Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
These things contradict each other a bit. Getting hurt "a lot" is not great for fantasy. Now some injuries are not predictive but his overuse as a smaller back is the issue.
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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I assumed he's asking about re-draft because I do not think anyone would take CMc at #1 overall in a dynasty start up.
No, I don't think it's going to be particularly close in PPG. CMC's floor ever since his rookie year is higher then Taylor's ceiling.
CMC's had some injuries but it's not like he's had some major surgery. Crazy thing in his first 3 years he not only did not miss a single game but not sure he even appeared on so much as an injury report, his health was what I considered one of his positives. Sometimes it's just bad luck, I don't at all buy the size being an issue. Maybe that bad luck is on Taylor next year especially coming off his huge workload. Who knows on this stuff especially again when we don't have major surgeries involved? These these things change, but I feel supremely confident CMC will outscore him if both of their health situations hold up and I feel a lot better predicting performance then injury.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Will you feel the same in 2023 if he gets hurt 3 years in a row?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Not really I just don't think you have watched him much over the past couple of years. He isn't small, he is short. Plus these aren't injuries from taking massive hits. They have been kind of flukey like Kenaan Allen his first few years.
Here is a link to his injury history. Only the shoulder injury was due to contact. The others were high ankle sprains and some soft tissue/non contact.
Christian McCaffrey - Injury History
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Huh?
D'Onta Foreman had hundred yard rushing games vs NE, PIT, and MIA in 2021. Not elite defenses vs the run, but not bad. He's the same age as CMC and now 4 years removed from his achilles injury. He was 6 of 6 in "and one" carries. Any chance he eats into CMC's carries, especially around the GL? And could be a decent early down back if CMC misses time?
Chaka
Footballguy
Hubbard is still a bit of an unknown but I do see Foreman taking some goal line touches no matter what. He's a big dude.
In his career, he has averaged 6.2 catches per game. That's more than Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, Adams, Lamb, Samuel, Higgins, Hill, and Evans (I just looked at the 10 highest priced WR's in the subscriber contest for this list). Also, you have his catch percentage at 64.3%, when his lifetime average is 81.3%. I'm sorry, but your numbers are way off base. 45 catches in a season for a healthy CMC is like 200 rushes for a healthy Derrick Henry - it's insane.
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
2020: High ankle sprain, grade 3 (6 wks), shoulder sprain (4 wks), glute strain (4 wks)
2021: hamstring strain, grade 2 (5 wks), ankle sprain, grade 2 (6 wks)
The injuries themselves could be wear and tear, bad luck, or poor training. The time missed could be inflated due to Carolina being awful both seasons and no reason to rush him back. I believe I saw somewhere that the 2 ankle sprains were different ankles which is a positive.
I am hesitant to take him after being burned 2 years in a row but I am also stubborn and will probably make an honest effort to get him in our auction. Panthers should be a better team playing in a worse/more competitive division, so if he does get nicked up they may not end his season as quickly as they did the last 2 seasons. And bad luck can't strike thrice, right?
I don't want to turn this into an Assistant Coach thread, but is anyone targeting McCaffrey if they already have a top 5 RB as a keeper? (if too off topic I can edit)
Football Jones
Footballguy
Agreed. I’m a gambler & often take a chance on guys, but geez, no way I could take CMC with one of the first few picks.
What is a fair price for CMC in an auction in your eyes? 60s?
If there was any confusion, I am sorry. The question only related to a redraft league. CMC should not even be in the discussion as the overall #1pick in a startup.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I'm rolling the dice again. He checks all the boxes for me
In PPR I've got CMC #1 overall. Non-PPR #2 overall.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hypothetical: you talked yourself into drafting CMC 1.01 last year & got burned.
You lamented over it. You knew the risk. “He can’t get hurt two years in a row - it’s a fluke injury.”
Fast forward to this year. You’ve talked yourself into taking CMC 1.02 - surely those fluke injuries can’t hit a 3rd year in a row.
CMC limps off game 4, MRI confirms: high ankle, 6-8 weeks.
Your reaction: _____________________________
You lamented over it. You knew the risk. “He can’t get hurt two years in a row - it’s a fluke injury.”
Fast forward to this year. You’ve talked yourself into taking CMC 1.02 - surely those fluke injuries can’t hit a 3rd year in a row.
CMC limps off game 4, MRI confirms: high ankle, 6-8 weeks.
Your reaction: _____________________________
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I said almost exactly this last year.
I'm gonna kill HSG for jinxing him!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I can’t shake the feeling.
That hypothetical was literally me last year.
I might commit seppuku if I did it again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But then he got hurt 2021 as well.
There’s talk of Foreman being the GL back. What does that do for CMC’s ceiling, hypothetically speaking?
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Agreed, 2019 was amazing. If you took away all his catches, receiving yards, and receiving TD's, he still would've been RB15. And if you took away all his rush yards and rushing TD's, he would've been WR12.
Nero
Footballguy
I think his ceiling is still a top 5 RB with #1 potential. Ekeler was able to finish RB4 with Gordon on the team and only 3 rushing TD's in 2019.
say what?
Just because it went badly, doesn't mean it was wrong.
To answer your hypothetical, I'd just say, welp, that sucks, and it would be that. It wouldn't change my thinking at all. It could just as easily be Taylor who gets hurt, just like it was just as easily Henry a year ago.
Side note, I think one of the biggest mistakes an owner can make is playing scared, especially at RB. Half the league is gonna get hurt at that position at some point. Just looking at last year's high picks: CMC, Cook, Henry, Kamara, A.Jones, Chubb, Barkley all missed 3 or more games. Even a guy like Zeke, who didn't miss games, probably should have, and was a lot less effective playing through injury.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Autocorrect gone wild!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Would you spend a top 2 pick on him again in 2023 after being burned twice in a row?
CMC’s overall build worries me. He has a lot of miles on a small frame.
That was the narrative I poo poo’d last year when I threw caution to the wind at 1.01
As for JT, he’s been remarkably healthy, dating back to college. If I were placing a bet on who’d get hurt between CMC & JT, JT wouldn’t be my pony.
I am not playing scared. I’m playing with a reasonable fear of spending a top 2 pick on a dude who’s missed significant time the last 2 seasons. There’s a big difference.
Yes, I 100% would take him in the top-2. I don't think a player burning me before is relevant.
Derrick Henry was the healthiest guy in the world until he missed over half of last season. No reason that won't be Taylor this year. RB is such a position of attrition, that if you avoid guys with injury histories you end picking from a list of like 8 guys. Hell, Ekeler, Mixon, and Conner were all top-5 RBs last year, and all of them missed significant time in 2020.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But you wouldn't spend a top 3 pick on Derrick Henry this year, right? Why not? Age & mileage?
CMC is slight of build compared to Henry. CMC had a ton of touches. CMC is now showing signs of wear with soft tissue injuries 2 years in a row. I've read a lot about RBs and workloads over the years. Some see CMC as confirmation that a huge workload can result in these types of injuries. Why would being a year older help him?
I'm just sayin - I understand taking a risk on a player, but let's not pretend it isn't a risk, or act like those not willing to take said risk are "playing scared".
You personally have zero caution about taking him. I have already passed on him in 2 leagues. I might regret that if he is indeed the RB1 or overall #1 FF player. But it's a gamble I'm not willing to take.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again, it's not about being burned by the player. It's about looking at what's caused the player to burn you & determining the likelihood of recurrence.
Chaka
Footballguy
Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga
Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga
Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga
Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga
[Verse 1: With "Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga"s]
I can't stop this feelin' deep inside of me
CMac, you just don't realize what you do to me
When you tempt me with a high draft slot
You you convince me everything's alright
[Chorus]
I-I-I-I'm hooked on a feelin'
I'm high on believin'
That you will carry my team
[Verse 2]
Moves as smooth as butter, as you run in for a score
CMac, you got me thirsty for just one, or two more
Got a bug from you, Bro, but I don't need no cure
I'll just stay a victim if you can bring me more
[Refrain]
All the good runs when you're on the one
Keep it up, Bro, yeah, you take it home
[Chorus]
I-I-I-I'm hooked on a feelin'
I'm high on believin'
That you will carry my team
[Refrain: With "Ooga-Chaka, Ooga-Ooga"s]
All the good runs when you're on the one
Keep it up, Bro, yeah, you take it home
[Chorus]
I-I-I-I'm hooked on a feelin'
I'm high on believin'
That you will carry my team
I'm hooked on a feelin'
And i'm high on believin'
That you will carry my team
I said I'm hooked on a feelin'
And I'm high on believin'
That you will carry my team
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Funny enough, I actually do have Henry #3 overall. He's got the highest ceiling of any RB in my opinion, as the guy most likely to see 400+ touches.
But yes, I understand that you think CMC is a risk, and I don't.
Nero
Footballguy
I don't think 350+ is realistic given his injury history.
The Charger RB's had 346 carries and a 101 receptions last year. Ekeler had 206 of those carries and 70 receptions and finished RB3 in PPG.
Panther RB's had 337 carries and 102 receptions last year. The math is rough, but CMC on got about 63% of the carries in the games he played last year. In his historic year, CMC got 93% of the carries. That usage rate is not happening again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just don't understand how anyone wouldn't consider him a risk considering the last 2 seasons and his massive workload prior to that.
Cautious optimism? Sure. But zero risk? Wow.
I think that is a little misleading, as he got hurt in the 2nd quarter in 2 games, where he was seeing the overwhelming majority of touches. 7 of 8 RB touches in the Houston game, and 10 of 11 RB touches in the Miami game before injury.
Correcting for that and its 70% of the RB touches, and that is with one game, where they blew out the Colt McCoy led Cards, and got pulled in the 3rd quarter. 13 carries happened after that, I'm not expecting too many Panthers blowouts.
I think 75% of the RB work is my expectation.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe this is both the problem and the explanation.
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
I spent $60 on him in 2020, kept him for $70 in 2021, cut him loose this year because it would have cost $80 to keep. I am considering going up to $60-$65 for him in our auction next week. The top 3 RBs usually go for $60-$75 in our league because half the RB1s are kept by others so their supply is very low. In a non keeper auction I would guess he would go for $60-$70 depending on the league tendencies. I could also see his auction value dropping into the $50s because of injury concerns. He would make a sneaky opening nomination if someone was sold on him and wanted to get him at a discount.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What’s your total budget?
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I tend to gravitate towards the back ends of our drafts if possible. We start 3WRs, so I often go WR-WR in those leagues.
(In 1-2 leagues we have a lottery and pick our draft spots)
I am in other leagues though, that are "randomized" just prior to the draft, so I never know quite where I am going to get until right before the draft.
If I happen to go off #1 anywhere, I am seriously debating on someone else other than Taylor. With all the recent coach commentary about workload reduction, only a goose would think he is likely to repeat as #1 RB in fantasy. (since that very rarely happens ANYWAY)
So if you aren't going with the consensus #1 RB, then who do you go with? You can pretty much pick your poison with another top 4-5 RBs, and CMC has as much upside as any, IF he is healthy that is.
There is a noticeable lack of news stories about CMC coming out of camp though, thats a bit of a concern to me.
I just may go CMC if I happen to draw #1 anywhere, but that's a longshot for me to get #1 in any event. So I can't fault you if you DO* go CMC first.
Well @xenon mentioned if anyone was debating going CMC #1 overall upthread ^^.
I spelled out my thoughts on it, -HOWEVER- just last night we determined our draft order . In this (essentially my biggest $$$ league) we pull names at random, then choose your draft SLOT .
I had never been 1st in this league all these years, and I always opted to go back to the end of the order.
Well, sure enough, I was pulled "#2", and a buddy that was pulled for the #1 pick, promptly tells everyone he is dropping to #2.
So now I have either slot #1 , or #3 - #12 .
For he first time ever in this league I chose the #1 slot.
I have said several times I am not touching Jonathan Taylor, so now I get to take my choice of anyone in said league.
Barring anything unforeseen, or some last minute injury news, I'm putting my money where my mouth is and I'm now likely taking CMC #1 overall.
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT - Feel free to avoid CMC in your drafts. I have a lengthy history of losing my RB1s to injury over the years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Out of curiosity, why won’t you touch Taylor?
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I have no qualms with Taylor personally........ (or any of the top 5-6 pick your poison RBs)
However, historically RB1s virtually almost never repeat as RB1 the next year.
Plus, I'm pretty sure the Colts coaching staff has just recently expressed cutting back JT's workload, or "conserving him for a playoff run". Obviously that could be just coach talk, but all factors considered I think I'd just prefer to gamble on CMC if I'm going early.
I know there's injury issues and concerns, but the same thing can be said about Ekeler, Henry, Zeke, Cook or virtually anyone.
I figure if I'm going to gamble, I'm going to gamble on the highest upside in all of fantasy. If I hit a lottery ticket, its going to be a big one.
However, historically RB1s virtually almost never repeat as RB1 the next year.
Plus, I'm pretty sure the Colts coaching staff has just recently expressed cutting back JT's workload, or "conserving him for a playoff run". Obviously that could be just coach talk, but all factors considered I think I'd just prefer to gamble on CMC if I'm going early.
I know there's injury issues and concerns, but the same thing can be said about Ekeler, Henry, Zeke, Cook or virtually anyone.
I figure if I'm going to gamble, I'm going to gamble on the highest upside in all of fantasy. If I hit a lottery ticket, its going to be a big one.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All fair points.
I’ve read similarly that CAR may cut back on CMC’s workload, and possibly use Foreman at the stripe.
That, to me, would tip the scales back to JT.
As for the 1 not finishing as the 1 the next year, I fondly recall taking Tomlinson a couple years running with very good results, but that was some time ago.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Well sure there are exceptions to every rule, I'm just noting it rarely happens. I haven't really looked back to check, but I can't imagine it happening more than 5-8 times in the last 30-40 years.
Hell, I remember boldly proclaiming on this board (I'm sure you can find it if you dig around here somewhere) how high I was on JULIO JONES one year in particular. As luck would have it, all my drafts I was in positions as to where I never got him. I got sniped multiple times, it was irritating. I'm definitely a believer in getting "your guy".
I had one final 10 teamer that was slated to draft right before the season started, and I said point blank here on the board "I don't care if I get the #1 overall in this league, I will take Julio Jones number one overall ". And thats exactly what I did, and all my league mates laughed. But that just happened to be the year he put up near 1,900 yards, it may have been 2015. (and I went on to win that league that season, Jones definitely helped)
I probably wouldn't pull a similar maneuver year in and year out, but I do believe in getting your guy, within reason. That was the extreme though.
Fluky things happen.....like my Julio Jones example, but year in and year out the RB1 doesn't repeat the following season.
But like I said, theres usually multiple reasons I stay away from certain players, and its no different for Taylor for me, this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
so if you took Taylor No. 1 and he finished 4th would you be disappointed?
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I would not be disappointed. But I wouldn't be disappointed to draft anyone #1 and they finished top 4-ish.
I just have never been one to automatically assume the RB1 from a prior year is automatically accepted as the top RB the following year and should be drafted as such. Don't get me wrong, everyone "agrees" he is the universal #1 pick, but thats never been anything more than a starting point for me, and I try and make my own judgement calls from there. Like any choice to pick up a player in fantasy, sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn't. I prefer to draft the guys who I like, in situations I like and it may or may not be the guys that others agree on.
As far as "finishing 4th" , I think we could both name a number of backs who have similar probability of finishing top 5-ish or so.
It wouldn't surprise me if Ekeler, Henry, Kamara, Zeke, Jones , Cook, or even several others, ANY you could make an argument for to finish top 4-5. (Err, I think Zeke is the least likely to actually finish that high though, he just looked spent at times last year.......I think the workload and injuries are just starting to take their toll on him.)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t think anyone does this.
