Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Obviously it counts enough for NO to now trade a valuable pick for him. Do you think they would have done that in May?
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QB Teddy Bridgewater, DET (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Doug B
Footballguy
I think Bridgewater would need a season like Keenum's 2017 to be in position for a Keenum-like contract. Don't think Bridgewater can command that amount in 2019 without significant regular-season play in 2018.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - his overall career has been much better than Keenum's. He was a first round NFL pick and Keenum was an UDFA. Keenum had a pretty good 2017 but he was far from great. Starting caliber QBs are a commodity and they get paid. I feel very confident Bridgewater would see starting QB money on the open market next offseason. That's part of the reason why the Jets traded him away instead of trying to keep him around as a backup QB. He's going to seek starter's money next offseason. He's not going to settle for backup money.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No, but I find it entertaining that people are up in arms over NO trading a 3rd round pick for a backup QB on the last year of his contract (as if they don't have a plan to sign him longer term). Similar to how people were questioning the 49ers.
Or there is the other side where a 3rd round pick is destined to be a bust so it's no big deal.
I expect NO and Teddy have a mutual interest in signing an extension.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I didn't have a problem with the Jimmy G trade (in fact I was a big proponent of it).
I don't have a problem with either side of this deal either really - although I do have some questions about how the Saints will keep Teddy around. A third round pick is valuable but the Saints did get a late round pick back and having a good backup QB is also very valuable to a team that is a legit Super Bowl contender (see. Philadelphia Eagles) probably even more so when your starting QB is 40.
Doug B
Footballguy
Probably not -- but the Saints are still very much gambling right now. By all reason, they overpaid with that 3rd (ask Cobalt if you don't believe me
) Gambling with draft picks is probably cheaper and more palatable in the team building than gambling with salary. 
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Vikings had to pay a first for Bradford when Bridgewater went down for injury, 49ers a 2nd for Jimmy G on the end of his deal last year. A 3rd and getting a 6 back seems pretty damn reasonable for a guy, who if you extend, could be your franchise QB.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Like I said above a good backup QB has value to a Super Bowl contender - and there is a chance they can sign Teddy as a long term option still.Probably not -- but the Saints are still very much gambling right now. By all reason, they overpaid with that 3rd (ask Cobalt if you don't believe me
Doug B
Footballguy
On this point is where evaluators differ the most with this trade. There are some, like Pat Kirwan, Cobalt, and Dr. Octopus, that believe Bridgewater would be doing career suicide by extending with New Orleans for anything less than $22 M/yr or so. There are others that believe it makes a ton of sense for Bridgewater career-wise to sign a short extension for "1B" money (~$12-14M/yr) and then assume the reins of a likely contender in either 2019 or 2020.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That I could kind of see as viable for Teddy, but I don't see how NO could even afford that if they're paying Brees $27-30MM as well. Can they tie up $45MM on the QB position?
Doug B
Footballguy
People get hung up on a 3rd as a "high" pick and a 6th as a "low" pick ... but another way to look at it is that the Saints likely moved from something like pick 93-96 to something like pick 163-166. ~70 slots or so. If neither team has a surprise 2018 season and chalk holds up.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I think NO is at the very worst in a position much like GB was with having to choose between paying Favre or Rodgers as their starting QB at the end of this season. But they didn’t have to pay a 1st rounder for their 1st round quality understudy - that just seems pretty astute and a very good gamble on their part. They’ll have a pretty solid book on Bridgewater by the time the season ends.
Doug B
Footballguy
For one year (2019) -- yes. Brees drops to $23 million in 2019, over half of which is a roster bonus. That means that should Brees ride off into the sunset after the 2018 season, the Saints' cap doesn't suffer. Conversely, should Brees stay in 2019, the team still has an extra $4 million from Brees's 2018 salary to offer Bridgewater.
I haven't laid it all out yet, but the Saints as constructed over the 2018-19 seasons have all of their major starting positions on either rookie contracts or on fresh veteran contracts. 2015 1st rounder G Andrus Peat is on the books for $9.6 million in 2019 -- he'll either take an extension or take a walk, the savings potentially going to Bridgewater. LT Terron Armstead is signed through 2021. RT Ryan Ramczyk through 2020. DE Cameron Jordan through 2020. RB Alvin Kamara and CB Marshon Lattimore through 2020.
Michael Thomas is signed through 2019, but a few local commentators see him as definitely gone after his rookie contract -- that the Saints won't approach Odell Beckham money for Thomas and will let him walk. That's a big reason Tre'Quan Smith was drafted with similar measurables to Thomas. If Thomas walks ... more money available for Bridgewater.
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Doug B
Footballguy
FWIW: one of our local radio guys speculated that Bill Parcells' hands are all over the Bridgewater trade.
Doug B
Footballguy
Something else, too -- Bridgewater can sign a nice contract after the 2018 league year that pays him starter money (north of $20 M/yr) yet has a relatively light cap hit in 2019 itself. That would put the Saints' 2019 cap outlay at the QB position about the same as Green Bay's in 2020 & 2021 (~$33 M).
When Drew Brees signed the first $20 M/yr QB deal in 2012, the cap hit for his first year was $10.4 million.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
People thinking this is a one year rental aren't using logic here. NO already gave up a 1st next year. If you think they're going into the draft in 2019 with no 1st or 3rd and a 40 yr old QB without a plan, you're seriously fooling yourself plain and simple.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
I guess you finally put the bottle down at some point and went to bed. It was about time.
Doug B
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Count me in this line of thinking, too. The Saints just paid a third-rounder for this year's insurance policy.
The Saints D, from what I've been reading, is vastly improved even over last year's six rank in DVOA at Football Outsiders, generally the measure I personally choose to use when statistically evaluating a D. I think they're going for a Super Bowl this year.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Dang. Good work, Doug B. Nice to have a picture of what's going on with the team in detail.
Doug B
Footballguy
All credit to Spotrac.com ... it makes following the salaries, cap hits, and dead-money-if-released much easier to follow.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
If you're Teddy Bridgewater and you're watching Drew Brees performing at a high level and showing minimal signs of decline, if any, why in the world would you have any interest in signing on to hold a clipboard for another year or two rather than testing free agency and likely finding a starting job?
The Saints would be a great landing spot for him if Brees were leaving, but he's not. Makes me wonder where he lands next year.
The Saints would be a great landing spot for him if Brees were leaving, but he's not. Makes me wonder where he lands next year.
Football Jones
Footballguy
The glaring team is Buffalo while Allen develops (or if Allen develops).
Deamon
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't see the Bills starting Allen all season and then signing Bridgewater to start so they can let Allen develop on the bench.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
There's something to be said for learning on the bench, though, especially when you're not ready (& Allen clearly isn't anywhere close despite what he did against the Vikes).
The Bills were a playoff team last season & they're going nowhere with Allen anytime soon.
If I'm the Bills organization, Bridgewater peaks my interest big-time. That way, you have two chances at finding your franchise QB.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I guess my point is Allen shouldn't be starting now.
It's REAL easy to get into bad habits when you're struggling which makes it difficult to get back on track with your development.
It's surely ruined careers before.
It's REAL easy to get into bad habits when you're struggling which makes it difficult to get back on track with your development.
It's surely ruined careers before.
Shawnky
Footballguy
As a Saints fan, I hope you are right. I love watching him play. But, the writing is on the wall. This has been the talk on a couple of Saints boards since last year. We as fans know it's inevitable. Why wouldn't he retire on top if they win it all this year? It makes perfect sense. He'll be 40 before the Superbowl.
matttyl
Footballguy
Not saying that Reggie Bush has any inside knowledge on the situation, but a few months back he stated that if the Saints win it all this year Brees walks away. If they don't, he'll play next year as his last.
Shawnky
Footballguy
That is definitely my take and the opinion of many other Saints fans. Others on this board disagree. I just see him exiting the same as Elway. He'll have 2 rings (hopefully) and his health with those 4 young kids to enjoy.
matttyl
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
And if you assume that's true, if the Saints don't win the Super Bowel and Brees is coming back, I see little reason at all to think Bridgewater will delay his chance of starting by ANOTHER year when he's already worked this hard to come back and had his career delayed this long. He'll test free agency and almost surely have an opportunity to start somewhere.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
This is an insane idea. No team has ever done this in the modern history of the NFL --
- drafts QB in first round
- sits rookie QB on bench with philosophy of having him learn
- abandons "learn on the bench" concept and switches to "learn while playing" concept early in regular season
- rookie QB starts rest of season
- team THEN abandons "learn while playing" concept and acquires veteran QB and switches to "learn on the bench" concept AGAIN.
Seriously, this just doesn't happen. It's crazy talk.
Shawnky
Footballguy
As long as he's getting a paycheck and learning from one of the best .... Why not?
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Just my guess. He'll turn 27 years old late next year. I don't see him committing to holding a clipboard at least until he's 27 and not even having the chance to be a starter again until he's almost 28. Learning is nice and all, and maybe he won't get any starter offers. But I can't imagine he'll be content to hold a clipboard and learn from Brees for another year and hope that Brees would then follow through on his retirement talk.
One way or another, I expect Bridgewater to be a starter in 2019, whether that's on the Saints or elsewhere.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Like I said, my point is Allen shouldn't be starting. Period.
QBs get benched all the time & it's not crazy to think Allen could get benched depending on his development.
In fact, Allen WILL get benched at some point if he continues to struggle.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Zero chance. If negative chance was an option it would be that. He's going to go Manning not Barry. I would say Bus or even Elway but they were not still performing at peak career output, Barry was (Elway was arguably close but I don't want to get into all that). Manning was done, clearly, the Super Bowl was icing, the Broncos weren't giving him another season even if he wanted one. Brees is nowhere near done, if he wins it all this year he's going to try for two.
[scooter]
Footballguy
You are confusing two different things.
It's true that QBs get benched all the time.
What does not happen all the time, and in fact has not happened in the modern history of the NFL, is for a team to name a rookie 1st-round-pick as its permanent starter, then start the rookie for several games, only to then abandon their philosophy and acquire a veteran QB and have that veteran start ahead of the healthy 1st-round-pick the following year.
You are describing a scenario that exists only in fantasy. No team would ever pull such an asinine move.
But feel free to prove me wrong. Name another time that it happened.
Shawnky
Footballguy
As I said, as a Saints fan I hope you are right. But what exactly are you basing this opinion on? Because it's a very big assumption. My whole take is based off Saints insiders and message boards, so I feel it is very legit. Why would he want to go the Peyton route? That makes zero sense to actually retire due to my neck barely hanging onto my body.
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Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I'm too lazy to look it up, but this isn't really a typical situation. Allen didn't get the job because they felt he's ready, he got the job because he was healthy, his competition both sucked and wasn't healthy, and they really had no other options. I'm not saying they would necessarily bench him, but if he plays out this year and they feel that he's still a project that needs some development time, I don't think it's crazy to think they'd bring in a veteran to hold his place warm until he's more prepared.
That said, I don't think Bridgewater will be looking for a situation where he's looking over his shoulder at a guy like that who was drafted to be the team's QB of the future. There will be better opportunities than that for him.
