QB Justin Herbert, LAC (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The Chargers defense is going to be improved by a lot IMO. They improved in every defensive position group this offseason and also improved the defensive coaching staff. I know you disagree, and that's fine. We can revisit after we see it on the field.

what’s “a lot”?

They were 24th in team defense last year. Do you believe they’re going to elevate to top 15?

Seems like a big leap.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If healthy I agree it should be top half with top 10 potential as you say

That’s a huge leap from 24th overall. I’m skeptical that happens in 1 off-season.

ETA: As I’d mentioned above, Mack had a massive resurgence, which looks pretty flukey and unlikely to repeat. That’s just 1 dude, but his 17 sacks were a big reason they were even 24th overall last year.

 

[Jail]

If healthy I agree it should be top half with top 10 potential as you say

That’s a huge leap from 24th overall. I’m skeptical that happens in 1 off-season.

ETA: As I’d mentioned above, Mack had a massive resurgence, which looks pretty flukey and unlikely to repeat. That’s just 1 dude, but his 17 sacks were a big reason they were even 24th overall last year.

IMO a lot depends on health.

But I also think Staley was in over his head. He rose too early after being blessed with having Donald on his defense. He was not ready to oversee the entire team while still being DC. His 4th down risks often put the defense in unfair situations with a really short field.

It doesn't really take a lot to go from 24 to 15. For yards we're talking about 30 yards a game and for points 3 points per game. I think the offense will see an increase in time of possession as well as I think the Oline will be much better.

I guess we'll see though. We're all just guessing.

 

[BoltNlava]

Something about TLaw seems off. Wish I was wise enough to say exactly what but something's not right to my eyes.

I think it’s a matter of expectations being sky high by the FF community combined with the reality of being on the Jags.

Sometimes players take time to adjust to the NFL. Sometimes the NFL adjusts to players.

or maybe some combination of those things. IMO he’s gonna be fine. I didn’t see anything “not right” about him. He’s still a very talented young QB.

So exactly what I said. I see no definitive answers in your response. No offence. Just really what is wrong with him? Anyone? I think we are beyond bad coaching here. I really do.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So exactly what I said. I see no definitive answers in your response. No offence. Just really what is wrong with him? Anyone? I think we are beyond bad coaching here. I really do.

As @menobrown pointed out, he spent about 5-6 weeks getting banged up - he had multiple injuries throughout the season. The OL wasn’t as good as expected, and the playcalling & running back usage were both at times highly questionable.

So a combination of not being physically right and bad coaching. Add to that injuries to his WRs depleting his weaponry, and some memorable untimely drops and it’s not at all difficult to see why he struggled in his 2nd year.

No offense taken. I do think you’re ignoring some very obvious things that led to a subpar sophomore 3rd year.

That said, he still managed to put up 4K+ yards and 21 PaTD.

 

[Jail]

So exactly what I said. I see no definitive answers in your response. No offence. Just really what is wrong with him? Anyone? I think we are beyond bad coaching here. I really do.

As @menobrown pointed out, he spent about 5-6 weeks getting banged up - he had multiple injuries throughout the season. The OL wasn’t as good as expected, and the playcalling & running back usage were both at times highly questionable.

So a combination of not being physically right and bad coaching. Add to that injuries to his WRs depleting his weaponry, and some memorable untimely drops and it’s not at all difficult to see why he struggled in his 2nd year.

No offense taken. I do think you’re ignoring some very obvious things that led to a subpar sophomore year.

That said, he still managed to put up 4K+ yards and 21 PaTD.

That was actually his 3rd year. He's actually been consistently low end qb1 high qb2 the last 2 years. Qb12 and qb13 on points per game. Safe, but I'll be looking elsewhere.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That was actually his 3rd year. He's actually been consistently low end qb1 high qb2 the last 2 years. Qb12 and qb13 on points per game. Safe, but I'll be looking elsewhere.

Ah, you’re correct on that.

I think TLaw still has plenty of upside. If he was healthy last year he’d likely be closer to 5K PaYD than 4K.

 

[menobrown]

So exactly what I said. I see no definitive answers in your response. No offence. Just really what is wrong with him? Anyone? I think we are beyond bad coaching here. I really do.

As @menobrown pointed out, he spent about 5-6 weeks getting banged up - he had multiple injuries throughout the season. The OL wasn’t as good as expected, and the playcalling & running back usage were both at times highly questionable.

So a combination of not being physically right and bad coaching. Add to that injuries to his WRs depleting his weaponry, and some memorable untimely drops and it’s not at all difficult to see why he struggled in his 2nd year.

No offense taken. I do think you’re ignoring some very obvious things that led to a subpar sophomore year.

That said, he still managed to put up 4K+ yards and 21 PaTD.

That was actually his 3rd year. He's actually been consistently low end qb1 high qb2 the last 2 years. Qb12 and qb13 on points per game. Safe, but I'll be looking elsewhere.

His points were not way higher in 2022 but in 4 pt passing leagues he was QB7 in PPG that season. Just pointing out he was more of a mid QB1, guess depends on your scoring system.

He only lost about one fantasy point ppg from 22 to 23 but fell from QB7 to QB15, but QB's 7-19 were separated by just 2 fantasy points a game which tells us how tight things can be to separate these QB's and also that PPG might be more useful then worrying about rankings.

In my head I kind I tend to put QB's in buckets. 25+PPG the very elite and the few worth investing high. 22-25 PPG range ok to draft a little earlier as oppossed to just waiting to see what you get. 20-22 PPG range I'm going to wait until a run on them happens and take what I can get, try as you mentioned earlier and grab two of them to make sure because I tend to view 20 PPG as the minimum threwshold I want for a starting QB in a typical 4 pt passing league.

For purposes of the Herbert discussion, I have him and Trevor both in the 20-22 projected bucket, but I do prefer Trevor.

 

[Tau837]

The Chargers defense is going to be improved by a lot IMO. They improved in every defensive position group this offseason and also improved the defensive coaching staff. I know you disagree, and that's fine. We can revisit after we see it on the field.

what’s “a lot”?

They were 24th in team defense last year. Do you believe they’re going to elevate to top 15?

Seems like a big leap.

I have already posted that I think their defense will be in the top half of the league with potential for top 10. If it happens, it will indeed be a big improvement.

To get to top half in yards allowed means allowing ~30 fewer yards per game. To get to top half in points allowed means allowing ~2 fewer points per game. Heck, eliminate the 63 point fluke game that got HC Staley and GM Telesco fired last season, and the Chargers were already in the top half (#13) in points allowed in the other 16 games.

The Chargers have one of the best groups of edge defenders in the league if healthy (Bosa, Mack, Tuipulotu, and Dupree). They improved their edge, IDL, ILB, and CB position groups while holding steady at safety. Most importantly, they changed the defensive coaching staff. Staley's defensive scheme was ineffective in LA, and he didn't know what to do about it. I think Minter's scheme will be a big improvement and a better fit for the defensive roster.

As I wrote before, we can revisit after we see the results.

 

[Ray_T]

IMO:

• Herbert will average the fewest passing attempts per game in his career
• He will be throwing to the weakest set of targets in his career
• The Chargers will have more rushing attempts than in any season of Herbert's career
• The Chargers will be content to win games with defense and running game when they can

That is a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 10 QBs, and that is what I am expecting. I think the Harbaugh/Roman/Minter approach will work well in real life NFL, but not so much for fantasy.

you are forgetting one thing: if Joe Alt is an impact LT right out of the gate, the protection will be better. So Herbert will have more time to throw. That said, if the WR are not quite as good, this likely means more checkdown throws. so who do you think will be the #1 checkdown Target for Herbert? hes the guy who could be an interesting player to own.

I'm not forgetting anything. Alt's presence is part of why I expect Herbert's efficiency to be improved. And Alt won't be an impact LT... the Chargers have Slater at LT. Alt is going to start at RT.

I dont care who starts where. but if I'm owning a piece of the offense all I really care about is that both Tackle positions are solid and Herbert has time to throw the ball.

when he has time, he usually makes a good play.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

when he has time, he usually makes a good play.

It’s kind of amazing the fade he’s getting, considering his career numbers so far.

What if he’s in the 3500 yard range but throws 40 TD? Does his FF value rebound? Or will folks still say, “jeez I dunno, Roman & Harbaugh…”

I’m betting the latter.

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

 

[Tau837]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

Because it’s in the realm of potential outcomes - because he is a good QB. His career production so far has been remarkable. Historically good, in fact.

I think 20 is the outlier. A down season. Everyone is treating it like his first few years were a fluke and that was the real Herbert.

FF managers suffer from recency bias like no one else on earth. He went from top 5 start-up pick last year to can’t give him away this year in dynasty. Seems like an overreaction.

 

[Tau837]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

Because it’s in the realm of potential outcomes - because he is a good QB. His career production so far has been remarkable. Historically good, in fact.

I think 20 is the outlier. A down season. Everyone is treating it like his first few years were a fluke and that was the real Herbert.

FF managers suffer from recency bias like no one else on earth. He went from top 5 start-up pick last year to can’t give him away this year in dynasty. Seems like an overreaction.

Again, if you aren't predicting 40 TDs, why write it? Is it possible? Yes, at a very low probability. 5%? So?

If you had to project his TDs for the full season, what is your projection? That would be potentially more meaningful than a throwaway comment about his ceiling.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

Because it’s in the realm of potential outcomes - because he is a good QB. His career production so far has been remarkable. Historically good, in fact.

I think 20 is the outlier. A down season. Everyone is treating it like his first few years were a fluke and that was the real Herbert.

FF managers suffer from recency bias like no one else on earth. He went from top 5 start-up pick last year to can’t give him away this year in dynasty. Seems like an overreaction.

Again, if you aren't predicting 40 TDs, why write it? Is it possible? Yes, at a very low probability. 5%? So?

If you had to project his TDs for the full season, what is your projection? That would be more meaningful than a throwaway comment about his ceiling.

I already posted it above. It was admittedly bold.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My favorite narrative, “Herbert has no weapons!” - 2nd year X WR, super talented rookie in McConkey, solid if unspectacular incumbent in Palmer.

With Mahomes the narrative is, “worthy, Hollywood Brown, Hardman, Rice, Etc!” Man, with all these weapons they added in the offseason he’d gonna be back to his old self! ”

Last year at this time Mahomes and Herbert were like 3 picks apart in start-up drafts.

Maybe I’m crazy, but I believe in Herbert’s talent.

 

[Ray_T]

when he has time, he usually makes a good play.

It’s kind of amazing the fade he’s getting, considering his career numbers so far.

What if he’s in the 3500 yard range but throws 40 TD? Does his FF value rebound? Or will folks still say, “jeez I dunno, Roman & Harbaugh…”

I’m betting the latter.

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

well, everyone talks about the run game, but Alex Smith and Kaepernick actually produced reasonably decently in that offense too. and I'd argue neither of them has the talent of Herbert. Just sayin..... coach may wanna run the ball, but he also likes to give his QB a clean pocket. Herbert will be fine. He may not be a top 5 QB this year. but I think overall, the offense will be more efficient. Time of possession will be a lot higher and as a result, the defense will be better too. you cant give up points if you are not on the field.

 

[TheWinz]

well, everyone talks about the run game, but Alex Smith and Kaepernick actually produced reasonably decently in that offense too. and I'd argue neither of them has the talent of Herbert. Just sayin..... coach may wanna run the ball, but he also likes to give his QB a clean pocket. Herbert will be fine. He may not be a top 5 QB this year. but I think overall, the offense will be more efficient. Time of possession will be a lot higher and as a result, the defense will be better too. you cant give up points if you are not on the field.

2023 - 27th in TOP - 24th in points given up
2022 - 9th in TOP - 21st in points given up
2021 - 23rd in TOP - 30th in points given up
2020 - 4th in TOP - 23rd in points given up

Looking at the above, seems the Chargers give up points no matter how good their TOP is. I have to assume they will be in the top half TOP-wise based on the running mentality, and hoping the defense improves as well. I'm fine with Herbert being a mid-level fantasy QB as long as we can have a good season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2023 - 27th in TOP - 24th in points given up
2022 - 9th in TOP - 21st in points given up
2021 - 23rd in TOP - 30th in points given up
2020 - 4th in TOP - 23rd in points given up

Looking at the above, seems the Chargers give up points no matter how good their TOP is. I have to assume they will be in the top half TOP-wise based on the running mentality, and hoping the defense improves as well. I'm fine with Herbert being a mid-level fantasy QB as long as we can have a good season.

I don’t see enough improvement to their defense to keep them out of shootouts.

I touched on this (ok, harped on it relentlessly) above,

I know what Roman and Harbaugh want to do. I just don’t see a defense or running backs room that will allow them to do it. And Mack is highly likely to regress from last seasons’ resurgence.

Herbert will be fine. FF-wise.

 

[TheWinz]

2023 - 27th in TOP - 24th in points given up
2022 - 9th in TOP - 21st in points given up
2021 - 23rd in TOP - 30th in points given up
2020 - 4th in TOP - 23rd in points given up

Looking at the above, seems the Chargers give up points no matter how good their TOP is. I have to assume they will be in the top half TOP-wise based on the running mentality, and hoping the defense improves as well. I'm fine with Herbert being a mid-level fantasy QB as long as we can have a good season.

I don’t see enough improvement to their defense to keep them out of shootouts.

I touched on this (ok, harped on it relentlessly) above,

I know what Roman and Harbaugh want to do. I just don’t see a defense or running backs room that will allow them to do it. And Mack is highly likely to regress from last seasons’ resurgence.

Herbert will be fine. FF-wise.

2023 - Herbert finished QB18, but QB12 in PPG
2022 - Herbert finished QB11, but QB16 in PPG
2021 - Herbert finished QB3, and also QB3 in PPG
2020 - Herbert finished QB10, and also QB10 in PPG

The only season he was inside the top 10 either overall or PPG was when he threw for 5014 yards, with 38 TD's. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams all played in 16 games, and had great years. Ekeler finished as RB2 with 70/647/8 receiving, Allen was WR11 with 106/1138/6, and Williams was WR14 with 76/1146/9. Since no one on the planet is going to say Herbert is going to morph into a running QB, he's going to have to get his points thru passing.

If Herbert is going to be fine FF-wise, the fantasy community is grossly underestimating his pass catchers. The highest WR is ranked around WR49, and the highest TE is around TE27. And we all know the lead RB, Gus Edwards, is not known at all as a receiver. So, which of the Chargers pass catchers are we underrating?

 

[Bri]

It's cool reading all the different quotes of Harbaugh being amazed and loving Herbert.

I'm waiting for Donald Parham Jr to get healthy and wow Harbaugh too.

I don't much like their other TEs. The mentions of UDFA Stein or Shein impressing has me wondering how good Dissly or Hurst even looked if Shein shined.

Roman's offense now, lack of name WRs...maybe the TE sees an uptick. Maybe this is finally Parham's year. Reaches but last pick reaches so I'll be considering this all summer

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So, which of the Chargers pass catchers are we underrating?

I’d say potentially all 3 of Ladd, Quentin & Palmer. But a lot is TBD.

Good QBs can elevate WRs. I’m hoping that’s the case here.

 

[Tau837]

And Mack is highly likely to regress from last seasons’ resurgence.

I know you and I disagree about the Chargers defense, which is fine, but I have to comment on this. Yes, Mack could regress. But you are ignoring offsetting factors in that position group:

• Bosa played just 320 snaps last season, and many of those snaps at less than 100%. Yet he had the 3rd highest PFF grade on the Chargers defense. He should play more this season, hopefully much more.
• Last season, Tuipulotu had the 8th highest PFF grade on the Chargers defense as a rookie. He should be better in his second year.
• Last season, the 4th edge player was Chris Rumph. This season, it is Bud Dupree. Big upgrade there.

This is one of the strongest groups of edge defenders in the league, whether or not Mack regresses.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

And Mack is highly likely to regress from last seasons’ resurgence.

I know you and I disagree about the Chargers defense, which is fine, but I have to comment on this. Yes, Mack could regress. But you are ignoring offsetting factors in that position group:

• Bosa played just 320 snaps last season, and many of those snaps at less than 100%. Yet he had the 3rd highest PFF grade on the Chargers defense. He should play more this season, hopefully much more.
• Last season, Tuipulotu had the 8th highest PFF grade on the Chargers defense as a rookie. He should be better in his second year.
• Last season, the 4th edge player was Chris Rumph. This season, it is Bud Dupree. Big upgrade there.

This is one of the strongest groups of edge defenders in the league, whether or not Mack regresses.

I think Mack’s 17 sacks regressing after going 8.5, 9, 6, & 8 the previous 4 years is a stone cold lock.

And without it, I do believe they regress as a unit.

And yea, Bosa was hurt & only played in 9 games (6 starts). But in 2022 he only played in 5 games (4 starts). And he turns 29 in july. If he’s who you’re counting on to elevate that unit, you might want to temper expectations.

That leaves Tui, who I agree is good and could be better, & Dupree, who I agree is an upgrade. But I don’t believe those 2 offset the likely drop-off from Mack, and potential of injury from Bosa, who I fear we may have seen the best of his career behind him.

It’ll be interesting to see how this unit develops, but I still don’t see anything to make me believe they’re going to take a leap from 24th overall to top 15 or top 10. For that, you’d need 17 games out of Bosa and a repeat year from Mack - odds of that seem pretty long against.

 

[jm192]

The internet/FF world has overcorrected too much.

Fantasypros has him as QB15
FBG has him as QB19.

He was QB11 in PPG last year.

I get the concern that Harbaugh's going to go run heavy. But my god, is he such a bad coach that inherited one of the best young QB's in the league and turns him into a hand off machine?
They're so eager to run the ball 500 times that they went out and got Gus Edwards and the left over parts of JK Dobbins?
I also agree with @Hot Sauce Guy: the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game.

He'll certainly miss Keenan Allen and Ekeler. I think McConkey is going to be really good early. And I think his talent will keep the offense/passing game in a place where he's productive--certainly better than QB19.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game. He was top 3 or 4 at one point. And I get that changes matter. But man, QB15? QB19?

 

[jm192]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

I think range of outcomes matters. I think the entirety of the game comes down to playing on the range of outcomes. We're really bad at predicting the future. So considering the upside and downside of something can help a lot when we get it really wrong or really right.

We certainly put the meat of our thoughts where we think someone will end up--but you have to consider the possibility of an outlier. We're trying to predict the future. We're not THAT good at it.

Puka was a 5th round pick. He was very likely to do nothing year 1. The people that thought "I kinda think that guy COULD do something" and took a flier were rewarded. The rest of us were blowing our FAAB budget in the leagues he was available in.

Another example" , I THINK Marvin Harrison Jr. Probably winds up with like 80 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 touchdowns. I would predict that. I think that's likely enough to happen.

I also think that there's a world in which he goes nuts and has 98 catches, 1350 yards, 10 TD's. And I'm going to rank him a little higher than some guys that I can't see getting to that extreme place because--if he hits, it's paying dividends. And I consider upside. We all should.

So, while it's important to put emphasis on what we think WILL happen, we always should consider the upside and downside--not just the prediction we're confident in--because we're wrong A LOT.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not saying he’s gonna throw 40 TD, but it’s in the realm of potential outcomes.

If you aren't predicting it, what's the point of writing this? Sure it is within the realm of potential outcomes... so is 20 TD passes (his total last season).

I think range of outcomes matters. I think the entirety of the game comes down to playing on the range of outcomes.

We certainly put the meat of our thoughts where we think someone will end up--but you have to consider the possibility of an outlier. We're trying to predict the future. We're not THAT good at it.

Puka was a 5th round pick. He was very likely to do nothing year 1. The people that thought "I kinda think that guy COULD do something" and took a flier were rewarded. The rest of us were blowing our FAAB budget in the leagues he was available in.

So, while it's important to put emphasis on what we think WILL happen, we always should consider the upside and downside--not just the average finish.

also the point me me saying it had literally nothing to do with projecting Herbert and everything to do with saying the narrative about Harbaugh/Roman was a little overblown and people were overreacting.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

 

[Tau837]

the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game

This kind of hyperbole really doesn't aid the discussion. No one has said this and no one should think that.

IMO the most likely outcome for run/pass ratio this season for the Chargers is that they will be in the top half of the league in designed run plays and Herbert will attempt fewer passes per game than in any full season of his career. That doesn't mean I'm saying Herbert will only drop back 20 times per game.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game.

I agree 100%.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

I'm not sure who you are lumping into the group that isn't giving full credit for how good he is. I think he is a top 5-10 real life NFL QB, but that doesn't equate to being a top 5-10 fantasy QB.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

You paint with a broad brush. Here are Herbert's QB ppg rankings in a standard PPR league:

• 2023 - 21.6 ppg, QB13 (23.0 ppg without his injury shortened final game, which would have been QB7 for the full season)
• 2022 - 20.9 ppg, QB15
• 2021 - 26.9 ppg, QB3
• 2020 - 26.4 ppg, QB9 (QB8 if we ignore Mariota, who only played 1 game)

Herbert was injured in both 2022 and 2023, so that no doubt contributed to his dropoff. It is reasonable to assume he will be healthy this season, so that is a reason he could improve from a fantasy perspective. I think he (and the entire team) will also benefit from improved coaching.

But playing in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, likely with fewer pass attempts, and with a weaker set of targets is not a recipe for a great fantasy season.

Everyone who takes all of the factors into account and doesn't see him as a top fantasy QB is not falling victim to recency bias.

 

[jm192]

the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game

This kind of hyperbole really doesn't aid the discussion. No one has said this and no one should think that.

IMO the most likely outcome for run/pass ratio this season for the Chargers is that they will be in the top half of the league in designed run plays and Herbert will attempt fewer passes per game than in any full season of his career. That doesn't mean I'm saying Herbert will only drop back 20 times per game.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game.

I agree 100%.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

I'm not sure who you are lumping into the group that isn't giving full credit for how good he is. I think he is a top 5-10 real life NFL QB, but that doesn't equate to being a top 5-10 fantasy QB.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

You paint with a broad brush. Here are Herbert's QB ppg rankings in a standard PPR league:

• 2023 - 21.6 ppg, QB13 (23.0 ppg without his injury shortened final game, which would have been QB7 for the full season)
• 2022 - 20.9 ppg, QB15
• 2021 - 26.9 ppg, QB3
• 2020 - 26.4 ppg, QB9 (QB8 if we ignore Mariota, who only played 1 game)

Herbert was injured in both 2022 and 2023, so that no doubt contributed to his dropoff. It is reasonable to assume he will be healthy this season, so that is a reason he could improve from a fantasy perspective. I think he (and the entire team) will also benefit from improved coaching.

But playing in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, likely with fewer pass attempts, and with a weaker set of targets is not a recipe for a great fantasy season.

Everyone who takes all of the factors into account and doesn't see him as a top fantasy QB is not falling victim to recency bias.

I guess I just feel like this notion that they're going to run the ball so much that he can't produce is it's own outstanding hyperbole.

Let's try and define it:

The Detroit Lions gave their running backs right around 450 carries last year.
Goff STILL finished as QB8.
So with a team that has a good defense and runs the ball a lot--you can still have a top 8 fantasy QB.

I just really think it's overstated how the Chargers are going to run the ball so much. So yeah. 40 times a game was over the top. But Jared Goff did it while his team ran it 26+ times a game. Do you REALLY think the Chargers are going to get to 28? 30? With a worse defense and a worse offensive line and worse running backs? It just doens't compute.

 

[Tau837]

the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game

This kind of hyperbole really doesn't aid the discussion. No one has said this and no one should think that.

IMO the most likely outcome for run/pass ratio this season for the Chargers is that they will be in the top half of the league in designed run plays and Herbert will attempt fewer passes per game than in any full season of his career. That doesn't mean I'm saying Herbert will only drop back 20 times per game.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game.

I agree 100%.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

I'm not sure who you are lumping into the group that isn't giving full credit for how good he is. I think he is a top 5-10 real life NFL QB, but that doesn't equate to being a top 5-10 fantasy QB.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

You paint with a broad brush. Here are Herbert's QB ppg rankings in a standard PPR league:

• 2023 - 21.6 ppg, QB13 (23.0 ppg without his injury shortened final game, which would have been QB7 for the full season)
• 2022 - 20.9 ppg, QB15
• 2021 - 26.9 ppg, QB3
• 2020 - 26.4 ppg, QB9 (QB8 if we ignore Mariota, who only played 1 game)

Herbert was injured in both 2022 and 2023, so that no doubt contributed to his dropoff. It is reasonable to assume he will be healthy this season, so that is a reason he could improve from a fantasy perspective. I think he (and the entire team) will also benefit from improved coaching.

But playing in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, likely with fewer pass attempts, and with a weaker set of targets is not a recipe for a great fantasy season.

Everyone who takes all of the factors into account and doesn't see him as a top fantasy QB is not falling victim to recency bias.

I guess I just feel like this notion that they're going to run the ball so much that he can't produce is it's own outstanding hyperbole.

Let's try and define it:

The Detroit Lions gave their running backs right around 450 carries last year.
Goff STILL finished as QB8.
So with a team that has a good defense and runs the ball a lot--you can still have a top 8 fantasy QB.

I just really think it's overstated how the Chargers are going to run the ball so much. So yeah. 40 times a game was over the top. But Jared Goff did it while his team ran it 26+ times a game. Do you REALLY think the Chargers are going to get to 28? 30? With a worse defense and a worse offensive line and worse running backs? It just doens't compute.

Goff was QB14 last season in ppg.

Goff played for OC Ben Johnson, who is known for being one of the most creative offensive minds in the NFL today. Herbert will play for OC Roman, who is known for having outstanding running schemes/offenses.

Detroit was #2 in number of offensive plays run in the league last year. When Harbaugh and Roman were in SF, they finished #24, #30, #31, and #20 in number of offensive plays. Granted, that was with Smith/Kaepernick, not Herbert.

Detroit also had a stronger set of receiving targets (St. Brown, LaPorta, et al.) than Herbert will likely have this season.

So I don't think the situations are particularly comparable.

I'm not down on Herbert at all, and I expect he will have more pass attempts than any QB Roman has ever had. But I also think that will be fewer pass attempts than he has had in past seasons.

 

[jm192]

the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game

This kind of hyperbole really doesn't aid the discussion. No one has said this and no one should think that.

IMO the most likely outcome for run/pass ratio this season for the Chargers is that they will be in the top half of the league in designed run plays and Herbert will attempt fewer passes per game than in any full season of his career. That doesn't mean I'm saying Herbert will only drop back 20 times per game.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game.

I agree 100%.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

I'm not sure who you are lumping into the group that isn't giving full credit for how good he is. I think he is a top 5-10 real life NFL QB, but that doesn't equate to being a top 5-10 fantasy QB.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

You paint with a broad brush. Here are Herbert's QB ppg rankings in a standard PPR league:

• 2023 - 21.6 ppg, QB13 (23.0 ppg without his injury shortened final game, which would have been QB7 for the full season)
• 2022 - 20.9 ppg, QB15
• 2021 - 26.9 ppg, QB3
• 2020 - 26.4 ppg, QB9 (QB8 if we ignore Mariota, who only played 1 game)

Herbert was injured in both 2022 and 2023, so that no doubt contributed to his dropoff. It is reasonable to assume he will be healthy this season, so that is a reason he could improve from a fantasy perspective. I think he (and the entire team) will also benefit from improved coaching.

But playing in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, likely with fewer pass attempts, and with a weaker set of targets is not a recipe for a great fantasy season.

Everyone who takes all of the factors into account and doesn't see him as a top fantasy QB is not falling victim to recency bias.

I guess I just feel like this notion that they're going to run the ball so much that he can't produce is it's own outstanding hyperbole.

Let's try and define it:

The Detroit Lions gave their running backs right around 450 carries last year.
Goff STILL finished as QB8.
So with a team that has a good defense and runs the ball a lot--you can still have a top 8 fantasy QB.

I just really think it's overstated how the Chargers are going to run the ball so much. So yeah. 40 times a game was over the top. But Jared Goff did it while his team ran it 26+ times a game. Do you REALLY think the Chargers are going to get to 28? 30? With a worse defense and a worse offensive line and worse running backs? It just doens't compute.

Goff was QB14 last season in ppg.

Goff played for OC Ben Johnson, who is known for being one of the most creative offensive minds in the NFL today. Herbert will play for OC Roman, who is known for having outstanding running schemes/offenses.

Detroit was #2 in number of offensive plays run in the league last year. When Harbaugh and Roman were in SF, they finished #24, #30, #31, and #20 in number of offensive plays. Granted, that was with Smith/Kaepernick, not Herbert.

Detroit also had a stronger set of receiving targets (St. Brown, LaPorta, et al.) than Herbert will likely have this season.

So I don't think the situations are terribly comparable.

I'm not down on Herbert at all, and I expect he will have more pass attempts than any QB Roman has ever had. But I also think that will be fewer pass attempts than he has had in past seasons.

Goff was still QB8 overall. And Quarterbacks will miss time next season. So I'm not going to diminish Goff's season for staying healthy for all 17. He was a QB1 with a team that ran the ball alot.

You're saying the situations aren't comparable: But you don't even use the Chargers for your point. You switched to a 49ers team that doesn't even have the Quarterback we're discussing. Which certainly...isn't comprable.

But you're right. The Lions have a good defense. They have a great offensive line. They have two very good running backs. The Chargers don't have any of that. So why would I believe that the Chargers can run the ball as much as the Lions? I don't see a path to it.

Speaking of situations that aren't comparable:

I keep reading Harbaugh always did this. Roman always does that. When have they ever had a QB like Herbert? Is Harbaugh such a bad coach that he's going to NOT use the arm of a top 5 QB?

I can imagine the job interview:

"What are your plans for our ultra talented young QB?"

"I'm going to get him some really mediocre running backs and ask him to hand the ball off 30 times a game."

 

[Leroy Hoard]

keep reading Harbaugh always did this. Roman always does that. When have they ever had a QB like Herbert? Is Harbaugh such a bad coach that he's going to NOT use the arm of a top 5 QB?

I can imagine the job interview:

"What are your plans for our ultra talented young QB?"

"I'm going to get him some really mediocre running backs and ask him to hand the ball off 30 times a game."

I would have to imagine that getting a good QB to go with an available NFL HC job was a huge selling point to Harbough. That's obviously not always the case with NFL job openings. I'm sure he has plans to use him for more than just handing the ball to Gus Edwards.

 

[TheWinz]

In Herbert's 4 seasons, the LAC rushing game has ranked 16th, 27th, 30th, and 30th in yards per carry. I am guessing this will be their best year under Herbert, somewhere around 11-15th.

 

[Tau837]

the defense probably doesn't make such a massive leap that they can just run the ball 40 times a game

This kind of hyperbole really doesn't aid the discussion. No one has said this and no one should think that.

IMO the most likely outcome for run/pass ratio this season for the Chargers is that they will be in the top half of the league in designed run plays and Herbert will attempt fewer passes per game than in any full season of his career. That doesn't mean I'm saying Herbert will only drop back 20 times per game.

I still think he's one of the best QB's in the game.

I agree 100%.

I was also saying that Herbert is better than many here are giving him credit for.

I'm not sure who you are lumping into the group that isn't giving full credit for how good he is. I think he is a top 5-10 real life NFL QB, but that doesn't equate to being a top 5-10 fantasy QB.

Again, FF managers have the absolute worst case of recency bias of anyone on Earth.

You paint with a broad brush. Here are Herbert's QB ppg rankings in a standard PPR league:

• 2023 - 21.6 ppg, QB13 (23.0 ppg without his injury shortened final game, which would have been QB7 for the full season)
• 2022 - 20.9 ppg, QB15
• 2021 - 26.9 ppg, QB3
• 2020 - 26.4 ppg, QB9 (QB8 if we ignore Mariota, who only played 1 game)

Herbert was injured in both 2022 and 2023, so that no doubt contributed to his dropoff. It is reasonable to assume he will be healthy this season, so that is a reason he could improve from a fantasy perspective. I think he (and the entire team) will also benefit from improved coaching.

But playing in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, likely with fewer pass attempts, and with a weaker set of targets is not a recipe for a great fantasy season.

Everyone who takes all of the factors into account and doesn't see him as a top fantasy QB is not falling victim to recency bias.

I guess I just feel like this notion that they're going to run the ball so much that he can't produce is it's own outstanding hyperbole.

Let's try and define it:

The Detroit Lions gave their running backs right around 450 carries last year.
Goff STILL finished as QB8.
So with a team that has a good defense and runs the ball a lot--you can still have a top 8 fantasy QB.

I just really think it's overstated how the Chargers are going to run the ball so much. So yeah. 40 times a game was over the top. But Jared Goff did it while his team ran it 26+ times a game. Do you REALLY think the Chargers are going to get to 28? 30? With a worse defense and a worse offensive line and worse running backs? It just doens't compute.

Goff was QB14 last season in ppg.

Goff played for OC Ben Johnson, who is known for being one of the most creative offensive minds in the NFL today. Herbert will play for OC Roman, who is known for having outstanding running schemes/offenses.

Detroit was #2 in number of offensive plays run in the league last year. When Harbaugh and Roman were in SF, they finished #24, #30, #31, and #20 in number of offensive plays. Granted, that was with Smith/Kaepernick, not Herbert.

Detroit also had a stronger set of receiving targets (St. Brown, LaPorta, et al.) than Herbert will likely have this season.

So I don't think the situations are terribly comparable.

I'm not down on Herbert at all, and I expect he will have more pass attempts than any QB Roman has ever had. But I also think that will be fewer pass attempts than he has had in past seasons.

Goff was still QB8 overall. And Quarterbacks will miss time next season. So I'm not going to diminish Goff's season for staying healthy for all 17. He was a QB1 with a team that ran the ball alot.

You're saying the situations aren't comparable: But you don't even use the Chargers for your point. You switched to a 49ers team that doesn't even have the Quarterback we're discussing. Which certainly...isn't comprable.

But you're right. The Lions have a good defense. They have a great offensive line. They have two very good running backs. The Chargers don't have any of that. So why would I believe that the Chargers can run the ball as much as the Lions? I don't see a path to it.

Speaking of situations that aren't comparable:

I keep reading Harbaugh always did this. Roman always does that. When have they ever had a QB like Herbert? Is Harbaugh such a bad coach that he's going to NOT use the arm of a top 5 QB?

I can imagine the job interview:

"What are your plans for our ultra talented young QB?"

"I'm going to get him some really mediocre running backs and ask him to hand the ball off 30 times a game."

If you can't see a path to it, despite everything that has been posted, and despite your own comment that we need to consider a range of outcomes, then there is nothing more for us to discuss. Your mind is made up, and maybe you'll be right. I'm pretty confident in my perspective on it. We'll see.

And you can stop misrepresenting my posts. I have pointed out that Harbaugh and Roman have never had a QB like Herbert multiple times. I have never said they won't use Herbert's arm. I have never said they will run 30 times per game.

I'm a Chargers fan. I hope you are right that Herbert has a great fantasy season, because it would presumably mean a lot of yards and TDs and a great offense for the Chargers.

 

[Tau837]

keep reading Harbaugh always did this. Roman always does that. When have they ever had a QB like Herbert? Is Harbaugh such a bad coach that he's going to NOT use the arm of a top 5 QB?

I can imagine the job interview:

"What are your plans for our ultra talented young QB?"

"I'm going to get him some really mediocre running backs and ask him to hand the ball off 30 times a game."

I would have to imagine that getting a good QB to go with an available NFL HC job was a huge selling point to Harbough. That's obviously not always the case with NFL job openings. I'm sure he has plans to use him for more than just handing the ball to Gus Edwards.

Of course he does. Nobody said otherwise other than in @jm192 's misrepresentations.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You paint with a broad brush

No, I comment on actual rankings.

Last year in my 16 team startup Herbert went 1.04

I hardly think I’m “painting with a broad brush” to observe that his value has plummeted in one season.

That most certainly is recency bias, by the entire FF ecosystem.

 

[Ray_T]

well, everyone talks about the run game, but Alex Smith and Kaepernick actually produced reasonably decently in that offense too. and I'd argue neither of them has the talent of Herbert. Just sayin..... coach may wanna run the ball, but he also likes to give his QB a clean pocket. Herbert will be fine. He may not be a top 5 QB this year. but I think overall, the offense will be more efficient. Time of possession will be a lot higher and as a result, the defense will be better too. you cant give up points if you are not on the field.

2023 - 27th in TOP - 24th in points given up
2022 - 9th in TOP - 21st in points given up
2021 - 23rd in TOP - 30th in points given up
2020 - 4th in TOP - 23rd in points given up

Looking at the above, seems the Chargers give up points no matter how good their TOP is. I have to assume they will be in the top half TOP-wise based on the running mentality, and hoping the defense improves as well. I'm fine with Herbert being a mid-level fantasy QB as long as we can have a good season.

yeah but lots of time the chargers would put up the points very quickly and spend no time on the field. so they would score, and the D would be back onto the field quickly.

I think the idea here is to score, but to take a bit more time off of the clock by running the ball.

too many games I saw the D playing reasonably well, but those last 2 possessions they fall apart because they are gassed. I think that plays a role here. Keep in mind these changes are to win games. not to help with fantasy production (which I assure you the coach doesnt care about)

 

[Ray_T]

You paint with a broad brush

No, I comment on actual rankings.

Last year in my 16 team startup Herbert went 1.04

I hardly think I’m “painting with a broad brush” to observe that his value has plummeted in one season.

That most certainly is recency bias, by the entire FF ecosystem.

thats the way it always is. what have you done for me lately?

the key is to find players who maybe had a down year. if you can pin down a reason for this and determine if the conditions leading to the bad year are still there (or not)

if yes, then plan for another down year. if no, that player is a rebound candidate

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

thats the way it always is. what have you done for me lately?

the key is to find players who maybe had a down year. if you can pin down a reason for this and determine if the conditions leading to the bad year are still there (or not)

if yes, then plan for another down year. if no, that player is a rebound candidate

In that start-up, i dealt Mahomes + 2 back of the bench IDP players For Herbert+Nico+Fant+2025 2nd+2026 1st.

In IDP those 2nd round picks are much more valuable, and it’s TE-P.

To me, that feels like a massive over correction. Is Mahomes worth more? Absolutely. Is he worth Nico, Fant, and a 1st & 2nd more?

 

[Ray_T]

thats the way it always is. what have you done for me lately?

the key is to find players who maybe had a down year. if you can pin down a reason for this and determine if the conditions leading to the bad year are still there (or not)

if yes, then plan for another down year. if no, that player is a rebound candidate

In that start-up, i dealt Mahomes + 2 back of the bench IDP players For Herbert+Nico+Fant+2025 2nd+2026 1st.

In IDP those 2nd round picks are much more valuable, and it’s TE-P.

To me, that feels like a massive over correction. Is Mahomes worth more? Absolutely. Is he worth Nico, Fant, and a 1st & 2nd more?

thats fair.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

thats fair.

I believe it was an overpay for Mahomes, personally. We’d been going back & forth in chat, and when I offered it I expected him to counter either without the picks or without Nico.

ngl, when he accepted I giggled a little.

 

[Ray_T]

thats fair.

I believe it was an overpay for Mahomes, personally. We’d been going back & forth in chat, and when I offered it I expected him to counter either without the picks or without Nico.

ngl, when he accepted I giggled a little.

in his defense, usually the person getting the best player usually wins the trade. but I agree. he gave up a kings ransom (and more) to get Mahomes. so maybe not a terrible time to sell.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

he gave up a kings ransom (and more) to get Mahomes. so maybe not a terrible time to

What’s wild is PM was coming off of a pretty down year.

While I do expect PM to throw more TDs in ‘24, it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to return to his lofty former numbers,

Chiefs are more balanced with Pacheco, and Tyreek Hill isn’t walking into that locker room anytime soon. They added some pieces, but none are Tyreek. It’s fair to wonder at this point how much Hill helped elevate PM, when more often most folks credit PM.

On topic, I just don’t see the chasm between Mahomes & Herbert as anywhere near that great. Especially in a larger formats. Mine’s a 16 team IDP SF, where 11/11 dilution + big play IDP scoring (1 SFL can = 24) makes the QB just a little less valuable.

Format-specific, but Herbert’s floor was enough for me to move off PM for that package. Hopefully I can get 250/2 a week with the occasional rushing & RuTD.

Maybe he has some boom games if his young WR can be better than expected & Harbaugh/Roman aren’t afraid to air it out a little.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

From an article I just read about AFC defenses.

The Chargers defense has a point to prove after finishing in the bottom five among all NFL defensesin most yards allowed, most passing yards allowed, and bottom eight in points allowed per game in 2023.

Unfortunately, there are not many reasons to think a quick turnaround will occur. A healthy Joey Bosacan be a difference-maker, but even the most optimistic IDP manager has lost confidence that he can avoid injuries. Khalil Mack and Tuli productive, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to combine for 26 sacks again. Justin Eboigbe could work his way into a rotation at defensive tackle as Poona Ford and Otito Ogbonniaoffer little.

 

[Scoresman]

My QB12.

Projecting 388/565 3899 yards. 26/8 TD/INT

Predicting more efficiency, slightly less pass attempts due to coaching style, but I agree this will be interesting to see coaching style vs. team makeup. I'd normally project way fewer pass attempts, but like many, I don't know if they'll be able to sustain it.

 

[TheWinz]

My QB12.

Projecting 388/565 3899 yards. 26/8 TD/INT

Predicting more efficiency, slightly less pass attempts due to coaching style, but I agree this will be interesting to see coaching style vs. team makeup. I'd normally project way fewer pass attempts, but like many, I don't know if they'll be able to sustain it.

Those numbers, combined with his lifetime rushing average per game, would give him 287.04 points over 17 games, making him QB8 last year, but drop him down to QB18 in terms of PPG (16.9).

 

[King of the Jungle]

From an article I just read about AFC defenses.

The Chargers defense has a point to prove after finishing in the bottom five among all NFL defensesin most yards allowed, most passing yards allowed, and bottom eight in points allowed per game in 2023.

Unfortunately, there are not many reasons to think a quick turnaround will occur. A healthy Joey Bosacan be a difference-maker, but even the most optimistic IDP manager has lost confidence that he can avoid injuries. Khalil Mack and Tuli productive, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to combine for 26 sacks again. Justin Eboigbe could work his way into a rotation at defensive tackle as Poona Ford and Otito Ogbonniaoffer little.

Article not legit, no Joey Bosacan on the team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

From an article I just read about AFC defenses.

The Chargers defense has a point to prove after finishing in the bottom five among all NFL defensesin most yards allowed, most passing yards allowed, and bottom eight in points allowed per game in 2023.

Unfortunately, there are not many reasons to think a quick turnaround will occur. A healthy Joey Bosacan be a difference-maker, but even the most optimistic IDP manager has lost confidence that he can avoid injuries. Khalil Mack and Tuli productive, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to combine for 26 sacks again. Justin Eboigbe could work his way into a rotation at defensive tackle as Poona Ford and Otito Ogbonniaoffer little.

Article not legit, no Joey Bosacan on the team.

Copy pasta did me wrong. Might be a trick to keep people like me from sharing

 

[King of the Jungle]

From an article I just read about AFC defenses.

The Chargers defense has a point to prove after finishing in the bottom five among all NFL defensesin most yards allowed, most passing yards allowed, and bottom eight in points allowed per game in 2023.

Unfortunately, there are not many reasons to think a quick turnaround will occur. A healthy Joey Bosacan be a difference-maker, but even the most optimistic IDP manager has lost confidence that he can avoid injuries. Khalil Mack and Tuli productive, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to combine for 26 sacks again. Justin Eboigbe could work his way into a rotation at defensive tackle as Poona Ford and Otito Ogbonniaoffer little.

Article not legit, no Joey Bosacan on the team.

Copy pasta did me wrong. Might be a trick to keep people like me from sharing

I am not optimistic enough to think they will be a top ten defense, but feel like they will improve enough to be middle of the pack. That should help will the number of offensive plays they run, hopefully the distribution of run/pass still favors Herbert enough to FF start-able. How efficient the oline is will determine that. I am a HUGE Herbert supporter, but if all works out with defense not being strong/and lower efficiency running, I still worry about his his supporting cast being enough.

 

[Scoresman]

My QB12.

Projecting 388/565 3899 yards. 26/8 TD/INT

Predicting more efficiency, slightly less pass attempts due to coaching style, but I agree this will be interesting to see coaching style vs. team makeup. I'd normally project way fewer pass attempts, but like many, I don't know if they'll be able to sustain it.

Those numbers, combined with his lifetime rushing average per game, would give him 287.04 points over 17 games, making him QB8 last year, but drop him down to QB18 in terms of PPG (16.9).

Yeah, that checks out to what I have. I have him rushing about the same as last year, just projected out to 17 games. He's at 287.9 points in my projections. 16.9 PPG.

But my QBs 8-14 are all withing 10 points of each other, so it's very fluid.