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QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (1 Viewer)

NFL Network's James Palmer reports the Jaguars are being "cautious" with Trevor Lawrence, who has a hamstring injury. 

In May, the team was being cautious with their prized No. 1 overall pick as he recovered from surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. Now he's dealing with a hamstring issue. Palmer said Lawrence would be able to suit up and play in a game. The team doesn't want to risk Lawrence aggravating the injury and missing valuable minicamp reps. “It’s a little frustrating not being able to go full speed," Lawrence said Monday. Hopefully Lawrence can enter next month's training camp at full health. He's being drafted as the 15th quarterback off the draft board. 

SOURCE: James Palmer on Twitter 

Jun 14, 2021, 12:05 PM ET
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Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer said Trevor Lawrence "isn't ready yet, but he doesn't have to be ready yet."

The coy quotes about Lawrence continue coming out of Jacksonville. Two weeks ago, passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said the Jaguars weren't "in position" to name a starting quarterback two months after taking Lawrence with the first pick in the 2021 draft.  "We got a long training camp coming up. He's probably advanced maybe a little quicker than we would've thought, so which was a positive," Meyer said this week. "One thing that we worked on — when we made a decision that Trevor was going to be our No. 1 pick, we went from the evaluation stage to the preparation stage. And that means that I want to see — I can't remember the exact date, but we started installing the playbook with him well before the draft. So you can see the retention, he's got a really good work ethic and he's progressed very well." There remains almost no universe in which Lawrence isn't under center for the Jaguars in their Week 1 game against Houston. 

SOURCE: 247sports.com 

Jun 25, 2021, 11:28 AM ET
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The headline on the Lawrence story is misleading. The staff  say he’s progressed faster than they expected, that they started installing the playbook with Lawrence before the draft and Lawrence has been picking it up really quickly. It’s a positive story about Lawrence, he’s just saying that there is still preparation he needs to make for the season. 

 
Teezee said:
I think I’m the only human on the planet that thinks Trevor Lawrence is a bust. 
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Yup. Sometimes it takes being alone in that corner and ready to fight all comers to find out you're a man, and not part of the machine.

Or you're simply wrong and get badly beaten for no good reason at all, but you get the picture. ;)

 
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I’m curious to know from people who are looking at this from a talent evaluation standpoint rather than fantasy, what are his skillsets or abilities that make you think he will not bust? Bc nobody can tell me what he does well besides the casual size, arm, accuracy angle.

 
Teezee said:
I’m curious to know from people who are looking at this from a talent evaluation standpoint rather than fantasy, what are his skillsets or abilities that make you think he will not bust? Bc nobody can tell me what he does well besides the casual size, arm, accuracy angle.
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If we are specifically talking about things other than size, arm, accuracy;

#1 HS QB Recruit

Immediate freshman standout at Clemson

Wins the college FB Championship his freshman year.. only lost 2 games his entire college career, both of which came in the CFB playoffs.

He has "it" as a player on the field and as a leader of men.

He improved every single year in CFB from a statistical standpoint (Freshman -> Sophomore -> Junior) in metrics that indicate NFL success as a QB; completion percentage, passing yards per game, QB rating, passing yards per attempt.  

He improved his statistical numbers from his sophomore year to his Junior year despite losing his best offensive receiving weapons; Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, as well as only 1 returning starter on the offensive line.

He has fantastic field vision; he progresses quickly through his reads, he's not a first read QB, and often moves to his second/third reads. 

He knows when a play is breaking down, when a pocket is collapsing, and has the capability of using his legs to pick up yards or escape the pocket.

He played, performed and starred at the highest levels of CFB, in the biggest games.

What is it that you don't like about him?

 
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Jaguars signed No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence to a four-year, $36.8 million contract. 

Lawrence's deal includes $24.1 million in guaranteed money and the standard fifth-year option, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Though Jacksonville's coaching staff has refused to name Lawrence their Week 1 starter, he'll certainly be under center when the Jags open the season against the lowly Texans. Lawrence in his final collegiate season threw 24 TD passes, six fewer than his average of 30 passing scores per year. Nine QBs had a better adjusted yards per attempt than Lawrence, including Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. Lawrence was 12th in passer efficiency rating in 2020, miles behind Jones and Wilson, and a hair behind Fields. He should have decent rushing upside this year; in his final two years at Clemson, Lawrence averaged 6.8 rushing attempts per game. 

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Jul 5, 2021, 11:05 AM ET
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Faust said:
Jaguars signed No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence to a four-year, $36.8 million contract. 

Lawrence's deal includes $24.1 million in guaranteed money and the standard fifth-year option, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. 
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Owners gotta love that new rookie wage scale.

On July 30, 2010, Sam Bradford signed a six-year, $78 million deal, which had $50 million of guarantees and a maximum value of $86 million
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Teezee said:
I’m curious to know from people who are looking at this from a talent evaluation standpoint rather than fantasy, what are his skillsets or abilities that make you think he will not bust? Bc nobody can tell me what he does well besides the casual size, arm, accuracy angle.
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There is a chance that he busts or is only average and doesn’t live up to the hype.  He seems like he is going to be good though.  It’s just a matter of how good in my view.  

 
Teezee said:
 what he does well besides the casual size, arm, accuracy angle.
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First of all, this is an odd way to look at it because all of those things seem pretty important and are the building blocks for successful quarterbacks - but on top of that he's very athletic (can gain yards with his legs), has shown an ability to run a pro style offense and seems to have the necessary intangibles like leadership and smarts.

Obviously great prospects have busted before - but why don't you list the factors you think leads to him being a bust?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
First of all, this is an odd way to look at it because all of those things seem pretty important and are the building blocks for successful quarterbacks - but on top of that he's very athletic (can gain yards with his legs), has shown an ability to run a pro style offense and seems to have the necessary intangibles like leadership and smarts.

Obviously great prospects have busted before - but why don't you list the factors you think leads to him being a bust?
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The general fantasy community is a reactive and impressionable demographic. It is very reliant on media and outside influence. Before the mainstream media starts creating the narrative, I wanted to get out in front of it in regards to Trevor.

Trevor has many things going for him which led him to where he is now, the no.1 pick in the NFL Draft. Many of those things have already been regurgitated by some, bc in all honesty, it is of someone else's opinion being circulated on the internet. And they all say the same things - can't miss, winner, numbers/statistics, has everything you want in a leader, accurate, ideal size, big arm, mobile. While some of those things are important, the majority of it is not. 

Statistics for me, gets my attention. You need to have good stats to stand out. So the counting stats, the percentages, the wins... all those things matter. BUT they do not tell the whole story, it never really does or else talent evaluators wouldn't be needed and teams would just draft from a list of who accomplished the most or accrued the most numbers. So while the metrics and numbers are nice, we have to look beyond those things below the surface. For me and most talent evaluators, the hardest thing to do is to evaluate players coming from notoriously winning environments. The reason being is, a team sport that is so reliant of your peers and the players next to you in the field, that it often gets lost in translation. Not all touchdowns are the same. Not all yards are created equally. Not all success is interpreted correctly. That is why you have to look at the tape, the bird never lies. 

I feel like everyone knows the good about Trevor, so I won't go too much into that. But there seems to be very little said about the things we don't know about him.

- How well will he handle adversity? (Will he block negative things out or will he Carson Wentz you?)

- How does he look when he doesn't have an optimal environment of talent around him? (This is the key bc he's always had a plethora of talent around him at Clemson.)

- What was the play called and what were the primary and secondary reads?

- Where is the ball placement in regards to the window, the receiver and the defense?

- Mental toughness? (How quickly does he rebound from a loss or failure?)

- How well does he improvise when things break down?

- Passion?

I didn't spend a whole of time on watching all of his tape, but I saw enough. I saw a lot of his weaknesses like accuracy and tight windows being camoflauged by having great talent around him. Receivers can mask a lot of ducks and whoopsies that turn into first downs and touchdowns. I counted about a dozen throws that were completions that aren't completions in the NFL. Anticipation is the most overlooked attribute when evaluating QBs. His anticipation is middle of the road at best as of right now. I saw much better anticipation from Mac Jones and Trey Lance. The thing is when you have dogs at receiver you don't really need to anticipate bc they will be there. But when he absolutely needed to, he didn't really impress often staying safe or throwing the check down or into the flat. I need more. 

I also want to note that the vast majority of his success through the air was on the primary read. That is the luxury of having great surroundings. This is a red flag. Now I'm not saying I didn't see secondary read completions, bc he did have some. But the quality of those completions were diluted bc instead of pushing the ball up the field to his second read, he would often chicken out and throw to the flat to Etienne. I didn't see much success when aggressive risk down the field was needed or a crowded window of defenders. 

His feet are okay. It's always the first thing I look at. They need work but he can get better in that area. Without nimble feet, you have nothing, in any sport really. No glaring weakness but wasn't enamored either.

I also noticed a lot of his success were accrued off of screens. If somebody wants to look that up I'd be interested in knowing how many of his completions and yards were off screens. This is why college numbers are suppressed when transitioning into the NFL.

While I don't want to put players in a box and say,"if you don't do this this way, you can't be successful," I am a little concerned about his possible lack of passion for the game. In regards to the things between the ears you have to be very careful bc people can change and what you currently see might not be the same down the road. You have to give room for error and improvement when it comes to a person's evolution. But as someone who holds a lot of weight in the mental aspects of a player, his introverted nature worries me a little.

I'm not saying he will be a bust on the scale of Jemarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf and the like. Maybe more so on the level of an Alex Smith or Jared Goff. Guys that are serviceable but was obviously not the best quarterback taken in his draft. I think there will be two QBs in Trevor's draft that will end up being better in the end. But the "generational talent" being thrown around, I just don't see it.

 
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CletiusMaximus said:
Owners gotta love that new rookie wage scale.
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Lions had terrible timing for their 0-16 season. Paid big time to draft Stafford (2009) and Suh (2010), then Calvin came off his rookie deal.

________________

How is Lawrence as a runner? Just curious how people view this bc for a redraft manager, I’m generally only interested in dual threat rookie QBs like Hurts last year (tho obviously Herbert was amazing.)

Just asking bc I kind of am only thinking about stashing Fields/Lance to see if one takes over before the byes hit. Then I realized Trevor’s last full season (2019) he exceeded Fields (sumtin like 550 in 15G v 485 in 14G.) Any guesses on whether Meyers will allow that, or are we looking at a Joe Burrows type rookie year (hopefully sans injury)?

 
BobbyLayne said:
Lions had terrible timing for their 0-16 season. Paid big time to draft Stafford (2009) and Suh (2010), then Calvin came off his rookie deal.

________________

How is Lawrence as a runner? Just curious how people view this bc for a redraft manager, I’m generally only interested in dual threat rookie QBs like Hurts last year (tho obviously Herbert was amazing.)

Just asking bc I kind of am only thinking about stashing Fields/Lance to see if one takes over before the byes hit. Then I realized Trevor’s last full season (2019) he exceeded Fields (sumtin like 550 in 15G v 485 in 14G.) Any guesses on whether Meyers will allow that, or are we looking at a Joe Burrows type rookie year (hopefully sans injury)?
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Trevor has wheels and he's very capable of performing some designed QB runs.

He will navigate a collapsing pocket and if he sees space to run, he's not afraid to take off and make a play.

As far as redraft goes, all three QB's - TLaw, Lance Fields -> they will all have similar ceilings of what they could achieve on a weekly scoring basis, the only difference is that you are getting a safer floor from a week to week with TLaw and you're guaranteed to have a week 1 starter in TLaw.

 
For clarity my thought is drafting a rookie QB to backup the QB 10-12 off the board (presuming Rodgers/Hurts goes after Herbert 7-9 so we’re talking Brady Staff Tannehill Burrow)

 
It's only the first few days of Training Camp but he's absolutely lighting it up and looks phenomenal.

He doesn't look like a rookie out there and he's everything that they've expected him to be as per beat writers.

 
Jaguars Training Camp Notebook, Day 2: Lawrence Elevates His Game, Special Guests and More

Excerpt:

Trevor Lawrence looks even better on Day 2

Trevor Lawrence got off to a fantastic start to his first NFL training camp on Wednesday. It was a toned-down practice to an extent, but Lawrence made several tight-window throws that caught the eye. But that doesn't come close to comparing to what Lawrence put onto the practice field on Thursday, with the No. 1 overall pick elevating his game and testing the defense repeatedly with his mobility and big arm.

There are still no pads on, of course, and defensive backs aren't allowed to be completely physical, but anyone who saw Lawrence uncork dime after dime on Thursday knows it may not have mattered on any of his throws outside of potentially a deep attempt to Marvin Jones Jr. that wasn't hauled in. 

Lawrence was at his best throwing near the sideline and across the middle of the field. He hit DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault each for big gains on strikes across the middle of the field that hit each perfectly in stride. The throw to Shenault came with the defender within an arm's reach in pursuit and arrived with serious heat on it. Lawrence also found Jones over the middle in tight coverage for a completion that would undoubtedly have a margin of error of zero considering the coverage.

Lawrence's two best throws of the day were his two deep shots down the sideline. He hit Jones perfectly in stride for a 45-yard touchdown, leading Jones into the end zone and in-bounds. Jones had beat Luq Barcoo and was open by a few steps, but it was still a great pass in terms of accuracy and timing. 

The throw to Shenault was even better. Shenault burst through the defense near the right sideline and found space to pull away from two defensive backs. Lawrence floated the ball perfectly in stride to Shenault over each defender, giving him room in-bounds to secure the catch. 

Overall, Lawrence just impressed time and time again. He is the most mobile of the team's quarterbacks and looks as comfortable throwing from outside the pocket as in it. There is also a sizeable difference in terms of how quick he is processing plays and pulling the trigger. It is worth noting that corners can't break on the ball and likely would have at least attempted to on some of the passes otherwise, but Lawrence was simply on the money on each attempt regardless.

Again, Lawrence will have his down moments as a rookie. He will take bad sacks and likely even throw a camp interception at some point. His first pass on Thursday was even batted down at the line by Dawuane Smoot. 

But through two days, Lawrence has elevated his game and put forth the best practice performances a Jaguars' quarterback has had during my three years on the beat. 
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