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QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (7 Viewers)

Love this guy, blue chip intangibles. I agree with what's been said, this organization knows their player! A tiny market, not a lot of endorsement opportunities, seems they often have to overpay FAs. But a football town nonetheless, I've seen him when he's on. Quick to diagnose, precisely where & when looked easy.
 
I loaded up on him last year and was severely disappointed. He had 4 games over 20 points all year all they all occurred from Week 11 to 14 after he already submarined many of my teams with constant disappointment.

First 8 weeks:

17.4, 7.24, 15.36, 16.48, 12.7, 15.74, 18.06, 15.68


Then he got knocked out of the SF game Week 10 after only scoring 3.1 immediately coming off his Week 9 bye week. Owning this guy was miserable. Based on those stats above, you'd think I was starting Sam Darnold or Gardner-Minshew. Traded him for Kyler Murray and then promptly goes off for a crazy 4 game stretch coming off an injury Week 11-14:

32.18, 25.56, 24.12, 20.38
 
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BIRDGANG52 said:
I loaded up on him last year and was severely disappointed. He had 4 games over 20 points all year all they all occurred from Week 11 to 14 after he already submarined many of my teams with constant disappointment.

First 8 weeks:

17.4, 7.24, 15.36, 16.48, 12.7, 15.74, 18.06, 15.68


Then he got knocked out of the SF game Week 10 after only scoring 3.1 immediately coming off his Week 9 bye week. Owning this guy was miserable. Based on those stats above, you'd think I was starting Sam Darnold or Gardner-Minshew. Traded him for Kyler Murray and then promptly goes off for a crazy 4 game stretch coming off an injury Week 11-14:

32.18, 25.56, 24.12, 20.38
Click to expand...
He really struggled early on and seemed to improve when Zay Jones came back.
 
Warren Sharp
two wild stats about a talented QB:

Trevor Lawrence is 1-18 when his defense doesn’t record a takeaway

1-18 (.053)!!!

WORST record for any QB

Lawrence has also LOST 21 fumbles the last 3 seasons

WORST in the NFL

(no other QB even has 15, let alone over 20)

MUST fix this
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Faust said:
Warren Sharp
two wild stats about a talented QB:

Trevor Lawrence is 1-18 when his defense doesn’t record a takeaway

1-18 (.053)!!!

WORST record for any QB

Lawrence has also LOST 21 fumbles the last 3 seasons

WORST in the NFL

(no other QB even has 15, let alone over 20)

MUST fix this
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
Click to expand...
Not accurate statement here I believe!

How much of that can be attributed to the Urban Meyer colossal disaster of HC his rookie year?

Sorry but I look at that data he has 13 fumbles and only 6 lost in his 3 seasons.
Maybe Warren Sapp had a few too many hits to his head to count?
 
This guy...in one league I waited on QB and ended up with TLaw as my backup. After 2 weeks he's behind in points to Minshew, Stafford, Watson, D. Jones, Levis (!), Nix (!!), and Brissett, and gimpy Cousins will pass him tomorrow. :mad:

I hate spending FAAB on a backup QB, but it's a short-bench league and both Carr and Darnold are still available, so I think I will. grrrrr I thought with his hot finish to last year and being his second year with Pederson he would be decent at least. He's 29th in scoring in this league. I might as well carry no backup, which I guess I could consider also.
 
I mean, to be fair, the plan going into the game was to give 100% of the touches to Evan Engram and Tank Bigsby, so all things considered, he did ok

:bored:
 
Chicken or the egg- coaching or Lawrence. I think it’s coaching- they all gotta go. But also partly him. So, it’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t.
 
TampaMike19 said:
Chicken or the egg- coaching or Lawrence. I think it’s coaching- they all gotta go. But also partly him. So, it’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t.
Click to expand...
Why can't we ever look at this guy and just admit he isn't very good.. Last year he was not great and some in here were saying he was top 10. Now he is off to an awful start and right away, excuses on why.

Maybe it's time to just say he isn't the guy we thought he was.
 
karl.Racki said:
TampaMike19 said:
Chicken or the egg- coaching or Lawrence. I think it’s coaching- they all gotta go. But also partly him. So, it’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t.
Click to expand...
Why can't we ever look at this guy and just admit he isn't very good.. Last year he was not great and some in here were saying he was top 10. Now he is off to an awful start and right away, excuses on why.

Maybe it's time to just say he isn't the guy we thought he was.
Click to expand...
Right. This guy is seemingly forever getting a pass for the Urban Meyer season.

He's 0-7 in his last 7 games. He has a 10-7 TD/INT ratio, with an 81.9 passer rating during that span. He's nothing special, and a lot closer to Daniel Jones than people want to admit.
 
Prime example of how bad coaching can ruin a career before it even starts.

ETA: I also think he may have never had the mental strength to deal with adversity considering he literally (not figuratively) never faced true adversity on the field prior to becoming a Jaguar.
 
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Chaka said:
dickey moe said:
He's the Dak Prescott of the AFC.
Click to expand...
He averages 11 wins, 67% completions, 4,400 yards, 30 TDs & 11 INT per season?

Wow, he does it so quietly.
Click to expand...
Just for fun I checked:

For his career Lawrence averages 6.5 wins, 63% completion, 4,000 yards, 19 TDs & 13 INT per season.

If we throw out Urban Meyer's 13 game run as... whatever that was he averages: 8 wins, 65% completions, 4,100 yards, 22 TDs & 11 INT

Dak>>>Lawrence
 
Lesson learned, no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. Dominated high school and college, now one of the worst performing QB starters in the league. Hard to believe with his physical traits and previous levels of success.
 
King of the Jungle said:
Lesson learned, no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. Dominated high school and college, now one of the worst performing QB starters in the league. Hard to believe with his physical traits and previous levels of success.
Click to expand...

I made this argument way back when but he didn't dominate in college as much as he should have given the insanely good teams he was on, if he was really that great of a QB.

Compare him to other QBs on stacked teams like that and he was way behind. Consistently a YPA in the 8.x's, 2.3 TDs per game, consistently a QB rating in the 160's, TD % in the 7.X range.

Those actually aren't that great of numbers for college, especially for someone on such a stacked team.

Compare it to someone like Tua who was his peer at the time on a similarly stacked team. Tua a YPA of around 11.0, 2.9 TDs per game, QB rating around 200, TD% over 12. Tua absolutely blew him out of the water statistically despite them playing on similarly stacked teams.

Lawrence was always overrated. Never the stat compiler he should have been which is obviously an important trait for fantasy.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Lawrence was always overrated. Never the stat compiler he should have been which is obviously an important trait for fantasy.
Click to expand...
It's an interesting statement - he could be a very good NFL QB, but not a great FF QB.

Those two things can be equally true.

That said, he could also come out next week and throw for 400 yards and 5 TDs, and successfully compile some stats. Dude is just 24 years old.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
King of the Jungle said:
Lesson learned, no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. Dominated high school and college, now one of the worst performing QB starters in the league. Hard to believe with his physical traits and previous levels of success.
Click to expand...
It's been 2 games into 2024.

Lawrence has been good enough that these fatalistic takes are a bit weird.
Click to expand...
I am not on the side of giving up on him, however I expected him to have more of an impact at this stage of his career.
 
If we throw out their freshman years and compare guys on other stacked teams, you can really see how far behind he was in collegiant statistical output for someone that was allegedly so good and playing on such good teams.

YPA
Kyler - 11.6
Baker - 11.4
Tua - 11.3
Trevor - 9.0

TDs/Game
Tua - 3.2
Baker - 3.0
Kyler - 3.0
Trevor - 2.4

QB Rating
Tua - 206
Kyler - 200
Baker - 190
Trevor - 166

TD%
Tua - 12.5
Kyler - 11.1
Baker - 10.4
Trevor - 7.5

I remember having this discussion back in the day and people wrote it off as him getting pulled in games early because they were so far ahead, etc. But the reality is those other guys had the same thing, and most of these stats are efficiency metrics anyway.

He's always been way behind in terms of statistical output relative to his situation and alleged talent. People just chose not to look.
 
zed2283 said:
FreeBaGeL said:
If we throw out their freshman years and compare guys on other stacked teams, you can really see how far behind he was in collegiant statistical output for someone that was allegedly so good and playing on such good teams.
Click to expand...

You mean the year he QB'd his team to a National Championship?
Click to expand...

That was his worst year statistically (8.3ypa, 7.6 TD%, 157 qb rating, only threw for around 200 yds/game) so it doesn't really change much in the statistics category we're talking about. Those are all pretty below par stats for a QB on a loaded team anyway (of course he was a freshman, so not counting that against him).
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dizzy said:
Kidding of course, and fully agree. It's been long enough mow to see if he's "got it"... he's good... but not great.
Click to expand...
24 years old.

What were you doing at 24?
Click to expand...

I said he's good. And that's better than many. And that's also pretty good.

Has he been "generational talent" great? No.

So OK, you're in the "Not yet, but it's coming" boat... and that's fine. I'm in the "if there was something to see, we would have seen it" boat. That's all.
 
Dizzy said:
So OK, you're in the "Not yet, but it's coming" boat... and that's fine. I'm in the "if there was something to see, we would have seen it" boat. That's all.
Click to expand...
Actually I’m in the “he’s been good. He’s thrown for 4K yards twice in 4 years. Let’s wait and see if the 24 y/o develops” boat.

Like I’ve said in my posts.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dizzy said:
So OK, you're in the "Not yet, but it's coming" boat... and that's fine. I'm in the "if there was something to see, we would have seen it" boat. That's all.
Click to expand...
Actually I’m in the “he’s been good. He’s thrown for 4K yards twice in 4 years. Let’s wait and see if the 24 y/o develops” boat.

Like I’ve said in my posts.
Click to expand...

I see now... I said "he's good" and you're saying "he's been good"... interesting.
 
Just came across an interesting stat:
Every starting QB's total completions thrown at least 15 yards downfield:

10: Trevor Lawrence
9: Brock Purdy, Gardner Minshew
8: Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr
7: CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins
6: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis
5: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix
4: Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones
3: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Bryce Young
2: Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Deshaun Watson
1: Jacoby Brissett
0: Caleb Williams
Click to expand...
 
FreeBaGeL said:
King of the Jungle said:
Lesson learned, no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. Dominated high school and college, now one of the worst performing QB starters in the league. Hard to believe with his physical traits and previous levels of success.
Click to expand...

I made this argument way back when but he didn't dominate in college as much as he should have given the insanely good teams he was on, if he was really that great of a QB.

Compare him to other QBs on stacked teams like that and he was way behind. Consistently a YPA in the 8.x's, 2.3 TDs per game, consistently a QB rating in the 160's, TD % in the 7.X range.

Those actually aren't that great of numbers for college, especially for someone on such a stacked team.

Compare it to someone like Tua who was his peer at the time on a similarly stacked team. Tua a YPA of around 11.0, 2.9 TDs per game, QB rating around 200, TD% over 12. Tua absolutely blew him out of the water statistically despite them playing on similarly stacked teams.

Lawrence was always overrated. Never the stat compiler he should have been which is obviously an important trait for fantasy.
Click to expand...
And Tua sucks too. Let’s be real. But I get it at the college level.

In the Pros neither has won jack ****.

Oh wait….Trevor won a playoff game.

1-0 Trevor over Tua in the Post Season.
 
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