Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[The Iguana]

Current Cutoff: 143,80Projected Cutoff: 170,00

So, the projected is expected to move over 26 points north in just two games? Wow. Gonna need a miracle from the Saints D.

Not exactly. Im pretty sure the 170 came from DD's sim and the 143 is ctripolle's number from the actual games. ctripolle will have to check in to let us know if the 170 is expected to hold up.

The late afternoon games were huge for me. Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt and Vernon Davis are my current heroes. I need 15 to 20 from Flacco and/or a TD from Mason tonight to feel really good about being able to move on but things look better now than they have since the first game on Thursday.By the way, I could easily see the projected cutoff being 25+ points higher based on 2 games, especially given the 2 teams playing on MNF. Lots of offensive potential and points scoring possible.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Current Cutoff: 143,80

Projected Cutoff: 170,00

So, the projected is expected to move over 26 points north in just two games? Wow. Gonna need a miracle from the Saints D.

Not exactly. Im pretty sure the 170 came from DD's sim and the 143 is ctripolle's number from the actual games. ctripolle will have to check in to let us know if the 170 is expected to hold up.

The previous cut was 167, I believe the 170 is the updated cutoff.

DD's Sunday morning sim has a 50th percentile of 170.

 

[smackdaddies]

I only need 25 points each from 2 of 3 Meechum or Henderson or Heap - my big money players of DWill, KSmith, Jennings and Andre J layed a big enough egg that Rodgers, Witten, Percy/ GB D are not going to be enough

It's possible, but I am not going to be staying up to watch the game

 

[The Iguana]

I was looking at the query tool. Most of the big scorers tonight and in the MNF game aren't on a ton of teams. I would guess (wishful thinking maybe???) that the cut will come down from the 170, possibly significantly, if the current cut is 144 +/-.

 

[Das Boot]

I was looking at the query tool. Most of the big scorers tonight and in the MNF game aren't on a ton of teams. I would guess (wishful thinking maybe???) that the cut will come down from the 170, possibly significantly, if the current cut is 144 +/-.

If the remaining players aren't widely held, the cut estimate would have taken that into consideration.I'm definitely with you in hoping for a lower cut line than 170 though.

 

[Chainz]

189,80 points after the SNG game.

See you next week.

 

[bryan11joseph]

Sun Sim had me at #290 with a 62.1% survival with an avg score of 177.

I scored 164.7

Does that mean I'm dead in the water - after MNF bumps up the cut-off??

Edit to adjust final score.

 

[Organized Chaos]

170.7 with Colston (-7)

 

[ctriopelle]

Sorry everyone, busy weekend and busy night. Didn't watch much football as I was trying to fix a malfunctioning furnace. Cut line is currently about 157. I don't have time to try to do an updated projection, we'll have to wait for Turk on that in the morning. I doubt we see 170 as we earlier expected, NO Def, Meachem and Colston are the really only big impact players going. I'd expect about 162 or so as where we finish.

Gonna be another nail biter here, I'm about 10 down with only Meachem and NO Def left to go. Bad news is that it will take big scores to get me on the good side of things, which will probably move the cut a good bit too.

 

[RenegadeGM]

Looks like I'm at about 185.1 with nobody left... I think I'm moving on, making it my best showing in the contest so far, which is funny because a few weeks in I thought this was the weakest team I had assembled

 

[Pnishthm]

Was a nice run but I'm sitting at 139.50 with only Colston (-5.90) and N.O. D (-18). Scored ok all around but sub par games from Jennings, Burleson and V-Jax just wasn't enough. Best of luck to the final 500

 

[massraider]

Sorry everyone, busy weekend and busy night. Didn't watch much football as I was trying to fix a malfunctioning furnace. Cut line is currently about 157. I don't have time to try to do an updated projection, we'll have to wait for Turk on that in the morning. I doubt we see 170 as we earlier expected, NO Def, Meachem and Colston are the really only big impact players going. I'd expect about 162 or so as where we finish..

 

[drm1125]

I'm at 166.20, I may squeek by this week. I'm surprised that it will be that close because the sims had me finishing as one of the worst teams this week, it had me at 27% chance of surviving and put me at like the 989th team! I'm like the like team that won't quit!

 

[Doug Drinen]

Pre-MNF sim

 

[smackdaddies]

down to 25% chance - thanks a HEAP for last nights game.

Down to needing Meech or Henderson to come through big

 

[Bad_Mo]

Pre-MNF sim

@ my #17 ranking. Wow. Here's hoping for an injury-free MNF.I imagine with only 500 left, there will be a lot of interesting analysis regarding rosters and such.

 

[Mapmaker]

Lookin' like burnt toast here this morning ....

4% chance of advancing

It was fun while it lasted ... good luck to our advancing teams!

 

[Wide Right]

Made it through - now only one more 50% cut to go. Will be very interesting tonight for teams on the bubble, Will those that built their team around Brees and the Saints make it through or will it be the Brady/Moss/Welker teams moving on? Will be some good contest teams going home.

 

[Gamma1210]

somehow with a 66.6% chance of moving on. don't think my team has the firepower to make a run at the money

 

[redaddy25]

I managed to make it through with only 2 RB's, not sure how much longer I can go unless DWilliams can get going again.

I would imagine there won't be a lot of VJax owners left so it would be nice for him to start catching the ball again also...

 

[The_Hoser]

Was a nice run but I'm sitting at 139.50 with only Colston (-5.90) and N.O. D (-18). Scored ok all around but sub par games from Jennings, Burleson and V-Jax just wasn't enough. Best of luck to the final 500

Almost the same for me with NO D (-18) and Colston (-9.30). I'm sitting at 160.60, though, so a decent night from Colston would get me through. My wife has already resigned herself to watching me scream at the TV all night -- hell, she already has the snacks ready.I knew I married the right woman.

 

[The Iguana]

mason and flacco came thru to take me from the bubble to in for at least one more round. Other than C Johnson, it was mostly "backup players" coming thru for me this week with Fred Jackson and Kenny Britt leading the way. woo hoo!

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

We might have a FBG Staff Champion after this week.

Andy Hicks is through to the Top 250 500

Matt Waldman is sitting at 136.1 + Moss and needs bonus points from Shockey/Baker (TE -7.0 & Flex -6.6)

Unless Moss comes up with a 30-40 pt night, Hicks might be the only staffer through to the Top 250 500.

ETA: I was focused on the next cut because I'm moving on!!!

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

We might have a FBG Staff Champion after this week.Andy Hicks is through to the Top 250Matt Waldman is sitting at 136.1 + Moss and needs bonus points from Shockey/Baker (TE -7.0 & Flex -6.6)Unless Moss comes up with a 30-40 pt night, Hicks might be the only staffer through to the Top250.

The cut this week takes us from 1000 to 500. Next weeks cut is the last and takes the 500 down to 250.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Sitting with a 0% chance. I can't even say "so you say there's a chance . . .". First week under 160. Without Benson, my RBs put up a huge 11 points as the lack of Benson finally doomed me.

Good luck to the rest of you.

 

[valhallan]

Flying through thanks to Chester and Forsett... but those two plus Parker and Bradshaw are my whole RB corps. I'd have to be seriously lucky to pull this off.

 

[valhallan]

I would imagine there won't be a lot of VJax owners left so it would be nice for him to start catching the ball again also...

Haven't used VJax or Ocho at all in the last three weeks... :wildcards:

 

[Bad_Mo]

Second year doing this contest. I can't remember where I finished last year...not that good IIRC. Probably done after the 3rd or 4th cut.

While I am happy to be moving on to the final 500, I can't help but to get that "I'll probably never make it back this far ever again" feeling. I'm probably the weakest team with a top-20 survival rating this week.

If Ryan does miss time, I'm down to just one QB (Rodgers) leaving me on the outside looking in if he has a bad week.

Thanks again to those who provide the analysis (Doug D, citro...etc.)

 

[menobrown]

Sitting on 184 with 9.4 points from my TE and 10 points from my D with Shockey and Saints D to go so going to make it. Next week will be tough as WR is my weak spot and Darrell Jackson might be out.

 

[Matt Waldman]

We might have a FBG Staff Champion after this week.

Andy Hicks is through to the Top 250 500

Matt Waldman is sitting at 136.1 + Moss and needs bonus points from Shockey/Baker (TE -7.0 & Flex -6.6)

Unless Moss comes up with a 30-40 pt night, Hicks might be the only staffer through to the Top 250 500.

ETA:

Thanks for the update. I was just about to check where I stood

 

[blend]

and I'm out... Good luck to those of you moving on. Cutler and Deangelo did me in.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

We might have a FBG Staff Champion after this week.

Andy Hicks is through to the Top 250 500

Matt Waldman is sitting at 136.1 + Moss and needs bonus points from Shockey/Baker (TE -7.0 & Flex -6.6)

Unless Moss comes up with a 30-40 pt night, Hicks might be the only staffer through to the Top 250 500.

ETA:

Thanks for the update. I was just about to check where I stood

Good Luck! Here's to Moss abusing the rookie Mike Jenkins, or a banged up Jabari Greer!

 

[Dolfan]

Sitting at 164.3 with nobody playing tonight

Guess I'm rooting for a VERY low scoring game tonight... With these two teams playing, somehow that seems unlikely...

 

[Zigg]

GO MEACHEM

5.6% chance, 143 + Meachem, and maybe Shockey(-12) and NO D(-14)

At least there's hope. My 2 $26 anchors named Royal and Gonzalez have finally dragged me below the cut off.

 

[Zigg]

Sitting at 164.3 with nobody playing tonight Guess I'm rooting for a VERY low scoring game tonight... With these two teams playing, somehow that seems unlikely...

What's your %?

 

[Koya]

I thought Id have been knocked out of this WEEKS ago. Seems I am still in the game. Well, at least until this week. Hopefully Campbell's big week can help some off weeks with DeAngelo and Co.

 

[Koya]

Well, so much for that. 0 IS indeed a percent. But not a good one.

 

[Doug Drinen]

0 IS indeed a percent.

Props to the Simpsons reference.

 

[bryan11joseph]

Sitting at 164.3 with nobody playing tonight Guess I'm rooting for a VERY low scoring game tonight... With these two teams playing, somehow that seems unlikely...

What's your %?

My % is 31.6 - currently sitting at #535. Am I doomed or what???

 

[Dolfan]

Sitting at 164.3 with nobody playing tonight Guess I'm rooting for a VERY low scoring game tonight... With these two teams playing, somehow that seems unlikely...

What's your %?

It's like 42 or 43...

 

[Cantonese32]

Pre-MNF sim

I know that the FantasyStar scores are not official but I'm curious why my FantasyStar score is 165.6 but DD's pre-MNF sim has me at 160? That seems like a large variance. (#101689)

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Pre-MNF sim

I know that the FantasyStar scores are not official but I'm curious why my FantasyStar score is 165.6 but DD's pre-MNF sim has me at 160? That seems like a large variance. (#101689)

The difference between Jennings (your 2nd option for flex) and Fasano (your 1st option) is 5.6 points. DD's program may be counting Jennings as your flex rather than Fasano.Before someone gets worried, Ive used 2 TE scores in 2 weeks this season. I doubt this bug - if it is a bug with the sim - exists in the "real" program. It might mean the cut line is higher than the sim thinks though.

 

[WKTSWAY]

Ouch...2.9% chance to advance. Here's to Moss going off...

 

[ctriopelle]

Pre-MNF sim

I know that the FantasyStar scores are not official but I'm curious why my FantasyStar score is 165.6 but DD's pre-MNF sim has me at 160? That seems like a large variance. (#101689)

The difference between Jennings (your 2nd option for flex) and Fasano (your 1st option) is 5.6 points. DD's program may be counting Jennings as your flex rather than Fasano.Before someone gets worried, Ive used 2 TE scores in 2 weeks this season. I doubt this bug - if it is a bug with the sim - exists in the "real" program. It might mean the cut line is higher than the sim thinks though.

I'm preoccupied again tonight, but I suspect the difference really lies in corrected defensive scoring, coupled with some other variances (haven't had time to update TFS scoring database yet). I doubt DD's sim uses a different scoring engine than the official final stats, and I agree with his numbers every week once we rectify stat errors, so his number is likely correct. Sorry that its such a critical week, but I have some important stuff due this week that is preventing me from being completely on top of things during the games...I will attempt to provide some cut advice late tonight, but it may be less accurate than normal.

 

[H8fulHuck]

2nd year in this contest and made it one more week this time. Only a 15% chance to advance needing a big game from Brady to advance.

Congrats to those who made it this far and good luck to those remaining! I'll be back gunning for the finals again next year.

 

[The_Hoser]

Dear Drew Brees,

Please be a pal and throw the ball to Marques Colston instead of those other jerks.

Love,

Hoser.

 

[smackdaddies]

Dear Drew Brees,Please be a pal and throw the ball with Henderson instead of those other jerks like Dixon.Love,Hoser.

Fixed

 

[jon_mx]

Darn, after missing last week by one lousy point, would have made it easily this week...oh well.

 

[The_Hoser]

Dear Drew Brees,Please be a pal and throw the ball to Marques Colston instead of those other jerks.Love,Hoser.

Thanks, buddy! Your hot cocoa sampler box is on its way!

 

[drm1125]

Oh no, the current cuf-off is 167.55, I'm at 167.20. Looks like I'll be out this week.