Thanks. I thought that team was yours. I thought I had fallen into second or maybe even third place but I added something wrong and was pleased to see I'm still in first overall by 4 points. I tempered my enthusiasm after week 14 but I'm pumped now. To go into week 16 of a free contest with a chance at $20k is the greatest gift the fantasy gods have ever bestowed upon me.Not me. Just did a query on heap/Clark yesterday and this team came up. I'm rooting for you.
LOL...but your kickers are the difference in this contest. Lots of similair players at the top end, but this biggest delta I see is freaking kickers!!!menobrown said:Thanks. I thought that team was yours. I thought I had fallen into second or maybe even third place but I added something wrong and was pleased to see I'm still in first overall by 4 points. I tempered my enthusiasm after week 14 but I'm pumped now. To go into week 16 of a free contest with a chance at $20k is the greatest gift the fantasy gods have ever bestowed upon me.Not me. Just did a query on heap/Clark yesterday and this team came up. I'm rooting for you.
Not so - all I need is Matt Flynn to be the QB, throwing 12 TD's to Jennings (and 36 passes), Witten to finally play like his adp, Brees to sit out by Devery Henderson to have Jennings numbers, and DWill actually playing football, and I am pretty sure that I can win this.Oh, and Javon Walker needs to have a good gameI'm in 25th place. In order to somehow get in the top 10, I'd need huge weeks from Palmer, Peterson, Jennings, Olsen, and... oh yeah... more than 1 friggin point from my kicker.I would think the top 9 are the only ones with realistic chances at winning the big prize based on their current point standing.
;popcorn:How many teams STARTED the contest is irrelevant. Based on the current stats (which is what you used to argue the clear superiority of 24-man rosters), there are NOW about 3646 20-man teams and 2762 24-man. That means that NOW the split you used is 57-43 (not 60-40) and 5 out of 8 is 62.5%, not 60%. So, 57% of the teams get a 62.5%-37.5% advantage. It's also fascinating that this is what you'd expect "all else being equal". Isn't "all else being equal" exactly what I said? You're the one arguing that they're not equal and that 24 is clearly superior.I'm content to wait until the final 250 and see how it shakes out.I disagree. There are a lot more 20-man rosters than 24 starting the contest. If you just look at the 20 vs. 24 man rosters it's a 60/40 split. So all else being equal there should be more 20-man teams in the Top 10. You are saying there are 5 of the top 10 that are 20 man and 3 that are 24 man. That is basically a 60/40 split! So - this has shown nothing. Throw in that the other 2 are 23 man rosters (rather than 21 or 22) - and you would have to conclude that having more guys has made you more likely to score high in a given week so far too (when you compare to the number of rosters at each size). And of course there's the problem that having a high score with 20 guys in Week 1 or Week 2 is a lot easier than in Week 14 or 15 when guys have gotten injured and of course it's harder to predict exactly who will be good 14 weeks out.Actually, what you've seen is what both camps predicted coming true. I could just as easily argue that if you're in the 24-camp, your theory could still be correct, but it is in doubt unless it comes to fruition in Weeks 14-16. Look at this week's top 10 scoring teams: 3 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 10 have 20-man rosters. Only 3 of the top 10 (#2,5 & 6) have 24-man rosters and 2 (#7 & #10) have 23-man rosters. The things that favor 20-man rosters haven't happened yet either: 160+ cut lines in Weeks 12 and 13 and needing to average about 20 points per player position in weeks 14-16 to win. So, odds are it is going to look better for 24-man teams before the bottom drops out.
Lastly - you also need to look at which teams were good in Week 1 and Week 2 to have any kind of argument. The winner has to score high every week in Weeks 14-16 to win. People who scored high this week had Chris Johnson and Schaub for example - that didn't work out so great last week.
Hey there Doug. Is there a blimp in your sim? The 51-100 column takes a huge jump from team 16-17. I could understand that just looking at those two teams, but it also captures the teams around them.Also this team (currently 133 spot) http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2009/109790.php has a chance (albeit slim) at taking the top prize. Taking his best scores at each position for the entire year you come up with 315 pts. I'm not sure that would be enough to jump all the people in front of him. The odds of all those best scores lining up in the same week have to astronomical. I ran out of zeros on my calculator.
I do wonder if this season might prove to be the exception and not the norm. I don't know stats on this but this year seems like a pretty healthy year for the top tier QB's. Going off memory I can only think of one pre-season top 10 QB who missed more than one game and that was Mcnabb out for two games. Looking at the general pre-season top 10 QB list I only come up with 4 games due missed in total due to injury with Warner and Rothlisberger missing one apiece and for that matter Ben was not a consensus top 10 preseason fantasy QB. So not knowing past stats 4 missed game in total for your top 10+ QB's seems better than usual. The part I'd worry about next year is half of the games missed were due to concussion. I can't say for certain but I think both Warner and Big Ben would not have missed a game with concussion symptoms last year or even earlier this year. It's only been a short time since the concussion policy changes and it's had a huge impact on missed games already for QB's and other positions as well. I fear next year the concussion policy is going to lead to more missed games for key NFL players than possibly ever before.I've always thought that 2 QBs was the way to go if you want to win this contest. The 3 QB teams survive at a better rate, but the third QB becomes dead weight when you need to post big numbers. Six of the top ten have rostered 2 QBs. Three of the remaining four have Leinart who was useless to them. Those guys are probably wishing they had spent that $4 on harrison/Meachum/Finley/etc. This may not be statistically significant, but it does counter balance the statements from many others posted here that have stuck in my head saying next year three QBs is a must.
I have a .04 percent chance of finishing first. So your saying I have a chance.
You should PM Dodds and Drinen ASAP. You don't want this thin to go final before they address your question.GL tonite...which guys do you have going that we can root for???I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Negative yards do count. Austin has 16.9 and Jackson has 13.0 for this week.I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Go Shiancoe!It looks like a two-horse race
Team 102834 is in the clubhouse with a (roughly) 3-point lead over 109769, which has Earl Bennett and Percy Harvin minus 10.4 and 13.0, and Gould -12. Talk about a nail-biter!
Meanwhile Team 109063 could win it with an epic performace from Shiancoe, Team 107019 is holding onto a slim hope of a multi-TD game by the Vikings' D, Team 108773 needs a huge effort from Cutler, and a few other teams have a tiny chance.
Thanks. Drinen responded before I could get this message out and negative scoring does count.So I trail by 1.1 points. I have a few ways to make it up. Schilens is in as one of my WR's with 10.4 points and I have Harvin and Earl Bennett going so if one of them hits 11.5 it would get me there. Secondly I have Prater in as my Kicker with 12 points and have Gould going so 14 points from him would do the trick. I would add there are two other teams with an outside chance of making up the ground but I'm focusing on the scenario above. Team 107019 which entered this week in second place looks like they could pass me with either 31.23 points from the Vikes D or 27.13 points from the Vikes D if Harvin hits 15.8 points or more and Bennett and Gould don't add to my totals. With Cutler at QB and Harvin in the return game I'd have to say this does concern me. Team 109063 can pass me with 34.55 points from Shiancoe or 29.75 points from Shiancoe if Harvin hits 15.8 or more and Bennett and Gould don't add to my total.I won't say I won't be disappointed to not win but this has sure been fun either way. I went into last nights game with about a 6 point lead and Romo while the team trailing me had Austin. I left that game trailing by a point or two but it sure was exciting to watch and I'm looking forward to more excitement tonight. Having something fantasy football related with fairly high stakes involved entering the MNF game in week 16 is pretty cool. So either way thanks to Footballguys.com for this contest.You should PM Dodds and Drinen ASAP. You don't want this thin to go final before they address your question.GL tonite...which guys do you have going that we can root for???I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Sweet. So I trail by only 1.1 points. ETA the www.fantasystar.com website is not calculating the negative points for lost yardage.Negative yards do count. Austin has 16.9 and Jackson has 13.0 for this week.I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!You should PM Dodds and Drinen ASAP. You don't want this thin to go final before they address your question.GL tonite...which guys do you have going that we can root for???I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Sure...how many points do you need from him? Something like a career year in one nite???Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!You should PM Dodds and Drinen ASAP. You don't want this thin to go final before they address your question.GL tonite...which guys do you have going that we can root for???I had a question on the scoring for this event. Are negative yards not added into a players total? For instance Miles Austin caught 9 balls for 92 yards and ran one time for -13 yards. I added it up as him having 16.9 points but without adding in the negative yards he's at 18.2. The team currently in first had Austin and I'm chasing him and have Desean Jackson who also lost 3 yards on a run and his total does not reflect the 3 yard loss. If we add negative yards I trail by 1.1 points but if we don't add negative yards I trail by 2.1 points and would like to know for sure before the Monday Night Game so I know what what to root for.
Team 107019 which entered this week in second place looks like they could pass me with either 31.23 points from the Vikes D or 27.13 points from the Vikes D if Harvin hits 15.8 points or more and Bennett and Gould don't add to my totals. With Cutler at QB and Harvin in the return game I'd have to say this does concern me.

It's not totally out of the question. Assuming The Amalgamated is 109063, then he needs Shiancoe to get about 24 and Earl Bennett, Percy Harvin, and Robbie Gould to all stay in single digits or close to it.EDIT: he also needs to Vikings D to stay under 20 or so. And a decent day from the Vikings D combined with a huge day from Cutler could hurt him too.BassNBrew said:Sure...how many points do you need from him? Something like a career year in one nite???The Amalgamated said:Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!
yep, that's me! Wow I can't believe that. Sorry about the short posts but I'm checking this between holiday travel, visiting the inlaws and keeping an eye on my brother's blogging about the birth of his first child and doing it from my iPhone. What an incredible finish and (of course) great contest. Thanks footballguys!It's not totally out of the question. Assuming The Amalgamated is 109063, then he needs Shiancoe to get about 24 and Earl Bennett, Percy Harvin, and Robbie Gould to all stay in single digits or close to it.EDIT: he also needs to Vikings D to stay under 20 or so. And a decent day from the Vikings D combined with a huge day from Cutler could hurt him too.BassNBrew said:Sure...how many points do you need from him? Something like a career year in one nite???The Amalgamated said:Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!
I think you need Shiancoe to add 24 points to your total not score 24 points. So he'd need to better Finley's 12.5 by close to 24 points. I think this is correct but Drinen can verify. I was wrong earlier about my total as I thought I trailed first place by 1.1 points but Drinen pointed out I trail by 2.3 points so maybe it's possible I'm wrong again but I see you as scoring 166.65 points this week which got you 5.75 points closer to me and currently trailing me by 21.5 points and the overall leader by 23.8. Finley gave you 12.5 from your TE spot and Rice 16 as your flex so any improvement over 12.5 would go towards your TE position which is why I think you need Shiancoe to score 36.3 to tie for first place. I understand you have Harvin but I do as well and I would actually gain more from him than you would if he produces. For me he would replace Schilens 10.4 but the best player he could replace for you is VJAX's 12.3.Anyway good luck and enjoy the game. I did not say any of this to burst you bubble just would hate to see someone celebrate and find out later they did not win which is why I'm very glad Drinen pointed out my error earlier.yep, that's me! Wow I can't believe that. Sorry about the short posts but I'm checking this between holiday travel, visiting the inlaws and keeping an eye on my brother's blogging about the birth of his first child and doing it from my iPhone. What an incredible finish and (of course) great contest. Thanks footballguys!It's not totally out of the question. Assuming The Amalgamated is 109063, then he needs Shiancoe to get about 24 and Earl Bennett, Percy Harvin, and Robbie Gould to all stay in single digits or close to it.EDIT: he also needs to Vikings D to stay under 20 or so. And a decent day from the Vikings D combined with a huge day from Cutler could hurt him too.BassNBrew said:Sure...how many points do you need from him? Something like a career year in one nite???The Amalgamated said:Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!
Yes. Meno is correct and I am a dope. Shiancoe does indeed need around 36 points for you to win.I think you need Shiancoe to add 24 points to your total not score 24 points. So he'd need to better Finley's 12.5 by close to 24 points. I think this is correct but Drinen can verify. I was wrong earlier about my total as I thought I trailed first place by 1.1 points but Drinen pointed out I trail by 2.3 points so maybe it's possible I'm wrong again but I see you as scoring 166.65 points this week which got you 5.75 points closer to me and currently trailing me by 21.5 points and the overall leader by 23.8. Finley gave you 12.5 from your TE spot and Rice 16 as your flex so any improvement over 12.5 would go towards your TE position which is why I think you need Shiancoe to score 36.3 to tie for first place. I understand you have Harvin but I do as well and I would actually gain more from him than you would if he produces. For me he would replace Schilens 10.4 but the best player he could replace for you is VJAX's 12.3.Anyway good luck and enjoy the game. I did not say any of this to burst you bubble just would hate to see someone celebrate and find out later they did not win which is why I'm very glad Drinen pointed out my error earlier.yep, that's me! Wow I can't believe that. Sorry about the short posts but I'm checking this between holiday travel, visiting the inlaws and keeping an eye on my brother's blogging about the birth of his first child and doing it from my iPhone. What an incredible finish and (of course) great contest. Thanks footballguys!It's not totally out of the question. Assuming The Amalgamated is 109063, then he needs Shiancoe to get about 24 and Earl Bennett, Percy Harvin, and Robbie Gould to all stay in single digits or close to it.EDIT: he also needs to Vikings D to stay under 20 or so. And a decent day from the Vikings D combined with a huge day from Cutler could hurt him too.BassNBrew said:Sure...how many points do you need from him? Something like a career year in one nite???The Amalgamated said:Everybody loves an underdog ... root for Shiancoe!
That's the spirit!36 it is! No one said it would be easy.
Career half coming up....That's the spirit!36 it is! No one said it would be easy.
in FG range now...Menobrown needs one Gould FG to take home the top prize...
I see you here dude. That takes some stones. GL!!!Career quarter?Career half coming up....That's the spirit!36 it is! No one said it would be easy.
Career OT comeback from injury????And Shiancoe appears to be done -- and my longshot chance too. Wow that was fun. Congrats to the winner!