Pickens To Dallas Ripple Effects (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Quick reaction from some of our Staff. Fluid situation for now.

• CeeDee Lamb -- No change, was going to be heavily targeted and an elite option regardless
• George Pickens -- 18% target share, 63% catch rate (improving from PIT years b/c Prescott is much more accurate), 14 yards per catch (lower than PIT years b/c he'll be used in different ways), 5 touchdowns (highly variable). That puts him in the low-end WR3 range for now.
• Jake Ferguson -- Remains the likely 3rd target with 16%-17% target share (no change, but he moves down one slot in my TE rankings b/c Freiermuth gets a slight bump)
• Pat Freiermuth -- Gets a target share bump and moves to TE12 in my projections (overtaking Ferguson)
• DK Metcalf -- No change, he'll be hyper-targeted and I think modeling him for less than 25% target share is hard to justify, unless Pittsburgh has more WR moves to make with veterans or another trade
• Calvin Austin -- Moves up to 13.5% target share pending any additional roster moves
• Robert Woods -- Moves up to 9% target share pending any additional moves
• Dak Prescott -- Floor is raised considerably as he's more insulated from a Lamb injury and has a legitimate third target in the passing game now. One of the higher risk-reward options as your QB2 based on current best-ball ADP
• PIT QB -- No clue, even if it's Rodgers I cannot see the Steelers QB projecting as a fantasy starter in anything other than 12-team superflex leagues.

 

[Bri]

I think it's time to wish Woods well and move on.
He was pretty questionable with the Rams.
Woods was not good with the Titans and there was so much opportunity to succeed.
Only 20 catches in Houston did not change my opinion.
He's 33.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

So.. Amari Cooper to the Steelers instead of the Cowboys then? Keenan Allen? Is there a team that needs a starting WR more?

 

[FarFromHome]

I'm not a Cowboys fan. I'm not a Dak fan. With those rbs and now Lamb and Pickens, with a million dollars on the line, I see maybe 6 QBs id take ahead of him

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think it's time to wish Woods well and move on.
He was pretty questionable with the Rams.
Woods was not good with the Titans and there was so much opportunity to succeed.
Only 20 catches in Houston did not change my opinion.
He's 33.

I think you could be right, @Bri. I missed on him as I kept thinking it was going to really happen.

 

[SHH]

Quick reaction from some of our Staff. Fluid situation for now.

• CeeDee Lamb -- No change, was going to be heavily targeted and an elite option regardless
• George Pickens -- 18% target share, 63% catch rate (improving from PIT years b/c Prescott is much more accurate), 14 yards per catch (lower than PIT years b/c he'll be used in different ways), 5 touchdowns (highly variable). That puts him in the low-end WR3 range for now.
• Jake Ferguson -- Remains the likely 3rd target with 16%-17% target share (no change, but he moves down one slot in my TE rankings b/c Freiermuth gets a slight bump)
• Pat Freiermuth -- Gets a target share bump and moves to TE12 in my projections (overtaking Ferguson)
• DK Metcalf -- No change, he'll be hyper-targeted and I think modeling him for less than 25% target share is hard to justify, unless Pittsburgh has more WR moves to make with veterans or another trade
• Calvin Austin -- Moves up to 13.5% target share pending any additional roster moves
• Robert Woods -- Moves up to 9% target share pending any additional moves
• Dak Prescott -- Floor is raised considerably as he's more insulated from a Lamb injury and has a legitimate third target in the passing game now. One of the higher risk-reward options as your QB2 based on current best-ball ADP
• PIT QB -- No clue, even if it's Rodgers I cannot see the Steelers QB projecting as a fantasy starter in anything other than 12-team superflex leagues.

I'd bet a million dollars that this benefits Roman Wilson more than it does Calvin Austin / Robert Woods. That little fella Austin is just too small to play significant snaps on offense! Robert Woods is a 33 year old journeyman. I think this move opens up Wilson to grab the #2 role by the horns.

That would be my big hot take. Other than that, love the post.

 

[menobrown]

Robert Woods -- Moves up to 9% target share pending any additional moves

I think you pretty much hit everything on the head but instead of this I'd have gone with opens up a chance for Roman Wilson if he can get his act together.

 

[menobrown]

I'd bet a million dollars that this benefits Roman Wilson more than it does Calvin Austin / Robert Woods

Was about a second or two late from posting something similar.

 

[SHH]

I think it's time to wish Woods well and move on.
He was pretty questionable with the Rams.
Woods was not good with the Titans and there was so much opportunity to succeed.
Only 20 catches in Houston did not change my opinion.
He's 33.

That would be rude!! He just signed there last week. I hope next time you start a new job, they give you more than a week. In retrospect, that signing was likely the smoke that made this move predictable if not, still a very unpredictable move.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...eportedly-agree-contract-2025-nfl-free-agency

 

[SHH]

I'd bet a million dollars that this benefits Roman Wilson more than it does Calvin Austin / Robert Woods

Was about a second or two late from posting something similar.

Some of us are more productive at work than others, lol! Speaking of which, I should really get these sales tax reports done...

 

[travdogg]

I would probably be less inclined to upgrade the Steelers WRs (and I would hesitate to assume DK sees at least 25%, as he's not someone who is versatile enough that you can't constantly double him) I am on board with the Muth bump.

I think I'd be a lot higher on Dak/Pickens. I'd call Pickens a low-end WR2 (I might rank him above DK) and I'd call Dak a low-end QB1. Barring injury, its hard for me to not put Dak around QB10.

 

[barackdhouse]

PIT QB -- No clue, even if it's Rodgers I cannot see the Steelers QB projecting as a fantasy starter in anything other than 12-team superflex leagues.

Lots of thoughts but the biggest thing that is still resonating to me is that the Rodgers watch just went from 2nd gear to hyperdrive. This question of when is he going to sign is gonna be the only thing media can talk about until he commits one way or the other. And that makes me want to puke in my mouth just a little bit.

This categorically made the Steelers less competitive though in the absence of more moves to follow. The idea of signing Rodgers is a win-now move not a one-year rental. If you're not making moves to win now then why are you even interested in Rodgers? And if you are then why move Pickens? It's a contradiction unless Pickens really is that big of a problem, but regardless their offense just became weaker and if I had access to either the Steelers or Rodgers as a sports journalist I would be asking them both WTF are they thinking? It doesn't make sense for either party anymore.

 

[Bri]

I don't know where Mingo fits in but Jerry and Cowboys staff have mentioned him on the radio.
I have not been pleased with Cowboys #2 WRs since Dak.
Brandon and what's his name that got hurt and...I'm always fairly unimpressed for FF.

This isn't even to say they don't have some good games, but I can't predict them well enough to even start them and get those stats. It wasn't CeeDee has a top CB type predictable.

Dak likes the TE. He's more of a classic QB in this regard.

He has a lot of confidence in forcing it to CeeDee and the TE if he has to.

I like the Jalens. Tolbert popped up last year and I wouldn't be surprised if Brooks makes an impression this camp.

Turpin is from an old Disney movie where cartoons suddenly come to be real life people. He is playing and he is getting 5-10 snaps where he is fairly likely to get the ball. Chris Berman won't be announcing the game but you will somehow hear his whoop noises anyway. One radio host calls him a windup toy and I'm fine with that description too. They are not winding him up for no reason. They want to use their toy.

I don't know that Pickens fits in and I'm leery that he will be unhappy.
It's a good move. Dak could light it up with excellent starters and useful backups. I'll tell ya though, he's less of a spread it around guy and more force it to CeeDee and the TE.

It's gotta be about Dak improving his own game if Pickens is going to succeed

 

[Bri]

I think it's time to wish Woods well and move on.
He was pretty questionable with the Rams.
Woods was not good with the Titans and there was so much opportunity to succeed.
Only 20 catches in Houston did not change my opinion.
He's 33.

That would be rude!! He just signed there last week. I hope next time you start a new job, they give you more than a week. In retrospect, that signing was likely the smoke that made this move predictable if not, still a very unpredictable move.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...eportedly-agree-contract-2025-nfl-free-agency

True true
It's the NFL world though and not real life or regular society

 

[Buckna]

So.. Amari Cooper to the Steelers instead of the Cowboys then? Keenan Allen? Is there a team that needs a starting WR more?

Lots of old Vet guys out there they could look at. The two you mentioned, Gabe Davis or Chark for a seem stretcher, Tyler Boyd, Lazard if Rodgers signs...

 

[Bri]

The Steelers would not be unhappy with Henry carrying it 500 times as two and three TEs consistently win at the LOS and AJB is sprinkled in for big boy catch n runs during which the DBs simply don't seem big enough or fast enough.

I've been saying and I'm still thinking Arthur is going to use his Titans offense that got him recognized around the league and got him a HC job.

Kaleb models his game against Henry.
They are loaded at TE. They don't have 90 catch guys but they're all matchup problem tough players that teams don't want to cover all day.
DKs career is that he's a big boy and good luck matching his strength or speed.

This offense was built for Marcus and a smush of prior offenses so that he didn't have to struggle with learning a third or fourth offense and get confused with different reads and styles. Tannehill was great at it and he was pretty questionable in Miami and not that good after Arthur either.

Arthur creates the mismatch by lining up players in different spots or shifting them. The shifts presnap tell the QB what to look for. This won't help any QB get MVP or be much for FF but it does make a QBs job simpler.

I think this is where they're going. If so, they won't care who the QB is, but that the QB will make the right read and ...get them another set of downs to again win the LOS and control the clock. The rookie seems fairly well thought out so maybe him. I would guess this is one reason Rodgers wasn't enthused about going. They need a smart QB. That's all.

The Titans didn't have a good defense then. It was fine but not noteworthy. They were the top AFC team but because the defense was so well rested. This will speak to Tomlin too.

People can bark about Arthur, but Steelers fans will not complain if the well rested D plays great and Kaleb runs for 1200 yards as they win the LOS often.

Their off-season moves don't seem to indicate I'm wrong but instead that it's happening.

Maybe last year's rookie WR stirs up a better passing attack. Maybe it's too much to ask of Kaleb. I could definitely be wrong with this prediction but it's holding true and we're closer n closer to camp.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Warren has caught 127 passes since he entered the NFL
99 the past 2 seasons, I would think that his touches are about to increase even with the arrival of KJ
I do not see an RBBC when it comes to rushing attempts, think that will be squarely in favor of KJ as long as he's healthy, 250-275+ carries, 60/40 split, etc
Where I see Warren at least being valuable is in the passing game.

 

[squistion]

Any thoughts on Jalen Tolbert in Dallas?

I own him in 3 Dynasty PPR Leagues and wondering if I should hold him or move on to anothr player.

 

[ffmail4me]

I also think Warren (and to a lesser extent Kaleb Johnson) should benefit in the passing game as well.

 

[travdogg]

I don't know where Mingo fits in but Jerry and Cowboys staff have mentioned him on the radio.
I have not been pleased with Cowboys #2 WRs since Dak.
Brandon and what's his name that got hurt and...I'm always fairly unimpressed for FF.

This isn't even to say they don't have some good games, but I can't predict them well enough to even start them and get those stats. It wasn't CeeDee has a top CB type predictable.

Dak likes the TE. He's more of a classic QB in this regard.

He has a lot of confidence in forcing it to CeeDee and the TE if he has to.

I like the Jalens. Tolbert popped up last year and I wouldn't be surprised if Brooks makes an impression this camp.

Turpin is from an old Disney movie where cartoons suddenly come to be real life people. He is playing and he is getting 5-10 snaps where he is fairly likely to get the ball. Chris Berman won't be announcing the game but you will somehow hear his whoop noises anyway. One radio host calls him a windup toy and I'm fine with that description too. They are not winding him up for no reason. They want to use their toy.

I don't know that Pickens fits in and I'm leery that he will be unhappy.
It's a good move. Dak could light it up with excellent starters and useful backups. I'll tell ya though, he's less of a spread it around guy and more force it to CeeDee and the TE.

It's gotta be about Dak improving his own game if Pickens is going to succeed

I feel like a lot of the talking up of those guys (Mingo, Brooks, Turpin, even Tolbert) was because they didn't have Pickens. I think 70-1000-7 is a very reasonable expectation for Pickens. I think he'll be the #2 option in the offense, and that they'll make sure he's not hurting for looks. I'd set the over/under on 120 targets. I would bet Pickens has more yards/TDs than the TE position combines for.

I think Mingo is gonna be fighting to be active on gamedays. Him and Brooks are fighting for the last spot, as Turpin will have some gadget snaps, and obviously be a valued returner. Wouldn't surprise me if Turpin got some RB snaps.

I think Dak is being really underrated. He's only a season removed from arguably being the best passer in the NFL. He led 2023 in TD passes, while being 3rd in yards, and 2nd in Competition %. I think he can support a multiple 1,000-yard WRs, he's done it before.

Warren has caught 127 passes since he entered the NFL
99 the past 2 seasons, I would think that his touches are about to increase even with the arrival of KJ
I do not see an RBBC when it comes to rushing attempts, think that will be squarely in favor of KJ as long as he's healthy, 250-275+ carries, 60/40 split, etc
Where I see Warren at least being valuable is in the passing game.

I mostly agree with this, though maybe a little less of a carry workload for Kaleb Johnson. I mean, Derrick Henry is the only RB in the NFL to hit 275 carries each of the last 2 years. If Johnson gets close to that workload, it'd be basically a 1-1 swap with Najee, and that feels more like a ceiling than an expectation to me. I think it could go more that way as the season rolls on, but I think Warren easily sees a career high in carries.

I 100% agree that Warren will be heavily featured in the pass game, and I think he easily tops 200 touches. I think both he and Kaleb will be solid RB3s.

Something like:
Kaleb 225 carries, 30 catches, GL work
Warren 175 carries, 60 catches

 

[TheWinz]

Dak's fantasy finishes (PPG for QB's with at least 10 starts)
2016 - QB7
2017 - QB11
2018 - QB12
2019 - QB3
2020 - Played only 5 games; was QB3 at time of injury
2021 - QB8
2022 - QB15
2023 - QB4
2024 - Played only 8 games; was QB19 at time of injury

 

[steelcityman]

Warren has caught 127 passes since he entered the NFL
99 the past 2 seasons, I would think that his touches are about to increase even with the arrival of KJ
I do not see an RBBC when it comes to rushing attempts, think that will be squarely in favor of KJ as long as he's healthy, 250-275+ carries, 60/40 split, etc
Where I see Warren at least being valuable is in the passing game.

he had half his recps in one year(61 of them) in 2023. Also his best rushing season. IDK where he stands with the franchise, they really didnt try to resign him to any extension. He is valuable in the passing game, but I dont see any RB, in this offense, producing one 55+ catch RB, esp a part-timer.
Who even knows who the QB will be, and what old decrepit WRs they are bringing in.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Any thoughts on Jalen Tolbert in Dallas?

I own him in 3 Dynasty PPR Leagues and wondering if I should hold him or move on to anothr player.

He will probly catch 5-6 tds and be unstartable in less than a 16 team league if Lamb and Pickens are healthy imo

 

[KellysHeroes]

Quick reaction from some of our Staff. Fluid situation for now.

• CeeDee Lamb -- No change, was going to be heavily targeted and an elite option regardless
• George Pickens -- 18% target share, 63% catch rate (improving from PIT years b/c Prescott is much more accurate), 14 yards per catch (lower than PIT years b/c he'll be used in different ways), 5 touchdowns (highly variable). That puts him in the low-end WR3 range for now.
• Jake Ferguson -- Remains the likely 3rd target with 16%-17% target share (no change, but he moves down one slot in my TE rankings b/c Freiermuth gets a slight bump)
• Pat Freiermuth -- Gets a target share bump and moves to TE12 in my projections (overtaking Ferguson)
• DK Metcalf -- No change, he'll be hyper-targeted and I think modeling him for less than 25% target share is hard to justify, unless Pittsburgh has more WR moves to make with veterans or another trade
• Calvin Austin -- Moves up to 13.5% target share pending any additional roster moves
• Robert Woods -- Moves up to 9% target share pending any additional moves
• Dak Prescott -- Floor is raised considerably as he's more insulated from a Lamb injury and has a legitimate third target in the passing game now. One of the higher risk-reward options as your QB2 based on current best-ball ADP
• PIT QB -- No clue, even if it's Rodgers I cannot see the Steelers QB projecting as a fantasy starter in anything other than 12-team superflex leagues.

and Tolbert's development takes a backseat... what does Dallas have against this kid? He looked like he was becoming a great 2nd option to CB but Dallas is just tripping over themselves to replace him 1st with Mingo (LOL!!) and now with Pickens. Hope Tolbert gets out of there and signs somewhere else and gets a chance to shine

 

[SHH]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

 

[SHH]

Lamb is 26 and Pickens is 24. If they keep these two together, they could be trouble for the foreseeable future.

 

[-OZ-]

I'd bet a million dollars that this benefits Roman Wilson

Roman gonna light it up like a candle.

 

[-OZ-]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

Ceedee is awesome of course but I’m not sure this group is a top 5.

 

[SHH]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

Ceedee is awesome of course but I’m not sure this group is a top 5.

Interesting. I'd say Cincinnati are probably the closest with Chase and Higgins. Lamb and Chase are at worst a wash, but I could see people making arguments either way. I think I like Pickens more than Higgins but I could see how people might have that one flip flopped too.

I could see an argument for Miami, but Hill is getting older and the drop off plus his attitude could make that an abrupt finish. Philadelphia I could see in the conversation as well. Jaguars could be in contention if Hunter ends up being worthy of the #2 overall pick on offense. For my money, I think the Cowboys have the best WR room in the league. Tolbert as your depth piece, very nice.

 

[TheWinz]

DAL currently has 3 Jalen's in their WR corps

 

[rockaction]

Lazard to the Steelers? LOL

Aaron Rodgers’ ex-Jets teammate Allen Lazard ‘in play’ for Steelers after George Pickens blockbuster

Could the Steelers fill that now-vacant spot in their wide receivers room with a player near and dear to Aaron Rodgers’ heart?

nypost.com

Many such reports.

 

[-OZ-]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

Ceedee is awesome of course but I’m not sure this group is a top 5.

Interesting. I'd say Cincinnati are probably the closest with Chase and Higgins. Lamb and Chase are at worst a wash, but I could see people making arguments either way. I think I like Pickens more than Higgins but I could see how people might have that one flip flopped too.

I could see an argument for Miami, but Hill is getting older and the drop off plus his attitude could make that an abrupt finish. Philadelphia I could see in the conversation as well. Jaguars could be in contention if Hunter ends up being worthy of the #2 overall pick on offense. For my money, I think the Cowboys have the best WR room in the league. Tolbert as your depth piece, very nice.

Chase and Higgins
Jefferson and Addison
Sun god and Jameson
AJ and smith
Lamb and Pickens

Not necessarily in that order, but I don’t the Dallas duo as being automatically better than the other 4.

If you changed the argument to receiving group (TE included) I don’t think Dallas is close to the lions, Vikings or eagles.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

I try to not be a turd in the punchbowl kinda guy but Pickens and Moss are not remotely close in terms of skill level. What besides having a legit WR2 on the team gives you this level of optimism for the Cowboys?

 

[SHH]

Dak might throw for 40 TD next year. This does kind of give me Randy Moss to New England super team vibes, where you can argue this instantly becomes the best WR duo in the entire league. George Pickens will not see single coverage or the opposing team's best corner ALL SEASON.

In fact, Pickens may end up being more productive than CeeDee on a game-by-game basis. I'd love to be a Cowboys fan right now, this is exciting.

I try to not be a turd in the punchbowl kinda guy but Pickens and Moss are not remotely close in terms of skill level. What besides having a legit WR2 on the team gives you this level of optimism for the Cowboys?

George Pickens single covered on 100% of snaps gets me pretty excited. This can only help CeeDee's production too.

He doesn't need to be as good as Moss, that's CeeDee Lamb's responsibility.


Pickens just needs to be as good as Welker.

 

[-OZ-]

Pickens just needs to be as good as Welker.

Spoiler alert - he isn’t.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just thinking out loud . . . are we sure Pickens will end up better off as the #2 guy in DAL?

Recent numbers for second receivers in DAL (when they had one that stayed healthy):

Cooks 81-54-657-8
Cooper 104-865-6
Lamb 111-74-935-5
Gallup 113-66-1107-6
Dez 96-50-796-8

If Pickens had played every game the past 3 years, he would have averaged 104-62-1006-4. Would people predict over or under on those totals?

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Lamb is a top 3 WR in the league, that's not in question. It's him, Jefferson and Chase for me.

Pickens though? I would personally take at least 20 guys ahead of him.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Just thinking out loud . . . are we sure Pickens will end up better off as the #2 guy in DAL?

Recent numbers for second receivers in DAL (when they had one that stayed healthy):

Cooks 81-54-657-8
Cooper 104-865-6
Lamb 111-74-935-5
Gallup 113-66-1107-6
Dez 96-50-796-8

If Pickens had played every game the past 3 years, he would have averaged 104-62-1006-4. Would people predict over or under on those totals?

I think the addition of Metcalf would have really cut back on his opportunities there.

Dallas two years ago was at (league leading) 265 yards per game, down to 10th (227) last year.
Pittsburg last year was 26th at 195. Atlanta 2023 207 and 2022 with 158.5 Yeesh.

And still no QB in Pittsburgh. Though I will say that Rodgers stat padding ways on the goal line would have possibly tilted some endzone work toward Pickens.
I think it's fair to project a little bit of a bounceback for Dallas passing game. They're continuing to invest in the OL.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just thinking out loud . . . are we sure Pickens will end up better off as the #2 guy in DAL?

Recent numbers for second receivers in DAL (when they had one that stayed healthy):

Cooks 81-54-657-8
Cooper 104-865-6
Lamb 111-74-935-5
Gallup 113-66-1107-6
Dez 96-50-796-8

If Pickens had played every game the past 3 years, he would have averaged 104-62-1006-4. Would people predict over or under on those totals?

I think the addition of Metcalf would have really cut back on his opportunities there.

Dallas two years ago was at (league leading) 265 yards per game, down to 10th (227) last year.
Pittsburg last year was 26th at 195. Atlanta 2023 207 and 2022 with 158.5 Yeesh.

And still no QB in Pittsburgh. Though I will say that Rodgers stat padding ways on the goal line would have possibly tilted some endzone work toward Pickens.
I think it's fair to project a little bit of a bounceback for Dallas passing game. They're continuing to invest in the OL.

Good info for sure, but would you predict Pickens to have totals above 104 targets with 62-1006-4 in DAL as the second option behind Lamb?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Quick reaction from some of our Staff. Fluid situation for now.

• CeeDee Lamb -- No change, was going to be heavily targeted and an elite option regardless
• George Pickens -- 18% target share, 63% catch rate (improving from PIT years b/c Prescott is much more accurate), 14 yards per catch (lower than PIT years b/c he'll be used in different ways), 5 touchdowns (highly variable). That puts him in the low-end WR3 range for now.
• Jake Ferguson -- Remains the likely 3rd target with 16%-17% target share (no change, but he moves down one slot in my TE rankings b/c Freiermuth gets a slight bump)
• Pat Freiermuth -- Gets a target share bump and moves to TE12 in my projections (overtaking Ferguson)
• DK Metcalf -- No change, he'll be hyper-targeted and I think modeling him for less than 25% target share is hard to justify, unless Pittsburgh has more WR moves to make with veterans or another trade
• Calvin Austin -- Moves up to 13.5% target share pending any additional roster moves
• Robert Woods -- Moves up to 9% target share pending any additional moves
• Dak Prescott -- Floor is raised considerably as he's more insulated from a Lamb injury and has a legitimate third target in the passing game now. One of the higher risk-reward options as your QB2 based on current best-ball ADP
• PIT QB -- No clue, even if it's Rodgers I cannot see the Steelers QB projecting as a fantasy starter in anything other than 12-team superflex leagues.

and Tolbert's development takes a backseat... what does Dallas have against this kid? He looked like he was becoming a great 2nd option to CB but Dallas is just tripping over themselves to replace him 1st with Mingo (LOL!!) and now with Pickens. Hope Tolbert gets out of there and signs somewhere else and gets a chance to shine

I don’t get it either

 

[TheWinz]

Just thinking out loud . . . are we sure Pickens will end up better off as the #2 guy in DAL?

Recent numbers for second receivers in DAL (when they had one that stayed healthy):

Cooks 81-54-657-8
Cooper 104-865-6
Lamb 111-74-935-5
Gallup 113-66-1107-6
Dez 96-50-796-8

If Pickens had played every game the past 3 years, he would have averaged 104-62-1006-4. Would people predict over or under on those totals?

I think the addition of Metcalf would have really cut back on his opportunities there.

Dallas two years ago was at (league leading) 265 yards per game, down to 10th (227) last year.
Pittsburg last year was 26th at 195. Atlanta 2023 207 and 2022 with 158.5 Yeesh.

And still no QB in Pittsburgh. Though I will say that Rodgers stat padding ways on the goal line would have possibly tilted some endzone work toward Pickens.
I think it's fair to project a little bit of a bounceback for Dallas passing game. They're continuing to invest in the OL.

Good info for sure, but would you predict Pickens to have totals above 104 targets with 62-1006-4 in DAL as the second option behind Lamb?

Of your numbers, I would say 62 and 4 are very doable, with 1K being the toughest to accomplish

 

[SHH]

Just thinking out loud . . . are we sure Pickens will end up better off as the #2 guy in DAL?

Recent numbers for second receivers in DAL (when they had one that stayed healthy):

Cooks 81-54-657-8
Cooper 104-865-6
Lamb 111-74-935-5
Gallup 113-66-1107-6
Dez 96-50-796-8

If Pickens had played every game the past 3 years, he would have averaged 104-62-1006-4. Would people predict over or under on those totals?

I think the addition of Metcalf would have really cut back on his opportunities there.

Dallas two years ago was at (league leading) 265 yards per game, down to 10th (227) last year.
Pittsburg last year was 26th at 195. Atlanta 2023 207 and 2022 with 158.5 Yeesh.

And still no QB in Pittsburgh. Though I will say that Rodgers stat padding ways on the goal line would have possibly tilted some endzone work toward Pickens.
I think it's fair to project a little bit of a bounceback for Dallas passing game. They're continuing to invest in the OL.

Good info for sure, but would you predict Pickens to have totals above 104 targets with 62-1006-4 in DAL as the second option behind Lamb?

Of your numbers, I would say 62 and 4 are very doable, with 1K being the toughest to accomplish

Which is what interesting, because if he can double his TDs but say his production drops to 52 / 838 / 8 TD.


Then it's actually a lateral move. Let alone if he can score more TD and improve his overall production.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Jeremy Fowler

https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1920146957542322321

On Pittsburgh's offense, post-Pickens trade:

-#Steelers remain in contact with Aaron Rodgers and are hopeful that he'll be a Steeler. But, as of now, no hard update.

-Team counting on Roman Wilson Year 2 jump. This offseason he looks like a different player than from his injury riddled rookie campaign.

-Pittsburgh now positioned for three third-round picks in 2026, which they can use for potential WR trade

 

[greenmountaingoat]

snip

Good info for sure, but would you predict Pickens to have totals above 104 targets with 62-1006-4 in DAL as the second option behind Lamb?

I guess (no sarcasm intended) I'm not sure what we're arguing. I'm trying to compare 2025 Pickens in Pittsburgh (with Metcalf) vs 2025 Pickens in Dallas.

As for the question of what my guess is for Pickens this year in Dallas? For sure like around 100 targets. Ferguson had 102 in 2023 with Cooks 81. Tolbert had 79 last year (Ferguson had 86 in 14 games) . I'm not a Pickens guy but he's definitely a notch above 2024 Tolbert and 2023 Cooks in my estimation. There's no reason to get back to Lamb getting 180 targets.

What Pickens does if he's getting 4 targets a game and Ferguson gets 8- that's more where I see a downside in Pickens. He seems mercurial. Could be wrong but that's the downside risk for Dallas IMO.

 

[Anarchy99]

snip

Good info for sure, but would you predict Pickens to have totals above 104 targets with 62-1006-4 in DAL as the second option behind Lamb?

I guess (no sarcasm intended) I'm not sure what we're arguing. I'm trying to compare 2025 Pickens in Pittsburgh (with Metcalf) vs 2025 Pickens in Dallas.

As for the question of what my guess is for Pickens this year in Dallas? For sure like around 100 targets. Ferguson had 102 in 2023 with Cooks 81. Tolbert had 79 last year (Ferguson had 86 in 14 games) . I'm not a Pickens guy but he's definitely a notch above 2024 Tolbert and 2023 Cooks in my estimation. There's no reason to get back to Lamb getting 180 targets.

What Pickens does if he's getting 4 targets a game and Ferguson gets 8- that's more where I see a downside in Pickens. He seems mercurial. Could be wrong but that's the downside risk for Dallas IMO.

I saw some comments that seemed to suggest Pickens’ numbers would be better than what we’ve seen so far with him moving to DAL. I was not considering how he would do in PIT this year.

 

[Mister CIA]

Any thoughts on Jalen Tolbert in Dallas?

I own him in 3 Dynasty PPR Leagues and wondering if I should hold him or move on to anothr player.

I like Jalen, but this isn't good. Will hold for a while, mainly hoping he gets traded.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Rich is confused

 

[Snotbubbles]

I don't see the long-term play for Dallas here. They've mismanaged the cap so poorly last season that the ripple effects are going to be felt especially when they have to resign Parsons and now Pickens. They'll probably have upwards of 60% of their cap tied up in 4 players. NFL teams with no depth don't stand a chance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't see the long-term play for Dallas here. They've mismanaged the cap so poorly last season that the ripple effects are going to be felt especially when they have to resign Parsons and now Pickens. They'll probably have upwards of 60% of their cap tied up in 4 players. NFL teams with no depth don't stand a chance.

I don’t think Pickens is in their future plans. If he were they’d have extended him immediately IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ted Nguyen video showing how Pickens runs routes when he’s not the primary target. Yikes.