To each their own but personally I'd be embarrassed trying to use passer rating as my hammer argument to determine were a QB really stands as a passer.
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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
What are you using, then?
I rely most of all on my eyes but certainly look at production as well. From that I've watched of him over the years he's extremely good using the middle of the field where I think he makes great use of the threat of his athletic ability to create lanes. He's very poor to me in anticipation and timing and has inconsistent accuracy. And in games they get behind forcing him into obvious passing situations I think he really falls off the mark even more when teams are not as concerned with his running.
I stopped paying attention passer rating probably 20 something years ago. It's why they tried to come up with the equally faulty QBR because everyone knew the passer rating was flawed. I don't pay attention to either of those myself, but I think is someone wants to that's all good but it should never be THE argument to determine who is and who is not a good passer and I certainly would not use to label someone's opinion as absurd especially when the last two years that stat actually supports the opinion you label as absurd.
massraider
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Lamar Jackson led the league in passing TDs; is that not production? There are some other guys who are capable of that, maybe 6 or 8. Certainly not two-thirds of the league.
I think the take that "I'd be embarrassed looking at stats, I just use my eyes instead" is wild.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He was reportedly seeking 230M - google has a few links. It’s very specific. He turned down 290M because he wants a fully guaranteed ~230M
Here’s a pretty solid explainer:
Report: Lamar Jackson declined 6-year, $290 million deal
Jackson wants a fully-guaranteed deal
www.baltimorebeatdown.com
Boston
Footballguy
He was reportedly seeking 230M - google has a few links. It’s very specific. He turned down 290M because he wants a fully guaranteed ~230M
Here’s a pretty solid explainer:
Report: Lamar Jackson declined 6-year, $290 million deal
Jackson wants a fully-guaranteed deal
Playing detective, I wonder if not having an agent means the NFLPA has more influence with him than usual because there is no buffer...if that is the case you can see the insistence on the guaranteed $ because from a Union standpoint if Jackson can duplicate Watson's deal it will definitely open the door to more as it can no longer be seen as a one off.
This.
The BAL organization is trying to get Jackson for not a dollar more than they have to. That's the way this thing goes. Having a buffer allows them saying "We don't think we have to pay him as much because he hasnt been healthy for the last two seasons at crunch time" to be translated into "They love you.....but we're going to have to work on staying healthy".
Boston
Footballguy
That could very well be the case and if it is they better have a plan B in place...there is always two parts to the equation...letting the guy walk/trading him and who you replace him with...screw up the second part and you can set a franchise back a good 5 years...Harbaugh is comfortable enough compared to most coaches but a nice run of 7-10 seasons will get any seat warm.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Isn't Chicago drafting first?
Yenrub
Footballguy
Per Mort's tweet in that article the contract was 290M but "only" 133M was guaranteedHe was reportedly seeking 230M - google has a few links. It’s very specific. He turned down 290M because he wants a fully guaranteed ~230M
Here’s a pretty solid explainer:
Report: Lamar Jackson declined 6-year, $290 million deal
Jackson wants a fully-guaranteed deal
Thought this was a good article by ex-agent Joel Corry who I think explains it well and does not seem to pick sides: Agent's Take: Has Lamar Jackson played final game with Ravens? How team can deal with soon-to-be free agent QB Agent's Take: Has Lamar Jackson played final game with Ravens?
Key part of article and something for people to note is that there is a difference in "guaranteed" vs "fully guaranteed" when comparing contracts:
According to multiple reports, Jackson turned down a six-year contract (presumably a five-year extension offer) worth nearly $250 million with $133 million fully guaranteed before cutting off negotiations shortly before the regular season started. The offer had the league's second-highest average yearly salary surpassing Russell Wilson's $49 million per year. It also had the second-most money ever fully guaranteed in an NFL contract.
The exact amount of the total guarantee wasn't disclosed at the time. It was believed to have at least been on par with Wilson getting 67.3% of his deal guaranteed. This would put Jackson's total guarantee in the $170 million neighborhood at a minimum.
Jackson chose to play on his $23.016 million fifth-year option because he was adamant about getting a fully guaranteed contract
Key part of article and something for people to note is that there is a difference in "guaranteed" vs "fully guaranteed" when comparing contracts:
According to multiple reports, Jackson turned down a six-year contract (presumably a five-year extension offer) worth nearly $250 million with $133 million fully guaranteed before cutting off negotiations shortly before the regular season started. The offer had the league's second-highest average yearly salary surpassing Russell Wilson's $49 million per year. It also had the second-most money ever fully guaranteed in an NFL contract.
The exact amount of the total guarantee wasn't disclosed at the time. It was believed to have at least been on par with Wilson getting 67.3% of his deal guaranteed. This would put Jackson's total guarantee in the $170 million neighborhood at a minimum.
Jackson chose to play on his $23.016 million fifth-year option because he was adamant about getting a fully guaranteed contract
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not if they trade down, but I’m not sure what your point is here if they don’t.
Will they be taking a QB?
Dizzy
Footballguy
Problem is that this is below the guaranteed money that Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, or Russell Wilson received and Lamar Jackson is arguably better than all of them right now (and younger).
Difference is that they all had agents working on their behalf. As someone that has been dragged into more contract negotiations than I ever wanted to be, I know that professionals that are educated in the subtleties of contractual terms and conditions hate, I mean HATE (and often refuse), to negotiate with people that do not come from the same background. Things are tense enough without having to explain the meaning of, and requirements for, the "legalese" in every clause.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Nothing matters other than guaranteed money and these guys know it. I think the Ravens thought they could get a discount with Lamar representing himself. Imagine if he had one of the top cutthroat agents representing him. They did get “lucky” with gaining a bit of leverage due to his injury. The way he started the year it looked like they were going to have to pay him whatever he wanted. But the Ravens would be absolute fools to let him go. They’d have to change the entire offense and likely a lot of personnel. They were a couple capable receivers away from a real SB run. Easy enough fix. Do what Jacksonville did. If I were Lamar I’d start letting it leak. Pay me fair market guaranteed money or let me go. I don’t want to play for a team that doesn’t value me, or only wants me at a discount. I love Baltimore, I’d rather stay, but it’s got to go both ways. Have the community put immense pressure on ownership. Let season ticket holders go nuts. What’s their option at QB? It isn’t in the draft. Not likely in FA as nobody matches their scheme. I still think Lamar holds the juice here
According to the guy who wrote that article that's not accurate on Kyler and Wilson. He mentions that he speculates that Lamar's total guarantee's would be around $170M, which surpassed Kylers. Again there is a difference between guaranteed and fully guaranteed. If this numbers are right Lamar turned down $133M fully guaranteed, $170m guaranteed.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Roman is now out. Probably not a good sign for Lamar's return.
Chaka
Footballguy
Probably doesn't move the needle for anyone involved in the Lamar discussion.
Maybe Roman was holding Lamar back, maybe Roman's offense was masking Lamar's deficiencies.
Maybe this means they part ways with Lamar, maybe it means they have a candidate in mind that could utilize Lamar's strengths better than Roman.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
"Then again, maybe one of us won't."
Chaka
Footballguy
There was one?
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Harbaugh and GM sure made it clear: Lamar will be back. Zero question.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
It’s really weird with Roman because he seems like he really gets the power and value of a running qb and doing things that put the defense on its heels and even had a pretty nice passing attack folded in a couple years ago, but the last two years just can’t seem to get the passing game going at all.
massraider
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The knock I hear against Roman is he uses such tight formations that it instead of putting Lamar in space, it puts him in traffic. They are hoping the new OC spreads the field more.
CalBear
Footballguy
Bumping this post from menobrown dated...[checks]...August 3, 2018 after Jackson played his first preseason game.
Just admit you were wrong, man.
rockaction
Footballguy
I honestly don't know how you can read that and think he's saying that the guy's performance was determinative of his future. He specifically points out context and how other crappy QBs looked good in preseason while Deshaun Watson didn't (Watson then blew up in the regular season).
Really, I don't think that's a good faith reading of what menobrown is saying there at all.
That's kind of creepy.
massraider
Footballguy
Should also be pointed out that IF you wanted to trade Lamar and move on, there is no benefit to saying so.
It would be incredibly dumb to walk out to a press conference, and say, maaaaan, this bonehead doesn't have an agent, that's a problem, and frankly, his mom sucks, not gonna lie....
Well, it is in their hands via tagging him.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I think they would but I’m scratching my head as to who their trading partner would be. Baltimore is the perfect place for Lamar, the whole offense is designed around him.
If the Ravens don’t think he”s worth whatever he is asking what would make another team pay that plus give up multiple draft picks?
I think his injury history, lackluster performance for the past couple of years, his contract demands and the high draft picks needed to acquire him makes difficult to trade.
I guess there might be some desperate teams out there but trading for Lamar seems like a safe bet for a GM to lose his job in a year or two
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Lackluster?
habsfan
Footballguy
Water under the bridge now but you have to wonder if an agent could have helped him see the risk of playing out his deal. He got injured in the pursuit of a guaranteed contract that would give him financial security in case he got injured.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Over the last two seasons, he's 15-12 with 33 TDs and 20 INTs.
Not bad, but we're talking about $250 million here.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Zero questions about the Ravens WANTING Lamar back with this move.
Here is what Ravens GM Decosta said yesterday.
Seems rather adamant, almost insisting.
Have to think Lamar just got some leverage with this move.
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Sigmund Bloom
@SigmundBloom
A simple yes would have sufficed
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Luke Jones
@BaltimoreLuke
Eric DeCosta on if Lamar Jackson will be the Ravens' quarterback in Week 1 of 2023:
"I don't see any reason why he won't be."
Boston
Footballguy
I wasn't a math major but 200% sounds pretty definite that he is staying in Baltimore.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
This year the defense surrendered a full TD, 7 pts MORE per game than the offense generated.
Last year the defense gave up .3 more pts per game and lost every game Lamar did not play.
These are the four games Lamar lost this year.
28 points, 24 points, 23 points, and 42 points, an average of 29.25 points per game. On the year the Ravens gave up 350 points for an average of 20.57 points per game. Obviously those four losses where the defense gave up over 8 points more than the average was on Lamar. Lamar was 8 and 4 as a starter this year and 7 and 5 last year when the defense gave up 323 points on the season or 19 points per game.
In the 5 games HE LOST the defense gave up 28 points per game or 9 points MORE than the average on the season. Once again, OBVIOUSLY those losses are on Lamar.
The thing that separates Lamar from any other NFL QB is his rushing ability, the 4,437 rushing yards and the 24 rushing TDs.
He is a difference maker with his ability to spread out a defense.
Lamar provides a huge rushing advantage, that is the strength he gives any offense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He’s staying there twice.
Yet the guy who has much more of a say in that decision is much more pragmatic:
"Well, it certainly takes two to tango, but I think Lamar and I have a great relationship," DeCosta said. "I think we communicate quite often; we spent some time together today as a matter of fact. We've spoken throughout the season multiple times. These negotiations all happen differently. … I wouldn't characterize the percentages of getting any deal done or how long it's gonna take, except to say that we'll communicate effectively, we'll be as fair as we can be and we'll try to hammer out a deal. Hopefully we can get to that point."
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't really like this argument.
What NFL isn't designed around the quarterback?
Greg Roman is gone too and I doubt the next OC is going to design an offense suited for anyone but the QB, whoever that is.
Chaka
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
The Pats in 2022...
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The Athletic
@TheAthletic
The Ravens say Lamar is their QB.
Baltimore GM Eric DeCosta even says he's "excited" to restart negotiations and wasn’t interested in discussing trading Jackson.
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Quincy Carrier
@Kwen_C
Ravens saw Tyler Huntley fumble that QB sneak last week and finally realized they did not want to be out in these streets.
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
Ravens’ HC John Harbaugh said Lamar Jackson will be involved in the search for the team’s new offensive coordinator.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Fields is stronger and built more like Allen and even he was banged up from running at the end of the year. The shelf life for QBs that run so much is shorter in the NFL. Mahomes is probably the perfect mix, he can run when needed but is a pass first.
Chaka
Footballguy
Of course.
He's their quarterback, right up until he isn't.
I am not saying Lamar is definitely leaving. Baltimore is absolutely his most likely future. Personally, I think he would be foolish to leave such a well run organization.
But words in January mean nothing to August.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
He came from a Pro-Style offense.
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Lamar Jackson
@Lj_era8
Thank you
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Emory Hunt
@FBallGameplan
Lemme just get this out here before folks start wrongly discussing the #Ravens search for a new OC…
Lamar Jackson ran a ‘pro style’ offense in college at Louisville under Bobby Petrino
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Lamar Jackson
@Lj_era8
Thank you
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Emory Hunt
@FBallGameplan
Lemme just get this out here before folks start wrongly discussing the #Ravens search for a new OC…
Lamar Jackson ran a ‘pro style’ offense in college at Louisville under Bobby Petrino
That W/L record isn’t accurate. I think it’s 16-7 or something close to that.
Edit- 14-8 looks like
Chaka
Footballguy
Leaves out the 5 rush TDs & 4 lost fumbles too.
Where he completed 57% of his passes and had more rushing attempts than completions.
If people want to argue he can be a decent passing QB fine, but those guys don't get record setting contracts. What makes him so dangerous is his running, and no team is going to pay him a ton of money to drop back and throw it 40 times per game.
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