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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (3 Viewers)

pantherclub said:
So trade him before he falls apart
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I wouldn’t say that’s a terrible option but I’m not sure it’s a realistic one. What would they get back in return? He’s more than “just a RB” he’s a major part of their offense.

if some one would give them two first round picks, then it would make some sense to take that because if they let Cam go they’re in full rebuild mode - but I can’t see anyone offering that. Would you trade him for one mid to late first? It’s not like that’s any sure thing and you would still be left with a gaping hole on offense.

 
pantherclub said:
I mean, its something I guess but it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.  5 wins.  
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Sitting at home and posting to a forum qualifies as "something I guess".  Getting 1k rushing and 1k receiving in an NFL season is a great accomplishment regardless of team wins.

 
Unless they think they’re close to a playoff team (they’re not), they should kick the tires on trade offers for him. 

 
All this really shows is that it's dumb to have a "Flex" position in the All-Pro awards.

What's next? Two awards for Best Long Snapper ("Punt" and "Field Goals")??

 
-fish- said:

All pro for nonexistent position is stupid.
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Who knows, maybe teams will start differentiating between their "Running Backs" and their "Flex Backs", much in the way teams started to differentiate between the "Halfback" and the "Fullback" all those years ago.
 
Panthers GM Marty Hurney said "obviously we've had internal discussions" with Christian McCaffrey's agent about an extension.

McCaffrey has the final year of his rookie deal coming this season, but the Panthers are 100% going to exercise his fifth-year team option for 2021 next month without a doubt.  As a former top-10 pick, that would be worth the value of the transition tag for running backs.  Kenyan Drake's transition tag with Arizona was worth over $8 million.  The smart move by Carolina would be to have McCaffrey play out this year and avoid a Todd Gurley-type situation by extending him too soon only to regret it.  McCaffrey is a bit different, though, as he doesn't have an injury history and is exponentially more valuable in the receiving game.  Any extension would likely make McCaffrey the highest-paid running back in the league.

SOURCE: Steve Reed on Twitter

Apr 6, 2020, 2:03 PM ET
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Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey is signing a four-year extension, averaging $16 million per year, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history, sources tell ESPN.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 13, 2020

 
Rotoworld take:

Panthers signed RB Christian McCaffrey to a four-year contract extension through 2024. 

Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the deal is worth $16 million per year, making McCaffrey the highest-paid running back in NFL history. It was an inauspicious time for CMC's contract to come due after a recent spate of running back deal mega-busts, but McCaffrey is no ordinary runner, and he is still two months shy of his 24th birthday. He has also never missed a game with injury. That combination of youth, durability and unique skill-set always made McCaffrey more likely to get paid than most. It is surprising the deal was finalized at this moment in time, but the Panthers clearly wanted to make a commitment to their offensive engine as they embark on a reset. McCaffrey is coming off a campaign where he became just the third player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He has averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per reception for his career. Especially considering the absurd amount of passes he catches for a running back, that second number is extra impressive. Even with Cam Newton out and Teddy Bridgewater in, CMC has the strongest claim to No. 1 overall status in 2020. 

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Apr 13, 2020, 4:05 PM ET
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pantherclub said:
Plus look at the last big deals given to RB.  It never works out
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That's part of what I'm going on. They just break down. Is he the sole HoF'er that won't? Maybe. But when you're mitigating probabilities, salary caps, roster stuff, you're generally not betting on a running back to go to age 28 unscathed. 

That said, maybe under the new CBA this is a team-friendly deal? I don't know.

 
If any RB is worth paying, its this one. His work ethic and character are off the charts, he's the only thing the fans have left to cheer for. I think it was a good move. 

 
rockaction said:
That's part of what I'm going on. They just break down. Is he the sole HoF'er that won't? Maybe. But when you're mitigating probabilities, salary caps, roster stuff, you're generally not betting on a running back to go to age 28 unscathed. 

That said, maybe under the new CBA this is a team-friendly deal? I don't know.
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He's only 24 heading into this upcoming season so he'll be 27 for the last year of his deal. Considering that he catches 80-100  balls as well this one doesn't seem all that bad. Garbage WRs like Sammy Watkins makes more than him to catch 1/3 of the balls he does.

 
ffmail4me said:
If any RB is worth paying, its this one. His work ethic and character are off the charts, he's the only thing the fans have left to cheer for. I think it was a good move. 
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That has nothing to do with the argument.  He was under contract for 2 more years.  Hurney gave away the CBA leverage

 
pantherclub said:
That has nothing to do with the argument.  He was under contract for 2 more years.  Hurney gave away the CBA leverage
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His salary next year would have been $8MM (so yes they will be overpaying then) and then they would have needed to lock him up on a long term deal after that, By 2022 and 2023 $16MM for your best offensive player won't look so bad with the cap increases. After that they can let him walk at 28 and test the market.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
His salary next year would have been $8MM (so yes they will be overpaying then) and then they would have needed to lock him up on a long term deal after that, By 2022 and 2023 $16MM for your best offensive player won't look so bad with the cap increases. After that they can let him walk at 28 and test the market.
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It really depends on how they structure this and we clearly don't have all the details but yeah I think this is mostly right.  Take the $10M he's owed for the next two years and add 4 years + $64M and you get 6 years for $74M.  We don't know the full structure but it could look a lot like this on the cap:

2020 - $10M
2021 - $10M
2022 - $13M
2023 - $13M
2024 - $14M
2025 - $14M

That's gonna look like a huge bargain by 2021 with any new cap money that comes in.

 
Hankmoody said:
It really depends on how they structure this and we clearly don't have all the details but yeah I think this is mostly right.  Take the $10M he's owed for the next two years and add 4 years + $64M and you get 6 years for $74M.  We don't know the full structure but it could look a lot like this on the cap:

2020 - $10M
2021 - $10M
2022 - $13M
2023 - $13M
2024 - $14M
2025 - $14M

That's gonna look like a huge bargain by 2021 with any new cap money that comes in.
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That is assuming that McCaffrey maintains his performance. A number of other RBs who recently signed big contracts did not. I am skeptical.

The team had him under contract in 2020 and could have picked up his 5th year option for 2021. Then they could have franchised him in 2022 and, if necessary, 2023. That strategy would have had him under their control through his age 27 season, although it ignores the possible issue of McCaffrey holding out. And, importantly, they would have had outs the last 2 years in this scenario if they wanted/needed them.

Just look at the Gurley situation. The Rams did the same thing, and no one really imagined at that time that Gurley would be out of LA this quickly. Things change rapidly, and locking in like this seems like an unnecessary and foolish decision IMO.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
That is assuming that McCaffrey maintains his performance. A number of other RBs who recently signed big contracts did not. I am skeptical.

The team had him under contract in 2020 and could have picked up his 5th year option for 2021. Then they could have franchised him in 2022 and, if necessary, 2023. That strategy would have had him under their control through his age 27 season, although it ignores the possible issue of McCaffrey holding out. And, importantly, they would have had outs the last 2 years in this scenario if they wanted/needed them.

Just look at the Gurley situation. The Rams did the same thing, and no one really imagined at that time that Gurley would be out of LA this quickly. Things change rapidly, and locking in like this seems like an unnecessary and foolish decision IMO.
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The rookie contract under the CBA was written especially for good/great players like cmac and how it gives the franchise the overall advantage.  We essentially gave away that leverage for whatever reason.  Sure you could argue that he was vastly underpaid but thems the breaks.  The players association agreed to it.   Players in teh first are on 4 year deals with the 5th option.  Why in hell would we not lean into this in creating a roster?  It literally makes no sense.  If he wants to sit out so be it.

 
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Snorkelson said:
A fun read to go back to about page 20 and go up by 10 from there and see the differences in opinion. 
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Here is Greg Cosell talking about him as a rookie prospect, He really likes McCaffrey too but ultimately he says this:

At a rocked-up 202 pounds, he’s not likely to get any bigger. He’s not big enough to be a foundation back in the NFL, like an Ezekiel Elliott. He runs with toughness but he’s not a power back that can shock the box. He’s more of a measured, methodical runner than an explosive runner.
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McCaffrey just had a 403 touch season with Norv Turner. I believe he gained some weight as well. Especially in his bank account.

No one happier about it than Rhythmdoctor I imagine.

 
Biabreakable said:
Here is Greg Cosell talking about him as a rookie prospect, He really likes McCaffrey too but ultimately he says this:

McCaffrey just had a 403 touch season with Norv Turner. I believe he gained some weight as well. Especially in his bank account.

No one happier about it than Rhythmdoctor I imagine.
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Jonathan Stewart and Curtis Samuel will eat into his work! I was a cmc supporter but still drafted Davis in a couple places over him (I drafted some cmc as well) but this thread is a great read for any dynasty player. There are so many ways to overthink things, and in hindsight cmc (and a few others) were way better prospects even when going back to the scouting. Some of the ideas touted by many dynasty players, such as “wrs last longer and are better building blocks for rebuilding franchises” should be ignored. Current depth chart isn’t as big a factor and you can’t assume the any back will be mitigated by as of yet unacquired competition. CMC was going to lose all his goal line carries to jstew/cam, targets to Samuel, and would share the backfield with a big back either thru the draft or FA. Lots of confirmation bias going on. I think a lot of people expected a decent back that would have good total yds and catch some balls, and of course Rythmdoctor was bullish and ultimately gets to brag about this one.

 
Snorkelson said:
Jonathan Stewart and Curtis Samuel will eat into his work! I was a cmc supporter but still drafted Davis in a couple places over him (I drafted some cmc as well) but this thread is a great read for any dynasty player. There are so many ways to overthink things, and in hindsight cmc (and a few others) were way better prospects even when going back to the scouting. Some of the ideas touted by many dynasty players, such as “wrs last longer and are better building blocks for rebuilding franchises” should be ignored. Current depth chart isn’t as big a factor and you can’t assume the any back will be mitigated by as of yet unacquired competition. CMC was going to lose all his goal line carries to jstew/cam, targets to Samuel, and would share the backfield with a big back either thru the draft or FA. Lots of confirmation bias going on. I think a lot of people expected a decent back that would have good total yds and catch some balls, and of course Rythmdoctor was bullish and ultimately gets to brag about this one.
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No one saw back to back 100 receptions seasons as anything but the best case scenario for him.

Its pretty much unheard of. Cosell isn't entirely wrong about McCaffrey either, he struggled running between the tackles a bit his rookie season. It is just the definition of foundation RB that maybe needs some work. CMC still doesn't have a 300 rushing attempt season, not that he needs to when he is catching so many passes.

I had Cook ahead of McCaffrey but in the same tier along with Fournette and Mixon. What a great RB class 2017 was. 7 legit performers from that draft.

 
Biabreakable said:
No one saw back to back 100 receptions seasons as anything but the best case scenario for him.

Its pretty much unheard of. Cosell isn't entirely wrong about McCaffrey either, he struggled running between the tackles a bit his rookie season. It is just the definition of foundation RB that maybe needs some work. CMC still doesn't have a 300 rushing attempt season, not that he needs to when he is catching so many passes.

I had Cook ahead of McCaffrey but in the same tier along with Fournette and Mixon. What a great RB class 2017 was. 7 legit performers from that draft.
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And Corey Davis....I’ll have to go look at my comments in that one and see what i thought I saw

 
Biabreakable said:
Here is Greg Cosell talking about him as a rookie prospect, He really likes McCaffrey too but ultimately he says this:

McCaffrey just had a 403 touch season with Norv Turner. I believe he gained some weight as well. Especially in his bank account.

No one happier about it than Rhythmdoctor I imagine.
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The game passed Greg Cosell by a few years ago.

 
I was wrong about him and Kamara regressing to the mean on RB receptions. It didn't stop me from trying to acquire both of them these past few years although I couldn't ever pry them away from their owners.

 
Snorkelson said:
A fun read to go back to about page 20 and go up by 10 from there and see the differences in opinion. 
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I did not go back and look but I had a few months during the offseason between his rookie and second year I was negative on him. Felt like he was a subpar runner,  could not get over fact he only averaged 3.43 fantasy points as a runner. Obviously knew his value was more as a receiver but you want a little bit of both. At one point during that offseason I labeled him the bust of the year for 2018 because I thought he was a second round redraft pick who would return more like 4th round returns.  Saw him as more or less a 15'ish PPG game if things broke well. But calling him a bust in 2018 is quite possibly the worst take I've ever had here.

I'll own that but only thing I can say in my defense is I changed my opinion before the season. At first I thought it was BS when Rivera said they were going to increase his workload and make him a 20-25 touch RB. I finally started seeing and hearing enough signs that it was true and jumped back on him around mid August, but cost me dearly in a few places.

 
menobrown said:
I did not go back and look but I had a few months during the offseason between his rookie and second year I was negative on him. Felt like he was a subpar runner,  could not get over fact he only averaged 3.43 fantasy points as a runner. Obviously knew his value was more as a receiver but you want a little bit of both. At one point during that offseason I labeled him the bust of the year for 2018 because I thought he was a second round redraft pick who would return more like 4th round returns.  Saw him as more or less a 15'ish PPG game if things broke well. But calling him a bust in 2018 is quite possibly the worst take I've ever had here.

I'll own that but only thing I can say in my defense is I changed my opinion before the season. At first I thought it was BS when Rivera said they were going to increase his workload and make him a 20-25 touch RB. I finally started seeing and hearing enough signs that it was true and jumped back on him around mid August, but cost me dearly in a few places.
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You weren’t afraid to take a stance, and that’s commendable and a lot more than a lot of people do here. I liked Michael Floyd a lot at some point, and I was wrong. But I, and you, were willing to put what you thought down for future scrutiny, and that is respectable. 

 
Speaking Tuesday, new Panthers coach Matt Rhule said he wanted to avoid having Christian McCaffrey on the field for every snap. 

Per The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue, Rhule believes "effectively using McCaffrey as a weapon does not mean leaving him on the field the entire game." McCaffrey played 1,039 snaps last season, which is practically unheard of in this day and age. It was 102 more than runner up Ezekiel Elliott. CMC also led running backs in snaps by a wide margin in 2018. Despite Rhule's good intentions, ex-coach Ron Rivera said the same thing last offseason. Part of what makes CMC so unique is his ability to gobble up snaps while providing high-quality touches as both a runner and receiver. Believe his usage will change when you see it. Even if it does, he remains best positioned to be fantasy's No. 1 overall player.  

SOURCE: Jourdan Rodrigue on Twitter 

Apr 14, 2020, 5:48 PM ET
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Christian McCaffrey's four-year extension is worth $30.1 million fully guaranteed at signing. 

Another $8.1 million becomes guaranteed next March, meaning for all intents and purposes CMC is guaranteed $38.2 million. This is the long way of saying he has indeed become the highest-paid running back in football. Any regular reader of this website or football Twitter knows running backs are not the best allocation of resources for modern football teams, but CMC's youth and unique skill-set coupled with the Panthers' minor outlay at quarterback makes it far from egregious. 

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com 

Apr 16, 2020, 11:08 PM ET
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hispeedthinmint said:
I asked the CMC owner in my dynasty PPR league what he would want for him & he sent me an offer of his Goff & CMC for my Daniel Jones (I actually traded Goff to him last season straight up for Jones lol), D. Henry & Barkley. I'm quite sure his valuation of CMC is insanely high if that's what he wants...
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Actually its not insanely high at all. He's the best RB in FF in a league by himself. No hopefully Barkley has a huge bounce back and they end up in the same tier but right now he's absolutely in bounds asking for that kind of return IMO. 

 
Larry Centers and others caught tons of passes and the offense was ....different. Many teams (where their back was an awesome receiver) did NOT have much success until they had more traditional balance. 

Could the Panthers be using McCaffrey too much?

 
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