QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (1 Viewer)

[Big Nate]

He just feels super vanilla going into this season. I've got him at QB16. I could see him maybe finishing a little better. I could see him dropping down to QB20.

FBG has him at #13, Fantasypros #17

He finished #18 in PPG last year. I didn't love Calvin Ridley. But I'm not sure if rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis are better weapons in the short term.

If you're in SF or 2QB, he'll be a rock solid QB2.

Yeah, he has been a bit of a let down since his acclaimed arrival .... but I do think part of his early issues were coaching clusters ... you know the story.
It takes some time to overcome that much taint and trauma. I do see him as still growing as he will be 25 yo this season.
Ridley was a disappointment but I think the "drops" were the main problem in JAX in 2023.

Ranking him QB-10-15 is realistic to me. But more decisively, I have him starting the season slower as BTJr develops and learns.
QB-18-20 for Weeks 1-5 them more like QB8-10 Weeks 10-16
As the season wears on and they want to reduce ETN's carries, more air time to allow the passing game to grow. They are not a deep playoff team, maybe barely contenting for a spot.
Houston taking the division, JAX maybe 9-8 style season.
I can image him having > 525 passing attempts, but it will be up to the WR/TE/RB's to do something with them IMO.

The drops were indeed rough. I think 3 of his INTs went right through Tank's hands and into the defender. I saw a Ridley video of him dropping 10+ passes and like 7-8 were in the end zone.

I think he's due for a bounce back. Could end up as a low QB1 (QB 12) if he can be consistent. He had a decent stretch going mid-season before he got injured. He was dealing with 2 different injuries I believe, including a knee issue that hammered his mobility. Currently in a buy opportunity if you need a QB and don't want to spend for the high end QB1s.

 

[Biabreakable]

Meh.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I saw a Ridley video of him dropping 10+ passes and like 7-8 were in the end zone.

Yep - including the back breaker where he somehow couldn’t get 2 feet down due to the bobble when he had 4 steps at the back of the end zone. Just so bad.

 

[warpig33]

I’m a jags fan and even I don’t think Lawrence is a difference maker. He’s an average NFL QB. Dare I say…game manager. I just see him as a “run the play called” kinda guy and not an “improviser” that has some of the “WOW!” plays. As far as value…I wouldn’t give up a first rounder…maybe a second…not that anyone asked.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence agrees to terms on five-year, $275 million contract extension

Guess who's picking up the check at Waffle House tonight.

 

[Insein]

Ooh boy

 

[Big Nate]

Ooh boy

This is going to get good.

I'm pulling for T-Law. Hopefully his receivers do better this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence agrees to terms on five-year, $275 million contract extension

Guess who's picking up the check at Waffle House tonight.

Apparently the Jags believe TLaw is a much better QB than FF shareholders.

I’m with the Jags.

 

[Big Nate]

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence agrees to terms on five-year, $275 million contract extension

Guess who's picking up the check at Waffle House tonight.

Apparently the Jags believe TLaw is a much better QB than FF shareholders.

I’m with the Jags.

"We" get so caught up in instant gratification and everyone has to be elite right away or the suck. Same thing with Tua and many other QBs.

Everyone wants the QBs gone if they aren't Mahomes or Brady etc. Some can't wait to get rid of a good QB only to then wait years to find another one.

For those that want to get rid of T-Law where you getting this magical elite unicorn QB from? I think T-Law is a better QB than what many think and he was let down by his offense/receivers at times last year.

No doubt he still has to work on parts of his game - he's not elite and I'm sure he will say the same thing. He's not even 25 yet - lets give him some more time to keep improving. I think he can if the receivers play better this year and T-Law continues to improve and reduced the # of turnovers.

 

[BobbyLayne]

• 1x Pro Bowler
• 20-30 record
• 11,770 passing yards
• 58 touchdowns
• 39 interceptions
• 33 fumbles
• 85.0 rating
• 6 game winning drives
• 1-1 playoff record

 

[eighsse2]

• 1x Pro Bowler
• 20-30 record
• 11,770 passing yards
• 58 touchdowns
• 39 interceptions
• 33 fumbles
• 85.0 rating
• 6 game winning drives
• 1-1 playoff record
• Quarter-billionaire

Completed your list!

 

[travdogg]

Feels like a potentially huge mistake, should have waited another year, and seen if he can take the next step. This feels premature for a guy who hasn't shown himself to be a great QB yet.

There is a very strong chance this goes the same as the last time a Doug Pedersen coached QB signed a monster extension, except Wentz had shown more through 3 seasons.

 

[dickey moe]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

 

[Faust]

Will Trevor Lawrence's extension lead to success for Jaguars?

 

[massraider]

It was an extension, so they get him for this year and next, then the extension kicks in.

There's a really good chance his cap numbers are really affordable for at least the next 4 years. His cap numbers are 11.7 mil and 25.7 next year. I am sure the prorated signing bonus will add 5 mil or so to those numbers, but still. Call it a 7 year deal for 312-315 mill.

$44 mill average over those 7 years.

If they can win with him, it's a steal, because people will be making 60 mil per year before his extension kicks in

 

[travdogg]

• 1x Pro Bowler
• 20-30 record
• 11,770 passing yards
• 58 touchdowns
• 39 interceptions
• 33 fumbles
• 85.0 rating
• 6 game winning drives
• 1-1 playoff record

21-23 record
9,935 passing yards
62 TDs
36 INTs
22 fumbles
88.8 rating
8 game winning drives
1-1 playoff record

That's the resume of the 1st 3 years of Marcus Mariota. Or:

1 pro bowl
17-27 record
9,707 passing yards
67 TDs
25 INTs
22 fumbles
95.1 passer rating
8 game winning drives

That's the last 3 seasons of Russell Wilson.

Point being, Lawrence's resume is completely unimpressive to date, and this extension is 100% a bet on a player who hasn't shown himself to exist yet. If Lawrence doesn't take a big step forward, I fully expect Pederson, Baalke etc. to be unemployed in a year or 2.

 

[Big Nate]

Check out the EPA lost to dropped passed. This is what I was talking about for Tlaw.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-qb-...ence-earned-new-contract-but-needs-more-help/

https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/j6Vr3-epa-lost-to-dropped-passes-2023-745x1024.png

 

[Faust]

Scott Barrett
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage

x.com

x.com

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It was an extension, so they get him for this year and next, then the extension kicks in.

There's a really good chance his cap numbers are really affordable for at least the next 4 years. His cap numbers are 11.7 mil and 25.7 next year. I am sure the prorated signing bonus will add 5 mil or so to those numbers, but still. Call it a 7 year deal for 312-315 mill.

$44 mill average over those 7 years.

If they can win with him, it's a steal, because people will be making 60 mil per year before his extension kicks in

Trevor will play for Year 4 of his rookie deal in 2024
In 2025, this extension kicks in and takes place or in lieu of the 5th year option, that goes away
Trevor also will immediately cash the signing bonus of $37.5M from Jacksonville, that gets loaded right into his bank account
That's how I understand it

-But I can see the sites have him now a Jaguar until 2030 so I must be off on something here.
I thought the 5th year option was a leverage tool for teams to extend earlier vs later like Tua in Miami

Would seem like there is a potential downside to being a 1st rd pick if you must honor the 5th year option

 

[osubuckeyeman]

This is a good move for the Jags. I still think T-Law is who we thought he was. I also agree with the crowd that we all want instant success in players, and sometimes, it takes time. If I were a Jags fan, I would be pretty happy with this news.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is a good move for the Jags. I still think T-Law is who we thought he was. I also agree with the crowd that we all want instant success in players, and sometimes, it takes time. If I were a Jags fan, I would be pretty happy with this news.

He’s actually almost a full year younger than Jordan Love. Kinda wild to think of that.

 

[travdogg]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

I think there is a wide difference between shoveling dirt on a dude's grave, being mediocre, and being a generational talent. I don't think the Jags had to make this move at all, they could have waited a year and sure maybe it costs a little more, but you'd have more evidence to go by.

This is a good move for the Jags. I still think T-Law is who we thought he was. I also agree with the crowd that we all want instant success in players, and sometimes, it takes time. If I were a Jags fan, I would be pretty happy with this news.

He’s actually almost a full year younger than Jordan Love. Kinda wild to think of that.

Love played better last year than Lawrence ever has. I say that as someone who was extremely skeptical of Love both when he was picked and going into last season. If I'm Jordan Love's agent, this Lawrence contract is lower than anything I'd settle for. Same goes for Tua or Purdy, all of whom have shown more high-end play than Lawrence has.

I don't really understand why Lawrence is who we thought he was. He does some nice things. He makes some impressive throws, he avoids sacks, and is generally a good decision maker. He's also not particularly accurate, and is too conservative, especially for a guy with his arm. He's a really frustrating player to watch. It gets brought up that his supporting cast has sometimes let him down, but I've found that goes both ways, and pretty equally. He hasn't shown himself to be a talent elevator yet.

I'm not saying Lawrence is a bad QB. I'm saying he has yet to show he's a great one, or even really good one. I can't help but feel Lawrence is getting too much of a break for being a #1 overall pick (and beloved prospect) and because Wilson/Lance bombed so spectacularly that he looks so much better in comparison.

 

[Ray_T]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

I think there is a wide difference between shoveling dirt on a dude's grave, being mediocre, and being a generational talent. I don't think the Jags had to make this move at all, they could have waited a year and sure maybe it costs a little more, but you'd have more evidence to go by.

This is a good move for the Jags. I still think T-Law is who we thought he was. I also agree with the crowd that we all want instant success in players, and sometimes, it takes time. If I were a Jags fan, I would be pretty happy with this news.

He’s actually almost a full year younger than Jordan Love. Kinda wild to think of that.

Love played better last year than Lawrence ever has. I say that as someone who was extremely skeptical of Love both when he was picked and going into last season. If I'm Jordan Love's agent, this Lawrence contract is lower than anything I'd settle for. Same goes for Tua or Purdy, all of whom have shown more high-end play than Lawrence has.

I don't really understand why Lawrence is who we thought he was. He does some nice things. He makes some impressive throws, he avoids sacks, and is generally a good decision maker. He's also not particularly accurate, and is too conservative, especially for a guy with his arm. He's a really frustrating player to watch. It gets brought up that his supporting cast has sometimes let him down, but I've found that goes both ways, and pretty equally. He hasn't shown himself to be a talent elevator yet.

I'm not saying Lawrence is a bad QB. I'm saying he has yet to show he's a great one, or even really good one. I can't help but feel Lawrence is getting too much of a break for being a #1 overall pick (and beloved prospect) and because Wilson/Lance bombed so spectacularly that he looks so much better in comparison.

sometimes this is also a function of coaching. in year 1 he was part of that trainwreck of a season. year 2 they were likely deprogramming all the bad things he picked up in year 1.

I do agree, he makes a lot of plays, but he just hasnt been able to put it together for more than a 2 or 3 game stretch (for the most part) but consistency usually comes with age and experience so I am still hopeful for him.

 

[dickey moe]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

Not shoveling dirt on his grave. He's not Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz. He's just "ok."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

Not shoveling dirt on his grave. He's not Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz. He's just "ok."

I think he has the potential to be much better than “ok”, but the FF community seems to be off of him already.

IMO that’s very premature.

 

[TheWinz]

I like digging into stats, so here's one for Trevor...
He's the only QB over the last 2 years to throw at least 4K yds each year, have at least 65.6% pass completion rate each year, and less than 25 INT's total

 

[mrfrood]

I think there is either a lot of hate towards him or "meh" towards him. He started slow and then had like a four week stretch of beastness. I think he had a lot of bad luck this past year with drops and injuries (after that four week beast stretch). I think there is more positives heading into this year than last year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think there is either a lot of hate towards him or "meh" towards him. He started slow and then had like a four week stretch of beastness. I think he had a lot of bad luck this past year with drops and injuries (after that four week beast stretch). I think there is more positives heading into this year than last year.

Hell hath no fury like a FF shareholder scorned.

 

[mrfrood]

I think there is either a lot of hate towards him or "meh" towards him. He started slow and then had like a four week stretch of beastness. I think he had a lot of bad luck this past year with drops and injuries (after that four week beast stretch). I think there is more positives heading into this year than last year.

Hell hath no fury like a FF shareholder scorned.

True. I will say I had him in redraft last year and to some extent he did let me down, but I did trade for him in my dynasty league this off-season. I am not letting last year cloud my judgment of him.

 

[TheWinz]

I think there is either a lot of hate towards him or "meh" towards him. He started slow and then had like a four week stretch of beastness. I think he had a lot of bad luck this past year with drops and injuries (after that four week beast stretch). I think there is more positives heading into this year than last year.

Actually, his beastness stretch was 3 games long
For his first 9 games, his best finish was QB10, and was QB18 during this time
For his next 3 games, he was QB1, with finishes of QB1, QB7, and QB5
For his last 4 games, his best finish was QB12, and was QB18 during this time

Would not want him as my QB1 in 2024, but would like him as my backup.

 

[a_troll00]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

On the other hand, Jax likely got him at a discount for extending him this year. If they had waited, they could possibly be paying at the highest end of the market plus salary inflation for 2024 and 2025. They clearly believe in his talent.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

On the other hand, Jax likely got him at a discount for extending him this year. If they had waited, the my could possibly be paying at the highest end of the market plus salary inflation for 2024 and 2025. They clearly believe in his talent.

I'm not a huge Lawrence fan, but the way new contracts have been going up and up this qualifies as an early bird special.

 

[Gruden's Keyboard]

The people saying Trevor Lawrence is being overpaid obviously are not factoring in his dreamy blonde hair and piercing baby blues.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

"Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract"
The Ministry disagrees and would like to enter into evidence Exhibit "A"

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

You go down 27-0 in a Playoff game, he climbs out of it and wins the game, he had a clown for a head coach his rookie season
He plays on a traditional loser, let's not lose sight of how the deck has been stacked against him thus far.
And I understand he doesn't deserve the money but they said Tua didn't either back when it was $30-$35M to extend him
That price tag is on the verge of doubling after this last one by Lawrence.

-My larger point is we might look back in a couple years and think the Jaguars were smart to extend when they did
Tua was paid $4M last year, that's not a typo.
Lawrence was set to make $6M on the final year of his Rookie Deal, yes there was a potential 5th year option but this man has won a Playoff game already
His agent likely would not have allowed him to take the field, he didn't have any concussion issues like Tua

I don't think Jax had the leverage you feel they did. They also are not a franchise that can really toy with their QB position
Justin Herbert was extended, Lawrence beat Herbert in the Playoffs

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

On the other hand, Jax likely got him at a discount for extending him this year. If they had waited, the my could possibly be paying at the highest end of the market plus salary inflation for 2024 and 2025. They clearly believe in his talent.

I'm not a huge Lawrence fan, but the way new contracts have been going up and up this qualifies as an early bird special.

They got him before Dak & Purdy got their bags. Smart move.

 

[massraider]

I think he has the potential to be much better than “ok”, but the FF community seems to be off of him already.

IMO that’s very premature.

They got him before Dak & Purdy got their bags. Smart move.

Here's Trevor's cap hits:

He's going to have cap hits like a WR2 for the next few years. He's got game manager cap hits for the next 4 years. If he is close to Pro Bowl level, that's a major steal.

 

[Yenrub]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

Not shoveling dirt on his grave. He's not Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz. He's just "ok."

Surprisingly his career completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating are identical to Daniel Jones'.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

Not shoveling dirt on his grave. He's not Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz. He's just "ok."

Surprisingly his career completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating are identical to Daniel Jones'.

You've gotta remember that 1/3 of TLaw's stats come from the Urban Meyer debacle. That's a lot to overcome!

 

[Yenrub]

Fortunate time in history to be a mediocre NFL QB.

Cmon. Lawrence was seen as a “generational talent” what, 3 years ago?

Now he’s “mediocre”?

Color me skeptical. Maybe let the dude cook a little before shoveling dirt on his grave.

Not shoveling dirt on his grave. He's not Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz. He's just "ok."

Surprisingly his career completion percentage, yards per attempt and QB rating are identical to Daniel Jones'.

You've gotta remember that 1/3 of TLaw's stats come from the Urban Meyer debacle. That's a lot to overcome!

Pat Shurmur & Joe Judge say hi

 

[Terpman22]

This contract just confuses me to no end. There was no need to do this yet. You had his fourth season at the very least to find out what you really have in Lawrence. Then you had the fifth year extension as well.

Lawrence proved absolutely nothing to get this contract, and QB contracts are already out of hand as it is.

There were issues last year between injuries, the OC not really knowing how to utilize the receivers, etc. This would have been a great season to find out what the Jags truly have in Lawrence.

On the other hand, Jax likely got him at a discount for extending him this year. If they had waited, the my could possibly be paying at the highest end of the market plus salary inflation for 2024 and 2025. They clearly believe in his talent.

I'm not a huge Lawrence fan, but the way new contracts have been going up and up this qualifies as an early bird special.

They got him before Dak & Purdy got their bags. Smart move.

Add Love and Tua into this mix as well. The earlier the better. The way the salary cap keeps going up, you don't really truly hamstring your franchise much longer than 2 years max at this point if the guy you extend turns out to be a bust

Example: Wentz, Carson

 

[MTskibum]

Scott Barrett
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage

x.com

x.com

Good thing they went out and got Gabe Davis to fix that problem.

 

[Terpman22]

Scott Barrett
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage

x.com

x.com

Good thing they went out and got Gabe Davis to fix that problem.

+ Brian Thomas

 

[MTskibum]

Scott Barrett
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage

x.com

x.com

Good thing they went out and got Gabe Davis to fix that problem.

+ Brian Thomas

My post was funnier.

 

[Big Nate]

Scott Barrett
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.

On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)

Trevor Lawrence ranked:

9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage

x.com

x.com

Good thing they went out and got Gabe Davis to fix that problem.

He will only drop half the passes Ridley did so its a win.

 

[Faust]

Trevor Lawrence, fresh off $275M extension, says Jaguars are 'headed in right direction'

 

[Faust]

Have the Jaguars surrounded Trevor Lawrence with enough talent for the career year they need from him?

 

[Faust]

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence 'really excited' for 2024 with 'dynamic group of pass catchers'

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters

“Trevor Lawrence continued a strong week of practice Tuesday, completing 14 of 17 passes across 11-on-11 and seven-on-seven work. He had a touchdown pass to Etienne in seven on seven and a touchdown pass to running back Tank Bigsby in 11-on-11. Lawrence for the week has not thrown an interception and has completed 42 of 52 passes for eight touchdowns, with six of those touchdowns coming in Tuesday's practice.”

x.com

x.com