Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (2 Viewers)

[flapgreen]

What have  you read from people saying he isn't "capable"??  Lot of unproven guys have the ability to be good, but that doesn't mean they will be obviously. 

Simply put, JG hasn't done anything to prove he is worth much more than what he was when he was drafted.  Not really his fault.  He just hasn't had the opportunity. 

If you want to say he did ok in a few quarters this year fine, but when you are on the best organization in football for a couple years it wouldn't be very surprising that a QB would do fairly well at the beginning of the season when the teams he is facing are nowhere near as prepared as your team.  Even below average talent at QB could fair well in that situation. 

Hence, JG hasn't showed much of anything.  Again, not his fault, but those are the facts. 

edit.................I quoted the wrong thing, mean to quote where you talked about JG being capable

Hint: The rookies getting drafted every year haven't shown anything in the NFL either.  The difference is Garoppolo has had a couple years to sit and learn how the NFL works, something most of the first round QBs never get a chance to do.  If someone likes his traits and wants a guy who's ready to start now, he's your guy.  Draft picks have become way overvalued.  Obviously, there's a limit to what a team should give up.  If they think he's a franchise qb now, that's worth a lot, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't get the best deal they can for him.  I'd start by offering a 3rd early on and then bumping it up to a two until right at draft time, then maybe more depending on how it played out. That's if I was a GM and saw him as a franchise qb. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

He's more than a little inaccurate by today's standards and he's got a weak arm.

You quoted a question about Glennon and then you responded with this.  Are you still talking about Glennon in your response?  I have to ask because of the bolded comment.  If that's aimed at Glennon then the next question is whether you've actually ever seen him play.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This seems more realistic to me.  Talk of a 2nd or a 2nd and a 3rd is way off the mark IMO.  If they move him at all.

The moved Chandler Jones before the 2016 season, a Pro Bowl DE in 2015 who started as a rookie and is considered one of the best pass rushers for a late 2nd and a guy they cut and then Jamie Collins, a guy who didn't start as a rookie but rang up over 115 tackles his second season and was a Pro Bowler and backup ALL-PRO in 2015 for a 'conditional' 3rd round comp pick because they were due big contracts.

Jimmy is due a big contract extension and they 'reportedly' want to move him.  If he leaves in free agency the most they can get is only a 3rd round comp pick in 2019.

If they keep him, they would have to extend his contract or franchise him after this year.  If they franchise him he becomes the highest paid backup in NFL history with a cap hit over $24 million.  It appears they have made the decision that they can live without him because they haven't extended him and are shopping him just as they did with Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins where they took below market value for more proven guys in their prime.

Jimmy isn't proven like Jones and Collins were, there are questions about Garoppolo's game and the contract he'd demand and why the Patriots apparently don't think he's worthy of being their franchise QB because if they truly felt he was, they simply would have already extended him.

They have not extended him, they have moved guys wanting big paydays, they are shopping him because they didn't extend him and can't afford to franchise him as the highest paid backup in NFL history, so they want to move him but anyone looking at it realistically can add it up to see they have ZERO leverage.  

Start with, the guy isn't a franchise QB, he's not worth a 'Brock Ossweiler' contract that he would demand and he's certainly not worth a high first and the top pick of the second round.  

 

[Ditka Butkus]

college stats don't mean a whole lot. 

It's not what I've seen from jimmy it's that we haven't seen much. 

Yet Mariotas college stats meant enough that he was drafted in the first round given a large contract and a starting gig before ever throwing a football in the N F L

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

the guy isn't a franchise QB

And this is where we disagree.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

And this is where we disagree.

OK, I'M DYING to actually hear WHY this guy is a franchise quarterback.  WHY?

I've been asking for months and no one has made the case other than to say, 'teams are desperate for a quarterback' but they avoid making the case that Jimmy Garoppolo is a franchise QB.  Some even admit he's not but you say he is.  OK, WHY the F is this guy a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You also have to look at Garoppolo's draft position differently than Mariota's.  Smaller school guys are typically drafted later than Heisman candidates who played for National Champ contending major programs (all else equal).

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

OK, I'M DYING to actually hear WHY this guy is a franchise quarterback.  WHY?

I've been asking for months and no one has made the case other than to say, 'teams are desperate for a quarterback' but they avoid making the case that Jimmy Garoppolo is a franchise QB.  Some even admit he's not but you say he is.  OK, WHY the F is this guy a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK?

I can only speak for myself...

Very early draft position for a small school player.  My estimate on his "adjusted draft position" puts him in the very early 1st round.

Ideal build -- he fits one of the physical prototypes almost perfectly.

Strong arm.

Outstanding NCAA stats.

Top-tier elite score on the measure I use to judge underlying QB talent in the pros.  If he'd done the same thing on a few hundred more attempts I'd say lock it up, but as it is there's plenty of uncertainty:

Aaron Rodgers	3.26 
Steve Young*	3.10 
Joe Montana*	2.73 
Dan Marino*	2.69 
Tony Romo	2.62 
Peyton Manning	2.57 
Tom Brady	2.54 
Drew Brees	2.45 
Jimmy Garoppolo	2.35 
Jim Kelly*	2.34 
Russell Wilson	2.28 
Kurt Warner*	2.25 
Dak Prescott	2.24 
Philip Rivers	2.16 
Marcus Mariota	2.15 
Boomer Esiason	2.13

 

[Bracie Smathers]

You also have to look at Garoppolo's draft position differently than Mariota's.  Smaller school guys are typically drafted later than Heisman candidates who played for National Champ contending major programs (all else equal).

A late 2nd round QB is comparable to the 2nd pick in the draft?  Um, ok, ummm.

No it is not.  Late 2nd round QB picks have terrible hit rates VS. top-2 picks.

I can only speak for myself...

Very early draft position for a small school player.  My estimate on his "adjusted draft position" puts him in the very early 1st round.

Ideal build -- he fits one of the physical prototypes almost perfectly.

Strong arm.

Outstanding NCAA stats.

Top-tier elite score on the measure I use to judge underlying QB talent in the pros.  If he'd done the same thing on a few hundred more attempts I'd say lock it up, but as it is there's plenty of uncertainty:

Aaron Rodgers 3.26
Steve Young* 3.10
Joe Montana* 2.73
Dan Marino* 2.69
Tony Romo 2.62
Peyton Manning 2.57
Tom Brady 2.54
Drew Brees 2.45
Jimmy Garoppolo 2.35
Jim Kelly* 2.34
Russell Wilson 2.28
Kurt Warner* 2.25
Dak Prescott 2.24
Philip Rivers 2.16
Marcus Mariota 2.15
Boomer Esiason 2.13

Strong arm?

He has shown terrible deep ball accuracy in the NFL.  

Who cares about a strong arm if it is inaccurate when asked to make deep throws? 

 

[-OZ-]

Yet Mariotas college stats meant enough that he was drafted in the first round given a large contract and a starting gig before ever throwing a football in the N F L

It wasn't just his stats. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

A late 2nd round QB is comparable to the 2nd pick in the draft?  Um, ok, ummm.

No it is not.  Late 2nd round QB picks have terrible hit rates VS. top-2 picks.

Strong arm?

He has shown terrible deep ball accuracy in the NFL.  

Who cares about a strong arm if it is inaccurate when asked to make deep throws? 

Like I said... we disagree.  But you asked why, and I told you.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Like I said... we disagree.  But you asked why, and I told you.

LOL, the three reasons you gave are. his draft position doesn't matter because YOU adjusted it based on, size, ARM STRENGTH, and college stats.

You didn't make a case, you avoided it just as everyone else here has because HE'S NOT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK and you can't make the case he is.  

College stats don't matter or it would be easy to take the top college stats guys and draft them him and watch the success in the NFL?  Size??  Really?  Come on.  Or the fact that YOU adjusted his draft status?  Then you list ARM STRENGTH?  Have you seen Jimmy-G attempt to throw a deep ball in the NFL?  I have and his deep ball accuracy sucks.  

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Guess we'll have to wait and see how things play out.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Guess we'll have to wait and see how things play out.

In terms of what?  That he IS a franchise quarterback?  Or that the Pats will sucker someone into trading for him and taking his huge contract off their books?  I'm on record, he's not a 'franchise' quarterback.  He isn't.  He can't throw open WRs. he hesitates on his second read, when he takes a hard shot his footwork becomes choppy, and when he has taken a really big hit he folded.  We are dealing with limited tape on a guy in tightly controlled Josh McDaniels system where his bread-and-butter is making one pre-snap read to hit the quick-hitter slant.  Good stuff but not NFL FRANCHISE QB worthy.  

If some team gets him, he will have limited success unless he gets hurt and he 'appears' brittle from the limited tape we have on him.

I want a team, other than mine, to take the gamble so I'm hoping this smoke-and-mirrors PR blitz works and that other teams fall for the rookie QBs because I'm not thrilled with any option this year especially Jimmy Garoppolo who I consider the worst possible option because he's not a franchise QB and would cost too much and when next year's crop of QBs are available, whoever takes JG will not have the ammo or incentive to take one because he's going to be playing, eh/ok but not good enough make a difference because he's not a franchise QB.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I can only speak for myself...

Very early draft position for a small school player.  My estimate on his "adjusted draft position" puts him in the very early 1st round.

Ideal build -- he fits one of the physical prototypes almost perfectly.

Strong arm.

Outstanding NCAA stats.

Top-tier elite score on the measure I use to judge underlying QB talent in the pros.  If he'd done the same thing on a few hundred more attempts I'd say lock it up, but as it is there's plenty of uncertainty:

Aaron Rodgers 3.26
Steve Young* 3.10
Joe Montana* 2.73
Dan Marino* 2.69
Tony Romo 2.62
Peyton Manning 2.57
Tom Brady 2.54
Drew Brees 2.45
Jimmy Garoppolo 2.35
Jim Kelly* 2.34
Russell Wilson 2.28
Kurt Warner* 2.25
Dak Prescott 2.24
Philip Rivers 2.16
Marcus Mariota 2.15
Boomer Esiason 2.13

So you have him as potentially the 9th best QB in NFL history.  Why are the Pats trading him?  If these stats have any meaning then you move Brady after next year and keep Garapollo to run your O for the next 15 years.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I wouldn't go that far.  I'd just say that his results so far have been elite in terms of what matters for long-term success.  But, since the results aren't long-term in his case, there's a lot of room for doubt.

Not sure what X I'd use in this sentence, "He as an X% chance to be an elite QB in the context of modern QBs," but it's big enough that I'd absolutely take the chance if I needed a QB.

 

[bostonfred]

@Bracie Smathers is 100% right that based on draft position and production alone, JG isn't worth nearly what's being discussed. If the scouts don't like what they saw in his limited action since then they shouldn't pay nearly a first and second for him.

It sounds like the scouts do like what they've seen.  It doesn't have to be his deep ball accuracy. I don't know what it is, but one likely answer is that they like his ability to run the Patriots offense and they feel that he can run a similar offense somewhere else. For a Hue Jackson team, a high percentage short passing game mixed with a strong running game with the threat of going deep to Coleman a couple times a game sounds pretty attractive.  

Here's the scouting report when he came out.  Pretty much everything saying he projects to be an NFL quality starter but needs 2-3 years to get there because he was a late bloomer and didn't play in an NFL style offense in college. 

If you look at it through that lens, teams passed on him because he wasn't NFL ready, and the Patriots invested a later second into developing him and either keeping him as their future franchise starter or teasing him as a potential franchise qb. In other words, the hype may be real. 

Prospect Profile: Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo

By Dane Brugler

Jan 17, 2014 • 3 min read

Garoppolo comes from a spread, shotgun attack at the FCS level. (USATSI)

Entering the East-West Shrine Game week, I listed Eastern Illinois senior QB Jimmy Garoppolo as my top NFL prospect in St. Petersburg and through a week of practice, that won’t change. He showed off a NFL arm, excellent eye use to scan the field and an extremely quick and efficient release - all attributes he showed on tape. Garoppolo, who measured in at 6-2 and 225 pounds, isn’t a flawless prospect and also has some areas he needs to improve. 

Coming from a spread, shotgun offensive attack at the FCS-level, there are some transition questions, but Garoppolo will be able to further answer those concerns at the Senior Bowl, suiting up on the South squad under the direction of the Jacksonville Jaguars coaching staff. He currently ranks as NFLDraftScout.com’s No. 9 overall quarterback and No. 3 Senior Bowl quarterback, behind Fresno State’s Derek Carr and San Jose State’s David Fales, who are both also on the Senior Bowl’s South Team.

Here is Garoppolo’s full scouting report:

STRENGTHS: Good, not great, height, body type and hand size…better than adequate arm strength with a snap release that produces some juice – live arm with his experience coming from a pass-happy offense…excellent passing vision with quick eyes to scan and a quick, natural delivery – gets the ball out quick…smart and executes the offense well – quick intellectual process on the football field…above average timing with little unnecessary movements…quick feet to evade pressure with the pocket mobility to move his lower body with his eyes focused downfield…gets “happy feet” at times, but shows the ability to reset…very good touch and overall placement with improved accuracy to all levels of the field throughout his career…level-headed and always under control with a strong leadership presence…confident thrower and short memory…elite career production as a four-year starter at the FCS level, including a record-breaking senior season (won the 2013 Walter Payton Award) – broke almost all of Tony Romo’s school records and leaves the college ranks with 13,156 passing yards and 118 passing touchdowns in his career.

WEAKNESSES: Lack of elite velocity will show on some NFL throws…needs to continue to improve his decision-making and not allow pressure to severely alter his process – bad habit of forcing throws in small windows…lower-than-ideal release point with an almost side-arm motion at times…needs to get his feet under control on a consistent basis and regularly step into his throws…needs to continue and develop his pocket awareness and internal clock to feel pressure…holds the ball too long at times and will take unnecessary hits…experience is in a FCS spread, shotgun attack, needs to become more acclimated with under-center snaps.

SUMMARY: A late bloomer, Garoppolo didn’t receive much attention as a high school recruit, but he became the starter at Eastern Illinois midway through his freshman season and steadily improved his play and production ever since. He culminated his career with a record-breaking senior season, operating from a mostly shotgun, spread attack with a lot of quick-strike throws (screens, slants, etc.). Garoppolo is a very efficient and smart passer with lightning quickness between the time he takes the snap, makes a decision and gets the ball out of his hand. He lacks elite arm strength, but is more than adequate in this area and isn’t afraid to test small windows. Garoppolo is appealing as a next level quarterback because of his eye use, timing and overall intellectual process as a passer – will benefit from NFL coaching and should continue to get better, prrojecting as a future NFL starter within 2-3 years.

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING: “His delivery is the best I’ve seen in the last five years. He sees the field, makes the read and gets the ball out fast. Everything is a tick faster in the league so that efficient delivery is a big coup for his NFL future.” – NFC North scout 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/prospect-profile-eastern-illinois-qb-jimmy-garoppolo

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW, I've thought for a few years that the small school draft discount might be due to an adjustment period.  i.e. if a guy is going to be near the end of his rookie deal before he can help you it's not worth taking him as high regardless of what you think about his long-term prospects.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

FWIW, I've thought for a few years if the small school draft discount had to do with an adjustment period.  i.e. if a guy is going to be near the end of his rookie deal before he can help you it's not worth taking him as high regardless of what you think about his long-term prospects.

Here is the un-adjusted late second round QB selections, pick 40 to the end of the 2nd round, made in the NFL draft from the turn of the century to last year.

This is the where Jimmy Garoppolo rates with other NFL QBs in terms of current draft position.  Draft position is based on how the scouts value players.

Year    No.    Round    Pick    Player    Name    Team    College
2016    
     4    2    20    51    Christian Hackenberg    Jets    Penn State

2014    
     5    2    30    62    Jimmy Garoppolo    Patriots    Eastern Illinois

2012    
     5    2    25    57    Brock Osweiler    Broncos    Arizona State

2010    
     3    2    16    48    Jimmy Clausen    Panthers    Notre Dame

2009    
     4    2    12    44    Pat White    Dolphins    West Virginia

2008    
     3    2    25    56    Brian Brohm    Packers    Louisville
     4    2    26    57    Chad Henne    Dolphins    Michigan

2007    
     4    2    8    40    John Beck    Dolphins    Brigham Young
     5    2    11    43    Drew Stanton    Lions    Michigan State

2006    
     4    2    17    49    Kellen Clemens    Jets    Oregon
     5    2    32    64    Tarvaris Jackson    Vikings    Alabama State
 

Not very good company I'd say.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yes, if you think those are his peers the odds don't look very good.

 

[Riversco]

Here is the un-adjusted late second round QB selections, pick 40 to the end of the 2nd round, made in the NFL draft from the turn of the century to last year.

This is the where Jimmy Garoppolo rates with other NFL QBs in terms of current draft position.  Draft position is based on how the scouts value players.

Year    No.    Round    Pick    Player    Name    Team    College
2016    
     4    2    20    51    Christian Hackenberg    Jets    Penn State

2014    
     5    2    30    62    Jimmy Garoppolo    Patriots    Eastern Illinois

2012    
     5    2    25    57    Brock Osweiler    Broncos    Arizona State

2010    
     3    2    16    48    Jimmy Clausen    Panthers    Notre Dame

2009    
     4    2    12    44    Pat White    Dolphins    West Virginia

2008    
     3    2    25    56    Brian Brohm    Packers    Louisville
     4    2    26    57    Chad Henne    Dolphins    Michigan

2007    
     4    2    8    40    John Beck    Dolphins    Brigham Young
     5    2    11    43    Drew Stanton    Lions    Michigan State

2006    
     4    2    17    49    Kellen Clemens    Jets    Oregon
     5    2    32    64    Tarvaris Jackson    Vikings    Alabama State
 

Not very good company I'd say.

Any QB taken outside the top 5 has only at 10-15% chance to make it at best.  Doesn't matter if its 1st round or 5th.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Any QB taken outside the top 5 has only at 10-15% chance to make it at best.  Doesn't matter if its 1st round or 5th.

Wrong.  Does matter if its a 1st or 5th round pick and I won't bother to argue because if you don't see it then....

He compared Jimmy-G to Marcus Mariota who was the 2nd pick in the draft and then cherry picked an adjusted list to put him with only top QBs, this is un-adjusted based on late 2nd round picks.  He WAS taken late in the 2nd round and that is the group of QBs taken late in the second round in this millennium.

 

[Riversco]

Wrong.  Does matter if its a 1st or 5th round pick and I won't bother to argue because if you don't see it then....

He compared Jimmy-G to Marcus Mariota who was the 2nd pick in the draft and then cherry picked an adjusted list to put him with only top QBs, this is un-adjusted based on late 2nd round picks.  He WAS taken late in the 2nd round and that is the group of QBs taken late in the second round in this millennium.

Wrong.  I did an extensive study going year by year and round by round.  Its all the same outside the top 5.  Only a 10-15% chance to make it. There is no value in picking a QB, for example, in late round 1 because a QB in round 3 has the same odds to make it.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wrong.  I did an extensive study going year by year and round by round.  Its all the same outside the top 5.  Only a 10-15% chance to make it. There is no value in picking a QB, for example, in late round 1 because a QB in round 3 has the same odds to make it.

 

[Riversco]

There's like 10 teams that have no QB. Some of these might be starting guys that were picked outside the top 5 but have long odds to make it.  There are 12 teams who have starting QBs taken top 5.  Then there are 10 teams with other solutions that were found outside the top 5 over the last 17 years of drafts.  

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Wrong.  I did an extensive study going year by year and round by round.  Its all the same outside the top 5.  Only a 10-15% chance to make it. There is no value in picking a QB, for example, in late round 1 because a QB in round 3 has the same odds to make it.

I saw it and it was good work however QBs taken in the 1st round, outside of the top five do hold a greater advantage in terms of success.

From the turn of the century, these guys have all been long-term starters.  Super Bowl champions and Pro Bowlers taken outside of the top-5 but still in the first round.  

In 2001 the 1st round of the NFL draft did not extend to pick #32 but currently does so I include Brees in the current definition of the top-32 picks which are in the first round. 

2001    
     2    2    1    32    Drew Brees    Chargers    Purdue

2004    
     3    1    11    11    Ben Roethlisberger    Steelers    Miami (OH)

2005    
     2    1    24    24    Aaron Rodgers    Packers    California

2006    
     3    1    11    11    Jay Cutler    Broncos    Vanderbilt

2008    
     2    1    18    18    Joe Flacco    Ravens    Delaware

2012    
     3    1    8    8    Ryan Tannehill    Dolphins    Texas A&M

2014    
     3    1    32    32    Teddy Bridgewater    Vikings    Louisville

Of the list of late 2nd round picks you won't find one long term starter, not a single one.

 

[Tool]

Wrong.  I did an extensive study going year by year and round by round.  Its all the same outside the top 5.  Only a 10-15% chance to make it. There is no value in picking a QB, for example, in late round 1 because a QB in round 3 has the same odds to make it.

I'd be interested in seeing that study.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'd be interested in seeing that study.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/516588-cleveland-browns-thread/?do=findComment&comment=19748856

Historically, QBs taken in the top 5 picks have about a 50% chance of becoming a good QB.  Outside the top 5, you have about a 10-15% chance of finding one.

Breakdown of QBs and where they were selected, asterisk means they made it.

 QBs taken in the top 5 1991-2015:  93 (Bledsoe*, Mirer), 94 (Shuler), 95 (McNair*, Kerry Collins), 98 (Manning*, Leaf), 99 (Couch, McNabb*, Akili Smith), 01 (Vick*), 02 (David Carr, Harrington), 03 (Palmer*), 04 (Manning*, Rivers*), 05 (Alex Smith*), 06 (Vince Young), 07 (JeMarcus Russell), 08 (Ryan*), 09 (Stafford*, Sanchez), 10 (Bradford), 11 (Newton*), 12 (Luck*, RG3), 14 (Bortles), 15 (Winston*, Mariota*)

29 QBs were taken in the top 5.  14 panned out, just under 50%..  Immediately you can see that the Browns core issue is that since 1999 they only made ONE attempt (Couch).  They should set a goal of picking 4-5 QBs top 5.  

QBs taken in round 1 but outside the top 5:  91 (McGwire, Marinovich), 92 (Klinger, Maddox, Brown), 94 (Dilfer), 97 (Druckenmiller), 99 (Culpepper*, McNown), 00 (Pennington), 02 (Ramsey), 03 (Leftwich, Boller, Grossman), 04 (Roethlisberger*, Losman), 05 (Rodgers*, Campbell), 06 (Leinart, Cutler), 07 (Quinn), 08 (Flacco*), 09 (Freeman), 10 (Tebow), 11 (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder), 12 (Tannehill*, Weeden), 13 (Manuel), 14 (Manziel, Bridgewater)

32 QBs were taken in round 1 outside the top 5.  Only 5 made it, one only made it for 5 years (Culpepper) and only 2 look to be hall of famers.  The rest were worthless.  The Browns have 2 picks in here (Weeden, Manziel) and of course with the long odds they missed on both.

Then if you look at rounds 2-3, there are something like 35 QBs taken and the only ones to pan out are Favre, Brees, Russell, Dalton, and Derek Carr). Again the Browns have two picks in here (Frye, Kessler) and odds would say this is bad strategy.

When you don't have a QB, and you land a top 5 pick, and you believe there is a QB that will go in the top 5, I think you have to get him.  But right now I doubt the scouting community grades any QB in this draft a top 5 pick.  The Browns got the #1 pick in the wrong year.  That's their own fault because Wentz fell to them and they passed on him, so I guess this is karma biting the Browns for screwing up the draft last year.  So Garrett should be their pick, but the way the Browns do things I wouldn't be surprised if they screwed this up as well.

 

[Riversco]

Taking a look at the guys not taken top 5 that made it is interesting to do.  And then apply what you read to JG and Kizer.

1.  Ben Roethlisberger. - Had the size, strong arm, mobile, good pocket awareness, natural leader.  Not selected top 5 because he went to a small school and didn't show he can read defenses well.  He got pretty good at reading defenses in the NFL.

2. Derek Carr - Very smart, reads defenses, cannon arm, mobile, good pocket awareness, natural leader, family guy.  Not selected top 5 because he didn't play in a pro offense and his brother was a bust.

3.  Joe Flacco - Very strong arm, tall, good ball placement.  Not selected top 5 because struggles to read defenses, locks onto guys, not mobile, questionable pocket presence, not really a vocal leader.  He's become a above average starter but not a franchise QB.

4. Andy Dalton - accurate, mobile.  Not a top 5 pick because he doesn't have a strong arm, struggles with reading defenses and vs the blitz, and questionable leadership skills.  Is an average starter for the Bengals but nothing great.

5.  Dak Prescott - strong arm, good at reading defenses.  Not a top 5 pick because the mental aspect of his game only developed in his last year in college, plus he had accuracy issues.  The worries about the mental aspect of his game were unfounded.  He turned out to be a lot more accurate in the NFL than he was in college and the reason appears to be that he had a horrible offensive line in college that dropped his accuracy which was something no scout could have foreseen (because you can't assume his accuracy would dramatically improve behind a strong Oline in the NFL).

6. Russell Wilson - Strong arm, accurate, mobile, intangibles are off the charts in terms of leadership skills. natural leader.  Dropped to round 3 because he was 5'10".  Whoops!

7. Aaron Rodgers - Strong arm, accurate, mobile, very smart and can read the defense, natural leader.  Not drafted top 5 because he is a little short at 6'2" and was a "Tedford" guy. Jeff Tedford is a college coach known for having QBs excel in his system and failing in the pros, suchas Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Trent Dilfer.  Also Rodgers had bad mechanics when drafted.   

Let's look at Garoppolo's scouting report:  

Pinpoint accuracy, reads defenses very well, very very smart, Not a top 5 pick because he has small hands, is not very mobile, not really good throwing on the run, and is a little small at 6'2" for some teams.  

DeShone Kizer's scouting report:

Cannon arm, reads defenses very well, very smart, mobile, natural leader, People are dropping him out of the top 5 because his head coach is a moron and benched him in his senior year not for anything Kizer did, but because he promised the other QB he would get a chance to start.  Losing that job for a little bit drove teams away.

So, yeah, take Kizer....

 

[DropKick]

Wrong.  I did an extensive study going year by year and round by round.  Its all the same outside the top 5.  Only a 10-15% chance to make it. There is no value in picking a QB, for example, in late round 1 because a QB in round 3 has the same odds to make it.

I don't think it is a question of odds (the stats over the history of NFL drafts) as much as it is the individual player and situation.  Did the Seahawks really like (and target) Russell Wilson with a 3rd round pick?  Did the Cowboys luck into Prescott (4th) after failed attempts to move up for Lynch or Cook?  There are claims, possibly anecdotal, that they interviewed him more closely than an other QB and were impressed with maturity, etc.

Teams find themselves in position of need at QB and, to be blunt, good ones are in short supply.  Not every team has a high 1st round pick for the Peyton Mannings and Andrew Lucks of the world.  Of course, you could always tank a season to be such position but no one would really do that would they (cough; see Indy Colts and half the NBA)?  So depending on where you draft and the quality of players available in any given draft year getting a "franchise" guy can be a problem.  Do you draft best player available or feel compelled to take a QB?  (There is a reason for the term "franchise QB")   It isn't just the Browns that do strange things with the position. Last year, the Eagles moves at the position seemed like a train wreck until the Vikings bailed them out.  Or, consider the Osweiler effect.  Is that so fresh that it scares teams away from "backup QBs" from the league's better teams?

Add to everything the fluidity of some coaching staffs and the possibility of fitting a guy into the wrong offensive system, not to mention the complexity of playing the position and it's no surprise that finding the right guy is tough. So, you have 32 teams each with different need at the position; security of coaching staff; team expectations; draft positions, other team needs, etc. 

Point being, someone will trade for Garappolo.   Price is the question.  The stated asking price seems too high to me.   If I'm the GM of an NFL needy team, early to mid second seems reasonable.  Patriots don't have a ton of leverage.  If they expect to play Brady for 2-3 years, you can't pay JG too.  It becomes a question of how many teams show interest to move that price.  It becomes a poker game of negotiations.  it will be fascinating to watch it play out.

 

[Riversco]

Looking at QBs who slide in the draft and make it, the most common reason is they actually had pretty much everything going for them but they were considered too short, or came from a system or family associated with busts.  Its happening to Kizer in a sense because getting benched is associated with being a bust but that's not the real truth.  I think there's more legitimate concerns about JGs game.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Let's look at Garoppolo's scouting report:  

Pinpoint accuracy, reads defenses very well, very very smart, Not a top 5 pick because he has small hands, is not very mobile, not really good throwing on the run, and is a little small at 6'2" for some teams.  

DeShone Kizer's scouting report:

Cannon arm, reads defenses very well, very smart, mobile, natural leader, People are dropping him out of the top 5 because his head coach is a moron and benched him in his senior year not for anything Kizer did, but because he promised the other QB he would get a chance to start.  Losing that job for a little bit drove teams away.

So, yeah, take Kizer....

Garoppolo's scouting report includes everything I noticed just by watching his limited NFL tape with deep ball accuracy issues and his pocket awareness were he doesn't feel pressure that I've listed. That and more are in Garoppolo's pre-draft scouting report and were the concerns that he had to overcome and he hasn't.


WEAKNESSES

 Is a tad undersized with small hands and short arms. Uses a three-quarters delivery that could lead to batted balls. Works heavily out of the shotgun in a spread offense, and footwork could require adjustment to working from under center. Does not always feel pressure in the pocket. Does not rip the deep out or drive the ball with high RPMs. Undershoots and often hangs the deep ball. Makes receivers work for the ball downfield, and deep accuracy could stand to improve. Makes a lot of simple, one-look reads and was not heavily challenged by consistent pressure or complex looks in the Ohio Valley Conference.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 2

BOTTOM LINE

 A decorated FCS passer, Garoppolo could excite quarterback coaches with his quick delivery, mental make-up and work habits, yet he still needs to prove he can fit the ball into tight windows and do more than carve up soft shells the way he regularly did on his way to a record-breaking performance in college. Possesses the physical tools to eventually earn an NFL starting job in a rhythm passing game with continued refinement but is more of a caretaker than a game changer and will require some patience adapting to the NFL game.
Kizer has issues with ball placement and making decisions.


WEAKNESSES

 Gets stuck on primary read missing out on early openers around field. May not have eyes or compact release to spot and hit flashing targets. Can be too reliant upon arm strength over mechanics. Wants open throwing window rather than operating with early anticipation. Can improve in leading receivers and throwing stationary targets open. Too hesitant. Gets caught in pump fake vortex at times. Quick to drop his eyes and halt progressions when pocket warms up. Inconsistent decision-maker. Showed dreadful lapses in judgement that lead to interceptions. Too willing to make off-balanced heaves. Benched against Stanford. Had at least one interception in 15 of his 23 starts. Will take a sack despite having ample time to read and throw.

SOURCES TELL US

 "I could tell you he should have gone back to school, but he also has some things you can work with. We need to find out how he will handle the board when our coaches put him through different reads. That's going to be huge for him. He's a bright kid, but I'm not sure he sees what he needs to see all time." - NFC midwest area scout

NFL COMPARISON

 Steve McNair

BOTTOM LINE

 The comparison to Steve McNair could raise eyebrows, but that is based primarily on size, mobility and arm strength. The aforementioned traits often land a quarterback in the first round, but Kizer's second-half drop in production combined with inconsistent decision-making and accuracy should be a speed bump for teams ready to jump in head-first on the traits. Kizer has the ability to become a quality starter, but has to improve his ball placement and field vision first.

 

[Tool]

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/516588-cleveland-browns-thread/?do=findComment&comment=19748856

Thanks for posting that, and to the original poster.  What's interesting about that analysis is that of the 4 of the 5 listed who "made it" from the 2nd and 3rd round, were picked in the first 5 picks of the 2nd round.  So if make the cut off from pick 6 to 35, there's a big difference between those picked higher and those picked after pick 35. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Thanks for posting that, and to the original poster.  What's interesting about that analysis is that of the 4 of the 5 listed who "made it" from the 2nd and 3rd round, were picked in the first 5 picks of the 2nd round.  So if make the cut off from pick 6 to 35, there's a big difference between those picked higher and those picked after pick 35. 

Makes sense since the teams at the middle/end of the first didnt need qbs.  They woulda gone higher.

Jg was passed over twice by qb needy teams.

 

[kyoun1e]

Lot of good data above. Based on these studies, if I was a GM I wouldn't want to be dishing out a first round pick for Jimmy G. 

The problem is that nobody is rational when making QB decisions. Nobody.

Some dope is going to overpay.

 

[bostonfred]

Makes sense since the teams at the middle/end of the first didnt need qbs.  They woulda gone higher.

Jg was passed over twice by qb needy teams.

Because he didn't fill their immediate QB need.  

JG was a wait and see prospect who didn't start playing qb until late, had never played in anything resembling a pro style offense and needed work on his skills.  The talent he had was good field vision, quick release and a willingness to throw into tight spots with good accuracy.  

Now that he's been taking snaps from under center, and learned how to read defenses in a pretty good film room, his skill matches his talent. We still don't know if that's good enough, but the reason he slid wasn't lack of talent.  It was lack of skill.  

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/753219-patriots-looking-for-a-1st-and-4th-for-garoppolo/?do=findComment&comment=19908193

 

[Boston]

Lot of good data above. Based on these studies, if I was a GM I wouldn't want to be dishing out a first round pick for Jimmy G. 

The problem is that nobody is rational when making QB decisions. Nobody.

Some dope is going to overpay.

A GM without a legit QB is a GM who's job security is going to be shaky...it is just a fact of life in today's NFL...whether it is reaching in the draft, free agency or a trade GM's will roll the dice with regard to this position when their other option is losing their job...you always have to keep that in-mind when it comes to QBs....

 

[Anarchy99]

Sure, taking a QB in the Top 5 and having it work out is ideal. But as already rehashed to death, that still doesn't always work. As for the axiom that taking a QB with draft pick 50 or later, that's worked out for teams in the past also . . .

HOFers:
Ken Stabler (Pick 52)
Dan Fouts (64)
Joe Montana (82)
Johnny Unitas (109)
George Blanda (119)
Tom Brady (199)
Bart Starr (200)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Warren Moon (Undrafted)

SB Winners:
Jeff Hostetler 59
Russell Wilson 75
Joe Theismann 99
Mark Rypien 146
Brad Johnson 227

MVPs:
Rich Gannon 98
Brian Sipe 330

SB Runners-Up:
Ken Anderson 67
Neil O'Donnell 70
Chris Chandler 76
Vince Ferragamo 91
Steve Grogan 116
Stan Humphries 159
Daryle Lamonica 168
Matt Hasselbeck 187
Joe Kapp 209
David Woodley 214
Jake Delhomme Undrafted

Every case and every player is different, so just looking at where JG was drafted should not exclude him from the list of starting QB worthy consideration. I am not suggesting that it is easy to find a decent QB outside of the first round, nor am I suggesting that Garoppolo is going to thrive. But unlikely QB's have emerged in the past (even if that happens on a liomited basis).

 

[Tool]

Sure, taking a QB in the Top 5 and having it work out is ideal. But as already rehashed to death, that still doesn't always work. As for the axiom that taking a QB with draft pick 50 or later, that's worked out for teams in the past also . . .

HOFers:
Ken Stabler (Pick 52)
Dan Fouts (64)
Joe Montana (82)
Johnny Unitas (109)
George Blanda (119)
Tom Brady (199)
Bart Starr (200)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Warren Moon (Undrafted)

SB Winners:
Jeff Hostetler 59
Russell Wilson 75
Joe Theismann 99
Mark Rypien 146
Brad Johnson 227

MVPs:
Rich Gannon 98
Brian Sipe 330

SB Runners-Up:
Ken Anderson 67
Neil O'Donnell 70
Chris Chandler 76
Vince Ferragamo 91
Steve Grogan 116
Stan Humphries 159
Daryle Lamonica 168
Matt Hasselbeck 187
Joe Kapp 209
David Woodley 214
Jake Delhomme Undrafted

Every case and every player is different, so just looking at where JG was drafted should not exclude him from the list of starting QB worthy consideration. I am not suggesting that it is easy to find a decent QB outside of the first round, nor am I suggesting that Garoppolo is going to thrive. But unlikely QB's have emerged in the past (even if that happens on a liomited basis).

Whether someone won or was a runner up in the super bowl has very limited relevance.

 

[Bossman]

Whether someone won or was a runner up in the super bowl has very limited relevance.

I agree.

Also, comparing Garoppolo to other QB's drafted around the same slot in the draft is irrelevant.

There is no flawless QB option available this year. JG is the best available of free agents or rookies.

Argue that fact if you want but NFL GM's know a lot more than we do as far as which QB can be the guy ... and to the dismay of Patriot haters, they are most likely buying in on JG at a premium price.

 

[flapgreen]

OK, I'M DYING to actually hear WHY this guy is a franchise quarterback.  WHY?

I've been asking for months and no one has made the case other than to say, 'teams are desperate for a quarterback' but they avoid making the case that Jimmy Garoppolo is a franchise QB.  Some even admit he's not but you say he is.  OK, WHY the F is this guy a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK?

You seem adamant he isn't. Why do you think he's NOT? 

 

[flapgreen]

A late 2nd round QB is comparable to the 2nd pick in the draft?  Um, ok, ummm.

No it is not.  Late 2nd round QB picks have terrible hit rates VS. top-2 picks.

Strong arm?

He has shown terrible deep ball accuracy in the NFL.  

Who cares about a strong arm if it is inaccurate when asked to make deep throws? 

Sounds like you're not looking for someone to make an argument that he's a franchise qb. You just want someone to give reasons so you can beat on your chest about how right you are. Which team do you scout for? 

 

[AngryPatriot]

No one knows. We don't know. He has looked good in a very short sample. He has played behind the best, in maybe the best system, under the best coach. I'd rather try a guy like this than a rookie, unless that rookie is off the charts on the measurable's, ala Andrew Luck. Of course it's still to be determined, but the smartly run teams, imo, should stop at nothing until a good QB is in place. In today's NFL, you are nothing until you have a good to great QB (although if you're an owner, you are super rich no matter what, and this surely factors in sometimes). I think they will trade him for a 1st and a 4th or thereabout.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

You seem adamant he isn't. Why do you think he's NOT? 

He had previously made a post or two about those exact things.

 

[ROCKET]

Can we all at least agree the perceived trade value of JG by those in the know within the league is pretty high and trending upward especially given the consensus of the upcoming qb crop of rookies and f.a.'s ? If nothing else I think timing is on the Pats side. My prediction is a trade for a 2017 2nd or 3rd round pick and a 2018 1st round pick. Most likely by a bottom feeding NFC team like the 49ers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

A late 2nd round QB is comparable to the 2nd pick in the draft?  Um, ok, ummm.

No it is not.  Late 2nd round QB picks have terrible hit rates VS. top-2 picks.

Strong arm?

He has shown terrible deep ball accuracy in the NFL.  

Who cares about a strong arm if it is inaccurate when asked to make deep throws? 

Putting aside whether or not Garropolo has shown "terrible" deep ball accuracy (the sample size would seem rather meaningless at this point) - that alone would not refute whether he has a strong arm or not. Many of the short to mid range passes (i.e. sideline out patterns) are where a strong arm is essential. Chad Pennington was a notorious weak armed QB but had one of the highest deep ball accuracy measures in the league - where his weak arm killed him (especially later in his career after multiple surgeries) was when corners were able to jump the route on his short and mid range out patterns and either break up the pass or intercept him.

 

[Bossman]

LOL, the three reasons you gave are. his draft position doesn't matter because YOU adjusted it based on, size, ARM STRENGTH, and college stats.

You didn't make a case, you avoided it just as everyone else here has because HE'S NOT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK and you can't make the case he is.  

College stats don't matter or it would be easy to take the top college stats guys and draft them him and watch the success in the NFL?  Size??  Really?  Come on.  Or the fact that YOU adjusted his draft status?  Then you list ARM STRENGTH?  Have you seen Jimmy-G attempt to throw a deep ball in the NFL?  I have and his deep ball accuracy sucks.  

How many "deep balls" have you seen JG throw in his NFL career? One?

You do realize that the Patriots system is dink and dunk. They typically aren't asking their QB to throw the ball 50 yards in the air. 

... and which of the speedy field stretching Patriot receivers were creating separation for JG to get them the ball on those long balls?

I don't consider Brady an accurate deep ball passer either. Hasn't put too much of a damper on his career.

JG as the starter on the Patriots makes them a 12-4 team. A rookie coming out of college starting for the Patriots makes them a 6-10 team. Doesn't matter how well the rookie throws the "deep" ball. 

Long term? Risk involved either way. I would think risk vs reward would have a team covet the more experienced, better known commodity with upside. JG has already proven that the stage isn't too big for him.

You could argue that a rookie could have a higher reward/ upside ... but rookies bust more often than not, therefore hold a very high risk.

 

[Hawkeye21]

How many "deep balls" have you seen JG throw in his NFL career? One?

You do realize that the Patriots system is dink and dunk. They typically aren't asking their QB to throw the ball 50 yards in the air. 

... and which of the speedy field stretching Patriot receivers were creating separation for JG to get them the ball on those long balls?

I don't consider Brady an accurate deep ball passer either. Hasn't put too much of a damper on his career.

JG as the starter on the Patriots makes them a 12-4 team. A rookie coming out of college starting for the Patriots makes them a 6-10 team. Doesn't matter how well the rookie throws the "deep" ball. 

Long term? Risk involved either way. I would think risk vs reward would have a team covet the more experienced, better known commodity with upside. JG has already proven that the stage isn't too big for him.

You could argue that a rookie could have a higher reward/ upside ... but rookies bust more often than not, therefore hold a very high risk.

As a Bears fan I see a lot of news about Jimmy as there is plenty of interest in him.  The Bears are one of the few teams that know a decent amount about him since they practiced together last preseason.  According to the reporters that were covering them at the time Jimmy has a decent deep ball, at least better than anyone on the Bear's current roster.

 

[daveR]

I agree.

Also, comparing Garoppolo to other QB's drafted around the same slot in the draft is irrelevant.

There is no flawless QB option available this year. JG is the best available of free agents or rookies.

Argue that fact if you want but NFL GM's know a lot more than we do as far as which QB can be the guy ... and to the dismay of Patriot haters, they are most likely buying in on JG at a premium price.

While I have no axe to grind regarding the Pats and agree with much of this, the part about NFL GMs buying in at a premium price sounds like unfounded homer speculation.  That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they get a #1 from somebody.  (Doubt it will be the Browns, though.  They value their picks very highly.)

 

[Bracie Smathers]

How many "deep balls" have you seen JG throw in his NFL career? One?

You do realize that the Patriots system is dink and dunk. They typically aren't asking their QB to throw the ball 50 yards in the air. 

... and which of the speedy field stretching Patriot receivers were creating separation for JG to get them the ball on those long balls?

I don't consider Brady an accurate deep ball passer either. Hasn't put too much of a damper on his career.

JG as the starter on the Patriots makes them a 12-4 team. A rookie coming out of college starting for the Patriots makes them a 6-10 team. Doesn't matter how well the rookie throws the "deep" ball. 

Long term? Risk involved either way. I would think risk vs reward would have a team covet the more experienced, better known commodity with upside. JG has already proven that the stage isn't too big for him.

You could argue that a rookie could have a higher reward/ upside ... but rookies bust more often than not, therefore hold a very high risk.

How many complete games has Jimmy had in his career?  

One.

How many deep throws did he attempt in his lone complete NFL game?

Three.

How many of those three deep throws did he connect?

ZERO.

And they were all off target where the WR had no chance.

In his other game that he didn't finish because he got injured on the one big hit that he took, he actually completed the one deep ball that he attempted but the WR had broken completely free of the DB and Jimmy had no pressure and was able to step up into the throw and wasn't rushed.

His deep ball accuracy SUCKS.  I don't need your permission to say so and it is his PRE-DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT that I didn't read before I made my own observation.

Also, the Patriots are a dink-and-dunk passing attack but they use that to set up the deep ball and Tom Brady leads the league in throwing the deep ball.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-the-nfls-best-quarterbacks-on-each-route-type-in-2016/


 

THE NFL’S BEST QUARTERBACKS ON EACH ROUTE TYPE IN 2016


Which quarterbacks were the most successful passing to each route type in 2016? Eliot Crist looks at the different types.


Go routes


In backyard football terms, go deep. The go route is designed to get behind the defense for the big play. The ability to take the top off the defense is a key component to any successful offensive attack. The go route is designed both for big yards before the catch and to give the receiver the ability to take it the distance after the catch. For this to work, the line must allow time for receivers to work their way down field. QBs will typical have a five- to seven-step drop back, and the aDOT of these routes is 28.53 yards.

Best QB on go routes (min. 10 targeted attempts): Tom Brady, New England Patriots

It is no coincidence that Chris Hogan was the most successful receiver on go routes when you look at how effective Tom Brady was throwing the route. Brady was PFF’s highest-graded QB on go routes, completing 20 of 48 passes for 660 yards, 6 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 119.8. Brady was second in QB rating, third in touchdowns, third in completions, and second in yards on the go route. Brady was eighth in completion percentage at 41 percent, but was fifth in adjusted completion percentage at 48 percent due to his receivers dropping three passes. He had great success on the go route versus the Cover 3, as 7 of his 13 passes resulted in either first downs or touchdowns, and one of his incompletions was on a miscommunication.

Guess who was the runner-up on throwing and CONNECTING on GO routes?

The 'other' Super Bowl QB, Matt Ryan.

Honorable mention: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan completed 13 of his 29 passes on go routes for 480 yards, 4 touchdowns and a league-high 131.1 passer rating. With an aDOT of 28.3 yards, he was right on par with the rest of the league. His season-long depth of target was on a 53-yard completion to Julio Jones, and 51 of the yards gained on the play were in the air. 6 of his 13 completions went for 40 or more yards and all of his touchdowns came on first or second down. Ryan had his most success versus zone coverages on the go route, completing 9 of 20 passes for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 16.45 yards per attempt.

The best QBs in the NFL who were successful throwing and CONNECTING, i.e. deep ball accuracy, played in the SB.  So I consider deep ball accuracy to be very important for any NFL QB.