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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
MrJimiT
Footballguy
You actually bring up an interesting subject to wonder about. This kind of "news" can be VERY influential to Vegas and gaming in general, and the influences it "could" have swaying wagering (and odds making). I'd hate to think of behind-the-scenes influencing with the NFL reports and players, but, between the league and Vegas etc., there is a ton of $$ involved...and so it shouldn't really surprise me all that much, I suppose.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Good point, “not alarm bells” about his calf means there’s at least some level of concern. He might have felt something during the start of practice and they instantly pulled him. I want to see a least a limited practice today before I feel better. If he doesn’t practice, it’s a big problem.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
My big money league lives and dies in the hands of CMC.
If he is on IR for the entire season the best analogy I can provide, to how I feel, is "November 18, 1978 - I arrive to Jonestown, Guyana late afternoon and see 918 of my closest "church" friends from The People's Temple. I determine they have all died from cyanide poisoning from drinking the kool-aid. I assess the situation, determine I am a little parched from the trip and sit down to have a glass of kool-aid."
Yup, that is how I am feeling right now. I knew it could be bad news. I knew he had achilles tendinitis. After all the facts were presented to me, I drank the kool-aid.
If he is on IR for the entire season the best analogy I can provide, to how I feel, is "November 18, 1978 - I arrive to Jonestown, Guyana late afternoon and see 918 of my closest "church" friends from The People's Temple. I determine they have all died from cyanide poisoning from drinking the kool-aid. I assess the situation, determine I am a little parched from the trip and sit down to have a glass of kool-aid."
Yup, that is how I am feeling right now. I knew it could be bad news. I knew he had achilles tendinitis. After all the facts were presented to me, I drank the kool-aid.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah I'm not normally a tin foil hat wearer; but when this much money is involved....
I may also be currently influenced to conspiracy theories due to recently reading that news about how Pampers (diaper company) ran the potty training readiness study pushed by pediatricians and early child care professionals as gospel and were pretty much exposed for rigging that study and pushing for it to be a parenting directive just so they could sell diapers to all babies for an extra 8-12 months. Wildly random lol, but also sensitized my internal "do I smell BS?" alarm.
As someone who enjoys gambling, it's really starting to suck the fun out of watching sports for me. I think this will only grow now that Redzone will be showing 15 minutes of gambling ads every hour as they stop doing commercial free football...
Unrelated to CMC, but you should always use your later players in the flex when possible IMO. Early players should lock into their positional slots.
Apropos for a diaper study
A big question I have is how far he falls in drafts today.
I'm in Las Vegas for the NFFC drafts and a bunch are happening today and tomorrow. Will be interesting to see.
I'm in Las Vegas for the NFFC drafts and a bunch are happening today and tomorrow. Will be interesting to see.
Oh yeah, weren't you supposed to call me or something to help with one of those drafts......hahahahaha
the spanker
Footballguy
Whew! This is how I feel right now by not drafting CMC with my first pick.
Deepster
Footballguy
So, I don't think it's a full on five alarm fire of a situation right now.....but it certainly isn't good. Good is he's 100% healthy and has gotten through the preseason ready to go without any news like this.
And yes, I vultured in and got B-Rob out from under the CMC owners nose.....he he.
And yes, I vultured in and got B-Rob out from under the CMC owners nose.....he he.
Similar situation only FFPC and drafting online.
I've checked 5 drafts in that contest that went off after the game and his drop was not as much as you'd think. More a few spots in 4 out of 5 drafts, still a back half round one guy. One draft he fell about a round, to mid second.
It's going to drop a lot more though because I think people hear "limited" and think it can't be that bad but in fact it can and in this case likely means he was 100% fine until the injury occurred in practice. So as we sit here today I think people are clinging to that but my anticipation is we are going to get at minimum a DNP today and possibility ruled out. That's when the major drop will start.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While a truly delightful conspiracy theory, there were actually videos of CMC at camp. Also the local beat writers and the guys on local radio said the same.
Occam’s razor: he has bilateral Achilles tendinitis. It can literally flare up at any time, and from any activity. I’ve said it so many times on here that when I type “bila-“ my autocomplete fills the rest in.
There’s no grand scheme here being manipulated by Vegas puppet masters. CMC is like a car with 4 retreads - you just can’t be at all surprised when one of them blows.
Now that said, he might actually be fine. As a 49er fan I’m hoping against hope that he’s fine.
But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t relieved to have zero shares right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For me nothing changed as I had him as a DND all preseason. I marveled seeing him traded for 1st round pick+ in the offseason, and going as high as 1.02 in $350 NFFC ROC Leagues.
Prediction: For those drafting this weekend in high stakes leagues he’s at least going to fall to mid-second, if not 3rd. As with all things there will be some fearless upside seeker who takes him in the 1st, and I’d bet in at least one league he tumbles to the 4th.
Not all calf injuries are alike. With any other player it would be a concern. With CMC it’s an atomic bomb level alert.
So, there is video of him running routes at full speed from yesterday, no limp, no hesitation, nothing. There is no report saying he left practice, just that he was limited. There is also a CMC quote from the summer, about them "having a plan for me this season" which I take as load management.
Unless we get a DNP today I'm not concerned. If its limited again today, I think he's safe for Sunday.
Unless we get a DNP today I'm not concerned. If its limited again today, I think he's safe for Sunday.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed - today’s practice report is everything. Not just because it’s all we’ll likely get as an update.
Full: everyone acts like it was nothing. Blip on the radar.
Limited: he’s going to drop but not by much. Maybe 1/2 a round.
DNP?
that’s the precipitous nosedive.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Do you have a link to that?
Jennifer Lee Chan on Instagram: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49e
1,916 likes, 44 comments - jenniferleechan on September 4, 2025: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49ersnews...
www.instagram.com
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same - I picked top 3 or bottom 3 all draft season. The one league I drew 1.08 was FBG Bowl 3, where I picked 8. He went 7.
In my home league I pulled the 7th pick and chose the 10th spot (12 & 11 were gone and we do 3RR) - CMC went 1.09
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Respectfully, he’s not running full speed there. And he did look a little hesitant to me. Now that said, I don’t see a limp either, but that clip doesn’t seem definitive.Jennifer Lee Chan on Instagram: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49e
1,916 likes, 44 comments - jenniferleechan on September 4, 2025: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49ersnews...
It looks like a typical practice rep to me.Respectfully, he’s not running full speed there. And he did look a little hesitant to me. Now that said, I don’t see a limp either, but that clip doesn’t seem definitive.Jennifer Lee Chan on Instagram: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49e
1,916 likes, 44 comments - jenniferleechan on September 4, 2025: "Christian McCaffrey showed up on the #49ers practice report as a limited participant in practice due to a calf condition. The ball carrier looked like his normal self during the open portion of practice. #49ers #49ersnews...
This is what I meant.
No offense trav and I appreciate the optimism but I don't think your read on this is right and I think others are making the same mistake.
Fact he was full speed and all good when practice started really does not mean anything other then if he's hurt it happened in practice, this just means he was fine when practice started. What you would not have is beat writers detailing him leaving because by that point of practice they were all kicked out, this is not training camp anymore and they can only watch about the first 20 minutes of practice. But several of them did mention he was not seen in the lockeroom after practice.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It does to me as well - but IMO he’s not running full speed in that clip. CMC is very fast when running at full speed. Not every practice rep is going 100%.
But I agree I didn’t see a limp.
I also agree with @menobrown that he could have been fine up to the point that he wasn’t. That doesn’t invalidate the clip, it just means something might have happened afterwards.
If it tightened up on him after running those routes, and that’s the reported injury, that’s a big concern.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This was me, leading up to MNF, up 2.6 points with my opponent only having 1 marginal player left.
Reports all day that he was trending towards playing. CMC himself said he’d be playing. Everything was great right up until the inactives list came out.
ETA: my opponent’s player scored a whopping 5 points. I would have won in a laugher if CMC played.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
due respect, but consider how many people would have to be involved in such a vast conspiracy.
Think about it for a minute. Start with literally everyone working for the 49ers. All their staff, players, coaches, medical staff, equipment managers, marketing people, etc. I’ve been to a live practice and it’s wild how many people are there. Hundreds. They’d all have to be in on it.
Now get to the media part. Local beat guys like Eric Branch, Matt Barrows, Matt Maiocco, Cam Inman, Grant Cohen, Dave Lombardi - they’d all have to be in on it, too.
We haven’t even gotten to the national press coverage and we’re talking about a conspiracy so grand it makes the mafia look like a game of tiddly winks.
There’s literally no way a significant/season impacting player injury could be concealed for the purposes of shenanigans with futures betting. Someone would talk. If CMC had any sign of injury prior to this report of being limited, it would have come out. Some rando on the street would have videoed CMC limping to his table at a restaurant & splattered it all over social media.
Am I saying sports betting is 100% free of shenanigans? Absolutely not. People get caught tryna pull shady stuff often enough that we can likely assume some do get away with stuff.
But the stuff alleged in this particular conspiracy theory seems not just incredibly unlikely, but outright impossible.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Good thought process here.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
End of round 2
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d say it’s a completely normal reaction because of who he is.
If it were just about any other player in the NFL people wouldn’t be running around like their heads were on fire over 1 report of a calf injury.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Facts.
It's important but not sure it will tell us a whole lot unless he's actually back at practice in even a limited capacity.
Let's say he's DNP, which is my guess, and that's bad news for sure but people are going to interpret that wildly differently. Some people will absolutely freak out and assume it's last year all over again.
Others, like me, will assume in the absence of other information that he's basically starting the same timeline that Achane did about 3 weeks ago and if so will likely miss 2-3 weeks.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Not to mention that the suggestion that the books are the one's behind this is ridiculous if you understand how handicapping/wagering works.
The books are experts at setting and adjusting the lines so that they make money on both sides and a lot of it is dependent on when you place your bets. In addition to setting the line to encourage even action on both sides, they also adjust lines and set wager limits at different times so they maximize the juice they are going to get at each different line movement.
Point is, while shady things do go on with certain individuals, the books are not going through the criminal exposure it would require to pull something like what is suggested off when they are making money hand over fist regardless. It's not worth it.
The greatest scam the books play are pushing parlays and their bonuses that encourage people to disproportionately place bets with the lowest probability of hitting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s pretty much what I see as worst case scenario, because
1. It ambuguous
2. The 49ers are super cagey with injury reporting.
Probably a good approach but honestly no assumption is truly safe. He could miss practice and play on Sunday. He could miss practice, miss Sunday and go on IR-R. The whole spectrum of
Outcomes is left wide open by a DNP + lack of detailed reporting. That’s why even a limited practice would ease a lot of concerns.
If he’s DNP his draft stock should absolutely crater.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Absolutely correct.
Also the fact that the books aren’t some kind of “high table” like in John Wick movies.
Every casino has a book. Every book has a staff. Attributing such a conspiracy to “the books” is alleging that they’re all in cahoots.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
Exactly. Any extra profit made by such a scam would be more than offset by the literal thousands of people that would need to be paid off to keep their mouth shut.
I've spent way too much time diving deep into sports wagering, because I'm a degenerate.
Which leads us back to CMC, why did I gamble on him again this year? Why must I gamble on upside when I didnt need to? Why???? (In Nancy Kerrigan's voice)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
He fell to early 2nd in one draft and I took the bait. No regrets, just a bit gut punching with this noise about injury occurring before the first game. Is what it is, nobody is immune to injury and his upside at that point was worth taking a swing at. At the end of the day, it is just a pretend game so not the end of the world.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
No risk it no biscuit. He's a NO brainer in the late 1st or 2nd. And even more so with the 7.1 pick in a 12 team SF best ball PPR dynasty league where I took him 3 months ago.
And getting Brian Robinson with the 10.12 in that same draft is just gravy right now. 
zamboni
Footballguy
A bannable statement if there ever was one.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
That's encouraging, thanks for posting!
dkp993
Footballguy
In my main league of record, I didn’t target him, but he was a value proposition in our auction. Got him for 48, the rest of the guys in his tier were going 55 to 60. I pounced and pivoted on my initial strategy. Knew there was some risk but assumed it would be deeper in the year and not just prior to game one like last year.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Pretty much the same. Got him for $52 last night, and everybody else going in the $55-60.
I was driving all day, and didn't catch wind of the Thursday practice situation, but I don't think it would have affected my decision.
A risk like this is always assumed with CMC, whether week 1 or later. RIght or wrong, I think it's a risk worth taking.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not me. I only need to touch the toaster once to know it’s hot.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Nick Wagoner:
#49ers will be on the practice field here in about 45 minutes. We'll get a brief look at whether RB Christian McCaffrey is in uniform or not. Then, Kyle Shanahan is scheduled to speak at around 1:35.
#49ers will be on the practice field here in about 45 minutes. We'll get a brief look at whether RB Christian McCaffrey is in uniform or not. Then, Kyle Shanahan is scheduled to speak at around 1:35.
Wingnut
Footballguy
John Chapman:
The thing a lot of people are missing is that the 49ers have had Christian McCaffrey on this exact same pace all training camp! The only difference is as of Wednesday all teams have to report if players miss portions of practice. Nothing has changed from a 49ers perspective.
Now if CMC doesn’t practice today then there is a major issue. We will see!
The thing a lot of people are missing is that the 49ers have had Christian McCaffrey on this exact same pace all training camp! The only difference is as of Wednesday all teams have to report if players miss portions of practice. Nothing has changed from a 49ers perspective.
Now if CMC doesn’t practice today then there is a major issue. We will see!
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x.com
He was going yesterday around pick 5-8. Today falling into early to mid 2nd round.
