Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The Chargers absolutely could have won this game.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
PreGame - Chargers V Jets (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter DanFouts
- Start date
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Not your best work, GB.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Rivers:40 pass attempts298 passing yards2 sacks15 sack yards lost2 INT1 TD298 -15 -2*45 +1*20 = 213 adjusted net yards42 pass plays= 5.1 ANY/A
:IBTL: 
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Yes it was. Because they won does not negate that fact. The Jets were not favored today by any stretch.Not an upset.I'm taking the Jets today, butat this guy.When (if) a lucky-to-be 9 - 7 team beats a 13 - 3 team, on an 11-game win streak plays, and on the ROAD no less, with a rookie QB, that is the very definition of an upset. Just because YOU think the Jets will win, and whether or not they do, does not make you right about them not being the underdog here. The betting public, as well, shows that it would be an upset.
Stop trying to be so cute, Lhucks.
Rovers
Footballguy
In Ryan's post game presser, he apologized to Jets fans for going soft in the 4th quarter because he decided to play clock management with a lead. Transalation: We wanted to eat clock, so we let them dink and dunk down the field on purpose. We went with a prevent, knowing they would score, but would run out of time. If we kept up our blitzing, they would have only put up 7 points. We were more worried about the big play. Sorry.
Fixed.
F;ing Kaeding, f'ing Jackson's drops.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Better work than yours. The Jets defense wasn't that dominant. Any playoff team with a semi-clutch kicker and decent coach would have secured a victory yesterday.
TLEF316
Footballguy
if ifs and buts were candy and nuts.....
BassNBrew
Footballguy
You can take the punk out of Raleigh, but you can't take coming up just short in big game games out of the punk. I understand that Keading and Norv, but a big time QB needs to show some composure when the rest of the team isn't.why you're not more impressed by Rivers?I hate to apologize for QB's, but that guy's been MONEY every time I ever remember the game being on the line?
MCguidance
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Congrats Jets fans. Very well played game.
As a Charger fan it's difficult to find much fault in Kaeding over the years, but he certainly finds some inopportune times to miss. I'm sure everything will get analyzed and over analyzed to death over this game but two things stand out to me. One of the best kickers in the game missed a couple of easy ones(again). The New York Jets are a very team.
I thought the Jets fans were a bit brash in this thread and the number of SD targets would win the day but in the end the Jets certainly backed up all the talk. Good luck vs Indy, I think you have a very good chance in that game as well.
As a Charger fan it's difficult to find much fault in Kaeding over the years, but he certainly finds some inopportune times to miss. I'm sure everything will get analyzed and over analyzed to death over this game but two things stand out to me. One of the best kickers in the game missed a couple of easy ones(again). The New York Jets are a very team.
I thought the Jets fans were a bit brash in this thread and the number of SD targets would win the day but in the end the Jets certainly backed up all the talk. Good luck vs Indy, I think you have a very good chance in that game as well.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm sure the two interceptions had nothing to do with the loss. Especially the one from his own endzone.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Not an upset.I'm taking the Jets today, butat this guy.When (if) a lucky-to-be 9 - 7 team beats a 13 - 3 team, on an 11-game win streak plays, and on the ROAD no less, with a rookie QB, that is the very definition of an upset. Just because YOU think the Jets will win, and whether or not they do, does not make you right about them not being the underdog here. The betting public, as well, shows that it would be an upset.Stop trying to be so cute, Lhucks.
Any way you cut it, when the other team is favored by 2 scores, it's an upset.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Maybe they should switch jobs. Can Kaeding catch? We already know that Jackson can kick.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Still think I'm overemphasizing statistical analysis?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Jets won by 3 (although it was really a 10 point win that became a late 3 point win).Still, records is close games is a stat with almost no predictive success. I doubt this game will be remembered for long, and we'll go through this again next year. But if a team is 5-1 in close games, they're probably overrated, and if a team is 0-5 in close games, they're probably underrated. This was true this year, last year, and every other year in NFL history.Records in non-close games:Chargers 8-2Keep in mind the Jets got to add +37 of that to their total by beating a Bengals team that was laying down in week 17 (and don't give me the "they played their starters and tried to win" argument...their game plan was as vanilla as it gets...that was obvious).Here are a couple of numbers that surpised me. Point differential.
SD- 134
NYJ- 112
The Jets are built to win in low scoring games with defense and ball control. SD puts up what, 30 PPG? But SD beats the Jets in point differntial by only 22 points over 16 games. Less than an average of 2 PPG. Now consider that SD won more games than NY.
Yeah, I think predicting a 2 TD+ margin of victory by SD is homer schtick. Sure do.
But if this game is close, the advantage clearly goes to the Chargers. In games decided by 5 points or less:
Chargers 5-1
Jets 0-5
Factor in the fact that Rivers is about as clutch as clutch gets at the end of games combined with the Jets defense tendency to collapse at the end of close games, and the Chargers have a huge advantage if this goes down to the wire.
Jets 10-2, or 8-2 if you want to throw out both regular season games against Indy and Cincy
In fact, the only difference between these two teams is their record in close games. So how important is that?
I looked at the NFL over the last fifteen seasons and saw how the playoff teams did in close games during the regular season. The best team was Pittsburgh 2004, who with a rookie Roethlisberger, went 6-0 in close games. The '08 Panthers and '00 Giants went 5-0 in close games, while the '08 Colts, '04 Falcons, '03 Panthers, '98 Cardinals, '96 Broncos and '95 Eagles all were five games over .500 in close games, too.
The '09 Jets are the worst team in the study in close games at 0-5. The '99 Cowboys went 0-4, and they were the only team four games under .500 that made the playoffs. The '08 Ravens, '08 Eagles, '92 Eagles, '08 Chargers and '95 49ers were three games under .500.
So no matchup will be as disparate as the Jets and Chargers this wekeend, where SD will be 4.5 games ahead of the Jets in close games (5-1 to 0.5); the closest matchup? Last year, SD vs. Indy, where the Colts were five games over .500 and the Chargers were three games under. SD won.
There have been 19 matchups between teams separated by 2.5 games (or 5 games over .500); the "good in close games" teams went 9-10. When the "good in close games" team was home, they went 8-5, although there we may have questions of whether we're comparing like teams in terms of ability.
Either way, I think the fact that the Chargers record in close games is close to meaningless, just like the Jets record in close games is close to meaningless. And I say this as a guy who plays with statistics a lot, not as a Jets fan. Once you throw out the close games, the Jets have, at worst, the same record as the Chargers. As a Jets fan, I think the Jets will win.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Congrats to the Jets. They played a great game, the defense really kept them in it in the first half when it could have gone sideways. Very well played. Lots of determination, smarts, and heart was on display by the team in Green. Good luck against the Colts.
Another sucky off season for us
Another sucky off season for us
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Yes. Always.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I am not gonna make excuses, but I will just say that if I had known that the Chargers would be so undisciplined, and that Nate Kaeding was gonna gag repeatedly, I wouldn't have predicted that the Chargers were more likely to win a close game. I mean, let's face it, the Jets defense was in collapse mode late, like so many other games this year, but Kaeding, SD's terrible special teams on the recovery attempt of the onside kick, and the Jets running game bailed them out.
Last edited by a moderator:
MCguidance
Footballguy
So you're saying the Jets were more prepared, more disciplined, stuck to their game plan and won the game? I agree, they were the better team, pretty simple.I am not gonna make excuses, but I will just say that if I had known that the Chargers would be so undisciplined, and that Nate Kaeding was gonna gag repeatedly, I wouldn't have predicted that the Chargers were more likely to win a close game. I mean, let's face it, the Jets defense was in collapse mode late, like so many other games this year, but Kaeding, SD's terrible special teams on the recovery attempt of the onside kick, and the Jets running game bailed them out.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I didn't say that, but I would say that. The Jets, despite trailing for most of the game, took the will out of the Chargers by keeping it low scoring. When the Jets made it 7-3 in the 3rd quarter and then the Chargers did nothing on their next drive, I turned to my cousin and said, "The Jets are gonna win this game; the Chargers look completely out of synch now, and the Jets will wear them down." As someone who really didn't have a rooting interest, that was easy to see from an objective eye.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I wonder what the odds were that the most accurate FG kicker in NFL history, who had made 69 in a row from 40 yards or less, would go 0-2 from that range? Game was closer than I thought; the Chargers played their 2nd worst game of the season. Some of that had to do with the Jets defense. Some of it didn't.
jonessed
Footballguy
Come on, the only accurate predictive model of a sporting even I have ever seen (predict wins/losses with spread) was done by a PhD in statistics from MIT using a neural network to predict the NCAA basketball tournament. He scrubbed hundreds of variables and tweaked it over a two year period. Amazingly, in the end, he lost money because he backed his gut over his model when Gonzaga beat Standord (he had an MBA from Stanford). Even he claimed an incredible amount of luck and pointed out that he should not have used it on single games. If I recall his goal was to bet evenly on all the games, but unfortunately only professionals can take the fan out of sports predictions. He went to work for a hedge fund shortly thereafter so I don't know what success he had after that year.Saying that something like this: Jets rush O >>>>>> Chargers rush OJets rush D >>>>> Chargers rush DJets pass D >>>>>>> Chargers pass DChargers pass O >>>>>>>>> Jets pass OIs predictive of a single binary event as complex as a sports game is like a 2 year old flinging poo and giggling when he finds a face in it.I certainly respect what footballguys does with their projections and you do quite well with most of your analyses here. It's cool, it's fun, and making money off of a hobby is everybody's dream. However, a single sporting event upset (I would consider an outcome against a +9 Vegas line an upset even though you don't) is not something you can accurately predict. At least not statistically or on a consistent basis.I certainly wish the Jets the best of luck, they matched up well and played a good game. The Chargers have a history of collapsing in the playoffs and football games are difficult to predict so I generally stay away from pre-game outcome based banter. I know I harrassed you a bit in the game thread, but regardless of the outcome your comments were pretty funny (yes, even now). You were obviously excited and in my experience being the underdog in those threads is generally more fun. I was more poking fun at that than I was trying to counter your viewpoint.
Last edited by a moderator:
MCguidance
Footballguy
Apples and apples in this one instance.
MCguidance
Footballguy
I hope this sig bet materializes?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
It did and he followed thru.
Tau837
Footballguy
I can't disagree. Norv did a little Martyball channeling.
A fluky first INT, but Rivers 2nd was unforgivable. Kaeding's gotta be the goat, though. Again, Jets sure have something with getting kickers to miss in the playoffs, eh? Need to factor that "skill" into your analysis Chase!
And yeah, not the worst sig I might have had to wear.
And yeah, not the worst sig I might have had to wear.
Similar threads
