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RB Brian Robinson Jr. - WAS (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
jm192
Footballguy
I may be remembering incorrectly
But didn't they name Robinson the starter before the season started last year because they were disenchanted with Gibson?
I can appreciate that Robinson only had 3.9 ypc, but Gibson had 3.7 with the same situatioin.
Robinson was recoving from a Gun shot wound. I think it's reasonable to think we haven't seen the best versioin of him.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, they did. And then he got shot.
I think Gibson will show this year who is the better back. Too much speed and too much talent. I think Bienemy will use him differently than Rivera has in the past and that he'll live up to billing.
I could also be. . .dead wrong.
Doug B
Footballguy
Going into 2021 (IIRC) ... Gibson was being drafted as a starting FF back, something like RB 12-15. I bought the hype and took him in Summerpalooza here on FBG.
That experience soured me on Gibson pretty badly. Hasn't he had a bunch of chances to take over in Washington, and he just never sticks? What's different going into 2023?
rockaction
Footballguy
Potential usage. His usage before this year was as a two-down back, ceding third downs and four and two minute drills to J.D. McKissic, who absolutely feasted off of those to make himself a viable fantasy start. But last year that began to change (Gibson assumed the McKissic role) and now Bieniemy takes over as OC, and he throws to his backs and he's got Antonio as his receiving back in the McKissic role. Gibson will also get some two-down work one would assume. But mainly, if you're in a PPR or Half PPR league, it's the new style of usage that attracts me to him at his ADP.
I wouldn't necessarily reach for him, though, as it is Rivera still the HC (and he hated when Gibson would put the ball on the ground) and they obviously like Robinson. Robinson, though, has always been a pedestrian-looking back going as far back as Alabama. I just think that when you let horses run, you can see the winner. In this case, I think it's Gibson. Just from the eye test and their measurable qualities.
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FFCollusion
Footballguy
After returning from his gun shots, B.Rob was given 1 week (Wk5) to warm up and be eased in to the offense.
From Week 6 through week 17 he averaged 1/.8/.18 + 18/14/92 = 10PPG
17 week pace: 302/1197/3 + 18/14/92 = 170 Fantasy Points.
Make no mistake, he was not a great RB for fantasy purposes.
But consider this, as far as workload goes.
302 carries would rank 3rd last year.
1197 rushing yards would rank 6th.
170 fantasy points would rank only 25th.
That's the nature of being a zero in the pass game, but his path to volume was very clear last year, and is arguably more clear this year. He's essentially a zero in the passing game, but there's a reason he's RB36 off the board.
If you feel there is any improvement in efficiency and/or TD rate, whether from health, Howell, or natural development, he has an extremely plausible path to RB2 numbers, even without any pass game improvements, and can be had as RB36, in the 8th/9th round.
If you arbitrarily cut the season in half, and isolate only weeks 10-17... his 17 game pace jumps to the following:
335/1403/2.5 + 19/12/128/2.5 or 194 Fantasy Points(RB21) 11.4PPG(RB29)
that would be the 3rd most carries and 4th most rushing yards in the league, for reference.
From Week 6 through week 17 he averaged 1/.8/.18 + 18/14/92 = 10PPG
17 week pace: 302/1197/3 + 18/14/92 = 170 Fantasy Points.
Make no mistake, he was not a great RB for fantasy purposes.
But consider this, as far as workload goes.
302 carries would rank 3rd last year.
1197 rushing yards would rank 6th.
170 fantasy points would rank only 25th.
That's the nature of being a zero in the pass game, but his path to volume was very clear last year, and is arguably more clear this year. He's essentially a zero in the passing game, but there's a reason he's RB36 off the board.
If you feel there is any improvement in efficiency and/or TD rate, whether from health, Howell, or natural development, he has an extremely plausible path to RB2 numbers, even without any pass game improvements, and can be had as RB36, in the 8th/9th round.
If you arbitrarily cut the season in half, and isolate only weeks 10-17... his 17 game pace jumps to the following:
335/1403/2.5 + 19/12/128/2.5 or 194 Fantasy Points(RB21) 11.4PPG(RB29)
that would be the 3rd most carries and 4th most rushing yards in the league, for reference.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not a fan for fantasy, but you laid out a great case. I’m personally one who thinks Gibson deserves more run (don’t own either) and still think they may bring in Hunt, but you’re right about the volume potential being there.
I think he is being slept on. He is the starter. Seems obvious Ron loves him. The question is Bieniemy.
But even that seems a tad more clear for me when Robinson was the starter last week. He also got plenty of carries early on.
Combine that with GL work and I see a guy being drafted as a #3 that could easily be a #2.
But even that seems a tad more clear for me when Robinson was the starter last week. He also got plenty of carries early on.
Combine that with GL work and I see a guy being drafted as a #3 that could easily be a #2.
I think it's the offense that limits his potential. Granted Sam Howell might be a dude, the hell if I know.
But his upside will largely be Touchdown dependent and he's stuck in one of the worst QB situations in the league. Granted, the Redskins get to play the crappy teams too.
Wouldn't be surprised to see him tear up a gutted Cardinals defense, he's plenty talented enough to exploit a weak matchup like this.
But overall, there will be stretches of games where he gives you 13 / 65 / 0 with 0-1 catches sprinkled in. The guy is 225 lbs, he's like a MACK truck on the goal line. But they have to get to the goal line in order for him to punch it in from there.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I’m down due to Mahomes and pecheco under performing. I’m tempted to start robinson over mattison for a desperation play…
Probably playing it safe because it's unknown (for the most part) how they will split the RB work between the original B-Rob and Gibson.
gump
Footballguy
I heard Adam Caplan rank him top 10 and he’s been to a practice.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Gibson had a fumble in the red zone yesterday. Not going to help Gibson carve out a larger role.
Football Jones
Footballguy
This dude is starting to come into his own. I sold Gibson last year because I was all-in on Robinson.
He’s got terrific feet & some speed for a big guy. Got some receiving chops, too. Looks 100% recovered from the gunshot wound now.
Their OL could hold him back, but if Howell is the real deal, BRob could have a nice season.
He’s got terrific feet & some speed for a big guy. Got some receiving chops, too. Looks 100% recovered from the gunshot wound now.
Their OL could hold him back, but if Howell is the real deal, BRob could have a nice season.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I said it in the Gibson thread but I was definitely wrong about Robinson. He looked really good yesterday (and last week).
I was getting some Leveon vibes the way he was kinda stopping then picking his way through the pile before exploding for 10 or 11 yds.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Yeah, he seems to have good vision.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I was wrong. This is the guy. He looked good yesterday whenever I looked up and he was running.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I believe Robinson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. BRob is now looking like he did in college & in training camp before getting shot (the team was raving about him). He’s got the best feet in the league for a big man & is a very tough runner who put up a 4.53 40 at the Combine. Decent pass-catcher, too.
Robinson doesn’t get much help, though. Hopefully, they can get their offense untracked.
Robinson doesn’t get much help, though. Hopefully, they can get their offense untracked.
markrc99
Footballguy
A lot going on thru the mid-section once Robinson sees he needs to get wide. Some sink, loose hips & the ability to contort the body, all starts with the vision. Perhaps could have set up McLaurin's block better & bounced it wide a second time. But the OL stinks, if Rivera is the one responsible or delegated the job to someone else, he's probably going to get fired. Buffalo is in a wide nine set, there's technically only 4 defenders in the box. Off an RPO they double-team the interior DL, the OGs then seep into the 2nd tier to get hats on those ILBs, but the doubles aren't effective. They suck, that's rock bottom right there, basement bucket bonanza! The LT, he holds the OLB/DE just enough to spring Robinson. No. 7 is all over the RPO action & just cuts Jahan Dotson loose. May have been something they caught on tape, when you see Howell in RPO, he's not coming back to the left, you're hot, GO! Can't imagine Robinson having a day vs Philly.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
What do people think of Robinson? This Washington O is so frustrating. Is he an RB2 at best? Likely more of a flex option with his unfortunately low usage?
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I think every skilled position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) is held back by this awful offensive line, and also pretty poor play calling. In dynasty I would hold or try to acquire cheap, but clearly we aren't going to see the best of anyone on this offense the way the line has played and how lopsided and uncreative the play calling has been so far....
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I'm thinking of using one of my two keepers on him. He'd only be a 7th rounder for me next year.
Sure hope he picks it up this season though (Again not really his fault, more poor circumstances as you noted).
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
I grabbed him in the 8th round of my redraft. For me he was supposed to be a RB3/flex to give me some versatility. I liked the value of a starting RB that late who was going to score some TDs. The TDs save him quite a bit, but I can't complain. I've already lost Chubb and Achane so he's been a solid presence as a RB2 for me.
I think Washington should play him more, but obviously I'm biased. This is the Brian Robinson experience: every time Red Zone cuts to Washington, I get annoyed seeing Gibson's useless a$$ in there. Then, when I've forgotten Robinson is even playing, they cut back to the game and Robinson is scoring on a screen pass or a run and making his fantasy score respectable. Washington would be better served leaning on him a little more, but that's not the only thing wrong with this dysfunctional team.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
The lack of creativity has been bad since the Shanahans left. Gruden was vanilla, but nothing is as vanilla as anything Ron does. Arms crossed on sidelines. Press conferences. Draft picks. It's all blah. I thought EB might bring some creativity, and I have no idea if he's tried and can't or what not. They go downfield more often than last year. But if Shanny or McDaniel walk through that door this offense operates better 15 seconds later. Pre snap motion. Better use of Ron's players. etc. They immediately create a better situation for Howell than 2.5 seconds per dropback. In the NFL coaching matters so much. And we don't have a head coach or DC. And might not have an OC but I'm glad EB is here to see what he can do. If nothing, easy to move on.
A new HC and GM will be a good start. Ron's last 3 first round picks ... Jamin Davis, Dotson, Forbes. All were liked but none were projected to go that high. He reaches cause he's smarter than everyone in the room.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
A new HC and GM will be a good start. Ron's last 3 first round picks ... Jamin Davis, Dotson, Forbes. All were liked but none were projected to go that high. He reaches cause he's smarter than everyone in the room.
That's brutal to think about...and true. Although Dotson showed so much last year, I still have no idea what the hell happened with him.
jm192
Footballguy
Thoughts on his long term value in dynasty? I need a RB in a big way. I've got entirely too much value. And I'm trying to figure out who I can land for someone along the lines of Nico Collins.
Robinson's been really solid. Happy with him in the re-draft leagues I have him in. I worry--are the Commanders likely to bring someone else in next year? I guess that's a risk with anyone. I just don't want to trade a solid player for him and then him go the way of Michael Carter.
Robinson's been really solid. Happy with him in the re-draft leagues I have him in. I worry--are the Commanders likely to bring someone else in next year? I guess that's a risk with anyone. I just don't want to trade a solid player for him and then him go the way of Michael Carter.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I just assume they will bring someone else in as soon as Riverboat Ron is replaced at year end. Robinson is meh. Definition of JAG.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
The snap shares, targets and rush share stuff is all kind of a mess. Not really a good offense either. Thankfully (??) at least Chris Rodriguez seems out of the picture last week after WAS seemingly deciding in week 6 and 7 that they wanted a 3 back committee. Unless Chris is nursing an injury-- no idea.
Snaps- Robinson saw a repeat of the 49% from week 7. Gibson picked back up to 51% from a week 7 38%.
Rush share- Robinson back up to 10 carries (83% of RB rush attempts) after week 7 where he accounted for 8 rushes 47% of RB attempts.
Targets- he's been pretty consistently a 2/gm guy with Gibson's pass game usage much less consistent but averaging 3/gm.
So looking ahead- I think you could pencil him in for something like 10-14 rush attempts and 2 targets. Vs Gibson who might be stuck in a 2 carry/ 4 target type of role despite the high snap share.
Neither one has much value at the moment but Robinson seems like a very low end RB2/ more of a flex. Gibson in a ppr league isn't really even a high end flex. Maybe you get lucky and he gets 6 targets and runs one in. Pretty gross overall.
Snaps- Robinson saw a repeat of the 49% from week 7. Gibson picked back up to 51% from a week 7 38%.
Rush share- Robinson back up to 10 carries (83% of RB rush attempts) after week 7 where he accounted for 8 rushes 47% of RB attempts.
Targets- he's been pretty consistently a 2/gm guy with Gibson's pass game usage much less consistent but averaging 3/gm.
So looking ahead- I think you could pencil him in for something like 10-14 rush attempts and 2 targets. Vs Gibson who might be stuck in a 2 carry/ 4 target type of role despite the high snap share.
Neither one has much value at the moment but Robinson seems like a very low end RB2/ more of a flex. Gibson in a ppr league isn't really even a high end flex. Maybe you get lucky and he gets 6 targets and runs one in. Pretty gross overall.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I had him, CMC and JT as my RBs (On top of Mahomes, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, etc) and was 2-8. It's a two keeper league on rounds 3 onwards. Since I couldn't keep CMC, I traded him for Achane (9th round keeper) and Keaton Mitchell.
I always had plans to keep JT and Brian Robinson, but after acquiring Achane for the value of a late rounder, I think I gotta go JT and Achane.
Letting Robinson walk sucks though.... especially as he'd only cost me a 7th rounder next year.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Missed practice again it sounds like. I don't think he plays this weekend.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Selfishly, I hope he sits this week. I don't really need him as my RB2 now that I lucked into Zeke, but I'm worried Rhamondre will return and Zeke will turn back into a pumpkin. So I'd rather have B-Rob rest up and potentially be available when I need him
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Can't start a WAS RB. Low usage rate. EB is pass happy. WAS is #1 in % of plays passing at 66.7%
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Officially declared out
kylechoffman
Footballguy
Gibson worth a start if you are desperate?
