Now, maybe teams won't be willing to pay what the 3rd franchise tag would require. If the QB franchise tag this season ends up around $35M, then franchising Jackson a second time in 2024 would cost $42M and franchising him a third time in 2025 would cost at least $61M..
It will cost more then that to use the Exclusive tag on him which is why I just assumed a third tag would never happen. It's going to be $45m estimated to use the exlusive tag on Lamar. That jumps 20% the second time and 44% the third time. So we are taking $45M, $54m and $78m.
You are right that technically teams can tie the players up that extra year but how many times has a second exclusive tag been used? I don't think 3 has ever been used and likely never will on a QB but again technically it exits.
We'll agree to disagree because I do see it as a given for players like we mentioned if they are still playing at their current level and I can't say for sure what the QB pay will be, not sure it's going to go to $100m and have an idea why you are coming up with that estimate but not sure it's going to work out that way or that all contracts would be 5 years, and in some cases the player may want it to be less especially if pay proved to increase at this rate. But I'd use Watson as an example to illustrate you don't need all the teams involved. A lot of teams did not have assets to trade for him and some did not want to spend assets or that money on a player with his baggage so his market was more a few teams then the entire league. This is how it would be if these top of the line QB's made it to FA. Some teams may be priced out, but a market of a few teams is all they will need.I don't think that is a given, especially given the need to escrow all guaranteed money.
I question how easily a number of franchises would find it to put $500M+ into escrow