Only Dalton seems to believe in Jimmy G this season, ranking him in the top 15. Is this well beyond Garoppolo’s most likely outcome for 2020, or is there hidden value in selecting him?
Matt: Dalton has made his case for Jimmy Garoppolo to me many times on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast over the last few months. He has a multitude of good points. I think those add up to make the case that Jimmy Garoppolo will have many big weeks that help you win a head to head matchup. I just don’t see the upside for Garoppolo to develop into anything more than a priority streamer. We know the 49ers want to lean toward being a run-heavy offense. The supporting cast is weaker than it was in early May, following Deebo Samuel’s offseason injury. The opening schedule (vs. Cardinals, at Jets, at Giants, at Eagles) is in his favor. So Garoppolo could get off to a nice start and be a solid QB1 to start the year. Still, if I’m deploying the late-round quarterback strategy, I want the player I’m targeting to have a pathway to be a high-end, every week starter. I don’t see that in the range of outcomes for whoever is piloting this offense.
Scott: Kyle Shanahan builds successful running games, no matter the personnel. And the Niners have the foundation of an excellent defense. So it’s impossible to imagine Garoppolo playing with his hair on fire weekly, a volume collector. Garoppolo is also unlikely to run much. George Kittle is obviously a god at tight end, but the receiver collection is nothing special if we assume Deebo Samuel is out on opening day.
If you want to use Jimmy G as your No. 2 quarterback in a Superflex format, or a depth guy in Best Ball, knock yourself out. I don’t see how you can build an upside case. The volume is unlikely to be there.
Dalton: He got 10.0 YPA(!) on first downs last year and plays for a team that just scored the second-most ppg and likely to be fast-paced but will almost certainly regress on defense in 2020, resulting in higher volume. During the offseason, the team added Trent Williams at left tackle, a receiver who led college football in yards after the catch average (with the third-lowest drop%) with a wingspan like Calvin Johnson in the first round of the draft and saw Jalen Hurd and Jerick McKinnonreturn. During Matt Ryan’s second full year as a starter in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (like Garoppolo will be this season), he threw for nearly 5,000 yards with 38 touchdowns and won MVP. Garoppolo was blitzed by far the highest rate while still recovering from knee surgery last season, and there’s room for further growth having fewer career starts than Baker Mayfield and fewer career pass attempts than Sam Darnold. The 49ers also have one of the more favorable QB fantasy schedules, so Jimmy G’s ADP is comically low.