules stated you had to enter by Sept. 8. Why is that? The first game doesn't start until Sept 10.

 

[comfortably numb]

I posted my team earlier, but upon looking at last years top teams, and last years point per position breakdown.

I decided the high scoring came from QB/WR

RB scored well, but I just did not like the value it presented, and also could not justify the $50 I had alotted for ADP.

I then changed to the following.

QB - Drew Brees - 35

QB - Chad Pennington - 12

QB - Matt Leinart - 4

Last year the top 10 scorers were QB, so I decided to go for a top dog, who could push elite numbers.

While myself and most had Hassleback, I bit the bullet and went with a QB I know will throw the ball alot.

Chad was there a nice safety valve, who is solid for the 1-2 weeks Brees throws up a stinker.

Leinhart, may be a waste, but if Warner goes down, he could compete with Brees for my top QB scorer.

RB - Thomas Jones - 23

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - Fred Taylor - 11

RB - Michael Bush - 6

RB - James Davis - 2

I had ADP here, but dropped back to get TJones and stock up at WR. Jones should be a min 1100/8 TD guy, and should see the goal line carries.

Rice was a reach, but a popular one. I am hoping his PPR skills show up.

Fred Taylor is out of the ordinary pick for me, but I just am starting to get a feeling he will put together a few solid games of 74 2TD's.

Bush presented good value, and if Dmac is hurt at all he could be a steel.

Davis, just on the bandwagon

WR - Randy Moss - 42

WR - Laveranues Coles - 19

WR - Kevin Walter - 14

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - 12

WR - Earl Bennett - 11

WR - Derrick Mason - 9

WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4

WR - David Clowney - 2

WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2

Ok, here is where I wanted to go all out.

I could have combined 2 of these guys, and gone with Jennings or something, but my intention was for each week to get the 4th WR be my flex.

I wanted as many bullets in the chamber as possible so I mixed in some nice PPR options along with some potential 2/89/TD type of caliber players.

Moss, I feel he will be WR1 so he was going to be on my roster regardless

Coles, I liked the value here, I think he will be a great in PPR for CIN, and provides good hands in the redzone.

Walter, Just looking for a couple of those nice 2TD games.

Muhammed, just another solid undervalued play IMO, he should get a good amount of targets

Bennett, just expecting he is Cutlers most targeted player, if so, this pick will be big

Mason, more unsexy value here, this should be Flacco's most targeted player

Nicks, I can see him emerging as NY's top WR towards the end of the year

Clowney and Bey are my guys, I merely hop to get 1 or 2 weeks of a top score from. If they can have that 1 game with 3 rec 112 yds 1 TD, they will be well worth their price tag.

All in all very unsexy list, but as I said, my strategy was to get my bullets lined up at WR and hop for the best

TE - John Carlson - 11

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

I think Carlson will put together a fine year. 80 targets as a rookie and the confidence from an older QB. Should have him looking for a spot in the top 5

Finely who knows, a chance I took, like the majority, if he isn't starting by the time Carlson BYE rolls around getting a goose

PK - Olindo Mare - 1

PK - Jay Feely - 1

Who knows, they were cheap

TD - Miami Dolphins - 3

TD - Atlanta Falcons - 2

See above

 

[PatsChowder]

This is season number 3 for me in the survivor pool here at FBGs. First season I made it to the final 500, but finished out of the prize winners. Last year I got bounced in week 6 after some injuries. Here's to hoping for a better season...

QB Tom Brady 37

QB Mark Sanchez 9

No doubt... it's all on Brady this year. I would've loved to have gone low for Leftwich as a back up, but the bye weeks didn't match and spending $5 for Sanchez seemed appropriate enough for a back up. I never go for three quarterbacks... it's all or nothing. Losing Brady for week 8 will be scary since Sanchez has the Dolphins, but I couldn't find the value in getting the 2 middle of the road quarterbacks.

RB Ryan Grant 24

RB Thomas Jones 23

RB Willie Parker 16

RB Ahmed Bradshaw 8

RB Sammy Morris 4

RB James Davis 2

I tried to save money at RB since I felt I could get a trio of capable backs and pick and choose the best weeks. Grant, Jones, and Parker were all under-priced as they could each top 1000 yards and score at least 7 TDs. I really like Bradshaw and Morris as depth players and Davis was a home run flier. I really wanted to find a way to add LenDale White, Leon Washington, or Kevin Faulk but I just couldn't find the cap space.

Roddy White 33

Greg Jennings 32

Derrick Mason 9

Nate Burleson 5

Patrick Crayton 4

Davone Bess 3

Bobby Engram 3

Kenny Britt 2

I have always had an issue at wide receiver in this league and I felt going with an extra deep squad would help. As long as White and Jennings stay healthy all year (knock on wood) I should be able to pick and choose from Mason, Burleson, and Crayton on a week-in-and-week out basis. Bess, Engram, and Britt are all great values at their price tags and could help out for bye weeks. Rookies have screwed me over in the past and while some of these players seem less than spectacular I think I'll appreciate the low end basements while I may miss out on some of the higher ceilings.

Chris Cooley 15

Owen Daniels 13

With 1.5 points-per-reception for TEs, I don't understand why people don't load up here. Instead of going after an elite guy like Witten and pairing him with a Chris Baker type, I balanced myself out nicely with 2 top 4-8 TEs for less money. Each of these guys could have 70 receptions at the end of the year and that's 105 points a piece alone.

Suisham 1

Hauschka 1

Spending more than a dollar on a kicker is ridiculous. I also considered Feely, Hanson, and Brown, but these two play for teams with potentially better offenses, but more importantly defenses that will rely on field goals to win.

Green Bay 3

Arizona 3

I went with the suggested defense by committee, but it wasn't the only reason. First, I eliminated all defense of $4 or more. There was no way I was spending that much on a defense. Then. when you look at the projected numbers on FBGs, these two teams (along with Dallas) were the three best scoring defenses in this scoring system. Other teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota may outrank them because they don't allow points and yardage, but that doesn't play a part in this system.

 

[Gr00vus]

I went in knowing there were 5 things I had to have: Gates, Washington, Felix Jones, Hasselbeck and the Charger D. Things fell out from there.

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - 19 2.8%

QB - Matt Hasselbeck - 17 13%

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4 15.9%

The top two have an easy SOS, so I figure one or the other will keep me competitive each week at the position. I really like both to significantly outperform their common expectations this year. Lefty I took as cheap early season injury insurance. The byes don't line up ideally as both Lefty and Ben are off week 7 - hopefully Hass is still breathing at that point. Lefty could be useless, but he'll let me sleep at night through the early cuts. Roethlisberger could be a good differential point for me.

RB - Brandon Jacobs - 32 11.6%

RB - Kevin Smith - 30 7.8%

RB - Leon Washington - 12 22.1%

RB - Felix Jones - 11 19.7%

RB - Sammy Morris - 4 3.1%

RB - Ladell Betts - 2 18.8%

I'm happy with these guys, but it turns out my must haves here were everybody's must haves making them less useful. I like the bottom two because they'll have roles which will give them production right off the bat and injury to other guys could make them quite valuable as well. I guess Sammy Morris could be a good differential point for me, but I'm not counting on it. I think Jacobs and Smith at the top give me enough variation to stand out positively if they perform as I think they should. My flex will probably come from this group most weeks.

WR - Santonio Holmes - 25 3.4%

WR - Vincent Jackson - 21 16.3%

WR - Devin Hester - 19 8.1%

WR - Nate Burleson - 5 15.7%

WR - Percy Harvin - 5 35.5%

WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4 15.2%

WR - Kenny Britt - 2 5.8%

WR - David Clowney - 2 4.6%

WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - 2 9.2%

I just went for the best values and most quantity I could here. I probably took too many rookies, and I'm also very likely light on receptions, but I still think these guys presented some of the best values. Lots of boom or bust here. Britt and Clowney might not see the field enough, but the other guys should play enough to contribute. Obviously I like Holmes better than a lot of people (along with Big Ben) so the Steeler passing game becomes an important differentiation point for me. Harvin is essentially useless, and Jackson, Burleson and Nicks aren't far behind. Here's hoping Clowney has a monster season.

TE - Antonio Gates - 24 1.5%

TE - Chris Baker - 1 17.1%

My biggest assertion is that Gates will be the best TE in the league this year and will put up WR1 type numbers (except maybe yardage). Obviously if I get this right it gives me a huge leg up on most. Chris Baker is a cheap bye week filler just to hopefully not take a zero. Week 5 is the heaviest bye week for this roster and I don't want to go too low that week. I don't need him contributing any other weeks (unless things go horribly wrong).

PK - Robbie Gould - 2 22.2%

PK - Steve Hauschka - 1 7.5%

As I have a feeling many others did, I just took the best $2 and $1 kickers off Herman's rankings.

TD - San Diego Chargers - 5 8.8%

TD - Cincinnati Bengals - 1 9.8%

I'm loving both these D's - the Chargers I think will be a monster in this scoring, and the Bengals are going to be a big bargain at $1 that should at least get me through the Chargers's week 5 bye.

 

[OU#1]

Last year was my first year subscribing to FBG and I thorougly enjoyed the contest. I actually made the playoffs but all my guys went cold at the end. Top 200 or so...not bad at all. I fully expect to be cut in week 3 this year.

Last year 99.9% of the people that made the playoffs had similiar "common" players. Warner, Slaton, Breaston, and Keller to name a few. Basically all you need to do is follow the Shark Pool Pre-Season hype threads and you already know who these picks are going to be. Especially if they can be had on the cheap. My idea this year was to ensure I had the "common" picks to get to the playoffs but have a few unique players to actually do something in the playoffs (My uniqueness last year was very limited to one or two guys who killed me in the playoffs: Peterson & Rodgers). Keep in mind when these "common" picks actually do something they force money to be wasted in the same position brackets unless there is a standout stud. As an example if Jermichael Finley actually amounts to something this season he'll make some other more expensive TEs a waste of money. So unless you got somebody that's putting up substantially better numbers at TE (Tier one aka Witten, Gonzo, etc.) then Jermichael Finley ruins most TE picks. Personally I'm not buying the Jermichael Finley hype so I went with him plus two tier two TEs, but I'm also not going to miss the bus on him for a $3 price tag.

I'm also a firm believer in using as many roster spots as possible in this format. I don't understand why you would want to roll with 20 instead of 24. Increase your odds by taking fliers on a few 1$/$2 players. The one week that they contribute could be the difference between making the cut or not...or more importantly making the money in the playoffs.

Lastly I think you have to take risks to win this thing and one way of doing that is reducing the number of "single position slots" for increased "multiple position slots". For example teams with 3+ QB's, 3+ K's, 3+ DST's are wasting valuable roster spots that should be filled by RB/WR/TE positions. 70% of your points comes from RB/WR/TE (7 out of 10 roster spots). Devoting eight or more roster spots to the QB/K/DST positions is foolish IMHO. I personally only did 6/24 slots on QB/K/DST (25% of my team). I was VERY close to rolling with only 1 K AND 1 DST, but I decided against it at the last minute since an injury at the K slot could eliminate me AND/OR taking a zero on the bye weeks. An example of my train of thought on the following roster distribution:

QB is 1/10 Roster Slots (10%) I used 2/24 slots here (8.3%)

RB is 2-3/10 Roster Slots (20%-30%) I used 7/24 here (29.2%)

WR is 3-4/10 Roster Slots (30%-40%) I used 8/24 here (33.3%)

TE is 1-2/10 Roster Slots (10%-20%) I used 3/24 here (12.5%)

K is 1/10 Roster Slots (10%) I used 2/24 slsthere (8.3%)

DST is 1/10 Roster Slots (10%) I used 2/24 slots here (8.3%)

So as you can see I'm taking slight risks on my single position slots to pad my multiple position slots. Just enough on the single position slots to cover my bye weeks, but I'm also an injury away from disaster.

Is my train of thought correct? Probably not....but hey at least I tried to come up with a system and stuck to it. Honestly though we are talking about Fantasy Football here so it's all a crap shoot.

Entry number 100066.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27 31.0% Owned

QB - Matt Hasselbeck - 17 13.0%

Not very unique here since Hass won't likely outscore Rodgers, but at least my QB position looks solid barring injury.

RB - Ryan Grant - 24 30.85%

RB - Willie Parker - 16 24.7%

RB - Leon Washington - 12 22.1%

RB - Felix Jones - 11 19.7%

RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - 8 21.0%

RB - Michael Bush - 6 8.4%

RB - Glen Coffee - 2 20.6%

Not very unique here either unless Michael Bush goes banannas.

WR - Calvin Johnson - 40 4.6%

WR - Chris Henry - 12 35.3%

WR - Chris Chambers - 10 4.6%

WR - Derrick Mason - 9 21.9%

WR - Justin Gage - 8 7.6%

WR - Percy Harvin - 5 35.5%

WR - Hakeem Nicks - 4 15.2%]

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2 13.5%

Nice to see two out of my top three recievers less than 5% owned but if they are out produced by some of the "common" picks it's wasted.

TE - Dustin Keller - 12 3.5%

TE - John Carlson - 11 9.7%

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3 24.8%

If Finley is a bust then these TEs could pay off huge or if Finley has some sub-par weeks.

PK - Rob Bironas - 3 13.9%

PK - Robbie Gould - 2 22.2%

Nothing unique here. Two of the top 3 picked kickers...but hey we're talking Kickers here.

TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 2.1%

TD - Green Bay Packers - 3 31.7%

The most picked DST and the 2nd to last picked DST. Unless Jax outscores GB then there's nothing to see here either.

Overall I think my strategy was sound but my team isn't quite unique enough to go the distance. My top WRs and TEs are somewhat unique but if the commonly picked players outproduce them it's all moot.

 

[rmfesh33]

Here's and interesting question, and the answer is likely impossible to find unless the turk digs it out for us..What valid entry or entries from last year would have beat the winner had they not been eliminated from the finals? This may actually tell the story of the importance of being a "survivor" as opposed to a "winner". I hear lots of talk about needing to be "different" and not wanting to have highly chosen players, but in the end, I believe you need to do some things to get to the end game. To me, that means picking up the guys you know will be cheap and on a lot of rosters, and you need them if for no other reason than to mitigate the risk they pose to you for not having them, Maybe some of these losing entries completely ignored bye weeks, or maybe it was just a bad week for injuries or even production. I am assuming that the overall winner was not the best of the original 12,000 or so entries over the critical final weeks, and this may not be the case. If there were a lot of better overall selected combinations though, I would be curious to see how they looked, and how close they came to making it to the finals. If the actual winner survived based on being more mainstream, it may highlight the importance of moving with the pack throughout the season...

I agree....I know I was highly favored to make the last cut last year and had a poor week and missed by only a few pts..but when I totaled my pts for the 3 week final I would have been 2nd overall of the final 250. As you point out there may have been more than me like that. That's why in addition to bye concerns I also try to look at the schedules between weeks 10-13 when making a final decisions between 2 players. For example...I looked at Forte, who was the most consistent RB last year week to week (i.e. no huge, huge weeks, but no poor ones either...and the only RB to have all double digit point weeks 1-13 last year), which I think is a good key to your top RB/WR...while I liked his @ATL, @CIN, CLE, ARI, in weeks 6-9 and a wk5 bye.....his @SF, PHI, MIN weeks 10-12 when you need him most are scary to look at compared to other options.If you construct your team right (barring major player injuries):the first 6 weeks s/b pretty easy to get through (be in top 40-45% of teams)....weeks 7-9 slightly harder with lower cuts and more bye weeks in 7&8, but not impossible (roughly top 20% overall). It really comes down to what you can do in weeks 10-13 to make it to the finals and that is a key thing to look at. Projections get you in the ballpark; but a players yearly statistics do not split up to (total / 16)...there are peaks and valleys and you need to hvae the peaks in 10-13 to "get into the tourney" so to speak. That is why it is interesting to see all the talk of 20-24 players. Do you want 2 cheaper WR's each with say a 25% check to score 20+ or 1 more expensive WR with a 50% chance to get 20+? We'll see which was luckier this year in due time.

 

[Comer]

Is the Fantasy Star going to be up and running this year?

 

[baconisgood]

RB - Pierre Thomas - 32WR - Marques Colston - 28WR - Lance Moore - 20WR - Robert Meachem - 3TE - Jeremy Shockey - 9grabbed the majority of the Saints roster. Worst case scenario is I get the 3rd best non QB NO player each week (Don't have Henderson or Bush). Most weeks I will get 2 out of the top 3 and thats usually good for 80+ yards and a TD more often than not.

Meet your week 5 starting WRsWR - Chris Henry - 12WR - Pierre Garcon - 3WR - Javon Walker - 2Low cost receivers who could put up 1-2 big weeks each. Mostly riding the NO train at WR.That will be a challenge.

I fully expect week 5 to knock me out a high % of the time. I am fortunate to have the NY Giants play Oakland at home that week which helps since i have Bradshaw and Jacobs. Unfortunaately Cin plays Baltimore which huts a lot as Palmer and Henry are downgraded.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Locked.

13,277 entries, including the staff entries that don't count.

Percent ownership

Wow. Some people don't understand the rules of this contest.

 

[apalmer]

Is the Fantasy Star going to be up and running this year?

Earlier in the thread, OC said he'd have it up and running for Week 1, but the cut prediction may not be working until week 2.

 

[apalmer]

I'm also a firm believer in using as many roster spots as possible in this format. I don't understand why you would want to roll with 20 instead of 24. Increase your odds by taking fliers on a few 1$/$2 players. The one week that they contribute could be the difference between making the cut or not...or more importantly making the money in the playoffs.Lastly I think you have to take risks to win this thing and one way of doing that is reducing the number of "single position slots" for increased "multiple position slots". For example teams with 3+ QB's, 3+ K's, 3+ DST's are wasting valuable roster spots that should be filled by RB/WR/TE positions.

Not sure how you reconcile these two beliefs. If 24 is automatically better than 20, isn't 3 QB's better than 2? The one week the extra $4 QB contributes could be the difference between making the cut or not...or more importantly making the money in the playoffs. On the other hand, if you have to take risks, isn't going with 20 guys and risking an injury without an extra backup exactly the kind of risk it takes to win?

 

[Sinn Fein]

I'm also a firm believer in using as many roster spots as possible in this format. I don't understand why you would want to roll with 20 instead of 24. Increase your odds by taking fliers on a few 1$/$2 players. The one week that they contribute could be the difference between making the cut or not...or more importantly making the money in the playoffs.

Lastly I think you have to take risks to win this thing and one way of doing that is reducing the number of "single position slots" for increased "multiple position slots". For example teams with 3+ QB's, 3+ K's, 3+ DST's are wasting valuable roster spots that should be filled by RB/WR/TE positions.

Not sure how you reconcile these two beliefs. If 24 is automatically better than 20, isn't 3 QB's better than 2? The one week the extra $4 QB contributes could be the difference between making the cut or not...or more importantly making the money in the playoffs. On the other hand, if you have to take risks, isn't going with 20 guys and risking an injury without an extra backup exactly the kind of risk it takes to win?

It was an interesting dynamic.I actually split the baby on this issue - I did end up with 24 players, but took some calculated risks at QB and TE - leaving little margin for error if I guessed wrong, or get hit with an injury.

I used the extra slots on several low-priced WRs - taking the approach of a best ball tourney - I have 8 WRs, two who should produce decent numbers every week, and then 6 who just have to hit once or twice all year to be effective. The catch will be making sure they don't all hit on the same weekend.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Similar to many...

QB-Aaron Rodgers-$27

QB-Matt Ryan-$19

Felt like most weeks Rodgers should pay off but Ryan offered a lot of upside IMO.

RB-Ryan Grant-$24...1st player I felt you could get a lick of value other than DWill who was $37

RB-Ray Rice-$21

RB-F.Jones-$11

RB-A.Bradshaw-$8

RB-J.Davis-$2

RB-Edge-$1

There was a lot of value between $7-$12 but in the end I only grabbed Felix and Bradshaw but would have liked to have kept Leon and Chester at that price as well.

WR-Randy Moss-$42

WR-Greg Jennings-$32

WR-D.Hester-$19

WR-D.Mason-$9...this pick threw off value throughout the WRs

WR-H.Nicks-$4

WR-P.Crayton-$4

WR-Chaz Schillens-$3

I spent my money at WR. Moss and Jennings will cover up some holes a lot of weeks. Hester to me actually had the most upside of anyone within $5 up or down of him. FBG has slowly slid Hester up to almost top20 at this point. We know Cutler is going to be zippin it, Bears D ain't as great as it once was...Hester is a 1,000 yd candidate and I have no idea what his receptions and TD totals will be but I took a gamble on him.

Mason threw the value off for everyone IMO...guy is probably going to squeeze about 900-1100 yds out and about 70-80 balls so to me that's free money for the price. Nicks and Schillens were potential HR picks and Crayton is just a bye week filler.

TE-A.Fasano-$7

TE-Todd Heap-$5

TE-J.Finley-$3

My TEs are really just trying to fill the TE position each week but I actually think I might get a decent number of flex fill ins here too. I like the upside of all 3 of them.

PK-K.Brown-$3

PK-Hauschka-$1

PK-J.Feey-$1

Def-Miami-$3

Def-Oakland-$1

Def-NO-$1

With PK and Def I try and field 3 of them to fill up roster spots and also to optimize my chances of not having an egg in those categories. Many weeks its just a couple of points that seperates things.

Week 5 is my big bye week as I have a lot of Packers, and week7 with the number of Ravens I have will run me a little thin but otherwise I feel pretty good about this roster. Not the best but so much luck is involved.

 

[Comer]

Is the Fantasy Star going to be up and running this year?

Earlier in the thread, OC said he'd have it up and running for Week 1, but the cut prediction may not be working until week 2.

ty

 

[jdoggydogg]

Suggestion: This thread would be more enlightening if more guys provided some of their thought processes instead of just listing their teams.

I've had tons of these players in some stage or another in various iterations, so I don't really care about the specific makeup of each team. I am really interested in the reasoning behind your teams, though.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Number of entries by roster size=====================20 518121 203222 144523 129124 3328

This really surprises me. Well over half the field left two or more potential spots empty.

Same here. No way would I go with less than 24 and I'd use 30 if I could.